StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Dekuman]

Silver lining with a later launch in 2024 is there will be more time to have software ready.
Many people here, myself included, just want to have a new toy and we just expect everything to be cross-gen until a year or two after the console has been on the market.

Nintendo may be aiming to have more substantive first party exclusives. The most obvious of course is a new Mario, but a 2024 launch could allow for potentially a 2-D brand new Zelda, and even a splatoon title in the launch window. The Animal Crossing team wrapped up support for the Switch title in 2021 and we could see something from that team in 2024.

 

[Raccoon]

Honestly if Nintendo is stupid enough to ramp up production of the current switch that is on them. They keep talking about supply being an issue, but the Switch has been easy enough to find so there is no missing demand that will suddenly show up if they make millions of extra units. They will just have millions of extra units in storage.

it's straight up irresponsible

you've passed market saturation nintendo, stop production

 

[Serif]

Even if the market is saturated with 'normal' Switches and Switch Lites, I'm sure Nintendo would love all those folks to upgrade to Switch OLEDs. Bonus if those owner hand down or resell their old Switch units, as that would put more software into circulation.

 

[Racalia]

Have fun, y'all.

This is a strange decision. I don't see it as achievable to reach the target of 21 million Switches shipped in the next fiscal year, without new hardware. Not even with major price cuts. I expected 15 million maximum.

Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom will certainly be successful, but I doubt it will reach the numbers of its predecessor.

Pikmin 4 and possibly Metroid Prime 4 will also do well, but not enough for those numbers.

The rest of the lineup right now are pretty much just remasters and remakes: Kirby Return to Dreamland HD, Advance Wars 1+2, the rumored F-Zero remaster, the remored Baiten Kaitos game, the rumored Metroid Prime Trilogy HD, the rumored Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War remake...

I feel like Nintendo is holding something back.

 

[Dekuman]

They usually refresh the Switch line every 2 years. 2017 launch 2019 Lite/newSwitch 2021 OLED. If no succ this year, then we may have something like Switch OLED Lite.

The increased component orders could also be hiding production of a new hardware. Given the current consensus is the hardware is delayed to sometime in 2024, it's not entirely clear that's actually the plan, just educated guess. FY 2024 extends in Mar 2024, so if they plan to announce late this year and launch Mar 2024, like what John from DF is speculating, production will likley need to start in 2023 and those components would have to be ordered now.

A third possibility here is Nintendo has some major moves they plan to make on hardware and software which could sustain the increased production target.
Spring direct should fill out what we can expect for Switch. The good news is, it is probably at most about a month away, could be as soon as next week.

 

[Raccoon]

Even if the market is saturated with 'normal' Switches and Switch Lites, I'm sure Nintendo would love all those folks to upgrade to Switch OLEDs. Bonus if those owner hand down or resell their old Switch units, as that would put more software into circulation.

yeah, I hope that most of the old systems are winding up in new hands instead of landfills

afaik we don't have any data on that but I imagine most of them do

 

[Serif]

yeah, I hope that most of the old systems are winding up in new hands instead of landfills

The genuine e-waste is the Black Friday Mario Kart 8 DX bundle that's still just a V1 Switch, that they've literally still been selling as recently as this past November. It will outlive me, lmao

 

[YugamiSekai]

I love how the OLED Lite somehow always finds itself back in the discussion.

 

[Raccoon]

The genuine e-waste is the Black Friday Mario Kart 8 DX bundle that's still just a V1 Switch, that they've literally still been selling as recently as this past November. It will outlive me, lmao

lmfao holy shit

 

[ArchedThunder]

So I’m confused by that Nikkei report about Nintendo being in negotiations for components for their next gen system. Why would that mean late 2024?

