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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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PedroNavajas said:
What about forced "bundles" by retailers!?
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Those are terrible.

chocolate_supra said:
This is what's amazing me about the potential content of any Direct in the near future. With a lot of the big franchises out of the way after this year (except for DK *record scratch* Donkey Kong) I have no idea what games to expect if Nintendo decides to ride the current hardware for another 12+ months. It all becomes a surprise after this point.


71VMbefICaL.jpg
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My retirement bundle. A true value.
 
TLZ said:
Hold on. You have Harvey Norman?? Didn't know we Aussies exported retailers! Usually it's the other way around 😁
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The cheapest, mankiest electronics store we have. Great if they're willing to cut a deal. Not so great if you try and make a warranty claim...
 
BreakAtmo said:
I had a question - is there any chance developers will be able to leverage the Super Switch's RT cores for other tasks, if they don't want to do actual ray-tracing? I remember hearing that what RT cores are really good at is "lots of very small and simple calculations very quickly", which is exactly what you need for RT, but is it useful for anything else?
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The only other use case I've seen for RT cores is 3D audio. RT cores are fast because they're very limited, and you would need to describe your problem in terms of rays bouncing around in order to use RT acceleration.
 
Phenom08 said:
As always people take any annoucement and spin it as much as possible to fit their desires. Theses annoucements help cement no Switch successor first half 2024 at all. First, these deals have all been done in different regions before if im not mistaken. Switch bundle for EU of Nintendo Switch Sports was already released in Japan before. The Animal Crossing bundle with Lite for NA was already done in EU. The Mario Kart bundle is the same bundle we always get, this is just a more aggressive strategy. Why would Nintendo release a special edition red Oled model asking for a premium price and then follow that shortly with a new console also asking for a premium price? Like seriously stop bending reality to fit your desires, Nintendo is a business try to think like one yourself. The Oled models target people that haven't purchased a Switch and people that have purchased a Switch but want to upgrade to a superior model. A Switch 2 would target the same audience, making the red Oled no point in existing if you are following with a Switch 2 just a few months later.

This is all to make their FY goal, which should have already cemented no Switch 2 first half because they would likely need to annouce before or during this holiday season, potentially making the FY goal impossible. So did they intentionally lie and knew from day one their 15 million goal was impossible or they are completely incompetent and didn't think that would harm the goal, pick your poison. If some of you did a better job at paying attention to the numbers, you would see how riduculous some of your takes can be.

Their FY goal of 15 million units this fiscal year is roughly a 3 million unit decline from the previous fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023). So lets break it down, 15 million seperated into 4 quarters; maybe a 3 million Q1, 3 million Q2, 6 million Q3 (holiday quarter), and 3 million Q4. Obviously this is very basic and due the release schedule providing boost in different quarters, it's more likely to be something like 4 million Q1 thanks to Zelda ToTK, 2 million Q2 with Pikmin 4 being the biggest release this quarter, 7 million Q3 with Super Mario Bros Wonder and Super Mario RPG being the biggest games this quarter, and finally a 2 million Q4 with the titles being possible Luigi Dark Moon and maybe that Peach game. So with a 4 million for Q1, 2 million for Q2, 7 million for Q3, and 2 million for Q4 and keep in mind these are approximate figures.

We already have 3.91 million for Q1 of this year, which is slightly below my 4 million prediction for Q1, that of course will be made up by the Q2 for this year being above 2 million my prediction for Q2 this year, so Nintendo is on track. The issue is that Q2 and Q4 likely have no major system sellers, that was already confirmed for Q2 due to Pikmin being the biggest title. Nintendo certainly doesn't think this year will decline by 3 million but all 3 million deficit being in the holiday quarter (Q3), so obviously some of the other quarters will have deficits. Issue is Q1 this year with Zelda was an increase in sales (Q1 April 2023-June 2023 was 3.91 million vs. Q1 2022 of 3.43 million). So the declines have to be from other quarters whethers its Q2, Q3, or Q4. Last Q2 was 3.25 million with Splatoon and Splatoon Oled model, Q2 this year had Pikmin 4 and Pokemon DLC. So I think we can all agree, this is where a decline will take place atleast. Q3 of last year saw the release of Nintendo's biggest opening game in history and still declined by 2 million from Q3 2021 (8.22 millon in Q3 2022 vs 10.67 in Q3 2021). I'm sure Nintendo expects a delince from futher below that 8.22 million in Q3, this is where the issue is though, the decline can't be too much or else Q4 also likely without a major system seller can't make up the difference and the 15 million goal for the year becomes impossible.

