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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Would liked to watch doctre video to see what his opinion on it was. I Like his videos very level head speculations and banter.
 
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Thraktor said:
This is a meaningless statement, as Nintendo historically haven't included new hardware in their forecasts, even if it's already been announced.
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Actually, they did so for the Wii, the 3DS (combined with the forecast for DS hardware/software), and the Wii U (combined with the forecast for Wii hardware/software). In fact, they even did it for the Switch when it was still just the NX, stating at the very end that "its estimated hardware and software sales units are reflected in the financial forecast ending March 31, 2017, however, we are not disclosing the specific information as it is provisional." So when they finally do announce the Switch 2, they'll likely factor that into their forecast in the following earnings report so long as it's FY25 (which it should be).
 
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For my money I think at this point trying to compare Wii/DS transition to Switch just isn’t gonna work. Clearly we can see that in their latest financials never mind the products after Wii/DS were either poison or heavily flawed that even perfectly nailing the transition probably wouldn’t have done anything. The best bet was always May since that is their new FY + the device would have been revealed or would be soon after.
 
Soon-ish now has a release date:


New episode available tomorrow morning. Time to talk Nintendo and what we could see happen with their 2024. New hardware? A Direct soon? We discuss these and more.
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10am Eastern US. Roughly 9hrs from the time of this [X/Twitter] post.
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That is 7AM PT / 10AM ET / 4PM CEST.
 
Zedark said:
Soon-ish now has a release date:






That is 7AM PT / 10AM ET / 4PM CEST.
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Hmm i was under the impression there'd be some real hard news in this podcast after everything that's happened and been said, so the use of the word speculation here is a bit disappointing. Hopefully there's some cool news but it's better to go in with checked expectations at least.
 
carbvan said:
Hmm i was under the impression there'd be some real hard news in this podcast after everything that's happened and been said, so the use of the word speculation here is a bit disappointing. Hopefully there's some cool news but it's better to go in with checked expectations at least.
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Right, if one went in expecting that Nate would lay down the full spec sheet, then you might need to rail it in. I think that he did mention earlier he would discuss RAM, so I presume he has more than "should be 12 GB or more based on logic" to talk about - at least I think so.
 
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Man, I’ve never seen people deny all but confirmed leaked specs for a console so hard before. Everyone agreed about what the Ps5 APU would be by mid-late 2019, but other communities of people still think that it is going to be only as good as a PS4 docked and sub-Xbox one in handheld with no 4K, HDR and only 8GB of ram with slow SD card storage for games. I guess this idea of Nintendo always having hopelessly underpowered hardware with no real aaa third party support has stuck since the Wii and 3DS. Despite Nintendo having a deal to get the full fat Cal of Duty experience day and date with PC, Xbox, and PlayStation, proving that the next hardware will be at least a steam deck (as that can run cod no problem in Windows 11).
 
Cheesehead302 said:
Unironically a lot more interested in the potential to maybe here one or two tips on Switch 2 than I am to see the Direct next week that is probably just 3ds ports and already announced games.
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This. Perhaps Nintendo has a big game to reveal for Switch in this direct, but I feel like it will be scraps until they release the new system. You need to come out guns blazing for the new system, after all, so it makes little sense to release a big title for the old system just a few months before. Better to wait until after the successor is out so you can promote it as cross-gen. Therefore, my expectation is that the direct won't be that impressive.

Hearing some juicy details about the Switch 2 has me more hyped right now.

(Edit: removed the 'unironically' to avoid the idea that I might be making fun of the quoted post, which I am not)
 
gsr said:
In the public domain, Famitsu sales data paints a very bleak picture for hardware sales in Japan (close to 40% YOY drop for fiscal Q3) and there is also a report from NPD about a significant drop percentage-wise in the double digits for November 2023 in the US.

