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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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I would be happy with a teaser of the Redacted at the end of the direct. With a more formal presentation later this year if the Redacted is launched later this year. If not then I will jump ship to 2024 as the earliest the redacted gets launched
 
Quailman said:
I would be happy with a teaser of the Redacted at the end of the direct. With a more formal presentation later this year if the Redacted is launched later this year. If not then I will jump ship to 2024 as the earliest the redacted gets launched
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Sparks of Hope launched on October 2022. If Nintendo told Ubisoft to wait for a success, the most I think they’d delay the game would be two years, meaning Holiday 2024 would be the latest Drake would come out.
 
Hey I'm back, still team holiday 2024 and feeling pretty confident that'll ring true post direct. Excited to see what's in store!
 
Bino said:
The tweet says "40 minutes of information focused mainly on Nintendo Switch titles launching this year"
Surely there has to be other bits of information regarding something else?
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Pikmin Bloom update and Zelda Mobile game reveal, Donkey Kong movie confirmation
 
Bino said:
The tweet says "40 minutes of information focused mainly on Nintendo Switch titles launching this year"
Surely there has to be other bits of information regarding something else?
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After that Mario movie cast reveal from the September 2021 Direct, we may need to stay on our toes. It cannot be understated how much of a fucking CARPET BOMB that reveal was. No warning whatsoever and it blew up the internet. I'm still 20/80 on a succ reveal tomorrow, but that's something to keep in mind.
 
Bino said:
The tweet says "40 minutes of information focused mainly on Nintendo Switch titles launching this year"
Surely there has to be other bits of information regarding something else?
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There’s a description from somewhere saying that is focuses solely on software
 
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When Nintendo looked at sales for Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle, they wouldn't have been been all that impressed with its reception. It didnt bomb by no means, but it basically performed more in line with a Mario Sports game rather than a mainline Mario game. Selling 2.5 million since its release, and have more visibility early in the Switch's life is why Nintendo would have advised Ubisoft to hold off for new hardware to release a sequel. It would be very easy to look at "potential" for massive success thanks to a Switch userbase that has grown exponentially since Kingdom Battle released, but the library of software grew at an even greater rate. I loved Kingdom Battle but have yet to pick up Sparks of Hope. When they did away with the grid style gameplay, it made the strategy at least appear to be less cut and dry. With the grid in the original game, you knew for certain if you made a good or bad decision. Plus the graphics in the first game were simply more impressive. Yes, the scope was more limited, but that doesn't change the fact that what the player sees on TV is less visually pleasing than the original. That is not a good thing when releasing a sequel years later.

Publishers will continue the trend of selling their library of games for a long time rather than being limited to a restart every console generation. This has been a thing in the PC space on Steam for nearly two decades now, and consoles are moving in that direction. With modern hardware its easier than ever before to move their old games onto new hardware and improve things like resolution and framerate. Dont expect full on remasters, but more like playing COD Black Ops on a modern PC. You will be able to run it at a high resolution with the best PC textures they created, but dont expect any changes to the rendering pipeline. Games like Kingdom Battle and Sparks of Hope would easily squeak out hundreds of thousands of units sold on Switch Redacted.

Not really expecting new hardware to be announced tomorrow, but it would be pretty great if they did. Again, it all depends on how this hardware is positioned. If its going to seamlessly play Switch games and initially be just a new member to the Switch family, then I could see them prepping it for a late 2023 release. If tomorrows direct fills out the rest of 2023 with quality first party titles with no mention of new hardware, and Nintendo plans to market Redacted as a full on successor that makes a clean break from Switch, then 2024 is almost a certainty. At this point I am excited for the Direct regardless. I feel like Prime 4 is a lock to be shown off and maybe Prime 2&3 see shadow drops.
 
ziggyrivers said:
If Nintendo told Ubisoft to wait for that game to be released in next gen, then it means the next gen console is coming soon. No later than Holiday 2024.
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We don’t know at what point the conversation between Ubisoft and Nintendo took place. It could very well be in the planning stage of the game (i.e., 4-5 years ago). I don’t think that it is informative of the Switch 2 timing.

Concernt said:
If major partners are allowed speak so casually, I think that bodes well for the immediate future. This is the kind of language used by Xbox in 2020.
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Hard to say. Guillemot is known to be a loose cannon.

mariodk18 said:
Yeah, wait holy shit, I completely glossed over that. Ubisoft basically confirmed back compat and/or that current games will receive upgrades AND that it will be a Switch sequel. All so casually lol.
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This, I chose to believe. Being the head of Ubisoft, Guillemot should be regularly briefed by his underlings of the commercial longevity of Ubisoft titles. If he is led to think that the M+R team “will update it for the new machine”, they probably have knowledge of the backward compatibility of Switch 2.
 
