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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

The lack of a leak that Drake has been taped out is a bit surprising for there to be a potential 2022 launch.
Tape out doesn't always leak. Did it leak for the PS5/XSX/S chips?
I think PS5 didn’t, but Series X (and by extension the unrevealed S at the time) was alluded to being taped out in August.

PS5 iirc was simply said to be in mass manufacturing in June/July. Or rather, shown with the gigantic plates in the factory.
 
Would it be more likely we got a leak once the console is actually physically being manufactured rather than tape out?

Could also see accessories leak if the form factor changes
Yeah, production leaks are probably the most likely to happen. IIRC we got a leak of the Lite's casing in April 2019, for a September 2019 release. For Drake I'm guessing October or November, so maybe we'll see production leaks starting in May/June.
 
The first diagram actually looks like it's showing an identical housing to the sticks used in the Joycons.
I can't seem to find a product on the Alps website that has exactly this housing. The closest is the RKJXY (which was "deleted" and dis-recommended in February 2020), which has a slightly different housing and different cap. I'm sure their website doesn't have all the information companies actually use to order these, but it would be useful if we could determine whether this housing and cap are or were available to anyone. If they were only ever sold to Nintendo, that makes the patent more interesting.
Yes, the closest Alps part publicly available is the RKJXY. It doesn't support the center push, however, and has a different ribbon cable and two different screw mounts. The Joy-Con stick is probably a custom design based upon the RKJXY. It does seem curious that the Alps patent uses drawings looking like the Switch part.
Anything special devs could do with this that they couldn’t do before or it’s just a drift fix and nothing else
As far as I can tell, there's no new "gimmick" in this patent filing. It is to improve the user experience, but not adding anything new.

Edit: typo
 
I don't think all of the leaks were wrong or lying, but I really don't see it coming out this year. Assuming this super pro/successor or whatever is coming out this year, we'd probably be hearing about it existing around now (from Nintendo) and then a full unveiling in the summer for a fall release. Whether this thing is called a successor by Nintendo or not, it effectively would be, because of the massive hardware gap, and you cant just shadow drop a successor to your console. You need a big marketing campaign, you need to show off all the massively improved or even exclusive games. But we're hearing nothing right now. We would also likely be seeing tons of leaks from third parties regarding Super Switch games. While Nintendo may be able to hold back leaks, someone like Ubisoft would have leaked ports by now.

Where there's fire, you'd expect there to be smoke, and there's none.

First off, there's been a ton of smoke and fire, especially with the leaks that happened a few weeks back. We literally had a dedicated thread surrounding the Nvidia hack regarding the Drake news (previous labeled Dane) and more and more information had been datamined since then regarding certain functions/operations (though we're still missing a full spec/speeds/etc.). Please read the thread a lot more to understand what has happened.

What I'm thinking is before 2020 Nintendo planned to do a late 2022/early 2023 release of this device, but a combination of covid pushing up demand for their console, and the chip shortage caused them to push their new console back until late 2023 or early 2024. Even without the chip shortage, the boosted demand alone makes it a little silly to launch a new console now.

Second, Nintendo and Nvidia had already put in an order in advance. As other users have pointed out before and since your post, you can't delay or cancel these orders unless you want your production massively delayed. Everything has been backed up even before COVID, but especially now. Nintendo, for sure, could stock pile orders and push it out a little bit longer by a few months, but I doubt, unless something went horribly wrong with the planned next model/iteration of hardware, will cancel and delay things further massively.
 
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Would it be more likely we got a leak once the console is actually physically being manufactured rather than tape out?

Could also see accessories leak if the form factor changes
That assumes there’s a drastic difference in the housing, which I doubt.
 
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Yes, the closest Alps part publicly available is the RKJXY. It doesn't support the center push, however, and has a different ribbon cable and two different screw mounts. The Joy-Con stick is probably a custom design based upon the RKJXY. It does seem curious that the Alps patent uses drawings looking like the Switch part.

As far as I can tell, there's no new "gimmick" in this patent filing. It is to improve the user experience, but not adding anything new.

Edit: typo
I can say that eliminating drift count as a new gimmick for me :)
 
Remember when Dragon Quest 11 was announced for the NX before we even knew what it was

If this were following the Switch precedent, talking about it this month would be for an August launch. How many Switch ports were leaked before its official announcement? There was the premature DQXI NX announcement.

