StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Bosintang]

In terms of real world performance, the switch exceeded the PS3 and XB360 both in handheld and docked, by a margin sufficient to make games that weren't possible on last generation hardware possible.
The new machine releasing in 2024 (March), as I expect it, would mean a timing similar to that of the Switch 1. Reaching PS4 level of real world performance in portable mode would actually be a slight disappointment. I'm confident that the better CPU and tricks such as DLSS will allow to do better.

 

[Mobius]

The new machine releasing in 2024 (March), as I expect it

is there anything I missed that gave a hint for March 2024 or is that just pure speculation?
If the latter, I really doubt the month can even be predicted at this point.

 

[Blue Monty]

Wasn’t NX supossed to release in late 2016 but got delayed to early 2017 and that’s why it released on March? I wouldn’t expect a March release in general just because Switch released that month

 

[Skittzo]

Wasn’t NX supossed to release in late 2016 but got delayed to early 2017 and that’s why it released on March? I wouldn’t expect a March release in general just because Switch released that month

Yeah they don't want to release in Q4 if they can help it. There's a reason why everyone always attempts to release in Q3, even the 3DS was supposedly delayed from a Q3 launch.

 

[Bosintang]

is there anything I missed that gave a hint for March 2024 or is that just pure speculation?
If the latter, I really doubt the month can even be predicted at this point.

We have no idea when this new machine will release. Those claiming otherwise are liars. March 2024, or possibly late 2023, are just my own guess; some are guessing it will be earlier.

The decision to release a console within a certain timeframe was probably made years ago; I would think around 2019 or 2020. At that time, it was clear that the Switch would continue being an incredible success, so I figure that Nintendo wasn't in a rush to release a new console and late 2023/early 2024 is the sweet spot to both milk the current console without boring too much their audience.

 

[Vantell]

Haven't spent anytime on this topic. But I wasn't the new code name Dane? Or did it change to Drake? Or are these two different systems?

 

[Mobius]

Haven't spent anytime on this topic. But I wasn't the new code name Dane? Or did it change to Drake? Or are these two different systems?

Originally named Drake, it changed to Dane later. iirc the difference is the node. (I could be wrong, but I think I remember reading this here)

There are also a few references to "Drake" in the Nvidia leak for that same device. (also iirc)

 

[Skittzo]

Haven't spent anytime on this topic. But I wasn't the new code name Dane? Or did it change to Drake? Or are these two different systems?

Originally named Drake, it changed to Dane later. iirc the difference is the node. (I could be wrong, but I think I remember reading this here)

There are also a few references to "Drake" in the Nvidia leak for that same device. (also iirc)

This is backwards and possiblely inaccurate.

An Nvidia leaker in 2021 told us the code name was Dane, the Nvidia hack from earlier this year showed that the only device tied to the NVN2 API was code named Drake, not Dane. Dane showed up in a banned word list which suggests either it was a code name at one point or Nvidia's programmers were aware that it was leaked as a potential code name for a chip of theirs so they added it to be safe.

We have zero indication of any change happening behind the scenes, and zero indication of whether Dane ever actually existed. Kopite, the Nvidia leaker, suggested that he simply got the code name wrong.

 

[Mobius]

This is backwards

oops yeah just noticed the mistake

 

[Deleted member 887]

is there anything I missed that gave a hint for March 2024 or is that just pure speculation?
If the latter, I really doubt the month can even be predicted at this point.

We have no idea when this new machine will release. Those claiming otherwise are liars.

That is a pretty extreme statement. I would say we definitely have vague ideas, and I don't think that stating so makes me a liar

But a system capable of handling 4K games isn’t expected to be released until late next year at the earliest [...] Developers declined to speculate on Nintendo’s plans for another console but said they expect to release their 4K Switch games during or after the second half of next year.

Which says that Nintendo was at least shooting for an H2 2022 date, but that most folks seemed aware that was ambitious. Working backwards, there isn't an obvious indication of a roadblock there, with Orin on schedule, and the March job postings by Nintendo.

Again, no one has a date, but it's not "no idea" either.

 

[YolkFolk]

Wasn’t NX supossed to release in late 2016 but got delayed to early 2017 and that’s why it released on March? I wouldn’t expect a March release in general just because Switch released that month

Might be when Zelda is ready to launch with it

 

[Bosintang]

That is a pretty extreme statement. I would say we definitely have vague ideas, and I don't think that stating so makes me a liar


Which says that Nintendo was at least shooting for an H2 2022 date, but that most folks seemed aware that was ambitious. Working backwards, there isn't an obvious indication of a roadblock there, with Orin on schedule, and the March job postings by Nintendo.

