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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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D36 said:
I should have specified, but could you put it in layman's terms? I'm not all that tech literate, I'm barely able to parce what people are saying when they start getting into the nitty-gritty 😅
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16nm: much more efficient process node, which was used on Mariko, as well as ps4 slim which was released half a year before the switch.

TX2: Tegra X2, which has double memory bus width of TX1. Which effectively means double memory bandwidth.

A72: Much more efficient cpu.
 
Hermii said:
16nm: much more efficient process node, which was used on Mariko, as well as ps4 slim which was released half a year before the switch.

TX2: Tegra X2, which has double memory bus width of TX1. Which effectively means double memory bandwidth.

A72: Much more efficient cpu.
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Ahhh, and what we wound up with was a system that was weaker than a PS4.
For, clarity's sake, how close do you think our hypotheses is to what we're going to get?
 
D36 said:
Ahhh, and what we wound up with was a system that was weaker than a PS4.
For, clarity's sake, how close do you think our hypotheses is to what we're going to get?
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To be clear, even if we had gotten all of that it would have been weaker than ps4, except maybe on the cpu side.

Me, I'm on the 4nm hype train for Drake. But I wouldn't be too surprised if it doesn't pan out.
 
D36 said:
Ahhh, and what we wound up with was a system that was weaker than a PS4.
For, clarity's sake, how close do you think our hypotheses is to what we're going to get?
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It wasn't much different really. We were still looking at 256 cuda cores and four A57 CPU cores, but it was really the memory bandwidth that looked so bleak with the standard Tegra X1. Memory bandwidth has been a bottleneck on Switch, but the numbers on paper had many believing it was going to be a total nightmare. Regardless, the optimistic thoughts were a custom X1 on 16nm clocked around 1.5Ghz docked with a 128bit memory bus instead of 64bit like the standard X1. Best case scenario was looking like a 768 Gflop chip, less than half the performance of the PS4. Then the information got out that it was a stock X1 and not even running at max clocks. Those were dark times. LOL In retrospect, things worked out rather well and that little underclocked X1 punched above its weight. It was always a pipe dream to think a mobile SOC in 2017 was going to get anywhere near Xbox One and PS4 levels of performance, those machines were pulling 150 watts.
 
Thraktor said:
I actually wouldn't be surprised if they announce it to investors either immediately before or during the fiscal year earnings release. They have to make projections for the next FY, and absent of any new hardware, they're going to be projecting large drops in pretty much every metric. That's a tough sell to investors if your only commentary is that you're in "uncharted territory". I could see them releasing a press release along the lines of the original 3DS announcement, simply confirming they're going to release a new hardware platform this fiscal year, and it will be backwards compatible with Switch software, possibly not even including the name of the new device. Enough to head off concerns about declining sales of the original Switch while leaving the actual reveal for a later date.

I honestly don't think there's a big deal with announcing it before Zelda releases. Last of Us Part II released literally a week after Sony's not-E3 PS5 showcase in June 2020 and still broke sales records. I don't think they'll show, or talk about, higher res version of ToTK running on the new console until after the game launches, but simply announcing that a new console exists shouldn't meaningfully impact software sales.
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The original 3DS announcement pretty likely only happened that way because it was in the process of being leaked by Nikkei, and Nintendo wanted to just get their announcement out there instead of having to either acknowledge or deny the reporting. I disagree that there's any chance of a "press release announcement" of new hardware in the foreseeable future. That was a different era of Nintendo.
 
Goodtwin said:
Then the information got out that it was a stock X1 and not even running at max clocks. Those were dark times. LOL In retrospect, things worked out rather well and that little underclocked X1 punched above its weight. It was always a pipe dream to think a mobile SOC in 2017 was going to get anywhere near Xbox One and PS4 levels of performance, those machines were pulling 150 watts.
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From what I recall folks lowballed the potential of the X1 because Android affected performance of games running on Shield TV. With the low-level NVN API they were able to squeeze more out of the Switch without needing to run at higher clocks.
 
TheSentry said:
Has Nintendo talked about specs and performance any time recently?

