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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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carbvan said:
Saw a reddit comment on gamingleaksandrumours about the trailer being taken down. It turns out the band, White Denim, who made the song actually has been having a lot of trouble when it comes to the rights and licensing their own music. Multiple videos of theirs apparently have been removed from YouTube because of this and some albums were pulled from Spotify temporarily. This is all due to the band not actually owning the masters of their own music, and their publisher got bought out a few months back. The law just doesn't know who owns the rights to the music anymore. So, assuming this is true, I think that settles it. It's not that Nintendo wanted to take down the trailer, it's that the rights issue is so messy that Nintendo couldn't navigate it in time to extend the licensing.
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This thread should come with a motion sickness warning.
 
carbvan said:
Saw a reddit comment on gamingleaksandrumours about the trailer being taken down. It turns out the band, White Denim, who made the song actually has been having a lot of trouble when it comes to the rights and licensing their own music. Multiple videos of theirs apparently have been removed from YouTube because of this and some albums were pulled from Spotify temporarily. This is all due to the band not actually owning the masters of their own music, and their publisher got bought out a few months back. The law just doesn't know who owns the rights to the music anymore. So, assuming this is true, I think that settles it. It's not that Nintendo wanted to take down the trailer, it's that the rights issue is so messy that Nintendo couldn't navigate it in time to extend the licensing.
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the song used for the switch reveal trailer seems to still be available on their youtube page. assuming i’m looking at the right one - Ha Ha Ha Ha (yeah) ?
 
theguy said:
the song used for the switch reveal trailer seems to still be available on their youtube page. assuming i’m looking at the right one - Ha Ha Ha Ha (yeah) ?
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Yeah, both music videos is still up on their YouTube channel. I also couldn't find anything online about their music being taken off Spotify or them having legal troubles with the album.

I think it's best to dismiss what the redditor said until he can prove otherwise.
 
theguy said:
the song used for the switch reveal trailer seems to still be available on their youtube page. assuming i’m looking at the right one - Ha Ha Ha Ha (yeah) ?
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Yes but the person on Reddit said this has happened in the past and there's still some issues. Their music video staying up doesn't mean there's not licensing problems involving third parties.
 
carbvan said:
Yes but the person on Reddit said this has happened in the past and there's still some issues. Their music video staying up doesn't mean there's not licensing problems involving third parties.
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i don’t understand, how does that make sense? if it’s a licensing issue with the band and nintendo used that music in the reveal trailer, why would nintendo have to remove their video revealing their current console, but the band can keep it up on their page?
 
Νεφέλωμα said:
Damn, 1901.
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Only 99 more pages until reveal.

The fact that they just dropped a trailer for a new amiibo is making it feel less likely that the amiibo restock is related to NG.
And the music dmca theory seems pretty feasible, so I wouldn’t huff too much copium that there’s going to be an announcement tomorrow.
 
theguy said:
i don’t understand, how does that make sense? if it’s a licensing issue with the band and nintendo used that music in the reveal trailer, why would nintendo have to remove their video revealing their current console, but the band can keep it up on their page?
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Licensing is weird. This doesn't seem like an outlandish scenario to me.
 
qwerp said:
Yeah, both music videos is still up on their YouTube channel. I also couldn't find anything online about their music being taken off Spotify or them having legal troubles with the album.

I think it's best to dismiss what the redditor said until he can prove otherwise.
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After all, I doubt this is going to last long unanswered. Give yourselves a day or two to see the endgame, if it's truly intentional then we're literally at the finish line. Win win for everyone IMO.
 
FireGrey said:
The fact that they just dropped a trailer for a new amiibo is making it feel less likely that the amiibo restock is related to NG.
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That was a completely different set of Amiibo we already knew was coming, though. So there's still a question mark about the restock.
 
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theguy said:
i don’t understand, how does that make sense? if it’s a licensing issue with the band and nintendo used that music in the reveal trailer, why would nintendo have to remove their video revealing their current console, but the band can keep it up on their page?
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Because the band likely still owns the song, so they wouldn't need to remove it off their own channel. It is only Nintendo license that has expired.
 
b16.jpg
 
Was there ever a trailer for the Mario OLED switch?

