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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Steam Deck is 669 grams (Switch OLED is 420 grams, Lite is 275 grams, base model is 398 grams).

What weight are we guessing for the Switch 2 base model.

I'm more interested in why the OLED Model weighs more. I thought it would've had a smaller chip, equal battery, lighter screen due to the lack of backlight, etc.

According to Nvidia, currently RR quadruples the cost of super resolution. Benchmarking with Cyberpunk shows a slight drop in frame rate, which means that RR is more expensive than the denoisers that CDPR provides.

That’s why I want to see RR numbers with a small number of RT effects. Unreal and Cyberpunk both use a separate denoiser for each RT effect - one for reflections, one for shadows, one for ambient occlusion, one for direct lighting etc. Right now RR is a slight hit compared to running all those denoisers at once.

But what about one denoiser? If it is very similar in that case, then yeah, anytime you’re doing RT, it’s probably worth it to enable it.

Right now there are some cases where RR doesn’t look as good as other denoisers, but I suspect we will see rapid improvements in those areas just like we did with super resolution. I also suspect that Nvidia is working hard on performance and that’s why it’s only enabled in RT overdrive mode right now

Wait, really? Everything I've seen so far (from NVIDIA's official info and GamerNexus's testing) showed RR On to have a 5-8% framerate boost.
 
While things are a little bit slower right now, I just want to take a quick sec and to say how glad I am that this community exists. The build up to a new system reveal/launch is something that I love. For the Switch, I had to do this part on reddit and it was awful. The vast majority of comments were not based in reality at all, and it was exhausting having to deal with comments like "Nintendo has never made a hybrid before, so that means they never will", and "Eurogamer has never been reliable" on a near daily basis.

And while we can get a little out of hand sometimes, the vibe here is so much nicer, and it is so nice having a place where intelligent discussion is possible. So thanks everyone :)
 
From TGS here is Resident Evil Village on an iPad Pro with an M2 (?) chip. As expected it looks a lot closer to the PC/PS5 version than the iPhone version.



I think Switch 2 will be great, but I think Nintendo better not be resting on their laurels and hopefully their hardware is up to snuff because if they were expecting a generation with no competition, that might not turn out to be true. If iOS is going to start getting a bunch of these AAA games that run and look like that and even better as the years go on, it could become a credible gaming platform for console style games for sure.

Once again, it was never about processing power. The iPhones have been outclassing gaming consoles for years now. It’s the ecosystem. Phone users are not going to pay for full priced games.
 
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Once again, it was never about processing. The iPhones have been outclassing gaming consoles for years now. It’s the ecosystem. Phone users are not going to pay for full priced games.
The Iphone discourse is very similar to all those people who proclaimed that everyone would stop using switch and start using Steam deck/ROG ally instead because of how much powerful they were compared to the switch. You have to factor in everything, not just comparing devices from a power standpoint. But since the release of those ''rival'' systems the Switch have continued to sell tens of millions units without problem.
 
Hopefully it's not actually Samsung's crappy 8nm node. If it is, I expect either a disappointing battery life or a bulky console with sub-par performance. :( For context, the Steam Deck uses TSMC's 7nm node.
Well to each his own, I expect it o be on Samsung's "crappy" 8 mm node and yet due to various optimizations perform very nicely. Of course I could end up being wrong, but I think people overstate the importance of the node in itself.
 
Once again, it was never about processing power. The iPhones have been outclassing gaming consoles for years now. It’s the ecosystem. Phone users are not going to pay for full priced games.
Exactly, this a very niche-y niche. People who want to play AAA games typically already own a gaming system, and will prefer to play it properly in a larger screen and with better controls. Sure, you can link a controller to an iPhone, but how convenient is that? Are you really going to carry a controller with you? Will you sacrifice your phone battery life to play these AAA games in a sub par way? If you’re not that into videogames, I don’t see how you would pay 60€ for an iPhone game, and if you’re into videogames, you rather spend it on the home console version. This customer that would buy it on the iPhone obviously exists, but it’s a tiny fraction of the gaming spectrum.

As it’s already been stated, this is surely marketing on Apple’s side to have another selling point to their new flagship phones. It’s very cool and I’m frankly pleased to know the iPhone can do this, but it’s not a threat to the Switch. If a PS3 “pro” kind of hybrid hardware has thrived in the PS4-5+Steam Deck landscape, the Switch 2 will be absolutely fine. They only need a capable system, easy to develop for, convenient form factor and their IPs. And the Switch 1 was already all of that.
 
