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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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YugamiSekai said:
I think I'm just gonna buy the OLED tablet itself from somewhere, I don't really need the dock or the joycons, but I have to get some kind of Switch this year or else my save data backups are going in the dumps.
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You can buy a month of switch online or redeem a code for one on Nintendo's website, that's what I did
 
So a year to a year and a half before the supposed "earliest" launch of this "canceled" Q3 '22 - H1 '23 device, devs were apparently told "to have their games ready by the end of 2022". I would assume that rough deadline was the reason Nate extrapolated that original release window. We are now removed an additional 15 months or so from that point in time...and nobody at this point has any idea when to expect new hardware?

Are we to assume that Nintendo was only initially upfront and transparent about a general release window and now, after over a year has passed, has become more vague? Some point last summer, Nintendo "recalled" dev kits. Ok, sure let's accept that. Now what? Were new dev kits (or just SDKs) sent out immediately to replace the old ones? Why would Nintendo not give an updated release window?

I just find it so hard to believe- forget from a developer/publisher perspective, I'm talking a human perspective here- that anyone would just play along with these supposed ever changing, now mysterious, plans. You, as a dev, put in...almost two years of work? Nintendo comes in, recalls/cancels kits (that we have no record of), obviously pushes back the release date of this device...and leaves? What's the story there or more importantly, the lack of one?

I also find it weird that we only ever had two insiders in the entire industry giving dates- one vague and open ended, the other more concrete. The first being from Mochizuki, with him only every saying "late 2022 at the earliest", making it sound like a best case (likely pre-pandemic) plan. And the second, only from Nate's side, that devs were specifically told to have games done by the end of the year for something potentially releasing Q1 2023. Which he was solid on for nearly a year. Fine. But that was it? Nearly six year after the launch of the most successful console in the past decade, the questions of "what's next" or "where's the next thing" should be on everyone's minds. Especially without a "new" or more powerful enhanced upgrade. Instead it feels like predicting next year's weather: "eh, I'm sure it'll be a bit different, but probably more of the same. Can't really plan around it, so no use worrying about it too much."

And now we're just sitting here and supposed to continue doing so, twiddling our thumbs awaiting the next morsel of info from. All the attitude and discussion outside this thread- Ii's all just been so nonchalant and lackadaisical. It's hard to describe this feeling. I don't want to throw around the word apathy, so I'll say that it feels like we've collectively been speculating at a brick wall. It didn't or hasn't mattered what new info has come out or been discovered or how much time has passed. I mean, we objectively get closer to the launch of this thing everyday, yet it feels like we only get farther away. I feel like we "knew" more a few months ago and had more clarity compared to now, even post "DF and co. podcast update".

We were told that this transition is something that Nintendo is taking very seriously. Serious how? Have they really decided to about face and be super transparent one year after the launch of Switch about the length of their generation? For the first time perhaps ever, are Nintendo actually concerned about releasing their next generation too soon? People have memed about Nintendo "milking their consoles to death", but even the Wii/DS only lasted about 6 years each. Are they trying to recoup their losses from the 3DS/Wii U days as much as possible? Have we just been too skeptical from Iwata era Nintendo with regards to hardware announcements? Should we have taken the "7-10 year generation" comments at face value? Is it that others are indifferent or do we care too much?

If Nintendo is waiting longer, is it just so they could make a better system? This isn't like the GB successor, project Atlantis, that never made it past the concept phase. Dev kits were sent to companies like Zynga, who had never made a console game before, which tells us that quite a few devs had these things. If better dev kits are out there, doesn't that mean these devs have to go in and make the effort to do additional optimizations/upgrades? Is Nintendo not worried about playing games with these devs' hearts? How big a delay are they willing to put up with? Devs either do more dev work for x years or the publishers sit on the games they've worked on until now, refusing to do work until they're given more clarity? And it has been presumably about half a year since this change of plans...so shouldn't a new release window be made known to them? No? Am I expecting too much?

Is this just the burden of knowledge? Maybe it would be better to be unaware of all this stuff. Don't know how many more OLED scares I can take.
Anyways, ramble/rant over. You'll probably see less of me in this thread going forward. Well, at least until something more concrete pops up. But I don't feel like I'm getting anything out of coming and checking in here daily anymore. Maybe a few times a week. It's been fun, yet exhausting.

Edit: Perhaps some good ol' fashioned Direct Speculation will rejuvenate my spirits...

