StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Darknut85]

We can see the sales data - the Switch Lite is the least popular system. Sure Japan cares about portability, but even the OLED outsold the Lite there, and the Lite had a 2 year head start. I don't think Nintendo cares about the size of the system, and after the Lite fell off so hard we might see them go straight from launch to V2 + OLED.

The reason is probably it isn‘t dockable and hasn‘t detachable Joy-Cons. If they made a smaller version with the same features as the big version it probably would sell as (or almost as) good as the bigger one.

 

[Multiverse]

Hopefully, none of the new Switch games look like that. This is headache inducing visual noise.

Also, I decided to take a closer look at some PS4 pro games and Horizon Forbidden West looks so bad. The cutscenes are mostly fine (beautiful even) but in-game looks so weird to me. Honestly, worse than Xenoblade interms of blurryness. Xenoblade is kinda blurry, but it’s quite uniformed. It’s not as headache inducing.

Horizon is very weird. It’s overly detailed but also blurry at the same time. Aloy is blurry in comparison to the background and it gets even worse when she moves. That effect is just so off-putting and headache inducing to me. Why did they do that???

 

[Discostew]

Also, I decided to take a closer look at some PS4 pro games and Horizon Forbidden West looks so bad. The cutscenes are mostly fine (beautiful even) but in-game look so weird to me. Honestly, worse than Xenoblade interms of blurryness. Xenoblade is kinda blurry, but it’s quite uniformed. It’s not as headache inducing.

Horizon is very weird. It’s overly detailed but also blurry at the same time. Aloy is blurry in comparison to the background and it gets worse when she moves. That effect is just so off-putting to me. Why did they do that???

I think it's because on PS4 Pro they used a combination of a number of things, including checkerboard rendering and what seems to be a software implementation of VRS (Variable Rate Shading), the latter also used on PS4. Videos/FMVs are used on the PS4 versions, but on PS5, those same scenarios are done in real-time and make use of the fast SSD.

 

[Kintah]

Horizon is very weird. It’s overly detailed but also blurry at the same time. Aloy is blurry in comparison to the background and it gets worse when she moves. That effect is just so off-putting to me. Why did they do that???

It's like a worse and more intrusive version of motion blur. (yeah one blurs the background but you know what i meant)

 

[TLZ]

Careful. I got a slap on the wrist

 

[woodhead]

Would it be possible that, when talking about measurements, the mm sizes are also included? Not everyone is from USA or another of the few countries where inches is used instead of the metric system. As non US American it is already hard to follow some things on the internet with abbreviations and other stuff because it is always assumed everyone is from there.

 

[Christer]

If they made a smaller version with the same features as the big version it probably would sell as (or almost as) good as the bigger one.

Hm, there probably exists a sizable market of parents that just want the cheapest possible entry level version for their kids.

But I think that the phone market has showed over and over again that in general people want and value bigger screens.

So I think if a “lite” is a cheap version there is a market. But if a “lite” is mostly a smaller version, it’s quite niche.

 

[woodhead]

Hm, there probably exists a sizable market of parents that just want the cheapest possible entry level version for their kids.

But I think that the phone market has showed over and over again that in general people want and value bigger screens.

So I think if a “lite” is a cheap version there is a market. But if a “lite” is mostly a smaller version, it’s quite niche.

One thing nobody tried in the phone market is, to give the smaller phones the same top specs like the bigger phones. For example there was never a iPhone pro mini. Googles non pro pixels are smaller (but not really „small“) and also have the lesser specs

 

[BingBong43]

One thing nobody tried in the phone market is, to give the smaller phones the same top specs like the bigger phones. For example there was never a iPhone pro mini. Googles non pro pixels are smaller (but not really „small“) and also have the lesser specs

It's usually because the bigger screen size gives the designers room to include the "pro" features with a larger battery to support it. Same goes for the thickness of the device being correlated to camera quality.

 

[woodhead]

It's usually because the bigger screen size gives the designers room to include the "pro" features with a larger battery to support it. Same goes for the thickness of the device being correlated to camera quality.

Yeah but you could make the smaller version thicker too. Smaller width and height dimensions but thicker is better IMO instead of bigger width and height dimensions but thinner.

 

[carbvan]

The reason is probably it isn‘t dockable and hasn‘t detachable Joy-Cons. If they made a smaller version with the same features as the big version it probably would sell as (or almost as) good as the bigger one.

