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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far to early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window? If sales had started to taper off hard in 2021 could Nintendo have had Redacted ready for late 2022? There is an argument to be made that Nintendo did push back the release of their successor primarily for strategic reasons and Switch sales in 2021 would have bolstered confidence that Switch would thrive for a few more years and releasing a successor would cut the Switchs life short prematurely. So how many years in advance would Nintendo have had to decide 2024 was going to be the year? One? Two? Three? Im confident that it was decided way back in 2019 when development began.
Probably after the Covid lockdowns, which had two effects -
1) Everything, from hardware to software development, was delayed a year
2) Sales were spectacular, so said delay wasn't a problem at all, and if anything was to be embraced

I imagine they looked at sales figures and development timelines at the end of FY 2020/21 (so April 2021?) and made the decision then.
 
Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far to early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window? If sales had started to taper off hard in 2021 could Nintendo have had Redacted ready for late 2022? There is an argument to be made that Nintendo did push back the release of their successor primarily for strategic reasons and Switch sales in 2021 would have bolstered confidence that Switch would thrive for a few more years and releasing a successor would cut the Switchs life short prematurely. So how many years in advance would Nintendo have had to decide 2024 was going to be the year? One? Two? Three? Im confident that it was decided way back in 2019 when development began.
I can only assume that Covid played a huge part in Redrakted NG's release, as well as software not being ready.
 
I... Can't say I agree in the slightest?

The Switch screen is huge. Having two would be unwieldy, and heavy, and delicate. The off-TV mode on Wii U for DS was perfectly comfortable, at times better than DS.

Do people forget that the Switch has more resolution top to bottom than both DS screens put together? You could stack them on the one screen and still have bigger, higher resolution viewports compared to DS and 3DS.
I tried the MelonDS homebrew which just does that and that was kind of meh, but just imo
 
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"It is written...only @NateDrake can save this thread!"

Edit: Before this starts to become OT, could we expect Nintendo to utilize UE in future 1st party titles given how they are using it in Pikmin 4?


Pikmin 4 was a expection using Unreal Engine 4, i doubt Nintendo will use Unreal Engine/Unity for any of it major first party games in the future
 
Pikmin 4 was a expection using Unreal Engine 4, i doubt Nintendo will use Unreal Engine/Unity for any of it major first party games in the future
given how Pikmin 4 had Eighting as a major development component, using third party engines to facilitate better cooperation would prove very beneficial
 
Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far too early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window? If sales had started to taper off hard in 2021 could Nintendo have had Redacted ready for late 2022? There is an argument to be made that Nintendo did push back the release of their successor primarily for strategic reasons and Switch sales in 2021 would have bolstered confidence that Switch would thrive for a few more years and releasing a successor would cut the Switchs life short prematurely. So how many years in advance would Nintendo have had to decide 2024 was going to be the year? One? Two? Three? Im confident that it was decided way back in 2019 when development began.
Not a new theory, but maybe there have been several versions of hardware using Drake in development simultaneously which I believe isn't new for Nintendo. Where in another world where the Switch didn't have the legs it does, Drake would have actually released along with TOTK being positioned as more of an iterative successor. The Switch selling the way it did made them go all in on another version of the hardware, that will be positioned as traditional next gen.
 
I had a vision of a completely impractical/improbable/impossible solution to allow for emulation of DS/3DS games on Switch NG and had to sketch out a concept. The idea is basically that the kickstand flips 180° and locks into place on the back of the device. A button on the side of the kickstand releases a retractable white panel which will stick out above the top of the unit when released. A tiny projector on the top of the unit then projects a top screen image onto the retractable panel to allow for duel screen play:

GhXLSCS.png


Can anyone out-stupid this one?
 
If Drake is indeed what makes Switch 2 tick and it was made in 2019 and only now being released, will they potentially have added/tinkered with it to make it more up to date considering it would be a gap of 4-5 years?
 
If Drake is indeed what makes Switch 2 tick and it was made in 2019 and only now being released, will they potentially have added/tinkered with it to make it more up to date considering it would be a gap of 4-5 years?
It started in 2019. Finished in mid 2022 (according to LinkedIn profiles).
 
If Drake is indeed what makes Switch 2 tick and it was made in 2019 and only now being released, will they potentially have added/tinkered with it to make it more up to date considering it would be a gap of 4-5 years?
Personally, I'm taking that for absolutely granted. Given the performance we saw in the leak last year, I'm expectantly 5nm with the performance pushed to the edge. Because that's what we saw. We saw that. PLUS DLSS. Which is very reassuring. Not a performance level that will be out of date for another generation and a half.
 
Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far to early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window? If sales had started to taper off hard in 2021 could Nintendo have had Redacted ready for late 2022? There is an argument to be made that Nintendo did push back the release of their successor primarily for strategic reasons and Switch sales in 2021 would have bolstered confidence that Switch would thrive for a few more years and releasing a successor would cut the Switchs life short prematurely. So how many years in advance would Nintendo have had to decide 2024 was going to be the year? One? Two? Three? Im confident that it wasnt decided way back in 2019 when development began.

Nintendo’s Ninjas may be good at tracking down IP violators, but a Doc Brown they are not.

There is almost no way Nintendo foresaw the continued success of the Switch, let alone the Pandemic, so like you said, Nintendo likely would’ve decided for say 2024 not all the way back in 2019, but perhaps in 2021 or so.

I think another factor is due to the increased popularity of the Switch during this time, it probably forced Nintendo’s development team to shift resources, and possibly focus purely on hardware that existed.

This is one of my arguments for why the Switch “Pro” never happened. Pandemic, Supply Chain issues, Development delays and struggles due to WFH (possibly also security concerns as well), it would’ve been better to double down on Switch, focus on bringing more software to OG Switch, and ride it out for longer.

It probably also simplified their strategy a bit. They wouldn’t have to feel rushed to bringing out the Switch 2, and unlike what happened for Sony, and Microsoft, secure more available hardware to alleviate potential scarcity.

Many of us kept thinking 2023 was going to be the year, but 2024 is all but confirmed at this point. And Nintendo likely decided that in 2021-2022. So whether or not Drake was taped out when it did would’ve also been irrelevant for Nintendo since they could spend extra time for “polish” on hardware like they did for TOTK for software.
 
What is the Assign and Turbo button supposed to do?
Assign and Turbo activate "assign" and "turbo" mode.

(This isn't my mock-up, this is just an OLED Model with Split Pad Compact attached, which provides a rough approximation of what I expect; the exact same body size, the same screen size, the same logo, with more comfortable controllers. I expect the "real thing" to have slightly less wide, but more rounded controllers, and maybe capacitive pressure sensitive shoulder buttons, but visually this is a pretty good shorthand for my expectations.)
 
I had a vision of a completely impractical/improbable/impossible solution to allow for emulation of DS/3DS games on Switch NG and had to sketch out a concept. The idea is basically that the kickstand flips 180° and locks into place on the back of the device. A button on the side of the kickstand releases a retractable white panel which will stick out above the top of the unit when released. A tiny projector on the top of the unit then projects a top screen image onto the retractable panel to allow for duel screen play:

GhXLSCS.png


Can anyone out-stupid this one?
Isn't easy to allow to put the joy-cons when switch is on vertical, no? That way is like have 2 screen. Perfect for emulation. If they use a foldable screen, it can become something like that old mock:

yrMZSGt6ME5QA4QaGRfwvW-1200-80.jpg
 
It started in 2019. Finished in mid 2022 (according to LinkedIn profiles).
Indeed, as such it seems like it's always been planned to be aligned with the engineering work of the Lovelace teams.

Maybe there were Covid impacts and Lovelace was supposed to ship earlier, but two years between Ampere and Lovelace seems normal.

Placing money, I think Nintendo decided sales were good enough to forgo using Mariko/OLED as a Pro model somewhat late in the OLED process and decided to wait until T239 and Redacted was ready.
 
Isn't easy to allow to put the joy-cons when switch is on vertical, no? That way is like have 2 screen. Perfect for emulation. If they use a foldable screen, it can become something like that old mock:

yrMZSGt6ME5QA4QaGRfwvW-1200-80.jpg
The Nintendo Q Shite
 
Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far to early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window?

We heard about new dev-kits which were axed some months later. Many people believe this could have been the rumored Switch Pro/Plus which should have had more power and upscaling to 4K. In my opinion Switch OLED could have been the blueprint for the Switch Pro and they changed it after it became clear that chip-shortages won't be just a few months.