Edit 2: Going forward, I will be matching my level of care about Drake to that of the industry. I don't think it's fair to myself to expect myself to constantly be excited about this thing or jump at vague Chinese factory uncles comments. I can't and won't sustain my hype of of offhand twitter comments, podcast segments, or year+ long waits for that revelatory article/podcast.

As much as I love and appreciate both Mochizuki, Nikkei, Nate, Imran Khan or whoever for their contributions to this saga over the past 2-3 years, it will be hard for me to get as invested as I have been the last year until we get some new voice/players in the insider scene. That will, I think, cause a bigger shift in my mood and attitude towards NS2. MZ and NtH are great, but I would like some more variety in my source and diet of insider information.
 
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Hermii said:
No matter how fucking excellent totk is, not many people who haven't played the original by now will buy a switch to play it. Some may upgrade to Oled for it though.
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Counter argument: I'm fucking old and I didnt consider how many new people have become of age to play Zelda games in the last 6 years.
 
YolkFolk said:
Could we see a later version of DLSS now that the hardware is likely coming quite a bit later than anticipated?
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The hardware isn't likely to change. As long as the improvements don't require specific hardware, yea we should get the latest version.

But we would have gotten these updates in firmware updates even if it released today.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
So I am thinking of grabbing one of those portable 4k AMOLED displays from china that come with a built in switch Dock, I figure it will be great for a drake switch and also upgrade my current switch experience, plus I can use it with my phone for retro emulation and as a second laptop display.
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I have a 4K 15.6"OLED display and a 1080p 13.3" OLED display from INNOCN. I tried two other budget brands' OLED displays but disliked them. ViewSonic and Asus also got similar products, but I have no personal experience. You can connect the Switch to these portable monitors directly via a USB-C data cable. If you'd like to use an mClassic and/or 4K Gamer Pro dongle, however, you'd still need a Switch dock to run the signal through HDMI.

Another option to consider is display glasses, such as the TCL Nxtwear S and Nreal Air. Note that these are not truly AR/MR glasses but wearable displays, despite what their marketing tries to tell you. Not really doing AR/MR turns out to be an advantage though, resulting in simpler hardware, less awkward UX, and lower prices. I backed the former's Kickstarter campaign, but haven't received mine. AFAIK, these glasses cannot connect to the Switch's USB-C port directly; the signal needs to first go through a Switch dock, and then an HDMI-to-DP Alt Mode converter, before going into the glasses.

Edit: The prices on the INNOCN site are MSRP. They frequently offer discounts on Amazon.
 
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fwd-bwd said:
I have a 4K 15.6"OLED display and a 1080p 13.3" OLED display from INNOCN. I tried two other budget brands' OLED displays but disliked them. ViewSonic and Asus also got similar products, but I have no personal experience. You can connect the Switch to these portable monitors directly via a USB-C data cable. If you'd like to use an mClassic and/or 4K Gamer Pro dongle, however, you'd still need a Switch dock to run the signal through HDMI.

Another option to consider is display glasses, such as the TCL Nxtwear S and Nreal Air. Note that these are not truly AR/MR glasses but wearable displays, despite what their marketing tries to tell you. Not really doing AR/MR turns out to be an advantage though, resulting in simpler hardware, less awkward UX, and lower prices. I backed the former's Kickstarter campaign, but haven't received mine. AFAIK, these glasses cannot connect to the Switch's USB-C port directly; the signal needs to first go through a Switch dock, and then an HDMI-to-DP Alt Mode converter, before going into the glasses.

Edit: The prices on the INNOCN site are MSRP. They frequently offer discounts on Amazon.
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Thanks for this @fwd-bwd. I have considered AR glasses in the past so will look into those. Only issue is being in the UK some of these products aren't available. Leaning towards a portable 4k OLED display just because I can use it for work as well as play.
 
NateDrake said:
As we said, it seems Nintendo is targeting a full-on successor that is likely to come as early as 2024. There doesn't seem to be any plans for a 2023 hardware release -- be it a revision or successor -- to any of our knowledge.

My assumption is Drake will be the SoC of the successor. I only know the features & general spec range of the kits. Not the specific SoC of them.
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Okay, in that case we discard the launch this year, but what about the announcement?
 