Can I get some clarification on the optimist narrative? Tomorrow let's say it's mostly remasters and smaller games. They're clearly trying to coast across the finish line. July there's a hardware announcement, then it comes out in Nov or Dec. Easy.

What about if there's something bigger, like the rumored new 2D Mario? I assume the argument is "that changes nothing you pessimistic dimwitted buffoon" but my small brain can't help but feel like that makes things more complicated. A month later, there's a new hardware announcement? How does that not totally overshadow the Switch's swan song? Do they also announce the game is actually cross gen? I guess that's an easy solution. But if it is 2D Mario, that's hardly the kind of game you'd use to sell a beefy leap in performance.

Please don't jump down my throat. I'm open to 2023 which I think puts me in a pretty small minority in the first place, so not trying to sow doubt. Just looking for somewhat to lay out some narratives about how the contents of the direct could affect the probabilities of various scenarios. Or something like that.
 
Woah woah woah. This thread is moving so fast that we're already misquoting things from this morning. Let's clarify

The announcement did not say "only on software". That was the E3 Direct in 2019. Nintendo revealed the OLED a month later. They almost definitely used this language because they had shown the Lite to partners at E3 and it had started to leak.

The announcement did say "mainly on... titles launching this year." Nintendo used similar language in February 2021. That Direct announced a pair of 2022 games (Triangle Strategy and Splatoon 3), and a piece of hardware (the Skyward Sword joy-cons).

Since they use "titles" instead of "software" they could easily be referring to DLC as the exception this Direct, but I'm betting at least one thing gets a 2024 window.
 
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Dizzle said:
Please don't jump down my throat. I'm open to 2023 which I think puts me in a pretty small minority in the first place, so not trying to sow doubt. Just looking for somewhat to lay out some narratives about how the contents of the direct could affect the probabilities of various scenarios. Or something like that.
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Maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, but if you believe 2023 here in June, then you're almost automatically assuming that Nintendo would do a rapid launch and a slow transition, with a large cross-gen period. If that's the case, then I can't imagine a software release that would change your mind.

If you get a weak Direct, well, then Nintendo could be holding the big holiday title to be paired with the [redacted] announcement.

You get a strong Direct, well, those things are effectively launch titles and showing how they look even better on the next device is part of the pitch. Like how Dread was basically the OLED's show piece, but was announced a month before the OLED was.
 
Dizzle said:
Can I get some clarification on the optimist narrative? Tomorrow let's say it's mostly remasters and smaller games. They're clearly trying to coast across the finish line. July there's a hardware announcement, then it comes out in Nov or Dec. Easy.

What about if there's something bigger, like the rumored new 2D Mario? I assume the argument is "that changes nothing you pessimistic dimwitted buffoon" but my small brain can't help but feel like that makes things more complicated. A month later, there's a new hardware announcement? How does that not totally overshadow the Switch's swan song? Do they also announce the game is actually cross gen? I guess that's an easy solution. But if it is 2D Mario, that's hardly the kind of game you'd use to sell a beefy leap in performance.

Please don't jump down my throat. I'm open to 2023 which I think puts me in a pretty small minority in the first place, so not trying to sow doubt. Just looking for somewhat to lay out some narratives about how the contents of the direct could affect the probabilities of various scenarios. Or something like that.
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Nintendo frequently launches their consoles with a pair of games, one aimed at mass appeal and one aimed at showing off some aspect of the hardware. The "mass appeal" title is sometimes cross-gen or a port of an older game.
 
Discostew said:
I honestly don't see why Nintendo "needs" to hold off on releasing a finished Switch 2, assuming it is backwards compatible with Switch games. Nintendo, along with the others, are not as concerned about getting the top spot in hardware sales as gamers are. It's all about making money, and selling software is where the majority of it is. Yes, the Switch hardware continuing to sell would led to more software sold and making money, but so would a Switch 2 that is backwards-compatible with Switch games, as it caters to the same crowd while giving them even more gaming options to buy into. The SoC has been taped out for quite a while, right? In that case, whether they release the Switch 2 sooner or later won't change those specs, but the longer they wait, the "older" it will be in comparison to the release of other tech that comes around. The sooner they release it, the sooner 3rd-parties can jump on board, porting games or making exclusives, and Nintendo get royalties for each game sold from them.
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To be clear, I don’t think they are holding off. I think releasing Q1 24 was always the plan. I believe this next system is going to have the best launch software first and third party of any Nintendo system ever released. By the time holiday 24 this will be a must have system because of the software.
 
