StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Machrider]

I suspect a lot of Nintendo's early games for the next Switch will basically looking like current Switch games on steroids with higher resolution + frame rate + better image quality and higher poly counts. Think they will pass on things like ray tracing. It may be a while before you see Switch 2 games from them that are on par with this.

That said there are plenty of 3rd party games that could be ported to a Switch 2, FF7 Remake itself included. There's a ton of PS4-era content that likely devs will want to port. So I think the graphics issue will kind of work itself out just fine, there will be plenty of titles that do take advantage of the hardware as likely a lot of 3rd parties will want their content on the system given the success of the OG Switch.

 

[LinkURL]

I suspect a lot of Nintendo's early games for the next Switch will basically looking like current Switch games on steroids with higher resolution + frame rate + better image quality and higher poly counts. Think they will pass on things like ray tracing. It may be a while before you see Switch 2 games from them that are on par with this.

That said there are plenty of 3rd party games that could be ported to a Switch 2, FF7 Remake itself included. There's a ton of PS4-era content that likely devs will want to port. So I think the graphics issue will kind of work itself out just fine, there will be plenty of titles that do take advantage of the hardware as likely a lot of 3rd parties will want their content on the system given the success of the OG Switch.

I also believe that the first Nintendo games will be like Switch 1 on steroids, 4K@60, HDR, better LOD, more polygons, better textures, more effects, more foliage, better lighting, etc.
However, I believe they will be by far the studio that will use raytracing the most, I have a feeling that RT + Cell Shading will be spectacular and they will use it as much as possible.

 

[NineTailSage]

When the Switch came out, 16nm, 14nm, and 10nm nodes were available. iPhone 7 came out the previous year, and was on 16nm, Snapdragon 820 series were on 14nm, and the 830 on 10nm launched in 2016. Now all the flagship devices are on 5nm, because there really anywhere else to go, and the costs of those devices is more than inflation over the intervening years.

5nm might be as old as 22nm was, but it is much closer to the edge and a significantly more in demand node than 20nm was. I'm sure that TSMC will keep 5nm competitive on cost, but that doesn't mean as cheap as 8nm, now.

I'm only arguing for the launch price of the device - or not even the price, the cost. If Nintendo forsees a rapid drop in 5nm pricing, it might make sense to launch at a small loss, and maintain prices, as is their tendency. But I have seen nothing to convince me that Nintendo can get 5nm Drake at launch for the same price they got 20nm TX1.

I think your point is valid about where 5nm stands in this current marketplace, but most of this is due to delays in advancing architectures from both TSMC and Samsung Foundries roadmap. Thraktor's point still stands as well that 5nm is a pretty mature node in comparison to where 20nm was at the time of the launch of Switch.

In addition I don't believe anyone here is thinking that Nintendo will price this new device anywhere close to Switch's launch price, as most are anticipating it to be $400-450(depending on how its spec'd out).

 

[Serif]

Isn't that FF7 screenshot a cinematic? FF7R is a good looking game but it might be more fair to use an in-game shot.

With respect to cinematics, I think games like Luigi's Mansion 3 are up there. Not =, but ≈

 

[RailWays]

Spaceworld returns

Spoiler

If only...

 

[Machrider]

Isn't that FF7 screenshot a cinematic? FF7R is a good looking game but it might be more fair to use an in-game shot.

With respect to cinematics, I think games like Luigi's Mansion 3 are up there. Not =, but ≈

Think even this is real time

But this game also probably has a budget the probably dwarfs any Nintendo game outside of maybe BOTW/TOTK.

I think Nintendo will have some very nice looking games because the art style they prefer is going to simply be something a PS4-tier chip (even) can slice through like a knife through hot butter.

I wouldn't expect Nintendo to come out of the gates of next-gen with internally made games that immediately stack up next to games like FF7 Remake, Spider-Man: Miles Morales PS4, Red Dead Redemption 2, etc. though. It will probably take them a few years to ease into that.

It's fine though, there will be plenty of 3rd party games including perhaps games like FF7 Remake, RDR2, Resident Evil 4 Remake, Star Wars: Jedi Survivor, latest Call of Duty, etc. etc. that I could see making their way to Switch 2, maybe even some of them in the launch window.

 

[Concernt]

Spaceworld returns

Spoiler

If only...

Super Nintendo Switch Showcase 1 and 2 on February 9th and June 13th.

 

[karmitt]

I suspect a lot of Nintendo's early games for the next Switch will basically looking like current Switch games on steroids with higher resolution + frame rate + better image quality and higher poly counts. Think they will pass on things like ray tracing. It may be a while before you see Switch 2 games from them that are on par with this.

That said there are plenty of 3rd party games that could be ported to a Switch 2, FF7 Remake itself included. There's a ton of PS4-era content that likely devs will want to port. So I think the graphics issue will kind of work itself out just fine, there will be plenty of titles that do take advantage of the hardware as likely a lot of 3rd parties will want their content on the system given the success of the OG Switch.

I mean just using your example, I don't personally think there are that many games on any systems that impress me the way FFVII Remake did.

