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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Why was the WiiU so weak anyway.

It came out a year before the PS4 and for not much cheaper.

Nintendo focused on the Gamepad and they were smelling the same sauce Sony smelt in 2006. Nintendo thought the Wii U would be a success like the Wii.

Honestly the Wii U bombing like it did was probably the best thing to ever happen to Nintendo and Nintendo fans.
 
"Sir, Famiboards just found out the Switch 2 is using a 8nm processing node."

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Why was the WiiU so weak anyway.

It came out a year before the PS4 and for not much cheaper.
It used a CPU that Nintendo dragged from 1999, and an outdated uArch. Although they modernized it with some features, it was still too old.

Said CPUs had terrible cache setups.

And they only had 3 Cores. I think it had an extra ARM core solely for the OS but I could be mistaken. Otherwise, I think 2 cores for games and 1 for the OS

The GPU was based on an architecture from 2008/9, and it only had 160 shaders or so. It was clocked fairly low.

Not only that but it had 2GB of memory, 1 for games and 1 for the OS on some titles. It was also really slow. It gave 12.8GB/s from the DDR3.

The PS4 and Xbox One by comparison, has more modern and much larger GPUs. They featured much better CPUs. And they had more RAM at their disposal.

They dedicated 1.5 cores to the operating system, and 6.5 cores for video games. They also had 5GB of memory available to their games out of the 8GB pool.

XBox and PS4 went in different routes though, MS went with a smaller GPU but a larger on-die cache that was enough for 1080p. Although that operated at delivering over 200GB/s (depending on the model it differs), the thing went bidirectional. So, +100GB/s in one direction and +100GB/s in the other direction.

It’s larger pool of RAM going with DDR3, only nets it about 68GB/s in memory bandwidth from that. And I also remember reading that after some time, devs dropped using the 32MB of eSRAM on the One/One S because it made development more complex and deadlines needed to be met. Pretty much only exclusive software made use of it, otherwise.

Jumping from that, the PS4 also has 8GB but it’s GDDR5 memory delivering, at the time, a whopping ~176GB/s of memory bandwidth. High latency, but it was worth it. Not only that, but the GPU was larger too. 1142 shaders.

It was the leading platform, and so it shows. It was the 900-1080p console while the XB1 was the 720-900p console

Both of these were able to clock their GPUs higher than the GPU, they had more CPU cores and an easier to understand uArch that simplified development. Very familiar and PC-esque environment allowed for developers to better stretch their legs as best they could compared to the Wii U.

And finally, the PS4 and XB1 had much better developer tools to make the process of extracting the most very simple and pretty straightforward relatively speaking, better than their previous gen counterparts.

Nintendo opted to remain with the Wii U and it’s architecture to keep backwards compatibility as perfect as possible, but that came at the cost of hampering their platform and it’s potential due to their obsession with perfect BC.

Meanwhile Sony and MS took a risk to jump ship from the Power ISA and some GPU attached to it due to cost being too high, and the whole process would have been complex.

Intel had good CPUs but poor GPUs that they didn’t care for. Nvidia has good GPUs but they were nonexistent with respect to the CPU. AMD was the only one that had a GPU and a CPU combo at its disposal.


So it’s a culmination of facts that resulted in the Wii U being a lot weaker, the PS4/XB1 a lot stronger, and cost being the driving force behind this all.

Now that Nvidia does provide a GPU+CPU in a single package it does simplify things, even if it’s not NVidia’s CPU necessarily but ARM, Nvidia having the license for it. Nintendo benefits from that greatly.

Nintendo has avoided x86 for a reason I don’t know.

However if they do switch down the road, their best bet is honestly AMD who can give them a good GPU and CPU deal while keeping it efficient and small.
 
I'm not being that specific. I'm just questioning the comparison of Switch 2 hardware speculation to WUST, which I see happening frequently.

By leaked specs I just mean the details from last year, T239 with 12 SMs and DLSS.
At this point the near constant chicken littleing at any news not overwhelmingly positive is super obnoxious. "Its 8nm I don't know what that could mean but its WUST all over" just reeks of smug satisfaction. Everyone's gonna be ok if it's 8nm the "concern" is not needed.
 


He was very insistent that Orin (and T239) would be based on ada lovelace.
Why are people listening to him?

