StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Z0m3le]

Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.

Drake will out perform Ayeneo 2's GPU (680M) in Ray Tracing easily, it can also target lower resolutions and use DLSS and hide the results behind a 7inch screen, and when docked it will be the same. RT performance will be around current gen consoles on Drake thanks to Ampere being vastly superior to RDNA in RT.

So. This is news. And you're trustworthy, as far as I'm concerned, so. Wow.

Final hardware for 6+ months. Wow. Yeah, late 2023 seems a sure shot.

Why final hardware is in quotes, is important to note. It's not that the design is perfected, but that the chip is done and has been put into devkits. We don't know exactly when this happened, and Nintendo gets devkits first, 3rd parties probably started getting them at the beginning of the year. The only thing I know for certain is that physical devkits have existed for over a year, seemingly using Orin at one point, and now use Drake, which has only been possible since last fall. We know mass production didn't start last year, but could be starting right around now. SDK (software development kits) were in peoples hands in 2021, some internal testing likely existed even in 2020.

I hate you guys. Stop giving me hope its happening this calendar year (z0m3le post more...)

I mostly am looking at the software release schedule to determine that it will be this calendar year, but it could be within 12 months. Nintendo has always targeted holidays for their releases, and only released in Spring via delays, I do not believe they suddenly changed their minds and decided spring makes more sense, which is another reason this holiday makes sense.

The Pokemon leaker did say that their patch would be out early next year, in winter. That is Jan/Feb... Maybe March, the patch has to come out at or after the launch of Drake, but Drake could come out months before it, and it will certainly launch with software, if Switch has a strong enough 2nd half in software, why do we not have any known titles for the last 5 months of this calendar year? We don't even know of any titles that could exist, unless people think they will drop prime 4 this holiday on Switch as a holiday game, then release "Switch 2" just a few months later.

Since you want more, it's unlikely that Zelda doesn't get patched, that MK8D doesn't get patched, DLC for those games are almost certainly this calendar year, releasing a patch just for Drake after that, doesn't make as much sense as releasing those patches inside existing DLC for those games that they have scheduled already.

 

[LinkURL]

Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.

Yes, they will spend silicon for nothing putting RT cores that will not be used for anything.

 

[Erathix]

I hate you guys. Stop giving me hope its happening this calendar year (z0m3le post more...)

Never lose hope at all, it is definitely coming this calender year. Anyone saying otherwise is simply being pessimistic so they don't feel let down in the event that it hypothetically doesn't. They are preparing for the worst, I see some here even preparing for the worst to the point of drastically downplaying the power of Drake so they don't feel shocked or surprised if it doesn't meet all their expectations despite us having a pretty good idea currently about its capabilities.

Hold onto hope and never let it go, I will literally be forced to go to Japan and stand in Super Nintendo World all day holding a sign stating "I was wrong about Switch 2" if it doesn't happen.

...So it will happen.

 

[LuckyLuke]

Do you think there will also be a patch for Breath of the Wild?

 

[PedroNavajas]

Because Zelda will look like a Switch game in 4K on Drake. It's best to launch this next console showing off it's power, and patching Zelda in with DLC this holiday. I did think that in the past, but yes, someone pointed out how similar Zelda will look with this art style, and I agree, they will need to upgrade the engine next time to use Ray Tracing and other graphical features Drake has, just don't expect it for 5 years.

Just add to this point. While the Switch is indeed more powerful than the Wii U, the difference is not a full gen. A good looking Wii U game is still a good looking Switch game, BOTW being the prime example. A flagship Wii U game could still be a flagship Switch game.

We expect Drake to be a full gen ahead of Switch and Nintendo would want to showcase a game that fully shows that. If were to guess, I would say that a fully open world Mario game is going to be that flagship, as Nintendo has been clearly working on such concept as shown in Bowser's Fury.

 

[ITSMILNER]

I wonder if this is also why some 3rd party games we know about have still not shown anything Switch related? Hogwarts Legacy and Marvel Midnight Suns are the 2 that spring to mind, could they be waiting for the digital event that announces Switch 2?

 

[Hush]

I’m not really sold on the last two adding an extra month. Showcasing software can happen after announcement in various forms & in pretty quick succession. Pre-orders will happen after the device is formally announced & it will probably be sold out anyway within minutes.

Consumers are dense, if this plays games not on Switch then they will drive home how it is not just another Switch model. Even the PS5 took its 5 months to reiterate everything new it was doing over the PS4. It will likely be less than that but not as brief as new Switch models that hardly added anything new outside of size and screens.

I simply think you underestimate people's ability to care about multiple things from the same company, that aren't releasing at the same time. I think that BoTW's consistent selling is proof enough that there's are plenty of Zelda fans and again, i don't understand why majority of the fans/buyers would just wait for no real reason.
Fans and consumers are able to pay attention to multiple things, not just "Zelda or new console."

I believe you also misunderstand it being "fine". It being fine means that it's going to sell amazingly due to being the hyped as hell sequel to the best selling Zelda. Nintendo would have to completely kill all interest in this game for it not to sell and I don't believe a new console that will 1. Release months after it and 2. Have ToTK playable on it day 1, is going to hamper that interest ala TLOU(I don't believe it being it a new ip or pandemic means the situation's completely different).