Nintendo content will impress in its own way, but their tendency to lean towards more stylized looks means some will be waiting forever before they see 'parity'. Monolithsoft content and future Zelda titles will probably be more advanced in their own ways, but I'd see them continuing to focus cell-shaded characters and massive explorable landscapes, versus the realistic models and tight-knit industrial setting of FFVIIR.

 

[Machrider]

I mean just using your example, I don't personally think there are that many games on any systems that impress me the way FFVII Remake did.

Nintendo content will impress in its own way, but their tendency to lean towards more stylized looks means some will be waiting forever before they see 'parity'. Monolithsoft content and future Zelda titles will probably be more advanced in their own ways, but I'd see them continuing to focus cell-shaded characters and massive explorable landscapes, versus the realistic models and tight-knit industrial setting of FFVIIR.

Honestly I think Nintendo for their own purposes will be happy with a say 2.5 TFLOP machine (docked) for a long, long, long time.

They will likely hit budget restraints before they hit technical restraints, like yes you could make a Xenoblade or Metroid game that is visually on par with a FF7R or Horizon Forbidden West ... but I doubt Nintendo would even want to give those games the budget they would need since the sales roof of those IP isn't probably high enough to justify the cost.

But a Mario 3D game or a Mario Kart even .... ooooh baby, a 2.5 TFLOP Nvidia Orin chip with DLSS is gonna give Nintendo character models that probably are hard to differniate from their CG renders. You could definitely have a Mario Kart game that looks very close to this render

 

[Discostew]

Isn't that FF7 screenshot a cinematic? FF7R is a good looking game but it might be more fair to use an in-game shot.

With respect to cinematics, I think games like Luigi's Mansion 3 are up there. Not =, but ≈

That's the thing with cinematics vs gameplay. Cinematics follow a script that they don't deviate from, so the devs can tailor it to show the best quality on-screen. Gameplay is not scripted, so devs use lower quality so they have a buffer in case the scene gets too intense.

 

[robertman2]

I would actually suggest that the studios held up here, Santa Monica and Naughty Dog have moved on to more photorealistic, “cinematic” production, often sacrificing 60FPS for it, and their fanbases have lapped it up. That’s OK, they’ve found what works for them. But beyond the perceived “visual spectacle”, the gameplay hasn’t advanced in meaningful ways, and the stage design has played catch-up with Nintendo on occasions - God Of War: Ragnorok has some of the hand-holding criticisms that LOZ: Skyward Sword had in 2011, but nobody talks about it because its flaws are conveniently forgotten or hidden behind “Oh, but the graphics!!”, while its 2018 predecessor adopts much of the lock-and-key design of pre-Breath Of The Wild LOZ. Speaking of BOTW, that game is considered revolutionary, and it did “realism” better than your favourite AAAA titles. Horizon, another game which was held up on a pedestal for some reason here, but found itself blown out of the water when it came to reviews, awards, and gameplay. Flames actually go out in BOTW’s water, whereas they do their best impersonation of Jesus upon the water’s surface in this “peak PS4-tier” title. Arrows don’t disappear into space, and you can pick them up from where they landed in the distance. NPCs actually react when you swing weapons at them… and let’s not forget that BOTW, at its core, is a Wii U title. You know what else was a Wii U title? Xenoblade Chronicles X - That game doesn’t get the credit it deserves, especially as an ambitious open-world title.

I would encourage you to look at Little Big Planet 3, and come back and tell us all with a straight face that this game was orders of magnitude more than Yoshi’s Woolly World (a game which managed 60FPS unlike the PS4 version of that cross-gen game). But perhaps the wildness of this assertion that Nintendo is “so far behind” can be illustrated best by the near decade-old Super Mario 3D World, also a Wii U title, and one which didn’t get the respect it deserved upon its reveal - Sackboy and Astrobot on PS4/5 were a pair of cat power-ups and some cherries short of flattery through imitation and apparent influence. NONE of those titles show anything more than the Wii U title, nothing that’s meaningful, anyway. NONE have 4-player modes to match it, and BOTH are examples of what it starts to look like when you DON’T sacrifice 60FPS for “spectacle”. There has always been a tendency to overshoot what PS/XBox do, and lowball Nintendo in the process, but I’ll never see it for that silliness.

Same vibes as those dumb console warrior posts comparing Halo and God of War because the former has smashable fruit or whatever lmao

 

[davec00ke]

In addition I don't believe anyone here is thinking that Nintendo will price this new device anywhere close to Switch's launch price, as most are anticipating it to be $400-450(depending on how its spec'd out).

The problem I keep pointing out to people who say the next Switch will be priced between $400 - $500 is that days of being able to cut console prices are over. Nintendo will not want to be lumbered selling a console at that price the same way Xbox did not want to and made the Series S so they could have a console hit the mass market price of $299.

 

[Look over there]

I'm not actually sure off hand. Just with RAM densities over the last 6 years, I assume 8GB costs about what the Switch's 4GB's cost, but not sure what the added cost might be for 2 6GB modules. If @Look over there has some info, I'll add it.

