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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I have to admit, I’ve been periodically refreshing to see if you responded to this:

This has already been discussed extensively here in the group, and the conclusion that most have reached is that yes T239 was designed for Nintendo, it is a chip clearly with features designed for gaming, the big GPU, 8 A78 cores in a single cluster without efficiency cores or X cores, stripped out the useless parts of Orin that wouldn't be used for gaming, and even added an FDE that's perfect for a console like Switch. T239 was also discovered in a leaked NVN2 file, which is basically a Nintendo-only API.
 
Wouldn't a 5nm SoC mean that is not based on the Orin? Rather a brand new custom made?

Also I thought that being on 8nm made it “cheaper” to produce as it’s on a older node than 5mn?
 
This has already been discussed extensively here in the group, and the conclusion that most have reached is that yes T239 was designed for Nintendo, it is a chip clearly with features designed for gaming, the big GPU, 8 A78 cores in a single cluster without efficiency cores or X cores, stripped out the useless parts of Orin that wouldn't be used for gaming, and even added an FDE that's perfect for a console like Switch. T239 was also discovered in a leaked NVN2 file, which is basically a Nintendo-only API.
oh, I don’t need to be convinced, I was just hoping to vicariously enjoy a Twitter schooling.
 
I'm watching Nvidia's micro-mesh session and I can see the similarities with Epic's Nanite. they're not the same, but have similar principles from what I can see. there is a conversion process for both, though with Nvidia's DMM, you can use external tools (Simplygon, Marmoset, 3D Coat, Substance).

it's hardware accelerated and works well with mesh shaders, but I can't find if it absolutely requires a Lovelace gpu or is just hardware accelerated on Lovelace

Wouldn't a 5nm SoC mean that is not based on the Orin? Rather a brand new custom made?

Also I thought that being on 8nm made it “cheaper” to produce as it’s on a older node than 5mn?
the only similarity Drake has with Orin is that it has the same CPU and GPU arch. other than that, it's a custom product. always was. 8nm would make it cheaper, but the chip is also larger, which makes it more expensive
 
ADEV exists, but I think we can make a decently accurate guess, based on when rumors suddenly started talking about it, that it didn't really become generally available until summer 2021, close to the announcement of the hardware itself. There's probably a scenario where Bloomberg's sources were a mix of devs on the earliest inner circle track for Drake and the wider, but still early access, track for ADEV (which might have still had 4k output at that point), but I'm not sure that really materially changes the scenario much outside of explaining a few things. I still wouldn't discount the scenario where this played out mostly internally to Nintendo back in 2019, since early reports of the red box Switch seemed to hype it up as more than what we got, but that's not necessarily mutually exclusive with a scenario where the 4k output specifically manages to survive until pretty close to launch.

Regardless, none of this would contribute to any reports of cancellations in 2022 beyond providing some background information for rumors to form from.

I agree that it doesn't contribute to reports of cancellations in 2022, but the Digital Foundry comment in particular didn't state that a cancellation happened in 2022. What they said (paraphrasing) is that "at one point internally there was a mid generation update planned, but it seems no longer to be happening", which is consistent with something like a plan for a 4K capable version of Aula that could have been cancelled in 2021 or before. He also used the word internally, so it's possible that dev kits didn't venture far outside of Nintendo.

Also forgive my ignorance, but is T239 considered part of the Tegra line? I haven't heard of anything being referred to as "Tegra" post-X2.

So I mean... if that person is right and Tegra has been dropped, could that mean Mariko has ended production in preparation for Drake to ramp up or..?

Internally, all of Nvidia's SoCs (including Orin) are designed by the Tegra group, and they're all given codenames starting with T for Tegra. However, Nvidia haven't used the Tegra name publicly for either Xavier or Orin. My guess is that they wanted to drop the association with earlier Tegra chips (which are primarily small consumer-focussed SoCs) as they introduced these much larger automotive-focussed chips. Personally I'd guess that they'll still use the Tegra branding for T239, as it's their first consumer SoC since Tegra X2, but it's possible they'll just drop it altogether.

I have to admit, I’ve been periodically refreshing to see if you responded to this:


"NVN2 isn't for Nintendo" has to be the weirdest take that keeps coming up. Do they think there's some other company out there working on a device using the next version of Nintendo's proprietary graphics API?
 
