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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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My guess at this point is that Nintendo is waiting to see how the Mario movie does because the more they can rely on non-video-game revenue (movies, tv shows, super nintendo world, etc) the more freedom they will have to do things like sell their hardware at less of a profit or even an outright loss at launch.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Just to clarify, if the Switch 2 is releasing November 2023, I expect something like

Announcement mid April. Just a very brief tweet or press release that says "Nintendo will be releasing the Nintendo Switch 2 this holiday season! It will be backwards compatible with almost all Switch games, including TotK and Pikmin 4. Tune in this summer for more detailed information!"

This allows people to know a Switch 2 is coming soon, but is so low key that it doesn't distract away at all from TotK.

Then Nintendo can do their full blowout in mid June (July is a little too close to Pikmin 4 I think).

So when I say "the Switch 2 will be announced in the next six weeks if it's coming this fiscal year," I mean a very low key announcement, with details other than BC not shared until later.

I would be very confused if Nintendo was releasing the Switch 2 Q4 2023 and did not follow this approach and instead didn't do the official announcement until like June or something.
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Expect the latter.
 
TomNookYankees said:
My guess at this point is that Nintendo is waiting to see how the Mario movie does because the more they can rely on non-video-game revenue (movies, tv shows, super nintendo world, etc) the more freedom they will have to do things like sell their hardware at less of a profit or even an outright loss at launch.
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I don't think Nintendo has lost money on hardware at launch since GameCube
 
Kazuyamishima said:
I don't think Nintendo has lost money on hardware at launch since GameCube
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CeK2lmhW0AE6LXh.jpg:large
 
That's my point though. After what happened with the WiiU and Gamecube they are obviously nervous about selling hardware at a loss because they haven't had any significant and reliable revenue outside of video games and them investing in stuff like Super Nintendo World and the Mario movie is part of what they have been saying in recent investor meetings about trying to branch out to other forms of media for revenue sources.

It's also big part of why Sony and Microsoft are able to sell their hardware at a loss at launch, they have other industries they can lean into to soften the initial risk/loss.
 
iness2 said:
Could it be that the next chip has Armv9 architecture, or they have something with greater security...

TotK would arrive with small graphic errors (I hope a patch will stabilize it), because although the Zelda team has done an outstanding job, the system would reach the came up with this ambitious concept of the game.

Let's not forget that the TotK game underwent an age review in Korea in mid-November 2022, therefore, estimating 60 days to locate and polish it, it may have been finished by the end of August 2022, thus I do not lose hope of a new system, this is due to From the words of Eiji A. producer of Zelda, who says that the development phase is now over at the end of March 2023, is he talking about another version with an additional 7 months of work?

Finally the concept of conflation applied to TotK I like it, I feel that they are moving away from Hiyao Miyazaki and they will break schemes in the Osamu Tezuka style.
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why are you posting on an alt
 
I still think they may release it late 2025 and the only ones that'd make a ruckus out of it is gaming enthusiasts that believe it's too late to launch a chip like Drake that late, when even Lovelace is about to get succeded (so it'd soon be to arch gens behind, it may not be as powerful as a more recent SoC could be and most likely it'll lack the FG ability of DLSS 3).
 
TomNookYankees said:
That's my point though. After what happened with the WiiU and Gamecube they are obviously nervous about selling hardware at a loss because they haven't had any significant and reliable revenue outside of video games and them investing in stuff like Super Nintendo World and the Mario movie is part of what they have been saying in recent investor meetings about trying to branch out to other forms of media for revenue sources.

It's also big part of why Sony and Microsoft are able to sell their hardware at a loss at launch, they have other industries they can lean into to soften the initial risk/loss.
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I’d argue even with extra revenue sources Nintendo probably won’t sell at a loss. Too much money being lost when you can cut it close & still make bank.

And, while they say it is for an extra revenue source the bigger reason is major expansion of the brand. To have it truly become a household name like Pokémon is.
 
