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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
1. Only one console in the last 39 years has had its initial release date be from April to August (inclusive). This was the N64 due to the Mario 64 delays. It's not impossible to release in this timeframe, but it's very unlikely as every console ever made (post-NES) has aimed to release in the holidays or right before.

2. The other timeframes left before Fall 2024 are the rest of 2023 or Q1 2024.

3. A release in 2023 would involve Nintendo revealing a console out of nowhere (within the next couple of weeks) and having by far the shortest reveal to release of any console in gaming history. It would also involve the next console launching with Mario Wonder and Mario RPG as its big games which would be very weird as launch games.

4. This leaves Q1 2024 as the only semi-realistic release window before Fall 2024, but this window already only has 8 months until it closes and there's just nowhere close to any serious chatter about a major upcoming Switch 2 blowout that would need to happen within the next 3 months for me to believe in a Q1 2024 release.

5. This leaves Fall 2024 as the earliest realistic release window.
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Fully agreed on everything here. Are there even people still on team 2023? Haven't been here in months.
 
ILikeFeet said:
they have before, through the linux updates. they won't acknowledge stolen data which is why they keep referring to Orin despite the fact we know it's not a cut down Orin

also, they keep bringing up that comment by Furukawa about being cautious of the transition and somehow tied it in with backwards compatibility fears. can't say I like the narrative, but it's pretty clear they just don't know anything of merit right now
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I wish the narrative would stop being peddled. It has BC.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
But where is the movement.

There's... nothing.
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👇👇👇
oldpuck said:
In December 2021, Nvidia was working with a software simulator

In April they were working on the tap delay in SD controller. This is a case where tiny voltage changes can cause bugs, and this is setting how wide the tolerances would be, and the data came from the SSG team. It's likely "SSG Team" is "slow slow global", which is a chip validation phase, along with FFG ("fast fast global"). This occurs right before sampling.

In March, the contracted designers for T239 left the project. That was one LinkedIn Profile.

In April, electrical engineers began working on validation tools for T239. This is only possible once the hardware is finalized.
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There's only "nothing" if you ignore the stuff that's there. Which is what you were insisting the rest of us should do. Which is what started this.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
But where is the movement.

There's... nothing.
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You're not listening to people before you respond.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
There is like no chance they finalized this 2.5 years (at minimum) before release.
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You assert this based on no data then...
chocolate_supra said:
Soooooooo we should ignore evidence of tapeout because the timing wouldn't easily match the decision you've made as to when Nintendo will release the system?
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You aren't asked about the release timing, you're asked about your out of nowhere assertion about tape out...
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"as to when" ?

It's not coming until Fall 2024 most likely. I don't know if that's the optimal release time, but it's just way more likely than any time before Fall 2024. There's no room left in 2023, a Q1 release seems very unlikely due to how late in the game we already are, and only one system in the last 39 years has launched between April and August inclusive (the N64 due to Mario 64 delays)

I'm not making a call on optimal release time, I'm just stating something obvious.
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...which you ignore in favor of the discussion you want to have. @chocolate_supra politely brings you back to the topic...
chocolate_supra said:
😅

I appreciate the strength of the theories backing your statements. But if we have evidence pointing towards movement,
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ie, the tape out. Which you assert can't have happened when the evidence says it happened, because that would conflict with your theory of when the release is happening.

(it doesn't conflict by the way, I also think it's a fall 2024 release)
chocolate_supra said:
you understand why that lands a bit weird, right?
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It is! It is a bit weird - and exhausting.
 
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Mekanos said:
What’s the latest people think they can announce it for a 2023 release?
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michael-caine-never.gif
 
Thraktor said:
So, if it's not Samsung 8nm, what is it?

Well, from the Orin data we know that a 12 SM Ampere GPU on Samsung 8nm at the peak efficiency clocks of 470MHz would consume a bit over 6W, which means we need something twice as power efficient as Samsung 8nm. There are a couple of small differences between T239 and Orin's GPUs, like smaller tensor cores and improved clock-gating, but they are likely to have only marginal impact on power consumption, nowhere near the 2x we need, which will have to come from a better manufacturing process.