Late 2020/Early 2021 must also have been the time when they changed their plans for a successor because we wouldn't be talking about a 2023/2024 release if the Switch Pro would have launched instead of the OLED. The hardware-technicians in the Nintendo HQ will always watch what their current vendor Nvidia is developing (we had some comments about AI and usage in games from some Nintendo rep), but development of T239/Drake could have started way after the development of the Orin-SoC-series. In the end it will be based of the Orin-foundation, but after all we "know" it will be customized for the needs of Switch NG, but these custom parts don't take multiple years to develop.
 
I don't want to be that person but this is the real switch 2! one of the joy cons is actually being casted as a shadow due to RTX shadows being turned on! Look at those colors on the screen sooo vivid that it brings me to tears. Oh so beautiful 😭😭😭😭.

output image
 
Many of us kept thinking 2023 was going to be the year, but 2024 is all but confirmed at this point. And Nintendo likely decided that in 2021-2022. So whether or not Drake was taped out when it did would’ve also been irrelevant for Nintendo since they could spend extra time for “polish” on hardware like they did for TOTK for software.

The huge surge in 2020 likely raised some eyebrows, a system in its fourth year on the market selling nearly 30 million units was absolutely crazy. So in a way, it was a perfect storm for Nintendo. Development of the new hardware was likely being delayed to some extent, but instead of that being worrisome, they are witnessing their current console smash sales records. On top of that, semiconductor pricing became very inflated in 2021 and 2022, so in real time Nintendo was watching its BOM cost for its new console going up and up. Nintendo was in position to be flexible in 2021, release of the successor was still far enough out that they didn't have contracts in place yet with manufacturing partners and sales of Switch plus inflated cost along with shortages in the semiconductor market gave Nintendo good reason to pump the brakes a bit.
 
The huge surge in 2020 likely raised some eyebrows, a system in its fourth year on the market selling nearly 30 million units was absolutely crazy. So in a way, it was a perfect storm for Nintendo. Development of the new hardware was likely being delayed to some extent, but instead of that being worrisome, they are witnessing their current console smash sales records. On top of that, semiconductor pricing became very inflated in 2021 and 2022, so in real time Nintendo was watching its BOM cost for its new console going up and up. Nintendo was in position to be flexible in 2021, release of the successor was still far enough out that they didn't have contracts in place yet with manufacturing partners and sales of Switch plus inflated cost along with shortages in the semiconductor market gave Nintendo good reason to pump the brakes a bit.

And now, NAND flash prices are dropping too, so it’s turning into another perfect storm for Nintendo.

They could negotiate a great contract for memory quantities, plus storage, meaning fans may get that 256GB of storage, and that 12 or so GB of LPDDR5(X) ram to boot.

Let’s suggest for a moment Switch 2 was originally slated for 2022. Initial thought is maybe 8GB of ram, but because of the shift of about two years, it turns into a perfect opportunity to up the capacity a bit now that 6GB module sticks are available.
 
They could negotiate a great contract for memory quantities, plus storage, meaning fans may get that 256GB of storage, and that 12 or so GB of LPDDR5(X) ram to boot.

50% of software sold on Switch is already sold digitally and that is trending upward on a yearly basis, so it makes a lot of sense for Nintendo to go with more internal storage than they did in the past when most games on their platforms were sold digitally. It also helps offset the burden of the capacity limitations for their cartridges. At least currently, it seems likely 32GB will be largest carts used, and that simply wont be enough for a lot of third party titles. So at the very least, every Switch sold would have enough internal storage for even the largest of third party titles. As much as I can empathize with people are love physical games, there is no going back to the world where you get the whole game on the physical medium with no required downloads. Those days are dead. And even if Nintendo had 64GB carts, it still wouldn't change that fact.
 
Assuming Redacted launches in 2024, at what point did Nintendo decide that would be the year? Drake started development in 2019, far to early to know Switch would still be selling so well in 2023. I am skeptical that Nintendo decided on waiting till 2024 to release a successor back in 2019 when development began. So how far along did Nintendo go before deciding on a release window? If sales had started to taper off hard in 2021 could Nintendo have had Redacted ready for late 2022? There is an argument to be made that Nintendo did push back the release of their successor primarily for strategic reasons and Switch sales in 2021 would have bolstered confidence that Switch would thrive for a few more years and releasing a successor would cut the Switchs life short prematurely. So how many years in advance would Nintendo have had to decide 2024 was going to be the year? One? Two? Three? Im confident that it wasnt decided way back in 2019 when development began.
My guess is that once they decided to be Ampere based, and so similar to Orin, then 2022 was probably the earliest target date (Orin released late Q3 2022). If Drake is fabricated on TSMCs 4N node, then I suspect the target date may have shifted at the same time Nvidia re-committed to TSMC. I'm not sure when that deal was struck between Nvidia and TSMC, but I'm guessing that the pandemic impact may also have been taken into account around the same time further encouraging pushing the date back.
 