Fiscal Q3 is usually the best performing quarter for Nintendo where they sell roughly or more than the same amount of hardware as fiscal Q1 + Q2. If we extrapolate numbers from Famitsu and past sales data from Nintendo, fiscal Q3 is looking to be 4.5M - 5M (for reference, this fiscal Q1 + Q2 is 6.8M). Nintendo will not be meeting their 15M target for the fiscal year, but they should be landing somewhere around 13M according to my estimates.
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gsr said:
1. Nowhere did I say that this fiscal year as a whole or fiscal Q1+Q2 has been bad. I've only singled out fiscal Q3 2023/2024. Like I said, fiscal Q3 has always been the strongest for Nintendo in terms of unit sales for hardware and software outselling the other quarters. How do you think it will look on mainstream media and financial press when fiscal Q3 underperforms fiscal Q1+Q2, or when Nintendo revises their fiscal year target to 13M? You can refer to the stock movement in early February 2023.

2. When Nintendo sets targets/projections for hardware/software, they base it on their own data and set it on the belief that they have a high possibility of achieving it. Of course, there have been times in the past where they have either surpassed those targets or fell short. The targets are not meant to be taken lightly in the stock market, if a company falls shorts of a target, it is seen as a failure and a reason to dump the stock. Reverse happens if they surpass it. Furukawa saying "it will be hard to hit 15M" is just telling everyone to temper their expectations but the market doesn't care about the message or reason and will react accordingly to the numbers released.

3. I've only mentioned data that is publicly available because I can't quote the people that I usually speak to downstream who know how the Switch is moving in different markets. But they said the same thing. So it's not unreasonable to extrapolate the numbers on a global scale. Obviously, I don't think it's exactly 40% YOY down because I don't have the full numbers from every market, but not going to be surprised if it's +- a few percentage points when the fiscal earnings are out next month.
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My Tulpa said:
You were using Nov sales estimations to conclude full FY data. That’s what I was referring to. You said they won’t make their 15 million target now, and because of failed expectations you inferred desperation need for successor hardware to replace the Switch as soon as possible. You even now estimate close to a 40% drop YoY, give or take a few points.

But you weren’t alone, I quoted other posters in that reply too.

Anyways, we do know that Switch sales were down only 15% YoY in Japan and down only ~10% YoY from Europe GSD report.

That’s pretty much in line with expectations and Nintendo’s original projection target number.
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Does anything I said make any more sense at all?

It was erroneous to just look at estimated and vague percentage drops in just Nov in specific territories and extrapolate that onto the rest of the quarter and the FY

You were speculating 4.5 million sales in Q3, Nintendo revising down to 13 million for the fiscal year, and somewhere close to a 40% sales drop.

It was a 16% drop and Nintendo even revised the FY UP closer to 16 million :p


[edit: woah…sorry guys, I was replying to my post alerts, forgot this discussion was in this thread and apparently is already 100 pages ago. Lot of catching up to do!]
 
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I think people should keep their expectations in check, Nate clearly labelled it as speculation and while some of it will be informed, no one should expect him to unveil everything about Switch 2 today.

We should get a good update on the information that is circulating right now, maybe a bit more concrete detail and Nate's opinion (!) on how things could fall into place.
 
Kevin said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Nintendo say no new hardware announcement in Fiscal Year 2023 which ends towards the end of March? So why are so many people expecting a hardware announcement before then?
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Darknut85 said:
Fake news. The only thing Furukawa said was that the outlook (unsurprisingly) doesn‘t include new hardware.
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darthdiablo said:
No, that's a common misunderstanding.


IIRC, that's not what they said either.

It is that the sales/revenues estimates DOES NOT factor in any new hardware. Which isn't really surprising either.
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darthdiablo said:
Corporate speak. The alternative would have been "No, we're not supporting Switch this fiscal year ending March 2024", I'm sure you wouldn't expect him to say that.



No, it does not remotely mean that at all. All it means is Switch 1 will continue to get support. They're not going to throw Switch 1 out on the street to die while Switch 2 is on the way.


That's fine, that's your own speculation. Nothing Furukawa said explicitly rules out a Switch reveal between now and then either. Switch 2 isn't going to be released as soon as it is revealed, you know that right?