Wouldn't a 5nm SoC mean that is not based on the Orin? Rather a brand new custom made?

Also I thought that being on 8nm made it “cheaper” to produce as it’s on a older node than 5mn?
It can be based on another design yet still be on another node.

I don't think there's any way we can know what would be cheaper too. 5nm is probably a bit more expensive to secure fab space but the actual cost per chip would probably be lower so it will either even out or wind up being cheaper in the long run. But "probably" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. We just don't know.
 
How can we know if the T239 that received Linux support is the same T239 from NVN2, I mean in the sense that in that gap of time maybe there were some changes in the project, like a change of node maybe, or something like that would certainly change the numbering of the project?
 
I was thinking Nintendo can attemp VR as an add on similar to PSVR. But the difference would be it being wireless. Basically the Switch would be docked into the headset itself. Using the Switch battery and chip to power the headset. The Joycons can be used as controllers too. So the only cost would be the headset, lenses, and outer cameras. It would be more a Quest competitor rather than a PSVR2 in terms of pricing. Obviously it wouldn't be dirt cheap but they can undercut Quest 3 and PSVR2 price as they do not need to bundle controllers like PSVR2 or include a chip and battery like Quest.

Then you also have the Nintendo exclusive you can't get on PSVR2 and Quest. Imagine Mario Kart VR, WarioWare VR, Wii Sports VR, Zelda VR and etc.
Having Switch be docked into the headset sounds cumbersome.....
 
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Orin is listed as using 8LPP. 8LPU doesn't exist, it was canceled. As I mentioned this chart posted by Zedark is advertised numbers, and that they are rough estimates, there is also too many factors in designing a chip, to actually have every chip made on 2 different nodes, hit these exact efficiency differences. We do have a tool Nvidia uses for Orin power consumption estimations, and we also know TSMC 4N is a lot better than half the power consumption, so the closest node for the DLSS test's naming to relate to the clocks (which is up to some debate, though I don't think it makes any other sense) is Samsung 5nm process nodes.

Also, just for the record, the leaker never back tracked on 5LPP, he simply said that it "seems" to be canceled. He also mentioned that the chip simply "disappeared" from wherever he got the info.
Where is Orin listed as using 8LPP? And where was it stated that 8LPU was cancelled? This chart still has it.

And I don't get why you're insisting this account is credible. There's a gigantic volume of posts about phones there, which might have occasionally been right about something as impressive as, "the next Galaxy phone will use a Snapdragon N" where N is 1 greater than the previous Galaxy phone used. They say a lot of stuff. I don't see any notable leaks there and I certainly don't see anything relevant to Nvidia. Their current claim about the RTX 50 series using Samsung is also almost surely BS, this far out from the launch of those GPUs.
 
The new Twitter citee having an Indianapolis telephone number is fun. Curious if it’s legit or a virtual number since its Windstream serviced (not Google voice).
 
How can we know if the T239 that received Linux support is the same T239 from NVN2, I mean in the sense that in that gap of time maybe there were some changes in the project, like a change of node maybe, or something like that would certainly change the numbering of the project?
Product numbers like T239 would not be reused as it could mess up all sorts of development work or testing that was built before such a change. Creating a new number and avoiding naming collisions is far simpler.

T239 being intended for a future Shield product and REDACTED is a much simpler explanation than trying to frustrate the information that got out in the hack.
 
No. He gives a second rumor that it was canceled recently. I talked with him directly and basically Drake is/was 5LPP, but the place where he got the info, the info for it disappeared, which he assumes means it was canceled.

From the public Linux info, we know that isn't the case, and he was unaware of the Linux kernel updates for the chip, as well as Nvidia's Hack info related to the chip. It simply disappeared from wherever he sourced the information when he went back to get more info. He is a big Samsung leaker, it wouldn't surprise me if Samsung saw the tweet and cleaned up the Tegra line info he was reading from (this last part on his source is my speculation, but he mentioned that the chip "seems" to be canceled, alongside the canceled Atlan, mentioning Thor... 3 Tegra chips, likely his source is a Tegra list of some sort.
Thanks. Appreciate the explanation.
 
