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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Let's use the closest PC parts we can find to Switch 2 and PS5/XSX to compare the path-tracing performance on Quake 2 RTX.

The closest GPU to the T239 is the RTX 3050 mobile (technically it's the 2050 but I couldn't find videos of it) with 16 ray-tracing cores vs 12 on the T239. Considering how the 3050 is faster than the T239, to keep the comparison fair we need to select a GPU that is also faster than PS5/XSX. The closest GPU that can fit that criteria is the 6700XT. Let's pretend the additional performance those two PC cards have over their console counterparts is nullified by console-specific optimization, so pretend the ray-tracing performance of those cards is similar to the performance we can expect from Switch 2 and PS5/XSX.

6700XT (48fps avg):


3050 mobile (35 fps avg):


That's a 31% difference.

As we can see the dedicated ray-tracing cores are not enough to compete with the pure brute-force approach of the other consoles, however, Switch 2 could use DLSS to claw back some performance by running at lower resolutions while keeping image quality comparable to PS5/XSX. Either way, at least it will likely be faster than the Series S at ray-tracing, but not PS5/XSX.
 
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Nintendo is a business that will attempt to maximize shareholder value and therefore do greedy things that are bad for consumers.

But no BC would harm the brand so much with so minimal a gain that it probably would reduce shareholder value. Xbox One shows when attempting to be greedy can lead to a company making much less money. Of course, the Xbox One example shows some companies can miscalculate and be overly greedy.
 
Let's use the closest PC parts we can find to Switch 2 and PS5/XSX to compare the path-tracing performance on Quake 2 RTX.

The closest GPU to the T239 is the RTX 3050 mobile (technically it's the 2050 but I couldn't find videos of it) with 16 ray-tracing cores vs 12 on the T239. Considering how the 3050 is faster than the T239, to keep the comparison fair we need to select a GPU that is also faster than PS5/XSX. The closest GPU that can fit that criteria is the 6700XT. Let's pretend the additional performance those two PC cards have over their console counterparts is nullified by console-specific optimization, so pretend the ray-tracing performance of those cards is similar to the performance we can expect from Switch 2 and PS5/XSX.

6700XT (48fps avg):


3050 mobile (35 fps avg):


That's a 31% difference.

As we can see the dedicated ray-tracing cores are not enough to compete with the pure brute-force approach of the other consoles, however, Switch 2 could use DLSS to claw back some performance by running at lower resolutions while keeping image quality comparable to PS5/XSX. Either way, at least it will likely be faster than the Series S at ray-tracing, but not PS5/XSX.

Did you account for dedicated architectural focus that T239 would have which you cannot really achieve with PC parts?
 
Paying a fee for software compatibility upgrades even if small sounds inherently anti-consumer and anti-nintendo, I can't see them doing that lmao
Like imagine having to pay extra to play pokemon sv at acceptable performance.
Sounds like something you'd hear in an EA boardroom meeting
 
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Let's use the closest PC parts we can find to Switch 2 and PS5/XSX to compare the path-tracing performance on Quake 2 RTX.

The closest GPU to the T239 is the RTX 3050 mobile (technically it's the 2050 but I couldn't find videos of it) with 16 ray-tracing cores vs 12 on the T239. Considering how the 3050 is faster than the T239, to keep the comparison fair we need to select a GPU that is also faster than PS5/XSX. The closest GPU that can fit that criteria is the 6700XT. Let's pretend the additional performance those two PC cards have over their console counterparts is nullified by console-specific optimization, so pretend the ray-tracing performance of those cards is similar to the performance we can expect from Switch 2 and PS5/XSX.

6700XT (48fps avg):


3050 mobile (35 fps avg):


That's a 31% difference.

As we can see the dedicated ray-tracing cores are not enough to compete with the pure brute-force approach of the other consoles, however, Switch 2 could use DLSS to claw back some performance by running at lower resolutions while keeping image quality comparable to PS5/XSX. Either way, at least it will likely be faster than the Series S at ray-tracing, but not PS5/XSX.

