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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

As we said, it seems Nintendo is targeting a full-on successor that is likely to come as early as 2024. There doesn't seem to be any plans for a 2023 hardware release -- be it a revision or successor -- to any of our knowledge.

My assumption is Drake will be the SoC of the successor. I only know the features & general spec range of the kits. Not the specific SoC of them.
What concrete piece of information should make us believe that hardware A was cancelled and hardware B is now planned to release just one year later, while possibly even using the same chip? Because that just sounds like a bad game of telephone version of "hardware A was planned for this year but is now delayed."
 
So this is pure speculation, but if the console was delayed due to inability to produce the hardware, yet the SoC appears to be done, which component do people think is the most likely candidate?

Just spitballing here as I am not very clued up on where the shortages are, but just want to go over some possibilities.

LPDDR5 - I strongly doubt this is where the issue is. There is a huge amount of demand for LPDDR5 owing to mobile but I can't find any mentions of shortages in the past month. Its such a standard commodity in electronics I just don't see it.

UFS 3.1 - Again, a common element of mobile so I would apply the same logic as LPDDR5. Just don't see it personally.

Wireless modules - This one I think is possible, there are so many devices beyond mobile that use wireless technologies, Bluetooth devices, IoT devices, laptops, pc, mobile, consoles. I know this was the major issue when I ordered a laptop a year ago and delayed it by six months, however in recent months I cannot find evidence that shortage has continued.

Cartridges - This one I can see, Nintendo is completely dependant on Macronix and switch 64GB Cart availability suffered a two year delay already. Its proprietry tech and there aren't many companies in the world who can produce it. If switch 2 needed new cart tech I could see this being cause for a delay.

External Media - If Nintendo decided to enforce the use of eUFS card or SD Express and partners had issues ramping up volume then I can see this being an issue too but less likely than cart issues. I can see Nintendo enforcing faster external media if they opt for a small amount of internal storage and they want to keep a consistent user experience across formats. Especially with large third party games likely exceeding most cart sizes.

I think out of all of these I'd go with cart issues causing a delay. Do I think it's likely a production bottle neck caused a delay vs some other shift in decision making? I'm not sure. I am still of the opinion that if anything disrupted plans its the collapsing crypto markets dropping nvidia GPU demand. An early pivot and decision to design drake on TSMC 4N to use up that capacity could have happened in early 2022 when crypto began to crash and Russia invaded Ukraine driving up global energy prices making mining no longer profitable. This also would lineup with the apparent cancellation timeline and dev kits being recalled in June 2022.
Originally missed this post.

First, NAND is currently heavily over-supplied, so eUFS and other flash storage options would likely be dirt-cheap for Nintendo to buy right now; it's a buyer's market for flash storage at the moment, is what I'm saying, no matter what format you're talking about.

Second, the thing with Game Cards is that Nintendo holds all the leverage. The issues with delivering a 64GB Game Card date all the way back to 2019 or so (even pre-pandemic), so if we're 3 years in and Macronix doesn't have a solution, Nintendo has likely moved on from them being the sole supplier. As talented as they may be, Macronix are not the only ROM producer in town, and Nintendo's got somewhere close to an order volume of 75-100 million ROMs per year to motivate other companies like Renesas, Samsung or Kioxia or some other big name with the right process node fabs to jump at the chance to take the business of one of Macronix's biggest corporate clients.
Or they could do something even bolder and just ask one of their existing fabless partners to design them an EPROM on an appropriate process node that could be mass-produced at TSMC, SMIC or another foundry as one-time-programmable EPROMs that can be programmed outside the manufacturing facility (put more simply, manufacture blanks that have one permanent write cycle), rather than the current method where Macronix handles the chip programming along with the production.

At that kind of volume, if Macronix can't commit to giving Nintendo what it wants, they're not exactly out of options, and they'll either use those options as leverage to get Macronix to prioritize their needs or walk off. Personally, they're probably better off walking away and having more control of manufacturing and distribution, but that's just my take.
as far as I know, the A78AE is still an A78 but with extra functions.

the problem with the Nano and, if Drake makes it to market in a nintendo system, the binned T239 is that Nvidia won't make enough product to actually compete. the TX1s and probably Nanos as well were dump products, so I can't really come to the conclusion that these are serious entries to those markets. those binned playstation 5s SoCs, and Xbox Ones SoCs previously, are rare products because AMD just shat them out without any intention of actual usability. especially the XBO chip. that was only found in china after all
A78AE's extra function is that it's a safe-compute chip. For error-less processing needs (like autonomous vehicles and robotics), that's a boon. For general computing, it's a waste of silicon (A78AE features a more complex DynamIQ DSU because it's intended to facilitate 3 different modes that it can flip between at boot, some more suited to task than others). It's a CPU design with a very specific use-case, which is almost assuredly precisely why Drake isn't using it.

