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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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SnowydayUK said:
I posted Does anyone know how the Register my interest works on My Nintendo Store I pre- ordered a standard copy on Game Spain so I can change my version to the special edition the day came and Game Spain sent my e-mail out late but they all sold out so I registered my interest with My Nintendo Store Spain
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As i remember they send emails, but more late than the open of the new preorders.
So it's a bit useless
 
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robertman2 said:
The sustainability benefits are extremely small, if not outright nonexistant. (you can tell this by the fact no corporation tries to push digital as being greener!)
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You need to package you game card, store your game card, transport your game card, and like oldpuck said, those have indeed a lifetime inherently limited.
 
DariliumA said:
Oookay what sent people over the board? Why are we back on Holiday 2023?
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4chan japanese leaker correctly leaked Pokémon Presents 4 days in advance. Guy supposedly works in an outsourced team that is doing graphic enhancements (???) for Pokémon Scarlet and Violet. Guy came back after some days to give some other details (He said the DLC is likely to be pushed to early 2024 together with the console). Conveniently enough Grubb came and said he's hearing rumors of a new Switch for late 2023 or early 2024. This happens before the second intervention of the leaker though.

Plus some other smoke I didn't follow much.
 
DariliumA said:
Oookay what sent people over the board? Why are we back on Holiday 2023?
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Couple days ago a pokemon leaker revealed, besides leaking all the Pokemon Direct content, that they are working on the second wave of DLC for pokemon and that it is being built to take advantage of the switch successor. Said DLC is slated to come in Winter 2023 or early 2024 depending on who you ask. Since the leaker got everything else in the leak right, the chances of the successor stuff being right are high. Doesn't mean that the successor will release with the second wave of the DLC, but that it should be around there if it is being built taking it in consideration.

That alone would point out that Stuff Is Happening, but then we found out that a famous chinese leaker was permanently banned and all their threads removed. Said leaker didn't give any recent details AFAIK but in the past they made comments on production lines.

That's my understanding of the situation, feel free to correct me.
 
Bosintang said:
You need to package you game card, store your game card, transport your game card, and like oldpuck said, those have indeed a lifetime inherently limited.
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I do wonder if there is a more up-to-date analysis of the entire supply chain for physical vs digital gaming. I'd be fascinated to read it. The only thing I've really
found is here, and it's old enough that I'm sure the variables have changed considerably.

Fundamentally I have no problem with your sustainability argument, I just want receipts.

edit: here's something from 2021.
Illustrating this trade-off, as Aslan notes, isn't easy, because there are more than just the two variables. One thing is clear: essentially, buying a physical disc is almost never the most carbon-efficient way to play video games on a console (there's just one very specific case, of a 128GB game played for around 30 to 34 hours, which can be found in Figure 68 pages 250-251, if you're interested).
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Of course, the calculation changes significantly with the use of electric delivery vehicles, etc, as much of the carbon impact seems to come from the transport/shipping/delivery of the games as opposed to production of the items themselves. But still. I stand corrected.
 
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I gotta say though if I were some random 4chan guy who got access to Pokémon Presents info it would be quite funny to add some fake spice, everyone in the world with slight knowledge of the general gaming community and discourse knows how big the obsession with a new Switch is.

Plus the guy seems pretty fluent in English for someone that supposedly doesn't know the language but that might be machine translation being really good these days.
 
#team2023

Granted I've waffled to 2023 announce 2024 launch last month at the depths of the bad news "revision cacelled cycle"

As someone said though early 2024 launch is not much different from a late 2023 launch that gets delayed.
 
Concernt said:
I continue to hold the belief that as long as a game CAN run on Switch (without major reworking), it will.
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This is what I have expected for the first couple of years. It is rumored that a new 2D Metroid is under development at Mercury Steam targeting a 2025 release, so that would be another likely candidate for a late cross gen title. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo put out a few Switch 2 exclusives, but the majority will be cross gen. It will be relatively easy for developers to develop their game targeting Switch and then dial it up the new hardware.