One note to add here is that we actually need a bit more than a 2x efficiency improvement over 8nm, because as the manufacturing process changes, so does the peak efficiency clock. The peak efficiency clock will typically increase as an architecture is moved to a more efficient manufacturing process, as the improved process allows higher clocks at given voltages. From DVFS tables in Linux, we know that Mariko's peak efficiency clock on 16nm/12nm is likely 384MHz. That's increased to around 470MHz for Ampere on 8nm, and will increase further as it's migrated to more advanced processes.

I'd expect peak efficiency clocks of around 500-600MHz on improved processes, which means that instead of running at 470MHz the chip would need to run at 500-600MHz within 3W to make sense. A clock of 550MHz would consume around 7.5W on 8nm, so we would need a 2.5x improvement in efficiency instead.

So, what manufacturing process can give a 2.5x improvement in efficiency over Samsung 8nm? The only reasonable answer I can think of is TSMC's 5nm/4nm processes, including 4N, which just happens to be the process Nvidia is using for every other product (outside of acquired Mellanox products) from this point onwards. In Nvidia's Ada white paper (an architecture very similar to Ampere), they claim a 2x improvement in performance per Watt, which appears to come almost exclusively from the move to TSMC's 4N process, plus some memory changes.

They don't provide any hard numbers for similarly sized GPUs at the same clock speed, with only a vague unlabelled marketing graph here, but they recently announced the Ada based RTX 4000 SFF workstation GPU, which has 48 SMs clocked at 1,565MHz and a 70W TDP. The older Ampere RTX A4000 also had 48 SMs clocked at 1,560MHz and had a TDP of 140W. There are differences in the memory setup, and TDPs don't necessarily reflect real world power consumption, but the indication is that the move from Ampere on Samsung 8nm to an Ampere-derived architecture on TSMC 4N reduces power consumption by about a factor of 2.
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Pretty late to point this out, but something I'd like to mention that with the comparison of the ADA 4000 SFF vs A4000, is that Lovelace (Desktop or Laptop) is incapable of running below its voltage floor of 865mv-900mv, where as the A4000 in many scenarios will run well below this in operation, depending on load. This makes using the ADA 4000 & the A4000 as a direct means of comparison to be actually lowballing the potential difference in 8N Samsung & 4N TSMC in terms of potential efficiency, which also proves to be a massive consequence in general with power limited scenarios.
I would imagine that in any case, T239's minimum operating voltage should be well lower than with Lovelace & not have this issue (One theory I have is that the high operating voltage is a result of L2 clock sharing the same clock domain as core clock. T239 clocking like crap relative to Desktop Lovelace would pretty much render this issue moot, assuming the Tegra's cache doesn't already operate on a separate clock domain/voltage rail to begin with).
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Except these patterns have underlining theories that make sense.

1. Systems don't release in April to August (inclusive) because every game system launch has aimed for the holidays and the ones that miss the holidays miss by only a few months. The N64 is the only exception post-Famicom.

2. When you are near release of a system, you must inform 1000s of people so tons of leaks and chatter will happen. None of that is happening right now.

This isn't pattern chasing, the theory backing both is strong.
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Super Nintendo launched in the US during August
Game Boy was an April-August window for Japan and the US
GBA also released within a similar (March - June) window, same with 3DS.
Also didn't this forum just make a big deal about the Famicom's 40th Anniversary, marking the system's July release?

I mean I get your reasoning for that assessment as November is a common release window for consoles but it's been contradicted too many times to be considered an exception to the rule.
 
TomNookYankees said:
The argument you're making that patterns are not a form of evidence is absurd.
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Patterns are evidence that something has happened in the past, sure. But saying "this thing usually happens" isn't evidence that it will happen again, nor does it disprove something that we do have evidence of occurring.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Patterns are evidence that something has happened in the past, sure. But saying "this thing usually happens" isn't evidence that it will happen again, nor does it disprove something that we do have evidence of occurring.
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Yes everyone is aware of the paradox of induction, but saying something is evidence doesn't mean that evidence has to be 100% conclusive. Right now the evidence mostly points to a 2024 H2 launch. That's not a gurantee, but it's simply an application of the same patterns that (correctly) predicted the switch 2 wouldn't come out in 2023.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Except these patterns have underlining theories that make sense.