Unfortunately, I don't have much to offer on price. @Terrell might know more?
I'm doing some searching around to see what I can find from TechInsights teardown articles that are freely available, but I'm not getting a whole lot in direct comparisons (not only in ~size and type, but also time).
https://www.techinsights.com/blog/oneplus-2-teardown - OnePlus 2, a device released in July 2015. Its 4 GB LPDDR4 ram is estimated to cost $31. Hmm, $25.5 for its non-volatile memory (storage I take it). That should be 64 GB eMMC. Although when one scrolls down further to see the OnePlus 2 vs Samsung Galaxy Note 5 comparison, the storage drops to $13, oookay. The Galaxy Note 5's eUFS 2.0 storage is also $13; that's either 32 or 64 GB.

Incidentally...

Samsung Galaxy S20 Ultra 5G Teardown Analysis | TechInsights

www.techinsights.com

Xiaomi Mi 10 Teardown Analysis | TechInsights

Here we were, waiting for the release of the Samsung Galaxy S20 so we could see the Qualcomm Snapdragon 865 mobile platform, and along came Xiaomi with their announcement on February 13 that the Mi 10 - also based on th

www.techinsights.com

A pair of early 2020 phones. 12 GB LPDDR5 estimated to cost $44 for both. S20's storage is ~$23.50; that should be 256 GB eUFS 3.0. $29 for the Mi 10's storage; 256 GB of unspecified eUFS. Actually, devicespecifications claims 3.0 as well.

Hmm, prices seem to have remained stable though (thanks pandemic)?

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/18959/techinsights-teardown-vivo-x-fold-v2178a-smartphone

From last year; $43.16 for 12 GB LPDDR5. $28.63 for 256 GB of eUFS 3.1.

The rumour does mention 48 GB of (24 Gbps) GDDR6X being used.

---

Absolutely, especially since Nvidia's still fabricating some datacentre products using TSMC's 7N process node (e.g. BlueField 3, ConnectX-7, Quantum-2).

Ooh, so Micron would've cooked up either stacking or 4 GB chips just for this. Probably the former.
...heeeyyy, it just occurred to me that 6 and 6X's voltages look to be about the same, so the alleged -15% power draw comes from the change to PAM4 signaling. In turn, I'd then guess that GDDR7's -25% power draw over regular 6 would come from a combination of PAM4 signaling (my mistake; GDDR7 will be using PAM3 instead) and lower voltages?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

[*]When, say, the GameCube was getting ready for release, Nintendo released less N64 games as it got closer, but didn't stop having any major games more than a year in advance

2001 was pretty bad. Not counting pre-2001 games getting a later western release, the new first/second party games were basically Bad Fur Day and Japan-only Animal Crossing.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Honestly I think Nintendo for their own purposes will be happy with a say 2.5 TFLOP machine (docked) for a long, long, long time.

A 2.5 TFLOP machine is nearly a Series S. I realize this is a tangent, but I'm using your post as an excuse to get extra nerdy. Let's take a look at this chart

GPU	Half Precision TFLOPS	Single Precision TFLOPS	Double Precision TFLOPS
RTX 3080 Ti	34	34	0.533
RX 6900 XT	46	23	1.1

This is an Ampere card (like Drake) and an RDNA 2 card (like Series S). You'll notice there are 3 TFLOPS numbers, not one.

Inside a GPU there is a separate hardware for 16-bit operations (half precision) 32-bit operations (single precision), and 64-bit operations (double precision). Because there is separate hardware, each comes from a separate pool of TFLOPS. Hardware makers like to advertise the biggest numbers, so they historically have all used half precision as the "TFLOP" number.

Games barely if ever use 64-bit operations on the GPU. But they use a strong mix of single and double precision. This is why it looks like TFLOPS don't compare between Nvidia and AMD, but actually, they do - if you account for both.

If you just look at Half Precision, the AMD card should blow the Nvidia one out of the water. If you look at Single Precision, you see the opposite. But if you average the Half and Single precision... the cards are identical.

And that's how they perform! I've got 27 benchmarks here, all from Digital Foundry, running the same games, at the same settings, on the same computer, just changing the card. And if you look at the performance differences, the card generally perform within 5% of each other. I'll inline the data so you can check my work

Spoiler: Giant table of game benchmarks

Game	Resolution	RX 6900 frame rate	RTX 3080 Ti frame rate
Doom Eternal	4k	152	187
	1440p	330	348
	1080p	465	453
Borderlands 3	4k	69	68
	1440p	122	116
	1080p	162	157
Control	4k	52	64
	1440p	107	124
	1080p	164	180
Shadow of the Tomb Raider	4k	87	99
	1440p	163	167
	1080p	194	194
Death Stranding	4k	109	109
	1440p	174	171
	1080p	211	209
Far Cry 5	4k	108	109
Hitman 2	4k	98	104
Assassin's Creed Odyssey	4k	72	69
Metro Exodus	4k	70	79
	1440p	110	122
	1080p	134	135
Dirt Rally 2.0	4k	82	88
	1440p	147	146
	1080p	203	191
Assassin's Creed Unity	4k	95	104
	1440p	165	176
	1080p	180	203

RDNA 2 run their 32-bit operations at half speed relative to their 16-bit, Ampere cards run them at the same speed. So can use this to compare T239 at various clocks to Series S