Concernt said:
Since we seem to have evidence production lines are ready, yeah, September to November seems extremely likely.

If they have the parts, which it seems they do, the factory space, which it seems they do, no point in holding out unless they've seriously bungled the software lineup, which I doubt.
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I agree with the idea that an announcement is likely around the same time was manufacturing begins, but I think this will be an August announcement for a November launch. I just cant see them announcing before Zelda TotK, it wouldn't hurt the game sales, but there is no question it would slow down sales of the current Switch. Get past Zelda TotK, sell a ton of special edition OLED's and then gear up for the transition. Nintendo may have also pushed V2 Switch production into overdrive for a few months planning to stockpile some units so they could phase out that model over the next 12 months. Or maybe its actually the OLED model that is likely to get phased out rather quickly if Nintendo is planning to release Switch 2 at $399. Even though the Switch Lite is the least popular model, it will likely be the one Nintendo holds onto the longest to offer a low entry level price for their Switch library of games, probably drop the price to $149.

Ojoloco said:
And if I remember correctly, it is also said that Switch was delayed due to the lack of games in its launch catalog, having distributed the development kits too late.
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With Drake being as powerful as it is, developers are not going to need a ton of time to port PS4 era games. I have been bullish on the idea Nintendo doesn't want dozens of ports on launch day and would rather see a smaller launch lineup with games releasing frequently for months following launch. Nintendo can afford to be very selective with who has early access to kits, and then 6-8 months before launch start working with a wider scope of developers.
 
Apologies if this has been addressed, but are there any new updates? I'm seeing the thread moving so quickly but there are no new updates to the OP
 
Concernt said:
Given the current availability of LPDDR5 chips and the expected price range (300-500USD), 12GB of LPDDR5 seems more likely. That "Switch DLSS" dev kit was probably for the same device. It would appear a lot of the dev kit rumours were accurate, and if that's the case, that includes Devs not being told whether this is a new generation or a refresh.
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But it will be werid that devkits are there since so long time, imo only some big studios get devkits for their opinion about hardware
 
Gerald said:
But it will be werid that devkits are there since so long time, imo only some big studios get devkits for their opinion about hardware
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Lots of revisions, lots of feedback, and a LOT more developers interested than Nintendo had at the launch of Switch.
 
Goodtwin said:
This is what I have expected for the first couple of years. It is rumored that a new 2D Metroid is under development at Mercury Steam targeting a 2025 release, so that would be another likely candidate for a late cross gen title. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo put out a few Switch 2 exclusives, but the majority will be cross gen. It will be relatively easy for developers to develop their game targeting Switch and then dial it up the new hardware.
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Honestly, I have the opposite opinion. Nintendo has never been huge on cross-gen games like Sony and Microsoft have been, and IIRC most of the examples have been Zelda games (Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild, etc.) If they can release must-haves as Switch 2 exclusives, they will. I’m sure the situation will be more complicated for games already targeting current Switch, but if the GameCube-Wii transition is anything to go by they shouldn’t be too much of a hassle to move to the new system.
 
AoiHana said:
Honestly, I have the opposite opinion. Nintendo has never been huge on cross-gen games like Sony and Microsoft have been, and IIRC most of the examples have been Zelda games (Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild, etc.) If they can release must-haves as Switch 2 exclusives, they will. I’m sure the situation will be more complicated for games already targeting current Switch, but if the GameCube-Wii transition is anything to go by they shouldn’t be too much of a hassle to move to the new system.
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Things are very different now. Development cost are higher than in the past making exclusive software that will release to a userbase of a few million people is tough. For Nintendo its not as critical because many of their titles are evergreen titles that sell for the entire generation. With Switch 2 likely being backwards compatible, releasing a Switch game is releasing to the whole family of consoles rather than just to the limited Switch 2 userbase. I do think they will have a few exclusives, and maybe the cross gen period is only a year, but Switch will continue to see software support from many third parties because of the install base.
 