Binned TX1s supply both the Jetson Nano AND the entire current line of Shield devices and seem capable of doing so just fine. The micro PC market isn’t all THAT large, but it is likely to see better sellthough than a new Shield TV would, and the Nano line will take care of binned Orin devices as is. Nvidia also isn’t exactly averse to its own branded products being out of stock, so if they can’t supply enough to meet demand, I don’t think they’ll care, so long as they get complete sell-through on a product containing a chip that would otherwise be waste.
One of the big issues with T239 being used in a (Windows) PC is that Windows on ARM is currently exclusive to Qualcomm chips. Microsoft would have to be talked out of that exclusivity, and I don't think T239 offers much that they can't get from Qualcomm.

The real advantage T239 (or any Nvidia SoC) would have in the PC space is a capable integrated GPU, but without games being compiled natively for ARM you're still going to end up with pretty poor gaming performance. Perhaps if Nvidia is planning to move into desktop ARM CPUs after Grace, they could use T239 to get their foot in the door, and work with developers to get games ported over to ARM before they launch a desktop lineup.

Mediatek is already planning to enter the Windows on ARM arena along with MS talking of doing their own SoC designs for future Surface devices, so the exclusivity is winding down.
 
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As we said, it seems Nintendo is targeting a full-on successor that is likely to come as early as 2024. There doesn't seem to be any plans for a 2023 hardware release -- be it a revision or successor -- to any of our knowledge.

My assumption is Drake will be the SoC of the successor. I only know the features & general spec range of the kits. Not the specific SoC of them.

Si I take it the main reason you believe no new hardware is coming this year is because you believe you'd have had confirmation of that by now if that were the case, rather than just because of devkits being pulled late last year. Is that correct?
 
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when the most famous drum machine of all time likes your post
Me too! And it wasn't one of my speculative ones, just a garden variety choco shitpost. :ROFLMAO:
I was good at the human beatbox in high school, hence the nickname LOL.

You could say Nintendo and Roland interested me in (Japanese) electronics. They both used to source components from NEC and Sharp etc. SEGA hardware shared technologies with some Yamaha synths and drum machines: FM sound synthesis and a 68000 CPU. The Roland MC-505 Groovebox had a Hitachi SH2 CPU in common with the SEGA Saturn. Edit: 1990s sound sample ROM cards from Korg, Yamaha, and Roland looked almost identical to NEC Turbo Grafx HuCards.
 
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I wanted to share a cool Mario idea I had that I think would have worked on a Switch 2 and was kind of sort of the reason why I thought a Switch 2 was going to release this year. It's a bit hard to explain my vision as I see it in my head but I'm going to try so feel free to share your thoughts if you like what my concept or not.

It has been more then a decade since the last mainline 2D Mario entry (not including Mario Maker games). I had conceptualized the idea that we could get a 2D Mario game based on the film and scenery from the film but more then that, if Nintendo developed the tech right, a hybrid of something that infused 2D and 3D, I honestly think they could get very close to the movie visuals in a Switch 2 if the game was mostly played in 2D of course.

Many of the gorgeous platforming shots in the Mario movie I believe could be rendered in such a way where not everything has to actually be rendered in full 3D. I think Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze is kind of the closest to what I mean. Some near screen objects would be partially rendered in 3D and some background structures as well but a lot of other elements could be the CG shots infused into the experience.

111.jpg


It is my belief that we could have a 2D Mario game that gets very close to the visuals seen in the film. Not 1:1 obviously but close enough where it would very much look like you're playing segments of the movie. Of course I don't see this being possible on the Switch we have today.

I imagine that they could rework some of the designs seen in the film into a fully functional 2D Mario game and maybe even possibly get some of the voice actors for the game. Wouldn't it be cool to explore the Mushroom Kingdom we get in the film in a 2D movie tie-in video game that actually looks very close to the visuals of the film and some of the 2D shots in 4K?

Now granted, I don't see this happening anymore. There was a small window of time where I thought this could be coming but the Switch 2 release dynamic, well we all heard the latest on that.

222.jpg


Anyways I could see this being a fun one off Mario game. I wouldn't want every 2D Mario game to look like the movie but a single movie tie-in game with those visuals translated into a 2D side scrolling Mario game I think would be quite awesome and fun. Just to be clear, I'm not saying these visuals could be met 1:1 but I do think a Switch 2 could get extremely close. Enough that people wouldn't really care about any differences all that much. I want to avoid people telling me it's not possible to push those visuals entirely on a mobile chipset. I know it couldn't 100% match these visuals. I do think they could get close enough though where it generally looks like a massive upgrade of current Switch 2D Mario.

The videogame could serve as the sequel to the movie. The movie wraps up but leads into what would become the video game, could even feature a videogame trailer after the movie. This would have sold like crazy and I'm legitimately surprised Nintendo most likely hasn't thought of this themselves. This movie is going to be a massive blockbuster worldwide and pushing a videogame tie in that continues where the film left off would have been absurdly brilliant and Nintendo would be crushing it in sales. Imagine if the Switch 2 was out in April and this was a launch title. Switch 2 would absolutely be flying off of shelves lol.