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Where is Orin listed as using 8LPP? And where was it stated that 8LPU was cancelled? This chart still has it.

And I don't get why you're insisting this account is credible. There's a gigantic volume of posts about phones there, which might have occasionally been right about something as impressive as, "the next Galaxy phone will use a Snapdragon N" where N is 1 greater than the previous Galaxy phone used. They say a lot of stuff. I don't see any notable leaks there and I certainly don't see anything relevant to Nvidia. Their current claim about the RTX 50 series using Samsung is also almost surely BS, this far out from the launch of those GPUs.

To follow up on this, the big red flag about their RTX 50 claims is that they made a specific claim that the RTX 5070 is being manufactured by Samsung. There's no such thing as an RTX 5070 die for Samsung to manufacture, rather a variety of dies across Nvidia's next generation architecture (presumably Blackwell), which Nvidia will choose from, based on cost, yields, performance, etc., selecting a particular binning of one of the dies to become the desktop version of RTX 5070 when full scale manufacturing begins (probably more than a year from now), and then a different binning of a different die to become the laptop version of RTX 5070. Note that no reputable leaker of Ada information claimed to know about the RTX 4070, 4080, etc., they all talked about AD102, AD103, and soforth, because they knew that the marketing names given to specific binnings of specific dies could change right up to the announcement (and even after the announcement, as happened with the RTX 4080 12GB being renamed to RTX 4070 Ti).
 
So, is the Next console still supposed to be around Series S or was that false?
No one ever said that as a rumor as far as I know. Only from some time ago that a Switch Pro could be around a XBOX One S (before DLSS).

If anything the power of the successor still is all speculation and assumptions at the moment. Personally I wouldn‘t expect something much more powerful than a Steam Deck. Especially because Nintendo will likely have different priorities like having more battery life.
 
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To follow up on this, the big red flag about their RTX 50 claims is that they made a specific claim that the RTX 5070 is being manufactured by Samsung. There's no such thing as an RTX 5070 die for Samsung to manufacture, rather a variety of dies across Nvidia's next generation architecture (presumably Blackwell), which Nvidia will choose from, based on cost, yields, performance, etc., selecting a particular binning of one of the dies to become the desktop version of RTX 5070 when full scale manufacturing begins (probably more than a year from now), and then a different binning of a different die to become the laptop version of RTX 5070. Note that no reputable leaker of Ada information claimed to know about the RTX 4070, 4080, etc., they all talked about AD102, AD103, and soforth, because they knew that the marketing names given to specific binnings of specific dies could change right up to the announcement (and even after the announcement, as happened with the RTX 4080 12GB being renamed to RTX 4070 Ti).
(Just to be clear, I agree with what you said.)
But to play devil's advocate, OreXda never said that the RTX 5070 is the only GPU fabricated by Samsung. OreXda could have meant that the RTX 5070 is one of the GPUs fabricated by Samsung. And the Korea Economic Daily did write an article saying that Nvidia will use Samsung's 3 nm** process node for fabricating GPUs. (So far, the Korea Economic Daily was correct in saying Tesla using Samsung to fabricate HW 4.0 since HW 4.0's using Samsung's Exynos IP. But of course, nobody knows which process node is being used to fabricate HW 4.0, so whether the Korea Economic Daily's claim of Samsung's 7 nm** process node being used to fabricate HW 4.0 is true or not is unknown.)

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
 
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Yes at the moment they are all hypotheses. But even I think it will be like Steam Deck or slightly better.
 
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Samsung worked with Epic on this demo, so maybe Lumen for Mobile might manifest today

Ray-tracing_Main5.jpg

Ray-tracing_Main6.jpg

 
This SoC design seems to be the best option if you want to take a Switch game and use DLSS to make it instead run at a locked resolution and locked framerate that matches the screen resolution and refresh rate you are playing on...with some left over to sprinkle in some higher graphics IQ as well.

I mean...what are people expecting this thing to do besides mostly this?
If that's all you want, you're wasting money by not going with a much simpler chip than T239. No need for 12 shader modules or whatever.
The software that drives those ecosystems demand that older hardware be tossed aside faster than not. That only makes financial sense if you can get their consumer base to move over from the old hardware to new hardware as quickly as possible. The only way to do that, is to market the new hardware as a "gen breaking successor" type hardware. Get it fast cause thats where all the software focus will be soon!