0
Look over there said:
The Gigaleak is why we know that Nintendo's original plan for the Switch was to launch in time for 2016's holiday season, but software delays pushed things to early 2017, right? Can we deduce a window for when plans changed?
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Look over there said:
For Switch
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Best we can say is some time between June 2015 (the date of some gigaleak info) and March 2016 (when the March 2017 release date was announced).
 
Hush said:
There are a lot of non-Zelda fans who are going to buy it because of the hype as well as fans who aren´t crazy about BotW and still on the fence. When a game launches its always more about the new customers rather than the guaranteed buyers, and social media engagement is a driver for continued sales.

The Switch 2 announcement or just confirmation at that specific point would be the talking point leading to TotK´s launch and inevitably get in the way. Its not about it ¨being fine¨ as it about getting the biggest launch possible for Nintendo.
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I simply think you underestimate people's ability to care about multiple things from the same company, that aren't releasing at the same time. I think that BoTW's consistent selling is proof enough that there's are plenty of Zelda fans and again, i don't understand why majority of the fans/buyers would just wait for no real reason.
Fans and consumers are able to pay attention to multiple things, not just "Zelda or new console."

I believe you also misunderstand it being "fine". It being fine means that it's going to sell amazingly due to being the hyped as hell sequel to the best selling Zelda. Nintendo would have to completely kill all interest in this game for it not to sell and I don't believe a new console that will 1. Release months after it and 2. Have ToTK playable on it day 1, is going to hamper that interest ala TLOU(I don't believe it being it a new ip or pandemic means the situation's completely different).
 
TonyBaduy said:
I still think they may release it late 2025
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If that is the case, the switch Drake was indeed cancelled within the last ~6 months, for reasons which are hard to explain.
At this point, I don't believe it.

If we reach September/October 2023 without anything substantial, I will be totally open to the idea of a cancellation and thus, to the idea of a 2025 release date of the successor.
 
Bosintang said:
If that is the case, the switch Drake was indeed cancelled within the last ~6 months, for reasons which are hard to explain.
At this point, I don't believe it.

If we reach September/October 2023 without anything substantial, I will be totally open to the idea of a cancellation and thus, to the idea of a 2025 release date of the successor.
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No, that's most likely impossible, there wasn't any new SoC being made for Nintendo in the leak last year, and it takes more than 2 years to make a new SoC, thus if Drake was scapped in the last 6 months, the successor would come out in 2026 at best and 2028 at worst I believe.
 
If Drake were to be cancelled, it would certainly be condemned by second party and indie developers such as Monolith, Retro, GF, etc., not to mention third parties.
Fortnite, Minecraft, etc. will end support for the Switch without waiting for a successor.
All this should be avoided.
 
Thraktor said:
I certainly don't expect all Switch buyers to wait, but some of them would. The OLED model, in particular, seems to be frequently bought as an upgrade for existing Switch owners, and accounts for just over 50% of Switch sales. I could see a sizeable number of potential OLED model buyers waiting, which would have a significant effect on sales overall. The Switch is also in the unusual position where it hasn't seen a single price drop over 6+ years, and it's plausible that it won't get one until the successor releases (if at all). This means the gap between the price of a Switch and a [redacted] is likely to be a lot lower than typical for new generation hardware, making it more appealing to wait (although I don't expect them to announce the price until a month or two before).
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Alright, these are fair points. I personally fail to see why one would upgrade from the OG Switch for an OLED model considering the amount of extra money you have to pay (even after accounting for selling your current Switch), but I can simultaneously recognise that there could very well be a sizable group of people who do consider it worth the repurchase.