Imagins Prime 4 with dlss and ray tracing, eyes are gonna melt
 
Imagins Prime 4 with dlss and ray tracing, eyes are gonna melt

Prime 4 using Switch as the lead platform with 4K + RT on Switch 2 will absolutely be a showcase. I’m getting too excited for something that we’ve no evidence will happen haha
 
I will leave it at this because I am honestly not trying to be argumentative, but the framing of the question directly related to backwards compatibility, so even if Doug Bowers gave us a big fat nothing burger for an answer as it relates to BC, its fair for readers to try and read between the lines with these answers because they often give vague answers to questions. Sometimes there is some meat on the bone and sometimes its just PR speak that holds zero weight.
I got hounded a couple days ago for doing this with the Furukawa interview, but now that there's a different quote that supports the majority opinion it's suddenly fine

¯ \ _ (ツ) _ / ¯​

 
One last minor thing from shipping data. Unless new data from the last couple months becomes available and reveals something, I think this is probably the last T239-related thing to find in there.

image.png


This is a fan module being shipped from Cooler Master Co Ltd in China to NVIDIA Graphics Private Limited in India. The first model number is Cooler Master's, and the second is Nvidia's, matching the model numbers for fans used in various Nvidia products (095-xxxx-000). Remember, E2423 is the SLT (system-level test) board Nvidia used internally for T239.

The shipment itself doesn't tell us anything, but at April 10, 2022, this is the earliest one found yet. With the other earliest T239-related listings also appearing in April, I think it's impressive how accurate @oldpuck's find was from the Linux commits. They had definitely started sampling and physical testing just ahead of that tuning commit (April 20, 2022).
 
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Instead of bringing back Miiverse, I just want Nintendo to take the Clubs idea off of Microsoft and implement something like that on Switch. I still to this day don't understand why Sony implemented that on PS4 and then killed it and never brought it back for PS5.

Is it just as simple as a reason that these corporations don't want their fans to build echo chambers on their systems and they want all conversations to be on social media for engagement instead?
 
One last minor thing from shipping data. Unless new data from the last couple months becomes available and reveals something, I think this is probably the latest T239-related thing to find in there.

image.png


This is a fan module being shipped from Cooler Master Co Ltd in China to NVIDIA Graphics Private Limited in India. The first model number is Cooler Master's, and the second is Nvidia's, matching the model numbers for fans used in various Nvidia products (095-xxxx-000).

The shipment itself doesn't tell us anything, but at April 10, 2022, this is the earliest one found yet. With the other earliest T239-related listings also appearing in April, I think it's impressive how accurate @oldpuck's find was from the Linux commits. They had definitely started sampling and physical testing just ahead of that tuning commit (April 20, 2022).
Nice find!
 
i think it's best to go with realistic mindset that nintendo would not put BC, in other words "prepare for disappointement"

considering this is nintendo we're talking, they will likely (once again) rerelease some of their switch games for higher prices
Another day, and I keep reading that we won't have BC because Nintendo...
 
Is it just as simple as a reason that these corporations don't want their fans to build echo chambers on their systems and they want all conversations to be on social media for engagement instead?
Pretty much. Why spend money on social features when NOT doing that means another company pays the server costs AND people outside your ecosystem see people talking about your games.
 
Another day, and I keep reading that we won't have BC because Nintendo...
Which is ironic, because Nintendo has a very solid history with backwards compatibility. Of all their handhelds, the only one to EVER drop backwards compatibility was Nintendo Switch, and that was for pretty understandable reasons.
 
Whether an interviewer asks Shuntaro Furakawa or Doug Bowser a question, or the question has specific parameters, statements that come from business executives are well processed statements that go through several internal divisions, or even are redacted by firms that especifically specialize in business communications.

I’m sure the Switch 2 will be backwards compatible with the OG Switch. But right now, Nintendo doesn’t want anyone outside their most inner circle to know what they’re cooking. If they confirm the successor is backwards compatible, everyone is gonna assume and build expectations behind the next gen console being a direct successor to the Nintendo Switch.
— But what if Nintendo doesn’t want to call it a Switch? What if Nintendo wants leverage on the naming just in case? Or what if something bad happens testing wise that BC has to be scrapped? Something they didn’t notice in testing?
 
Which is ironic, because Nintendo has a very solid history with backwards compatibility. Of all their handhelds, the only one to EVER drop backwards compatibility was Nintendo Switch, and that was for pretty understandable reasons.
Funny to imagine someone demanding a disc drive on the Switch for Wii U BC
 
Where's this BC talk coming from? Doug Bowser's statement is clearly manufactured like every other PR speak, what's here to talk about? It will have BC, that's not even up for debate.
 
Whether an interviewer asks Shuntaro Furakawa or Doug Bowser a question, or the question has specific parameters, statements that come from business executives are well processed statements that go through several internal divisions, or even are redacted by firms that especifically specialize in business communications.