Basically this year the Switch can't decline as much as it did last year, so how do you stop it? By being more agressive with the deals this year, Mario Kart Black Friday deal being introduced earlier and Animal Crossing Lite deals to spure more Switch Lite sales. Super Mario Bros. Wonder and red Oled model will have a tough enough time fighting against Pokemon Scarlet and Violet and its special Oled edition. This basically all comes down to the trying to actually make thier fiscal year goal.

Edit: I put some spaces due to the complaints, I thought keeping all that together made sense because it was all relevant information for each other.
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Phenom08 said:
Nintendo is going to introduce a new console and make it playable the same day or days later, yet you're sorry I wrote all that I wrote? Maybe I wrote all that because instead of relying on made up speculation originating from hopes and desires, ill rather use data. Nintendo has given us multiple quarters of data, giving us a trajectory of hardware sales similar to every other console ever released in history. Same applies to any hardware besides just gaming consoles, every piece of hardware (phones, tablets, tvs) has a trajectory. Gaming consoles have different hardware cycles to other types of hardware due to the software that is meant to be used on them. The software leads to different peaks and valleys. Eventually market saturation takes place and it becomes more difficult to sale hardware. Deals and bundles are meant to address this or do you think Nintendo likes giving away free stuff?

You say some goofy mess like relying on facts when that is exactly what the data Nintendo provides is lol, what they didn't provide was your made up speculation of introducing new hardware just days before and then making it playable at the event lol. Lol at new bundles being proof of clearing out inventory eventhough its all bundles they have done before or the same bundle they do annually. My favorite part is how you suggest Nintendo doesn't make their decisions based off of their financial state, me speculating on their financial state will allow me to be more accurate then your speculation based out of thin air and insiders (whom are focused on the hardware and not the release date). Annouce Switch 2 during holiday season and right after you annouced new deals and a new premium priced Oled edition is some how better than using the Switch's hardware trajectory and Nintendo's publicly stated goal.

The funny part about your post is how they are trully sad attempts at being snarky but your post don't make an ounce of sense to begin with.
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Tell me, when was the New 2DS XL announced and released?
 
BreakAtmo said:
I had a question - is there any chance developers will be able to leverage the Super Switch's RT cores for other tasks, if they don't want to do actual ray-tracing? I remember hearing that what RT cores are really good at is "lots of very small and simple calculations very quickly", which is exactly what you need for RT, but is it useful for anything else?
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if they're creative enough. audio, physics, wacky spatial gimmicks (trying to find the video on this but cant)

hell, it's already used for gameplay. it's just so fast that you don't need dedicated hardware for it. like hit-scan guns. shit, Xenoblade 2 has "ray tracing" for it's clouds (ray-marched clouds)

Concernt said:
B. South Korean age system.
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QdsGiaN.jpg
 
TLZ said:
Tell me, when was the New 2DS XL announced and released?
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Those are remodels that were annouced and released after Switch was already on the market. Switch just had new deals and a new edition of the premium remodel annouced and set to release right before the holiday season. On top of that 3DS and Switch aren't even compatible. What do these have in common?
 
Quoted by: TLZ
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oldpuck said:
The only other use case I've seen for RT cores is 3D audio. RT cores are fast because they're very limited, and you would need to describe your problem in terms of rays bouncing around in order to use RT acceleration.
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If you were playing the next big Zelda, and those cores could be used for 3D audio, would that mean you'd be able to hear animal sounds like restless crickets on the ground or owls in the sky and be able to tell if they're below and to the left of or directly above you, and waterfalls or crashing waves that you could approximate the distance from, with echoes or reverberation affected by object density like trees and rocks in the area you're moving within? Haven't really heard of 3D audio before!
 
Goodtwin said:
PS4/X1 will be left behind after this year for most multi platform games. Once those consoles are no longer part of the development cycle, I fully suspect the CPU code to bloat and become heavier simply because developers have a lot more overhead in that department than they previously did. With PS4/X1, developers had to keep a close eye on the CPU budget because it was so limited, but with PS5/Series consoles, the CPU budget has increased significantly. Developers wont go searching for CPU optimizations that aren't necessary. So you could see a game like an upcoming Assassins Creed that doesn't appear to be doing much more than it did previously, but the CPU code is significantly heavier.
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I’ve been hearing that PS4/XB1 would be left behind since late 2021. And yet here we are.
SoldierDelta said:
I do wonder what y'all think those studios would be. A part of me really hopes that Nintendo starts working with studios like FromSoft, CD Projekt, Annapurna, 505, and I've got some hope that they work with Capcom, Konami, Sega and Square Enix (Xenogears remake copium) more.