I haven’t heard them talk about chips or performance related stuff since the GCN days.

I don’t think Nvidia shared much about the Switch’s specs or technical details either once it was released (probably at the request of Nintendo).

I know some times they share how much RAM and what chip family is inside, but I don’t think they typically release many specific numbers.

So, other than tear downs and hacks once the new console gets released, I really doubt we’ll ever get much in the way of specifics like hertz and TFs.

Maybe I am wrong. Have I missed something in regards to Nintendo sharing this type of info?
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Armoured_Bear said:
22 years is "Lately"?

For Nintendo to start showing off about specs, they'd have to reverse their tech culture of the last 20 years, I don't expect that to significantly change, even if Switch 2 is anywhere near as powerful as some people believe (and no, they don't know, they believe).
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I think it is actually understandable they didn't talk about performance since GCN days. What was there to be proud about the DS, 3DS, Wii or Wii U's performance? What was there to be excited about? All of those were inferior to the competition performance wise. Also they may not have talked about performance for the Switch but they showed it from the first trailer. Playing Skyrim, console NBA 2K or BOTW on a portable system was basically saying this is a beast of a portable system. You can see in many third party game trailers, they like to zoom out to show the game running in portable mode again showing how you can have this big game in the palm of your hands.

I don't expect Nintendo to detail all the specs but I really don't think they will treat and hide it's performance like the Wii or whatever. They will show what it can do like they did with the Switch and more.
 
KMStwo said:
I think it is actually understandable they didn't talk about performance since GCN days. What was there to be proud about the DS, 3DS, Wii or Wii U's performance? What was there to be excited about? All of those were inferior to the competition performance wise. Also they may not have talked about performance for the Switch but they showed it from the first trailer. Playing Skyrim, console NBA 2K or BOTW on a portable system was basically saying this is a beast of a portable system. You can see in many third party game trailers, they like to zoom out to show the game running in portable mode again showing how you can have this big game in the palm of your hands.

I don't expect Nintendo to detail all the specs but I really don't think they will treat and hide it's performance like the Wii or whatever. They will show what it can do like they did with the Switch and more.
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and even then nintendo did talk a bit about the wii's firepower lmao.

The first game announced for the wii was Prime 3, i think reggie talked about how the wii was capable of big visuals and etc.
 
Serif said:
From what I recall folks lowballed the potential of the X1 because Android affected performance of games running on Shield TV. With the low-level NVN API they were able to squeeze more out of the Switch without needing to run at higher clocks.
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Not to interrupt the hype parade for the new hardware, but Serif is right. I'm still impressed at what the Switch can do sometimes. Yoshi's Island is one of the Switch's only Mario Kart tracks to call its own, and it's pretty amazing, visually. The scale is incredible, compared to other tracks in the game. Sure it might not technically impress, but I think it's an excellent use of hardware. Visually it's about as close to flawless as I've seen in a 1080p game.

It's weird to think that, come Mario Kart 10, the only tracks labelled "NSW" instead of "TOUR" or "Wii U", are going to be Yoshi's Island and whatever comes next.

(The other "new" tracks are mislabelled as new rather than Tour/Mobile)
 
Simba1 said:
I would love that Switch 2 has 3.5 TF, but I dont think its realistically to expect something like 3-3.5TF in basically handheld device, even Steam Deck thats much bigger than current Switch has 1.6TF.
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Worth remembering: the SteamDeck isn't a monster because it's a powerful handheld, it's a monster because it's a tiny PC.

The CPUs that SteamDeck is stuck with eat 2-3x as much power as the ones in REDACTED, and generate a crapload of heat, which in turn require a big fan, heat sink and battery. Moving from Zen to the Austin cores alone opens up huge headroom in the power and heat budget. For comparison, the iPhone 14 is a 2 TFLOP machine.

Also, Steam Deck doesn't have a true "docked" mode, again, because PCs don't. When you dock a Switch, the system tells the game "Hey, I just altered the memory clock, the GPU clock, and screen size, can you change all of your settings real quick?" PCs don't do that, and the Valve assumes if you want to spend the majority of game time attached to a screen you'll just buy a gaming PC. Valve's level of performance is optimized for that 720p screen.