I will say again, we are getting a major theme park and a major Mario movie this year when we have the lowest amount of Mario releases in 32 years (as someone has pointed out previously, don't remember the source) so I find it highly probably that we will get at LEAST one Mario adventure this year to look forward to. Could be a new 2D Mario. Could be a classic port or collection, a new 3D Mario (unlikely?), Super Mario Odyssey DLC (unlikely?) or something to buy. Nintendo is a videogame company after all and the Mario well has been pretty dry as of late. Nintendo is going to want us buying new games and most people already own the already released Mario games they wanted (though I'm sure those will receive an uptick in sales when the movie releases).

So what do you guys think? Do you like my idea? Do you think we will get a new Mario game this year? Is Nintendo going to casually drop a Switch 2 with open world Super Mario Beyond 4K and Tears of the Kingdom 4L? ;)

P.S: I may or may not have had just a little too much coffee tonight.
 
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I think any potential of a new Switch revision (On the level of the Lite or OLED) in 2023 is killed by the TotK OLED
I mean Nintendo UK did announce a limited edition Super Smash Bros Nintendo 3DS XL on 13 August 2014 with a launch date of 3 October 2014 in the UK relatively shortly before Nintendo Co. Ltd announced the New Nintendo 3DS and the New Nintendo 3DS XL on 29 August 2014 with a launch date on 11 October 2014 in Japan. So never say never.
On the Switch side, IIRC, the Mario Red & Blue Edition came out in February 2021, and the Monster Hunter Rise Deluxe Edition in March. The OLED model was announced in July and released in October.
 
I think it's fair to say Nate and DF heard a revision got cancelled in favor of a successor, no specifics on which SoC. Their predictions on possible launch dates is predicated on when they think the revision was cancelled and when the successor should be ready. If the cancellation is what they think it is, (e.g. around 2022) then it makes sense they erred on side of caution and predicted late 2024 and 2025. John actually thinks it will be a repeat of Switch with a late 2023 announcement and a Q4 FY 2024 release ending March 2024.

We should wait until their fiscal year results and forecasting as well as the next few directs to see what the software situation looks like. It's going to be hard to hide the fact their 1st party teams are missing if all we get are remasters/remakes and 3rd parties. If on the other hand there are major Nintendo developed titles coming this year then I think a further out release date is more likely.

Since cross-gen is a thing, it's still possible even a heavy 1st party year can still result in a relatively close successor launch with upgrades and BC, but my feeling is it's less likely.

In anycase, next few months will I feel tell a lot.
 
We should expect some new chatter about new devkits arriving in 2023 if a whole new device is comming in 2024-25.

Something does not match here.
Yea. Its been discussed to death, but the whole delay/ cancellation situation is very hard to reconcile when we know T239 exists as a physical product.
 
I don't think this is entirely true. It's been pointed out several times that dev kits were pulled, and that John's and Nate's stories lined up in that respect, but the way they speculate on 'what's next' tells us that they've no insight beyond that, and just that they personally don't expect anything this year.

If we look at the summary Dakhil graciously provided, it's filled to the brim with speculation that muddies the meaning of 'cancelled'. I've bolded pieces that demonstrate uncertainty or are even contradictory to an actual cancellation:


I think Nate's statement of 'may or may not come in 2023' is because despite what they they've heard, there's still a layer of obfuscation at play.
Fair enough, there were some nuances although I believe he just clarified where he stands.
Thanks for summarizing. I'm really trying to cut back and stop sinking deeper into this nonsense parade, but I still find myself typing walls of text.

Bottom line:


I do doubt this, because that would be actual clarity, and wouldn't merit hedging over whether 2023 is still possible, or speculation and debate in the podcast over different scenarios like everyone's still not sure what even happened.
That's one sure thing! On the other hand, it seems pretty clear they are sure enough to report what's not happening. I assume for better or worse we will get some kind of confirmation soon enough if that's the case.
 
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Something cool I would like to see (not sure if this is actually possible tho) is the return of Street Pass but maybe incorporate the tech for it into one of the joycon’s? Or a device that connects to the Switch via the Joycon slide rails and can upload the data to the Swotch?
 
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I still believe in the possibility of 2023 (actually even in May with TotK).
But what if NVidia actually developed an intermediate SoC, full BC with Maxwell but with Tensor Cores? And that's what they planned for 22/23, with the cancellation they decided to advance Drake's development.
I know we don't have any references to another SoC in NVN2, but perhaps the API was already thought of in Drake, with the midgen SoC using NVN1 or a """NVN1.5""".
 
I still believe in the possibility of 2023 (actually even in May with TotK).
But what if NVidia actually developed an intermediate SoC, full BC with Maxwell but with Tensor Cores? And that's what they planned for 22/23, with the cancellation they decided to advance Drake's development.
I know we don't have any references to another SoC in NVN2, but perhaps the API was already thought of in Drake, with the midgen SoC using NVN1 or a """NVN1.5""".
There are more productive ways to waste millions of dollars.
 