Again, no one has a date, but it's not "no idea" either.

You're free to make assumptions and hypothesis, like I do. But there are arguments for a release from end of 2022 to end of 2024 or even early 2025, so anyone being assertive of a specific date when the range of possibilities is over 2 years would be either lying or delusional. The only solid information which we currently have is from the hack which only tells us that Nintendo is indeed working on a more powerful machine; not really a surprise when the switch is more than 5 years old.
The rest is a mix of rumors, attention seeking Twitter enjoyers and mixed-up information.

 

[Skittzo]

You're free to make assumptions and hypothesis, like I do. But there are arguments for a release from end of 2022 to end of 2024 or even early 2025, so anyone being assertive of a specific date when the range of possibilities is over 2 years would be either lying or delusional. The only solid information which we currently have is from the hack which only tells us that Nintendo is indeed working on a more powerful machine; not really a surprise when the switch is more than 5 years old.
The rest is a mix of rumors, attention seeking Twitter enjoyers and mixed-up information.

That quoted blurb is from Bloomberg. Call it a rumor if you want, but it's vetted and certified information from a developer source. Not assumptions or hypotheses.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

2024 and 2025 are a meme that people want to happen.

 

[Raccoon]

2027

TEN-YEAR NINTENDO SWITCH DYNASTY

 

[Mobius]

2024 and 2025 are a meme that people want to happen.

Not a meme, Nintendo clearly want to launch that thing alongside GTA6

 

[Bosintang]

That quoted blurb is from Bloomberg. Call it a rumor if you want, but it's vetted and certified information from a developer source. Not assumptions or hypotheses.

Bloomberg are exactly those I'm referring to when I mention mixed up information, and who declared that a more powerful switch was imminent last year. Then, a few clout chasers, who should have been discredited a long time ago, came out of the woods saying their "sources" heard the same.
We know the rest.

It's not the first time something like that happens; remember how Metroid prime trilogy was almost done and ready to be presented in December 2019? How Call of Duty was supposed to release on Switch?
Etc. Etc.

I can already see people using the "plans must have changed" excuse if no new console releases by spring next year. In my opinion, people just don't really know what Nintendo's plans are, and that's fine. We can all make assumptions, and mine is that the new console is about 16-20 months away from today.

 

[Skittzo]

Bloomberg are exactly those I'm referring to when I mention mixed up information, and who declared that a more powerful switch was imminent last year. Then, a few clout chasers, who should have been discredited a long time ago, came out of the woods saying their "sources" heard the same.
We know the rest.

It's not the first time something like that happens; remember how Metroid prime trilogy was almost done and ready to be presented in December 2019? How Call of Duty was supposed to release on Switch?
Etc. Etc.

I can already see people using the "plans must have changed" excuse if no new console releases by spring next year. In my opinion, people just don't really know what Nintendo's plans are, and that's fine. We can all make assumptions, and mine is that the new console is about 16-20 months away from today.

Bloomberg's information from sources has never been proven wrong. In fact, everything they reported as coming from sources (production sources and developer sources) has been proven to be 100% accurate.

What was wrong was Takashi Mochizuki's interpretation of that information. He saw reports from developer sources that a 4k devkit was available, and saw reports from production sources that a new model was being produced. He took both of those reports to mean they were referring to the same product, which of course we know is wrong.

That does not implicate any of those sources as being inaccurate though. And it was those sources who stated that the expected timeline for launching this 4k model was late 2022 at the earliest.


This is not mixed up information, it is very plainly understandable. Whether you believe it is up to you but there is no reason to doubt its veracity in that it came from a developer who has some knowledge about this product.

 

[kimbo99]

Is this confirmation that it's now taped out?


Jokes aside, that Nvidia leak has been our biggest item for some time. I'm wondering when we will get more leaks.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Is this confirmation that it's now taped out?

Maybe .

No but on a more serious off-topic note, I hope it’s one that doesn’t feel like it’ll be overplayed by socials in like a week or two.

Not a meme, Nintendo clearly want to launch that thing alongside GTA6

But that doesn’t come out until 2029

2027

TEN-YEAR NINTENDO SWITCH DYNASTY

Next Switch in 2029*! GTA6 combo.