Apologies if this has already been answered but keeping a similar form factor what kind of horsepower are we looking at for the Switch 2 these days? I tend to think for a generational upgrade anything less than the rough equivalent of a PS4 (and a half?) would be insufficient for it to be worth their while, if only for the lack of draw for further third party releases (which seems to have been a good part of the Switches success, though I know Nintendo thrives first and foremost from their 1st party titles). Can something like that be achieved easily and be as slim and portable as the Switch?
 
CaptainWoodlouse said:
Apologies if this has already been answered but keeping a similar form factor what kind of horsepower are we looking at for the Switch 2 these days? I tend to think for a generational upgrade anything less than the rough equivalent of a PS4 (and a half?) would be insufficient for it to be worth their while, if only for the lack of draw for further third party releases (which seems to have been a good part of the Switches success, though I know Nintendo thrives first and foremost from their 1st party titles). Can something like that be achieved easily and be as slim and portable as the Switch?
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At minimum, the processor that has leaked would have about 1TF(Tera-FLOP, or 1 trillion floating point operations per second- think of it like being able to add two numbers together a trillion times every second) of raw performance in handheld mode, with more in TV mode. But even going off 1TF, it has tricks up its sleeves. PS4 is 1.8TF, but has an old, weak CPU, and an older graphics architecture. Having neither of these weaknesses, the new Switch at lowest possible clocks would be comparable in most tasks and better in some. It also has DLSS and a File Decompression Engine, allowing it to stream data far faster and achieve better output resolutions than PS4 with less raw power.

1TF isn't the optimistic scenario, though, it's about the bare minimum the processor that's leaked can operate at, physically. The actual performance is likely to be in the 1.5-3TF range.
 
CaptainWoodlouse said:
Apologies if this has already been answered but keeping a similar form factor what kind of horsepower are we looking at for the Switch 2 these days? I tend to think for a generational upgrade anything less than the rough equivalent of a PS4 (and a half?) would be insufficient for it to be worth their while, if only for the lack of draw for further third party releases (which seems to have been a good part of the Switches success, though I know Nintendo thrives first and foremost from their 1st party titles). Can something like that be achieved easily and be as slim and portable as the Switch?
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Drake could achieve PS4-level of gpu performance (in theory) in handheld mode. that's definitely a generational upgrade
 
Concernt said:
1TF isn't the optimistic scenario, though, it's about the bare minimum the processor that's leaked can operate at, physically. The actual performance is likely to be in the 1.5-3TF range.
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Its so hard to nail down performance at this point without knowing what process Drake is fabricated on. If Drake is designed on 4N compared to 8nm, the performance difference is significant. A lot of people write off 4N thinking its too advanced/expensive of a node for Nintendo, but this is very relevant to when Nintendo is planning to release the new hardware. Because of the mobile markets these processes can transition from expensive to reasonable in the matter of 12-18 months.
 
Goodtwin said:
Its so hard to nail down performance at this point without knowing what process Drake is fabricated on. If Drake is designed on 4N compared to 8nm, the performance difference is significant. A lot of people write off 4N thinking its too advanced/expensive of a node for Nintendo, but this is very relevant to when Nintendo is planning to release the new hardware. Because of the mobile markets these processes can transition from expensive to reasonable in the matter of 12-18 months.
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Hence my personal theory on why the ”revision”: 8nm released in 2022, has now turned into the “successor“: 5nm or 3nm released in 2023 or 2024, respectively.
 
CaptainWoodlouse said:
Apologies if this has already been answered but keeping a similar form factor what kind of horsepower are we looking at for the Switch 2 these days? I tend to think for a generational upgrade anything less than the rough equivalent of a PS4 (and a half?) would be insufficient for it to be worth their while, if only for the lack of draw for further third party releases (which seems to have been a good part of the Switches success, though I know Nintendo thrives first and foremost from their 1st party titles). Can something like that be achieved easily and be as slim and portable as the Switch?
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Concernt said:
At minimum, the processor that has leaked would have about 1TF(Tera-FLOP, or 1 trillion floating point operations per second- think of it like being able to add two numbers together a trillion times every second) of raw performance in handheld mode, with more in TV mode. But even going off 1TF, it has tricks up its sleeves. PS4 is 1.8TF, but has an old, weak CPU, and an older graphics architecture. Having neither of these weaknesses, the new Switch at lowest possible clocks would be comparable in most tasks and better in some. It also has DLSS and a File Decompression Engine, allowing it to stream data far faster and achieve better output resolutions than PS4 with less raw power.