I wanted to share a cool Mario idea I had that I think would have worked on a Switch 2 and was kind of sort of the reason why I thought a Switch 2 was going to release this year. It's a bit hard to explain my vision as I see it in my head but I'm going to try so feel free to share your thoughts if you like what my concept or not.

It has been more then a decade since the last mainline 2D Mario entry (not including Mario Maker games). I had conceptualized the idea that we could get a 2D Mario game based on the film and scenery from the film but more then that, if Nintendo developed the tech right, a hybrid of something that infused 2D and 3D, I honestly think they could get very close to the movie visuals in a Switch 2 if the game was mostly played in 2D of course.

Many of the gorgeous platforming shots in the Mario movie I believe could be rendered in such a way where not everything has to actually be rendered in full 3D. I think Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze is kind of the closest to what I mean. Some near screen objects would be partially rendered in 3D and some background structures as well but a lot of other elements could be the CG shots infused into the experience.

111.jpg


It is my belief that we could have a 2D Mario game that gets very close to the visuals seen in the film. Not 1:1 obviously but close enough where it would very much look like you're playing segments of the movie. Of course I don't see this being possible on the Switch we have today.

I imagine that they could rework some of the designs seen in the film into a fully functional 2D Mario game and maybe even possibly get some of the voice actors for the game. Wouldn't it be cool to explore the Mushroom Kingdom we get in the film in a 2D movie tie-in video game that actually looks very close to the visuals of the film and some of the 2D shots in 4K?

Now granted, I don't see this happening anymore. There was a small window of time where I thought this could be coming but the Switch 2 release dynamic, well we all heard the latest on that.

222.jpg


Anyways I could see this being a fun one off Mario game. I wouldn't want every 2D Mario game to look like the movie but a single movie tie-in game with those visuals translated into a 2D side scrolling Mario game I think would be quite awesome and fun. Just to be clear, I'm not saying these visuals could be met 1:1 but I do think a Switch 2 could get extremely close. Enough that people wouldn't really care about any differences all that much. I want to avoid people telling me it's not possible to push those visuals entirely on a mobile chipset. I know it couldn't 100% match these visuals. I do think they could get close enough though where it generally looks like a massive upgrade of current Switch 2D Mario.

The videogame could serve as the sequel to the movie. The movie wraps up but leads into what would become the video game, could even feature a videogame trailer after the movie. This would have sold like crazy and I'm legitimately surprised Nintendo most likely hasn't thought of this themselves. This movie is going to be a massive blockbuster worldwide and pushing a videogame tie in that continues where the film left off would have been absurdly brilliant and Nintendo would be crushing it in sales. Imagine if the Switch 2 was out in April and this was a launch title. Switch 2 would absolutely be flying off of shelves lol.

I will say again, we are getting a major theme park and a major Mario movie this year when we have the lowest amount of Mario releases in 32 years (as someone has pointed out previously, don't remember the source) so I find it highly probably that we will get at LEAST one Mario adventure this year to look forward to. Could be a new 2D Mario. Could be a classic port or collection, a new 3D Mario (unlikely?), Super Mario Odyssey DLC (unlikely?) or something to buy. Nintendo is a videogame company after all and the Mario well has been pretty dry as of late. Nintendo is going to want us buying new games and most people already own the already released Mario games they wanted (though I'm sure those will receive an uptick in sales when the movie releases).

So what do you guys think? Do you like my idea? Do you think we will get a new Mario game this year? Is Nintendo going to casually drop a Switch 2 with open world Super Mario Beyond 4K and Tears of the Kingdom 4L? ;)

P.S: I may or may not have had just a little too much coffee tonight.
The video game adapted from the movie adapted from the video game. Let EPD do what they do best. Nintendo's IP are valuable because people love their games. They don't need to become marketing props, they just need to continue to be what they are: good games. If the movie was thought with a game in mind, then sure, why not. As you say, a modernized 2.5D Mario, which would be finally something else than New Super Mario, could be pleasant. But even with all the supervision in the world, this is not a Nintendo movie, the jokes we see in the trailer are actually very very typical of what Illumination does all the time. I'm not saying this to be pejorative, I'm just saying that we're not talking about an internal creative process here, despite the obvious collaboration.

I think it's great that Nintendo is diversifying. I'm pretty confident that the Super Mario movie won't be bad and will be successful. Besides, Sonic showed that you can make silly movies that ruin your own license and still be a huge success. But I hope with all my heart that Nintendo will never in a million years start to consider its games as derivatives. Their business is games. Theme parks and movies capitalize on the image of games. I think that if one day it is games that start to become derivatives of movies or theme parks, it will mean that Nintendo is not doing particularly well.
 
To extend on the point of direct competition against the Playstation * and Series X:
We all agree that the Switch offers a separate area it participates/competes in by being able to be played handheld, tabletop, or hooked up to a display.
With it essentially being a tablet, it also carries with it a set of expectations that people would associate with tablet/mobile devices.