1. Systems don't release in April to August (inclusive) because every game system launch has aimed for the holidays and the ones that miss the holidays miss by only a few months. The N64 is the only exception post-Famicom.

2. When you are near release of a system, you must inform 1000s of people so tons of leaks and chatter will happen. None of that is happening right now.

This isn't pattern chasing, the theory backing both is strong.
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There's a reason for the delay that your evidence points to as possible: Nintendo is waiting for their first party software to be ready before they announce their next hardware. They probably expected the software to be ready sooner, but obviously COVID would cause software delays.
 
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TomNookYankees said:
Yes everyone is aware of the paradox of induction, but saying something is evidence doesn't mean that evidence has to be 100% conclusive. Right now the evidence mostly points to a 2024 H2 launch. That's not a gurantee, but it's simply an application of the same patterns that (correctly) predicted the switch 2 wouldn't come out in 2023.
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Okay, and how does any of that disprove the evidence of T239 having been taped out?
 
Mekanos said:
What’s the latest people think they can announce it for a 2023 release?
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I feel like that ship has sailed. The rest of 2023 has a healthy number of Switch games from October through to December. I don't anticipate the Switchcessor getting released until March 2024 at the earliest.

Looking back, I should have packed it in once it was clear that the Switchcessor wasn't releasing alongside Tears of the Kingdom. I doubt we'll hear any official news of Nintendo's next console until September.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Well, I suppose I don't have evidence that chip tape outs 30+ months before release for the chip that ends up being used in the final system are unusual.

Can you provide evidence for the usual timeframe.
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By Jove the goalposts have grown legs and ran up into the stands!
 
ILikeFeet said:
I wouldn't be shocked if the wifi and Bluetooth were the same chip this time. Would make board design slightly simpler
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I hope that's not going to be the case, The Switch 2 could really use a better WiFi chip for local play this time around. Setting up a local session in Monster Hunter Rise on the Switch has never worked for me and my friends because the connection between all of our Switches is astronomically poor. We weren't even sitting more than 3 meters apart from each other in the same room and i think i never saw more than 1/3 bars filled in the icon whenever we tried playing via local WiFi. (I tested it with my V1 and V2 Switch and both were this bad) Disconnects were so frequent that we instead just connected our Switches to the router and played through WLAN. The PSP got it right nearly 2 decades ago so i really don't understand why Nintendo skimped so much on the local WiFi. This needs to do better in the successor. Local play is not dead yet.
 
Thombias said:
I hope that's not going to be the case, The Switch 2 could really use a better WiFi chip for local play this time around. Setting up a local session in Monster Hunter Rise on the Switch has never worked for me and my friends because the connection between all of our Switches is astronomically poor. We weren't even sitting more than 3 meters apart from each other in the same room and i think i never saw more than 1/3 bars filled in the icon whenever we tried playing via local WiFi. (I tested it with my V1 and V2 Switch and both were this bad) Disconnects were so frequent that we instead just connected our Switches to the router and played through WLAN. The PSP got it right nearly 2 decades ago so i really don't understand why Nintendo skimped so much on the local WiFi. This needs to do better in the successor. Local play is not dead yet.
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Being the same chip has little to do with the Switch's wifi problem. In fact, I don't know if they even are the same module in the switch
 
Jake said:
Switch Lite was revealed at Gamescom in 2019, which was in July that year and the last time Nintendo was there
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Gamescom always is at the end of August. Switch Lite was in featured in a standalone video in July. At Gamescom they had a display of the console. That you have more major reveals at Gamescom is only a recent thing and usually it is more on the european market focused. Expect more infos of Flight Simulator 2024, Cities Skylines 2 or that Tintin game instead of anything Nintendo.
 