Well that would require an additional line of smaller joycons for the system to use, an additional smaller dock, and cramming the parts which let the system dock and joycons attach into a smaller form factor, etc. I can't imagine this is a simple or cheap task (at least at launch, it's probably easier now, 5 years later), fitting what's in the Switch into a smaller system, and I suspect the price wouldn't be that much different than a normal sized Switch at the end of the day. And at that point you're offering virtually the same thing for the same price and needing to deal with much more complicated internals, double the accessories, etc. Doesn't seem business smart to create something most people would find inferior due to tech trends and then having to support it and everything that comes with it, when people seem content with how large the system currently is.

 

[woodhead]

Well that would require an additional line of smaller joycons for the system to use, an additional smaller dock, and cramming the parts which let the system dock and joycons attach into a smaller form factor, etc. I can't imagine this is a simple or cheap task (at least at launch, it's probably easier now, 5 years later), fitting what's in the Switch into a smaller system, and I suspect the price wouldn't be that much different than a normal sized Switch at the end of the day. And at that point you're offering virtually the same thing for the same price and needing to deal with much more complicated internals, double the accessories, etc. Doesn't seem business smart to create something most people would find inferior due to tech trends and then having to support it and everything that comes with it, when people seem content with how large the system currently is.

Sadly for me this makes too much sense from a business perspective.
Edit: But I would gladly buy a smaller one for the same price as the bigger one if I had that option

 

[HonzaP]

Well that would require an additional line of smaller joycons for the system to use, an additional smaller dock, and cramming the parts which let the system dock and joycons attach into a smaller form factor, etc. I can't imagine this is a simple or cheap task (at least at launch, it's probably easier now, 5 years later), fitting what's in the Switch into a smaller system, and I suspect the price wouldn't be that much different than a normal sized Switch at the end of the day.

The aditional hardware for docking is just a $0.5 chip that switches DP lanes to the USB connector. The rest of the Lites hardware appears to be identical to V2 switch. Auestion is, whether cooling would be able to handle higher docked clocks (and maybe lite chips are binned chips that cannot even achieve docked clocs?)
A different dock wouldn't be an issue either, most of the switch dock is just empty plastic box. They'd just need different plastic box.
The joycons would be the real issue. They add quite significant cost and different sized joycons would break the ecosystem.
I could imagine a dockable lite in current form factor, with dock and (wired) controller sold as an extra. It would provide cheaper entry, it would provide full functionality without cannibalising the base model.

(I own both launch model and Lite. I prefer Lite form factor for handheld, so I'd like to see the next gen variant)

 

[Baobab]

I think we'd have to dig through old NeoGAF and ResetERA sales threads, but I have no idea where all the consoles landed for their 1st 12 months. I know that the Wii and Series X were difficult to find and actively being scalped for well over a year. Wii was hard to find (anecdotally) for about 2 and a half years. I feel that we've had systems that could have sold well past 20M in a year, but haven't been manufactured in sufficient quantity to do so.

You can find the shipments of the Switch per fiscal Quarter on Installbase forum from Luminoth, the source is Nintendo, i will attach them here:

in the FY 2017/2018 nintendo shipped:

• 7,3 Million consoles in the third quarter(Oct-Dec)
• 2.9 Million consoles in the fourth quarter(Jan-march)

That would be 10.2 million consoles total.
That is actually the minimum quantity of Switch consoles shipped by nintendo for the switch for Q3 and and Q4 in a fiscal year. Which makes sense since that was the first holiday season of the console and the production and logistics improve and get better with time.

For Reference PS5 managed to ship around 8 million consoles in their first 2 quarters( holiday 2020 to march 2021)

Given this reporting from Bloomberg:



An estimate of 10 million + of consoles shipped in a fiscal year( so until march 2025) makes it practically certain that the launch of the console is going to happen in the last two quarters of the fiscal year, which means starting from October 2024.
If you think Nintendo can add 2-3 million of consoles to that estimated, 10 million, number from Bloomberg, because the demand is going to be huge and Nintendo will be willing to pay for additional storage of units for the launch, you would still fall with the earliest launch in September.
Indeed for historical reference, the switch at launch, managed to ship 2,7 million units in march of 2017.