I’m sure the Switch 2 will be backwards compatible with the OG Switch. But right now, Nintendo doesn’t want anyone outside their most inner circle to know what they’re cooking. If they confirm the successor is backwards compatible, everyone is gonna assume and build expectations behind the next gen console being a direct successor to the Nintendo Switch.
— But what if Nintendo doesn’t want to call it a Switch? What if Nintendo wants leverage on the naming just in case? Or what if something bad happens testing wise that BC has to be scrapped? Something they didn’t notice in testing?
Yeah, this. I'm tired of us reading so much into corporate quotes. It's fun to use them as nuggets, but it's best not to lean into them too hard
 
Bowser should’ve told the interviewer to stop listening to contrarian celebrity Youtube podcasters and their concern trolls. One doesn’t need a rumour mill to know that BC is a lock-in. The accounts have been a part of that process. Recently, they showed an enhanced version of BOTW to developers. This tells us that they’ll want people to be able to play it on the next console. Your account has a record of your Trials Of The Sword and Champions Ballad DLC purchase. The account stuff loses a lot of meaning if you can carry that, and your Booster Course Pass, your Octo Expansion, your Future Redeemed, your Sunbreak and your SSBUltimate Fighter passes to the next console, but can’t play your purchases because you can’t use your physical copy - In Mario Kart 8 Deluxe’s case, that’s over 50m people locked out of the game… I don’t see it, and I can’t reconcile that with the idea of No Hard Resets. I’m also not trying to hear “they’ll charge you full price for them again!!” because that’s just another “Because Nintendo” non-premise. That’s before we get to the fact that all of their portables, except from 3DS to Switch, have been backwards compatible.
 
I’m so ready for this to be announced and specs given. This speculation is too much. It’s going to be such a fun time to see the meltdowns that ALWAYS occur.
Superstition but if you call for negativity then negative comes your way :p
 
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Let's use the closest PC parts we can find to Switch 2 and PS5/XSX to compare the path-tracing performance on Quake 2 RTX.

The closest GPU to the T239 is the RTX 3050 mobile (technically it's the 2050 but I couldn't find videos of it) with 16 ray-tracing cores vs 12 on the T239. Considering how the 3050 is faster than the T239, to keep the comparison fair we need to select a GPU that is also faster than PS5/XSX. The closest GPU that can fit that criteria is the 6700XT. Let's pretend the additional performance those two PC cards have over their console counterparts is nullified by console-specific optimization, so pretend the ray-tracing performance of those cards is similar to the performance we can expect from Switch 2 and PS5/XSX.

6700XT (48fps avg):


3050 mobile (35 fps avg):


That's a 31% difference.

As we can see the dedicated ray-tracing cores are not enough to compete with the pure brute-force approach of the other consoles, however, Switch 2 could use DLSS to claw back some performance by running at lower resolutions while keeping image quality comparable to PS5/XSX. Either way, at least it will likely be faster than the Series S at ray-tracing, but not PS5/XSX.

isn't the first video of quake 1 kinda making a comparison here meaningless
 
How many more flops (at various possible clock speeds for the Switch 2) is the 3050 relative to the Switch 2.
According to TechPowerUp - https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/geforce-rtx-3050-mobile.c3788
~5.5TFlops
It also has only 4GB of GDDR6 RAM capable of 192GB/s.

Now, wasn't it discussed that ray tracing LOVES low-latency RAM? From what Raploz showed, the "testing" GPUs both utilize GDDR6. The PS5/Series also use GDDR6. The Switch2 won't, but instead uses LPDDR5(X). Wouldn't that help shorten the gap that is already being assumed?

 
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How many more flops (at various possible clock speeds for the Switch 2) is the 3050 relative to the Switch 2.

3050 Mobile with base clock (1065 MHz) = 4.362 TFLOPS //// boost clock (1343 MHz) = 5.501 TFLOPS

Switch 2 at:
550 MHz = 1.869 TFLOPS
660 MHz = 2.027 TFLOPS
1125 MHz = 3.456 TFLOPS
1380 MHz = 4.239 TFLOPS
 
The RTX 3050 only has 4 GBs of RAM, but does have 224 GB/s of RAM bandwidth, relative to an expected ~100 GB/s for the Switch 2. Would guess the Switch 2 still ends up in a better spot memory wise than the RTX 3050 as long as it has 2x6GB LPDDR5 RAM. If we end up around two teraflops for the Switch 2, I wonder how much optimization can make up for the 2 TF vs. 5.5 TF gap.
 
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That's a 31% difference.

As we can see the dedicated ray-tracing cores are not enough to compete with the pure brute-force approach of the other consoles,
I see what you're getting at, and I agree with your conclusion, I think we can make a stronger comparison.

You’re not just comparing two GPUs which only kinda-sorta resemble the target systems, you don’t know anything about the CPU/RAM/motherboard setup of the two machines you’re comparing.