I´m not denying what you are trying to say, it very well could be that way and one could compliment the other in terms of social media engagement. But the optics and positioning of the announcement has to work in Nintendo´s favor. If TotK will bring the momentum alone leading to its launch, why announce it anytime within that range? Why not do it in the summer (a few weeks later) which is traditionally a dead period after the gaming shows? I believe this is how Nintendo sees things, looking for ways to keep their momentum going and hype consistently high.

 

[lieeiusex]

Do you think there will also be a patch for Breath of the Wild?

Nintendo had made the VR mode of BotW for Labo, I believe that they'll do more on the new platform than they did on Labo

 

[Sin Drive]

I´m not denying what you are trying to say, it very well could be that way and one could compliment the other in terms of social media engagement. But the optics and positioning of the announcement has to work in Nintendo´s favor. If TotK will bring the momentum alone leading to its launch, why announce it anytime within that range? Why not do it in the summer (a few weeks later) which is traditionally a dead period after the gaming shows? I believe this is how Nintendo sees things, looking for ways to keep their momentum going and hype consistently high.

The why is because they want to and assumedly know it wouldn't affect anything as much as some folks think it will. But we can end it here, I don't even believe it in a investor meeting announcement .

 

[Codename_Steam]

Drake will out perform Ayeneo 2's GPU (680M) in Ray Tracing easily, it can also target lower resolutions and use DLSS and hide the results behind a 7inch screen, and when docked it will be the same. RT performance will be around current gen consoles on Drake thanks to Ampere being vastly superior to RDNA in RT.

Is there a possibility that Nintendo will use TSMC 4NM for Drake, and if so, can we expect around 2 teraflops of performance in handheld mode? I'm curious about the performance of Drake's OFA and whether Nintendo could utilize DLSS 3.0.

 

[Link_enfant]

If the Pokémon DLC leak from 4chan is somewhat reliable, it would be extremely surprising to get such a patch for Pokémon and nothing for Zelda especially TotK.
They'll surely show it to present what kinds of improvements [REDACTED] can bring but probably not as the main focus, which should obviously be next gen exclusive games.
Obviously some people will inevitably be disappointed that they didn't have the hardware with Zelda to discover it in the best conditions, but that will probably won't be much of an issue depending of when & how they present [REDACTED] and which exclusive games with it.
In the end for Zelda I feel like it's still more important to deliver the best possible thing they can on current Switch considering the install base, and release some next gen patch later with DLC. Just like Pokémon (according to the 4chan rumor).

 

[Z0m3le]

Is there a possibility that Nintendo will use TSMC 4NM for Drake, and if so, can we expect around 2 teraflops of performance in handheld mode? I'm curious about the performance of Drake's OFA and whether Nintendo could utilize DLSS 3.0.

Yes there is a possibility, Thraktor seems to believe the possibility, and convinced me with all of his recent posts this last week. Nvidia bought a large TSMC 4N contract, but cut back on Ada production when bitcoin crashed, if Drake was always a late 2023 or 2024 product, Nvidia would be done with 4N by late next year, as they are on a 2 year cycle going back a decade+, moving onto Samsung 3nm with their next architecture then, meaning there should be plenty of "bandwidth" for a "Switch 2".

I do fully expect 2TFLOPs in handheld and 3.456TFLOPs docked via those clocks found in the leak, testing DLSS in NVN2. That would fit TSMC's 4N perfectly, while Samsung 5LPP was pretty close (we see that the power curve should clock it at or above 600MHz, TSMC 4N would more easily hit the 660MHz found in that test.

Drake's OFA should be more advanced than Desktop Ampere, as it's the same as Orin, how similar in performance it is to Ada's is unknown, but considering how much Nvidia is pushing DLSS 3.0 in their marketing and how important it would be if Drake were to use it, as devs would then put it in their ports on Drake and likely adopt it in PC versions as well, I don't think it makes sense to leave it out since Drake is coming out after Ada and Orin was only slightly behind Ada in release.

 

[Bosintang]

No, that's most likely impossible, there wasn't any new SoC being made for Nintendo in the leak last year, and it takes more than 2 years to make a new SoC, thus if Drake was scapped in the last 6 months, the successor would come out in 2026 at best and 2028 at worst I believe.

In that case, 2025 seems both too far for Drake and too early for another chip. To me, at least.

I still expect Drake in 2024, but even late 2024 would be surprinsingly late in my opinion. I still excpet a reveal from June 2023* to November 2023, and a release from March to September 2024.

If nothing is heard by November 30, 2023, then we will enter a chaotic era and I have no idea what's happening.

*Edit

 

[Hush]

The why is because they want to and assumedly know it wouldn't affect anything as much as some folks think it will. But we can end it here, I don't even believe it in a investor meeting announcement .

Lol sure but I think subconsciously we know that with Nintendo being the company they are they´ll be 100% committed to the Super Mario movie and TotK for the next couple of months and not much else. And I fully expect a non-comment about future hardware at the financial meeting lol

 

[Z0m3le]

In that case, 2025 seems both too far for Drake and too early for another chip. To me, at least.

I still expect Drake in 2024, but even late 2024 would be surprinsingly late in my opinion. I still excpet a reveal from June 20 November 2023, and a release from March to September 2024.

If nothing is heard by November 30, 2023, then we will enter a chaotic era and I have no idea what's happening.