With tv-only boxes, because the PS5 and Xbox Series X exist, there already is a set of expectations to be met by such devices sold for $500 (or close to it) in the 2020's. Now, the Series S can get away with having less GPU grunt because it's in an entirely different price bracket. "Yea, it's the lesser Xbox, but a couple hundred bucks saved is a couple hundred bucks"

Btw fellas, don't lock your thinking into there being only two form factors; handheld and stationary TV-only boxes. There's a form factor in between that's been around for decades; laptops. And people intuitive know to some level that the laptop form factor has capabilities in between handheld and stationary big box. And correspondingly, have its own set of price to performance ratio expectations.
Yes, it's like the 3rd time or so I'm mentioning this. I'm gonna speak this into the existence eventually! ✊

Now, I think that Nintendo should stick with the Switch form factor, so I'll keep this non-specific to any particular company:
Take a laptop, but remove the keyboard and mouse/touchpad. Maybe thicken it a bit, so it has enough depth such that you can have storage area(s) for controllers. 2 or 4 controllers, depending on size as well as the controllers themselves. For marketing, it's not a "Laptop" anymore. Now it's a "Party Box" or "Party Brick" (while emphasizing it dominating tabletop play but still having the option to hook up to a display). Hell, go even further; add a handle. Maybe add some latches to one side to be able to keep it closed more securely. Now it's a "Party Case".
Should be able to comfortably handle 192-bit or 256-bit of (insert latest DDR/LPDDR), depending on exact size and thickness. Hell, if you want a theoretical present day example: imagine Orin (the 32 GB variant), but drop the auto specific stuff and replace the 8 A78AE with 8 A78C, clocked up to maybe mid to high 2 Ghz on a N7 or N5 node (or should we even try to touch 3 Ghz? Hmm...)

More realistically though? Probably fast forward some years into the... let's say LPDDR6X era. Close to 2030, maybe? 192-bit LPDDR6X probably gets you to 409.6 GB/s; close to the PS5. 256-bit would be 546 GB/s. Add in a few generations of improvement to reconstruction techniques. A few more nodes. Further improved battery density. Imagine what one can do in the 28-35 watt bracket. Or the ~45 watt category. Or even that 'desktop replacement' 65 watt category.
The console equivalent of a laptop would probably be tabletop. 😉
 
Yea. Its been discussed to death, but the whole delay/ cancellation situation is very hard to reconcile when we know T239 exists as a physical product.
I continue to suspect that what's happened is that only marketing around the device has changed in earnest, due to market conditions, and that the sudden fall off of insiders with information is Nintendo told everyone to shut their traps or never work with them again.

But that's just a theory.
 
I continue to suspect that what's happened is that only marketing around the device has changed in earnest, due to market conditions, and that the sudden fall off of insiders with information is Nintendo told everyone to shut their traps or never work with them again.

But that's just a theory.
I liked the idea of Nintendo plugging holes with leakers who leaked deliberately wrong information. It worked for Smash.

And also about the lack of insider information, it would be understandable considering the gigaleaks (Nintendo and Nvidia's) have put them on edge, so I don't think the usual insider sources would be too reliable.

This is more a case of "Drake submerges".
 
I continue to suspect that what's happened is that only marketing around the device has changed in earnest, due to market conditions, and that the sudden fall off of insiders with information is Nintendo told everyone to shut their traps or never work with them again.

But that's just a theory.
I think it makes sense.
Nintendo were probably very pissed after the Bloomberg report.

Do all these devs really need devkits? Zynga? Really?

Whoever is targeting the current Switch can just improve the game after the successor is announced.

All it takes is a few trusted partners, Capcom, Square Enix, FromSoft, Activision, etc. Those wouldn't leak anything. Then you'd have all Resident Evils, Kingdom Hearts, Elden Ring and Call of Duty as launch titles. Those publishers would be drooling at the long tails of those sales.
 
Did Nintendo really expect to be leak free? Even Apple isn’t. Things went quiet likely because Nintendo was being vague. “Due to pandemic/shortages/improved dev kits/etc. we’re not doing the late-ish 22 release. The system will have the same architecture so your work won’t go to waste. Please understand.”
 
Did Nintendo really expect to be leak free? Even Apple isn’t. Things went quiet likely because Nintendo was being vague. “Due to pandemic/shortages/improved dev kits/etc. we’re not doing the late-ish 22 release. The system will have the same architecture so your work won’t go to waste. Please understand.”
that feels like more words than necessary. "due to pandemic and shortages, we're pushing the release back a year"
 
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Did Nintendo really expect to be leak free? Even Apple isn’t. Things went quiet likely because Nintendo was being vague. “Due to pandemic/shortages/improved dev kits/etc. we’re not doing the late-ish 22 release. The system will have the same architecture so your work won’t go to waste. Please understand.”
This. I highly doubt a company like nintendo would throw a tantrum and say "nuh-uh, we are going to delay/cancel this product now because some of you couldn't just keep your mouths shut".