1TF isn't the optimistic scenario, though, it's about the bare minimum the processor that's leaked can operate at, physically. The actual performance is likely to be in the 1.5-3TF range.
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ILikeFeet said:
Drake could achieve PS4-level of gpu performance (in theory) in handheld mode. that's definitely a generational upgrade
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As other said, the GPU should be fine.

The CPU however should be an order of magnitude better, both in performance and features.
 
Goodtwin said:
Its so hard to nail down performance at this point without knowing what process Drake is fabricated on. If Drake is designed on 4N compared to 8nm, the performance difference is significant. A lot of people write off 4N thinking its too advanced/expensive of a node for Nintendo, but this is very relevant to when Nintendo is planning to release the new hardware. Because of the mobile markets these processes can transition from expensive to reasonable in the matter of 12-18 months.
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It's also difficult to compare a very concise mobile low power platform to much larger laptop/desktop gpu's that have excessive components and transistors on the pcb in comparison to a device like the Switch (that also factors into power draw). Orin is definitely the closest design from Nvidia that gives us an idea of what Ampere achieves in a mobile setting and Steamdeck shows this on AMD's side...
 
0
Eclissi said:
I believe that from the next Direct we will understand something.
Nintendo can't think of supporting Switch for 1.5 years (after Zelda) with only Pikmin 4 and maybe MP4, and then a series of DLC and remaster... This would lead to an inevitable loss of momentum.
If there are no heavy announcements in the Direct, then Drake is still 2023 for me.
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Eclissi said:
Sure, it can.

What seems unlikely is that by doing so he could avoid a drastic drop in momentum…
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Let's assume that there is no Switch 2 in 2023, which we don't know for sure right now. Let's imagine that apart from ToTk, Nintendo decides to save its big releases for the next system. That means no Prime 4, no 3D Mario, obviously no Smash, no Mario Kart, no Animal Crossing, no new Xenoblade, no new Pokémon, no new Splatoon, no new Mario Party and no sequel to Ring Fit Advanture either.

Let's imagine in these conditions what 2023 could possibly look like.

January: Fire Emblem Engage
February: Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe
March: Bayonetta Origins
April: Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp?
May: The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
June: Detective Pikatchu 2 (it was announced at E3 2019) or another Pokémon spin off announced during the next Pokémon Presents ?
July: The HD remaster that Namco is developing for Nintendo (Kid Icarus Uprising or Starfox Assault?)
August: A small multiplayer game from EPD 4? (maybe a sequel to 1-2 Switch or Brain Age)
September: Pikmin 4
October: Metroid Prime HD?
November: 2D Mario? (as a big holiday game, to take advantage of the hype around the movie)

This is of course nothing but a quite realistic assumption, it would leave big games aside for the future, but wouldn't exactly look like a year of catastrophic collapse. Not to mention the many DLCs already announced, plus the one probably coming with Zelda.

The question I want to ask is actually simple: does this change much of what we were expecting anyway? We have no idea what this console production story means, or if it is true. We don't know if this includes a future model or if it's about stocking up on the current Switch family.

The goal of selling 20 million or more consoles in the coming fiscal year has no concrete reality at the moment, let's wait and see what Nintendo says soon. But not aiming for those numbers doesn't have to mean a drastic drop just because we decided to think so.
 
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I feel like Prime 4 will launch this holiday with or without new hardware. Prime 1 remake in Spring/Summer probably.
 
boodream said:
Let's assume that there is no Switch 2 in 2023, which we don't know for sure right now. Let's imagine that apart from ToTk, Nintendo decides to save its big releases for the next system. That means no Prime 4, no 3D Mario, obviously no Smash, no Mario Kart, no Animal Crossing, no new Xenoblade, no new Pokémon, no new Splatoon, no new Mario Party and no sequel to Ring Fit Advanture either.

Let's imagine in these conditions what 2023 could possibly look like.

January: Fire Emblem Engage
February: Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe
March: Bayonetta Origins
April: Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp?
May: The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
June: Detective Pikatchu 2 (it was announced at E3 2019) or another Pokémon spin off announced during the next Pokémon Presents ?
July: The HD remaster that Namco is developing for Nintendo (Kid Icarus Uprising or Starfox Assault?)
August: A small multiplayer game from EPD 4? (maybe a sequel to 1-2 Switch or Brain Age)
September: Pikmin 4
October: Metroid Prime HD?
November: 2D Mario? (as a big holiday game, to take advantage of the hype around the movie)

This is of course nothing but a quite realistic assumption, it would leave big games aside for the future, but wouldn't exactly look like a year of catastrophic collapse. Not to mention the many DLCs already announced, plus the one probably coming with Zelda.