June announcement is too early for a Spring release IMO, it also doesn't benefit Nintendo from a business point of view to announce a product this Summer for next spring that will slow it's current produce this Fall/Winter. Those days ended a decade ago, heck Microsoft didn't even announce Series X until XB1 was well into it's holiday.

A June announcement indicates this calendar year release IMO.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.

I don't think you're up to date then because there are mobile phones with rt now

 

[Deleted member 2]

I expect them to use the same internals but use a different design in the "new Dock"
whether that's just a slightly different shape... or a different color... or a completely different shape...

Why would you expect this?

 

[Bosintang]

June announcement is too early for a Spring release IMO, it also doesn't benefit Nintendo from a business point of view to announce a product this Summer for next spring that will slow it's current produce this Fall/Winter. Those days ended a decade ago, heck Microsoft didn't even announce Series X until XB1 was well into it's holiday.

A June announcement indicates this calendar year release IMO.

We will see. I have reasons* to believe that the console release timeframe is a gaussian centered around early 2024 with a fmhw of about 4 months. I do not believe in a full blowout announcement in June, more like an acknowledgement that the machine exists and is a new Switch generation. "Look forward to the New Nintendo Switch in 2024. Please be excited. Also please understand".

I think that October 2023 is a likely timeframe for seeing the console in details. April/May 2024 is the release alongside Mario 3D and maybe Metroid Prime 4 cross-generation, which will serve as a reminder that the OG switch won't die just now. Though it will. Soon.

*it appeared to me in a dream.

 

[Hush]

June announcement is too early for a Spring release IMO, it also doesn't benefit Nintendo from a business point of view to announce a product this Summer for next spring that will slow it's current produce this Fall/Winter. Those days ended a decade ago, heck Microsoft didn't even announce Series X until XB1 was well into it's holiday.

A June announcement indicates this calendar year release IMO.

Yeah, MS announced the Series X at the very end of 2019 for a few reasons

1) Xbox brand damage from the Xbox One meant they needed to play the long game in terms of spreading the word and building hype
2) They wanted to get ahead of the PS5 announcement
3) The VGAs was a big platform with fans of all brands having their eyes on the announcement rather than an Xbox specific event which would get less interest.

Nintendo really has none of these problems and can easily take only 3-5 months to properly launch the Switch 2. 2023 is also a year where there is a lot of Nintendo buzz outside games like the opening of theme park and the Mario movie

 

[Z0m3le]

We will see. I have reasons* to believe that the console release timeframe is a gaussian centered around early 2024 with a fmhw of about 4 months. I do not believe in a full blowout announcement in June, more like an acknowledgement that the machine exists and is a new Switch generation. "Look forward to the New Nintendo Switch in 2024. Please be excited. Also please understand".

I think that October 2023 is a likely timeframe for seeing the console in details. April/May 2024 is the release alongside Mario 3D and maybe Metroid Prime 4 cross-generation, which will serve as a reminder that the OG switch won't die just now. Though it will. Soon.

*it appeared to me in a dream.

This does go against the Pokemon DLC leak that Drake patch will be added in Winter, early next year. March 1st is probably the latest Drake could release. I do believe in a ~5 month window for release of Drake that goes from late October to early March.

Yeah, MS announced the Series X at the very end of 2019 for a few reasons

1) Xbox brand damage from the Xbox One meant they needed to play the long game in terms of spreading the word and building hype
2) They wanted to get ahead of the PS5 announcement
3) The VGAs was a big platform with fans of all brands having their eyes on the announcement rather than an Xbox specific event which would get less interest.

Nintendo really has none of these problems and can easily take only 3-5 months to properly launch the Switch 2. 2023 is also a year where there is a lot of Nintendo buzz outside games like the opening of theme park and the Mario movie

Yes, that was my point, Nintendo won't announce in June for a Spring release, there is just no reason to push it that far out, it also goes against the Pokemon Leak, which while not completely confirmed, does obviously have inside information attached to it, making it more reliable than anyone who has even suggested 2024. Jeff Grubb also did say he heard 2023 is a thing a month or so ago, though he couldn't confirm it at the time and I don't pay too much attention to him, so I don't know if he has changed his stance, one way or the other.

 

[Guaraná]

hey @Z0m3le thanks for all the infos

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think the NES is the only major game system to ever release between March and September for its original release date?

Not that it can't happen if software isn't ready, but it's very much a time period people do not aim for (as... game sales are low in that time period)

A February or March release date gets very weird pretty fast as you have to announce by November at the absolute latest and then... I mean, you just announced a successor to the Switch as the Switch's last holiday season is starting. June or July still makes more sense for a Switch 2 announcement if it's releasing Q1 2024.

 

[RennanNT]

Do you think there will also be a patch for Breath of the Wild?

At this point, I expect a resolution bump at best. The game will be around 7 years old when the new system releases, a definitive edition in the 10 year anniversary would make more sense.

They would be spacing the release between TotK and the next Zelda, give it more time to trigger nostalgia, they would be able to charge more for it and they will have more time and public feedback after they're done with TotK DLC.

 

[LuckyLuke]

At this point, I expect a resolution bump at best. The game will be around 7 years old when the new system releases, a definitive edition in the 10 year anniversary would make more sense.

They would be spacing the release between TotK and the next Zelda, give it more time to trigger nostalgia, they would be able to charge more for it and they will have more time and public feedback after they're done with TotK DLC.