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Hermii said:
The SOC probably taped out in H1 of last year, and i absolutely agree with most of what you said. However I don't know if "old" tech necessarily matters in this context,

No matter when it releases (within reason) it will be power wise in the same spot compared to its console competition, and Nintendo doesn't market around specs. And even though it would be technically dated compared to other portable devices, nobody would notice it based on the games Those more powerful devices doesn't have games that actually push them, the way a game console does.
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I had that thought more revolved around 3rd-parties than Nintendo themselves.
 
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oldpuck said:
Maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, but if you believe 2023 here in June, then you're almost automatically assuming that Nintendo would do a rapid launch and a slow transition, with a large cross-gen period. If that's the case, then I can't imagine a software release that would change your mind.

If you get a weak Direct, well, then Nintendo could be holding the big holiday title to be paired with the [redacted] announcement.

You get a strong Direct, well, those things are effectively launch titles and showing how they look even better on the next device is part of the pitch. Like how Dread was basically the OLED's show piece, but was announced a month before the OLED was.
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Yep, this is where I am. I expect a slow, yet seamless transition, so the two systems won't get in each other's way until the right amount of games come to the successor (Pokemon, Smash, Animal Crossing, etc.) and the Switch will be slowly phased out. Basically like PS4 to PS5. I feel it's in Nintendo's best interest to use that strategy, since there may not be enough supply for Drake for a while after launch.
 
ziggyrivers said:
We could presume that the Switch timeline can be reutilized for the Switch 2, but, the Switch was released after Nintendo’s worst console. There was an appetite for something better and then the Switch turn into that one thing just everyone needs to have in their households for fun (times two).

But the successor would be entering a saturated market. Can the Switch 2 be successful just by following in the OG’s footsteps?


👀
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I believe it will have the same form factor, better launch software than the OG, and better hardware specs. I think they are going to have a very good launch year for software support.
 
Dizzle said:
Can I get some clarification on the optimist narrative? Tomorrow let's say it's mostly remasters and smaller games. They're clearly trying to coast across the finish line. July there's a hardware announcement, then it comes out in Nov or Dec. Easy.

What about if there's something bigger, like the rumored new 2D Mario? I assume the argument is "that changes nothing you pessimistic dimwitted buffoon" but my small brain can't help but feel like that makes things more complicated. A month later, there's a new hardware announcement? How does that not totally overshadow the Switch's swan song? Do they also announce the game is actually cross gen? I guess that's an easy solution. But if it is 2D Mario, that's hardly the kind of game you'd use to sell a beefy leap in performance.

Please don't jump down my throat. I'm open to 2023 which I think puts me in a pretty small minority in the first place, so not trying to sow doubt. Just looking for somewhat to lay out some narratives about how the contents of the direct could affect the probabilities of various scenarios. Or something like that.
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I get what you're saying and while 2D Mario may not be a good showpiece for Drake, it'd still sell gangbusters by virtue of being a new mainline Mario. In this scenario, we might get a companion game that would better showcase the hardware. It could be a core game like that new Monolith Soft IP or something more casual, like Nintendogs, where the dogs are more realistic looking than ever.
 
oldpuck said:
Maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, but if you believe 2023 here in June, then you're almost automatically assuming that Nintendo would do a rapid launch and a slow transition, with a large cross-gen period. If that's the case, then I can't imagine a software release that would change your mind.

If you get a weak Direct, well, then Nintendo could be holding the big holiday title to be paired with the [redacted] announcement.

You get a strong Direct, well, those things are effectively launch titles and showing how they look even better on the next device is part of the pitch. Like how Dread was basically the OLED's show piece, but was announced a month before the OLED was.
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I guess my point was that the rumors swirling about a 2D Mario game are a challenge to remaining hope for 2023, because that's not a show piece for a new console no matter how pretty it is, given folk's feelings about 2D vs 3D games. @Pokemaniac made the point that it could be one of two big cross gen games alongside a showpiece, but I don't know. It still feels like a very odd choice.

Of course, this relies on the rumors of a 2D Mario being credible, and the jury is out on that one (I have personally yet to see anything convincing).

And of course of course this is all astrology, but that's implicit. Saturn in retrograde, etc.
 
If the PS4 > PS5 transition proved anything, is that crossgen can go for two years. Maybe three.