When console ends and another begins, there has always been overlapping releases. This is no exception.
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Still think there's going to be a reveal before March or are you ready to admit that we were interpreting October's "corporate speak" perfectly correctly back in January?
 
Zedark said:
Nate reacting to questions about the next podcast be like: "Nate the Hate Productions Inc. Is always researching new topics for discussion to surprise and delight our listeners. Please wait for future announcements at a later date."
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Questions and delights are the focus leading into this financial year, we have no surprises to announce at this time.
 
I have only two hopes for the next system's display:
  • Make it laminated, with glass instead of plastic, so the air gap and materials of the display don't wash out the colors.
  • Better color accuracy (I recently bought an LG +view portable monitor, P3 wide-color gamut, and colors POP against my VA Samsung monitor). I know how pure blacks pop on OLED displays, but I think some LCD alternatives are good enough.
There are very good LCDs out there, so there's nothing to worry about if we end up with one. And while it is true that OLED displays can burn in, so can LCDs. I remember owning an LG G4 (first smartphone with a quantum dot LCD display) and the burn in was BAD (thanks to the warranty that allowed me to replace it several times for free).
 
Zedark said:
Nate reacting to questions about the next podcast be like: "Nate the Hate Productions Inc. Is always researching new topics for discussion to surprise and delight our listeners. Please wait for future announcements at a later date."
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That happens with everyone who speculates too much on Nintendo. Maybe we are the next./s
 
Hermii said:
It's a rhytm game, so THE framerate has to be rock solid. Maybe they just couldn't get there in Switch 1.
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Yeah, I'm not totally surprised (well, I am in a way because of Switch's massive install base), but I suspect the game to be in development for Switch 2.
 
Meelow said:
Nate said the Switch version of High-Fi Rush was cancelled, which is disappointing, but I expect Microsoft's full support to start with Switch 2.
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Interesting that the shirt design is still there. I don't think a successor version is considered, I don't think MS anticipates a Switch successor in any way. Maybe Nate thinks this "Xbox games on other console" thing is only for Playstation?
 
9-Volt said:
Interesting that the shirt design is still there. I don't think a successor version is considered, I don't think MS anticipates a Switch successor in any way. Maybe Nate thinks this "Xbox games on other console" thing is only for Playstation?
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Oh MS anticipates the Switch 2.
 
9-Volt said:
Interesting that the shirt design is still there. I don't think a successor version is considered, I don't think MS anticipates a Switch successor in any way. Maybe Nate thinks this "Xbox games on other console" thing is only for Playstation?
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Microsoft probably has drake dev kits for cod 2024, at least I hope, because war zone on the go would sell itself.
 
I would find MS not anticipating Nintendo not having a Switch successor to be weird considering MineCraft, at the very least, would need to work or take advantage of the system. I’m just not seeing a point in only porting HFR to PS if the goal here is to increase the potential consumer base.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
I would find MS not anticipating Nintendo not having a Switch successor to be weird considering MineCraft, at the very least, would need to work or take advantage of the system. I’m just not seeing a point in only porting HFR to PS if the goal here is to increase the potential consumer base.
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They'll have MS and CoD ports but I suspect they'll get devkits after the reveal like everyone else. Many publishers will still be on "wait and see" thing for the successor, I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of MS is a part of it. They're not a fullthird party publisher yet, probably never will be one.
 
9-Volt said:
Doubt that. This feels like one time only thing, Port whatever game to whatever console there and move on. If your console is not out yet, too bad, you're not getting it.
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Do you think Call of Duty is releasing on the Switch?

9-Volt said:
They'll have MS and CoD ports but I suspect they'll get devkits after the reveal like everyone else. Many publishers will still be on "wait and see" thing for the successor, I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of MS is a part of it. They're not a fullthird party publisher yet, probably never will be one.
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This isn't like the Wii U to Switch; third parties aren't going to do the "wait and see approach" This time, I can tell you that.