I can't find it on their channel... which is weird since there's a trailer for splatoon, totk, and pokemon

Did they delist it?
 
qwerp said:
Because the band likely still owns the song, so they wouldn't need to remove it off their own channel. It is only Nintendo license that has expired.
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which is contrary to what the reddit comment was saying right? where they suggested a number of the band’s songs had been removed from their page due to licensing issues. so if the song in question had been removed from the band’s page i can see how that could potentially cause an issue for nintendo, but that song hasn’t been removed, which means either the nintendo licence has expired, or there’s something fishy going on.
 
theguy said:
which is contrary to what the reddit comment was saying right? where they suggested a number of the band’s songs had been removed from their page due to licensing issues. so if the song in question had been removed from the band’s page i can see how that could potentially cause an issue for nintendo, but that song hasn’t been removed, which means either the nintendo licence has expired, or there’s something fishy going on.
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Yes, if there were legal issues regarding ownership of the song, the music video most likely would also be removed. To me, it just looks like Nintendo's license has expired. The trailer wasn't copyright claimed, Nintendo privatised it.
 
10k said:
You all just need to accept we are getting no official Switch RTX (that's the new name for it now cause Nvidia wants co-branding, it's my newest rumour I am clinging too) until 2024.
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You sly dog, I always had my suspicions that you had exclusive rumors 😉
 
A fellow member mentioned it, but it’s possible they’re dropping a trailer for the Mario OLED Switch. The thing did wonders in Japan. Some extra marketing could help keep boosting hardware sales.

Note: I’m on the boat that this could be Swich 2 related, but It’s more confirmation bias than anything objective
 
ziggyrivers said:
A fellow member mentioned it, but it’s possible they’re dropping a trailer for the Mario OLED Switch. The thing did wonders in Japan. Some extra marketing could help keep boosting hardware sales.

Note: I’m on the boat that this could be Swich 2 related, but It’s more confirmation bias than anything objective
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I dont think they would remove the whole switch trailer just for a holiday bundle, unless they are privating it for like a few weeks but then again they dont private any of the other switch trailers
 
ziggyrivers said:
A fellow member mentioned it, but it’s possible they’re dropping a trailer for the Mario OLED Switch. The thing did wonders in Japan. Some extra marketing could help keep boosting hardware sales.

Note: I’m on the boat that this could be Swich 2 related, but It’s more confirmation bias than anything objective
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That wouldn't line up with previous occurrences, it already got a trailer within Mario Wonder's marketing campaign and they'd take down the other Switch (preferably OLED) trailer rather than the literal reveal. Regardless of it being licensing or legit, this sounds the most unlikely considering what many people have said.
 
Tof said:
Could be to avoid a trailer for an OLED switch console coinciding with another console announcement…perchance (I will never not use this word when and if possible)
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That's what I'm thinking (optimist)

They never made the trailer because they knew when they were going to reveal switch 2 👀
 
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carbvan said:
Saw a reddit comment on gamingleaksandrumours about the trailer being taken down. It turns out the band, White Denim, who made the song actually has been having a lot of trouble when it comes to the rights and licensing their own music. Multiple videos of theirs apparently have been removed from YouTube because of this and some albums were pulled from Spotify temporarily. This is all due to the band not actually owning the masters of their own music, and their publisher got bought out a few months back. The law just doesn't know who owns the rights to the music anymore. So, assuming this is true, I think that settles it. It's not that Nintendo wanted to take down the trailer, it's that the rights issue is so messy that Nintendo couldn't navigate it in time to extend the licensing.
Click to expand...
I'm not exactly sure where this person got all of this information. Some of this seems to be completely false as well. Their album "Stiff" was specifically the only one removed from Spotify. It was still up on Apple Music, so it clearly wasn't a full-on licensing issue. Otherwise, it should have been taken down on all platforms. No other albums were taken down to my knowledge. I also can't find anything on people removing a bunch of videos using their music "in the past 4 weeks". This same person also didn't know for sure if it was a legal issue. It was only speculation from the person he DM'd, who said himself he had no idea why it was actually taken down.
(Source)