Thing is, people already mentioned here how drake as is on 8nm is viable if we think of it as a first iteration with mediocre battery life like the 2017 switch which later would get a die shrink to improve battery life considerably. And regardless of the node, nintendo will clock the damn thing down anyways.

So whether developers had access or not to the hardware or were developing software for it through other means, doesn't matter, nintendo isn't releasing it now because they are not ready and want to ship a final batch of switches first. The increase in production makes this pretty obvious.
 
Did Nintendo really expect to be leak free? Even Apple isn’t. Things went quiet likely because Nintendo was being vague. “Due to pandemic/shortages/improved dev kits/etc. we’re not doing the late-ish 22 release. The system will have the same architecture so your work won’t go to waste. Please understand.”
there were leaks on Switch and that wasn't cancelled.
 
Thing is, people already mentioned here how drake as is on 8nm is viable if we think of it as a first iteration with mediocre battery life like the 2017 switch which later would get a die shrink to improve battery life considerably. And regardless of the node, nintendo will clock the damn thing down anyways.
It is debatable, or should I say highly questionable wether 8nm is viable in handheld mode at all without shenanigans like disabled SM. And even if they could, why would they? When they could rather have acheived similiar or higher performance with less silicon.
 
So Drake might be ready, but 'Switch 2' could be more than a year away.

Could this be weighing on Nintendo's (or Nvidia's) pockets or does it change nothing because mass production (Drake) probably hasn't started yet?

Also beyond the node, what could change for the better in these months? maybe ram?
Or is everything already set in stone and therefore not changeable

p. s. I completely discard the hypothesis of a 'Drake 2.0' because this would postpone the release of the successor well beyond two years if I understand correctly.
 
This. I highly doubt a company like nintendo would throw a tantrum and say "nuh-uh, we are going to delay/cancel this product now because some of you couldn't just keep your mouths shut".

Thing is, people already mentioned here how drake as is on 8nm is viable if we think of it as a first iteration with mediocre battery life like the 2017 switch which later would get a die shrink to improve battery life considerably. And regardless of the node, nintendo will clock the damn thing down anyways.

So whether developers had access or not to the hardware or were developing software for it through other means, doesn't matter, nintendo isn't releasing it now because they are not ready and want to ship a final batch of switches first. The increase in production makes this pretty obvious.
I think the increase in production is actually suspicious.

Nintendo is running out of people to sell the Switch to. I would expect 20% decrease in hardware forecast, not a 10% increase. The whole industry is down this year. I don't think a console on its 7th year would sell 20+ millions, with or without a 3D Mario, with or without a price cut.

I think it would take a significant price-cut, a huge push in peripheric markets, a 3D Mario and a game that goes viral, such as Nintendogs, for Nintendo to sell that many Switches.

That increased forecast hides something else.
 
Assuming drake is the SoC, there are/were a number of puzzles we sort of smoothed over in our eagerness to see it soon.

The leak last year revealed a much larger chip than what Samsung 8nm could achieve, and a suggestion of a die shrink was dismissed because it would cause a delay.

But if the original design was for a smaller chip on 8nm with fewer SMs, and it was redesigned to be a larger chip on a smaller node with more SMs then it makes absolute sense. The conclusion we can draw there is if 8nm would yield a chip much too larger with 12 SM, then it must be smaller than 8nm.
 
I think the increase in production is actually suspicious.

Nintendo is running out of people to sell the Switch to. I would expect 20% decrease in hardware forecast, not a 10% increase. The whole industry is down this year. I don't think a console on its 7th year would sell 20+ millions, with or without a 3D Mario, with or without a price cut.

I think it would take a significant price-cut, a huge push in peripheric markets, a 3D Mario and a game that goes viral, such as Nintendogs, for Nintendo to sell that many Switches.

That increased forecast hides something else.
Nintendo officially hasn't said anything. Analysts are speculating that they are increasing production to 21m, correct? The earnings report on Feb 7 will let us know what their true hardware forecasts are.
 
So here's the biggest thing I don't understand about the whole dev-kits fiasco and I will preface this by saying I'm not a developer so things could be just over my head. The earlier rumors of the NX specs were thought to be higher end hardware because the NX tech demos needed cutting-edge chips to run them. Which we then found out later that the Nvidia TX1 was chosen as the final hardware and it wasn't what those first rumors suggested.

I get that earlier console dev-kits from manufacturers were sent out in multiple waves, but with the advancements in development environments and software, most of this process has changed quite a bit from the 5th, 6th and 7th generation days. The Switch is an established gaming platform and has a understandable development environment, so why would Nintendo and Nvidia realistically need to send out early build dev-kits if the main changes from Switch to Switch 2 is 4k(upscaled) graphics. It seems like the same results can be achieved with a newer SDK using either Turing or Ampere level cards until more finalized hardware rolls off the line. Again unless the Switch 2 has some wild new gimmick that needed to be expressed in actuality, we fully understand how the switching method is achieved...