I do wonder about them underclocking for handheld mode though, I think there's no chance that they'd be targetting 4K for handheld. It'd be either 720p or 1080p handheld while they target a max 4k60 on TV with DLSS (probably less for a lot of games like PS5/Xbox).
With such a wide gap between target resolutions on handheld and docked, would they be able to run a 8N chip efficiently enough on handheld mode?
 


He was very insistent that Orin (and T239) would be based on ada lovelace.
Why are people listening to him?

I do wonder about them underclocking for handheld mode though, I think there's no chance that they'd be targetting 4K for handheld. It'd be either 720p or 1080p handheld while they target a max 4k60 on TV with DLSS (probably less for a lot of games like PS5/Xbox).
With such a wide gap between target resolutions on handheld and docked, would they be able to run a 8N chip efficiently enough on handheld mode?

because they were the only source of information early on and posted the chip reference # online before anyone else 'T239'.

maybe they're wrong here but they clearly know things so it's more than worth entertaining. and the first time they've mentioned it in quite a while.
 
some people (probably from this thread) are presenting some of the talking points re the node to them and not much a response aside from


I hope kopite7kimi was wrong about 8N.

How sure are we that Switch 2 SoC will have 12 SM GPU thought? Thraktor (in his excellent writeup here) says 12 SM GPU is way too big for 8N.

I have kind of forgotten how we came up with the 12 SM GPU - is that speculated or sort of firm-ish?

 
I hope kopite7kimi was wrong about 8N.

How sure are we that Switch 2 SoC will have 12 SM GPU thought? Thraktor (in his excellent writeup here) says 12 SM GPU is way too big for 8N.

I have kind of forgotten how we came up with the 12 SM GPU - is that speculated or sort of firm-ish?

12SM & the core count was in the leak w/NVN2 if i remember so it's pretty firm.
 
Someone explain to me why 8nm matters over 5nm or lower?

Is it purely the expectedly hybrid nature, cooling, size etc?

From what we know, it's a great machine regardless.
A number of problems. Like for example, if it's really 8nm, then 12 SM GPU doesn't seem to be right.

8nm means the chip would likely be bigger than Series S's SoC. SEC8N has major power leakage problem. Alovon explains here why 8N doesn't make sense.

Here's an excellent writeup on why 8nm is probably not ideal..
 
seriously though I know this isn't solid info

but if we take at face value that:
  • the system has dramatically faster storage than expected
  • the system has better ray tracing performance than expected
  • the system is on a worse node than expected following the above

then it not actually being a switch squares a lot of circles
Or maybe there are two this time, home and portable ;)
 
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Kopite's pretty good with Nvidia in general, so he's worth hearing out. But yea, regarding the NG specifically, he's been shakier than expected.
Look, at the end of the day, we have impressions from Gamescom. The results tell us that if the chip is on N4, it seems reasonable, and if the chip is on Samsung 8nm, then Nvidia's engineers are freaking wizards.

squirts with spray bottle
Hmm...
Speaking of prospective launch titles, I'll dust off this post from earlier in the year:

Yea, it's another vote for ray traced Wave Race.
...but something that didn't occur to me back then, but is now more noticeable during this time of year in the northern hemisphere...a spray bottle accessory/attachment for timely spritzes to the face would be appreciated in the right situation huh?
The bottle attachment's more versatile than expected.
maybe they'll really lean into the "home console you can take with you on the go" USP: a device about the size and shape of a briefcase, with a screen that folds up and a little slot inside which a new pro controller can be stowed. the device sits open on your lap for portable play.
Oh, Raccoon, you say this in jest, but you got me flashing back to one of my earlier posts...time to dig that one up.

Huh, it's from January. Did your break already start by then or you were still around for this one?

To extend on the point of direct competition against the Playstation * and Series X:
We all agree that the Switch offers a separate area it participates/competes in by being able to be played handheld, tabletop, or hooked up to a display.
With it essentially being a tablet, it also carries with it a set of expectations that people would associate with tablet/mobile devices.