Well to each his own, I expect it o be on Samsung's "crappy" 8 mm node and yet due to various optimizations perform very nicely. Of course I could end up being wrong, but I think people overstate the importance of the node in itself.
The yields would be relatively shit and they’d be forced to migrate the node by force sooner rather than later so I expect it not to be
 
I'm asking the question repeatedly because the answers I've gotten in response are bad.

"Because they want the shortest announcement to release cycle in modern console history" while giving no reasons as to why they would want that.

Previous arguments (in April) at least could lean on not wanting to disrupt TotK and Switch sales, but now there's just no reason given.
I don't know why you keep asking about August when it's been pointed out multiple times that the System's mass production is going into effect in Nov/Dec. And once a system goes into mass production, it's going to be revealed shortly thereafter, assuming it's not revealed already. That is a big reason. You keep putting words in people's mouths by stating,
Because they want the shortest announcement to release cycle in modern console history
They are giving you reasons, you for whatever reason, are ignoring each and every one of them. None of the responses you've gotten are bad. A bad response to someone is asking, "Then why not August?", over and over without bringing up your own counter-points. You have given one counter-point every single time by putting words in people's mouths. Nintendo has given no indication they don't want the announcement to release to be quick. You're making assumptions about what Nintendo wants to do based on literally nothing in the last 7 years. While others are discussing why they believe it could be this year. They're not inserting Nintendo's fake desires into it like you are. Why are you assuming they want more than half a year from announcement to release? Yeah I'm still catching up and this is late, but I see you saying the same thing over and over ignoring what others are saying. You believe what you want to believe. If you're too stubborn to see another point of view that's on you at this point. You don't want to see another point of view, so you're not going to get an answer you deem as "good".
 
I don't know why you keep asking about August when it's been pointed out multiple times that the System's mass production is going into effect in Nov/Dec. And once a system goes into mass production, it's going to be revealed shortly thereafter, assuming it's not revealed already. That is a big reason. You keep putting words in people's mouths by stating,

They are giving you reasons, you for whatever reason, are ignoring each and every one of them. None of the responses you've gotten are bad. A bad response to someone is asking, "Then why not August?", over and over without bringing up your own counter-points. You have given one counter-point every single time by putting words in people's mouths. Nintendo has given no indication they don't want the announcement to release to be quick. You're making assumptions about what Nintendo wants to do based on literally nothing in the last 7 years. While others are discussing why they believe it could be this year. They're not inserting Nintendo's fake desires into it like you are. Why are you assuming they want more than half a year from announcement to release? Yeah I'm still catching up and this is late, but I see you saying the same thing over and over ignoring what others are saying. You believe what you want to believe. If you're too stubborn to see another point of view that's on you at this point. You don't want to see another point of view, so you're not going to get an answer you deem as "good".
this isn't for certain at all. all we have is a few reports and rumours along with speculation (crucially none on the Funcle side where this supposed production is imminent). as much as we'd all love this timeline nobody really knows.
 


HDR seems like it's gonna be a lock for the new system (not that it was really up for debate) but I'm still not sold on the portable screen itself having HDR support. Seems like it would be too hard on power draw.

Power consumption is a non-concern. I've been using HDR displays on mobile phones for years, as have many people, and not had any trouble with battery life.

People need to remember High Dynamic Range is just that: a RANGE. 400+nit peaks will be small sections of the screen for short moments of time, in most applications.

The important thing with HDR isn't peak brightness anyway. It's COLOUR DEPTH.

Plus if you find those bright peaks are causing you conniptions? Turn the screen brightness down. You don't need to sacrifice colour depth to do that.
 
To a word, what people said about Aula.
end of the day nobody knows, hence it keeps coming up ripe for speculation.

and while we have some very informed speculation even reports on performance which renders the whole thing mute, kinda, there are still unknowns. it might be on a different node altogether (Samsung 5nm) though i do find the TSMC/taped out at the same time with Lovelace products on the speculated node as a compelling argument, along with all the technical analysis.
 
the way I see it if the March release/November announcement theory has any legs we aren't going to need to wait for November to get a better idea. some sort of Funcle Buncle is gonna pop out of the woodwork to say something big is happening. production lines prepping for the new product, lorries full of T239 with Jensen's face on the side arriving at the factory, you name it. the logistics of the operation are way too big to keep even preliminary preparations secret.

if we get to the end of October with nothing on that front I'd wager it's far less likely to be popping off in March. likewise all it takes is one brave Funcle to give the word things are moving and it's game on!
 