 

[Apopheniac]

yeah, I hope that most of the old systems are winding up in new hands instead of landfills

afaik we don't have any data on that but I imagine most of them do

I feel like a lot of people would do a trade-in if they're upgrading to a newer model

I have no idea what I'm supposed to do with a broken model, though. I know Best Buy has a bin you can dump old electronics in, I guess I could dump mine in there if it broke

 

[Dekuman]

The genuine e-waste is the Black Friday Mario Kart 8 DX bundle that's still just a V1 Switch, that they've literally still been selling as recently as this past November. It will outlive me, lmao

there can't be that many 20nm X1s left right? They shifted production to 12nm in 2019. Unless they're just recyling refurbished units in those bundles, or there's a literal stockpile of old TX1 chips they are using to crank out these bundles in a line somewhere.

 

[Common Knowledge]

Are they just banking extremely hard on Zelda or something? I mean I get the system is selling well still but to actually increase productions beyond current levels?

 

[DecoReturns]

a fun game to play if you're bored is to guess which posts are serious and which are jokes

You need a break lol

 

[LiC]

So I’m confused by that Nikkei report about Nintendo being in negotiations for components for their next gen system. Why would that mean late 2024?

Not a report! But no, IMO there's no way that's happening for a system planned for 2024 at all, let alone late 2024, if we accept the author's likely un-vetted claim that it's happening right now.

The same article just happened to mention that "the industry" doesn't expect new Nintendo hardware until H2 2024 at the earliest. The two statements were in separate paragraphs and no attempt was made to reconcile them. Instead, for some reason the claim about supplier negotiations was contrasted with a quote of Furukawa saying they want their next system to provide a different experience from the competition. I think Nikkei needs better editors.

 

[Look over there]

Just because they're making big power suckers doesn't mean the other option doesn't exist. Series S seems to use a similar amount of power as Xbox One. Series X uses twice as much, but Google tells me it's still comparable to Xbox 360.

I think regardless of what the foundries pump out, diminishing returns is a thing. Standard TVs are probably never going to have another jump as noticeable to people as the one to 4K, at least until 120" screens become the norm. "Now our 4K60 games are 4K120 and have tracier lighting!" is not going to have the same impact.

1. True! As you point out, other options do exist! And I wish that those are taken.
The caveat here is how do those brands make that pivot? It's easier for Microsoft with the Series S. The Series SS or S2 or whatever can be reasonably expected by consumers to target a similar power and form factor. But what about Sony? Can a Playstation 6 be dialed down and still deliver what people expect from a "Playstation 6"?
I think that I've mentioned it once before, but I think that in the long term, consoles need to evolve someway to remain sustainable. My preference is of course dialing back downward. But to facilitate that, I also end up thinking that the Playstation brand would need to be rebooted. It can't just be a business as usual "Playstation 6/7/etc.".

2. I agree on the diminishing returns! Which leads to the next question: What's the marketing for a PS6, if/when there is one?

There is where random stuff gets spitballed. Like a couple of days ago, here I toss out the idea of going with a laptop style form factor.
Although maybe instead of 28-35 watts, you can maybe go chunkier and push up to the 40's or 50's? Ditch the keyboard and touchpad; maybe use that space to hold a couple of controllers.
But something like this wouldn't be a "Playstation X". But it also wouldn't be a "Playstation Portable" revival. Maybe a "Playstation Travel"?

 

[Raccoon]

You need a break lol

don't tell me what to do, dad

Are they just banking extremely hard on Zelda or something? I mean I get the system is selling well still but to actually increase productions beyond current levels?

someone suggested the movie broadening brand awareness and I'm thinking that could be it

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

So I’m confused by that Nikkei report about Nintendo being in negotiations for components for their next gen system. Why would that mean late 2024?

Since Nintendo is only now reportedly talking to suppliers then the presumption would be that they wouldn’t be ready to manufacture until 2024 at the earliest. Though given the article in question is using past quotes as a framing device it is hard to take it seriously.

it's straight up irresponsible

you've passed market saturation nintendo, stop production

It really isn’t that irresponsible nor has it passed market saturation. As @Serif said it could be for OLED which seems like it is replacing the other model.

 

[Shadowrun]

Are they just banking extremely hard on Zelda or something? I mean I get the system is selling well still but to actually increase productions beyond current levels?

