Dekuman
Starman
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me too. But ball's in Nintendo's court, if they come out with a straightforward Switch successor with the power we are expecting, the naysayers will go away.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Look, we know they got the hardware right, we just need them to not fuck up the crossover period, UI, eShop, saves etc.
Any gimmicks on top of that would be just gravy.
D
Deleted member 2
Guest
This gives me big "do your own research" energy
Look over there
Bob-omb
I thought that the Series X and S are outright separate dies, instead of the S being a salvaged X?
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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AFAIK, yes, but also no. It can be made seperately, and with half the silicon it takes to make a Series X chip. And better yields, too.
But in theory, if say, 5 or more CUs of a Series X die are unusable, and the number of functioning CUs drops below 52, or if the CPU can't reach the maximum frequency in a stable way, but can do just below, those can be binned into Series S SOCs.
I'm not sure if I've seen strong evidence to the effect of such happening, but I'm not sure what else they'd do with an otherwise perfect 50CU Xbox SOC. Binning is common and cost effective.
Xbox is more or less set up to try and avoid yield pitfalls. 52CUs available but 56 on the die mean that small imperfections don't require any changes or binning and go straight into Series X. Drops below 52, and it gets caught by Series S. If it manages to drop below 20, it's probably not worth doing anything with it at that point.
If someone has evidence to the contrary, please let me know! As usual this is just to the best of my knowledge.
D
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It should be obvious that the HAL we're referring to is the UDA specific HAL. You're assuming I don't know what a HAL is. By my phrasing I can see how one might assume I don't what HALs are. I had assumed that because of the context of the discussion that I don't need to specify which specific HAL I'm talking about.
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I understand how drivers and ring 0 work. You don't need to explain this to me. Although others may find it useful. (Sidenote: Anti cheat using Ring 0 is unsafe and unnecessary, they can do their job without accessing ring 0, where mostly only drivers should be. Your anti virus doesn't even need ring 0 access to do its job.)
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I was touching on not needing the HAL per sey by talking about the unified instruction set. Which means that the next gen chips after X1 still use the same core instructions as a foundation. Because of the unified instructions a lot issues are already mitigated in advance. The Maxwell drivers on the Switch don't need to initialize a PC GPU. And if it does or not doesn't really matter. It needs to initialize the Tegra SoC versions, not PC GPUs. Telling me it won't work on a PC GPU natively doesn't mean much. Of course it won't, its on ARM, not x86. If the Maxwell code can't initialize the ARM version of Orin then you have my attention. I would not expect it to initialize any non ARM hardware. The fact that it can at all speaks highly for the UDA's capabilities.
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I guess I assumed that it would be understood that the UDA gets adapted to ARM so the ARM version of UDA isn't going to 1:1 with the Windows version. Which doesn't really matter, and isn't the point. The point is that the UDA is too valuable too lose. I don't see Nvidia ditching it when it can help them sell chips to vendors. Yes, the ARM version is going to be specific to ARM, that should be implicit.
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Appeal to Authority is the correct and proper name for that logical/formal fallacy. You're nitpicking semantics and creating a strawperson fallacy.
In logical and formal argumentation it is a fallacy to use authority as proof. Below are sources that explain the fallacy. It's worthwhile to educate yourself about formal fallacies and logical argumentation.
Argument from authority - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Your logical fallacy is appeal to authority
You said that because an authority thinks something, it must therefore be true.yourlogicalfallacyis.com
Appeal to Authority
Insisting that a claim is true simply because a valid authority or expert on the issue said it was true, without any other supporting evidence offered. Also see the appeal to false authority.www.logicallyfallacious.com
I am not aware of Nvidia referring to the Unified Instruction set as a "UDA ISA." Can you show a reference where Nvidia uses that terminology? It is the first I've seen it.
As I understand the unified instruction set the maxwell microcode inherently uses the unified instructions. The unified instruction set is core to the Nvidia architecture. The Unified instructions are at all levels. Otherwise we would need a specific driver for every new GPU generation like the before fore times.
You keep fixating on shaders specifically. They are important and all. But there is a lot more going on with GPUs than shaders. What about vertex calls, rasterization calls, etc?
Did you read the patents? They address microcode, etc.