In Nintendo's case, they need to optimize both sides, because 50% of folks spend the majority of their Switch time docked. And they have a software stack that supports it. That means a 2-2.5x jump in docked mode, to deal with the 2.25 increase in pixels. If you have a handheld mode that is 1.3TF - a bit below the SteamDeck's handheld power - that's 3TF in docked mode.

Not saying that's what we're getting, just saying that when you compare to Steam Deck, you gotta think about how Switch (and presumably REDACTED) has a totally different design strategy. You can't directly compare the Steam Deck's handheld performance to REDACTED while Docked, and you can't directly compare Steam Deck's "Mini PC" power draw to REDACTED's "beefy tablet" approach.
 
KMStwo said:
Playing Skyrim, console NBA 2K or BOTW on a portable system was basically saying this is a beast of a portable system. You can see in many third party game trailers, they like to zoom out to show the game running in portable mode again showing how you can have this big game in the palm of your hands.
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This is what I expect from the reveal. Elden Ring, RDR2, Jedi Survivor, Resident Evil remakes, Armored Core, etc. on a sleek tablet - boom. "Yeah this shit is next-gen". Pop in some eye-searing open-world 3D Mario and hey look here's my wallet
 
Concernt said:
Not to interrupt the hype parade for the new hardware, but Serif is right. I'm still impressed at what the Switch can do sometimes. Yoshi's Island is one of the Switch's only Mario Kart tracks to call its own, and it's pretty amazing, visually. The scale is incredible, compared to other tracks in the game. Sure it might not technically impress, but I think it's an excellent use of hardware. Visually it's about as close to flawless as I've seen in a 1080p game.

It's weird to think that, come Mario Kart 10, the only tracks labelled "NSW" instead of "TOUR" or "Wii U", are going to be Yoshi's Island and whatever comes next.

(The other "new" tracks are mislabelled as new rather than Tour/Mobile)
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MK8 really has been terrific, and the added value from the DLC has been amazing, even if some of the early courses looked like a step in the wrong direction visually. MK8 is one of the better looking games on Switch and it runs at a flawless 60fps and renders at 1080p native. It makes me giddy to think of what Nintendo will be able to do for the next Mario Kart game with the power of Drake. I do get a kick out of some of these YouTubers who think Nintendo will just try end sell MK8 Remastered on Switch Redacted. Yes MK8 has sold amazingly well with 50 million sold, but a huge portion of Switch Redacted buyers will have owned a Switch and probably MK8. How many people are going to fork out $60-70 for a 4K build of a game that was practically a launch title for Switch in 2017? I'm a big Nintendo fan, I had a Wii U and MK8, but I am not buying MK8 for a third time. Wii U ports to Switch made all the sense in the world. There were a bunch of quality games on a failed system that deserved another chance for success.

I think some people have misinterpreted the long rollout of DLC for various Switch titles in 2023 as being a sign that Nintendo has no plans for new hardware any time soon, but I believe this is actually an effort to keep their audience engaged with the Switch platform right up until the day they announce new hardware. Switch has sold 120 million units, but they don't have 120 million active players. As a generation goes on there will be players that lose interest and move on to other consoles or other forms of entertainment entirely. Finding a way to keep people engaged with their platform for the long duration is essential for continued success. Keeping as many Switch gamers engaged with MK8 will pay dividends when the next MK games launches on redacted.
 
Concernt said:
Not to interrupt the hype parade for the new hardware, but Serif is right. I'm still impressed at what the Switch can do sometimes.
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I'm not a shooter person, but putting the last path of Panic Button's Doom port up against PS4, and yeah, side by side, the Switch version is compromised. It runs half res, and it runs half frame rate. PS4 is pushing 4x the number of pixels a second! But the PS4 is also on paper 6x as powerful.