However, in terms of lost sales, I wonder if people who got 'duped' (note the scare quotes) into buying an OLED months before the Switch 2 release would actually be ailling to go and purchase the Switch 2 in a timely fashion, especially when games are cross-gen for a little while. They will probably jump on board later in its life cycle anyway, but you may have lost some early adopters potentially, which might not be something you want to risk with the launch of a new generation device, either.
Thraktor said:
While they haven't historically released a console without announcing it prior to the start of the fiscal year, I don't think there's anything special about the fiscal year in this, it's just that they've always announced new consoles at least a year in advance, which automatically means it has been announced prior to the start of the fiscal year. I could equivalently state that Nintendo has never released a console without announcing it before the preceding Valentine's Day, which is technically true, but there's no reason to believe Nintendo care about Valentine's Day particularly.
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I don't quite agree with the analogy: the Fiscal year meeting in May is the moment where they have to explain their financials to investors, so it holds more weight than, let's say, Valentine's Day. Of course, your point is that the pattern is that Nintendo always announced their hardware more than a year in advance, not that they timed it to please investors. That doesn't mean the investor meeting is not an important point ahead of which they would want to have announced their system, of course, just that there is no specific indication of that.
Thraktor said:
Regarding forecasts, Nintendo can simply not include the new hardware in their forecasts. I don't believe they're under any obligation to (and I don't think they have typically done so in the past).
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Well, sure, but then you move from the problem of being unable to explain your high hardware forecast to presenting an unnecessarily low forecast. Neither method seems like an approach that you would want to take very readily.
 
So you folks had fun over the night, it seems.

Raccoon said:
trust me, you'll know when there's news, even if it's weak or questionable. it'll probably get its own thread
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You will notice if there's news because Fami will become slo...

chocolate_supra said:
They'll know when there's real news because Fami servers will be chugging like a v1 Switch playing Age of Calamity
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... Choc took my job!
 
To be honest, I wasn't expecting anything from Nintendo's fiscal year report today, for the Japanese version Q&A session only, it's full of Eastern/Japanese clichés, just repeating to you politely that we are working hard, and it is not convenient to disclose anything else.
 
Concernt said:
Explain?
Click to expand...
I know his source for this tweet, basically the source gave him fake info about devkits just now going out, ("final" hardware devkits have been going out for months, and been able to be built since August/September last year). Hours after this source shared the information with the "leaker" he tweeted that... He isn't validating his sources at all. We only should trust 1 source for all our hard facts, and that of course... is @10k

Anyways, yeah that tweet is fake info, sorry I didn't see this, was actually told by the source mentioned above, that reddd mentioned me in a post. Right now information is going to be slow, production should be starting very soon if it does come out this year, but it should be this FY (ending exactly a year from now) however, I do think the end of this calendar year makes the most sense. People attribute Nintendo Switch's success as releasing in March instead of the holidays, which just is a hindsight problem, Switch could have easily sold 5 Million more units by the end of March 31st 2018 had they of released Holiday 2016, The reality is that holidays just have more space on retail floors because of holidays using endcaps, putting pallets on the floors and just filling up inventory in general, it literally is the difference between ~3 and ~5 million sales in a launch month.

Why I am so confident here, is that there is no known games after Pikmin 4, except MP4 which we have yet to see... The next direct will be brand new announcements and never seen before games, more over, Nintendo has a solid holiday, or they wouldn't have dropped MP1 in February for $39.99, the anniversary month which Nintendo has celebrated in the past is August, and if they had announced MP1 for August 2023 at $49.99, it would make a lot more sense than shadow dropping it at the end of a direct, digital only, for $39.99...

They also wanted the release to be positively received, and as a remaster/remake, they wanted it to look great, but if Drake were to be announced before it's release, people would have had too high of expectations for it, because MP1 was clearly done a long time ago, it was never meant for Drake, so at best, it would get a patch to run 4K, but assets and graphics were designed around Switch limitations, thus it wouldn't satisfy if Drake was on the market already, without going back and reworking it.

Drake is happening shortly, my GUESS is that we will see it in late June, during a digital event where they show off a bunch of games, and a launch this October or November, likely with 3D Mario, Zelda DLC, MK8D patch (among other evergreens), and Call of Duty, which I suspect Microsoft has asked Activision to port to the new hardware since they received final devkits. The current Switch will likely get a cloud version, as the Switch cloud company has a contract with Microsoft for Call of Duty over the next 10 years as well, in fact, in a weird way, the current Switch could see cloud versions of Call of Duty for the next 10 years... I think CoD Mobile and Warzone will also come to Switch as local versions of the franchise. Again, this is all just speculation, but yes "Switch 2" is probably being revealed this Summer, for this Holiday, and people who think it will come in Spring have to really ask themselves why Nintendo has nothing announced/dated after July, except for Metroid Prime 4, which is almost certainly not coming this year.
 