I dont see how or why this Drake Switch would need to be any way similar to your analogy?
What you're describing isn't the PS5 or Xbox Series, either. These are the least gen-breaking successors in history, but they're also something clearly different and more desirable than what was before.
I have to admit, I’ve been periodically refreshing to see if you responded to this:

That guy seems pretty obsessed about NVN2 not necessarily being linked to Nintendo in any way, I had a little Twitter discussion with him about it half a year back. And using the same damn GIF.
 
Where is Orin listed as using 8LPP? And where was it stated that 8LPU was cancelled? This chart still has it.

And I don't get why you're insisting this account is credible. There's a gigantic volume of posts about phones there, which might have occasionally been right about something as impressive as, "the next Galaxy phone will use a Snapdragon N" where N is 1 greater than the previous Galaxy phone used. They say a lot of stuff. I don't see any notable leaks there and I certainly don't see anything relevant to Nvidia. Their current claim about the RTX 50 series using Samsung is also almost surely BS, this far out from the launch of those GPUs.
https://wccftech.com/nvidia-next-gen-gpu-architecture-powered-orin-soc-announced/ they confirmed via Nvidia directly that Orin was 8LPP. Does anything at all use 8LPU? I brought it up a year ago and no one could find any 8LPU info and that it had basically died at the time.

I've also gone on record that Nintendo will use 5nm Samsung, that has been my logical conclusion for a long time now. Drake would be over 250mm² on Samsung 8nm nodes. Nintendo isn't using a SoC that big, costly, and power hungry. It's a silly notion, I don't really care about the leaker, but I have no reason to discredit him either. I don't believe internet cred is worth much at all, so if he is a known leaker, I'm just using what he said as a way to introduce the logic of 5nm Samsung, as it is a sister chip to Orin on samsung
 


This really is wild. Within 24 hours the leaker shares news about a new Tegra for Nintendo on 5LPP and then later that day its canceled? Really strange. On one hand I want to believe the 5LPP is legit, but then if I'm buying into that I have to consider the possibility that it was indeed canceled. This would seem like a disastrously situation to have it canceled right as it was about to begin manufacturing. This would have been a significant volume for Nvidia to secure well in advance, and to have it halted at the last minute?
 
This really is wild. Within 24 hours the leaker shares news about a new Tegra for Nintendo on 5LPP and then later that day its canceled? Really strange. On one hand I want to believe the 5LPP is legit, but then if I'm buying into that I have to consider the possibility that it was indeed canceled. This would seem like a disastrously situation to have it canceled right as it was about to begin manufacturing. This would have been a significant volume for Nvidia to secure well in advance, and it have it halted at the last minute.
The simpler read is that this person is really not a leaker and we have no real reason to listen to them. Sure, Drake can be on 5LPP but not because this random person who happens to speak Korean says so.

People keep claiming they have a track record but nothing in their tweet history actually suggests that, they seem to post and retweet all sorts of rumors that do not originate with them.
 
I feel that this topic is really good at making interesting and very educated speculations on the hard data which we have, and conversely extremely bad at identifying snake oil salesmen.
 
$400 is too much, look what happened to the 3ds when it cost $100 more than the ds at launch, the launch was a disaster and they had to drop the price to $169, if they had listened to Reggie the 3ds would have sold better

I think Reggie highly exaggerates his knowledge back then. Writing a book after all is said and done is easy, but he was there and didn’t prevent the Wii to Wii U falldown. I also don’t think it was only him voting for making Wii Sports a pack-in. In Europe the Super Nintendo came with Mario World as an example. He highly benefited from being the outspoken western guy which was missing to market Nintendo in America against XBox and Sony otherwise I mean he left Nintendo for a reason.
 
I feel that this topic is really good at making interesting and very educated speculations on the hard data which we have, and conversely extremely bad at identifying snake oil salesmen.
I think the problem is that people expect facts from rumors, instead of discussing rumors AS IF they were facts. The problem isn't that some known (unknown to us) "leaker" posted that Drake is 5LPP, the problem is that everyone wants to discuss him, and not the topic or the information's viability, which is basically the most likely and most disappointing realistic node available.
 
