• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

You're approaching this subject from a strange angle that's sort of adjacent to actual concerns but oversimplified to the point where it's really warping your conclusions, which is what people are reacting to. There's no simple formula of hardware power = required development resources where more powerful hardware is just a flat multiplier to the equation. Certain parts of the asset production pipeline may sort of approximate that, but especially as the hardware gets more powerful, it's more about the desired fidelity than the hardware power itself. Art direction is a more important factor to how a game looks than raw technical merits or how much money was spent on making it.

Also there's just a lot of factors that go into how easy hardware is to develop for. The PS3 has a very exotic CPU designed around a really difficult to use computing paradigm that required a lot of extra work just to get decent results out of it. Sony's developers had to put ridiculous amounts of effort into optimization for it because they basically didn't have any other choice. On the other hand, Drake is an evolution of the fairly standard hardware that Nintendo has already been working with for years now. Everything Nintendo's doing now will translate over fine, and some of the new tricks the hardware has up its sleeve could even ultimately make their job easier for exclusive games, like with RT.

It's debatable if Xenoblade or Luigi's mansion would even be (by Nintendo standards) "AAA" games. A lot of what those do well probably comes down more to their respective studios' strengths than what sort of budget they're getting from Nintendo.
Whatever people are reacting to... I don't really care tbh, because the desired fidelity is literally part of what I was talking about. If i'm "simplifying" it is because figuring that out doesn't need a 300 page thesis or a bible full of statements, I'd just rather explain the main point right away as people here are supposed to know what I mean as a whole.

Regarding the PS3 part, I wasn't even talking about the difficulty to develop for but why some of the exclusives on it still give most Nintendo games a run for their money in the technical side, it was horribly difficult for sure... But that's just testament of Sony development prowess more than anything else, the PS3's CPU did carry most of them when used properly (including TLOU, where you can even find interviews online of how it made it possible), that's all I meant regarding the PS3. In the actual Drake part, I don't trust most of their studios to squeeze this hardware properly for a relatively long time, which is exactly what many started admitting here after I talked about it, while under my label I had to explain things with drawings for some mysterious reasons.
 
Last edited:
As promised:






Obviously took these while doing the Gerudo section, but I'm happy to jump to any area to take screens if people are curious.
I've got a nice PC nowadays, gotta give this a try :O .

It's another way in which BotW is like Galaxy I guess: both look mind-blowing with a simple resolution bump.
 
I have to say playing Super Mario Galaxy on Switch, it didn't feel out of place at all. It felt crisp and sharp.
I kind of expect the next generation to do much the same, with (most) evergreen titles getting simple resolution bump patches. Any added features will probably also come downstream to Nintendo Switch (Gen 1). For instance, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's feature updates alongside the waves of Booster Courses come to every copy. I expect much the same to happen if they drop any feature improvements with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's next gen patch.
 
That title is colorful

TSMC 3nm FinFlex + Self-Aligned Contacts, Intel EMIB 3 + Foveros Direct, AMD Yield Issues, IBM Vertical Transport FET (VTFET) + RU Interconnects, CFET, Sequential Stacking, Samsung Yield, and more​


Hum... I know some of these words.
 
Whatever people are reacting to... I don't really care tbh, because the desired fidelity is literally part of what I was talking about. If i'm "simplifying" it is because figuring that out doesn't need a 300 page thesis or a bible full of statements, I'd just rather explain the main point right away as people here are supposed to know what I mean as a whole.