Of course, the shipment numbers for the new switch won't 100% reflect the shipments per quarter in 2017/2018, but the total numbers of shipped consoles will probably be in a similar ball-park, but probably a bit more skewed towards Q4 (jan-March 2025) due to the logistics involved in launching a new product.
So something like:

• 6,5 million for Q3
• 3,5 million for Q4

My prediction based on this reporting would be:
Announcement: March/April
Reveal: June
Launch: October/September

 

[Triistan]

The aditional hardware for docking is just a $0.5 chip that switches DP lanes to the USB connector. The rest of the Lites hardware appears to be identical to V2 switch. Auestion is, whether cooling would be able to handle higher docked clocks (and maybe lite chips are binned chips that cannot even achieve docked clocs?)
A different dock wouldn't be an issue either, most of the switch dock is just empty plastic box. They'd just need different plastic box.
The joycons would be the real issue. They add quite significant cost and different sized joycons would break the ecosystem.
I could imagine a dockable lite in current form factor, with dock and (wired) controller sold as an extra. It would provide cheaper entry, it would provide full functionality without cannibalising the base model.

(I own both launch model and Lite. I prefer Lite form factor for handheld, so I'd like to see the next gen variant)

A dockable lite would also be a great option as second Switch per household.

 

[SheckyCornwallis]

The original TX1 was 116mm2. That's roughly a 10.7mm2 chip. 13% larger is 148mm2. Going by existing estimates, that is not out of the realm of a 8nm version of Drake.

Boo .

 

[Darknut85]

Boo .

The cost of a bigger screen./s

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I don’t see much of a point in a dockable Lite model. The Lite currently has a defined role which has been observed in places like JP weekly sale threads; trying to expand its function is a waste of resources. At that point may as well spend those resources on a Docked model.

 

[Darknut85]

I don’t see much of a point in a dockable Lite model. The Lite currently has a defined role which has been observed in places like JP weekly sale threads; trying to expand its function is a waste of resources. At that point may as well spend those resources on a Docked model.

It wouldn‘t be a „Lite“ it would be the normal model which releases alongside the XL version. The could still make a cheaper or smaller model later.

 

[oldpuck]

I agree that making the Joy-Con taller is all that would be required, but couldn't that make single-Joy-Con mode more uncomfortable? I'm trying to imagine the different ways you could do it, but they all seem to have issues - either the controls are too far to the side, the sticks and face buttons are too far apart, or the controls are too far from the top when in handheld mode.

Sure, there are ergonomic reasons to make the Joy-Con larger, but not technical ones, all I meant.

I'm not here to judge, but I do have a question for the people who experienced Switch joy-con rail breaks and feel like there is extreme force on the joy-con when holding it in one hand. The girl in the image below holds the Switch in the way I hold mine:

Basically how I hold my Switch, yes. Here, lemme show you.

 

[ertaboy356b]

Sure, there are ergonomic reasons to make the Joy-Con larger, but not technical ones, all I meant.


Basically how I hold my Switch, yes. Here, lemme show you.

That's some awesome deep voice man. You can sing some Louis Armstrong with that voice.

 

[Lugia667]

so do we think they say anything on Febuary 6?

 

[darthdiablo]

so do we think they say anything on Febuary 6?

They might or they might not. We were wondering if they’ll say something in the November meeting too, they ended up saying nothing.

If they don’t, I’d be interested in hearing what their plans could be now that Switch sales, while still doing well, is falling fast and they haven’t announced any major new games other than Princess Peach Showtime

 

[oldpuck]

That's some awesome deep voice man. You can sing some Louis Armstrong with that voice.

Once I've finished waking up I'll sound more like Tweety Bird

 

[yusufied]

so do we think they say anything on Febuary 6?

If they do we'll know almost right away. I don't think we'll have to wait for the investor Q&A to be posted.

 

[Shoulder]

Would it be possible that, when talking about measurements, the mm sizes are also included? Not everyone is from USA or another of the few countries where inches is used instead of the metric system. As non US American it is already hard to follow some things on the internet with abbreviations and other stuff because it is always assumed everyone is from there.

I think that’s a fair assessment.

So for everyone here btw, just as a future reference:

25.4mm = 1in

And yes, that is an exact measurement.

For some of the figures being thrown around in terms of screen size, here are some:

6.2in = 157.5mm

7in = 177.8mm

7.91in = 200.9mm

8in = 203.2mm

 

[Bigdog]

Once I've finished waking up I'll sound more like Tweety Bird

A little bit of topic. But you actually have a great tone of voice that would be well suited for giving detailed descriptions of the sorts that you tend to offer up when replying on this forum.