The TX1 has a flat architecture that is easy to develop for, and a far more modern CPU and GPU than the other consoles were rocking when it launched. It's a really smart design, and its big install base has given devs every incentive to squeeze everything they can out of it
 
I stated this in my gigapost several pages back, but Nintendo tends to cheap out with their hardware and this will likely be no exception. However, I believe that both them and Nvidia will make great use of the architecture like they always do.

Though I wonder if they'll run into the same issues that plagued the Switch and will have to deal with the same amount of compromises. (It'll probably be to a lesser extent than the Switch, but still).

Edit: I've had to edit this more times than I'm proud of......
 
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Goodtwin said:
MK8 really has been terrific, and the added value from the DLC has been amazing, even if some of the early courses looked like a step in the wrong direction visually. MK8 is one of the better looking games on Switch and it runs at a flawless 60fps and renders at 1080p native. It makes me giddy to think of what Nintendo will be able to do for the next Mario Kart game with the power of Drake. I do get a kick out of some of these YouTubers who think Nintendo will just try end sell MK8 Remastered on Switch Redacted. Yes MK8 has sold amazingly well with 50 million sold, but a huge portion of Switch Redacted buyers will have owned a Switch and probably MK8. How many people are going to fork out $60-70 for a 4K build of a game that was practically a launch title for Switch in 2017? I'm a big Nintendo fan, I had a Wii U and MK8, but I am not buying MK8 for a third time. Wii U ports to Switch made all the sense in the world. There were a bunch of quality games on a failed system that deserved another chance for success.

I think some people have misinterpreted the long rollout of DLC for various Switch titles in 2023 as being a sign that Nintendo has no plans for new hardware any time soon, but I believe this is actually an effort to keep their audience engaged with the Switch platform right up until the day they announce new hardware. Switch has sold 120 million units, but they don't have 120 million active players. As a generation goes on there will be players that lose interest and move on to other consoles or other forms of entertainment entirely. Finding a way to keep people engaged with their platform for the long duration is essential for continued success. Keeping as many Switch gamers engaged with MK8 will pay dividends when the next MK games launches on redacted.
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I would go way beyond that and say these DLC will be used to demonstrate the transition with said DLC dropping alongside the patch for higher resolution (and MAYBE something more for some games). Side Order, Indigo Disk, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Wave 6, hell, maybe Elden Ring's DLC, all undated, all in the nebulous near future. I can't help but think they have something in common.
 
oldpuck said:
I'm not a shooter person, but putting the last path of Panic Button's Doom port up against PS4, and yeah, side by side, the Switch version is compromised. It runs half res, and it runs half frame rate. PS4 is pushing 4x the number of pixels a second! But the PS4 is also on paper 6x as powerful.
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Sometimes we need a little perspective. 🙃

I will be very impressed by a Switch Ultra in the body of an OLED pushing out DLSS'd 4K and comparable IQ to the Series S.

Other than the Playdate, it's the only portable gaming device with native ports designed exclusively for the hardware. That confers quite the advantage.
 
End of year earnings in May.
Mario Movie's date has moved around so much.

I wonder why.

If there's a new 3D Mario in the works, why isn't the movie being used to promote it...

Unless... It will be.

If they want to talk hardware in May without having to use a code word. They need it announced BEFORE the meeting.

April... 4th? Maybe? Just in time for trailers for it and the game to screen alongside the Mario Movie?

Then maybe a bit blowout in June, once the smoke has settled from the 1-2-3 marketing bonanza of new console reveal, Mario Movie and Zelda.

Maybe.
 
Concernt said:
End of year earnings in May.
Mario Movie's date has moved around so much.

I wonder why.

If there's a new 3D Mario in the works, why isn't the movie being used to promote it...

Unless... It will be.

If they want to talk hardware in May without having to use a code word. They need it announced BEFORE the meeting.

April... 4th? Maybe? Just in time for trailers for it and the game to screen alongside the Mario Movie?

Then maybe a bit blowout in June, once the smoke has settled from the 1-2-3 marketing bonanza of new console reveal, Mario Movie and Zelda.

Maybe.
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This doesn't make a lot of sense at all.
 
Concernt said:
End of year earnings in May.
Mario Movie's date has moved around so much.