Example:
"Unified microcode assembler 240 converts the shader program assembly instructions in vertex shader program 215 and fragment shader program 220 into microcode for execution by vertex processing unit 255 and fragment processing unit 260, respectively. GPU unified microcode assembler 240 is configured to operate in a runtime mode in order to output the shader microcode to the appropriate execution unit within graphics processor 250 as the shader microcode is generated. GPU unified microcode assembler 240 determines which of the execution units within graphics processor 250, e.g., vertex processing unit 255 and fragment processing unit 260, a shader program targets and includes domain specific interfaces corresponding to the inputs and outputs of the target execution unit. In some embodiments of the present invention, the target execution unit is identified by a header or tag in the shader program, e.g., vertex shader program 215 and fragment shader program 220. Vertex processing unit 255 and fragment processing unit 260 execute the shader microcode produced by GPU unified microcode assembler 240 and graphics processor 250 outputs processed graphics data 270."
Source: https://patents.google.com/patent/US8154554B1/en - "Unified assembly instruction set for graphics processing"
You don't need to use the HAL if you're using the same hardware...
Of course the HAL is not in use right now. There's no need to use it.
The UDA is more than a methodology. It's core component of the Nvidia architecture. The Unified instructions set means that the UDA is more than a simple methodology. It is patented as an invention, not a process. And that matters.
Again, of course they're going to adjust things specifically for ARM and not do it how windows does it. Of course the UDA will need to be adapted.
The fact that a switch game can initialize a Maxwell GPU for PCs says a ton about how versatile and useful the UDA is.
The reason that is even possible is because of the UDA. I did not even know that a Switch game can initialize a Maxwell GPU until you mentioned it. I assumed that wouldn't happen because ARM isn't x86.
Also reframe this and remember this is a much more powerful SoC running much older games. I think it's safe to presume that the new Switch will have enough headroom that the HAL helping out with old games won't be too much overhead. Remember that because of the limits of the X1 they super slimmed a lot down. We can not assume that the new Switch will do the same. You're kind of assuming the new Switch will have the same limits as the old one. And putting everything in that frame.
Oh my god dude, nobody's making an appeal to authority just because they're saying somebody's words have weight to them. Chill out with the debate class.
If anything, you're employing the fallacy fallacy by discrediting them purely on the appeal to authority.
Dekuman
Starman
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I know the evidence is great for T239 to be the Switch 2, but I will admit I am part of the problem. I've been disappointed too many times after the lead up to Nintendo hardware announcements I just want them to announce and we somehow confirm the device is what we think it is before I can say 'ok that's it, we got it right' and finally move on.
SiG
Chain Chomp
Are you sure?
I'd say they'd double down and still keep fanboying about how they wish Nintendo went 3rd party so they could play <insert latest amazing Switch successor title> on Playstation or something.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Those clocks weren't pulled out of thin air. They were found in a DLSS test inside NVN from the Nvidia hack. The clocks were named after power consumption of 4.2w, and 9.3w... The test is very odd, because it couldn't have been final hardware, but target specs are very possible. In some way they relate to Drake, as they are DLSS test specs inside of NVN.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
There is nothing we can do about that. If you can't believe Nvidia hack which information is about 12 months old right now, then there is nothing outside of official information, and I doubt that comes with specs anyways.
I forgot the details but there was something about Drake having a shader model version above Orin and below Lovelace. Maybe reaching, but if Drake is the only chip with that version, it could definitely be related to Maxwell BC.
What I'm saying is that there could be slight hardware customizations to aid with there software solution, which I believe even Xbox is doing to some degree.
pelusilla6
Bob-omb
If we get Drake with a LCD screen i wouldnt be surprised
Eclissi
Moblin
There would be one thing: stop buying Switch games to urge the arrival of the new console.
But this had to be done before, perhaps with Pokémon (since in my opinion a signal should have been given that such scarce titles technically cannot be successful)...
Now with Metroid and Zelda it can't be done
TLZ
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TLZ
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Watched it right before work. Thanks for the video.
Even though I already read everything here, but I can't get enough of spec talk
Armoured_Bear
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I'm in the same boat, really hoping to get confirmation and move on.
However, part of me would not be surprised at Drake being scrapped for a far more modest update.
I'm nowhere near as confident as many people here, you can complain about "Because Nintendo" all you want but it exists for a reason, there is a long history behind it.