Tron1 said:
I believe it will have the same form factor, better launch software than the OG, and better hardware specs. I think they are going to have a very good launch year for software support.
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Better launch software can be debatable. Switch had Zelda, Mario and Xeno. Switch 2 would only have Mario and Pokemon DLC
 
Dizzle said:
I guess my point was that the rumors swirling about a 2D Mario game are a challenge to remaining hope for 2023, because that's not a show piece for a new console no matter how pretty it is, given folk's feelings about 2D vs 3D games. @Pokemaniac made the point that it could be one of two big cross gen games alongside a showpiece, but I don't know. It still feels like a very odd choice.
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So your worry is that it's too big to indicate Nintendo is holding onto titles, but not big enough to be a showpiece?

Not a criticism, just curious what you mean.
 
oldpuck said:
So your worry is that it's too big to indicate Nintendo is holding onto titles, but not big enough to be a showpiece?

Not a criticism, just curious what you mean.
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Yeah basically. Like that specific rumored game seems to thread the needle.
 
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Bino said:
The tweet says "40 minutes of information focused mainly on Nintendo Switch titles launching this year"
Surely there has to be other bits of information regarding something else?
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The "mainly" is Switch titles releasing 2023. That leaves room for the something else to be, e.g., one Switch title releasing in 2024.

Or it could be a mobile title. Or it could be a movie/multimedia announcement. Or it could be a theme park update.

Or it could be an announcement of a future hardware announcement - but I wouldn't jump to that as the most likely option.

Dizzle said:
Can I get some clarification on the optimist narrative? Tomorrow let's say it's mostly remasters and smaller games. They're clearly trying to coast across the finish line. July there's a hardware announcement, then it comes out in Nov or Dec. Easy.

What about if there's something bigger, like the rumored new 2D Mario? I assume the argument is "that changes nothing you pessimistic dimwitted buffoon" but my small brain can't help but feel like that makes things more complicated. A month later, there's a new hardware announcement? How does that not totally overshadow the Switch's swan song? Do they also announce the game is actually cross gen? I guess that's an easy solution. But if it is 2D Mario, that's hardly the kind of game you'd use to sell a beefy leap in performance.

Please don't jump down my throat. I'm open to 2023 which I think puts me in a pretty small minority in the first place, so not trying to sow doubt. Just looking for somewhat to lay out some narratives about how the contents of the direct could affect the probabilities of various scenarios. Or something like that.
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I agree with you, and I've been on team 2023.

If all they show is a roadmap of games through the next few months - e.g. first party titles through to about October-ish, with a little more flexibility for third party stuff - then maybe there's still room for a July announcement. It's reasonable to fill out the Switch calendar while it still has everyone's full attention, before announcing the next big thing.

If they announce their big holiday game - and 2D Mario is currently looking to be that game - then I think that's it, at least for me. Ditto if they start announcing 2024 games. I'd expect any Switch 2 release window titles (including cross-gen titles) to be shown in the best possible light, which means announcing them with/after the new hardware.
 
So, I looked into it, and there appear to be only one reasonable source for the 2D Mario Game, Pyoro_ND. They seem to have some connection and are leaning into it hard with a lot of details - and they've slammed some of the usual clout chasers (marko maro) in the process, so it seems like it's got decent odds. I've been expecting 2D Mario as the 2023 Mario game for some time, so that tracks.

But I would warn folks against calling that a large number of swirling rumors. It's just one person.
 
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ikaben said:
Why do some people expect a HW announcement?
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Less expecting and more humoring it, it's more likely to be revealed next month. The past two hardware revisions were revealed in July and Jeff Grubb has heard rumblings of something happened by Nintendo in July.
 
robertman2 said:
Pyoro feels like a bullshitter. Like they're running off of educated guesses
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I very much agree with that. The only reason some people seem to trust them is a Pokemon leak they managed a couple years ago. And even if they had legit info there Pokemon leaks like crazy so I would not expect just anyone who had Pokemon info to also have other info.

EDIT: Just as I post this someone discovered that their twitter handle used to be "Pyorohunter2"... which sounds familiar to me... hmmmmmmmmmmmm!
 
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Skittzo said:
I very much agree with that. The only reason some people seem to trust them is a Pokemon leak they managed a couple years ago. And even if they had legit info there Pokemon leaks like crazy so I would not expect just anyone who had Pokemon info to also have other info.

EDIT: Just as I post this someone discovered that their twitter handle used to be "Pyorohunter2"... which sounds familiar to me... hmmmmmmmmmmmm!
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lol

next time direct speculation comes around it's my turn to fuck with people
 
Concernt said:
If major partners are allowed speak so casually, I think that bodes well for the immediate future. This is the kind of language used by Xbox in 2020.
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Mario+Rabbids Sparks of Hope was suposed to be a Switch sucessor game, but Ubisoft got trigger happy and released the game early as intended, it seen Nintendo wanted the Mario+Rabbids been like the 3D Mario/Mario Kart, that is release ounce per console generation of them.
 