The album is back up on Spotify as of 15 days ago. If they took it down due to the rights of the records falling through, then such issues have been resolved. Otherwise, it shouldn't be back up. I can't find anything about a publisher being bought out recently at all. Downtown Records, the record label that handles publishing and licensing for the Stiff album, has not been bought out recently, nor has there been any issues with them from what I can find recently. It was bought by its original co-founders in 2013 and was made fully independent. The record label is still owned by them, and nothing has changed in that regard. The distributor of the Stiff album, Sony Red, was folded in 2017, and ever since, they've been working with Universal/Geffen Records, but that was, once again, back in 2017. Nothing has changed since then. The video wasn't taken down in 2017 after this folding.
(Sony RED Source)
(Downtown Records Source)
(White Denim Source)

These claims seem to be mostly false and not founded by any actual information. The record label is still fine and has not been bought out. That claim came out of nowhere. Unless I'm missing something, if I am, please let me know, and I'll edit this post.
 
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Paraspikey said:
I'm not exactly sure where this person got all of this information. Some of this seems to be completely false as well. Their album "Stiff" was specifically the only one removed from Spotify. It was still up on Apple Music, so it clearly wasn't a full-on licensing issue. Otherwise, it should have been taken down on all platforms. No other albums were taken down to my knowledge. I also can't find anything on people removing a bunch of videos using videos using their music "in the past 4 weeks". This same person also didn't know for sure if it was a legal issue. It was only speculation from the person he DM'd, who said himself he had no idea why it was actually taken down.
(Source)

The album is back up on Spotify as of 15 days ago. If they took it down due to the rights of the records falling through, then such issues have been resolved. Otherwise, it shouldn't be back up. I can't find anything about a publisher being bought out recently at all. Downtown Records, the record label that handles publishing and licensing, has not been bought out recently, nor has there been any issues with them from what I can find recently. It was bought by its original co-founders in 2013 and was made fully independent. The record label is still owned by them, and nothing has changed in that regard. The distributor of the Stiff album, Sony Red, was folded in 2017, and ever since, they've been working with Universal/Geffen Records, but that was, once again, back in 2017. Nothing has changed since then. The video wasn't taken down in 2017 after this folding.
(Sony RED Source)
(Downtown Records Source)
(White Denim Source)

These claims seem to be mostly false and not founded by any actual information. The record label is still fine and has not been bought out. That claim came out of nowhere. Unless I'm missing something, if I am, please let me know, and I'll edit this post.
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can always count on paraspikey to do the research and get the receipts
 
Paraspikey said:
I'm not exactly sure where this person got all of this information. Some of this seems to be completely false as well. Their album "Stiff" was specifically the only one removed from Spotify. It was still up on Apple Music, so it clearly wasn't a full-on licensing issue. Otherwise, it should have been taken down on all platforms. No other albums were taken down to my knowledge. I also can't find anything on people removing a bunch of videos using videos using their music "in the past 4 weeks". This same person also didn't know for sure if it was a legal issue. It was only speculation from the person he DM'd, who said himself he had no idea why it was actually taken down.
(Source)

The album is back up on Spotify as of 15 days ago. If they took it down due to the rights of the records falling through, then such issues have been resolved. Otherwise, it shouldn't be back up. I can't find anything about a publisher being bought out recently at all. Downtown Records, the record label that handles publishing and licensing, has not been bought out recently, nor has there been any issues with them from what I can find recently. It was bought by its original co-founders in 2013 and was made fully independent. The record label is still owned by them, and nothing has changed in that regard. The distributor of the Stiff album, Sony Red, was folded in 2017, and ever since, they've been working with Universal/Geffen Records, but that was, once again, back in 2017. Nothing has changed since then. The video wasn't taken down in 2017 after this folding.
(Sony RED Source)
(Downtown Records Source)
(White Denim Source)

These claims seem to be mostly false and not founded by any actual information. The record label is still fine and has not been bought out. That claim came out of nowhere. Unless I'm missing something, if I am, please let me know, and I'll edit this post.
Click to expand...
Alright I'll edit the original comment, you found more stuff than I did. I appreciate you looking into it more, I was in class and couldn't really do much in that regard. I still think this is some sort of weird licensing thing tho, it being almost exactly 7 years later and all that.
 