With tv-only boxes, because the PS5 and Xbox Series X exist, there already is a set of expectations to be met by such devices sold for $500 (or close to it) in the 2020's. Now, the Series S can get away with having less GPU grunt because it's in an entirely different price bracket. "Yea, it's the lesser Xbox, but a couple hundred bucks saved is a couple hundred bucks"

Btw fellas, don't lock your thinking into there being only two form factors; handheld and stationary TV-only boxes. There's a form factor in between that's been around for decades; laptops. And people intuitive know to some level that the laptop form factor has capabilities in between handheld and stationary big box. And correspondingly, have its own set of price to performance ratio expectations.
Yes, it's like the 3rd time or so I'm mentioning this. I'm gonna speak this into the existence eventually! ✊

Now, I think that Nintendo should stick with the Switch form factor, so I'll keep this non-specific to any particular company:
Take a laptop, but remove the keyboard and mouse/touchpad. Maybe thicken it a bit, so it has enough depth such that you can have storage area(s) for controllers. 2 or 4 controllers, depending on size as well as the controllers themselves. For marketing, it's not a "Laptop" anymore. Now it's a "Party Box" or "Party Brick" (while emphasizing it dominating tabletop play but still having the option to hook up to a display). Hell, go even further; add a handle. Maybe add some latches to one side to be able to keep it closed more securely. Now it's a "Party Case".
Should be able to comfortably handle 192-bit or 256-bit of (insert latest DDR/LPDDR), depending on exact size and thickness. Hell, if you want a theoretical present day example: imagine Orin (the 32 GB variant), but drop the auto specific stuff and replace the 8 A78AE with 8 A78C, clocked up to maybe mid to high 2 Ghz on a N7 or N5 node (or should we even try to touch 3 Ghz? Hmm...)

More realistically though? Probably fast forward some years into the... let's say LPDDR6X era. Close to 2030, maybe? 192-bit LPDDR6X probably gets you to 409.6 GB/s; close to the PS5. 256-bit would be 546 GB/s. Add in a few generations of improvement to reconstruction techniques. A few more nodes. Further improved battery density. Imagine what one can do in the 28-35 watt bracket. Or the ~45 watt category. Or even that 'desktop replacement' 65 watt category.
Ooh, right, I should point something out for newcomers to the thread, as I don't think that I've exhibited this particular opinion in a while. But I strongly dislike the evolution of tv-only box consoles towards 200 watt behemoths. If I can bend reality to my will, I'd force them to go back towards double digit watts. Preferably the lower half of two digits.
 
Are there any simplistic (in terms of poly count and textures) animations out there with ray-tracing.

I was wondering if a fully path traced game that otherwise was simplistic technically like Wind Waker would look good.
Not that I know of but I'm willing to bet that Shin'en Media is gonna make a bunch of games like that. Just imagine The Touryst with Ray Tracing.
 
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In terms of what the next console ‘gimmick’ will be, I’d be super happy if they were able to add the ability to connect the console to the dock wirelessly in order to bring back multiplayer experiences we see on Wii U. Still make it dockable but I want the ability to be able to use the Switch 2 console in handheld mode whilst being able to stream parts of it to the TV for multiplayer.

In other words, I really want a Nintendoland remaster/sequel on the next console, I need Mario Chase back!
 
Someone broke this down awhile back that they believe kopite7kimi most likely has a contact inside Nvidia and received information about T239 back when Orin and Drake were in the early design phase. Then (because of LinkedIn) we know that T239 had a separate team in which people posted about the years they worked on said team. That maybe what happened is the information Kopite had on T239 was outdated, because they have gone back and forth on whether they believe it's manufactured on Samsung 8nm by using a question mark (because that was the last information they heard).

We've discussed speculation of a Switch 2 on both 8nm and on a more efficient node. What's interesting though is that everyone was being pretty conservative early on and only expecting PS4 level power docked+ DLSS on top of that. The early chatter out of GamesCon along with Eurogamer, NateDrake and VGC's information would lead us to believe that developers were pleasantly surprised by what was said and shown (surpassing what they were previously expecting)...

So something just isn't adding up...
It's not only that most of us couldn't see Nintendo making a Switch 2 the size of Steamdeck using an 8nm SoC, but that system also has an extremely large battery and is manufactured on a more efficient process at that.
 
This node uses a lot of electricity to accomplish the same tasks as the node people were hoping for and thus would require an extremely large battery (making the system itself extremely large) and will get very hot (meaning it will be noisier due to having more active fans).

Second of all, kopite may be the one reliable Nvidia leaker, but he has a less than stellar record of accuracy with T239 information. After originally introducing the model number and saying Nintendo would use it, he got all of the following wrong: codename (Drake, not Dane), core count (1536, not 1024), and architecture (it's Ampere, but he claimed it and Orin were based on Ada, called it "AD10F," made confusing statements about T234 or T239 mixing in "one GPC of Ada" which doesn't even make sense as a concept). SEC8N was also part of those claims, so I wouldn't put money on that part either.
Seriously, what if there are 2 consoles here? Home console using 8n so obviously bigger and portable using 4n?
 