 

[oldpuck]

A little bit of topic. But you actually have a great tone of voice that would be well suited for giving detailed descriptions of the sorts that you tend to offer up when replying on this forum.

Hah - well, what do you want explained

 

[Lancelot]

A little bit of topic. But you actually have a great tone of voice that would be well suited for giving detailed descriptions of the sorts that you tend to offer up when replying on this forum.

Oldpuck's the best at this, for sure. His essays are engaging and informative to read, especially when they're about random stuff barely anyone ask themselves. A great's a great for a reason!

 

[omniryu]

I have a question. Why did Nintendo chose 20 nm for the Switch when 16 nm was already out?

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

It wouldn‘t be a „Lite“ it would be the normal model which releases alongside the XL version. The could still make a cheaper or smaller model later.

At that point the “normal” model is the Lite. Whatever cheaper/smaller model would be rebranded. In this regard what are we even considering XL?

 

[Zedark]

Sure, there are ergonomic reasons to make the Joy-Con larger, but not technical ones, all I meant.


Basically how I hold my Switch, yes. Here, lemme show you.

Thank you ofr making the video, that definitely made it clear. Perhaps your late adoption of gaming may make it such that you use, let's say, less finesse when controlling the game, but I would maintain that a well-made system should be able to handle it regardless. Sounds like a bit of a design flaw in the Switch to me.

I don't play any games with touchscreen, but if a game combines movement from the joystick with touch, then I can totally see how you can suddenly get in a situation where a lot of stress is placed on the rail.

 

[Herb Alpert]

I have a question. Why did Nintendo chose 20 nm for the Switch when 16 nm was already out?

I think that's because it was the node of the off the shelf tegra X1. The soc wasn't designed for their needs.

 

[Darknut85]

At that point the “normal” model is the Lite. Whatever cheaper/smaller model would be rebranded. In this regard what are we even considering XL?

There would be a normal model with a 7-7,5 inch screen (which wouldn’t be called lite), and a XL model with a 8 inch screen. The cut down version which comes later would still be called Lite. Both people who want a device with a big screen and people who want something portable (especially if it‘s camshell) would be satisfied at launch. They could still release a smaller cut down version later or a home only version. Probably will never happen though.

 

[Hermii]

I have a question. Why did Nintendo chose 20 nm for the Switch when 16 nm was already out?

For a multitude of reasons 20 nm made sense.

Nintendo was in a rush because of the Wii U. The 20nm Erista was something that already existed.

The rumor says Nvidia weren't fulfilling their 20nm quota, and would have been fined if it wasn't for Nintendo. That's part of why Nintendo got a good deal.

 

[SunnyDays]

The rumor says Nvidia weren't fulfilling their 20nm quota, and would have been fined if it wasn't for Nintendo. That's part of why Nintendo got a good deal.

Sorry, what do you mean by 20nm quota? Is this related to another contract nvidia has or something?

 

[Hermii]

Sorry, what do you mean by 20nm quota? Is this related to another contract nvidia has or something?

Nvidias contract with TSMC to produce x number of 20 nm chips.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

exactly my fear is that Nintendo Switch sucessor could be a huge console such as SteamDeck

This make me want to math some. Switch OLED model with Joy-Cons is 0.93 pounds, Steam Deck 1.48 pounds. If they were to keep something with the density of OLED and scale it equally in all three dimensions, they could go about 16% farther in each before getting to Deck weight. If they wanted to keep thickness the same (dock compatibility!), the other two dimensions could go about 26% farther in length and height before getting to Deck weight. If it is a 7.91" screen, at least that part would be 13% beyond OLED.

I am not convinced the next Switch will have an 8 inch screen unless there's a second smaller SKU lying around somewhere.

Japan will not be pleased

We all know portables are big in Japan, but is there reason to believe we've seen a size ceiling in what portables they'll accept? New 3DS and New 3DS LL launched on the same day, and LL outsold it handily. Switch was bigger than the GBs and DSs before it, and that didn't cause a problem.

I think we'd have to dig through old NeoGAF and ResetERA sales threads, but I have no idea where all the consoles landed for their 1st 12 months. I know that the Wii and Series X were difficult to find and actively being scalped for well over a year. Wii was hard to find (anecdotally) for about 2 and a half years. I feel that we've had systems that could have sold well past 20M in a year, but haven't been manufactured in sufficient quantity to do so.