AoiHana said:
Honestly, I have the opposite opinion. Nintendo has never been huge on cross-gen games like Sony and Microsoft have been, and IIRC most of the examples have been Zelda games (Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild, etc.) If they can release must-haves as Switch 2 exclusives, they will. I’m sure the situation will be more complicated for games already targeting current Switch, but if the GameCube-Wii transition is anything to go by they shouldn’t be too much of a hassle to move to the new system.
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Nintendo's never done it super extensively, but there are several notable Switch+3DS and NES+SNES releases. What is quite common is for systems that remain successful to continue receiving games after their successor releases, and adding native (or semi-native) Switch 2 support to the continued Switch releases should be comparatively trivial. As a result, I think there will be few, if any true Switch 1 only releases once Switch 2 is out, and even then, the distinction might not be super clear.
 
Truno said:
Apologies if this has been addressed, but are there any new updates? I'm seeing the thread moving so quickly but there are no new updates to the OP
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No updates really, but factory uncle got banned and his threads deleted, which sorta gives some feeling of legitimacy to all he's said before, and that kinda woke the thread up a bit 😅
 
I’m not feeling any “happening” yet tbh

Not knowing Nintendo’s H2 feels pretty routine. 4chan leak is interesting but hardly conclusive. And factory uncles have always been “for entertainment purposes only”
 
karmitt said:
I’m not feeling any “happening” yet tbh

Not knowing Nintendo’s H2 feels pretty routine. 4chan leak is interesting but hardly conclusive. And factory uncles have always been “for entertainment purposes only”
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is that true? I think every spring direct except this going back to 2018 has featured games coming out outside H1 of that year, it's usually used as a platform to tease that year's big release

Not saying it has to be a new console, but they specifically decided not to talk about anything after July 2023 with the direct this year.
 
Dekuman said:
is that true? I think every spring direct except this going back to 2018 has featured games coming out outside H1 of that year, it's usually used as a platform to tease that year's big release

Not saying it has to be a new console, but they specifically decided not to talk about anything after July 2023 with the direct this year.
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Nintendo showcased new games every june up until 2021, broke that pattern and it didn’t mean anything. I‘m not saying that it isn‘t out of order that we don‘t know much about second half of 2023 but I don‘t feel like that it makes new hardware announcements more or less likely at this point in time. I mean they could easily do the exact same thing like last year. There was some backlash of hardcore fans for not having a regular direct in june, but spreading out their news over the summer seems to have worked great for them.
 
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lexony said:
Nintendo showcased new games every june up until 2021. I‘m not saying that it isn‘t out of order that we don‘t know much about second half of 2023 but I don‘t feel like that it makes new hardware announcements more or less likely at this point in time. I mean they could easily do the exact same thing like last year. There was some backlash of hardcore fans for not having a regular direct, but spreading out their news over the summer seems to have worked great for them.
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Fair point, could just be scheduling.
 
Dekuman said:
is that true? I think every spring direct except this going back to 2018 has featured games coming out outside H1 of that year, it's usually used as a platform to tease that year's big release

Not saying it has to be a new console, but they specifically decided not to talk about anything after July 2023 with the direct this year.
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Pikmin 4 in July is enough content to give them room for a June showcase that reveals August-December releases. Maybe it doesn’t align with previous years exactly, but it’s not that far off. Nintendo just shadow dropped a major game - they don’t need long marketing schedules for everything.

I’m very eager to see what they are doing for H2, just not feeling the hardware rumors yet. I was peak invested when I believed my beloved Tears had a shot at getting an upgrade at launch, but I’ve mourned and moved on. The situation just feels to me like status quo. Hardware is coming eventually, but I need more before I board the hype train again.
 