Seriously, what if there are 2 consoles here? Home console using 8n so obviously bigger and portable using 4n?
That would mean that the bigger of the two (8n) got canceled.
And all the pieces would fall into place. (Claims of Switch Pro getting cancelled, March 2024 release, etc.)
 
Someone broke this down awhile back that they believe kopite7kimi most likely has a contact inside Nvidia and received information about T239 back when Orin and Drake were in the early design phase. Then (because of LinkedIn) we know that T239 had a separate team in which people posted about the years they worked on said team. That maybe what happened is the information Kopite had on T239 was outdated, because they have gone back and forth on whether they believe it's manufactured on Samsung 8nm by using a question mark (because that was the last information they heard).

We've discussed speculation of a Switch 2 on both 8nm and on a more efficient node. What's interesting though is that everyone was being pretty conservative early on and only expecting PS4 level power docked+ DLSS on top of that. The early chatter out of GamesCon along with Eurogamer, NateDrake and VGC's information would lead us to believe that developers were pleasantly surprised by what was said and shown (surpassing what they were previously expecting)...

So something just isn't adding up...
It's not only that most of us couldn't see Nintendo making a Switch 2 the size of Steamdeck using an 8nm SoC, but that system also has an extremely large battery and is manufactured on a more efficient process at that.
i remember they used a question mark beside a few details they were seemingly unsure about.

but no question marks about the node this time. doesn't mean they're not still dealing with out of date info though. maybe it's still a best guess cause Orin.
 
That would mean that the bigger of the two (8n) got canceled.
And all the pieces would fall into place. (Claims of Switch Pro getting cancelled, March 2024 release, etc.)
So maybe, that was the cancelled Switch pro..?

We're all over the place now.

Edit: But wait, how'd 8n get cancelled if 7kimi just confirmed it?
 
So maybe, that was the cancelled Switch pro..?

We're all over the place now.

Edit: But wait, how'd 8n get cancelled if 7kimi just confirmed it?
The assumption we're operating under now is that Kopite is sitting on old information that, as far as they're aware, hasn't changed - but if you look back through the previous page, you can find quite a few provided examples of situations where they got the facts wrong and relayed various incorrect technical details
 
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Edit: But wait, how'd 8n get cancelled if 7kimi just confirmed it?
kopite is likely reporting old, pre-Nvidia leak information.

Here are the list of events to the best of what I can gather here:
  • Originally was 8n
  • COVID happened
  • Both Nvidia/Nintendo witness chip shortage. 8n node was a bust and decide to "cancel" that model
  • They delay successor from early 2023 to late 2024, jumping from SEC8n to TSMC 4N, reworking the T239 in the process.
  • Nvidia hack occurs
  • Word spreads that "Switch Pro" is cancelled
  • Nvidia hack reveals 12SMs and 8 core profiles
  • Funcle rumors errupt
  • GamesCom murmurs of BotW at 60fps 4k DLSS and no loading times, Matrix Awakens as target spec
  • kopite still goes with old information (8n)
 
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You would think Kopite knows a thing or 2 about power consumption of Nvidia tech. And he seems to think 8nm in a switch form factor/ power constraints is doable on 8nm.
 
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i remember they used a question mark beside a few details they were seemingly unsure about.

but no question marks about the node this time. doesn't mean they're not still dealing with out of date info though. maybe it's still a best guess cause Orin.
Yes but if I am remembering right when they told us about T239 they were adamant about it using Lovelace, being 8SM and using Samsung's 8N.
The Nvidia hack is what refuted their information and then they updated what they got right and wrong and went dark on Nintendo information after that.

Also back then we were getting early dev-kit rumors about the hardware overheating when using Ray-tracing, so fast forward to now where claims are this device possibly having better Ray-tracing than both Series X and PS5 on the UE5 Matrix demo sounds like something has changed...
 
Yes but if I am remembering right when they told us about T239 they were adamant about it using Lovelace, being 8SM and using Samsung's 8N.
The Nvidia hack is what refuted their information and then they updated what they got right and wrong and went dark on Nintendo information after that.