Bino said:
The tweet says "40 minutes of information focused mainly on Nintendo Switch titles launching this year"
Surely there has to be other bits of information regarding something else?
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Nintendo always use this kinda of words when they anounce they general Nintendo Direct
 
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Skittzo said:
I very much agree with that. The only reason some people seem to trust them is a Pokemon leak they managed a couple years ago. And even if they had legit info there Pokemon leaks like crazy so I would not expect just anyone who had Pokemon info to also have other info.

EDIT: Just as I post this someone discovered that their twitter handle used to be "Pyorohunter2"... which sounds familiar to me... hmmmmmmmmmmmm!
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Samushunter? i should have know this leaker seemed fishy
 
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Giancarlo said:
Mario+Rabbids Sparks of Hope was suposed to be a Switch sucessor game, but Ubisoft got trigger happy and released the game early as intended, it seen Nintendo wanted the Mario+Rabbids been like the 3D Mario/Mario Kart, that is release ounce per console generation of them.
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Trust me, this game was never intended to be on the succ. It was never developed on anything other than the Switch SDK.
 
There are three sources with a track record hinting at a 2D Mario: Pyoro, The Snitch, and NS News Subo. It seems a good bet. (Or some of them are piggybacking.)

Personally I’m not too concerned about what titles would be the “swan songs” of Switch 1 or what would be the launch games of Switch 2. It seems to me that Nintendo’s business emphasis on evergreen titles (what Guillemot disclosed to GamesIndustry.biz further demonstrates their thinking) may lead to a persistent Switch eShop, not unlike Valve’s Steam or Apple’s App Store. Looking at today’s top 14 games on both storefronts, there are many old a$$ games still topping the charts:

qbfI1W6.jpg

bTZibQv.jpg
z1mSUlz.jpg


Granted Switch isn’t a PC or smartphone, but Nintendo is in a good position to pursue this strategy technically (a walled garden), positionally (1st party dominated marketplace), and philosophically (enduring value of IP).
 
D36 said:
Not saying you're wrong, but you might not have read this, as that's where this conversation started.
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Yup, saw this but I still stand my ground on this. It was never envisioned as a succ game, it was never supposed to be left sitting finished for years, hell it wasn’t even developed on supposed Pro hardware.

All Yves is saying is Nintendo advised they should wait for the succ to release as per the Mario Kart tradition for new iterations, and now they regret not following that but will support the game through updates on the new console.


So yes, it may be getting a succ update, but as Yves stated himself they didn’t follow their advice and went straight into the sequel on Switch.
 
lattjeful said:
While we're on the topic of sales, how much of the Switch's success can be attributed to COVID and Animal Crossing? While I think the successor will do well - even with a bad launch - some part of me wonders if the current Switch's numbers are attainable.
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Even cutting things off at March 31, 2020, Switch was right in the middle of the pack of history's fastest selling consoles. Cutting out April 2020-March 2021 altogether it would still be about ready to pass 100 million hardware. HUMONGO numbers are never guaranteed, but Switch has a lot more going for it than being a popular 2020 pick.
 
Looks like 1-2 switch's "phone controller" implementation is Jackbox style as I suspected. So not the idea I was thinking of for Switch 2 implementation.
Screenshot_2023-06-20_at_6.01.18_PM.png
 
Skittzo said:
I very much agree with that. The only reason some people seem to trust them is a Pokemon leak they managed a couple years ago. And even if they had legit info there Pokemon leaks like crazy so I would not expect just anyone who had Pokemon info to also have other info.

EDIT: Just as I post this someone discovered that their twitter handle used to be "Pyorohunter2"... which sounds familiar to me... hmmmmmmmmmmmm!
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I have no skin in the game, but the person digging through Pyoro’s Twitter history discovered a deleted tweet that seems to strengthen Pyoro’s insider status:



Synduality was revealed in September, but the tweet was created in August. They probably deleted it for being too risky.

Edit: @Skittzo made a good point down the thread.
 
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DariliumA said:
Yup, saw this but I still stand my ground on this. It was never envisioned as a succ game, it was never supposed to be left sitting finished for years, hell it wasn’t even developed on supposed Pro hardware.

All Yves is saying is Nintendo advised they should wait for the succ to release as per the Mario Kart tradition for new iterations, and now they regret not following that but will support the game through updates on the new console.


So yes, it may be getting a succ update, but as Yves stated himself they didn’t follow their advice and went straight into the sequel on Switch.
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He explicitly said they plan on updating the game for the successor
 
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