I wonder why.

If there's a new 3D Mario in the works, why isn't the movie being used to promote it...

Unless... It will be.

If they want to talk hardware in May without having to use a code word. They need it announced BEFORE the meeting.

April... 4th? Maybe? Just in time for trailers for it and the game to screen alongside the Mario Movie?

Then maybe a bit blowout in June, once the smoke has settled from the 1-2-3 marketing bonanza of new console reveal, Mario Movie and Zelda.

Maybe.
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
This doesn't make a lot of sense at all.
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Sounds crazy, but never say never 🤷‍♂️
 
Concernt said:
End of year earnings in May.
Mario Movie's date has moved around so much.

I wonder why.
Click to expand...

I can't imagine Universal - who put up most of the money for the movie - wanting to delay for any reason that doesn't affect Universal's bottom line. So I imagine it's just because they needed more time. I can't figure out where a Super Mario Brothers The Video Game: The Movie: The Video Game would have gone in the 2022 holiday calendar. Unless they were planning on dropping it in January, and put Fire Emblem there instead?
 
oldpuck said:
I can't imagine Universal - who put up most of the money for the movie - wanting to delay for any reason that doesn't affect Universal's bottom line. So I imagine it's just because they needed more time. I can't figure out where a Super Mario Brothers The Video Game: The Movie: The Video Game would have gone in the 2022 holiday calendar. Unless they were planning on dropping it in January, and put Fire Emblem there instead?
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FE Engage was supposed to be an anniversary game, so (hypothetically speaking, of course) that might actually be the case; hell, we might've gotten Engage sometime last year. (Again, hypothetically speaking)
 
0
Re: GPU clocks
I'm fairly confident that the floor is current clocks. Going lower than the clocks available now makes very little sense in the context of the SM count.
Yes, the SM count is exactly one GPC. That's the thing; the definition of GPC was changed for T234/Orin from 12 to 8 SMs, then for T239, it was reverted back to 12 SMs. If the target compute was lower than ~2.3-2.4 tflops, then it'd be more cost effective to just stick with Orin's 8 SM GPC definition.
 
Serif said:
This is what I expect from the reveal. Elden Ring, RDR2, Jedi Survivor, Resident Evil remakes, Armored Core, etc. on a sleek tablet - boom. "Yeah this shit is next-gen". Pop in some eye-searing open-world 3D Mario and hey look here's my wallet
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Elden Ring and Armored Core VI (and maybe ports of the older AC games on Switch and Drake???) on Drake is the dream. I'd be pretty happy with any current and last gen ports on Drake, but the newer crop of From Software games are the only ones I'd be pretty upset about not getting.
 
Concernt said:
End of year earnings in May.
Mario Movie's date has moved around so much.

I wonder why.

If there's a new 3D Mario in the works, why isn't the movie being used to promote it...

Unless... It will be.

If they want to talk hardware in May without having to use a code word. They need it announced BEFORE the meeting.

April... 4th? Maybe? Just in time for trailers for it and the game to screen alongside the Mario Movie?

Then maybe a bit blowout in June, once the smoke has settled from the 1-2-3 marketing bonanza of new console reveal, Mario Movie and Zelda.

Maybe.
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Nah I think they just want to figure out the best way to have a simultaneous international launch
 
oldpuck said:
I can't imagine Universal - who put up most of the money for the movie - wanting to delay for any reason that doesn't affect Universal's bottom line. So I imagine it's just because they needed more time. I can't figure out where a Super Mario Brothers The Video Game: The Movie: The Video Game would have gone in the 2022 holiday calendar. Unless they were planning on dropping it in January, and put Fire Emblem there instead?
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I can imagine lots of things.
 
Sometimes, I feel a little awkward posting on this thread when there's a lot of tech-talk being used for speculation. I often wonder if my arguments are being held together by hopes and dreams, rather than sound hypotheses and logic; maybe I'm out of my depth, here.

Sorry to vent, I just wanted to get that out there.
 