Regarding the PS3 part, I wasn't even talking about the difficulty to develop for but why some of the exclusives on it still give most Nintendo games a run for their money in the technical side, it was horribly difficult for sure... But that's just testament of Sony development prowess more than anything else, the PS3's CPU did carry most of them when used properly (including TLOU, where you can even find interviews online of how it made it possible), that's all I meant regarding the PS3. In the actual Drake part, I don't trust most of their studios to squeeze this hardware properly for a relatively long time, which is exactly what many started admitting here after I talked about it, while under my label I had to explain things with drawings for some mysterious reasons.
after reading most of your comments I think I understand what you're saying.
I do think Mario Kart 8 squeezed everything it could out of the Wii U and was one of the only games that looked like it was part of that PS4 Xbone generation.
I will say I don't doubt Nintendo's dev teams and their technical prowess. There's going to be immediate benefits to their teams by having more powerful hardware. (Textures/shaders won't have to be reduced so much and compressed as much for one) and the immediate bump in resolution.
I don't think this is a Game Freak case ... where... I just don't think they have what it takes technically. Nintendo's teams are very capable... I don't think they target TLOU RDR2 type graphics because they're incapable of doing so... I really think they just don't want to.
Some of their studios if given a 16 core CPU and a 4090 based machine will continue to make games that look like Switch Sports because that's their target they aim for.
I've been hoping they sort of up their efforts on some of these B games like the mario themed sports games and other spinoffs. Mario Party Superstars and such.
I think that's just the reality of it. I do wish their teams would share work and techniques across projects more often. Not that every game needs to be the same but it feels like each team creates unique features that should be a main tool set across all of their projects and yet they don't. I don't think it's related to talent or hardware... well it's more like choices based on target hardware and finalized by budget. Which if given more power more money and more time I think they could do anything.
 
The more numbers we see for this year so far, the less I believe that report about Nintendo increasing/maintaining production for the Switch next FY. Seems to be completely at odds with what is actually going on.
 
The more numbers we see for this year so far, the less I believe that report about Nintendo increasing/maintaining production for the Switch next FY. Seems to be completely at odds with what is actually going on.
Increasing production from some suppliers doesn't necessarily mean increasing production for the Switch. That's the kind of unsubstantiated leap Mochizuki often makes IMO.
 
I have to say playing Super Mario Galaxy on Switch, it didn't feel out of place at all. It felt crisp and sharp.
Galaxy in HD gives Odyssey a run for its money visually. What they crafted on Wii was extraordinary, one of the best example of what a game could do on Wii when fully leveraging the TEV unit to create custom shaders. The texture scrolling also worked extremely well. The scale of Galaxy compared to Odyssey is night and day, but ignoring that fact, its easy to look at Galaxy on Switch and think it looks as good or better than Odyssey.

The more numbers we see for this year so far, the less I believe that report about Nintendo increasing/maintaining production for the Switch next FY. Seems to be completely at odds with what is actually going on.
Nintendo will roll out their official forecast in April for the upcoming fiscal year. If suppliers are hearing about an increase in production, this would have to be enough of an increase make it worth mentioning. A few percentage points above the previous year would basically be considered a flat year over year expectation for orders. If Nintendo were playing orders that exceed a 10% increase year over year, that's enough to raise some eyebrows. A little over two months from now this will all be cleared up.
 
I would not rule out the Bloomberg and Nikkei reports but there are perfectly valid reasons for both the reports and Switch continuing to decline being true
 
0
this thread kinda died once the wind was let out the sails of May. Theres still a few believers in here but i think most of have people in here have excepted defeat.
This Is a speculation thread , it will pick up if there are new things to talk about

I personally do not get overly attached on specific dates
 
Artistically, but none are anything out of the ordinary in the technical side. No way you can't compare them with Zelda/Xenoblade or a Galaxy on Wii hardware, they're ages ahead to the point I don't even consider them worth mentioning in this regard.

Disagree, 3D World's lighting is incredible (obviously this is helped a lot by the limited camera angles)

Mario Kart 8 is also the best looking game on WiiU.
 
this thread kinda died once the wind was let out the sails of May. Theres still a few believers in here but i think most of have people in here have excepted defeat.
It's hard to continue to post about the switch 2 when we haven't gotten a lot of new relevant information. The information we did receive did turn a lot of people off based on the speculated release time frame...until there is new information that proves otherwise, I just think people are taking a break from the thread.
 
As promised:






Obviously took these while doing the Gerudo section, but I'm happy to jump to any area to take screens if people are curious.
Textures still suck but it is certainly clean and pretty.
 
0
Switch 2 will definitely be around 399 imo. It'll be Nintendo's most expensive console yet, but still in the range that kids can reasonably get it from their parents.
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.
 
Not to be that guy but "accepted"
No, they meant excepted. Most have excepted defeat, which means they believe defeat to not be included in the category of prospective outcomes. Thus, proving that the majority believe that the Switch 2 is coming out in May, QED.

That's how you play this game, yes?
 
We'll have more to talk about if there is indeed a direct next week. Either way we also get financial results briefing so we'll have plenty to overanalyze.
 