Console	Half Precision TFLOPS	Single Precision TFLOPS	Average TFLOPS
Series S	4	2	3
T239	2.5	2.5	2.5

So, I think you're right that Nintendo will ride ~2.5 TFLOPS for a long time! I just hope people realize how far 2.5 Ampere TFLOPS can really go.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Technically, but Nintendo still doesn't even make software that squeezes the Switch just as well as XB3, LM3 and the mentioned above. If that's the metric we have for the manufacturer as a whole, then we're going to have a lengthy skill ceiling for all studios before they can even match the average Sony 1st party we get nowadays in visuals and scope. Again, having iterative engines and software means nothing if the tools are still unchanged from the predecessor, while also not considering the budget concerns that the 1 billion has been spent for at first place. It has never been as easy as people here put it like, because besides Monolith... No Nintendo project is remotely comparable in scope to what they make, BOTW and XB3 are the exceptions, not the rule.

Nintendo doesn't go all out on every game because they can't afford to. No publisher could keep up Nintendo's prolific release schedule while having every single game they put out be up to the top "AAA" standards possible for the hardware. Sony publishes barely any games compared to Nintendo. Efficient resource allocation is a big component of Nintendo's overall development strategy. You get your big Zeldas and Marios every so often, but there's a lot of smaller things in between them.

 

[Dmax3901]

Wait til I get home and post some CEMU BotW screenshots.

 

[Brofield]

Super Nintendo Switch Showcase 1 and 2 on February 9th and June 13th.

Everybody, 1-2 Switch Era Directs in 2023

 

[Deleted member 887]

What is your cost estimate for Drake at 8nm vs 5nm?

Long to medium term, no idea. I think Thraktor is right that prices will come down rapidly, but I'm ball parking a 30% premium at launch.

What was the cost of the Tegra X1 at launch?

Fomalhaut Techno Solutions is a lab that specializes in teardowns and mobile hardware analysis - basically if you want to get an in depth look at a competitor's product without corporate espionage, you buy them off the shelf and then they give you a report.

I don't have access to their database, but when the Switch came out, it was reported that they priced the SOC and the screen together as $167.

And what type of die size reduction when going from 8nm to 5nm? My search results dont suggest much in the way of die size reduction, maybe 20% at the most?

It's hard to get data because there are no products I know of that are otherwise identical but die shrunk across the two nodes. GA102, the first Ampere GPU, had a die area of 628 mm² and 28 billion transistors. AD102, the first Lovelace GPU, is 608mm² 76 billion transistors. That's a 2.7x increase in density. So I'd expect a 65% reduction.

 

[Angel Whispers]

Same vibes as those dumb console warrior posts comparing Halo and God of War because the former has smashable fruit or whatever lmao

Nice drive-by, troll. It isn’t “console warring” to point out verifiable facts. It’s rather “console warring” to peddle “behind the times” narratives - That might be acceptable on ResetEra and other such havens of bad faith discourse, but I would hope for better in these Famiboards parts. It isn’t “console warring” to highlight the gross double standards in gaming discourse, where Skyward Sword’s Fi gets criticised, but GOW: Ragnorok can adopt things from that 2011 LOZ title and entries before it in its design philosophy, and nobody bats an eyelid. The question there is not “which is better?”, it’s “Why the insistence that Nintendo are behind the times when their influence is obvious in games that succeeded it on other platforms?” - Can’t have it both ways. OR, Get this… It could be that they’re very much in tune, but just as Santa Monica and Naughty Dog have found what works for them, Nintendo EPD has done that, too. It isn’t “console warring” to use examples to illustrate my point. Halo and God Of War are entirely different genres, too, so, your drive-by post, trying to make this about “console warring” when it isn’t, is a clear indication that you have neither the range nor the minerals required to hold a discussion with me, and that you aren’t here in good faith. So, I’ll finish it for you. Catch a block, tbqh.

 

[Kise Ryota]

RDNA 2 run their 32-bit operations at half speed relative to their 16-bit, Ampere cards run them at the same speed. So can use this to compare T239 at various clocks to Series S

Console	Half Precision TFLOPS	Single Precision TFLOPS	Average TFLOPS
Series S	4	2	3
T239	2.5	2.5	2.5

So, I think you're right that Nintendo will ride ~2.5 TFLOPS for a long time! I just hope people realize how far 2.5 Ampere TFLOPS can really go.

According to google (techpowerup), series s has 8TF half precision and 4TF single precision. What am I missing here?

 

[Deleted member 887]

According to google (techpowerup), series s has 8TF half precision and 4TF single precision. What am I missing here?

Hmm - it's possible that Series S runs double rate FP16, unlike the rest of RDNA2. If they do, I haven't found a reference, but let me do some digging!

 

[Kise Ryota]

Hmm - it's possible that Series S runs double rate FP16, unlike the rest of RDNA2. If they do, I haven't found a reference, but let me do some digging!

I believe series s, x and ps5 marketed teraflops are all FP32 (so 4TF, 12TF and 10TF respectively), doubling the numbers when FP16.