 

[Bosintang]

What was wrong was Takashi Mochizuki's interpretation of that information. He saw reports from developer sources that a 4k devkit was available, and saw reports from production sources that a new model was being produced. He took both of those reports to mean they were referring to the same product, which of course we know is wrong.

[...]

This is not mixed up information, it is very plainly understandable.

So he mixed up sources about people developing games for a 4K device with other sources saying that a new model was releasing soon (which ended up being the OLED), but that's somehow not a mix up of information. Ok mate, whatever floats your boat.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

We can all make assumptions, and mine is that the new console is about 16-20 months away from today.

What chip, that is derived from an existing chip, goes into development for 4 to nearly 5 years

 

[Skittzo]

So he mixed up sources about people developing games for a 4K device with other sources saying that a new model was releasing soon (which ended up being the OLED), but that's somehow not a mix up of information. Ok mate, whatever floats your boat.

That a developer is expecting the console they are developing for to release in late 2022 at the earliest is not mixed up information.

Which is what my post quite clearly says, if you had bothered to read it.

 

[Bosintang]

Which is what my post quite clearly says, if you had bothered to read it.

You really want to be the kind of people who gets aggressive on the internet for something as trivial as the release date of a game console?

Bloomberg said that the console was slated for 2021. It wasn't. The OLED was, and nobody predicted it. That's mixed up info.
I'm done for today, don't worry. And don't get upset, it's not worth it.

 

[SiG]

Is this confirmation that it's now taped out?


Jokes aside, that Nvidia leak has been our biggest item for some time. I'm wondering when we will get more leaks.

"You used to call me on my Mariko...back when I had been taped out..."

Sorry, just thinking it was about time we changed the obtuse subtitle of this thread. "Dane" is dead.

 

[TinyPikachu]

… So… Any new rumors or leaks happen in the last few weeks? I kinda stopped checking this thread after a few months

 

[bixente]

… So… Any new rumors or leaks happen in the last few weeks? I kinda stopped checking this thread after a few months

No.

 

[Vantell]

This is backwards and possiblely inaccurate.

An Nvidia leaker in 2021 told us the code name was Dane, the Nvidia hack from earlier this year showed that the only device tied to the NVN2 API was code named Drake, not Dane. Dane showed up in a banned word list which suggests either it was a code name at one point or Nvidia's programmers were aware that it was leaked as a potential code name for a chip of theirs so they added it to be safe.

We have zero indication of any change happening behind the scenes, and zero indication of whether Dane ever actually existed. Kopite, the Nvidia leaker, suggested that he simply got the code name wrong.

Originally named Drake, it changed to Dane later. iirc the difference is the node. (I could be wrong, but I think I remember reading this here)

There are also a few references to "Drake" in the Nvidia leak for that same device. (also iirc)

Thanks both . That helps

 

[mariodk18]

2024 and 2025 are a meme that people want to happen.

Thank you, I’ve been saying this ever since that random analyst “predicted” 2024 for Switch 4K.

Honestly, it feels like some Nintendo fans are afraid of being optimistic. Which I don’t entirely blame them for, given the last 18 years of Nintendo hardware.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Thank you, I’ve been saying this ever since that random analyst “predicted” 2024 for Switch 4K.

Honestly, it feels like some Nintendo fans are afraid of being optimistic. Which I don’t entirely blame them for, given the last 18 years of Nintendo hardware.

a lot of folks just straight jumped into illogical arguments as an overcorrection I feel.

 

[Look over there]

I'm not saying that it's a lock, but Nvidia gives me the impression that if they're designing something utilizing a 2020 architecture (Ampere) as a base and utilizing a version of CUDA that's 2022-ish (a minor version in between Orin which is definitely this year and Ada Lovelace which is suspected to be this year), they probably have intent to get this device out the door no later than 2023.

Checking with wikipedia's article on the Tegra series... Nvidia got the K1 out within 2 years of Kepler, X1 in under 1.5 years of Maxwell, X2... availability date not listed on wiki, but google gives a date for Jetson TX2 devkits that's within a year of Pascal, Xavier's within 1.5 years of Volta, and Orin's within 2 years of Ampere. Do I have reason to doubt Nvidia's ability to execute?

 

[Serif]

Since this thread has previously brought up comparisons between Steam Deck and Drake's theoretical performance, thought this might be of interest.