As far as I'm concerned, Square has already suggested the existence of new Switch hardware. The Dragon Quest presentation last year where they announced Dragon Quest XII had a moment where the interviewer asked what hardware the game was for and was immediately told he wasn't allowed to ask that.

Anyway, Jensen Huang apparently officially confirmed that Nvidia's considering using Intel Foundry Services (IFS) in the future. And Jensen Huang mentioned he's been delighted with Intel's efforts in the semiconductor foundry sector.



Given how the semicondutor industry is at the moment, I would expect every single major company to utilize Intel Foundry Services if there are no delays to its roadmap. This is slightly off topic, but you could almost say that these shortages became inevitable the moment Intel fell behind the leading edge. The world needs at least one other foundry to absorb all this demand.
 
As far as extreme gaps between supply and demand go... * gestures wildly at graphics cards *. Hardware doesn't get sat on for that sort of reason.

The product page for Jetson AGX Orin mentioned there's no stock available currently.

Anyway, Jensen Huang apparently officially confirmed that Nvidia's considering using Intel Foundry Services (IFS) in the future. And Jensen Huang mentioned he's been delighted with Intel's efforts in the semiconductor foundry sector.


Good to keep options open. Especially since Samsung's currently being a bit suspect as the alternative :unsure:
 
Given how the semicondutor industry is at the moment, I would expect every single major company to utilize Intel Foundry Services if there are no delays to its roadmap. This is slightly off topic, but you could almost say that these shortages became inevitable the moment Intel fell behind the leading edge. The world needs at least one other foundry to absorb all this demand.
Everything point out to Intel foundry having few wpm(Wafers per month) capability. They need to expand before being able to serve themselves + others. But given Intel Foundry Services aren't supposed to be online before 2025, there's still time.
As far as I'm concerned, Square has already suggested the existence of new Switch hardware. The Dragon Quest presentation last year where they announced Dragon Quest XII had a moment where the interviewer asked what hardware the game was for and was immediately told he wasn't allowed to ask that.
Ehh, I wouldn't take that as suggestion it's for a new hardware. SQEnix has tight lipped Horii since the NX blunder. And honestly, DQ XII missing Switch userbase on Japan would be a disaster. It's probably a PS4/5/Switch/Drake game.
 
Tape out doesn't always leak. Did it leak for the PS5/XSX/S chips?

I think PS5 didn’t, but Series X (and by extension the unrevealed S at the time) was alluded to being taped out in August.

PS5 iirc was simply said to be in mass manufacturing in June/July. Or rather, shown with the gigantic plates in the factory.

Maybe not necessarily taped-out information but we heard pretty much the full specs about PS5 and Series X almost a year before those systems launched... Here's the video from DF discussing the leak by AMD testing the PS5 chipset.

 
Maybe not necessarily taped-out information but we heard pretty much the full specs about PS5 and Series X almost a year before those systems launched... Here's the video from DF discussing the leak by AMD testing the PS5 chipset.


That isn’t quite indicative of the tape out though, especially in the case of the Series X|S consoles.

And we heard about some of the Drake specs in a similar way that we found out about the PS5 and S specs 🫢🤣
 
One interesting thing from the Hopper announcement is that, according to the Hopper white paper, Hopper supports CUDA compute capability 9.0. This isn't particularly surprising in itself, as A100 supported 8.0, and gaming Ampere chips support CUDA compute capability 8.6. What is interesting, though, is that Ada is launching after Hopper, and the leak suggests that Ada's compute capability version is 8.9 (ie SM89), which would be the first time that compute capability hasn't strictly increased with each new launch. For example V100 was 7.0, Xavier was 7.2, and Turing cards were 7.5, then A100 was 8.0, Ampere gaming cards are 8.6, and apparently Orin and Drake are 8.8 (although I can't find any public confirmation from Nvidia for Orin). This does further suggest that Ada is largely an enhanced version of Ampere on a new node, rather than a gaming twin of Hopper.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Ada, as the additional capabilities of 9.0 introduced in Hopper probably aren't of much use to gaming applications, but it is interesting in that it represents an increased level of separation between Nvidia's HPC and gaming architectures.
 