Sometimes there really isn't anything else to discuss, so may as well talk about the snake oil.

Not that this thread doesn't love turning me into Bill Murray some days with the rotating reheated topic du jour.

giphy.gif

(too may appropriate gifs to pick from)
 
Sometimes there really isn't anything else to discuss, so may as well talk about the snake oil.

Not that this thread doesn't love turning me into Bill Murray some days with the rotating reheated topic du jour.

giphy.gif

(too may appropriate gifs to pick from)
Not wrong there. There are some days where I pop in here and think I'm rereading an old thread from a few pages back.
 
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I think the problem is that people expect facts from rumors, instead of discussing rumors AS IF they were facts. The problem isn't that some known (unknown to us) "leaker" posted that Drake is 5LPP, the problem is that everyone wants to discuss him, and not the topic or the information's viability, which is basically the most likely and most disappointing realistic node available.
nailed it. we have very little information to go on so anything new that pops up, regardless of whether it's 'verifiable', is fair game for speculation.
 
I think the problem is that people expect facts from rumors, instead of discussing rumors AS IF they were facts. The problem isn't that some known (unknown to us) "leaker" posted that Drake is 5LPP, the problem is that everyone wants to discuss him, and not the topic or the information's viability, which is basically the most likely and most disappointing realistic node available.

The problem is we don't need a lot of help speculating the possibilities and people are getting anxious for real info manifest. When a "leak" appears saying a new Tegra is being manufactured at Samsung with the 5LPP process, that is exciting not because of the process itself, but the idea that it is indeed being manufactured. This gives credibility to the idea that Switch Redacted would be launching later this year. So when the "leaker" turns out to be a bust, its pretty depressing and this thread reflects that. It was going absolutely crazy yesterday and slowed down to a snails pace today. Its hard to fathom, but doubt beings to creep into the mind that maybe this is the hardware that @NateDrake talked about being canceled, and Nintendo really did go back to the drawing board. Its hard to come up with a good explanation for how something so far along would just get scrapped sending Nintendo back to the drawing board, but its also easy to see that people are ready to believe leakers telling them what they want to hear and ignoring any leakers telling them things that they do not want to hear.

All I know is that im not a fan of console generations going much beyond five years with no new generation within sight. I should be more excited for Zelda TotK than I am, and if Switch Redacted had been releasing alongside it, I know I would be more hyped for the game. Im sure it will be great and I will play the crap out of it, but playing games with visuals from a decade ago has started to wear thin. I love my Switch and it has served me well since 2017, but here in 2023 I am starting to get the itch, and if Nintendo doesnt scratch that itch they will find one of their dedicated customers flirting with one of their competitors.
 
nailed it. we have very little information to go on so anything new that pops up, regardless of whether it's 'verifiable', is fair game for speculation.
And part of that speculation can and should involve discussing how reliable that information might be.
 
And part of that speculation can and should involve discussing how reliable that information might be.
100% This thread kind of moved so fast yesterday that it quickly went from who the F is this guy on Twitter to we have confirmation that Drake is currently be manufactured on 5LPP at Samsung. If we had taken are harder look at the guy giving the info and found him to not really be credible, the thread would have about a hundred less post as of today. Although we did help YouTubers make some money so I guess it wasnt all bad.
 
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Can someone fill me in on what's the difference between LPP and size by nanometers? Highly technical chip stuff makes my brain smooth over
It’s branding.

Nanometers used to mean something specific in the context of Moore’s law. You could get a reliable increase in performance by making transistors smaller.

That stopped nearly 2 decades ago. Instead we have to use a whole suite of different techniques to achieve performance boosts. But foundry companies kept using the numbers to talk about the rough level of power those new techniques got you.

Now even that has broken down, and the suite of tech used is even more diversified. Because of that, the naming convention at each foundry starts to get more and more specific. 5LPP is a Samsung specific label for a specific, highly refined version of what the industry in general would call an “8nm process” which is, to be extra confusing, is distinct from the thing Samsung calls 8nm, which is, in fact, 10nm.