They are likely banking on selling every Zelda OLED that they make – and that special edition enticing even existing Switch owners to double/triple dip. I can only make sense of the increased production over last year – if the increased units are all due to Limited Edition/Special Edition systems. Otherwise, it feels risky to increase production, forecast higher and set yourself up for missing that target, which would definitely result in a hard dip to the stock price.

 

[Raccoon]

imagine the super mario bros movie coming out in april and super mario bros 5 coming out in october

that could totally convince some previously uninterested people to give it a shot

 

[Common Knowledge]

don't tell me what to do, dad


someone suggested the movie broadening brand awareness and I'm thinking that could be it

Hm, true. Tbh now that I really think about it, a movie tie-in Mario game released at around the same time as the movie seems like a missed opportunity.

 

[Serif]

I can smell a Mario movie themed OLED on the horizon.

 

[Raccoon]

Hm, true. Tbh now that I really think about it, a movie tie-in Mario game released at around the same time as the movie seems like a missed opportunity.

I definitely respect them not trying to do a complete tie-in from a creative perspective, but having a brand new game on shelves that says "super mario bros" sometime this year would be an incredible maneuver

 

[karmitt]

Let’s just add the recent commentary again from Chris Dring about “no big games in 2023 after TotK”, and ask ourselves how they expect to hit these new numbers.

Not saying I believed the statement, but we have so many little morsels to layer on this shit sandwich already - why not add another?

 

[Mekanos]

imagine the super mario bros movie coming out in april and super mario bros 5 coming out in october

that could totally convince some previously uninterested people to give it a shot

Already at the acceptance stage, that's good

 

[Paxie]

I asked John if he believed the hardware discussed by myself and Bloomberg was the same device he had said was cancelled and he answers in the affirmative that the timelines match.

Well fuck. Nintendo was seriously going to release a Pro 1.5 - 2 years before a successor... what were they thinking??

Let’s just add the recent commentary again from Chris Dring about “no big games in 2023 after TotK”, and ask ourselves how they expect to hit these new numbers.

Not saying I believed the statement, but we have so many little morsels to layer on this shit sandwich already - why not add another?

I imagine they're expecting TotK to be so massive that carries the rest of the year, like people hear "sequel to Breath of the Wild" and instantly want to buy it

 

[Raccoon]

I can smell a Mario movie themed OLED on the horizon.

I use this gif a lot but this is a big

moment

 

[Mango]

I feel like a significant price drop may be why they could be upping units. If the base Switch was $200 I could see many jumping in for that price, but I'm not super knowledgeable in this stuff so I don't actually know.

 

[Raccoon]

Already at the acceptance stage, that's good

I'm just spitballing why are you on my ass like this

excuse me for not being as well-versed in hardware or having as good of business intuition as the rest of the thread

 

[Shadowrun]

Let’s just add the recent commentary again from Chris Dring about “no big games in 2023 after TotK”, and ask ourselves how they expect to hit these new numbers.

Not saying I believed the statement, but we have so many little morsels to layer on this shit sandwich already - why not add another?

Price cut.

 

[DecoReturns]

I bet it’s the big Expansion of the NSO service that’s gonna rake in these numbers.

That’s right.

Virtual boy NSO app!!!

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Well fuck. Nintendo was seriously going to release a Pro 1.5 - 2 years before a successor... what were they thinking??

I doubt they were going to

I feel like a significant price drop may be why they could be upping units. If the base Switch was $200 I could see many jumping in for that price, but I'm not super knowledgeable in this stuff so I don't actually know.

Considering Nintendo’s comments on the OLED & the margin. I don’t think a price cut that low is in the future. Never mind base Switch being that undercuts Lite & I doubt they wanna go lower with the Lite.

 

[deletarek]

I feel like a significant price drop may be why they could be upping units. If the base Switch was $200 I could see many jumping in for that price, but I'm not super knowledgeable in this stuff so I don't actually know.

Yep I mentioned before it’s either that or Drake hardware being included in the number as the only ways 20M is even remotely feasible. Unless Nintendo has an actual Pokémon level system seller phenomenon cooking that we are unaware of.