The new Switch may have a "boost mode" like Ps4 Pro/PS5

 

[kvetcha]

I think the NES is the only major game system to ever release between March and September for its original release date?

Besides the Switch, I assume? Kinda depends on the market, but it's not unprecedented by any stretch.

NES:

Release date	JP: July 15, 1983 (Famicom) NA: October 18, 1985 EU: September 1, 1986

SNES:

Release date	JP: November 21, 1990 NA: August 23, 1991 UK and IRL: April 11, 1992 EU: June 1992

N64:

Release date	JP: June 23, 1996 NA: September 26, 1996 EU/AU: March 1, 1997

Gamecube:

Release date	JP: September 14, 2001 NA: November 18, 2001 EU: May 3, 2002

 

[ITSMILNER]

I would expect some bigger 3rd party support in the launch window this time round seeing as they will now know how popular the hybrid console is. Question is what will we get?

Capcom: REmake 2 native port (3+4 to follow later)
Square: FF7 Remake?
EA: Mass Effect Legendary Edition, EA Sports Football
Warner: Batman Arkham Collection
Embracer Group: Tomb Raider Reboot Trilogy, Saints Row?
Gearbox: Borderlands 3

 

[RennanNT]

The new Switch may have a "boost mode" like Ps4 Pro/PS5

Depending on how BC is implemented, we're potentially getting the max resolution and max fps the game was coded for (900p@30 docked for BotW), which is what boost mode does. But IMO there won't be a toggle (that is, either there won't be a boost mode, or the "boost mode" is always on), since they had multiple opportunities to do that on the Switch but didn't.

 

[Thraktor]

Alright, these are fair points. I personally fail to see why one would upgrade from the OG Switch for an OLED model considering the amount of extra money you have to pay (even after accounting for selling your current Switch), but I can simultaneously recognise that there could very well be a sizable group of people who do consider it worth the repurchase.

However, in terms of lost sales, I wonder if people who got 'duped' (note the scare quotes) into buying an OLED months before the Switch 2 release would actually be ailling to go and purchase the Switch 2 in a timely fashion, especially when games are cross-gen for a little while. They will probably jump on board later in its life cycle anyway, but you may have lost some early adopters potentially, which might not be something you want to risk with the launch of a new generation device, either.

I don't quite agree with the analogy: the Fiscal year meeting in May is the moment where they have to explain their financials to investors, so it holds more weight than, let's say, Valentine's Day. Of course, your point is that the pattern is that Nintendo always announced their hardware more than a year in advance, not that they timed it to please investors. That doesn't mean the investor meeting is not an important point ahead of which they would want to have announced their system, of course, just that there is no specific indication of that.

Well, sure, but then you move from the problem of being unable to explain your high hardware forecast to presenting an unnecessarily low forecast. Neither method seems like an approach that you would want to take very readily.

Yeah, my reference to Valentine's Day was obviously facetious, I just wanted to highlight that hardware being announced prior to the start of the FY doesn't necessarily mean Nintendo consider the start of the FY important w.r.t. hardware announcements.

I don't think they'll be presenting an "unnecessarily" low forecast, they'll just be presenting a realistically low forecast. Nintendo historically haven't projected sales for new generation consoles prior to their release, so I'd expect we're going to get a projection of about 14M Switch sales regardless of whether they've announced new hardware before the FY meeting or not. The only difference being if they have announced the new hardware they'll explicitly state that its not included in their forecasts.

Thinking about the likelihood that instead of a new mario kart nintendo just announces a season 2 booster course pass.

EDIT: There is no way that Ray Tracing on Drake will actually be used on anything besides some tech demo stuff and maybe some Shin'en sorcery. Any shading effects would need to be doable on both docked and handheld mode to retain seemless docking and undocking and the only handheld decently capable of ray tracing is the $1000 Ayaneo 2 at 22 Watt mode which has a battery life of barely more than an hour.

We know that T239 has ray tracing support, and NVN2 fully exposes this just as much as any other feature. Nintendo wouldn't have included this functionality if they didn't intend to use it.

It seems to be common for people to think that RT (and tensor cores, for that matter) are things that somehow can't function in portable mode, as if they operate by different rules than the rest of the GPU. RT cores and tensor cores are integral parts of the SM in Ampere, they're made on the same lithographic process, they run on the same voltage and at the same clocks as the rest of the GPU. If the GPU as a whole can clock down to function in portable mode with reduced power draw, then exactly the same thing is true of the RT and tensor cores, as they're an intrinsic part of the GPU. Any power savings that apply to the GPU as a whole apply to them. If it's not possible to run RT cores and tensor cores in portable mode in [redacted], then it's not possible to run an Ampere GPU at all in portable mode, which would be a much bigger issue for Nintendo.

Furthermore, the majority of ray traced effects currently in use scale with resolution. Reflections, shadows, ReSTIR-based lighting, etc., will all scale down in performance requirements as rendering resolution decreases in portable mode, just like most of the rest of the GPU's workload. There are some use-cases that don't automatically scale with resolution (I can think of probe-based GI like RTXGI as one example), but there are ways around this (eg reducing the number of active probes in portable mode), and it's not significantly dissimilar to existing probe-based lighting effects already in use in games like BoTW.