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Power consumption is a non-concern. I've been using HDR displays on mobile phones for years, as have many people, and not had any trouble with battery life.

People need to remember High Dynamic Range is just that: a RANGE. 400+nit peaks will be small sections of the screen for short moments of time, in most applications.

The important thing with HDR isn't peak brightness anyway. It's COLOUR DEPTH.

Plus if you find those bright peaks are causing you conniptions? Turn the screen brightness down. You don't need to sacrifice colour depth to do that.
Thanks for clearing this up. I've been seeing a lot of reactions to the HDR stuff. I acknowledge it can be power hungry but I doubt Nintendo would attempt implementing it in handheld mode if it destroyed the experience by gutting the battery life.
 
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.

They released Prime 1 Remastered as a shadowdrop because they wanted people to buy it digitally.

He's just buying way too much into MetalLord's bad sleuthing.

Again, Fable Reboot is a game that will take (at minimum) eight years to make. Games take an extremely long time.
You’re a troll lol
 
Thanks for clearing this up. I've been seeing a lot of reactions to the HDR stuff. I acknowledge it can be power hungry but I doubt Nintendo would attempt implementing it in handheld mode if it destroyed the experience by gutting the battery life.
There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that Oled was designed with HDR in mind, so I would bet it's something Nintendo wants to do.
 
Power consumption is a non-concern. I've been using HDR displays on mobile phones for years, as have many people, and not had any trouble with battery life.

People need to remember High Dynamic Range is just that: a RANGE. 400+nit peaks will be small sections of the screen for short moments of time, in most applications.

The important thing with HDR isn't peak brightness anyway. It's COLOUR DEPTH.

Plus if you find those bright peaks are causing you conniptions? Turn the screen brightness down. You don't need to sacrifice colour depth to do that.
Color depth is only one part of HDR. You can have 10 or 12-bit colors without HDR. Just having the increased color depth would help with some things like color banding but the actual increased dynamic range requires some way to increase the range in luminosity.
 
There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that Oled was designed with HDR in mind, so I would bet it's something Nintendo wants to do.
I figured this would likely be for docked mode or an OLED model down the line. I'm not too knowledgeable about display tech but I've been seeing people say this is a terrible idea on a portable device due to battery concerns and that it won't work well on an LCD screen. So I haven't been sure what to make of it.
 
I figured this would likely be for docked mode or an OLED model down the line. I'm not too knowledgeable about display tech but I've been seeing people say this is a terrible idea on a portable device due to battery concerns and that it won't work well on an LCD screen. So I haven't been sure what to make of it.
I don't think they would implement a feature for only one mode.
 
Why are people talking about 8nm again? I thought we were long past the idea that it could be that.
Until we have the device in our hands and can verify if it's fabbed on TSMC or Samsung, 8N will always be alive. Yes, the energy efficiency and density data we have (Thanks to Jetson Power Tool and Nvidia own Orin data) does not support the idea of T239 being fabbed on 8N. But we can't rule out because we don't know what Nintendo and Nvidia planned or what type of DTCO they have done on 8N.

Below is a funny conversation I made up to illustrate how miraculous T239 being fabbed on 8N would be:
Will hijack this amazing post by Thraktor to post this:


This is how absurd T239 on 8N is 👆. And Thraktor himself shared data showing it in this same thread. It can happen, but would be a miracle work from Samsung, Nvidia and Nintendo.

I want to dismiss Kopite‘s words, but remember “Aula”? People were very dismissive of the thought of Nintendo releasing just a screen-updated Switch. “There’s no way they would do that”, “There’s no point” only for it to be true, and the Switch Pro dream crashed.
Very different contexts. Aula was datamined and was shrugged off because publication like Bloomberg and leakers like Nate or Emily were hinting/saying that a Pro device was coming in 2021. The OLED device was actually known by the people in this thread back then, but everyone thought it was the Switch Pro with an OLED Screen due to the rumors.

As for T239, Kopite was the first to leak the SoC name/number and that it was a custom Orin die. However, he was wrong on everything he said about it and the only piece of info we still can't rule out is his claim of being fabbed on SEC8N. The fact he, recently, said the memory bus of T239 is 64-bit while we know, due to the Nvidia Lap$us ransomware, that T239 has a 128-bit memory bus, does not inspire confidence that he knows anything about it outside of the die name.

T239 being fabbed on 8N is possible. We can't rule it out (yet). But if it happens, it does not validate Kopite information.
 