This is important data to keep in mind regarding the discussions of Nintendo going all digital and foregoing physical carts:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/lets-not-rush-the-death-of-physical-video-games-opinion
In 2022 in Europe, GSD data showed that when it came to new Nintendo Switch games, over 80% of sales came via physical stores (this is based on third party titles, as Nintendo does not share first party digital data).
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Nintendo ecosystem is very physical heavy still, so a transition to a digital heavy ecosystem like Sony, Xbox and PC is years off for Nintendo. I'd argue Nintendo even has incentive to keep pushing physical as they can fill up the void (And thus get more shelf-space and incentives from retailers) left by Sony as MS as these two move towards a digital-only future.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Well, I suppose I don't have evidence that chip tape outs 30+ months before release for the chip that ends up being used in the final system are unusual.

Can you provide evidence for the usual timeframe.
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TX1 taped out in June-ish 2014 (and Nintendo was engaged before tape out as TX1 added a few features for Nintendo), and Switch launched in March 2017 ~33 months later.

I don’t know how long Nintendo needs post tape out to be comfortable launching new hardware or what particular hiccups may occur along the hardware critical path; but I would bet that software readiness is the largest concern.

Edit: but what really is the debate here. . . Either Nintendo has plans to launch Redacted in 2023 like the PS5 and XSX with basically zero exclusive software support, or the plan on waiting until sometime in 2024 likely to give more time for software readiness.

But, the lack of the usual evidence for 2023 (marketing, dev, or manufacturing leaks) is telling. Sadly.
 
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One thing I'm never sure on is why in 2023 a company would specifically be aiming for holidays as opposed to some other time?

If you make a good device that has high demand (and Switch 2 will unquestionably be a good device with high demand) you can be certain that you'll sell out at launch. What's the harm in having that sell out in March, April or May, letting the lack of supply fuel social media hype as people scramble to get their hands on one, and then stuffing the channels with as much product as you can in the run up for holidays as your production lines ramp up? Doing it that way didn't hurt the Switch at all.

Another way of looking at it... if you CAN launch in March (for example) - why would you choose to wait until October/November for holidays and give up 6 months of selling time? What's the explicit benefit to it that outweighs the cost of the "delay"? And yes, for this example consider that both the hardware and all planned launch software are ready.
 
YolkFolk said:
In terms of new releases, what order do you think Nintendo’s main series’ will appear on Switch 2 next gen based on current release patterns?

Obviously just guesses and just for fun!

3D Mario (day 1)
Metroid Prime 4 (cross gen)
Pokemon (could be cross gen)
Mario Kart
Animal Crossing
Smash Bros
Splatoon 4
3D Zelda
2D Mario
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Metroid Prime 4: May 2024, releases before Switch 2 or is the launch title of Switch 2
3D Super Mario: October 2024, major holiday title for Switch 2 or launch title if Switch 2 is fall 2024
Pokémon: November 2024 will have either Legends 2 or Black/White remakes.
Mario Kart: spring 2025
2D Zelda/2D Metroid: 2025 most likely
Animal Crossing: holiday 2025 or slips to early 2026
Splatoon 4: can be late 2026 or 2027
3D Zelda: 2027 is the earliest, 2028 or 2029 are likelier
2D Mario: Wonder will sell for awhile just like NSMB U did, they'll release it late in the gen again, so by 2028
Metroid Prime 5: cross gen with Switch 3 or very close to its launch(2029 is the earliest)
Super Smash Bros.: Tbh... It might not happen at all next gen, just like Mario Kart didn't happen this gen. They can do the same as MK8DX, re-package the game for Switch 2 and announce another Fighters Pass like BCP. If Smash happens, with it probably not being in development even yet... I think 2028.
 
Heron said:
One thing I'm never sure on is why in 2023 a company would specifically be aiming for holidays as opposed to some other time?

If you make a good device that has high demand (and Switch 2 will unquestionably be a good device with high demand) you can be certain that you'll sell out at launch. What's the harm in having that sell out in March, April or May, letting the lack of supply fuel social media hype as people scramble to get their hands on one, and then stuffing the channels with as much product as you can in the run up for holidays as your production lines ramp up? Doing it that way didn't hurt the Switch at all.