No, it doesn't mean It'll happen again but older Nintendo fans have had the rug pulled for decades, scepticism is reasonable.
If we get Drake specs with HDR, I'll set my pants with happiness.
Armoured_Bear
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Great video, nice, easy to understand explanation.
Armoured_Bear
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Why is a Series S easier to use than a Series X?
TLZ
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Oh I know they're not made up of course. Apologies if that's how my post came across. I just meant going by what Nintendo did with the Switch I expect the same with Switch 2. Tbh that still sounds good. I'd love to see Nintendo go with higher clocks, but they're still bound by battery life and wattage limits.
I wonder if these all were best case scenario stress tests for undocked and docked.
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It’s not. It’s just her personal preference
Armoured_Bear
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She wrote " think it's the easiest console to use all-around."
I'm curious as to why, I haven't used one but thought from a useabiity point of view, it would be exactly the same as the Series X, same UI, controller etc.
AFAIK It's just a smaller, cheaper, underpowered Series X.
Maybe I'm missing something..
"Because Nintendo" is a very valid reason for concern and I certainly don't blame people for that; I would even say that it is a rational point of view to base one's expectations on previous patterns.
With that being said, after what the Nvidia Hack taught us, it would be really bizarre, even by Nintendo's standards, to not release something at least of the level of Drake considering that it's designed for them and ready to go, and that we will be 7 years after the Switch. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is the longest gap for a Nintendo home console.
While I have always been doubtful if not outright dismissive of what I believed were baseless claims that the new console would release during H2 2022, H1 2023 (TM), I am very confident that the next Nintendo console will be Drake or better. The "because Nintendo" would be, at this point, them going for Samsung 8nm and clocking it lower than the OG Switch for example. It would still be a decent machine, but it could be much better. A bit like the OG Switch being 20nm.
With that being said, after what the Nvidia Hack taught us, it would be really bizarre, even by Nintendo's standards, to not release something at least of the level of Drake considering that it's designed for them and ready to go, and that we will be 7 years after the Switch. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is the longest gap for a Nintendo home console.
While I have always been doubtful if not outright dismissive of what I believed were baseless claims that the new console would release during H2 2022, H1 2023 (TM), I am very confident that the next Nintendo console will be Drake or better. The "because Nintendo" would be, at this point, them going for Samsung 8nm and clocking it lower than the OG Switch for example. It would still be a decent machine, but it could be much better. A bit like the OG Switch being 20nm.
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Idk what it is, but the fact that she says “I think” is just a personal opinion piece that she prefers the S.
Its certainly easier to move around.
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
I have been slowly coming around to the view that if GPU performance specs are talked about on this thing, it will be presented as “Up To 3 or 4TF”. I don’t think they’ll be as shy about it primarily because the Switch’s success has restored much of the confidence lost during the Wii U/3DS era. That, and Nvidia will surely speak on it, too. The inclusion of DLSS also tells me that tech disruption will be a theme. The innovation in SoC design has alluded to this for some years, and I feel it will lead to some pleasant surprises.
I simply stated that IF it was Lovelace-derivative, that would effectively confirm a 5nm(4nm) process. It’s true that Ampere is the most probable outcome, but we don’t actually know if anything else has been added to the custom SoC. I do remember there being whispers about the possibility of Lovelace in a prospective successor in 2021 (it was reported as “Switch Pro”, but there never was a “Pro”), and the LinkedIn findings have alluded to that a little. Kopite7Kimi also put that out there initially - So, Certainly, there is smoke and fire to this. It could be moving the SoC to the same lithography process as the Lovelace GPUs, or some of the feature sets being brought over for it, or that the SoC has been developed alongside Lovelace GPUs, but started with Ampere ones as some sort of foundation. Still, what gains there are to be made, which can be translated to a low-power consumption, high performance device is surely on the table. After that, we have Nintendo’s roadmap stating 20XX, and it suggests they’re willing to take their time and get this right. All are real possibilities for a system coming in 2023/2024 at the earliest. I suspect it will inherit some more features from Lovelace, but what exactly, we don’t know yet. Either way, the main point for others to take from it all is that what we’re discussing isn’t going to be “dated” or “underpowered”, and in real-world performance terms, it has the potential to be very disruptive.