So with Nintendo saying E3 doesn't fit within their plans this year, and lets take them at their word for the moment, this would line up with the idea that they are planning to roll out new hardware later in the year, but do not wish to announce it at E3 or even before E3. If they planned to announce it before E3, it would certainly make sense to be at E3 to show off some launch titles for Switch Redacted. I don't see them skipping E3 only to announce it a few week later either. The factory leak suggest that production of OG Switch is planning to be strong up until April but then they essentially wrap up production of that model opening up room to make something else. Not sure how long it normally takes a factory to retool for a new product, but I cant see the factory sitting idle for months. In all likelihood manufacturing will have started in June or July at the latest. Its very likely for leaks to start happening often at that point. Question is does this change anything for Nintendo? Enthusiast like us will all be very aware of the new hardware prior to announcement, but your general public that makes up the majority of your customer base would still be very much in the dark. So I think an August teaser trailer goes live and then Nintendo attends Tokyo Game Show in late September and launches the new system 4-8 weeks after that.
 
AoiHana said:
Honestly, I have the opposite opinion. Nintendo has never been huge on cross-gen games like Sony and Microsoft have been, and IIRC most of the examples have been Zelda games (Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild, etc.) If they can release must-haves as Switch 2 exclusives, they will. I’m sure the situation will be more complicated for games already targeting current Switch, but if the GameCube-Wii transition is anything to go by they shouldn’t be too much of a hassle to move to the new system.
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They've done cross-gen before for handhelds - there were a bunch of Gameboy / GBC cross-gen releases when the GBC first came out, which transitioned to more GBC exclusives over time. A key barrier in the past has been changes in game format (different shaped cartridges and discs), which doesn't have to be the case this time around.
 
Honestly don't feel like there's a hype train anymore. The hype train was in effect during the days that we speculated about a H2 2022/H1 2023 release. During those days 2024 felt like such an unlikely outcome, but now that it's the realistic scenario this feels more like a waiting game than fun speculation (at least for me)
 
Q4 2023 will be surprising for me as if you going to release 6 months after Zelda may as well delay Zelda at that point no?

So I'm going to assume it's Q1 2024 with a 3D Mario launch game following by a Metroid Prime 4 release few months later for a decent 1-2 punch of heavy hitters. Then of course you have Pokémon and Zelda getting paid updates (most likely a $10 upgrade fee).
 
Random memory, I remember this Switch Lite leak from an accessory manufacturer cause I thought Nintendo would be producing a Switch mini in this sleek all black, almost metallic color.

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I actually can't remember how long before the Switch Lite release the backplate leak was.
 
kalosmani said:
Q4 2023 will be surprising for me as if you going to release 6 months after Zelda may as well delay Zelda at that point no?

So I'm going to assume it's Q1 2024 with a 3D Mario launch game following by a Metroid Prime 4 release few months later for a decent 1-2 punch of heavy hitters. Then of course you have Pokémon and Zelda getting paid updates (most likely a $10 upgrade fee).
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I use to think this as well, but not anymore. Zelda TotK is going to sell big numbers regardless and doesn't need new hardware to do so. Zelda TP and BotW were doomed to failed consoles if they didn't make them cross gen and give them a chance for success on the next consoles. Switch Redacted also doesn't need Zelda TotK, Switch has established itself as a very popular platform and will sell out for months regardless of what Nintendo pushes as launch titles. The fact that upgrade patches are looking likely, a game like Zelda TotK will be an evergreen title on Switch Redacted even though it launched on Switch in it's twilight years.
 
kalosmani said:
Q4 2023 will be surprising for me as if you going to release 6 months after Zelda may as well delay Zelda at that point no?

So I'm going to assume it's Q1 2024 with a 3D Mario launch game following by a Metroid Prime 4 release few months later for a decent 1-2 punch of heavy hitters. Then of course you have Pokémon and Zelda getting paid updates (most likely a $10 upgrade fee).
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When I expressed the same, other posters have very sensibly pointed out that Zelda likely was never planned for the launch of the system. It’s original launch was 2022, and it’s delay was likely just that - a typical software delay. Not a delay to meet new hardware timelines.

We might have wanted it, but Nintendo probably saw more value in using it to keep the current generation alive than using it for launch of the new one. I think it’s safe to assume they’ve always had other launch titles in mind. If there’s any truth to the Pokémon graphics patch being for new hardware, perhaps that’s part of their strategy to migrate players (and attract new ones) on some of these late releases, dropping simultaneous DLC and visual improvements.
 
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