The question I want to ask is actually simple: does this change much of what we were expecting anyway? We have no idea what this console production story means, or if it is true. We don't know if this includes a future model or if it's about stocking up on the current Switch family.

The goal of selling 20 million or more consoles in the coming fiscal year has no concrete reality at the moment, let's wait and see what Nintendo says soon. But not aiming for those numbers doesn't have to mean a drastic drop just because we decided to think so.
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Let's try stretch that lineup out to fall 2024. I made a few edits

January: Fire Emblem Engage
February: Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe
March: Bayonetta Origins
April: Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp?
May: The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
June: Detective Pikatchu 2 (it was announced at E3 2019) or another Pokémon spin off announced during the next Pokémon Presents ?
June: Switch Sports Expansion
July: The HD remaster that Namco is developing for Nintendo (Kid Icarus Uprising or Starfox Assault?)
July: Splatoon 2 Expansion
August: A small multiplayer game from EPD 4? (maybe a sequel to 1-2 Switch or Brain Age)
August: F Zero GX Online
September: Pikmin 4
October: Xenoblade 3 Expansion
October: Metroid Prime HD?
November: 2D Mario? (as a big holiday game, to take advantage of the hype around the movie)
November: Mario and Sonic at the Olympics
December: Pokémon SV Expansion
December: Final Mario Kart 8 DLC

2024
February - Zelda TotK DLC
March: Yoshi's Wooly World
April: Paper Mario Wii U Port
May: Twilight Princess HD, Wind waker HD or 2D Zelda
June: Tamodachi Switch
August: Xenoblade X
September: Pushmo World
October: Pokémon Let's Go 2 Johto or Black and White Remake
November: Metroid Prime 4 (Cross Gen)
November: Switch 2 Launch

This isn't including indie games and more 3rd party PS2/PS3 ports that could also come in the mix. Not the best lineup but not the worst as well. Around March/April they would announce the Switch 2 which will make people forgive the slow 2024 lineup as we go closer to Switch 2 release.
 
kalosmani said:
Let's try stretch that lineup out to fall 2024. I made a few edits

January: Fire Emblem Engage
February: Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe
March: Bayonetta Origins
April: Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp?
May: The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
June: Detective Pikatchu 2 (it was announced at E3 2019) or another Pokémon spin off announced during the next Pokémon Presents ?
June: Switch Sports Expansion
July: The HD remaster that Namco is developing for Nintendo (Kid Icarus Uprising or Starfox Assault?)
July: Splatoon 2 Expansion
August: A small multiplayer game from EPD 4? (maybe a sequel to 1-2 Switch or Brain Age)
August: F Zero GX Online
September: Pikmin 4
October: Xenoblade 3 Expansion
October: Metroid Prime HD?
November: 2D Mario? (as a big holiday game, to take advantage of the hype around the movie)
November: Mario and Sonic at the Olympics
December: Pokémon SV Expansion
December: Final Mario Kart 8 DLC

2024
February - Zelda TotK DLC
March: Yoshi's Wooly World
April: Paper Mario Wii U Port
May: Twilight Princess HD, Wind waker HD or 2D Zelda
June: Tamodachi Switch
August: Xenoblade X
September: Pushmo World
October: Pokémon Let's Go 2 Johto or Black and White Remake
November: Metroid Prime 4 (Cross Gen)
November: Switch 2 Launch

This isn't including indie games and more 3rd party PS2/PS3 ports that could also come in the mix. Not the best lineup but not the worst as well. Around March/April they would announce the Switch 2 which will make people forgive the slow 2024 lineup as we go closer to Switch 2 release.
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That holiday 2023 lineup you have is very weak. We'll find out how directs line things up. But my feeling is if we get a lot remasters and b tier releases, Switch is on borrowed time.
 