We have information from the horse’s mouth on this. To get 2TF docked performance, it would, under much better conditions than what existed in 2017, have to be clocked lower than the current Switch at 660MHz. To get 1.4TF, you would have to clock it at 457MHz. For some perspective, the Steam Deck doesn’t have a docked mode, but it clocks at 1.6GHz, which is “home console territory”. We know that portable mode has been tested at 660MHz, and docked modes at 1.1GHz and 1.3GHz. You’re underestimating how far mobile tech has come, and the reality of performance and efficiency gains due to improved lithography processes, architectural evolution, better cooling tech, etc. Even the latest flagship-specced phone GPUs are clocking over 500MHz. Over 700MHz, in some cases - The “It’s portable, so, it must be a very low clock” line of thought is grossly overplayed on here, in the face of what we’ve actually seen from Nintendo, AND it ignores that phones are portable, too. They are also thinner, without the same ventilation as the current Switch, often “always-on”, having multiple cameras, having high-speed UFS drives, and managing multiple apps in the background, as well as cellular, 5G, etc.. None of that is to say they’ll hit 1GHz clocks in portable mode, but under much better conditions, it isn’t beyond the realm of reason to imagine the GPU hitting 500-700MHz frequencies, or double that in docked mode. I mean, part of the advantage of having a high-performance GPU is that it allows more room for manoeuvre.
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People in this thread have delved into the Nvidia leak quite a bit, are quite conclusive that this soc is thouroughly ampere.
theguy
Paratroopa
if the switch 2 is as good as the speculated specs i don’t think i’ll buy or play any 3rd party games anywhere else
edit: the only thing that would potentially sway me is an achievement system, tbh the hybrid nature of the switch is also perfect for trying to 100% everything and have something to show for it, is it a hardware limitation which doesn’t allow for this on current hardware?
edit: the only thing that would potentially sway me is an achievement system, tbh the hybrid nature of the switch is also perfect for trying to 100% everything and have something to show for it, is it a hardware limitation which doesn’t allow for this on current hardware?
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Brave of you to assume a (i don't have a better term) "powerhouse" Switch 2 would somehow make all dumb reasons a game might skip Switch disappear. ;D
Switch 2 could come with a literal "port button" that would do everything automatically and you'd still have decision lotteries from certain devs and pubs. ^^
theguy
Paratroopa
for me personally, most third party games i like or want to play have become available on switch, except for of course the potentially technically not possible ones
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Personally I think some are jumping the gun a bit.
All we can really say for certain right now is the number of cores it'll have, the clock speeds still depend on a whole host of factors and can change dramatically even from what developers have seen in devkits.
Simba1
Bob-omb
Very informative post but I think you have overly very positive expectations.
-I expecting GPU power in around 1-1.5 TFLOPs in handheld mode and around 1.5-2.5GHz TFLOPs in docked mode
-I am willing to bet that Switch 2 will not have 8 core CPU clocked at 2GHz, but I could see 8 core CPU with around 1.5GHz
-RAM realistically can be expected from 8GB to 12GB, 50 GB/s - 102 GB/s
Even without DLSS thats huge generational upgrade over current Switch and very rounded hardware, but not really comparable with Xbox Series S (thats at end home console with full desktop CPU), but Switch 2 hardware with DLSS should be enough to get big 3rd party game running around 1080p at end.
Dekuman
Starman
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I think the reports of a Switch revision being scrapped is what bothers me. It was kind of dropped on us without much follow up since. I suspect an overclocked Mariko model intended as part of the OLED SKU was what they decided against, but it could as easily be the T239 model and they are going with something we have no clue about and the hardware itself may be less impressive, perhaps to save on the launch price. who knows. I could spin theories forever.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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I can understand tempering expectations, but I think even at minimum viable GPU clocks you'd beat this
DF already said they suspect Drake to be in the next system (at least Rich did), so there's not many other options than the overclocked Mariko idea
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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I actually wouldn't be surprised if they announce it to investors either immediately before or during the fiscal year earnings release. They have to make projections for the next FY, and absent of any new hardware, they're going to be projecting large drops in pretty much every metric. That's a tough sell to investors if your only commentary is that you're in "uncharted territory". I could see them releasing a press release along the lines of the original 3DS announcement, simply confirming they're going to release a new hardware platform this fiscal year, and it will be backwards compatible with Switch software, possibly not even including the name of the new device. Enough to head off concerns about declining sales of the original Switch while leaving the actual reveal for a later date.