 

[Raccoon]

to be fully serious for a moment a price cut is definitely an obvious avenue to new user adoption

everyone has a threshold

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

1. True! As you point out, other options do exist! And I wish that those are taken.
The caveat here is how do those brands make that pivot? It's easier for Microsoft with the Series S. The Series SS or S2 or whatever can be reasonably expected by consumers to target a similar power and form factor. But what about Sony? Can a Playstation 6 be dialed down and still deliver what people expect from a "Playstation 6"?
I think that I've mentioned it once before, but I think that in the long term, consoles need to evolve someway to remain sustainable. My preference is of course dialing back downward. But to facilitate that, I also end up thinking that the Playstation brand would need to be rebooted. It can't just be a business as usual "Playstation 6/7/etc.".

2. I agree on the diminishing returns! Which leads to the next question: What's the marketing for a PS6, if/when there is one?

There is where random stuff gets spitballed. Like a couple of days ago, here I toss out the idea of going with a laptop style form factor.
Although maybe instead of 28-35 watts, you can maybe go chunkier and push up to the 40's or 50's? Ditch the keyboard and touchpad; maybe use that space to hold a couple of controllers.
But something like this wouldn't be a "Playstation X". But it also wouldn't be a "Playstation Portable" revival. Maybe a "Playstation Travel"?

There will probably never be a meaningful resolution bump moving forward (I assume all future consoles will just AI upscale from 1080p to 4k, 8k, 16k, etc and there is literally no point for resolutions beyond 32k), but until top of the line games can do full path tracing with little to no prebaked lighting, we are not at a point where Sony or Microsoft will slow down on console power development.

Fully dynamic and realistic lighting is very important for visuals.

 

[wolftendo]

Not to mention that same report expects -based on component deals mind you- more switches sold in 2023 than in 2022.

Guys, you don't understand, Drake will be released as a switch revision in marketing, with exclusive games and a cross-gen... Sorry I mean cross-device period, but will still be part of the Nintendo switch line. Kinda like the iPhone model.

The switch and all its revisions (Drake included) will be the first 300m+ selling device, I swear

Spoiler

am I in the bargaining phase yet?

 

[Mango]

Considering Nintendo’s comments on the OLED & the margin. I don’t think a price cut that low is in the future. Never mind base Switch being that undercuts Lite & I doubt they wanna go lower with the Lite.

I meant all of them.

Lite = $100
Base = $200
OLED = $250

Ive no reason for a Lite but I'd buy one just for collecting purposes at that price.

 

[Raccoon]

very curious to see how they separate the pratt oled from the 2020 mario switch

maybe something mushroom themed?

 

[LiC]

Since Nintendo is only now reportedly talking to suppliers then the presumption would be that they wouldn’t be ready to manufacture until 2024 at the earliest.

No one has actually justified this interpretation, though. For example, if they need four months of mass production (roughly what the original Switch had) ahead of a November launch, then they'd have 7 entire months to negotiate and kick off those contracts assuming they started today.

And I'll note again that the article didn't even draw a connection (or contrast) between the claim of supplier negotiations and the "industry-expected" H2 2024 window.

 

[YugamiSekai]

to be fully serious for a moment a price cut is definitely an obvious avenue to new user adoption

everyone has a threshold

Honestly, OLED going own to $300 or lower is the only thing that'd make me really less bummed out about a 2024 Switch 2 release.

 

[Hocot8]

Let’s just add the recent commentary again from Chris Dring about “no big games in 2023 after TotK”, and ask ourselves how they expect to hit these new numbers.

Not saying I believed the statement, but we have so many little morsels to layer on this shit sandwich already - why not add another?

That statement was and will remain a nothingburger of a statement. Not worth the attention we've given it because quite frankly, what qualifies as a big game? Nintendo could put out some casual game that sells 10M? Is that a big game?

 

[Serif]

Can someone explain to me why this recent article is proof we won't get new hardware this year? Cuz right now, @LiC is the only one I can count on for reliable, non-reactionary takes. Then again, that might be MY confirmation bias speaking.