The amount of cross gen titles we will see will greatly be dependent on when Switch 2 launches. If the unthinkable happens and we do not see it till 2025, then the cross gen period could be practically non existent. If Switch 2 launches in late 2023, we will see a lot of cross gen titles. If 2024 is the year, highly dependent on what part of the year it releases. I do agree that Prime 4 is likely for late 2023 and its definitely coming to OG Switch regardless if Switch 2 is released by then. The Prime games have always been 60fps games, but if the game were to cross gen and Retro still wanted it to shine on OG Switch, I could see them doing running it at 30fps on OG Switch and 60fps on Switch 2. Doom and Doom Eternal proved to me that you can still do a fast paced shooter even at 30fps, and the Prime games use a lock on system making it even less of a twitch shooter.
 
AlwaysOnDeck said:
Expecting a $50 price cut is fan fiction 🤣🤣

If/when a price cut happens, it'll be $20, each. $179 Switch Lite, $279 Switch, no price cut on OLED in 2023.
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The purpose of the post is to use $50 as a base variable in a cost benefit analysis for driving additional sales. You could rerun @fwd-bwd analysis using $20 (or 18.5 to account for retail margin). He goes further to point out why it's a bad idea, which you agree with.

The other option is that Nintendo has recognized cost savings on the manufacture of the Switch and Switch lite and could reduce cost w/o impacting historical margins. I'm hopeful, but skeptical of this option given reporting around the OLED model and that the BOM improvement for the Mariko migration were built into the Switch Lite already. I keep hoping someone has better information about a potential component cost reduction, but I haven't seen it if it has occurred.

That is part of what makes this speculation fascinating, the cost of components (cost per transistor in particular) has not come down as much over time as it has in the past (even before factoring in Covid supply impacts). The PS4 and Xbox One lines saw similar issues with reducing prices over the long term. PS4 Slim and Xbox One S launched at $299 and didnt have a formal reduction in price prior to their retirements.
 
I'm surprised so much stock is put into DLC carrying a month in these speculation calendars, even for multiple games. If a game isn't releasing per month then expansion content, no matter how substantial whether Mario Kart, Zelda or Pokemon, just isn't going to cut it.

I also would be rather shocked that with regards to Metroid Prime 4 potentially being cross-gen that the base Switch is a watered down experience, rather than Switch Drake being a slightly more upscaled and visually enhanced product. MP4 was announced six years ago with the Switch audience in mind. People have bought a Switch with an expectation of Metroid Prime 4 being playable on their console, and not just struggling but performing well like it has on Gamecube and Wii in the past. If Retro wants it 60fps on Switch, it'll be 60fps on Switch. Retro may have had stumblings not putting out a new game in years, but I do not doubt their technical capabilities in finding performance enhancements and efficiencies to reach their technical goals. They've been working on MP4 with OG Switch restrictions; it might just allow for a couple more pixels and some extra fancy lighting techniques on next Switch, but it'll still be a technical marvel much like Breath of the Wild was on Wii U.
 
MrEevee98 said:
Okay, in that case we discard the launch this year, but what about the announcement?
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I would say an announcement is dependent on release target. If release is late 2024, then I think they hold any announcement until 2024. If release is first half of 2024, then an announcement this year is well within reason.
 
NateDrake said:
As we said, it seems Nintendo is targeting a full-on successor that is likely to come as early as 2024. There doesn't seem to be any plans for a 2023 hardware release -- be it a revision or successor -- to any of our knowledge.

My assumption is Drake will be the SoC of the successor. I only know the features & general spec range of the kits. Not the specific SoC of them.
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To revive an eternal debate, what would you say is the difference between a revision and a full fledge successor?

To me it's 100% marketing and positioning. A revision using Drake is the same device as a successor using Drake.
 
Wouldn't say it's necessarily going to be the case but for me the os also plays a part in revision vs successor. I would expect a successor to have a new os whereas a revision would be using the existing Switch os.
 
Regarding announcement vs release timing, if the next system is a “better, more powerful Switch”, I don’t see how you’d announce in the Fall and release in early 2024 and tank your holiday Switch sales. People would 100% hold off on purchasing a Switch this holiday if a better version of the hardware is just a few months away. That said, if the system is a different concept or different enough to differentiate from the Switch hardware then that strategy makes sense. I know the Switch was announced in Fall (right?) with a 2017 Spring release but Nintendo literally had nothing lined up for that holiday other than the NES classic or whatever.