Wilmore said:
I still don't understand Nintendo's strategy. If the new console is pretty much ready, why not launch it with Zelda? There is some element that escapes us and that we will know a posteriori.
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Because Zelda will look like a Switch game in 4K on Drake. It's best to launch this next console showing off it's power, and patching Zelda in with DLC this holiday. I did think that in the past, but yes, someone pointed out how similar Zelda will look with this art style, and I agree, they will need to upgrade the engine next time to use Ray Tracing and other graphical features Drake has, just don't expect it for 5 years.
 
Z0m3le said:
Because Zelda will look like a Switch game in 4K on Drake. It's best to launch this next console showing off it's power, and patching Zelda in with DLC this holiday. I did think that in the past, but yes, someone pointed out how similar Zelda will look with this art style, and I agree, they will need to upgrade the engine next time to use Ray Tracing and other graphical features Drake has, just don't expect it for 5 years.
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Zelda looking like a switch game in 1080 60fps would be enough for me to jump the train. At the moment looking at the trailer we’ve got I’m not even sure I want to buy it on release
 
Wilmore said:
I still don't understand Nintendo's strategy. If the new console is pretty much ready, why not launch it with Zelda? There is some element that escapes us and that we will know a posteriori.
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Because new console is going to launch in Spring 2024. There was no need to further delay Zelda even if new console was launching late 2023. TotK launch was never tied to new hardware, especially since the game was gonna launch in late 2022 (oficially) and even before that before pandemic happened.
 
Bnois said:
Zelda looking like a switch game in 1080 60fps would be enough for me to jump the train. At the moment looking at the trailer we’ve got I’m not even sure I want to buy it on release
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You'll get 4K/60 from Drake with a patch likely on launch of the hardware, so not an issue there.
 
Z0m3le said:
I know his source for this tweet, basically the source gave him fake info about devkits just now going out, ("final" hardware devkits have been going out for months, and been able to be built since August/September last year). Hours after this source shared the information with the "leaker" he tweeted that... He isn't validating his sources at all. We only should trust 1 source for all our hard facts, and that of course... is @10k

Anyways, yeah that tweet is fake info, sorry I didn't see this, was actually told by the source mentioned above, that reddd mentioned me in a post. Right now information is going to be slow, production should be starting very soon if it does come out this year, but it should be this FY (ending exactly a year from now) however, I do think the end of this calendar year makes the most sense. People attribute Nintendo Switch's success as releasing in March instead of the holidays, which just is a hindsight problem, Switch could have easily sold 5 Million more units by the end of March 31st 2018 had they of released Holiday 2016, The reality is that holidays just have more space on retail floors because of holidays using endcaps, putting pallets on the floors and just filling up inventory in general, it literally is the difference between ~3 and ~5 million sales in a launch month.

Why I am so confident here, is that there is no known games after Pikmin 4, except MP4 which we have yet to see... The next direct will be brand new announcements and never seen before games, more over, Nintendo has a solid holiday, or they wouldn't have dropped MP1 in February for $39.99, the anniversary month which Nintendo has celebrated in the past is August, and if they had announced MP1 for August 2023 at $49.99, it would make a lot more sense than shadow dropping it at the end of a direct, digital only, for $39.99...

They also wanted the release to be positively received, and as a remaster/remake, they wanted it to look great, but if Drake were to be announced before it's release, people would have had too high of expectations for it, because MP1 was clearly done a long time ago, it was never meant for Drake, so at best, it would get a patch to run 4K, but assets and graphics were designed around Switch limitations, thus it wouldn't satisfy if Drake was on the market already, without going back and reworking it.

