If they keep the lite on the market as a value choice, they'll hit it.With Nintendo selling almost 130 million switch consoles as of end of June and a new console seemingly imminent, how likely is it that the switch dethrones both the DS as the best selling handheld console of all time and the ps2 as the best selling console of all time?
My personal projection is that it may just be out of reach, I can see the switch stalling at around 150 million consoles sales total lifetime.
My reasoning is that once switch 2 is released I believe all manufacturing partners will be transitioned to manufacturing switch 2 over time, I anticipate switch 1 will cease manufacture within a year of switch twos release.
If Nintendo hits their current target, by end of March 2024 they will be at around 142 million consoles sold. It's around this time I expect the switch 2 to be revealed which will likely slow momentum. Therefore I think a prediction of 8 million switch units sold for FY2025 seems reasonable.
If we assume switch 2 releases around September - November 2024, it will have been on the Market for six months when FY2026 starts in April 2025 and manufacturing capacity, and thus availability will likely have ramped up by then stiffling switch 1 demand. Assuming they hit those aforementioned targets could they sell another 5 million switch units with switch 2 on the market? With some final price drops for that year, maybe, but it's going to be a struggle in my opinion.
Hence I think they may just about fall short.