To be clear, I don't expect [redacted] games to be going crazy with ray traced effects, as it's obviously less powerful than a typical desktop GPU. However, unlike almost all games which we've seen supporting RT thus far, which have to also support non-RT modes for older hardware, going forward Nintendo's internal studios will be developing games exclusively for this new console, and therefore will be able to rely on RT hardware always being available. If the hardware's there, then developers will find a way to make use of it, particularly in the case of RT cores in Ampere, which can be used concurrently with regular shader cores/tensor cores, so there's little trade-off to using them.

 

[TheSentry]

The new Switch may have a "boost mode" like Ps4 Pro/PS5

I don’t really understand, from a technical perspective, how a boost mode works.

Does anyone know or have a hypothesis on how a potential “boost mode” could work on Drake and Switch 2? Do frame rates have to be unlocked or something?

 

[boodream]

The Pokemon leaker did say that their patch would be out early next year, in winter. That is Jan/Feb... Maybe March, the patch has to come out at or after the launch of Drake, but Drake could come out months before it, and it will certainly launch with software, if Switch has a strong enough 2nd half in software, why do we not have any known titles for the last 5 months of this calendar year? We don't even know of any titles that could exist, unless people think they will drop prime 4 this holiday on Switch as a holiday game, then release "Switch 2" just a few months later.

Since you want more, it's unlikely that Zelda doesn't get patched, that MK8D doesn't get patched, DLC for those games are almost certainly this calendar year, releasing a patch just for Drake after that, doesn't make as much sense as releasing those patches inside existing DLC for those games that they have scheduled already.

That's if we want to take the Pokémon "leak" seriously. In my opinion it's not totally convincing. Anyone who had access to the Pokémon Presents localization process could have made up the same leaks in theory. I also don't share your opinion about a patch of MK8D, knowing that it would make infinitely more sense to release an exclusive MK9 for the next generation. After all, despite all the DLC, MK8 will be 10 years old in 2024...

I'm not saying that the next generation won't be released in late 2023. On the other hand, the argument "we don't know anything after Pikmin 4" doesn't convince me at all either. They did a Direct on the first half of the year. There's nothing to stop them from doing a Direct on the second half of the year, it doesn't prove anything about the release date of the Switch 2. Again, I'm not saying it can't happen, but our current knowledge of planning is not a compelling argument in my opinion. However, I obviously hope for a release for Christmas 2O23.

 

[MP!]

Why would you expect this?

To differentiate it as a new product.
Again they could use the same internals but give it a new design.
They changed the design for OLED
Why wouldn’t they for a completely new system?

 

[Foxuzamakk]

I know his source for this tweet, basically the source gave him fake info about devkits just now going out, ("final" hardware devkits have been going out for months, and been able to be built since August/September last year). Hours after this source shared the information with the "leaker" he tweeted that... He isn't validating his sources at all. We only should trust 1 source for all our hard facts, and that of course... is @10k

Anyways, yeah that tweet is fake info, sorry I didn't see this, was actually told by the source mentioned above, that reddd mentioned me in a post. Right now information is going to be slow, production should be starting very soon if it does come out this year, but it should be this FY (ending exactly a year from now) however, I do think the end of this calendar year makes the most sense. People attribute Nintendo Switch's success as releasing in March instead of the holidays, which just is a hindsight problem, Switch could have easily sold 5 Million more units by the end of March 31st 2018 had they of released Holiday 2016, The reality is that holidays just have more space on retail floors because of holidays using endcaps, putting pallets on the floors and just filling up inventory in general, it literally is the difference between ~3 and ~5 million sales in a launch month.

Why I am so confident here, is that there is no known games after Pikmin 4, except MP4 which we have yet to see... The next direct will be brand new announcements and never seen before games, more over, Nintendo has a solid holiday, or they wouldn't have dropped MP1 in February for $39.99, the anniversary month which Nintendo has celebrated in the past is August, and if they had announced MP1 for August 2023 at $49.99, it would make a lot more sense than shadow dropping it at the end of a direct, digital only, for $39.99...

They also wanted the release to be positively received, and as a remaster/remake, they wanted it to look great, but if Drake were to be announced before it's release, people would have had too high of expectations for it, because MP1 was clearly done a long time ago, it was never meant for Drake, so at best, it would get a patch to run 4K, but assets and graphics were designed around Switch limitations, thus it wouldn't satisfy if Drake was on the market already, without going back and reworking it.

Drake is happening shortly, my GUESS is that we will see it in late June, during a digital event where they show off a bunch of games, and a launch this October or November, likely with 3D Mario, Zelda DLC, MK8D patch (among other evergreens), and Call of Duty, which I suspect Microsoft has asked Activision to port to the new hardware since they received final devkits. The current Switch will likely get a cloud version, as the Switch cloud company has a contract with Microsoft for Call of Duty over the next 10 years as well, in fact, in a weird way, the current Switch could see cloud versions of Call of Duty for the next 10 years... I think CoD Mobile and Warzone will also come to Switch as local versions of the franchise. Again, this is all just speculation, but yes "Switch 2" is probably being revealed this Summer, for this Holiday, and people who think it will come in Spring have to really ask themselves why Nintendo has nothing announced/dated after July, except for Metroid Prime 4, which is almost certainly not coming this year.