As one expects, there's a lot of settings turned down and the Deck has a 800/720p target so it doesn't need to match the Series S flop for flop to have decent IQ/framerate on its screen. But I like what I see.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Since this thread has previously brought up comparisons between Steam Deck and Drake's theoretical performance, thought this might be of interest.

As one expects, there's a lot of settings turned down and the Deck has a 800/720p target so it doesn't need to match the Series S flop for flop to have decent IQ/framerate on its screen. But I like what I see.

a lot of the games are cross-gen however. how much longer will that last is a big question, especially with the cpu.

 

[Look over there]

It's quite solid for what it is with all the constraints, but yea, it's probably not going to age all that well with whatever the future AAA requirements are. The CPU can be pushed to eat up an extra... what, 6 watts or something out of the power budget, which in turn really binds the GPU. And if you trust that the future will require temporal upscaling in higher end productions, that just further compounds the questions.

 

[ILikeFeet]

van gogh gabe boy's longevity would really depend on devs making low settings reach this device, which is questionable. maybe if they did Drake ports in-house they can use those settings as low

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I'm not saying that it's a lock, but Nvidia gives me the impression that if they're designing something utilizing a 2020 architecture (Ampere) as a base and utilizing a version of CUDA that's 2022-ish (a minor version in between Orin which is definitely this year and Ada Lovelace which is suspected to be this year), they probably have intent to get this device out the door no later than 2023.

Checking with wikipedia's article on the Tegra series... Nvidia got the K1 out within 2 years of Kepler, X1 in under 1.5 years of Maxwell, X2... availability date not listed on wiki, but google gives a date for Jetson TX2 devkits that's within a year of Pascal, Xavier's within 1.5 years of Volta, and Orin's within 2 years of Ampere. Do I have reason to doubt Nvidia's ability to execute?

I’d say that it’s more that Nintendo has to catch up with nvidia, than nvidia having to play catch-up with Nintendo in this case

And I fully believe nVidia can deliver a SoC on time, but can Nintendo deliver a console on time?

yes, they can, unless people want an over-engineered monster like the N64. Like there’s such a thing as too much time in the oven imo

 

[Cuzizkool]

Does anyone have a theory about how many watts this thing will be pushing when docked? A lot of the talk of power of CPU and GPU would be dependent on it. I wonder if a more powerful fan and/or better ventilation in the dock will help push a few more watts (safely) in docked mode.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Does anyone have a theory about how many watts this thing will be pushing when docked? A lot of the talk of power of CPU and GPU would be dependent on it. I wonder if a more powerful fan and/or better ventilation in the dock will help push a few more watts (safely) in docked mode.

expectations are around 13-16W docked at best I think?

Some have voiced 25-30W but idk about all that…


Personally speaking that is….


Edit: Though, they probably can push like 20W in docked mode, idk. Depends on what the device ends up being. Besides, you know, a switch.

 

[Armoured_Bear]

The point I want to make is that everyone is utterly guessing when it will be released so point saying " I expect this date which will be x months after..blah blah",
there is no guarantee whatsoever that Nintendo will go forward with the leaked Drake, they change plans all the time and them under clocking more than people realistically expect.
Also, DLSS currently has it's limitations, hopefully will be better by the time Switch 2/Pro is out but we don't know. Stating that It'll match a 200W Beast of a console is just asking to be disappointed IMO.
I hope you're right, the more power the better.
Remember, as much as I love Nitnedo, they always do inexplicable shit to gimp things, from no ethernet to no analogue triggers to 2xgaffer taped Gamecubes, people imaging what Sony or Ms would do in pushing potential mobile device specs doesn't work. Nintendo are as we all know, a very different console.

I personally expect it to be a very welcome jump from OG Switch (obviously) but no way will it be matching PS5/Series X in terms of horsepower and graphical fidelity.
I'd love it to be announced next week, I'm not even going to bother with Xenoblade 3, waiting for Switch 2 to play it at a resolution that the art deserves...

 

[LiC]

there is no guarantee whatsoever that Nintendo will go forward with the leaked Drake, they change plans all the time

This is ridiculous and not worth discussing.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Stating that It'll match a 200W Beast of a console is just asking to be disappointed IMO.

lol

not even the most optimistic, Alovon, has suggested this.

 

[Serif]

I personally expect it to be a very welcome jump from OG Switch (obviously) but no way will it be matching PS5/Series X in terms of horsepower and graphical fidelity.
I'd love it to be announced next week, I'm not even going to bother with Xenoblade 3, waiting for Switch 2 to play it at a resolution that the art deserves...