For now it's just a matter of seeing how Nintendo decides to make their deals. Some more second-party deals seem very likely. All I'm saying is that a Zelda Souls-like would be really funny if it could be made.
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Capcom is a definite yes. The rest will depend on what their priorities are (specifically whether or not they want to rejuvenate their Japanese software sales without risking a sacrifice of Western game sales in the process).
Skittzo said:
When every day is your birthday no day is your birthday
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A very merry un-birthday to you.
oldpuck said:
The only other use case I've seen for RT cores is 3D audio. RT cores are fast because they're very limited, and you would need to describe your problem in terms of rays bouncing around in order to use RT acceleration.
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I would think particle physics and/or collision detection calculations maybe would fit a similar use case? Collision detection is the other use for BVH (which RT cores accelerate processing of).
 
GigaUltraMoon said:
If you were playing the next big Zelda, and those cores could be used for 3D audio, would that mean you'd be able to hear animal sounds like restless crickets on the ground or owls in the sky and be able to tell if they're below and to the left of or directly above you, and waterfalls or crashing waves that you could approximate the distance from, with echoes or reverberation affected by object density like trees and rocks in the area you're moving within? Haven't really heard of 3D audio before!
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you don't need RT for that. Forza Horizon 5 doesn't use RT audio for audio, but how it's used is a good use case for it. audio changes as it hits objects in the environment, some objects are more reflective with audio than others, just like with light. that's a great usage for it rather than the approximations we have now
 
PedroNavajas said:
VR will not be mainstream anytime soon for one simple reason: motion sickness. Therefore, I do not see Nintendo investing much on it.
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AR, if anything mixed-reality ever comes to fruition, seems more likely. Although Nintendo didn't shy away from potential motion sickness with the 3ds
 
PedroNavajas said:
VR will not be mainstream anytime soon for one simple reason: motion sickness. Therefore, I do not see Nintendo investing much on it.
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Plus it sorta defeats the "family gathered around and watching/playing together" appeal that Nintendo tries to go for. Honestly I'd expect Nintendo to be a holdout even if the rest of the industry goes VR.
(aside from little experimental options lie LaboVR)
 
Phenom08 said:
Those are remodels that were annouced and released after Switch was already on the market. Switch just had new deals and a new edition of the premium remodel annouced and set to release right before the holiday season. On top of that 3DS and Switch aren't even compatible. What do these have in common?
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The common part is,

- What difference does it make? The people they're selling to are the same kind in both situations. Announcing Switch 2 after selling off remodeled bundles won't make any difference to these people. You think someone who waited 6-7 years to buy a Switch will be mad? Also, bundle in the collectors, who also don't care.

- Nintendo releasing remodels to sell off stock, clearing storage space.

You're making it a big deal out of nothing really.
 
Concernt said:
The cheapest, mankiest electronics store we have. Great if they're willing to cut a deal. Not so great if you try and make a warranty claim...
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Yea I hardly shop there. I usually go to JB Hi-fi or The Good Guys here for in store. Sometimes Big W. Mostly it's Amazon these days though.
 
0
Terrell said:
I’ve been hearing that PS4/XB1 would be left behind since late 2021. And yet here we are.
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Well to be fair, the slow transition is what happens to most of ps and xbox consoles. Around 2021, most truly next gen games were likely just in early development.

Exact same thing happened in the ps4's lifespan where the amount of ps3 ports majorly slowed down half-way through.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Plus it sorta defeats the "family gathered around and watching/playing together" appeal that Nintendo tries to go for. Honestly I'd expect Nintendo to be a holdout even if the rest of the industry goes VR.
(aside from little experimental options lie LaboVR)
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I can't deny that VR mariokart wouldn't be awesome though. The arcade version definitely was.
 
TLZ said:
The common part is,

- What difference does it make? The people they're selling to are the same kind in both situations. Announcing Switch 2 after selling off remodeled bundles won't make any difference to these people. You think someone who waited 6-7 years to buy a Switch will be mad? Also, bundle in the collectors, who also don't care.