Drake is happening shortly, my GUESS is that we will see it in late June, during a digital event where they show off a bunch of games, and a launch this October or November, likely with 3D Mario, Zelda DLC, MK8D patch (among other evergreens), and Call of Duty, which I suspect Microsoft has asked Activision to port to the new hardware since they received final devkits. The current Switch will likely get a cloud version, as the Switch cloud company has a contract with Microsoft for Call of Duty over the next 10 years as well, in fact, in a weird way, the current Switch could see cloud versions of Call of Duty for the next 10 years... I think CoD Mobile and Warzone will also come to Switch as local versions of the franchise. Again, this is all just speculation, but yes "Switch 2" is probably being revealed this Summer, for this Holiday, and people who think it will come in Spring have to really ask themselves why Nintendo has nothing announced/dated after July, except for Metroid Prime 4, which is almost certainly not coming this year.
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The trap worked wonderfully 😉
 
Z0m3le said:
MK8D patch (among other evergreens)
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Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.

EDIT2: I stand corrected. I didn't know there were already mobile devices much less power hungry than the Ayaneo 2 doing RT nor did i realize that the NVN2 stuff about ray tracing was due to the chipset having dedicated hardware for RT.
 
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So devkits are out there then? I’m guessing the bigger companies have them (EA, Acti, Capcom etc..) so I hope this means a solid launch period.
 
From a game release perspective, Splatoon's DLC2 is also very interesting.
It will be released in 2024, and from the preview, it feels like "What will Splatoon 3 look like if the Order wins in Splatoon2's final splatfest", so I think DLC2 will be even bigger than Octo Expansion, and they will combine the DLC2 with the new model to promote it, this will allow new models to take advantage of Splatoon's popularity without releasing Splatoon 4.
 
ITSMILNER said:
So devkits are out there then? I’m guessing the bigger companies have them (EA, Acti, Capcom etc..) so I hope this means a solid launch period.
Click to expand...

Even if we would be talking about end of 2024 (calendar year) as the launch timeframe, devkits (in some form) are absolutely in (at least chosen) dev hands by now.
 
Z0m3le said:
I know his source for this tweet, basically the source gave him fake info about devkits just now going out, ("final" hardware devkits have been going out for months, and been able to be built since August/September last year). Hours after this source shared the information with the "leaker" he tweeted that... He isn't validating his sources at all. We only should trust 1 source for all our hard facts, and that of course... is @10k

Anyways, yeah that tweet is fake info, sorry I didn't see this, was actually told by the source mentioned above, that reddd mentioned me in a post. Right now information is going to be slow, production should be starting very soon if it does come out this year, but it should be this FY (ending exactly a year from now) however, I do think the end of this calendar year makes the most sense. People attribute Nintendo Switch's success as releasing in March instead of the holidays, which just is a hindsight problem, Switch could have easily sold 5 Million more units by the end of March 31st 2018 had they of released Holiday 2016, The reality is that holidays just have more space on retail floors because of holidays using endcaps, putting pallets on the floors and just filling up inventory in general, it literally is the difference between ~3 and ~5 million sales in a launch month.

Why I am so confident here, is that there is no known games after Pikmin 4, except MP4 which we have yet to see... The next direct will be brand new announcements and never seen before games, more over, Nintendo has a solid holiday, or they wouldn't have dropped MP1 in February for $39.99, the anniversary month which Nintendo has celebrated in the past is August, and if they had announced MP1 for August 2023 at $49.99, it would make a lot more sense than shadow dropping it at the end of a direct, digital only, for $39.99...

They also wanted the release to be positively received, and as a remaster/remake, they wanted it to look great, but if Drake were to be announced before it's release, people would have had too high of expectations for it, because MP1 was clearly done a long time ago, it was never meant for Drake, so at best, it would get a patch to run 4K, but assets and graphics were designed around Switch limitations, thus it wouldn't satisfy if Drake was on the market already, without going back and reworking it.