I think what you say makes the most sense, Nintendo has essentially said or shown NOTHING for the 2nd half of this year, it's unprecedented and could only mean so many things

 

[ITSMILNER]

It was also Nintendo saying they didn’t plan to hold an event around E3 as it didn’t line up with their plans. This made me think they have something planned but later in the summer (Something like a new hardware reveal for example)

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Consumers are dense, if this plays games not on Switch then they will drive home how it is not just another Switch model. Even the PS5 took its 5 months to reiterate everything new it was doing over the PS4. It will likely be less than that but not as brief as new Switch models that hardly added anything new outside of size and screens.

Consumers are not that dense. They can discern when something is a new device based on many factors outside of non cross-gen games. Like Nintendo has done a lot to distinguish the different models from each & yet somehow they won’t be able to with [redacted] because of cross-gen games? It’s a non-issue.

 

[Nintendojitsu]

Thankfully, the thread has regained its tech speculation roots and we can put the past week of emulation brainrot, broad overgeneralizations and the incessant doomgoggery behind us where it belongs.

 

[Concernt]

To differentiate it as a new product.
Again they could use the same internals but give it a new design.
They changed the design for OLED
Why wouldn’t they for a completely new system?

They changed the design due to the new circuitry, but that redesign included 4K output, freeing up USB 3.0 lanes on the USB-C/DP connector, and includes two models already. It was also only 2 years ago, not even that at present. Nintendo designs peripherals to last, literally. Nintendo Wi-Fi Adaptor AC Adaptor spanned three families of devices and two generations, Wii AV cables spanned two generations, NES AV and AC Adaptors spanned two generations, DMG 4 Player Multitap survived three redesigns and a new generation where it remained relevant to play BC games in 4 player mode.

If the shoe fits, the shoe gets worn. The GBA AC adaptor worked on DS, and so, it was used on DS, and so on, and so forth.

The dock is just that, it's a DMG 4 Player Adaptor, it's an AC Adaptor, it's AV equipment, it's all of this in one unit, and the Nintendo Switch Dock with LAN Port (which, somewhat oddly, doesn't use the term "Nintendo Switch Dock (OLED Model)") has more than enough technical specifications to handle the next generation of Nintendo devices, at least for now. From its increased ventilation to enhanced output abilities, and let's not forget much more forgiving tolerances, to the point even a thicker device could fit, nothing indicates that it was just the 2 year gap filler one might think it would be. Pennies. Matter. In quantities of a million. And in quantities of a hundred million, even more. Simplifying production going into a new generation by going from two docks and two sets of HDMI cables to just one that works across the entire range means huge savings, and all that wasted plastic making the ins and outs of the ventilation system on the Dock with LAN Port were hardly made for no reason; no existing Switch can come close to overheating in the Dock with LAN Port. Why is the best ventilated dock the one that comes with the most power efficient model?

Well, probably because it's also going to come with the most power hungry model.

Also, they have been VERY particular with the marketing, only ever marketing the White Nintendo Switch OLED Model and its White Dock with LAN Port. Nintendo Switch Dock with LAN Port (Black) has been broadly absent from advertisements, so the visual identity going into the next generation would be very very clear; white Joy-Con, white Dock, rounded design is the old Switch. Black dock, black/dark grey Joy-Con and a redesigned body is the new Switch. Nothing stops them from reusing it in advertising because it already has the capability to provide a unique identity in marketing. Did Sony really stress out that say, PS4 Slim and Pro shared so many design elements? Same idea.

Unless they want to push this thing to HDMI 2.1, which I see few benefits and a few caveats in even trying to do so, 2.0b will be fine, it even allows games to target 1440p120 if they want, because as impressive as this device is, 4K120 it is not.

Not to rehash myself too much, but there's also just plain consumer goodwill to keep in mind! Even Microsoft knows that, and kept controllers, cables, even power cables and HDMI cables, game drives and so forth, cross compatible across five models and two generations of Xbox and everyone loves them for it. When Nintendo is making a new console that must by means of its market position as a hybrid, observe the same formfactor as its forefather, it is such an easy win to ensure devices are compatible so we don't have to go out and buy all new Pro-Controllers and Joy-Con. Optional improved controllers? Sure, I'm game, that's what Xbox did and nobody complained, the Xbox Wireless Controller (2020) (Yes that's its official name.) is excellent, my favourite controller ever excluding those with gyro.

 

[Concernt]

That's if we want to take the Pokémon "leak" seriously. In my opinion it's not totally convincing. Anyone who had access to the Pokémon Presents localization process could have made up the same leaks in theory. I also don't share your opinion about a patch of MK8D, knowing that it would make infinitely more sense to release an exclusive MK9 for the next generation. After all, despite all the DLC, MK8 will be 10 years old in 2024...

I'm not saying that the next generation won't be released in late 2023. On the other hand, the argument "we don't know anything after Pikmin 4" doesn't convince me at all either. They did a Direct on the first half of the year. There's nothing to stop them from doing a Direct on the second half of the year, it doesn't prove anything about the release date of the Switch 2. Again, I'm not saying it can't happen, but our current knowledge of planning is not a compelling argument in my opinion. However, I obviously hope for a release for Christmas 2O23.

This device will be backwards compatible. I'm not speculating anymore, I'm sure of it.

In this case, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will be playable on it, yes? And getting updates until at LEAST the end of this year.

So why not provide a next gen patch to bump up the resolution?