- Nintendo releasing remodels to sell off stock, clearing storage space.

You're making it a big deal out of nothing really.
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New 2DS XL and someone buying a Nintendo Switch are not the same people. New 2DS XL was also announced and released after Switch hit the market. Switch and 3DS also have no cross combatility leading to very little "competition" from Switch and Switch was double the price (Switch for $299.99 vs New 2DS XL for $149.99). Switch Oled might be just $50 less than Switch 2. Someone waiting this long to buy a Switch could easily choose the original Switch instead of Oled. Oled doesn't only target people that haven't purchased a Switch, they target people that are willing to upgrade as well. Releasing red Oled now for current Switch consumers and new Switch owners and then Switch 2 latter for roughly the same price just 6 months later (March 2024) just doesn't seem right. Nintendo releasing these remodels doesnt mean they are "clearing stock". Don't they have to rebrand that stock? The lite even has a different back. Also I talked about the sales goal as well, not just these remodels.
 
Quoted by: TLZ
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lemonfresh said:
never played that version but I havent been in an arcade in over a decade. it looked cool tho from the footage I saw
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It’s the best Mario Kart experience ever, it feels unreal


Re: Bundles apparently they are not holiday bundles but permanent bundles! Thats the price cut we have been waiting for, disguised as a free game

If Switch OLED is not getting a price cut, we can probably expect $449 for Switch 2
 
If we do get vr i could see it being released as a separate device that connects to the console, about 1-2 years after launch or so

Basically the psvr with a nintendo logo slapped on it and a cheaper price tag LOL

like I said a long time ago, the joy-cons themselves would already make good vr controllers, just with some technical modifications. So they really wouldn't need to make any new immensely expensive controllers specifically for it.

I bet nintendo could do a lot of fun wacky things with vr (outside of the insanely thrilling mario kart vr)
first person botw anyone???
 
If Nintendo does VR I'll be kinda sad. I don't get motion sickness, I understand the controls, I don't get "lost" in the real world when I play, but I've never used an VR device that actually works for me. Everything ends up in double vision. I've used Oculus headsets, a Vive headset, PSVR2, nothing. No matter how I calibrate these damn things I always see double. It's practically unplayable for me even though I don't have any other problems with the tech. I think this is another reason why VR won't be mainstream for a long time - there is no 1-size fits all solution. Maybe if I tried out the Apple headset that is calibrated and made with measurements of your face it would work out, but it'll be decades until regular game consoles get tech like that.
 
Saturnman789 said:
If we do get vr i could see it being released as a separate device that connects to the console, about 1-2 years after launch or so

Basically the psvr with a nintendo logo slapped on it and a cheaper price tag LOL

like I said a long time ago, the joy-cons themselves would already make good vr controllers, just with some technical modifications. So they really wouldn't need to make any new immensely expensive controllers specifically for it.

I bet nintendo could do a lot of fun wacky things with vr (outside of the insanely thrilling mario kart vr)
first person botw anyone???
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Metroid Prime would be amazing in VR
 
LiC said:
Worth nothing that the Animal Crossing Lites are the first new color/edition for the Lite since BDSP in November 2021. The MK8D bundle on its own isn't indicative of anything, as they've done the same thing for a few years, but given the above I think it's pretty obvious they're trying to clear out stock.

Of course, regardless of when the new hardware launches next year, this would be the Switch's last holiday. The earlier-than-usual announcement/release of these models, compared to coming just before Black Friday in prior years, may not mean anything either, but we'll see.
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Wanted to correct my understatement of "a few years" in this post, since I realized that Nintendo has actually been releasing the MK8DX bundle at Black Friday since freaking 2018. Here, you can relive each magical year through Nintendo's PR statements on Business Wire:

2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (just kidding about 2024... or am I)

I'm not making a point here, this is just hilarious. It prints money!!!
 
LiC said:
Wanted to correct my understatement of "a few years" in this post, since I realized that Nintendo has actually been releasing the MK8DX bundle at Black Friday since freaking 2018. Here, you can relive each magical year through Nintendo's PR statements on Business Wire:

2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (just kidding about 2024... or am I)

I'm not making a point here, this is just hilarious. It prints money!!!
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whveRV9.jpg
 
LiC said:
Wanted to correct my understatement of "a few years" in this post, since I realized that Nintendo has actually been releasing the MK8DX bundle at Black Friday since freaking 2018. Here, you can relive each magical year through Nintendo's PR statements on Business Wire:

2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (just kidding about 2024... or am I)
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Thanks for the list. All these bundles were released in November, except this year it’ll be in October. Let’s not forgot Nintendo also released a Mario Choose One Bundle in March this year.
 