Assuming shipment values go in a straight line between known numbers is definitely inaccurate, but the fastest-shipped so far seem to gather around 17 or 18 million through a calendar year. And in most cases, yeah, I think the market easily would've accepted millions more if they were able to.

An estimate of 10 million + of consoles shipped in a fiscal year( so until march 2025) makes it practically certain that the launch of the console is going to happen in the last two quarters of the fiscal year, which means starting from October 2024.

I don't think that's so certain. The most anything launched in October or later has shipped by March is PS5, with 7.8m. The most anything launched in October or later by Nintendo has shipped by March is Wii, with 5.84. It looks like the fastest Nintendo (or anybody) has shipped 10 million anything is probably GBA, but that was still 200+ days past launch.

 

[Hosermess]

Seeing all these mock ups just make me realize that the new joycons are going to have to be shaped different. Maybe not PS Portal different, but if Nintendo wants this to be visually distinctive from Switch 1 and its myriad of color schemes, screen size alone won’t do it, unless… maybe with almost no bezels it’ll be distinct enough… but screen size and therefore console size can always get lost in how it’s portrayed. This thing is going to need a distinctive shape, aka distinctive joycons.

try sticking this in your pocket

 

[Darknut85]

try sticking this in your pocket

I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a Switch prototype with that shape.

 

[Shareholder Chad]

so do we think they say anything on Febuary 6?

Some colleagues of mine suggest they will say "We have nothing to announce at this time". Expectations are dropping for us shareholders it seems (I guess I was wrong in some of my earlier posts this week). I wouldn't be surprised if some of them pull their holdings on Monday. With even more events unfolding in the geopolitical landscape (Some today), There is a small possibility that we might need prepared to wait longer than we thought for various parts (tease, announcement, reveal, release). To be clear for anyone who doesn't know, I do not know anything concrete. Just rumors that may or may not come from people insider trading. I'm extremely interested and nervous to see what happens to their stock tomorrow (Hell, All tech for that matter)

 

[Giancarlo]

Some colleagues of mine suggest they will say "We have nothing to announce at this time". Expectations are dropping for us shareholders it seems (I guess I was wrong in some of my earlier posts this week). I wouldn't be surprised if some of them pull their holdings on Monday. With even more events unfolding in the geopolitical landscape (Some today), There is a small possibility that we might need prepared to wait longer than we thought for various parts (tease, announcement, reveal, release). To be clear for anyone who doesn't know, I do not know anything concrete. Just rumors that may or may not come from people insider trading. I'm extremely interested and nervous to see what happens to their stock tomorrow (Hell, All tech for that matter)

what will be the shareholders reactions, if by june theres no mention of Switch sucessor,will they undertand or they will be perplexed Nintendo refuse to knowledge it next hardware?

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

There would be a normal model with a 7-7,5 inch screen (which wouldn’t be called lite), and a XL model with a 8 inch screen. The cut down version which comes later would still be called Lite. Both people who want a device with a big screen and people who want something portable (especially if it‘s camshell) would be satisfied at launch. They could still release a smaller cut down version later or a home only version. Probably will never happen though.

Per reports, if true, the “normal” model would be the 8’ so I doubt Nintendo labels it XL. If they are pairing down from that then it may as well be called the Lite model; this is especially true if it is a clamshell design where the other isn’t. The stripped down versions later will be called something else. I do agree though that I doubt it happens at all. Nintendo need to keep it simple with one device & those who want something more specific can wait to see if there is a model that fancies them.

 

[LiC]

 

[Darknut85]

Per reports, if true, the “normal” model would be the 8’ so I doubt Nintendo labels it XL. If they are pairing down from that then it may as well be called the Lite model; this is especially true if it is a clamshell design where the other isn’t. The stripped down versions later will be called something else. I do agree though that I doubt it happens at all. Nintendo need to keep it simple with one device & those who want something more specific can wait to see if there is a model that fancies them.

I said it probably won‘t happen, the discussion was about why the lie isn‘t doing as well and that a smaller version still can sell well. For the case the hypothetical device would be camshell, both the small and the big version would have it. Whatever, it seems like I‘m not expressing myself exact enough, so let‘s end that discussion.

 

[ERezaSwitch]

 

[Individualised]

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[ProngoLuvr]

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[darthdiablo]

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[ERezaSwitch]

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