Microsoft wants to be apart of Switch 2's launch. I'm not here to convince you, but I'm just saying.
 
Meelow said:
Do you think Call of Duty is releasing on the Switch?
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No but I suspect the current upcoming CoD might skip the successor in favor of the next one. If the successor misses 2024. CoD 2025 is a better option for a console that's to be launched in March 2025.
 
9-Volt said:
They'll have MS and CoD ports but I suspect they'll get devkits after the reveal like everyone else. Many publishers will still be on "wait and see" thing for the successor, I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of MS is a part of it. They're not a fullthird party publisher yet, probably never will be one.
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What you’re talking about here is something entirely separate from “MS not anticipating a successor from Nintendo.” Regardless of if they have early dev kits or not, it would be completely out of character for them not to suspect & anticipate something from Nintendo fairly soon.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
What you’re talking about here is something entirely separate from “MS not anticipating a successor from Nintendo.” Regardless of if they have early dev kits or not, it would be completely out of character for them not to suspect & anticipate something from Nintendo fairly soon.
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What I mean is they're not focused on it like actual third party publishers. It's not like "oh shit, a new Nintendo is coming, let's put all of our games there asap!" but more of "Nice, a new Nintendo. I might release few games aside from CoD/Minecraft, who knows...". I don't think a successor version of Hi-Fi Rush is guaranteed at all, there's bigger possibility of them dumping the game on Switch cloud and be done with it than waiting for the successor.
 
9-Volt said:
I don't think a successor version of Hi-Fi Rush is guaranteed at all, there's bigger possibility of them dumping the game on Switch cloud and be done with it than waiting for the successor.
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again, it's a rhythm game. The type of game least suited for cloud.
 
9-Volt said:
there's bigger possibility of them dumping the game on Switch cloud and be done with it than waiting for the successor.
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Based on what? Why would they do that? Cloud releases absolutely gut game sales on the Switch and bigger, more complex games run natively on the system. And one of those games is a MS/Bethesda game too!
 
carbvan said:
Based on what? Why would they do that? Cloud releases absolutely gut game sales on the Switch and bigger, more complex games run natively on the system. And one of those games is a MS/Bethesda game too!
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Based on the successor is not even revealed yet? It's either cloud or no Hi-Fi Rush for Switch at all. Or Nate heard it wrong and maybe they worked out a port after all? The shirt design is there, so it might still end up on Switch.

Sorry but I don't believe in this ULTIMATE console launch for the successor at all. Sure, it'll be the best handheld launch ever with tons of games in the launch window but literally every single recent game? That's a bit much, I think. There will be some omissions, some even baffling, as it is always the case.
 
Do we even know when Microsoft plans to release the multiplatform versions of these games? Do the rumors include any sort of timetable, or are we just assuming that PS5 owners will be playing Hi-Fi Rush by this time next month?
 
9-Volt said:
Based on the successor is not even revealed yet? It's either cloud or no Hi-Fi Rush for Switch at all. Or Nate heard it wrong and maybe they worked out a port after all? The shirt design is there, so it might still end up on Switch.

Sorry but I don't believe in this ULTIMATE console launch for the successor at all. Sure, it'll be the best handheld launch ever with tons of games in the launch window but literally every single recent game? That's a bit much, I think. There will be some omissions, some even baffling, as it is always the case.
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Is Nate saying Hi-Fi won't come to Switch? He said it wouldn't be the MS reveal in the upcoming Direct afaik. The shirt being added and every other insider saying stuff about Hi Fi makes me doubt Nate in this case if he still stands by it. Also Idk what you're on about with the launch of the switch 2. I never mentioned the switch 2 or it's launch.
 
OctoSplattack said:
Do we even know when Microsoft plans to release the multiplatform versions of these games? Do the rumors include any sort of timetable, or are we just assuming that PS5 owners will be playing Hi-Fi Rush by this time next month?
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The timetable is... Eventually. We just know it's happening but there's not really any specific dates given for games that are candidates for ports rn.
 
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