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The yields would be relatively shit and they’d be forced to migrate the node by force sooner rather than later so I expect it not to be
Yields still not being good (if that part isn't being exaggerated) shouldn't be a performance problem for the end user, and there will probably be a revision around 2 years later anyway, so I don't really see a problem. The only thing I can see happening if it ends up being 8 nm is people saying "the sky is falling, I'm not buying this piece of crap" and so yet again (in a repeat of the aftermath of the Jan 2017 conference) Switch 2 will be more readily available at launch, only for people to realize later things are not as bad as they thought, but by then I'll already have my Switch 2 effortlessly so all's good :cool:
 
Yields still not being good (if that part isn't being exaggerated) shouldn't be a performance problem for the end user, and there will probably be a revision around 2 years later anyway, so I don't really see a problem. The only thing I can see happening if it ends up being 8 nm is people saying "the sky is falling, I'm not buying this piece of crap" and so yet again (in a repeat of the aftermath of the Jan 2017 conference) Switch 2 will be more readily available at launch, only for people to realize later things are not as bad as they thought, but by then I'll already have my Switch 2 effortlessly so all's good :cool:
Don't kid yourself, everyone will buy it no matter the node.

Most people in the hardware thread predicted SWitch would be 16nm and launch with higher clocks than it did. Did that lose Nintendo a single sale? Nope.
 
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to this day I don't think think there is another handheld that can easily shift into the tv as the switch can. I think that and what is extremely likely for the next one to do as well is a huge advantage
 
Yields still not being good (if that part isn't being exaggerated) shouldn't be a performance problem for the end user, and there will probably be a revision around 2 years later anyway, so I don't really see a problem. The only thing I can see happening if it ends up being 8 nm is people saying "the sky is falling, I'm not buying this piece of crap" and so yet again (in a repeat of the aftermath of the Jan 2017 conference) Switch 2 will be more readily available at launch, only for people to realize later things are not as bad as they thought, but by then I'll already have my Switch 2 effortlessly so all's good :cool:
While the assertion that everyone will buy it regardless of the node is true, Ashiodyne is correct that yields would be worse on 8N than on TSMC 4N. First, because it would be a bigger chip (Bigger than Xbox Series S chip), so yield loss would be bigger on 8N than on 4N and thus Nvidia would get fewer chips per wafer. Second, because, per SemiAnalysis, parametric yields of Samsung 8N are worse than of TSMC 4N. So that means clocks, energy consumption, etc would need to be adjusted accordingly to make up for the bigger chip to chip variance. So yes, that would mean a performance problem for the end user (Or more like Nintendo as they would have a big, costly to fab chip, that yields worse, has lower energy efficiency and the device build and battery life is impacted due to it).

All of that, though, doesn't mean that 8N can't happen. It can and we can't rule it out. However, it would be an heroic effort from Nvidia and Samsung on the DTCO front.

IMO, if it is that Nvidia has chosen Samsung to fab it, it's far more likely that an advanced Samsung node like 5LPP or 4LPP was chosen than they do such high effort on 8N. But choosing an advanced Samsung node still means Nvidia is locked with a foundry contract where they don't fab anything other than T239. If it happens that Switch 2 isn't a huge sucess, that would leave Nvidia with a wasted fab contract and tons of fines due to underutilization.
 
I'm back from TGS and based on the current discussions (how many of them are on-going) I sense nothing of note has happened since I last read here?

I don't have a good way to post a photo, but I did run by the Tassei Denki booth and they still had the faux-3DS up and running, but it was not running Pokemon anymore, I believe it was running Silent Hill which I don't think was ever on the 3DS, and they had the pointless (already) 3DS cartridges now flipped over so you couldn't see what games they were "intended to be". So, I'm not going to speculate on who put the word out to do those 2 things, but I guess if Nintendo had a problem with that device before today they no longer do.
 
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I figured this would likely be for docked mode or an OLED model down the line. I'm not too knowledgeable about display tech but I've been seeing people say this is a terrible idea on a portable device due to battery concerns and that it won't work well on an LCD screen. So I haven't been sure what to make of it.
Whoever those people are don't seem to be very knowledgeable on HDR, since HDR LCDs are quite common, and at the same size often as good or better at achieving the peak brightness required for "true" HDR.

LG G6 was a HDR, 1440P LCD phone released in 2017. The same year as Nintendo Switch. And it never had anything other than perfectly acceptable battery life, and having had one myself, the screen was never a huge battery hog.