Another way of looking at it... if you CAN launch in March (for example) - why would you choose to wait until October/November for holidays and give up 6 months of selling time? What's the explicit benefit to it that outweighs the cost of the "delay"? And yes, for this example consider that both the hardware and all planned launch software are ready.
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There's no point to aim for anything but the holidays as consumers can more easily justify getting 2-3 launch games as well during the holidays and get the system off to a strong start.

Obviously, if you aim for the holidays, miss, and are ready to launch in March, then it's probably better to launch in March than waiting another 8 months.

One issue with the Switch 2 in particular is that... The Switch's 2023 gives no indication that the Switch 2 was intended to release in 2023 and Q1 releases are usually holiday launches that miss that window.

The 3DS was a system that aimed for holiday 2010, missed, and ended up Q1 2011 and you can kind of tell this by Nintendo's DS's holiday 2010 lineup of.... Nothing.

The Switch meanwhile has a 2D Mario game that Nintendo probably hopes will sell 20m copies launching this holiday.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Well, I suppose I don't have evidence that chip tape outs 30+ months before release for the chip that ends up being used in the final system are unusual.

Can you provide evidence for the usual timeframe.
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There isn’t a lot! Which is part of my point, we don’t actually have a lot of data here. The two hard-ish pieces of data we have are the gigaleak from Nintendo, and the PS5 leaks.

Nintendo was taking to Nvidia prior to the finalization of TX1, and planned on having the Switch out 18 months after engineering samples we're available. But that was too fast, and they slipped to 2 years.

In the case of Oberon (the PS5 chip), devkits were being shipped by August of 2019 and that would put tape out a minimum May 2019, but likely much earlier, as, again, you can't finalize a cooling design and a motherboard design until the chip design is finalized, and pushing that all out in a 3 month manufacturing window is very tight. 2 years seems about right.

With only 2 data points, I can't say if 2.5 years is unusually long, but I also can't imagine it matters that much. I can't imagine Nintendo launching their hardware 6 months early just because the chip happens to be done. And on the Nvidia side, since Orin and T239 share a team and technologies, it shouldn't be surprising to think that T239's schedule was somewhat dictated by Orin's release.

What difference would 6 months make? A new memory controller, maybe? Nintendo knows what specs it wants, Nvidia knows what technology is available, it seems reasonable to me that Nvidia tells Nintendo "hey we can do this faster and cheaper if we share resources with Orin and Ada" and Nintendo says "great, six more months with final hardware!"
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
There's no point to aim for anything but the holidays as consumers can more easily justify getting 2-3 launch games as well during the holidays and get the system off to a strong start.

Obviously, if you aim for the holidays, miss, and are ready to launch in March, then it's probably better to launch in March than waiting another 8 months.

One issue with the Switch 2 in particular is that... The Switch's 2023 gives no indication that the Switch 2 was intended to release in 2023 and Q1 releases are usually holiday launches that miss that window.

The 3DS was a system that aimed for holiday 2010, missed, and ended up Q1 2011 and you can kind of tell this by Nintendo's DS's holiday 2010 lineup of.... Nothing.

The Switch meanwhile has a 2D Mario game that Nintendo probably hopes will sell 20m copies launching this holiday.
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I'm not making any argument as to when the Switch 2 will release - I agree with you on the Switch's software lineup this year suggesting against a March release.

I'm just wondering why they'd aim for holidays in the first place. And I disagree with you on the reason - early adopters are the most likely to buy tons of software and they'll show up at any time. There are more than enough of them to carry a console for a few months.

So I don't see any kind of advantage in targeting holiday shoppers specifically there. I expect your average hardcore Nintendo fan will buy a lot more software over the first three months than a parent will buy for little Billy's christmas machine. So in fact, I think it could be better to get your early adopters / hardcore out of the way so that you both sell more software sooner and then (hopefully) have plenty of stock for the parents looking for consoles for their kids at holiday.

But the fact that most console manufacturers HAVE always aimed for the holidays suggests that you have the right of it. Although I think that back in the day you couldn't be sure of getting off to a good start / selling out, so things have changed.
 
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