I honestly don't think there's a big deal with announcing it before Zelda releases. Last of Us Part II released literally a week after Sony's not-E3 PS5 showcase in June 2020 and still broke sales records. I don't think they'll show, or talk about, higher res version of ToTK running on the new console until after the game launches, but simply announcing that a new console exists shouldn't meaningfully impact software sales.
In terms of visual expectations, I would imagine the typical first party [REDACTED] game in docked mode will have better image quality, but be running less intensive graphical effects than a typical first party Series S game. In part because DLSS should provide better IQ than alternative reconstruction techniques like FSR, but also because Series S games are built as Series X games first and foremost, and the easiest way to get them running on the less powerful hardware is simply cutting down the render resolution.
In that sense, I think the One X might actually be a better touchpoint for the next Switch than the Series S for people who don't really understand the underlying technologies. It won't be a One X with modern features in the literal sense, but if you look at One X in terms of IQ, and add support for ray tracing, etc., you're probably not a million miles off.
What are these minimum clocks in your opinion?
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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I was basing that assumption on a combination of the skepticism in this thread that Nintendo would go lower than the current Switch's clocks, combined with some chat here regarding Ampere's power curve, which becomes highly power-inefficient below a certain speed. I'm open to being corrected if I've misinterpreted anything.
edit: I should clarify that I’m mostly speaking to the lower end of the scale that @Simba1 had outlined.
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Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
Sure, and I have never been in denial about that. However, it's also true that we're discussing a CUSTOM SoC, and other elements can be and have been added to it. That can't be ignored, and I'm nowhere near the first person to mention it. Respected leakers, news outlets, LinkedIn accounts, and more have pointed to that, hence my comment about the possibility of Ampere as some sort of foundation. I feel there is room to consider it here.
OP
OP
And after T239 details from the illegal Nvidia leaks were discussed, kopite7kimi admitted to being wrong about T239 being Ada Lovelace based.
(kopite7kimi wasn't completely wrong since Drake's known to inherit at least one feature from Ada Lovelace (same with Orin).)
Simba1
Bob-omb
If GPU at end really has 1536 Ampere cuda cores, 48 Tensor cores and 12 RT cores,
we dont know what will be customized and what exactly product (chip) will be at end in Switch 2.
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what's even the clock floor for ampere right?
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I didn't mean to cause quite so much consternation with such a statement!
Yeah, ease of moving and setting it up is a BIG one for me. Someone might kill me for this but also the lack of a disk drive. I mean I like my Series X but I never use the Series X disk drive and having to keep a disk in the drive to stop it headbanging when the console reboots is a knock against the usability!
Easier to use doesn't always mean BETTER, I mean the disk drive is objectively BETTER, and I do use it, but BARELY. To the point I genuinely like the ease of use of Series S. And of course lower complexity means less to go wrong, easier to clean, less chance of something breaking!
Would a Nintendo Switch without a Game Card slot be better? No. But would I consider it easier to use? Yeah! Less to break!
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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But there ARE objective minimums, and even THOSE would make me very happy.
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Yeah I'm more or less assuming the floor is current Switch clocks, and even those make this quite a nice upgrade.
If that's what worries you, don't worry.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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T239 seems like a pretty sure bet?
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
Reminder that the onus is on individuals to get a grip of their own emotions, rather than demand everybody else be negative under the facade of "keeping their expectations in check". If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. Nothing discussed here has been outside the realm of possibility, and he didn't pull that info from a magic hat. Even a 2GHz CPU would be clocked at around 60% of its capacity (3.3GHz), so, it's already clocked lower than its potential. But just remember that whatever you post here, it's going to have RT, DLSS, and it will need to be able to perform them competently, so, wherever you believe the final specs will land would do well to be reconcilable with that. A 1.5TF docked performance would doom it to failure, while needing to clock closer to the Switch Lite to get there, being a waste of the Earth's resources, and entirely unfit for a generational purpose in 2024 and beyond. It would impress no-one. Lowball approach is still lowballing, especially in the face of what is known, and no matter how much it wants to masquerade as "realistic".
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