 

[LinkURL]

Hmm - it's possible that Series S runs double rate FP16, unlike the rest of RDNA2. If they do, I haven't found a reference, but let me do some digging!

I could be wrong, but I think the classic way to count FLOPS is cores * frequency * 2.
And the result would be Single-precision.
This method of averaging between FP32 and FP16 seems pretty wrong to me too to be honest.

 

[PixelKnight]

Hi everyone.

This is a reminder about the staff post made regarding stricter moderation in this thread:

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

mods, can we ban @Raccoon again (I would legitimately laugh if Nintendo found a way to rationalize this) No, if anything he's thinking too small. Team CalcioIsReal baby!

famiboards.com

This thread is still generating a large number of reports. Remember to use the ignore function rather than to engage with hostility. - PixelKnight, Derachi, Red Monster

 

[Machrider]

To be honest Nintendo really doesn't even need Series S level power. Sure as a tech enthusiast it would be nice, but anything that's sorta in between a PS4-PS5 like the current Switch is kinda in between a PS3-PS4 would be through the roof for Nintendo's own games and allow for a flood of 3rd party content.

Even games like Jedi Survivor and Street Fighter 6 should be relatively straight forward to port especially if DLSS is introduced into that mix allowing the dev to run a game at a much lower native res than the Series S has to.

 

[ILikeFeet]

in regards to the Series S comparison, just have more ram so there can be ray tracing

 

[Aurc]

That might be acceptable on ResetEra and other such havens of bad faith discourse

Just as a reminder: we aim to broadly discourage snipes toward external communities, and cross-forum drama in a more general sense. Thank you!

 

[Concernt]

in regards to the Series S comparison, just have more ram so there can be ray tracing

I think 12GB is likely.

 

[karmitt]

I’d pay $70 for this on the successor like the mark I am.

Would absolutely repurchase the game for the 4th time. 1-2. launch copies for myself and my wife; 3. lent it to a friend whose backpack was stolen

 

[ILikeFeet]

I think 12GB is likely.

I think it is too. I'm curious as to how much the BVH structures take up. in Forspoken, the BVH was 500MB, but as fucked up as that implementation is, I'm not sure if I want to use it as a data point

 

[fwd-bwd]

A lot has been said about the alleged production increase in 2023. One way (among many possibilities) to achieve this is to release some truly special Special Editions to entice collectors. This year is the 40th birthday of Family Computer and also Luigi. In the past, Nintendo celebrated similar occasions by releasing SEs. Would they repeat that with Switch OLED or Lite?

 

[karmitt]

A lot has been said about the alleged production increase in 2023. One way (among many possibilities) to achieve this is to release some truly special Special Editions to entice collectors. This year is the 40th birthday of Family Computer and also Luigi. In the past, Nintendo celebrated similar occasions by releasing SEs. Would they repeat that with Switch OLED or Lite?

Is there that much of an appetite for multiples of special editions over a year? I figure that would be milking an increasingly small crowd the more they produce. Zelda OLED (assuming it's real) is likely already targeting a decently large number of existing owners.

 

[Lancelot]

Seems like everything I talked beforehand is a real topic now (and some are already admitting it, funnily enough)... You just love to see it in any case, keep up the good work guys.

 

[Lancelot]

Isn't that FF7 screenshot a cinematic? FF7R is a good looking game but it might be more fair to use an in-game shot.

With respect to cinematics, I think games like Luigi's Mansion 3 are up there. Not =, but ≈

This game was legitimately mindblowing on release, LM3 is only close because it's actually using the high quality shaders and textures you'd expect from a last gen home console. Still very impressive and the best looking Switch game to date, XC3 would be up there if the reconstruction and lack of foliage wasn't so obvious.

 

[Lancelot]

Nintendo doesn't go all out on every game because they can't afford to. No publisher could keep up Nintendo's prolific release schedule while having every single game they put out be up to the top "AAA" standards possible for the hardware. Sony publishes barely any games compared to Nintendo. Efficient resource allocation is a big component of Nintendo's overall development strategy. You get your big Zeldas and Marios every so often, but there's a lot of smaller things in between them.

I'd say Mario hasn't been a real looker since the Wii so... Yeah, guess we only got our Zeldas and Xenoblades, as well as our Luigi's Mansions sometimes. Given the budgets needed to get PS4-tier games even with smaller releases, BOTW budgets for every release is about the ceiling to get this thing squeezed out of the door, unless we're talking about 2D, isometric games or genres that don't need the money.

 

[Hairway to Steven]

To be honest Nintendo really doesn't even need Series S level power. Sure as a tech enthusiast it would be nice, but anything that's sorta in between a PS4-PS5 like the current Switch is kinda in between a PS3-PS4 would be through the roof for Nintendo's own games and allow for a flood of 3rd party content.

Even games like Jedi Survivor and Street Fighter 6 should be relatively straight forward to port especially if DLSS is introduced into that mix allowing the dev to run a game at a much lower native res than the Series S has to.

I agree. Nintendo doesn't need to go completely bonkers. It just needs to be enough to allow for easy 3rd party porting.

My other worry is that Nintendo, rather than releasing a "Switch 2", will try and reinvent the wheel again and do something completely out of left field.