Nobody reasonable believes that turning on RT features will make Drake look like a PS5. RT games mix rasterization and RT features. There will have to be cuts, even if Drake’s RT hardware was twice as powerful as a PS5. But those cuts wouldn’t be from the RT part of the pipeline.

So if we wanna isolate the RT perf, we don’t just want to compare two games at matched settings on otherwise matched PCs - we need to isolate the RT cost away from the raster cost. Fortunately, we have that data.

We have matched settings, matched PC benchmarks for both Control and Metro Exodus with RT on and off from Digital Foundry. Let’s compete some cards - the RTX3070 and the RX6800 have similar TFLOPs and 1440p perf.

Here is Control:
RTX 3070 raster frame time: 11.9ms
RTX 3070 RT frame time: 23.2ms
RX 6800 raster frame time: 11.6ms
RX 6800 RT frame time: 31.25

One thing to note here - you can see how the RDNA2 card slightly outperforms the Ampere card at rasterization, despite the fact that it has fewer FLOPS. Another nail in the TFLOPS coffin.

Let's compute this as a "cost" for RT, by subtracting out the raster time for each.
RTX 3070 RT frame cost: 11.30
RX 6800 RT frame cost: 19.65

Total inversion. RT performance is 75% faster, at least on Control. Not all games - and not all effects - are created equal. But Metro Exodus gives us almost identical numbers. And if you churn through a bunch of other cards you’re going to get similar results (said the guy who did this).

Anyway, what are you trying to say?

Uh, basically the same thing as OP just with more numbers ;-)

RT effects generally run at lower res than the rest of the game. Which is why they don’t always scale down - at some point your game is already at some insanely low res, that the even lower RT res looks unusably bad.

That’s why dropping res isn’t enough for most Series S games - they have to drop the RT effects as well. They eat performance while looking awful.

On Drake, that line is basically much further down. Which means yeah, you can see comparable effects from PS5, just lower res.
 
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Bowser should’ve told the interviewer to stop listening to contrarian celebrity Youtube podcasters and their concern trolls. One doesn’t need a rumour mill to know that BC is a lock-in. The accounts have been a part of that process. Recently, they showed an enhanced version of BOTW to developers. This tells us that they’ll want people to be able to play it on the next console. Your account has a record of your Trials Of The Sword and Champions Ballad DLC purchase. The account stuff loses a lot of meaning if you can carry that, and your Booster Course Pass, your Octo Expansion, your Future Redeemed, your Sunbreak and your SSBUltimate Fighter passes to the next console, but can’t play your purchases because you can’t use your physical copy - In Mario Kart 8 Deluxe’s case, that’s over 50m people locked out of the game… I don’t see it, and I can’t reconcile that with the idea of No Hard Resets. I’m also not trying to hear “they’ll charge you full price for them again!!” because that’s just another “Because Nintendo” non-premise. That’s before we get to the fact that all of their portables, except from 3DS to Switch, have been backwards compatible.
That’s a good point, I never considered the impact of DLC for physical bought games…
 
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Yknow what I just realized that even if it dosent have bc I'm not gonna sell my og switch so it won't be the end if the world for me at least
It isn't a biiiiiiiig deal for me either, but it's about trust.

The Switch brought me back to gaming after a hiatus of 15 years, thanks to portability and BotW. So I built my library, half of it digital, on the Switch platform. I'd like to bring it forward and expand it.

If there is no BC going forward, my collection is stuck on a machine that won't last much longer and that will be increasingly difficult to repair. I'll just emulate it, without remorse.

I'll still buy a Switch 2 and the occasional AAA first-party game, but that's about it. I'll buy third-parties, 90-95% of my purchases, elsewhere.
I'll get a handheld PC, those are increasingly appealing, and build my library on Steam, which is trust-worthy and they keep my saves safe and synchronized for free.
 
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Who said the thing about Nintendo delisting the OG Switch "Launch Trailer" to make room for another "Launch Trailer" - in this case for SMB Wonder instead of Switch NG - so the SEO would be ready for people searching for launch trailers?

They get major credibility points in my book, despite this "Launch Trailer" not being for redacted.
 
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This post is true insofar as his use of the word "communicate." But that's not the only thing he said, and it's not the thing that's been brought up all the time. The thing that's been brought up all the time is this:

7qiunRT.jpg


The "long-term relationship," "smooth transition," and lack of a "reset" are what get brought up all the time. I promise, no matter how cynically you want to look at things, they aren't using those phrases as just a euphemism for "we have the ability to send marketing e-mails."
Unless they continue to manufacture switches indefinitely, BC is a no brainer. Imagine losing thousands of games once your switch dies and you can't buy one anymore.
 