D36 said:
Sometimes, I feel a little awkward posting on this thread when there's a lot of tech-talk being used for speculation. I often wonder if my arguments are being held together by hopes and dreams, rather than sound hypotheses and logic; maybe I'm out of my depth, here.

Sorry to vent, I just wanted to get that out there.
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I'm something of a hopes & dreams guy myself
 
D36 said:
Sometimes, I feel a little awkward posting on this thread when there's a lot of tech-talk being used for speculation. I often wonder if my arguments are being held together by hopes and dreams, rather than sound hypotheses and logic; maybe I'm out of my depth, here.

Sorry to vent, I just wanted to get that out there.
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You might want to do a little bit of the reading from the OP. There are links to various key discoveries made in the thread along the way that will help you understand how we come to this particular kind of conclusion. Fast-forwarding to just the responses here towards the hot-takes from various media outlets will do you very little good.
 
SiG said:
You might want to do a little bit of the reading from the OP. There are links to various key discoveries made in the thread along the way that will help you understand how we come to this particular kind of conclusion. Fast-forwarding to just the responses here towards the hot-takes from various media outlets will do you very little good.
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Is it on the first page?
 
Kazuyamishima said:
Drake will be powerful enough to allow me to play Xenoblade in more than 540p portable finally
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You can do that today with the magic of supersampling
To break it down a little more, the "1552×880" in the raw upsampled state exceeds the maximum output resolution of the Nintendo Switch body of "1280×720", so once downsampling to the size that matches it, supersampling [※] As a result, the image quality has improved.
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🙃
 
I'm kind of worried about 3rd-party titles on Drake. There's currently a problem with 3rd-party multiplats on PS5, Xbox Series, and PC, and what is going on is that 3rd-parties are taking the approach of least resistance. In that, they aren't making use of various features on a platform because another platform doesn't have that feature in hardware. Take Mesh Shaders for instance. Drake, based on Ampere, has support for those in hardware which started with Turing. Xbox Series X and S have that in hardware too. PS5, unfortunately does not, and PC depends on the GPU. Because of this and other scenarios, devs are choosing to go with software-based solutions so all platforms have "parity", but at a cost. This is going to be an issue with Drake because it's going to be weaker in the console space, where Series S is already showing signs of struggle with a number of 3rd-parties.
 
SiG said:
Yes. It's best to scroll from the bottom of the first post upwards.
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I see the post by ILikeFeet about DLSS. I'll read through it and watch the video when I get home from work. Thanks for the help.
 
Quoted by: SiG
1
D36 said:
I see the post by ILikeFeet about DLSS. I'll read through it and watch the video when I get home from work. Thanks for the help.
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The interesting stuff starts at March 1, 2022, but it's best to read the lead-up to those events.
 
Discostew said:
I'm kind of worried about 3rd-party titles on Drake. There's currently a problem with 3rd-party multiplats on PS5, Xbox Series, and PC, and what is going on is that 3rd-parties are taking the approach of least resistance. In that, they aren't making use of various features on a platform because another platform doesn't have that feature in hardware. Take Mesh Shaders for instance. Drake, based on Ampere, has support for those in hardware which started with Turing. Xbox Series X and S have that in hardware too. PS5, unfortunately does not, and PC depends on the GPU. Because of this and other scenarios, devs are choosing to go with software-based solutions so all platforms have "parity", but at a cost. This is going to be an issue with Drake because it's going to be weaker in the console space, where Series S is already showing signs of struggle with a number of 3rd-parties.
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Mesh shaders and virtualized geometry solutions require a massive rethink of rendering functions. Mesh shaders don't even promise better performance in all cases. Same for compute solutions. Not to mention how some have found compute solutions better than mesh shaders depending on the task. It's not all "least resistance" because least resistance would just be not doing any of this
 
Serif said:
This is what I expect from the reveal. Elden Ring, RDR2, Jedi Survivor, Resident Evil remakes, Armored Core, etc. on a sleek tablet - boom. "Yeah this shit is next-gen". Pop in some eye-searing open-world 3D Mario and hey look here's my wallet
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Need a square enix alley oop too
 
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