They can have their cake AND eat it. They can keep Mario Kart 8 evergreen across two generations of consoles with a relatively minor patch (relative to how much else they've changed since 2014, like completely changing architecture, possibly twice). AND they can drive sales of the next generation with Mario Kart 10 as an exclusive. REDACTED can be the BEST way to play Mario Kart 8 Deluxe AND the only way to play Mario Kart 10.

Just like how Xbox Series X is the best way to play Forza Horizon 5, and the ONLY way to play Forza Motorsport 23. Cake. And eating it.

Short addendum, I find it kind of amusing how Microsoft ALSO has evergreens, and not small ones either. Forza Horizon 4 and 5, Master Chief Collection and Rare Replay come to mind, but things like Skyrim and FONV (both on Game Pass) also have ongoing audiences. Not as many, perhaps, but still, not to be discounted.

 

[Concernt]

Besides the Switch, I assume? Kinda depends on the market, but it's not unprecedented by any stretch.

NES:

Release date	JP: July 15, 1983 (Famicom) NA: October 18, 1985 EU: September 1, 1986

SNES:

Release date	JP: November 21, 1990 NA: August 23, 1991 UK and IRL: April 11, 1992 EU: June 1992

N64:

Release date	JP: June 23, 1996 NA: September 26, 1996 EU/AU: March 1, 1997

Gamecube:

Release date	JP: September 14, 2001 NA: November 18, 2001 EU: May 3, 2002

Kvetcha is doing graphic design with FamiMarkdown, holy moly!

Looks great in Dark Mode, by the way!

Thanks for keeping Ireland and the UK separate. Weirdly all these console launched during Ireland's only period of free-floating fiat currency, but customarily the currencies were exchanged 1:1 in that period anyway.

Edit: GCN released after the Euro's introduction in Ireland, oops.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Besides the Switch, I assume? Kinda depends on the market, but it's not unprecedented by any stretch.

NES:

Release date	JP: July 15, 1983 (Famicom) NA: October 18, 1985 EU: September 1, 1986

SNES:

Release date	JP: November 21, 1990 NA: August 23, 1991 UK and IRL: April 11, 1992 EU: June 1992

N64:

Release date	JP: June 23, 1996 NA: September 26, 1996 EU/AU: March 1, 1997

Gamecube:

Release date	JP: September 14, 2001 NA: November 18, 2001 EU: May 3, 2002

I missed the N64 here, but I meant a non-inclusive between. Obviously many systems have launched in September and March, but April, May, June, July, and August are very uncommon original release dates for systems. (Europe got a few console releases in that period, but only well after the system had launched in Japan. America got a couple as well, but generally a few months after the JPN release). An April or May release date just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would aim for based on history and just seems like a "we're waiting for our big launch game to finish development" date instead.

 

[Hosermess]

I expect them to use the same internals but use a different design in the "new Dock"
whether that's just a slightly different shape... or a different color... or a completely different shape...

They'll call it Switch² and yes, it's a square

/s

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

I think Zelda is a big enough deal for Nintendo to let it breathe for a month or two, then have a major direct that details the rest of the year in late June or ealry July. Late 2023/Early 2024 are both great times to release the new hardware so it could easily go either way.

If I were Nintendo and decided to launch this year, I would actually have MP4 and 3D Mario come out in 2024 and let 3rd party shine for the first 3 months. The system is going to sell out regardless, and upgrade patches for older titles, overall system improvements, and switch 2 exclusive 3rd party content will be incentive enough for the hardcore Switch fans to be there day 1.

 

[Z0m3le]

That's if we want to take the Pokémon "leak" seriously. In my opinion it's not totally convincing. Anyone who had access to the Pokémon Presents localization process could have made up the same leaks in theory. I also don't share your opinion about a patch of MK8D, knowing that it would make infinitely more sense to release an exclusive MK9 for the next generation. After all, despite all the DLC, MK8 will be 10 years old in 2024...

I'm not saying that the next generation won't be released in late 2023. On the other hand, the argument "we don't know anything after Pikmin 4" doesn't convince me at all either. They did a Direct on the first half of the year. There's nothing to stop them from doing a Direct on the second half of the year, it doesn't prove anything about the release date of the Switch 2. Again, I'm not saying it can't happen, but our current knowledge of planning is not a compelling argument in my opinion. However, I obviously hope for a release for Christmas 2O23.

Sorry, while the Pokémon leak isn't proven outside of the Pokémon information, it's much more convincing than your gut. No one's job in a speculation thread is to convince you, and even if they did, it wouldn't change reality. It either is or isn't happening this calendar year despite our hopes and dreams. Sometimes people get hung up on trying to convince others, I'm not doing that, just speculating, everyone is free to take or leave it however they want. I hope this isn't coming off as rude, I'm just pointing out that what we believe doesn't matter, if you want to explain your reasoning on why you think one outcome is more likely than the other, rather than reminding us that we are just speculating in a speculation thread, it would be constructive.

 

[Hush]

Consumers are not that dense. They can discern when something is a new device based on many factors outside of non cross-gen games. Like Nintendo has done a lot to distinguish the different models from each & yet somehow they won’t be able to with [redacted] because of cross-gen games? It’s a non-issue.