Your initial response to someone guessing Drake could match PS4-level handheld / Xbox One X docked (in terms of IQ, and not horsepower) was to lower their expectations significantly, and now you're bringing up a comparison to the PS5/Series X that, as far as I can tell, no one here has brought up. I'm confused.

 

[Look over there]

Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?

 

[Blue Monty]

Only comparasion that has been made here to next-gen consoles is to Series S , and it has never said that it would be able to match Series S performance, just that it could come close enough to make ports ‘easy’ and that DLSS is a huge part of making this possible.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?

there is no way of even beginning to guess that number. and if someone had that kind of info, they'd disappear

 

[Skittzo]

Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?

They'd probably have to foot most if not all of the development cost of the chip, if they haven't already.

That can be well into the hundreds of millions IIRC.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?

Not an exact figure, well let’s put it this way: you contract a company to design a chip for you that meets a certain performance per dollar you have in mind. The company gets started and comes back to you multiple times with feedback as they’re working on this chip, basically the two companies are working together with this chip but one is actually designing and creating this entire chip.

Now this process takes several years to do, it’s not a one-and-done type of deal. So you have their engineers who are working on this chip and then you, the client, decide very well when they’re in the middle-development-to-the-end-of-development that you want to cancel it. Mind you a node was already selected at the start by the designers (company making the chip) based on what you were willing to pay, the performance was already selected at the start, the overall targets of this chips purpose was selected at the beginning.


So now what do you have? While we simplified to just Nvidia and Nintendo, in reality it is Nintendo discussing with Nvidia who is discussing with ARM engineers and nVidia are also discussing with a Foundry, it could be TSMC or it could be SEC. At the moment, nVidia does not have any CPUs of their own, so Nintendo will basically be using ARM CPUs. On top of also nVidia engineers being at work here.


while I did not give you an exact number, these are multi-billion dollar companies so you can have an idea of what a cost could be for doing such a thing.

Actually, this is all a grossly simplified version.


Now, considering the current climate, what effect do you think that has on the current situation? Things aren’t getting cheaper so you have someone that is more locked-in want to say, or rather I should say it is difficult to exit out of at this point in time.

though not impossible, but it ain’t cheap. Intel sorta did it/does it, though they still released their GPUs…kinda. But look at where their GPUs actually are, exactly, nowhere

 

[mariodk18]

People talk about third parties not trusting Drake will be as successful out the gate as the current Switch, but canceling hardware after dev kits have been out for 2+ years would be the quickest way to burn bridges with near everyone. And forget software devs- think about what it would do to their relationship with Nvidia and future potential console makers. No one would want to work for Nintendo as they would have a reputation for pulling out the rug just before launch.

You wanna meme that "Nintendo gonna Nintendo"? Canceling Drake would make that a reality. Forget about weak hardware. Let's talk about NO hardware for the foreseeable future. The time to "shelve Drake" was maybe a year at the latest after sending dev kits out. Not nearly two years in. And regarding the topic of "oh man there's been no news the past few months"- recalling and shelving Drake would create likely the biggest news story of the year and be a huge blow to Nintendo's reputation. Mochizuki would be back with the biggest megaton bombshell of the generation.

None of the big console manufacturers have shelved a console after dev kits were out for two years. Certainly not Nintendo. Please think carefully about nonchalantly posting "oh maybe they just canceled it or delayed it 1-2 years".

Spoiler

Are you here to discuss the potential of future hardware or are you more interested in being right? Is the goal to come back when you think Drake doesn't come out and rub it in people's faces? Maybe state your distaste and distrust in Bloomberg again? Come on, people, it's the next Nintendo console! You'd think everyone would be excited, but it's like pulling teeth or something.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Guys, you should just ignore @Armoured_Bear ...
Telling people how they're stupid about Nintendo next hardware is their shtick and has been for very long...
It's as if They only applied to this forum cause they were raging reading this thread and needed to tell people "truth"

 

[Hermii]

Since this thread has previously brought up comparisons between Steam Deck and Drake's theoretical performance, thought this might be of interest.

As one expects, there's a lot of settings turned down and the Deck has a 800/720p target so it doesn't need to match the Series S flop for flop to have decent IQ/framerate on its screen. But I like what I see.

Its also fundamentally an unfair comparison. If SD had gotten console style optimisation, it would have been significantly closer.