One interesting thing from the Hopper announcement is that, according to the Hopper white paper, Hopper supports CUDA compute capability 9.0. This isn't particularly surprising in itself, as A100 supported 8.0, and gaming Ampere chips support CUDA compute capability 8.6. What is interesting, though, is that Ada is launching after Hopper, and the leak suggests that Ada's compute capability version is 8.9 (ie SM89), which would be the first time that compute capability hasn't strictly increased with each new launch. For example V100 was 7.0, Xavier was 7.2, and Turing cards were 7.5, then A100 was 8.0, Ampere gaming cards are 8.6, and apparently Orin and Drake are 8.8 (although I can't find any public confirmation from Nvidia for Orin). This does further suggest that Ada is largely an enhanced version of Ampere on a new node, rather than a gaming twin of Hopper.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing for Ada, as the additional capabilities of 9.0 introduced in Hopper probably aren't of much use to gaming applications, but it is interesting in that it represents an increased level of separation between Nvidia's HPC and gaming architectures.
Small correction, Orin uses 8.7 and Drake 8.8.

Wasn't Ada supposed to launch before Hopper originally? With that timeline showing Grace on the CPU side in between Ampere Next and Ampere Next Next on the GPU side.
 
Ehh, I wouldn't take that as suggestion it's for a new hardware. SQEnix has tight lipped Horii since the NX blunder. And honestly, DQ XII missing Switch userbase on Japan would be a disaster. It's probably a PS4/5/Switch/Drake game.
Square Enix might end up leaning on a "cloud version for Switch, real version for Drake" model for some future games. For better or worse, what they did with the Kingdom Hearts Integrum Masterpiece collection on the Switch could be a sign of things to come.
 
Conversely, we do know precisely one feature which Drake has which is featured in Ada, but no other Ampere GPUs; FLCG. Of course, it's possible that this is a minor feature completely unrelated to manufacturing process which just happened to be feasible for Drake due to timing, but if we're comparing feature compatibility with the following architecture, then it's as relevant to manufacturing process as anything else (which is probably not very much).
There's also AV1 encode support, which Orin supports, but not consumer Ampere GPUs.

Wasn't Ada supposed to launch before Hopper originally? With that timeline showing Grace on the CPU side in between Ampere Next and Ampere Next Next on the GPU side.
I don't think so since I believe that roadmap was strictly for datacentre GPU architectures, not a combination of datacentre and consumer GPU architectures. And kopite7kimi was explicitly referring to the MCM variant of Hopper when talking about Hopper being delayed, which wasn't announced yesterday.

And Grace has always been scheduled to be available in early 2023, which is the reason why Grace is in between Ampere Next and Ampere Next Next in that roadmap, which Nvidia reconfirmed yesterday.

Anyway, in news not explicitly related to Nintendo, there have been some interesting development regarding Lapsus$.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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Okay, so the Ampere Next in that roadmap would have been Hopper, then?

Incidentally, it looks like Blackwell is going to use sm_100.
Yes, I believe so.

Here's some more details regarding Nvidia publicly mentioning being interested in using Intel Foundry Services (IFS) in the future.


(The quotes in the picture above are Jensen Huang's words in case that's not automatically clear.)
 
Square Enix might end up leaning on a "cloud version for Switch, real version for Drake" model for some future games. For better or worse, what they did with the Kingdom Hearts Integrum Masterpiece collection on the Switch could be a sign of things to come.
Nah, they're not going to do a cloud version for the main SKU. Switch will be a 30 million+ diverse userbase in Japan by the time DQ XII launches. I expect Switch to be the base SKU with enhancements for Switch Next.
 
I'd be annoyed. There's no hardware limitation, Mario Sunshine is emulated on the current Switch.



Arguably the old 3DS wasn't hardware limitrd either, but I'm guessing the SNES emulation that was possible wasn't up to Nintendo's standards and it became new 3DS exclusive.

Yes, it could be an entirely business driven decision to make GCN NSO Drake exclusive. But that'd be cutting off a lot of existing NSO subscribers. Especially if they enable online multiplayer. Even if they don't go the NSO route and make GCN games eshop titles.

What I'd prefer is having N64 and GCN be 4K in Drake. It'd be powerful enough to emulate those games natively in 4K and would still be a compelling reason to upgrade.