IMO, you either have a late 2023 release or a late 2024 release. But thats totally based on the premise of not wanting to tank your holiday hardware sales.
 
oldpuck said:
That would require redesigning Drake. If you're redesigning the chip, you can do whatever the hell you want to. Nintendo could make a PS5 rival if they wanted to. Drake just isn't a good chip for a TV only console
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I wouldn't say Drake isn't a good chip for a TV only console, just not a good chip for a console to compete with PS5 and Xbox Series X. Without having to keep CPU clocks down to maintain consistency with handheld mode, it could get a lot closer to competing with Series S than a hybrid model could. Eight A78 cores at ~2.8GHz (depending on manufacturing process) would be quite respectable. They'd still likely be bandwidth-constrained on the GPU side, but with DLSS they'd be close enough to the Series S that I don't think most people would notice (or care about) the difference, and it would have the important advantage of playing Nintendo games.

I don't personally think a TV-only model makes sense in the Switch ecosystem unless it matches one of the performance modes of a hybrid model (otherwise it's just adding too much development effort to properly support), but hypothetically if Nintendo did decide to make a Switch-compatible home console that's smaller, cheaper and more power efficient than PS5 or XSX, I think Drake would be a pretty good fit for it.

Terrell said:
www.theverge.com

Microsoft’s Qualcomm exclusivity deal for Windows on Arm reportedly ending soon

The end of the deal could mean more Arm-based laptops.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com

Mediatek is already planning to enter the Windows on ARM arena along with MS talking of doing their own SoC designs for future Surface devices, so the exclusivity is winding down.
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Thanks. I'd still be surprised if Nvidia has designed T239 with that market in mind. Laptops are a much bigger market than micro PCs, so if they're designing a <15W chip and intending on using it in Windows devices, it would be strange for them to chop out the CSI interface (which seems to be standard on Intel laptop CPUs, and Qualcomm Snapdragon laptop chips) and limit webcam options for laptop OEMs.
 
Gamecocks625 said:
Regarding announcement vs release timing, if the next system is a “better, more powerful Switch”, I don’t see how you’d announce in the Fall and release in early 2024 and tank your holiday Switch sales. People would 100% hold off on purchasing a Switch this holiday if a better version of the hardware is just a few months away. That said, if the system is a different concept or different enough to differentiate from the Switch hardware then that strategy makes sense. I know the Switch was announced in Fall (right?) with a 2017 Spring release but Nintendo literally had nothing lined up for that holiday other than the NES classic or whatever.

IMO, you either have a late 2023 release or a late 2024 release. But thats totally based on the premise of not wanting to tank your holiday hardware sales.
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I think we can reasonably say at this point that the people buying a Switch in year 6-7, are largely not people who would be buying a Switch 2 at launch, or would even be aware/concerned/interested in a successor product. I really doubt it impacts the Switch sales trajectory much, at this stage. Now that we have put the idea of a "revision" to rest, and are seemingly more firmly down the path of a traditional successor, I think that means we will also see a similarly traditional lead time. To me that means it's going to be at least mentioned or talked about a good 12+ months before it releases.
 
Raccoon said:
and how's that going for them?
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Extremely well. The fastest selling Xbox ever.

It is an iterative upgrade over Xbox One, but it feels like a multigenerational upgrade. People forget that a console isn't just its gimmicks and UI sometimes. Don't fix what isn't broken, focus on what needs improving.

Switch DOESN'T have a great need for a hugely improved library or any additional gimmicks, what it needs is more power to run more modern games and appeal to early adopters, both of technology in general, and of Switch itself.

I fear pouring too much time and effort into "gimmicks" and "unique experiences" will take away from the important differences in a console generation, like having more processing power, allowing more complex software to run, and thus, more in depth games. They don't need another Wii U.

The only thing really limiting experiences on Switch isn't inputs but specs, and even that is "only barely". Nier: Automata, Witcher 3, No Man's Sky, these are games that, at least as I'm concerned, still haven't come close to being "surpassed" in gameplay or even complexity by anything exclusive to 9th gen consoles. With the exception of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2020, there simply aren't any games with gameplay systems that would simply not function on Switch hardware, it's only a matter (though not a simple matter) of how difficult it is to bring it to Switch.

But that date is fast approaching. Maybe Starfield? Maybe Forza Motorsport 23? Maybe the Last of Us Factions Online (lmao)? It's coming soon, and as much as Nintendo is happy to be behind in raw graphics performance, even they admit that when it limits gameplay possibilities, they want to move on.
 
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