So, for a while I've been on the lookout for benchmarks with power draw readings of low-end Ada laptop GPUs, to get an idea of the efficiency benefits of Ada over Ampere, and therefore perhaps a rough estimate of what we might expect for Ampere on 4N. There are plenty of power measurements from desktop GPUs, but the efficiency of Nvidia's 4nm GPUs at 2GHz+ isn't particularly relevant to a device like the Switch. It's also made trickier by the fact that the vast majority of laptops with Ada GPUs have them configured to 100W+ power limits, which again isn't of much use.

However, I just discovered that the Dell XPS 15 9530 can be configured with an RTX 4070, with a pretty low TDP. This is actually the most power-constrained GPU in the Ada lineup, as it has 36 SMs, and can be configured down to a TDP of 35W. The 4050 and 4060 are smaller GPUs, but have the same lower limit of 35W, so aren't as power constrained, whereas bigger GPUs like the laptop 4080 have much higher minimum power limits. Therefore, the RTX 4070 configured with a TDP of 35W would be the lowest-clocked Nvidia 4nm GPU, and the closest to the clocks we might expect from T239.

The XPS 15 seems to use a slightly higher TDP limit of around 45W, but it seems to be as close as we can get. What's more, this Notebookcheck article discusses the power draw, and includes a screenshot of a Witcher 3 stress test running on the XPS 15 with an RTX 4070, including a GPU-Z window with clock speed and power draw information.

Before I delve any further, I feel I should add a bunch of caveats, so this doesn't get taken out of context:
  1. Ampere on 4N isn't the same as Ada on 4N. They're similar architectures, but there are any number of small changes that could impact power draw in one way or another.
  2. As this is a laptop GPU, it's very likely that it's binned. That means that Nvidia have taken the most efficient chips off the production line and used them for laptops, leaving the less efficient chips for desktop GPUs. So, this is likely more efficient than a typical Ada GPU chip. Nintendo wouldn't be able to use binned chips for Switch 2, they'll have to set their clock and power draw limits in such a way that 90%+ of chips pass, so it wouldn't be as efficient as a binned laptop GPU like this.
  3. They don't specify the settings used in the Witcher 3 stress test, but as it seems to be something they've used in GPU reviews for a long time, and RT was only added recently, my guess is that it probably isn't using either RT or DLSS. This means there's idle hardware not being used, and if they were using the RT cores and tensor cores as well, then power consumption would be higher (or clocks would have to be lower).
That all said, from the screenshot in the Notebookcheck article, you can see a GPU clock of 1590MHz (which seems relatively stable) and a GPU chip power draw of 31.7W, which also seems relatively stable. The GPU chip power draw only includes the power consumed by the GPU chip itself, not the RAM, which is important, as GDDR6 is going to be consuming a non-trivial amount of power (I believe the 8.1W MVDDC power draw is the RAM).

So, as it's a GPU with three GPCs (12 SMs each), per GPC it's drawing around 10.6W at 1.59GHz. To be clear, even though this is in the rough ballpark of Switch docked power draw and T239 has 1 GPC of 12 SMs, I absolutely don't expect clocks anywhere near 1.59GHz. Per the caveats above, I'd expect that T239's GPU, on 4N without binning, and utilising both RT cores and DLSS, might only hit 1.2-1.3GHz at this power draw. Additionally, the launch Switch consumed 11W when docked, for the full system, including GPU, GPU, RAM, etc. So a power draw of almost 11W just for the GPU would represent a significantly increase over the original Switch, let alone the 2019 model. Even if they push docked power draw up to 15W for Switch 2, I'd still expect the GPU to come in under 10W, as things like RAM and storage (and possibly CPU) are going to consume more power this time around.