Both Ampere cards and Orin are using SEC's 8nm node and it seems between the two of these lines of products Nvidia and Nintendo can get a good simulation environment of what that process could achieve, before actually spending hundreds of millions of dollars in R&D.(designing a custom SoC that they would scrap or need to modify to a different node)
 
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I've been mentally calling open world 3D Mario "Super Mario Sandbox" for some reason

not sure if they'd use the term in a title given that iirc that's how they describe the Mario 64-likes but it rolls off the tongue and evokes the feel of an open world Mario very well. perhaps the borders could be the massive wooden walls of the sandbox
 
I am curious regarding the forecasted increase in Switch sales for fiscal year 2023. I know the stated reason is a reduction in components, shortages, however, is there any indication that the Switch is supply constrained at retail today? A cursory glance shows it in stock at most major retailers in the US.

I doubt Nintendo is lying in their forecast, so I’m curious if they plan a major expansion in a new market, a price cut, or what to hit that number. A couple of special edition OLED models doesn’t seem like enough.

Edit: Ive been corrected, Bloomberg is reporting on an supplier increase and assuming a forthcoming forecast increase.
 
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I am curious regarding the forecasted increase in Switch sales for fiscal year 2023. I know the stated reason is a reduction in components, shortages, however, is there any indication that the Switch is supply constrained at retail today? A cursory glance shows it in stock at most major retailers in the US.

I doubt Nintendo is lying in their forecast, so I’m curious if they plan a major expansion in a new market, a price cut, or what to hit that number. A couple of special edition OLED models doesn’t seem like enough.
There's no increased forecast yet. Bloomberg is reporting that some suppliers seem to be seeing an increase in orders from last year. That doesn't mean Nintendo plans to sell more Switches this year, we don't yet know what that means.
 
Nintendo officially hasn't said anything. Analysts are speculating that they are increasing production to 21m, correct? The earnings report on Feb 7 will let us know what their true hardware forecasts are.
I've made this mistake too, but the February report will cover Q3 that ended in December. The report about the end of the Fiscal Year and forecasts for the next one will happen in May.
Bloomberg and Nikkei were very early with their production increase information.
 
So Drake might be ready, but 'Switch 2' could be more than a year away.

Could this be weighing on Nintendo's (or Nvidia's) pockets or does it change nothing because mass production (Drake) probably hasn't started yet?

Also beyond the node, what could change for the better in these months? maybe ram?
Or is everything already set in stone and therefore not changeable

p. s. I completely discard the hypothesis of a 'Drake 2.0' because this would postpone the release of the successor well beyond two years if I understand correctly.
Ram is one of the things they can easily change last minute. A lot of devs thought the PS4 would have 4gb until the reveal.

I don't know what else they could change.
 
The only reason Nintendo is increasing production this year is TotK has a permadeath mode that actually kills your console so you’ll need a new one.
 
I think the increase in production is actually suspicious.

Nintendo is running out of people to sell the Switch to. I would expect 20% decrease in hardware forecast, not a 10% increase. The whole industry is down this year. I don't think a console on its 7th year would sell 20+ millions, with or without a 3D Mario, with or without a price cut.

I think it would take a significant price-cut, a huge push in peripheric markets, a 3D Mario and a game that goes viral, such as Nintendogs, for Nintendo to sell that many Switches.

That increased forecast hides something else.
And thus there is reason to suspect 2023 still. Few other scenarios make sense...
 
Maybe we're still all underestimating how big and good Zelda TotK is actually going to be and Nintendo has legitimate reasons to expect a big boost in hardware sales when it releases - maybe even more than games like Pokémon S/V.
But I'd be curious to know more of the correlation (or lack thereof) between a game's sales and how much it sells hardware in proportion.
It's also been discussed a few pages ago about MK8D.
What else, if not Zelda, would make them supposedly increase hardware production so late in the console's life?
 
So Drake might be ready, but 'Switch 2' could be more than a year away.

Could this be weighing on Nintendo's (or Nvidia's) pockets or does it change nothing because mass production (Drake) probably hasn't started yet?

Also beyond the node, what could change for the better in these months? maybe ram?
Or is everything already set in stone and therefore not changeable

p. s. I completely discard the hypothesis of a 'Drake 2.0' because this would postpone the release of the successor well beyond two years if I understand correctly.
it could be that production wasn't scheduled to start yet in the first place. the chip being done is kinda independent of that.

node changing might have been something decided on a year or more ago. delaying a device to a year doesn't give you a lot of time to make changes. a year is more in the "the headlining game isn't ready yet" territory. more ram is doable at least
 
I only know the features & general spec range of the kits. Not the specific SoC of them.
What is that spec range you were hearing for the kits?
What concrete piece of information should make us believe that hardware A was cancelled and hardware B is now planned to release just one year later, while possibly even using the same chip? Because that just sounds like a bad game of telephone version of "hardware A was planned for this year but is now delayed."
I think its likely that Drake was not the SOC for this mid generation refresh if it was indeed targeting a late 2022 release. The turnaround time from Drake being finalized to the new Switch model going to market would not have been in the cards for a late 2022 release. When MVG spoke with developers at GDC 2022, it should have been pretty obvious if this new model was releasing later that year. On top of that, 8NM Drake doesn't seem like it would fit the power budget for Switch and would more likely be developed on a better node. Nvidia would have good indication well in advance of what process they could go with and still have a very affordable SOC. Depending on when they planned to go into mass production, they would have a good idea of what process would be affordable. For example, a device going to market in 2021 using the 5nm process would be expensive, but a product using 5nm targeting late 2023 or 2024 release would have seen those cost come down significantly.
 