A direct next week before or right around financial briefing could also hint at possibility something gets announced at either event and Nintendo not wanting to leave their audiences financial and gamer hanging with news the other group doesn't get at around the same time.

Worth thinking about. Of course, right now the direct date is just a rumor and should be treated as such.
 
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.
I agree generally. I dont know the likely BOM of a Switch 2, but without the ability to lower the current price of the current Switch, I wonder I Nintendo would be inclined to go for more RAM or storage to provide some value and separation in pricing.

The only way I could see Nintendo's calculus changing is if their monthly Switch online subscription service offers enough ongoing revenue to justify trying to go with lower pricing to increase overall revenue, the way Gamepass certainly seems to be driving Microsoft and to a similar extend Sony with PS+. A leak of sorts suggested revenue of almost $1B; however, I dont know if it was accurate or what that means in terms of profit for Switch Online.

Still, I dont know if Nintendo thinks (or the numbers would show) a lower priced Switch would drive additional subscribers since more price conscious users would also be less likely to use a subscription.
 
Quoted by: 10k
1
Although there's so much interesting topics and information in the SemiAnalysis article, I'm only going to quote a section from the SemiAnalysis article that's likely the most relevant with respect to Nintendo's new hardware.

Qualcomm & Samsung DTCO - Paper 27.4​

At IEDM, Qualcomm and Samsung also talked about the DTCO used with the Snapdragon 888 on Samsung's 5LPE node. Qualcomm states that the smallest fin pitch (FP), CGP, metal pitches, and SRAM bitcells were used to achieve a 25% shrink over 7LPP. These changes can be seen in the Ultra High-Density library of 5LPE. However, these shrinks also came with increased risks to the process.

From the start to initial production, Samsung reduced defects by 60% and further reduced this to 2% of the baseline by high-volume manufacturing. 5LPE also experienced excellent yield improvement, faster than 10LPE and 7LPP. Part of this is also due to 5LPE being an incremental improvement over 7LPP.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22a8a93d-3df9-421a-9a27-c404d3002380_806x573.png


Qualcomm and Samsung also worked together with DTCO to improve yield greatly, achieving 2.5x lower yield loss for operations at low voltages, which is the primary use case of mobile SoCs. They also reduced the number of defective devices by 9x, which is very significant.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda005c92-2af3-4fd5-8ff5-407d49ce3c1e_600x500.png


Through continued DTCO, Qualcomm and Samsung also reduced the CPU power draw by 7% and total power by 3%. As process node scaling slows, DTCO will become more and more important to achieving desirable characteristics for chips.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd18ba2d6-016e-4ac0-a533-26659e3228e5_707x522.png


Samsung also compared their 1st generation node, 5LPE, to their 2nd generation node, 5LPP. They showed it achieved a 5% higher performance at the same power. 5LPP is also used in the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, although marketed under the name of 4LPX.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe0ca2b38-58f9-4b48-be7c-843c2c97af62_652x536.png
 
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.
This was never clear. But we know Reggie did say they were profitable with at least 1 game sold (usually Nintendo 1st party) with iirc the Wii U or 3DS (im at work and can't quickly look it up) so I would guess that generation of Nintendo hardware wasn't exactly break even.

And profitability is always marred by unclear phrasing and perspective. Is it just cost to manufacture or does it include marketing/retailer/distribution cost. does the price cover all that at launch? Not clear. If the original Switch BOM teardown of $250 was true, then launch units going for $299 very likely didn't cover every cost. As those $250 BOM needed to be assembled in a factory first before you even consider retailer margins, shipping. packaging.


edit: just googled, it was the Wii U
 
Last edited:
I agree generally. I dont know the likely BOM of a Switch 2, but without the ability to lower the current price of the current Switch, I wonder I Nintendo would be inclined to go for more RAM or storage to provide some value and separation in pricing.

The only way I could see Nintendo's calculus changing is if their monthly Switch online subscription service offers enough ongoing revenue to justify trying to go with lower pricing to increase overall revenue, the way Gamepass certainly seems to be driving Microsoft and to a similar extend Sony with PS+. A leak of sorts suggested revenue of almost $1B; however, I dont know if it was accurate or what that means in terms of profit for Switch Online.

Still, I dont know if Nintendo thinks (or the numbers would show) a lower priced Switch would drive additional subscribers since more price conscious users would also be less likely to use a subscription.
I'd imagine the basic tier of NSO is what 80% or more of the install base is subbed too, and I can't see $20 a year being enough to offset hardware losses.