Sunshine runs mostly fine on the current Switch, but only mostly and it took a bunch of work to get to that point. It's quite possible and probable there are GameCube games that the Switch can't emulate at full speed and maintaining support for the current Switch would likely slow down development even for games where it can. If Nintendo decides to make GameCube games Drake exclusive, that decision would probably be well justified.
 
Sunshine runs mostly fine on the current Switch, but only mostly and it took a bunch of work to get to that point. It's quite possible and probable there are GameCube games that the Switch can't emulate at full speed and maintaining support for the current Switch would likely slow down development even for games where it can. If Nintendo decides to make GameCube games Drake exclusive, that decision would probably be well justified.
When considering the existing GameCube / Wii emulated releases (Sunshine, Galaxy, Skyward Sword), I would prefer more enhanced ports for future titles, then they can earn back the cost of porting to the original Switch and Drake.

The main reason I'd prefer it is because I don't want the stupid NSO borders or to have to launch these large titles from the NSO UI. Give me native wide-screen for all of these games. 60 fps like SS too.

Thats just what I want. I'm buying Drake day 1 anyway and wouldn't be surprised if Gamecube games were brought to NSO and are Drake exclusive for the sake of easier emulation. But I definitely want more to be done for those games.
 
When considering the existing GameCube / Wii emulated releases (Sunshine, Galaxy, Skyward Sword), I would prefer more enhanced ports for future titles, then they can earn back the cost of porting to the original Switch and Drake.

The main reason I'd prefer it is because I don't want the stupid NSO borders or to have to launch these large titles from the NSO UI. Give me native wide-screen for all of these games. 60 fps like SS too.

Thats just what I want. I'm buying Drake day 1 anyway and wouldn't be surprised if Gamecube games were brought to NSO and are Drake exclusive for the sake of easier emulation. But I definitely want more to be done for those games.
Personally I'd prefer emulation because then we'll get way more games.
 
Square Enix might end up leaning on a "cloud version for Switch, real version for Drake" model for some future games.
This business model has been proposed quite a few times in this thread. While technically feasible, the marketing of such a game may be more difficult than some would think. Explaining the differences between these two versions to the average consumers would be a headache. Pricing them would be another puzzle.

Even if both the cloud and native versions are packaged in one universal install (cloud version requires online while the native version doesn't), some unhappy/confused consumers may be unavoidable.

Off the top of my head, the one solution that might be less problematic in terms of marketing is to sell it as an online game to all consumers, but offer a DLC for offline/native play on the Drake model. 1) The eShop can hide the DLC from the Mariko owners and only shows it to the Drake owners. 2) People who would pay for the DLC are probably enthusiasts, who know what they're getting. There are some precedents of this model: Tetris 99 and Pac-Man 99 offer DLCs that enable offline modes.
 
my biggest issue with a cloud/drake skus is that companies will have to pay out to the third party cloud provider. simply put, if they can cut out that third party because they have a (more lucrative) native sku, they'll do it. Mariko owners are just shit outta luck
 
my biggest issue with a cloud/drake skus is that companies will have to pay out to the third party cloud provider. simply put, if they can cut out that third party because they have a (more lucrative) native sku, they'll do it. Mariko owners are just shit outta luck
Thank goodness I'm an Erista owner.
 
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Yeah, I can see where the idea of "cloud for Erista/Mariko, native for Drake" comes from, but it's just not likely to happen at any significant scale. Cloud releases suck for everyone involved aside from the cloud provider themselves. In the vast majority of cases, either the publisher is willing to get the game up and running on Erista/Mariko, or it will just be Drake exclusive.
 
my biggest issue with a cloud/drake skus is that companies will have to pay out to the third party cloud provider. simply put, if they can cut out that third party because they have a (more lucrative) native sku, they'll do it. Mariko owners are just shit outta luck
Yeah, I can see where the idea of "cloud for Erista/Mariko, native for Drake" comes from, but it's just not likely to happen at any significant scale. Cloud releases suck for everyone involved aside from the cloud provider themselves. In the vast majority of cases, either the publisher is willing to get the game up and running on Erista/Mariko, or it will just be Drake exclusive.
Agreed. To make the cloud/native hybrid a viable business model for Switch developers, it may need to be an NSO feature so that the devs are paying one landlord instead of two (Nintendo + cloud provider); that would reduce the administrative overhead too. Nintendo might require any cloud games hosted on NSO to offer a native version, to prevent (lazy?) devs only release PC cloud games on the Switch.
 