I'd argue that if a Switch Pro was cancelled, that means they moved the Switch NG up rather than down the line. Releasing a $350 - 400 machine and then releasing an even more powerful and expensive device with BC 2-3 years later would be needlessly redundant, so if they planned a Pro in 2021 that might mean Switch NG was originally targeting Holiday 2025 or smth.
 
I wasn't super into leaks and stuff when the OLED was coming out I only remember like a week or two beforehand some sellers had posted listings like on Amazon Spain of a new console without pictures. Was there any leaks of the the OLED screen or the rounded dock? I remember the switch Lite when it was called the mini and the backplate leaking I just don't remember if there were as many leaks for the OLED
 
What is the Assign and Turbo button supposed to do?
The Split Pads have back buttons, you map a button to them using the assign button (say, X button so you can sprint > jump comfortably in TotK).

Turbo mode is rapid fire. The controller will fake you're pressing a button of your choice every half second or so (some games, specially old ones, have mechanics and unskippable cutscenes where this is useful).
 
You know, it's still pretty interesting Nintendo never actually made "Pro Joy-Cons" for handheld mode only. Only the Pro Controller which basically only works in tabletop. Just something that feels like it could be tapped into, but the return on investment probably isn't high enough so they let Hori and etc make their own (but miss features).
 
I wasn't super into leaks and stuff when the OLED was coming out I only remember like a week or two beforehand some sellers had posted listings like on Amazon Spain of a new console without pictures. Was there any leaks of the the OLED screen or the rounded dock? I remember the switch Lite when it was called the mini and the backplate leaking I just don't remember if there were as many leaks for the OLED
the OLED was in the firmware as Aula. a new system wouldn't be in the firmware however
 
Pikmin 4 was a expection using Unreal Engine 4, i doubt Nintendo will use Unreal Engine/Unity for any of it major first party games in the future
Wrong. Yoshi's Crafted World also used Unreal Engine 4, and is also another 1st Party Nintendo title.

Before you'll know it, I'm pretty sure you'll say that's an exception too because Good-Feel developed it instead of EPD, which in that case I'd say that's some goalpost moving going on here.
 
I don't see it as strange that they work with a different variety of engines, between internal and external. It allows them some ease and flexibility in developing and learning new employees.
 
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Wrong. Yoshi's Crafted World also used Unreal Engine 4, and is also another 1st Party Nintendo title.

Before you'll know it, I'm pretty sure you'll say that's an exception too because Good-Feel developed it instead of EPD, which in that case I'd say that's some goalpost moving going on here.
not really? the leads for Yoshi was from Good Feel, while Nintendo has some level design leaders. Yoshi was contracted out unlike Pikmin wasn't as far as I can tell
 
I kinda feel like Switch 2 WILL need a joycon and a dock design that do look suitably different from the current look, for the sake of making it easily visually distinct as a new console to the mass market. Like the screen will look about the same since there's only so many ways you can make a rectangle with a screen look different, so the burden of V I S U A L I D E N T I T Y kinda falls on the joycons.
 
I kinda feel like Switch 2 WILL need a joycon and a dock design that do look suitably different from the current look, for the sake of making it easily visually distinct as a new console to the mass market. Like the screen will look about the same since there's only so many ways you can make a rectangle with a screen look different, so the burden of V I S U A L I D E N T I T Y kinda falls on the joycons.
I welcome it as long as said visual identity doesn't hurt the successor's functionality, especially the Joy-Cons. I can see them being either more ergonomic or more cumbersome to hold. I would want some light changes, hell, they could just slap a big 2 on the dock and that would do the heavy lifting, imo.
 
Yeah, a lot of these fake Switch 2 designs seem to be forgetting that the joycon are supposed to be detachable and work independently as controllers. Many of these hypothetical designs wouldn't function that way, or else would be really clunky and awkward.

Agreed. Which bums me out because I wish the joycons were more ergonomic as a whole set. I almost never detach to play with one joycon as a single controller. Wonder if a lot of people do ...
 
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