400nit HDR 10 on a 7.81" 1080p LCD display has been possible with minimal battery loss since Nintendo Switch launched, and is all the more viable, and I daresay likely, now.
 
There are still quite a few games being announced for PS4 at TGS in 2023.

I have a feeling the Switch will be around for a while.
Paper Mario on the N64 released the same year GameCube was to launch, Mother 3 released on the GBA 2 years after the DS released and Kirby's Adventure released 3 years after the SNES hit North America.

The Switch will be supported regardless of a new console's launch, nothing stops completely.
 
Samsung 8nm was ruled out by posters here just because people assumed that Nintendo would not want an extremely electricity hungry (and thus extremely physically large) device.

But Nintendo may think a huge handheld is OK for this gen if they were super concerned about chip shortages in 2021.
 
Samsung 8nm was ruled out by posters here just because people assumed that Nintendo would not want an extremely electricity hungry (and thus extremely physically large) device.

But Nintendo may think a huge handheld is OK for this gen if they were super concerned about chip shortages in 2021.
If they're worried about production capacity, 8nm is especially idiotic.
 
Samsung 8nm was ruled out by posters here just because people assumed that Nintendo would not want an extremely electricity hungry (and thus extremely physically large) device.

But Nintendo may think a huge handheld is OK for this gen if they were super concerned about chip shortages in 2021.
That wasn't the only reason 8nm is unlikely, though. There are other reasons.

And why do you think Nintendo would want to go with the option that will give us extremely electricity hungry device, when that was a major consideration for Switch 1 coming from Nintendo?
 
That wasn't the only reason 8nm is unlikely, though. There are other reasons.

And why do you think Nintendo would want to go with the option that will give us extremely electricity hungry device, when that was a major consideration for Switch 1 coming from Nintendo?
Non of us knows exactly how efficient Drake is. We can (and have) do our napkin math and estimations and maybe it's accurate but only Nvidia can truly know.
 
Well to each his own, I expect it o be on Samsung's "crappy" 8 mm node and yet due to various optimizations perform very nicely. Of course I could end up being wrong, but I think people overstate the importance of the node in itself.

The node is a genuinely terrible stinky pooper. If they managed to make it work like you hope without massive compromise in horsepower it would be a miracle in of itself. For any other node I'd agree with you, but... not this one.

Worried it will run into limitations when it comes to quicker ports from those platforms that don’t necessarily utilize ampere’s feature set

Personally, I'm mostly concerned about first party titles. I have a PC for third party stuff that'll run them way better than a Switch ever could.
 
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Non of us knows exactly how efficient Drake is. We can (and have) do our napkin math and estimations and maybe it's accurate but only Nvidia can truly know.
Sure, nobody knows.

I was however responding to this part: "Samsung 8nm was ruled out by posters here just because people assumed that Nintendo would not want an extremely electricity hungry (and thus extremely physically large) device." which is incorrect. That was not the only reason why we believe 8nm is unlikely.
 
Personally I want a future with a 4nm drake still in a large honking device with huge honking batteries and fans and huge honking clocks higher than anyone is predicting.

Nintendo Switch Honk
 
I'm more interested in why the OLED Model weighs more. I thought it would've had a smaller chip, equal battery, lighter screen due to the lack of backlight, etc.



Wait, really? Everything I've seen so far (from NVIDIA's official info and GamerNexus's testing) showed RR On to have a 5-8% framerate boost.

I'm pretty sure the OLED is heavier because it replaces a lot of plastic with metal.
 
Personally I want a future with a 4nm drake still in a large honking device with huge honking batteries and fans and huge honking clocks higher than anyone is predicting.

Nintendo Switch Honk
OIG.hsfV9n3cLvLMnGSoV3_6
 
Yields still not being good (if that part isn't being exaggerated) shouldn't be a performance problem for the end user, and there will probably be a revision around 2 years later anyway, so I don't really see a problem. The only thing I can see happening if it ends up being 8 nm is people saying "the sky is falling, I'm not buying this piece of crap" and so yet again (in a repeat of the aftermath of the Jan 2017 conference) Switch 2 will be more readily available at launch, only for people to realize later things are not as bad as they thought, but by then I'll already have my Switch 2 effortlessly so all's good :cool:

So they'd have to do a complete SoC redesign (because 8nm is a dead end node) in order to do a refresh to get the battery power they wanted?

Do you think that makes sense? That they'd make the exact same mistake as the original Switch and learn nothing from it, when 4N was a very real choice even years ago? Why not skip wasting time for a refresh and get it right from the start?
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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