Switch is more than 5 years old and afaik there are only 11 cloud games right now, including 2 Japanese-only. And if publishers have not been interested until now, they won't be when software sales are declining and a decent chunk of the audience moved to Drake or will wait until they buy one.
 
If FSR 2.0 is as good as DLSS then Nintendo went through a lot of extra research for nothing, because they could just use FSR right now on the current switch
There's no way it is. DLSS uses specialized hardware, FSR is a software solution. It's just a good stop gap solution while they wait for the next console.
 
If FSR 2.0 is as good as DLSS then Nintendo went through a lot of extra research for nothing, because they could just use FSR right now on the current switch
But is it? And what's a ton of extra research? Asking Nvidia to hook up the existing DLSS code to their new system's GPU whose architecture already supports it? As big new features go DLSS is a natural, almost inevitable one when you're using a current generation Tegra. Nintendo didn't spend some huge amount of time and money on this.
 
But is it? And what's a ton of extra research? Asking Nvidia to hook up the existing DLSS code to their new system's GPU whose architecture already supports it? As big new features go DLSS is a natural, almost inevitable one when you're using a current generation Tegra. Nintendo didn't spend some huge amount of time and money on this.
NERD has setup their own machine learning upscaler. that might encompass real-time upscaling or it could stick with pre-rendered video
 
If FSR 2.0 is as good as DLSS then Nintendo went through a lot of extra research for nothing, because they could just use FSR right now on the current switch
I think that depends on the performance penalty (or rather, relative performance benefit) that each one gives. I can see FSR 2.0 extending the current Switch's lifespan, but DLSS has the added benefit of offloading the process to the Tensor cores along with RT to make the successor more appealing as a full 4k console.

That, and Nvidia's technologies aren't a strager to Nintendo 1st party titles. Luigi's Mansion 3 is already proof of that.

It's just that with Nintendo, they now have the option of using both. i.e. Using FSR 2.0 for upscaling via CUDA then using Nvidia RTX pipelines for RT using Tensor cores. Of course, it makes more sense to offload both upscaling and RT into the Tensor cores, but people have discussed about how Drake has 1 RT core per SM...or was it 2?
 
I think that depends on the performance penalty (or rather, relative performance benefit) that each one gives. I can see FSR 2.0 extending the current Switch's lifespan, but DLSS has the added benefit of offloading the process to the Tensor cores along with RT to make the successor more appealing as a full 4k console.

That, and Nvidia's technologies aren't a strager to Nintendo 1st party titles. Luigi's Mansion 3 is already proof of that.

It's just that with Nintendo, they now have the option of using both. i.e. Using FSR 2.0 for upscaling via CUDA then using Nvidia RTX pipelines for RT using Tensor cores. Of course, it makes more sense to offload both upscaling and RT into the Tensor cores, but people have discussed about how Drake has 1 RT core per SM...or was it 2?
tensor cores aren't used in RT tasks
 
The former.
Ah, thanks for clarifying!

But yeah, FSR 2.0 isn't going to make the current Switch suddenly output 4k. . It'll still be held up by bandwidth limitations, and there's likely still a penalty for using FSR 2.0 versus something that uses dedicated hardware like DLSS. This Drake chip on the other hand will just find itself having more options to cheat at the 4k resolution game, since there's really nothing stopping it from using both.

One thing that hasn't been answered or I haven't seen anything about is if FSR 2.0 will be open source like 1.0.

tensor cores aren't used in RT tasks
My bad. I can still see Tensor cores being used for other forms of simulation calculations, perhaps things like sound for instance or water physics.
 
But is it? And what's a ton of extra research? Asking Nvidia to hook up the existing DLSS code to their new system's GPU whose architecture already supports it? As big new features go DLSS is a natural, almost inevitable one when you're using a current generation Tegra. Nintendo didn't spend some huge amount of time and money on this.
In general I agree with you that they probably didn't dump a ton of resources into getting DLSS on their next console, but do keep in mind that to get it working to an acceptable level on a handheld device with a strict power budget probably wasn't particularly easy. Getting DLSS and Raytracing into a 10-15 watt portable system is almost unfathomable, and it's why the new device has me so excited, to see how they pulled this off (presumably, I guess they could still remove it, but that seems unlikely).
 