Game Pass isn't an equivalent cause it's $9.99 for the basic sub. Even XBL Gold is $5 a month and PSN is I think $10 a month now?
 
Just thinking. It seemed like pre-"cancellation" reports, the consensus here was that Nintendo would continue to produce at most 2 of the OLED/v2/Lite models (the exact scenario was up for discussion) - or put another way, they would discontinue at least 1 of them. But now, since Nintendo has allegedly decided to do a clean generational break (as opposed to a premium revision) with their next hardware, could they have decided to discontinue all 3?

Note: this does not mean stop supporting G1 with games and updates. There would still be the cross-gen period that pretty much everyone agrees is very likely to occur.

It would kind of jive with the reports of increased production. They can pump out OLEDs/v2s/Lites and warehouse them (which yes, would cost $), but they'd switch over all the lines to pump out the new Drake (which would save $). It would shore up the initial supply at release.

Tricky thing is would Nintendo abandon the lower priced model - though I suppose they did pretty ok with just the Switch alone for the 30 months before the Lite came out. Maybe they only stockpile the OLED and lower the price once Drake is announced. Who knows, it's probably dumb. They'd have to be pretty confident there wouldn't be any component shortages.
 
this thread kinda died once the wind was let out the sails of May. Theres still a few believers in here but i think most of the people in here have excepted accepted defeat.
I don't think it's so much wind getting let out, but just that there isn't much to talk about. Thanks to the Nvidia hack, we know a lot about the hardware, and what we don't know has been discussed to hell and back. A lot of the discussion at this point comes down to release timing/marketing, which imo is the least interesting and important part of any product launch.
 
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.

Maybe the console will be priced $300 - $350 and is not anywhere near as powerfull as people are hoping for.
 
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.
If it were to come out this year, I'd agree, but the later after 2023 it arrives, the greater the chances that it will be no more than $399 (since I don't believe Nintendo will keep improving it beyond the specs we know - what you see now is what you'll get whenever it comes out, 2023, 2024 or 2025...).
 
I'd imagine the basic tier of NSO is what 80% or more of the install base is subbed too, and I can't see $20 a year being enough to offset hardware losses.

Game Pass isn't an equivalent cause it's $9.99 for the basic sub. Even XBL Gold is $5 a month and PSN is I think $10 a month now?
I agree it doesn't seem like it should drive massive revenue, though Nintendo seems to be getting $1B of revenue for Switch Online could potentially give Nintendo some wiggle room should it wish to use it in that manner.

$1B in revenue at say a 40% margin, gives Nintendo $400M of profit yearly that could be invested elsewhere. Of course, any potential hardware subsidy would have to drive additional subscriptions or retentions and Im not convinced it would work. But it is fun to consider.
 
0
NSO isn't about subsidizing hardware losses , it's a revenue stream and profit centre for them and the other 2 manufacturers. It's also an argument for BC and a clean accounts migration process to the succ
 
No, they meant excepted. Most have excepted defeat, which means they believe defeat to not be included in the category of prospective outcomes. Thus, proving that the majority believe that the Switch 2 is coming out in May, QED.

That's how you play this game, yes?
Nope, the guy said he messed up
 
I expect this thing to be $399 and my reasoning is that the PS5 digital, 64GB Steam Deck and Series S (yes S not X) will put a lot of pressure on Nintendo. That’s me expecting it this year still. If it’s next year holidays? I don’t see how you can’t possibly try for $350 if you’re Nintendo. 2024 holiday bundle deals on PS5 slim sku, series S and potentially steam deck make $399 that much harder imo. Especially if the current circumstances in the market linger into next year.
 
Alright I'm going to have to beg people's patience with this post, but I want to point out a few things that have happened recently:

Nintendo.ie went live, partially.
The Nintendo Switch Voucher deal has returned to North America.
Doug Bowser has been in Japan.
Jensen has allegedly been in Japan.
The Nintendo eShop has received several updates, including a new search page just recently.
Nintendo Canada has said outright that fixes for Scarlet and Violet performance issues are to be distributed.
The Nintendo Switch Online website for North America has been updated and reformatted with more room for content.
Nintendo has introduced "digital bundles" of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Animal Crossing New Horizons with DLC included.