3050 Mobile with base clock (1065 MHz) = 4.362 TFLOPS //// boost clock (1343 MHz) = 5.501 TFLOPS

Switch 2 at:
550 MHz = 1.869 TFLOPS
660 MHz = 2.027 TFLOPS
1125 MHz = 3.456 TFLOPS
1380 MHz = 4.239 TFLOPS

But as far as clocks go, shouldn't we compare it to a card on the same proposed 5nm process?

For example, the 4050 is clocked as such:
  • Base Clock 2505 MHz
  • Boost Clock 2640 MHz
That makes the top end of 1380 MHz feel more like the bottom end. I never understood why everyone was painting us into that small of a corner.

Imagine this thing comes out clocked at 1600 MHz and everyone is surprised. I mean just looking at it, seems possible to me. But I'm a moron so who knows.
 
The shipment itself doesn't tell us anything, but at April 10, 2022, this is the earliest one found yet. With the other earliest T239-related listings also appearing in April, I think it's impressive how accurate @oldpuck's find was from the Linux commits. They had definitely started sampling and physical testing just ahead of that tuning commit (April 20, 2022).
My masterpiece.
 
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The 2050 Is probably a decent comparison point though in raw performance the 3050 really isn't much of a step up from the 2050 in actual real-world performance. 2050 is pretty much a 1080P Medium to high settings card. Factor in DLSS and it can work some magic.

Obviously the T239 would have advantages in ways the 2050 wouldn't but it gives an idea. I think the takeaway though is RT while being possible would impact these games quite a bit.
 
But as far as clocks go, shouldn't we compare it to a card on the same proposed 5nm process?

For example, the 4050 is clocked as such:
  • Base Clock 2505 MHz
  • Boost Clock 2640 MHz
That makes the top end of 1380 MHz feel more like the bottom end. I never understood why everyone was painting us into that small of a corner.

But then you're not making a comparison with the 4050 mobile (which has 1455 MHz as base clock and 1755 MHz as boost clock).

Anyway, they asked for a comparison with the 3050, so that was it.
 
I come back from Detroit, rot for a while, and find out it’s moved like 300 pages?!\
But seriously, sorry for lurking again.

While I’m catching up (my OG fami tab is currently on page 1630), what’s the current sentiment regarding ray reconstruction and fab nodes?
 
I come back from Detroit, rot for a while, and find out it’s moved like 300 pages?!\
But seriously, sorry for lurking again.

While I’m catching up (my OG fami tab is currently on page 1630), what’s the current sentiment regarding ray reconstruction and fab nodes?
Ray reconstruction has been confirmed, fab remains up in the air
 
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I mean, isn't this going to happen with the 3DS.
The 3DS has BC though with the DS and DSi purchases and in a different form factor. They literally abandoned that eshop. The Switch eshop though is different and they will proceed with it moving forward. Imagine seeing thousands of your bought games in that shop unplayable.
 
Imagine this thing comes out clocked at 1600 MHz and everyone is surprised. I mean just looking at it, seems possible to me. But I'm a moron so who knows.
You’re not a moron - it’s not obvious unless you’ve been swimming in this data forever.

There just isn’t enough power in a small form factor device to go both fast and big. Drake is big, so it has to be slow. This is generally preferable because big and slow is more power efficient that small and fast.

There are multiple other parts of the design that make the 1100 MHz cap just seem to line up. Absolute peak efficiency is about 550, so the best bang for the buck in handheld is right there. Double that means that handheld and docked will have similar power per pixel.

The memory bandwidth lines up with the Ampere cards. Roughly syncs up with the leap in power that’s possible in the CPU side, and the cost effective amount of RAM.

We might get something wild, but that clock speed just kinda dials in a bunch of pieces
 
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this talk about Nintendo making the same looking games but with better framerate and IQ is a bit of nonsense when whenever they have had more power available their games visuals have improved significantly to reflect that.

Stylized artstyles have nothing to do with how far you can push your geometry, lighting and rendering techniques.
See some people online being disappointed visually with Spider-Man 2 when compared to the PS4 original despite exclusively being on a console which is a massive leap over the ancient tech inside PS4. (I’m playing it at the moment and think it’s ridiculously good looking to be clear).

Diminishing returns are very real despite some online saying they weren’t for the past decade. Cross gen games make things even worse.

Switch 2 exclusives especially the larger budget titles like 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda will definitely be a large visual leap but I can’t see the likes of the mid to lower budget titles like Yoshi, Kirby, Animal Crossing, Mario Sports titles etc being that big a leap over what we have on Switch but at 4k instead of 900p.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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