That said, this does roughly line up with my expectation that T239's 12SM GPU, if manufactured on TSMC 4N, could clock to around 1.1GHz or so in docked mode without consuming substantially more power than the original Switch did.
 
Love ya'll, you're all very smart.

Trying to reverse engineer IP law from first principles, or guess licensing shenanigans in the music industry without having worked in it - fool's errand. It's weirder than you could possibly imagine in your free time.

Not saying it is licensing shenanigans, but you can't dismiss it, because you cannot imagine how insanely complicated it would be. We're talking about an industry where the biggest pop star in the western world had to rerecord her own early albums because a label keeps hard drives in a vault and IP law treats them like artifacts in Final Fantasy game.
 
For people dooming (ironically?) about the Switch selling too well for the Switch 2 to release.

The Switch likely got outsold 2.4:1 by the PS5 in the US this September (480k estimated for PS5, 200k estimated for Switch).

The Switch's Japan sales are likely being heavily propped up by the Switch being aggressively scalped overseas due to the yen being extremely weak, but Nintendo not raising prices in Japan (causing the Switch OLED to cost ~$250 in Japan right now)
 
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ziggyrivers said:
“Random person on the internet” attacks again
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I was really banking on the guy getting back to me quickly because the scenario seemed plausible. But I've been one guy'd and it got 21 Yeah's. People are just gonna take what I said as gospel. My comment is going to pop up on some sort of crappy AI generated gaming news article now and I'll die from cringe.
 
oldpuck said:
Love ya'll, you're all very smart.

Trying to reverse engineer IP law from first principles, or guess licensing shenanigans in the music industry without having worked in it - fool's errand. It's weirder than you could possibly imagine in your free time.

Not saying it is licensing shenanigans, but you can't dismiss it, because you cannot imagine how insanely complicated it would be. We're talking about an industry where the biggest pop star in the western world had to rerecord her own early albums because a label keeps hard drives in a vault and IP law treats them like artifacts in Final Fantasy game.
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Honestly, I think there's a middle ground here. Kit and Krista indicated that yeah, licensing comes into play with these videos. But (IIRC) they also indicated that it's common practice to renew said licenses for a year at a time after the initial expiration.

Why would this year be the year it no longer becomes worth renewing? Draw your own conclusions. Me personally, I'll add it to the smoke pile, but I don't think it says anything one way or the other about a reveal before the end of the year if the decision was to let it expire now or renew it all the way to next October.

Edit: Now also seeing the rumor of questionable validity. I'll echo your larger point that these things are complicated and there's a bunch of weird little things that could've caused this that have nothing to do with the upcoming hardware.
 
Jersh said:
Honestly, I think there's a middle ground here. Kit and Krista indicated that yeah, licensing comes into play with these videos. But (IIRC) they also indicated that it's common practice to renew said licenses for a year at a time after the initial expiration.

Why would this year be the year it no longer becomes worth renewing? Draw your own conclusions. Me personally, I'll add it to the smoke pile, but I don't think it says anything one way or the other about a reveal before the end of the year if the decision was to let it expire now or renew it all the way to next October.
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I think someone else said it but it's somewhat possible Nintendo doesn't consider it worth it to continue paying a license when they're planning on revealing the next platform early next year (march).

They still have other videos to advertise the current Switch (or could just do a new ad).

Anyway I don't think this really indicates anything imminent happening (besides a surprise new special edition which would be weird at this point unless it's for
WarioWare of all games).
 
Adulfzen said:
I think someone else said it but it's somewhat possible Nintendo doesn't consider it worth it to continue paying a license when they're planning on revealing the next platform early next year (march).

They still have other videos to advertise the current Switch (or could just do a new ad).
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That's basically what I'm getting at, yeah. Could this be tied to new hardware? Sure. Will we definitely see it before the holidays if it is? No.
 
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