Drake is happening shortly, my GUESS is that we will see it in late June, during a digital event where they show off a bunch of games, and a launch this October or November, likely with 3D Mario, Zelda DLC, MK8D patch (among other evergreens), and Call of Duty, which I suspect Microsoft has asked Activision to port to the new hardware since they received final devkits. The current Switch will likely get a cloud version, as the Switch cloud company has a contract with Microsoft for Call of Duty over the next 10 years as well, in fact, in a weird way, the current Switch could see cloud versions of Call of Duty for the next 10 years... I think CoD Mobile and Warzone will also come to Switch as local versions of the franchise. Again, this is all just speculation, but yes "Switch 2" is probably being revealed this Summer, for this Holiday, and people who think it will come in Spring have to really ask themselves why Nintendo has nothing announced/dated after July, except for Metroid Prime 4, which is almost certainly not coming this year.
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So. This is news. And you're trustworthy, as far as I'm concerned, so. Wow.

Final hardware for 6+ months. Wow. Yeah, late 2023 seems a sure shot.
 
lieeiusex said:
From a game release perspective, Splatoon's DLC2 is also very interesting.
It will be released in 2024, and from the preview, it feels like "What will Splatoon 3 look like if the Order wins in Splatoon2's final splatfest", so I think DLC2 will be even bigger than Octo Expansion, and they will combine the DLC2 with the new model to promote it, this will allow new models to take advantage of Splatoon's popularity without releasing Splatoon 4.
Click to expand...
It doesn't have an official release date, not 2024, not 2023, nothing. It just had a placeholder date.
 
lieeiusex said:
From a game release perspective, Splatoon's DLC2 is also very interesting.
It will be released in 2024, and from the preview, it feels like "What will Splatoon 3 look like if the Order wins in Splatoon2's final splatfest", so I think DLC2 will be even bigger than Octo Expansion, and they will combine the DLC2 with the new model to promote it, this will allow new models to take advantage of Splatoon's popularity without releasing Splatoon 4.
Click to expand...
There is no evidence that Side Order is launching in 2024, the eShop listing and the Spain ad which operates based on that eShop listing isn't enough. These placeholder listings actually mean nothing. Wave 1 was listed to be released in "Spring 2023" and it was listed to be out by May 31st 2023 on the eShop and 2 weeks after the Direct it was released on February 28th, even contradiction to "Spring 2023" given by Nintendo. Nintendo only said "Side Order will launch in the future" that's why there is that 12.31.24 listing on the eShop. I assume Side Order will launch this Summer/late Summer like Splatoon 3 released. It would make no sense to launch Wave 1 in February and then sometime in Spring 2024 or later "hey, the DLC you bought more than year ago, we are releasing Wave 2! You probably forgot that you bought it already." If Side Order would be releasing in 2024 they would make it separate deal aside from Wave 1.
 
Concernt said:
It doesn't have an official release date, not 2024, not 2023, nothing. It just had a placeholder date.
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Of course, that's just a placeholder date, more strictly speaking, with this placeholder date, I think it's more like will be released in 2024 as opposed to 2023
 
0
TomNookYankees said:
Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.
Click to expand...
*no other handheld has dedicated RT cores
 
LukasManak22 said:
There is no evidence that Side Order is launching in 2024, the eShop listing and the Spain ad which operates based on that eShop listing isn't enough. These placeholder listings actually mean nothing. Wave 1 was listed to be released in "Spring 2023" and it was listed to be out by May 31st 2023 on the eShop and 2 weeks after the Direct it was released on February 28th, even contradiction to "Spring 2023" given by Nintendo. Nintendo only said "Side Order will launch in the future" that's why there is that 12.31.24 listing on the eShop. I assume Side Order will launch this Summer/late Summer like Splatoon 3 released. It would make no sense to launch Wave 1 in February and then sometime in Spring 2024 or later "hey, the DLC you bought more than year ago, we are releasing Wave 2! You probably forgot that you bought it already." If Side Order would be releasing in 2024 they would make it separate deal aside from Wave 1.
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You make a good point. Perhaps DLC1 has given me some misconceptions, DLC1 doesn't add much, so I was under the impression that DLC1 was a pre-order bonus for the real DLC (DLC2), to reassure everyone to wait patiently, and recently Nintendo's large DLC always takes a long time, so I always think it will be announced much later.
But I really think the new model needs some support from Splatoon if its release in 2023/early 2024 , something stronger than BC. Splatoon in Japan is too strong, enough to help them hold their ground in Nintendo's hometown.
 
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