Also back then we were getting early dev-kit rumors about the hardware overheating when using Ray-tracing, so fast forward to now where claims are this device possibly having better Ray-tracing than both Series X and PS5 on the UE5 Matrix demo sounds like something has changed...
seems like the most plausible theory is one we've speculated on a lot - early design was for 8nm 'Pro' but plans changed and we ended up with a much more powerful Drake as in the leak. makes you wonder why they're still stating it's 8nm after so much time has passed, especially if they're dealing with much older info.
 
Seriously, what if there are 2 consoles here? Home console using 8n so obviously bigger and portable using 4n?
Only way I could see that working is if the 8n console is much cheaper than the handheld. And not a measly $50 cheaper but closer to Series S/X sort of situation in price difference but instead of the difference between the two models being performance it's that one is purely a cheap console while the more expensive model is capable of running as a handheld (but can still be doecked like the Switch)
 
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I'm sorry but anyone equating a different node size (vs what was recently expected in this thread) to WUST is IMO one of the following:

1) Was not there at the time of WUST and/or has no idea about the extent of the dissonance WUST represents in comparison to a node difference

OR

2) Is a concern troll (or just likes to sow panic unnecessarily, but isn't that the same thing?).

If it is 8n (as was repeatedly speculated by many until very recently) it will still be great hardware, and most likely a couple of years later there will be a revision with a newer node (that will possibly mostly go to an improved battery life, same as happened with the Switch).
 
there's no evidence to support two systems, however.

T239 is a singular thing & a hybrid portable 'Switch', that's for sure. it's much easier to explain 8nm away by virtue of this person being wrong.
 
Just saw the tweet from kopite regarding the process node of T239. While it sure is disappointing, especially after speculating for many months and settling on 5nm as the most likely scenario, i kinda expected the worst case despite it all. (Or at least something like a 7nm node similar to PS5 and Series S/X)

But thinking about it now, i guess i can see why they went with 8nm here. It might be possible that Nintendo realized they can't possibly shrink an 5nm SoC down any further for another potential Lite, V2 and OLED model situation just like how we got it with the Switch 1 that used a smaller TX1 to fit in the Lite and save on battery life for all of the newer models. With 8nm node however, they definitely can because 5nm is right there. Of course more factors could be at place here like availability, price, etc. but my mind was mostly set on the above. I'm just uncertain how they are going to fit a 6x larger GPU in the launch model and how they'll manage heat, battery life and all that with an 8nm node on a handheld the same size of the Switch 1, with an 8" screen no less.

However considering the leaks about that Zelda BotW and Matrix Awakens Demo i'm still not worrying about its power at all, despite 8nm. The fact BotW can just run at 4K60 with literally no load times to speak of is a relief, because i was expecting a straight 4K30 with a reduction of load times by about 50% or so. And the Matrix demo just running on it with comparable visuals to PS5 is huge, even if it was specifically optimized to run and look well on Switch 2 and using DLSS 3.1. (or was it 3.5? I don't even know at this point anymore)

Portable mode can still work on 8nm for the more demanding games with DLSS upscaling from 540p to 1080p, it'll still look good enough on it and there'll be plenty performance because 540p isn't taxing to render and I'd figure DLSS won't take much render time to upscale to 1080p, even with slow clock speeds. As for docked mode i think the more demanding 3rd party games will settle mostly on 1440p30 DLSS performance mode.

Or maybe kopite is just wrong and i wrote all of this for nothing. lol
 
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Do we really expect Nintendo to release the new hardware being close to the size of a ROG Ally? The more I think about it, the more I say no. I think, like other members here, that Kopite7kimi posted outdated information.
 
having my breakfast reading the last few pages and it's always funny seeing the same people losing their shit as soon as something goes slightly off rails the current speculations.

Regardless of the node, the most important part is how much of a massive jump it'll still be over the current Switch (which was much closer in performance to its predecessors than a typical next generation console is "usually") and it'll be reflected most in Nintendo own software.

The best 100% scenario was never gonna make sense as there is always caveats when you make a mass audience product. If it's not the node, something else will make the product slightly less exciting but that's just how it goes.

I'll just say I don't mind a bigger device as the Switch already required using a bag for transport so long as the handles themselves are comfortable to hold unlike current joycons (horii split pad pro being the ideal scenario).
 
Maybe this is another DS Phat situation?

They release a fat Switch 2 first and a year later they release a slim version?
 
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