If that were true, the Wii U wouldn´t have tanked as hard as it did. Even the PS5 went out of its way to change the aesthetic of the brand, going with a white and black motif for all its PS5 products to reinforce the idea ¨This isn´t just another PlayStation¨. A lot of people could easily see the next product as ¨just another Switch¨ and say they are fine with the one they have. Because in reality, people could have said the same thing to the PS5 and just held onto there PS4 for some more years.

Every console maker wants fast adaption and at a rate higher than the one before, setting new records for the company. And its the prelaunch months that are absolutely formative to long lasting demand

 

[Deleted member 887]

I don’t really understand, from a technical perspective, how a boost mode works.

Does anyone know or have a hypothesis on how a potential “boost mode” could work on Drake and Switch 2? Do frame rates have to be unlocked or something?

The way "boost mode" works on other consoles is pretty straightforward. A game that is not enhanced to take specific advantage of the new hardware is run in backwards compatibility mode, but with higher clock speeds. The idea is that any place a game struggles on the old hardware will be improved on the new hardware without any extra patches.

Games with capped frame rate will max out that frame rate consistently, and games with unlocked frame rates will see higher frame rates over all.

Games with dynamic resolution will see the max resolution achieved more often.

Games with loading screens will see those get shorter.

 

[Deleted member 2]

To differentiate it as a new product.
Again they could use the same internals but give it a new design.
They changed the design for OLED
Why wouldn’t they for a completely new system?

They don't need to differentiate the dock as a new product if you only see it after you bought it.

The actual Switch device is what needs to look different.

 

[boodream]

This device will be backwards compatible. I'm not speculating anymore, I'm sure of it.

In this case, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will be playable on it, yes? And getting updates until at LEAST the end of this year.

So why not provide a next gen patch to bump up the resolution?

They can have their cake AND eat it. They can keep Mario Kart 8 evergreen across two generations of consoles with a relatively minor patch (relative to how much else they've changed since 2014, like completely changing architecture, possibly twice). AND they can drive sales of the next generation with Mario Kart 10 as an exclusive. REDACTED can be the BEST way to play Mario Kart 8 Deluxe AND the only way to play Mario Kart 10.

Just like how Xbox Series X is the best way to play Forza Horizon 5, and the ONLY way to play Forza Motorsport 23. Cake. And eating it.

Short addendum, I find it kind of amusing how Microsoft ALSO has evergreens, and not small ones either. Forza Horizon 4 and 5, Master Chief Collection and Rare Replay come to mind, but things like Skyrim and FONV (both on Game Pass) also have ongoing audiences. Not as many, perhaps, but still, not to be discounted.

you are right. They could do that. Personally I just really don't think they will, but we'll see. MK8 is the best selling Nintendo game of all time. With all due respect to Forza, which I love very much, I don't know if this compares. Not to mention the fact that Forza 5 wasn't already released 10 years before the Xbox Series.

 

[boodream]

Sorry, while the Pokémon leak isn't proven outside of the Pokémon information, it's much more convincing than your gut. No one's job in a speculation thread is to convince you, and even if they did, it wouldn't change reality. It either is or isn't happening this calendar year despite our hopes and dreams. Sometimes people get hung up on trying to convince others, I'm not doing that, just speculating, everyone is free to take or leave it however they want. I hope this isn't coming off as rude, I'm just pointing out that what we believe doesn't matter, if you want to explain your reasoning on why you think one outcome is more likely than the other, rather than reminding us that we are just speculating in a speculation thread, it would be constructive.

I love to speculate and I come here because I love reading other people's speculations. I didn't mean to be unpleasant, I'm sorry if I gave you this feeling. I really think the "we don't know anything after Pikmin 4" argument is irrelevant on its own. The Nintendo Direct in February specifically talked about the first half of the year, so I don't see the fact that it did not mention anything beyond July as a relevant clue at all. That's all I'm saying. It's not the speculation that I'm arguing against, it's this argument, personally, that I find flawed.

 

[Hush]

I think Zelda is a big enough deal for Nintendo to let it breathe for a month or two, then have a major direct that details the rest of the year in late June or ealry July. Late 2023/Early 2024 are both great times to release the new hardware so it could easily go either way.

If I were Nintendo and decided to launch this year, I would actually have MP4 and 3D Mario come out in 2024 and let 3rd party shine for the first 3 months. The system is going to sell out regardless, and upgrade patches for older titles, overall system improvements, and switch 2 exclusive 3rd party content will be incentive enough for the hardcore Switch fans to be there day 1.

Even if it sells out, they absolutely have to have a big first party game ready. The 3DS had a weak launch line-up and it ended up haunting it well into the first which Nintendo had to work hard to turn around. The last thing Nintendo wants is bad press about there being ¨nothing to play¨ (meaning no compelling new exclusives because most people have other consoles/PC) for the launch of the new platform

 

[Bonejack]

I wonder if NoA people read this thread thinking "Damn, they kinda got our strategy here. Oh, well, i'm sure they will be stoked when we announce it." or "Those damned fools, hahahaha, so wrong.".

Of course, in the spirit of this thread, i'm going with the first option. ;D

 

[FeiFongWong]

I wonder if NoA people read this thread thinking "Damn, they kinda got our strategy here. Oh, well, i'm sure they will be stoked when we announce it." or "Those damned fools, hahahaha, so wrong.".

Of course, in the spirit of this thread, i'm going with the first option. ;D

"Damn, they saw through our plan. Lets delay it." XD