Maybe we're still all underestimating how big and good Zelda TotK is actually going to be and Nintendo has legitimate reasons to expect a big boost in hardware sales when it releases - maybe even more than games like Pokémon S/V.
But I'd be curious to know more of the correlation (or lack thereof) between a game's sales and how much it sells hardware in proportion.
It's also been discussed a few pages ago about MK8D.
What else, if not Zelda, would make them supposedly increase hardware production so late in the console's life?
Ehh,

As others have pointed out there have been some heavy hitters sales wiles in terms of games (Splatoon3, Pokemon) that dont seem to have moved the needle in terms of moving more Switch units.

TotK will not move too many new Switch units that BotW hasn't already, other than folks interested in the branded OLED model.

What explains the supplier information. . . What indeed. The next earnings call will be interesting.
 
Maybe we're still all underestimating how big and good Zelda TotK is actually going to be and Nintendo has legitimate reasons to expect a big boost in hardware sales when it releases - maybe even more than games like Pokémon S/V.
But I'd be curious to know more of the correlation (or lack thereof) between a game's sales and how much it sells hardware in proportion.
It's also been discussed a few pages ago about MK8D.
What else, if not Zelda, would make them supposedly increase hardware production so late in the console's life?
An order of magnitude bigger than SV seems extremely unlikely.

There's two reasons I can think of with one wrinkle they share:

One: this is it - this is the last year of Nintendo Switch HAC-001(-01), HEG-001 and HDH-001. Every Nintendo Switch sold in 2024 or later will be manufactured by the end of their 2024 fiscal year ending March 2024. They want enough stock to satisfy the low end of the market for a year or two while they establish a new platform.

Two: this includes the new platform which would easily account for 10% of Nintendo sales in its first year, likely more.

Wrinkle: they intend to bring in price cuts and perhaps a new TV-only model to appeal to the lowest end to scrape out every last drop of penetration Switch 1 can have. This could be true in both above scenarios; as part of the final push so they have the coveted sub 100 dollar product on the market per 2DS and Wii Mini before it. Or if a successor is not in that number but is coming, it accounts for the lack of demand drop off.
 
Maybe we're still all underestimating how big and good Zelda TotK is actually going to be and Nintendo has legitimate reasons to expect a big boost in hardware sales when it releases - maybe even more than games like Pokémon S/V.
But I'd be curious to know more of the correlation (or lack thereof) between a game's sales and how much it sells hardware in proportion.
It's also been discussed a few pages ago about MK8D.
What else, if not Zelda, would make them supposedly increase hardware production so late in the console's life?
No matter how fucking excellent totk is, not many people who haven't played the original by now will buy a switch to play it. Some may upgrade to Oled for it though.
 
Ehh,

As others have pointed out there have been some heavy hitters sales wiles in terms of games (Splatoon3, Pokemon) that dont seem to have moved the needle in terms of moving more Switch units.

TotK will not move too many new Switch units that BotW hasn't already, other than folks interested in the branded OLED model.

What explains the supplier information. . . What indeed. The next earnings call will be interesting.
Keep in mind the supplier leaks are just that. They could be true, untrue, partially true etc.

Even if true, Nintendo is under no obligation to comment.

For maximum chaos, imagine Nintendo announcing a reasonable 15m forecast for fy 2024 and leaving us guessing on the supplier reports.
 
and want to ship a final batch of switches first. The increase in production makes this pretty obvious.
Who does a 20 million final year?
I get that earlier console dev-kits from manufacturers were sent out in multiple waves, but with the advancements in development environments and software, most of this process has changed quite a bit from the 5th, 6th and 7th generation days. The Switch is an established gaming platform and has a understandable development environment, so why would Nintendo and Nvidia realistically need to send out early build dev-kits if the main changes from Switch to Switch 2 is 4k(upscaled) graphics. It seems like the same results can be achieved with a newer SDK using either Turing or Ampere level cards until more finalized hardware rolls off the line. Again unless the Switch 2 has some wild new gimmick that needed to be expressed in actuality, we fully understand how the switching method is achieved...
Doesn't have to be a new user-end gimmick, but ~6 years of change in CPU/GPU/RAM/etc. is something slapping an updated SDK onto old hardware isn't going to properly convey. The changes go a lot beyond: Just develop a Switch game, then make it high res with an updated kit.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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