 

[fwd-bwd]

Is there that much of an appetite for multiples of special editions over a year? I figure that would be milking an increasingly small crowd the more they produce. Zelda OLED (assuming it's real) is likely already targeting a decently large number of existing owners.

I don’t have any market research data, but can see it go either way. Yes, there’s a risk of market exhaustion, but more variants potentially could reach more target groups. As a data point of just one person, I would not consider the TotK SE at all, but would seriously entice to buy a Famicom and/or Luigi SE. Looking at Nintendo’s hardware history, they certainly were not afraid to flood the market with variants and SEs, especially the handhelds:

Nintendo Switch (original, Lite, OLED): all the models, packs, Limited Editions, etc. - Perfectly Nintendo

On this page, you will find an exhaustive list of all the official Nintendo Switch models, packs, bundles, Limited Editions, and more!

www.perfectly-nintendo.com

Limited Edition consoles

Splatoon 3 edition Pokémon Scarlet and Violet edition Pikachu edition Pikachu Pocket Printer edition Pokémon Third Anniversary edition Pokémon GS edition Pokémon Yellow edition Pokémon edition Suicune Blue edition Celebi Green edition Pokémon Center New York edition Latios & Latias edition...

nintendo.fandom.com

 

[Discostew]

This game was legitimately mindblowing on release, LM3 is only close because it's actually using the high quality shaders and textures you'd expect from a last gen home console. Still very impressive and the best looking Switch game to date, XC3 would be up there if the reconstruction and lack of foliage wasn't so obvious.

To note, LM3 does restrict the camera direction most of time, so there is a bit of control as to how the game could be designed. Not as much as in cutscenes, but better than your average "any-direction" game.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'd say Mario hasn't been a real looker since the Wii so... Yeah, guess we only got our Zeldas and Xenoblades, as well as our Luigi's Mansions sometimes. Given the budgets needed to get PS4-tier games even with smaller releases, BOTW budgets for every release is about the ceiling to get this thing squeezed out of the door, unless we're talking about 2D, isometric games or genres that don't need the money.

Nah, 3D World, Odyssey (and MK8 if you count it) look fantastic.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Good specs. One of the things to keep in mind is that cost number. There are a lot of folk here who want Nintendo to get to Series S performance, and they're willing to crash the handheld side of things to get there. But the only way to justify that cost to consumers is the fact that the Switch, well, Switches, and the series S doesn't.

Hmm, maybe it would be closer to 3 hours/OG Switch Battery with 5nm Samsung, while they save 3nm Samsung for a revision. If they go the Samsung route.

Wonder how much LPDDR5X memory at 133 GB/s would help though if they get to 3-4 TFLOPs in docked mode.

Would handheld mode suffer that much if it was set to 88 GB/s, while docked goes to 133GB/s? Besides the switch having a low bandwidth (only 2x as much as Wii U), the 20% difference between handheld and docked mode was pretty eh.. but there's at least a 50% difference with my theoretical proposal.

I'm not actually sure off hand. Just with RAM densities over the last 6 years, I assume 8GB costs about what the Switch's 4GB's cost, but not sure what the added cost might be for 2 6GB modules. If @Look over there has some info, I'll add it.


1080p screen doubles the screen's power draw, but the SOC dominates power draw. These are based on a "minimal brightness" setting, so power draw will get worse as the screen gets brighter, but I didn't have great numbers for all of that.


I calculate the TDP but normalize it to battery life, because I'm also assuming a slightly larger battery. But I can probably pull that out.


Good specs. One of the things to keep in mind is that cost number. There are a lot of folk here who want Nintendo to get to Series S performance, and they're willing to crash the handheld side of things to get there. But the only way to justify that cost to consumers is the fact that the Switch, well, Switches, and the series S doesn't.



Games are generally trying to take strong advantage of multicore over single core, but it's harder than it looks, and games can fuck it up. Gotham Knights is an example of a game doing abysmally on modern hardware, primarily because its single threaded.

I can get to what I think of as reasonable performance without having to go to 5nm, but threading that battery life needle is hard. 5nm makes all those troubles go away - but can you get people to buy a 400+ dollar Switch, when a 300 dollar Series S has Game Pass, and they've already got a phone?

It kind of worked with the switch though... Switch and Switch OLED. I do think that portability will be a big factor, despite the $100 difference.
They could also offer another SKU with higher storage to help offset the costs.

Other than that, I'm betting they will get a good deal from Nvidia and Samsung/TMSC. More so from Samsung.

Console	Half Precision TFLOPS	Single Precision TFLOPS	Average TFLOPS
Series S	4	2	3
T239	2.5	2.5	2.5

So, I think you're right that Nintendo will ride ~2.5 TFLOPS for a long time! I just hope people realize how far 2.5 Ampere TFLOPS can really go.

IIRC, I believe it was @Z0m3le who told me on the other board. who heard it from a Ubisoft dev that (this might have been around the time SnakePass came out)... the half-precision and single-precision on Switch weren't exactly equal. And by that he meant that the vast majority of games used single-precision FP32, VS half precision FP16. But maybe I misremembered some things? I don't know.