Nintendo has started negotiating production lines of the next model ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
A revision targeted for late 2022 / early 2023 was cancelled ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nintendo increases their production forecast for the current Switch ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023
Nikkei opinion piece says a nebulous "the industry" expects H2 2024 because of the '23 forecast ⟹ _______ ⟹ there will most likely be no new hardware in 2023

I've consistently been unconvinced by the _______ that leads to these frequent conclusions. More detail or elaboration would persuade me, I just want like, an actual reason, that is weighted with the development evidence we have. Or more definitive events like a new Shield TV being announced or a Bloomberg article about devkits being recalled with no replacement.

to be fully serious for a moment a price cut is definitely an obvious avenue to new user adoption

everyone has a threshold

Damn Switch Lite needs to be $99 so I don't cry that much after a failed hall effect stick swap.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

No one has actually justified this interpretation, though. For example, if they need four months of mass production (roughly what the original Switch had) ahead of a November launch, then they'd have 7 entire months to negotiate and kick off those contracts assuming they started today.

And I'll note again that the article didn't even draw a connection (or contrast) between the claim of supplier negotiations and the "industry-expected" H2 2024 window.

Does it look like I’m justifying it. Im already skeptical of the article written due to what you put in the second paragraph. Im just explaining what the article is implying. Whether or not that is actually what is happening is another matter entirely.

I meant all of them.

Lite = $100
Base = $200
OLED = $250

Ive no reason for a Lite but I'd buy one just for collecting purposes at that price.

Yeah I don’t see those prices happening

 

[Wockio]

Nintendo is aware demand can only go down from the heights of 2020 and 2021. Im thinking its time for Nintendo Selects. Its a smarter move than a price cut as you avoid losing money on each unit sold, and a $30 to $40 reduction on major first party titles should prove to be a more enticing proposal than saving $50 on a one time console purchase, specially on a install base that just keeps buying games like the Switch. Bundle Switch Sports with non-OLED units while you are at it.

 

[Raccoon]

Damn Switch Lite needs to be $99 so I don't cry that much after a failed hall effect stick swap.

oh hey, mine came in today and put them in my joy-cons. ribbon cables are a bitch, moreso even than the OEM ones. they were also so far from calibrated that it took a few tries for the calibration process to work at all

I wouldn't want to do it in a lite simply because that would mean dealing with thermal paste for a god damned joystick but they should work. I couldn't manage to get the allegedly removable caps off though (to be fair I didn't try too hard lol)

 

[Shadowrun]

I meant all of them.

Lite = $100
Base = $200
OLED = $250

Ive no reason for a Lite but I'd buy one just for collecting purposes at that price.

Lite = $179
Base = $249
OLED = $300

 

[karmitt]

.

That statement was and will remain a nothingburger of a statement. Not worth the attention we've given it because quite frankly, what qualifies as a big game? Nintendo could put out some casual game that sells 10M? Is that a big game?

Please forgive me for the shitpost.

The discussion is an impenetrable tangled mess right now, and I just thought I could make it a little worse I guess :X

 

[Cuzizkool]

Is it likely that IF Drake is launched in 2025 (gag) it could at least be on 3nm, so that it doesn’t seem so old?

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Is it likely that IF Drake is launched in 2025 (gag) it could at least be on 3nm, so that it doesn’t seem so old?

It’s gonna be old regardless of what node they’ll be on so it’s just semantics at that point

 

[wolftendo]

Lmao just imagine if they actually meet this year (19M) and next fiscal year (21M) targets...
That means:
FY22: 107.65M (By March 31, 2022)
FY23: 126.65M (By March 31, 2023)
FY24: 147.65M (By March 31, 2024)

It almost sounds like they want to brute force their way into being the #1 best selling console considering that with such sales they would easily cross north of 158M sold (the estimated LTD of the PS2) by the end of FY25, which is when insiders are predicting the switch 2 will come out.

My prediction, and assuming no new next-gen hardware comes out until then, is that they can meet FY23 goal by itself, but after March they will need to release more games, a new significant revision (maybe the pro will actually release this time) and drastic price cuts. I mean, the PS2 took over 10 years to sell that much and I doubt at that point the device was being sold at MSRP...