Confused?

tl;dr - within a foundry company, smaller numbers are “better” or at least “more advanced.” But you can’t compare across companies that way. The letters after are individual company branding a for refinements so specific to one industry, or relatively minor that it doesn’t qualify for a numerical upgrade. Think of them like point versions.
 
3.45TF + 9X DLSS (720p to 4K, Ultra Performance Mode) results in performance and resolutions on par with PS5, with the sacrifice of image quality. Though CPU and RAM limitations would come into play.

There is reason to be hopeful.
 
my unironic favorite thing about the thread is the fact that expectations range from a bit worse than the steam deck to a bit worse than the god damned playstation 5
 
my unironic favorite thing about the thread is the fact that expectations range from a bit worse than the steam deck to a bit worse than the god damned playstation 5
PS5 is not that impressive.

As for myself, it certainly APPEARS to be a case of both. A worse than Steam Deck CPU but resolutions targeting not-quite-PS5.

I mean, that IS what we're discussing, a mobile SOC with the target of 4K output, after DLSS.
 
PS5 is not that impressive.

As for myself, it certainly APPEARS to be a case of both. A worse than Steam Deck CPU but resolutions targeting not-quite-PS5.

I mean, that IS what we're discussing, a mobile SOC with the target of 4K output, after DLSS.

The PS5 uses 200W on bleeding edge hardware and is fucking enormous.

The Switch 2 has to hit 11W and has to be very light!
 
It’s branding.

Nanometers used to mean something specific in the context of Moore’s law. You could get a reliable increase in performance by making transistors smaller.

That stopped nearly 2 decades ago. Instead we have to use a whole suite of different techniques to achieve performance boosts. But foundry companies kept using the numbers to talk about the rough level of power those new techniques got you.

Now even that has broken down, and the suite of tech used is even more diversified. Because of that, the naming convention at each foundry starts to get more and more specific. 5LPP is a Samsung specific label for a specific, highly refined version of what the industry in general would call an “8nm process” which is, to be extra confusing, is distinct from the thing Samsung calls 8nm, which is, in fact, 10nm.

Confused?

tl;dr - within a foundry company, smaller numbers are “better” or at least “more advanced.” But you can’t compare across companies that way. The letters after are individual company branding a for refinements so specific to one industry, or relatively minor that it doesn’t qualify for a numerical upgrade. Think of them like point versions.
So basically, 5LPP = 8nm (actual) and the Samsung 8nm people have been talking about as a worst case scenario = 10nm (actual)?
 
How does it hit 3.45 TF on 11W.

This has to use like half as much power as the Steam Deck which is, uhh, not close to the PS5.
With a 5nm process node drake hitting 3.5TF on 11W is about right. Orin does it at 22W, and a 2-2.5x improvement in the perf to power ratio is what Lovelace has over Ampere.

We've talked about this several times, but there is no x86 processor that comes anywhere near ARM in power efficiency. Those Zen 2 cores in Steam Deck eat something like 2-3x as much power as ARM cores at the same frequency on the same process node, and clocks up to 3.5GHz. Orin can already significantly beat Steam Deck in GPU perf/watt for that alone.

Ampere matches RDNA 2's perf/watt despite the fact that Ampere is on SEC 8nm and RDNA 2 is on TSMC 7nm. And we know from the Lapsus$ hack that Drake backports power saving tech from Lovelace. Orin can beat Steam Deck now, but Drake is built for additional power efficiency. Get it off SEC 8nm, and something like a 50% power reduction for similar GPU perf is pretty reasonable.

All that to say - Steam Deck's single threaded CPU performance will still be out ahead, it's not Apples to Apples across the board. And @Concernt isn't suggesting that Drake will match PS5 in power, but that, if pushed to the limit, then there is enough power in Drake to hit 4K/ultra performance with similar frame rates to PS5. That's... not a wild claim. I don't happen to think that would be where Nintendo sets docked performance, but that's pretty uncontroversial.

Whether you'd want to look at a PS5 game running like that, that's another question. I think I'd probably prefer DLSS Quality Mode, run it at 1080, and get integer scaling on my 4k TV, with fewer upscaling artifacts, but lower detail. But that doesn't mean it wouldn't work.
 
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Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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