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Ah, I missed the marketing material for it.

I do wonder if Nintendo will be able to integrate FSR 2.0 in time for Nintendo Switch Sport's release, seeing how it uses 1.0 already. Better yet, I wonder if Monolithsoft can patch Xenoblade Chronicles 2/Torna and Definitive Edition to use FSR 2.0 to replace it's dynamic resolution scaling/AA...

I could see them implementing something like this in Xenoblade Chronicles 3 seeing how it might already be using FSR 1.0 given its artstyle.

Edit: Some competitor's graphics cards...Does 2.0 have a minimum requirement spec to use?
 
Ah, I missed the marketing material for it.

I do wonder if Nintendo will be able to integrate FSR 2.0 in time for Nintendo Switch Sport's release, seeing how it uses 1.0 already. Better yet, I wonder if Monolithsoft can patch Xenoblade Chronicles 2/Torna and Definitive Edition to use FSR 2.0 to replace it's dynamic resolution scaling/AA...

I could see them implementing something like this in Xenoblade Chronicles 3 seeing how it might already be using FSR 1.0 given its artstyle.

Edit: Some competitor's graphics cards...Does 2.0 have a minimum requirement spec to use?
Well I don't know if we have a release window for the Open-Source version of it (Although doesn't discount the idea that Nintendo could ask for use of it ahead of time due to their status)

As for min spec GPUs, not quite yet.

Although if it is supported literally on all the GPUs that FSR 1.0 works on then yeah they better get FSR2.0 into games for OG switch ASAP (FSR2.0 for OG Swtich, DLSS for Drake)
 
I do wonder if Nintendo will be able to integrate FSR 2.0 in time for Nintendo Switch Sport's release, seeing how it uses 1.0 already. Better yet, I wonder if Monolithsoft can patch Xenoblade Chronicles 2/Torna and Definitive Edition to use FSR 2.0 to replace it's dynamic resolution scaling/AA...

I could see them implementing something like this in Xenoblade Chronicles 3 seeing how it might already be using FSR 1.0 given its artstyle.
I think that depends on how early Nintendo got access to FSR 2.0, especially with FSR 1.0 using spatial data, and FSR 2.0 using temporal data. I presume not initially with Nintendo Switch Sports and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. But there's definitely a possibility of patches coming after release that could add FSR 2.0 support for Nintendo Switch Sports and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. And I presume probably not for Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
 
I think that depends on how early Nintendo got access to FSR 2.0, especially with FSR 1.0 using spatial data, and FSR 2.0 using temporal data. I presume not initially with Nintendo Switch Sports and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. But there's definitely a possibility of patches coming after release that could add FSR 2.0 support for Nintendo Switch Sports and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. And I presume probably not for Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
Yeah, the addition of temporal data might mean them having to do a bit more work and they'd probably miss the shipping date by then.

Though for something like Xenoblade Chronicles 3, I hope they get to implement it sooner. I too can see them probably not touching Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but it would be very interesting if they were somehow able to retroactively add FSR 2.0 to it and Definitive Edition, although again it comes down to how easily it can be implemented plus having the resources to restest those titles. (I can see it being done in conjunction with a "Drake patch".)

But stranger things have happened, like Mario Kart 8 DX getting a paid DLC pass...
 
But stranger things have happened, like Mario Kart 8 DX getting a paid DLC pass...
Well, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has a huge number of sales since launch. In fact, as of February 2022, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the top selling Nintendo game on the Nintendo Switch with 43.35 million sales. So I don't think Mario Kart 8 Deluxe getting DLC is necessarily a strange decision when taking sales numbers into account.

I don't know if the same can be said about Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition and Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
 
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Will DLSS always be superior to FSR due to the fact it is hardware accelerated via Tensor cores? Surely an open source solution that can run on a general range of GPUs can't operate as effectively as a solution designed in conjunction with specific hardware features to run those calculations?
 
Will DLSS always be superior to FSR due to the fact it is hardware accelerated via Tensor cores? Surely an open source solution that can run on a general range of GPUs can't operate as effectively as a solution designed in conjunction with specific hardware features to run those calculations?
Theoretically yes

Practically, depends on the circumstances. A general algorithm would have lower quality than a tailor-made algorithm, machine learned or not. If Nintendo made a specific algo for their own games and made the games fit the parameters, then no general purpose algo will match
 
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