I also forgot how turning and ampere compare. Because Turing is supposed to be more efficient per FLOP, but Ampere has double the flops. I forgot if it was in half precision.

To be honest Nintendo really doesn't even need Series S level power. Sure as a tech enthusiast it would be nice, but anything that's sorta in between a PS4-PS5 like the current Switch is kinda in between a PS3-PS4 would be through the roof for Nintendo's own games and allow for a flood of 3rd party content.

Even games like Jedi Survivor and Street Fighter 6 should be relatively straight forward to port especially if DLSS is introduced into that mix allowing the dev to run a game at a much lower native res than the Series S has to.

Yeah, CPU and RAM bandwidth is more important than GPU for switch 2 when it comes to bottlenecks. I would love a 4 TFLOPs GPU, but 2.5-3 would be great.

I'd say Mario hasn't been a real looker since the Wii so... Yeah, guess we only got our Zeldas and Xenoblades, as well as our Luigi's Mansions sometimes. Given the budgets needed to get PS4-tier games even with smaller releases, BOTW budgets for every release is about the ceiling to get this thing squeezed out of the door, unless we're talking about 2D, isometric games or genres that don't need the money.

Super Mario Odyssey looks fantastic and is still one of the best-looking Switch games since release.

 

[Jersh]

It isn’t “console warring” to highlight the gross double standards in gaming discourse, where Skyward Sword’s Fi gets criticised, but GOW: Ragnorok can adopt things from that 2011 LOZ title and entries before it in its design philosophy, and nobody bats an eyelid.

I'm pretty sure people did more than bat an eyelid, unless I'm misremembering. I don't even own a PlayStation, yet I became aware of the handholding issues in GOW as it took over gaming discourse for a couple days. The difference, as I understand, is that people like the underlying game a lot more than they did Skyward Sword - which is fine, as it made several design decisions that weren't for everyone - and as a result the issues faded from discourse, as the rest of the game made much stronger impressions on people that they wanted to discuss more.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Seems like everything I talked beforehand is a real topic now (and some are already admitting it, funnily enough)... You just love to see it in any case, keep up the good work guys.

You're approaching this subject from a strange angle that's sort of adjacent to actual concerns but oversimplified to the point where it's really warping your conclusions, which is what people are reacting to. There's no simple formula of hardware power = required development resources where more powerful hardware is just a flat multiplier to the equation. Certain parts of the asset production pipeline may sort of approximate that, but especially as the hardware gets more powerful, it's more about the desired fidelity than the hardware power itself. Art direction is a more important factor to how a game looks than raw technical merits or how much money was spent on making it.

Also there's just a lot of factors that go into how easy hardware is to develop for. The PS3 has a very exotic CPU designed around a really difficult to use computing paradigm that required a lot of extra work just to get decent results out of it. Sony's developers had to put ridiculous amounts of effort into optimization for it because they basically didn't have any other choice. On the other hand, Drake is an evolution of the fairly standard hardware that Nintendo has already been working with for years now. Everything Nintendo's doing now will translate over fine, and some of the new tricks the hardware has up its sleeve could even ultimately make their job easier for exclusive games, like with RT.

I'd say Mario hasn't been a real looker since the Wii so... Yeah, guess we only got our Zeldas and Xenoblades, as well as our Luigi's Mansions sometimes. Given the budgets needed to get PS4-tier games even with smaller releases, BOTW budgets for every release is about the ceiling to get this thing squeezed out of the door, unless we're talking about 2D, isometric games or genres that don't need the money.

It's debatable if Xenoblade or Luigi's mansion would even be (by Nintendo standards) "AAA" games. A lot of what those do well probably comes down more to their respective studios' strengths than what sort of budget they're getting from Nintendo.

 

[NineTailSage]

The problem I keep pointing out to people who say the next Switch will be priced between $400 - $500 is that days of being able to cut console prices are over. Nintendo will not want to be lumbered selling a console at that price the same way Xbox did not want to and made the Series S so they could have a console hit the mass market price of $299.

I think with the impact of inflation on consumer goods the average person understands that prices can go up over time.
Just look at consoles from the 90's mass market pricing was $150-$200 and by the year 2000 the next devices were launching for $200-$300.
PS4 was a $400 machine at launch and for most of that large install base, now both PS5/Series X launched at $500(not including the recent price increases) and one can only assume that by the time PS6 comes along I fully expect these machines to be $600.

I'm almost certain if this new device is $400-450 at launch, they can offer a new Switch Lite in 2 years for $300-350 and still make a profit on it.
The more expensive Switch model is still outselling the Lite regardless of the price differences, so yes families are doing what Nintendo was hoping for by purchasing multiple devices under one home. They just see a better value in the $300-350 device versus the $200 cheaper model and I'm sure Nintendo are well aware of these metrics. The Switch has never had an official price drop over the life of the device, so the next Switch Nintendo will also want to be able to sell for its initial price for as long as possible as well...

I agree. Nintendo doesn't need to go completely bonkers. It just needs to be enough to allow for easy 3rd party porting.

My other worry is that Nintendo, rather than releasing a "Switch 2", will try and reinvent the wheel again and do something completely out of left field.