Disconnected, perhaps. There's definitely not much of a pattern here other than Nintendo, right now, is shaking things up. They're making major changes to their digital business and website. The last time things were "happening" like this was around the Nintendo Switch launch.

I'm not saying this confirms or de-confirms anything, but the sheer amount of changes and statements they're making lately keep me thinking: what are they hiding? What's the reason behind this?
 
Last edited:
Alright I'm going to have to beg people's patience with this post, but I want to point out a few things that have happened recently:

Nintendo.ie went live, partially.
The Nintendo Switch Voucher deal has returned to North America.
Doug Bowser has been in Japan.
Jensen has allegedly been in Japan.
The Nintendo eShop has received several updates, including a new search page just recently.
Nintendo Canada has said outright that fixed for Scarlet and Violet performance issues are to be distributed.
The Nintendo Switch Online website for North America has been updated and reformatted with more room for content.
Nintendo has introduced "digital bundles" of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Animal Crossing New Horizons with DLC included.

Disconnected, perhaps. There's definitely not much of a pattern here other than Nintendo, right now, is shaking things up. They're making major changes to their digital business and website. The last time things were "happening" like this was around the Nintendo Switch launch.

I'm not saying this confirms or de-confirms anything, but the sheer amount of changes and statements they're making lately keep me thinking: what are they hiding? What's the reason behind this?
I am glad Nintendo has been partially shaking things up as of recently. It gets people out of their comfort zone.
 
Whatever people are reacting to... I don't really care tbh, because the desired fidelity is literally part of what I was talking about. If i'm "simplifying" it is because figuring that out doesn't need a 300 page thesis or a bible full of statements, I'd just rather explain the main point right away as people here are supposed to know what I mean as a whole.

Regarding the PS3 part, I wasn't even talking about the difficulty to develop for but why some of the exclusives on it still give most Nintendo games a run for their money in the technical side, it was horribly difficult for sure... But that's just testament of Sony development prowess more than anything else, the PS3's CPU did carry most of them when used properly (including TLOU, where you can even find interviews online of how it made it possible), that's all I meant regarding the PS3. In the actual Drake part, I don't trust most of their studios to squeeze this hardware properly for a relatively long time, which is exactly what many started admitting here after I talked about it, while under my label I had to explain things with drawings for some mysterious reasons.
Perhaps I'm not explaining myself clearly enough. While Nintendo's budgets will probably overall trend upwards for Drake exclusives, the idea that BotW would be the new floor, as you said before, is unfounded, and I think really misunderstands not only the factors at play but the strategic differences between how Nintendo and Sony manage their resources. Nintendo publishes a much wider variety of games at a wider variety of budgets, and what's needed to make a game look "good" for the hardware is going to vary wildly. They're not like Sony who pours such an ungodly amount of resources into a small number of hyper-detailed projects that they're starting to have to sell them again on PC to make back their investment.

I'm not sure the "squeezing" metaphor is something that's really helpful here, because that's something that only comes into play as you start scraping up against the hardware's limits and is less necessary the more powerful and more developer-friendly the hardware is.
 

I’ll use any mental gymnastics needed to think that this has something to do with a hardware announcement.
It's a big reach. Why would a hardware announcement mean they wouldn't attend E3? If the announcement came before, the hardware could be at E3. If the announcement came after, then it shouldn't have any bearing on E3 at all (and wouldn't fit with Kit's hunch that we'll find out the whole story soon).

I just posted it here because, assuming Kit is correct on whatever other reason Nintendo may have, it knocks down the flimsy justification that Nintendo's alleged release schedule means anything regarding the eventual timeline for new hardware.

It is fun to wildly speculate on what kind of pipe dream announcements could justify Nintendo skipping E3, though.
 

I’ll use any mental gymnastics needed to think that this has something to do with a hardware announcement.

Error​

Sorry, there was an error on the page. Please try again later.

~ Nintendo Life

Nintendo Ninjas ?


I also do not understand how missing E3 correlates to there being hardware or not.

Nintendo had a fine E3 in 2017 when the Switch was already out.
Well Sony/Microsoft are also skipping it looks like so they are not the odd person out.
That said, Kit's comments could be more about what gets announced before E3 that would make it apparent an E3 show doesn't make sense.

Say if hardware is announced with a reveal in the fall, then that's where the show is. They could still have a direct /mini direct around summer like 2022 where there was no E3 and we just got a big partner showcase direct.
 