SoldierDelta said:
...
Idk, probably wishful thinking. Still happy that more stuff will come to Switch 2 from ABK/Microsoft, especially since Microsoft isn't seeing Nintendo as direct competition in the same way that, like, Sony is.
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While this is true now, what I'm wondering is that, since the Switch NG is more powerful and will likely have better third party support than the original, will Microsoft re-evaluate their stance on bringing select Xbox games to Nintendo platforms? The gap between the Series S and Switch NG is much narrower than the gap between Switch and Xbox One S, which may be both good and bad for Xbox. Good, because the Switch NG existing as a somewhat similar platform to the Series S may bring Xbox more ports. Bad, because the Switch NG existing would hurt Xbox Series S sales, even moreso than with their predecessors because of their similar performance levels — and consequently, probably a similar amount of 3rd party ports. But it's the latter that's more significant here, and it's not like Microsoft is doing this to be friendly. I dunno, I'm just not sure that Xbox support on Nintendo will continue, beyond the obligatories like Minecraft and now Call of Duty.
 
Pacobob said:
Hi Nate, it's really my birthday in 8 days, do you have a leak on the Nintendo of the 13th which will be announced on the 11th please? Thanks!
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Bruh I'm just gonna hit you with the same gif as last time.

fake-smile-andras-arato-w2sql73ujr9e17o2.webp
 
Discostew said:
So, what's the possibility of it having USB 4.0? If docked mode can output at 4k60 w/ 10-bit color (HDR), won't that exceed what USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 can provide?
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looking around, 3.2 gen 2x2 (holy fuck that's a terrible name) is still more than 4k60 with 10-bit color (by a couple of Gbps)
 
Discostew said:
But isn't USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 up to a theoretical 20Gbps, whereas 4k60 with 4:4:4/RGB 10-bit requires 20.05Gbps?
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They can always reduce the chroma. Or lower the resolution to 1440p. Or go 30fps. 4K60 4:4:4 10-bit color is assuming the absolute best case scenario. Just getting 4K60 is gonna be a rarity
 
Goodtwin said:
PS4/X1 will be left behind after this year for most multi platform games. Once those consoles are no longer part of the development cycle, I fully suspect the CPU code to bloat and become heavier simply because developers have a lot more overhead in that department than they previously did. With PS4/X1, developers had to keep a close eye on the CPU budget because it was so limited, but with PS5/Series consoles, the CPU budget has increased significantly. Developers wont go searching for CPU optimizations that aren't necessary. So you could see a game like an upcoming Assassins Creed that doesn't appear to be doing much more than it did previously, but the CPU code is significantly heavier.
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I guess I should keep my fingers crossed that they also make those games for Switch 2 and it forces them to optimise the CPU code more than they might otherwise.
 
Phenom08 said:
New 2DS XL and someone buying a Nintendo Switch are not the same people. New 2DS XL was also announced and released after Switch hit the market. Switch and 3DS also have no cross combatility leading to very little "competition" from Switch and Switch was double the price (Switch for $299.99 vs New 2DS XL for $149.99). Switch Oled might be just $50 less than Switch 2. Someone waiting this long to buy a Switch could easily choose the original Switch instead of Oled. Oled doesn't only target people that haven't purchased a Switch, they target people that are willing to upgrade as well. Releasing red Oled now for current Switch consumers and new Switch owners and then Switch 2 latter for roughly the same price just 6 months later (March 2024) just doesn't seem right. Nintendo releasing these remodels doesnt mean they are "clearing stock". Don't they have to rebrand that stock? The lite even has a different back. Also I talked about the sales goal as well, not just these remodels.
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Oh well. You're gone.

eh-meh.gif
 
Discostew said:
But isn't USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 up to a theoretical 20Gbps, whereas 4k60 with 4:4:4/RGB 10-bit requires 20.05Gbps?
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This has been brought up before (in the context of DisplayPort link rates), but the source I can find says that the above requires a data rate of 15.68 Gpbs, which is inside the DisplayPort link rates we were discussing at that time and within the speed of USB 3.2.
 
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