Under Iwata I would agree with you, but Furukawa running Nintendo is not the man for taking extreme risks.
I fully expect them to milk this hybrid format for 2-3 generations more before looking for another new trick.

 

[Mekanos]

Switch 2 will definitely be around 399 imo. It'll be Nintendo's most expensive console yet, but still in the range that kids can reasonably get it from their parents.

 

[Terrell]

If you guys were to bet on the maximum capacity in mah for a switch 2 battery, what would it be?
4500mah? 5000mah? 5500mah? 6000mah?
My personal guess is 5500.

Pretty safe bet. Thanks to YoY energy density improvements, a battery the same size as in current Switches would have an estimated ~5700mAh.

Unfortunately, I don't have much to offer on price. @Terrell might know more?
I'm doing some searching around to see what I can find from TechInsights teardown articles that are freely available, but I'm not getting a whole lot in direct comparisons (not only in ~size and type, but also time).
https://www.techinsights.com/blog/oneplus-2-teardown - OnePlus 2, a device released in July 2015. Its 4 GB LPDDR4 ram is estimated to cost $31. Hmm, $25.5 for its non-volatile memory (storage I take it). That should be 64 GB eMMC. Although when one scrolls down further to see the OnePlus 2 vs Samsung Galaxy Note 5 comparison, the storage drops to $13, oookay. The Galaxy Note 5's eUFS 2.0 storage is also $13; that's either 32 or 64 GB.

Incidentally...

Samsung Galaxy S20 Ultra 5G Teardown Analysis | TechInsights

www.techinsights.com

Xiaomi Mi 10 Teardown Analysis | TechInsights

Here we were, waiting for the release of the Samsung Galaxy S20 so we could see the Qualcomm Snapdragon 865 mobile platform, and along came Xiaomi with their announcement on February 13 that the Mi 10 - also based on th

www.techinsights.com

A pair of early 2020 phones. 12 GB LPDDR5 estimated to cost $44 for both. S20's storage is ~$23.50; that should be 256 GB eUFS 3.0. $29 for the Mi 10's storage; 256 GB of unspecified eUFS. Actually, devicespecifications claims 3.0 as well.

Hmm, prices seem to have remained stable though (thanks pandemic)?

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/18959/techinsights-teardown-vivo-x-fold-v2178a-smartphone

From last year; $43.16 for 12 GB LPDDR5. $28.63 for 256 GB of eUFS 3.1.

Ooh, so Micron would've cooked up either stacking or 4 GB chips just for this. Probably the former.
...heeeyyy, it just occurred to me that 6 and 6X's voltages look to be about the same, so the alleged -15% power draw comes from the change to PAM4 signaling. In turn, I'd then guess that GDDR7's -25% power draw over regular 6 would come from a combination of PAM4 signaling (my mistake; GDDR7 will be using PAM3 instead) and lower voltages?

You're likely not far off the mark on RAM pricing.
Investigating RAM pricing has ultimately led me to the conclusion that there are peaks and valleys in its pricing relative to the introduction of new standards and that, with enough space between them, you're likely to pay less per GB on the newer standard now than you would have in 2017 on the older standard. I have nothing more to add beyond a repost of my prior look at RAM pricing:

Likewise, when you review retail prices on RAM historically, you can see that better RAM eventually equals the price one would pay for the prior generation. 2 x 8GB of DDR4-3000 RAM in 2017 was available for $75-80 (which is more than what went into Switch), while in 2022, 2 x 8GB of DDR5-4800 is $63. So that's... as low as $4.69 per GB of DDR4 in 2017 vs. $3.94 per GB of DD5 in 2022. Keeping in mind that this is retail price analysis for computer parts, it bodes well for the jump in RAM quantity in Drake not being that much more money, all things considered. It'll be more, but not enough that one should consider a $200 price increase to the hardware to be reasonable.

 

[Dmax3901]

Wait til I get home and post some CEMU BotW screenshots.

As promised:






Obviously took these while doing the Gerudo section, but I'm happy to jump to any area to take screens if people are curious.

 

[Mirev]

Isn't that FF7 screenshot a cinematic? FF7R is a good looking game but it might be more fair to use an in-game shot.

With respect to cinematics, I think games like Luigi's Mansion 3 are up there. Not =, but ≈

Not really, FF is a lot more complex than LM3, that is beautiful but not on the same level (also totally different game and artstyle, it’s not easy to compare).
I would use games like Ratchet & Clank for a comparison

 

[Bonejack]

As promised:






Obviously took these while doing the Gerudo section, but I'm happy to jump to any area to take screens if people are curious.

No no, we're good, it's the best section of the game.

Also, if we can learn one thing from these emulator screenshots, it's that a sublime art design and art style is most often more important that the raw number of meshs.

BotW (and almost certainly TotK) will still look good in Playstation 8 times.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

No no, we're good, it's the best section of the game.

Also, if we can learn one thing from these emulator screenshots, it's that a sublime art design and art style is most often more important that the raw number of meshs.

BotW (and almost certainly TotK) will still look good in Playstation 8 times.

I agree, Look at dragon quest 8 it's held up so well when emulated at a higher res than native it's kind of crazy