I don't see any scenario where Nintendo sells hardware at a loss. I look at the specs and potential node this item is going to be fabricated on, and I don't see the first digit of the Switch 2's price being under a 4.

Honestly, I see a higher chance of seeing a $500 Switch 2 than a $400 Switch 2. But I believe the entry model will be $449.
I’m struggling to understand what part is is that people think will cause this massive jump over equivalent part costs in 2017 when Switch’s MSRP was established.
 
I’m struggling to understand what part is is that people think will cause this massive jump over equivalent part costs in 2017 when Switch’s MSRP was established.
They're probably thinking of the apparent 'deal' Nintendo got to get the tegra SoC, but that deal ended long ago and Switch didn't go up in price.
If what @Thraktor (i think) said earlier about oversupply on chips coming into effect, component costs would also be coming down, not going up.
 
I also do not understand how missing E3 correlates to there being hardware or not.

Nintendo had a fine E3 in 2017 when the Switch was already out.
I guess the possibility would be that they would be having some kind of event later in the year ala the Switch October 2016 reveal, meanwhile since Zelda is releasing before E3, there isn't any other reason to have an E3 presence.
 
I could be wrong, but I think the classic way to count FLOPS is cores * frequency * 2.
And the result would be Single-precision.
The classic way is just ALUs*Frequency.

FLOPS=Floating Point Operations Per Second. A FLOP is performed by an ALU. Frequency is a measure of how many times the ALU runs it's execution cycle per second. So FLOPS is, obviously, The number of ALUs you have * How many times they can do an operation per second.

In the past, ALUs did one Instruction Per Cycle, but now they can run more. That's the 2 that we use for Nvidia now, but it's been 1 in the past.


This method of averaging between FP32 and FP16 seems pretty wrong to me too to be honest.
It's only useful in this specific case. If I said that Nvidia was 1.3x as performant per-FLOP than AMD, no one would blink. But when I did the benchmarks (I included only one card in my original post) I found that the more predictive strategy was to look at the FP16/FP32 numbers. It comes out to about 1.3 in the end anyway, but only if you compare cards that are close to each other in power. The FLOP averaging is more predicative across big scales

This matters because we can't do apples-to-apples comparisons between consoles isn't possible because they're not open platforms. And if Xbox/Playstation GPU architecture has changes over the desktop versions, we want a way to predict the performance qualities.

If Series S is an 8 TFLOP machine on FP16 operations - especially if games are optimized to use it, and especially if those optimizations are common on the other two consoles - then that matters because it makes it hard to ever get there with Desktop Ampere, no matter how close the FP32 TFLOP number is.

Which leads me, actually, to a second topic I've been looking at - how many tensor cores Drake might have. We know that Orin runs double rate tensor cores, but while doing some research* I discovered it actually has 8 times the tensor performance of desktop Ampere. Not only does Orin run double rate tensor, it also has 4 times as many per SM.

This matters because the DLSS numbers of Drake actually aren't all that great if it's just desktop Ampere. But Nvidia could decide to stick more Tensor cores in there, which would, in turn, up the FP16 speed on the device, and again close the gap.

*I say research, to be clear, this is for work. We're expanding the GPU cluster at my office, and performance measuring of GPUs - at least, datacenter GPUs - is now my job. Which is handy because I didn't actually know anything about modern GPUs till I started hanging around this forum.
 
They're probably thinking of the apparent 'deal' Nintendo got to get the tegra SoC, but that deal ended long ago and Switch didn't go up in price.
If what @Thraktor (i think) said earlier about oversupply on chips coming into effect, component costs would also be coming down, not going up.
Some of them already are. NAND flash prices have been down significantly and persistently since 2019. Retail RAM prices seem to indicate a mild cost decrease compared to what was new tech in 2017, as well.
And with the SoC, despite its fancy new features and Thraktor’s position of an incoming production swell causing oversupply, has most of its cost associated with the price of a silicon wafer and how many usable chips you can squeeze out of production to begin with (which, for the same size of wafer, a smaller process node should mean more or equal chips per production run to begin with), which should remain favourable to Nintendo if Nvidia can bin and re-use partly-faulty chips.

EDIT: Plus, wasn’t that “deal” on the TX1 mostly supposition anyways?
 
Last edited:
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom