• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Reader mode
Serif said:
Instead Drake will be used in a "Switch Super", with more features, different joy-con
Click to expand...
would this not require multiple years' worth of R&D on its own? like, even if these were already prototyped with some other chip, you would have to reconfigure and recertify stuff, not to mention send this hardware to devs so their games can implement these features
 
Hear me out. What if all this news -- product supposedly cancelled, hardware production ramping up -- is because there is a new device but they're just calling it "Nintendo Switch"?
 
Hosermess said:
Nintendo leaving April to July empty (a few more Kart tracks is meh) while Street Fighter 6, FF16, Diablo 4, Dead Island 2, Suicide Squad (and maybe a couple others not confirmed yet) are all released for Ps5/Xbox is probably not a good idea.
Click to expand...

If TotK gets delayed, I doubt there's any title Nintendo could put in that timeframe that wouldn't get badly overshadowed by Mario movie, FF16, Diablo 4, and SF6.
 
0
Apopheniac said:
would this not require multiple years' worth of R&D on its own? like, even if these were already prototyped with some other chip, you would have to reconfigure and recertify stuff, not to mention send this hardware to devs so their games can implement these features
Click to expand...
Sure. Though, it'd also depend on the feature and if it actually needs to be implemented or tested by devs or if its something like more IR sensors or cameras that aren't necessarily going to be used in third-party ports. Maybe they've already spent the R&D and moved ahead to use those on a Switch Super, I have no idea. I'm being really vague with the word 'feature' and anyways, not like the GBA had any more significant features than the GBC to differentiate its successor-ness.
 
0
KCannon said:
To be fair, unannounced cancellations are not very often reported. Drake by itself never had any concrete reports about to begin with despite its very likely existence. It was always sporadic leaks about possible components and kits that we needed to make sense of.

God knows how many projects Nintendo has shelved in their top secret cancellation closet. Maybe the whole story will emerge someday in the future.
Click to expand...
Just co-signing what @Hosermess already responded. The prototypes and internal projects Nintendo has shelved over the years are nothing comparable to what's being claimed about this hardware now.
 
Coco said:


Have fun, y'all.
Click to expand...


My last comment of the night

Nothing in the tracked sales data: NPD, Famitsu, Media Create, etcโ€ฆ supports an acceleration in hardware demand in excess of current forecasts. Including early Jan 2023 Famitsu data.

So I donโ€™t see why they would think 2023 would see demand increase by 10% instead of falling by 20%+โ€ฆeven with price cuts.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
My last comment of the night

Nothing in the tracked sales data: NPD, Famitsu, Media Create, etcโ€ฆ supports an acceleration in hardware demand in excess of current forecasts. Including early Jan 2023 Famitsu data.

So I donโ€™t see why they would think 2023 would see demand increase by 10% instead of falling by 20%+โ€ฆeven with price cuts.
Click to expand...

It feels like thereโ€™s some unknown(s) here for sure. Iโ€™m not going to assume what they are but this should be an interesting year
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
Anyone remember that smart, handsome, well endowed guy who said chip oversupply is coming while small peepee public company CEOs predicted the chip shortage lasting until 2024?
Click to expand...
what
 
karmitt said:
It feels like thereโ€™s some unknown(s) here for sure. Iโ€™m not going to assume what they are but this should be an interesting year
Click to expand...
Yeah I don't know. A supply increase doesn't make sense but we have no clue what they are doing so whatever. I don't know if they just want to have a good amount of switch units to push when they make the inevitable shift from producing switch consoles to switch 2. I'm no knowledgeable in this area, just spitballing to try and make sense lol. But I do know Nintendo is weird and that's all I can point to for this haha.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
My last comment of the night

Nothing in the tracked sales data: NPD, Famitsu, Media Create, etcโ€ฆ supports an acceleration in hardware demand in excess of current forecasts. Including early Jan 2023 Famitsu data.

So I donโ€™t see why they would think 2023 would see demand increase by 10% instead of falling by 20%+โ€ฆeven with price cuts.
Click to expand...
I mentioned this upthread, could be ordering for new hardware. if the launch is early 2024, FY 2024 ends March. They could follow same pattern as switch, announce late 2023, launch in March. I assume manufacturing needs to start late 2023 and parts ordered before then, it would fit and would not be outside what we know.

We know mochi had sources at Samsung based on his OLED reporting. OLED screens would be one component Nintendo could reuse on the new Switch without the source at the supplier knowing what the extra orders are for.
 
0
Here's a silly question that might be better suited for InstallBase (but I don't have an account), but what do Switch sales currently look like when launch aligned with PS2? I can only find Zhuge's chart from 2020

Or, if at all possible to do it myself, where could I go to find these historical sales data points of consoles?
 
0
I wonder if Nintendo ramping up Switch production actually makes any sense right now, especially if the successor is right around the corner.
 
0
Raccoon said:
Nintendo: we've gotta ramp up production for the tens of people who don't own our thing yet
Click to expand...
Ya know, I'm trying to think now of literally anyone I know, enthusiasts or otherwise, who don't already own a Switch.

And all I'm coming up with is my 77-year old father.

though even he technically has one in his household, so...
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
My last comment of the night

Nothing in the tracked sales data: NPD, Famitsu, Media Create, etcโ€ฆ supports an acceleration in hardware demand in excess of current forecasts. Including early Jan 2023 Famitsu data.

So I donโ€™t see why they would think 2023 would see demand increase by 10% instead of falling by 20%+โ€ฆeven with price cuts.
Click to expand...
Unless, of course, that number includes a new model ;)
 
Concernt said:
Unless, of course, that number includes a new model ;)
Click to expand...

8ce.jpg
 
Z-Z0 said:
Going from Late22/Early23 to Late24/Early25 is quite the jump.
If it's 2 years away, I honestly hope they cancel Drake and work on a new chip.
8nm PS4 level SoC in 2025 when PS6 and XSX2 will release 3 years later is laughable.
Click to expand...
totally Agree with what you said and i think that the PS6 and the next gen Xbox will come even earlier cause if the switch 2 will be available in early 2025 the PS5 and Series X/S will be in the market for 4.5 years and i don't think their successor will take more than 18 to 24 months more at most after the switch 2 !! even the current switch released 3.5 years after the PS4/`Xbone , i can't understand releasing the Switch 2 more late by a year in the gen lifecycle ... even if Nintendo doubled the performance of the chip in 2025 in every aspect and it becomes 6-8 T-Flops , i am wondering how it will Fare against PS6 which will share more than 4 years in the market with Switch 2 and which should be around 70+ T-Flops ??
 
0
$150 teevee only Switch, baybee.

No dock, no battery, no screen, hell it might not even come with a controller to hit that price point! But when it's the cheapest option, it's something to outperform a Lite in terms of sales.

Also no price cuts to any other existing model because fuck you
 
Brofield said:
$150 teevee only Switch, baybee.

No dock, no battery, no screen, hell it might not even come with a controller to hit that price point! But when it's the cheapest option, it's something to outperform a Lite in terms of sales.

Also no price cuts to any other existing model because fuck you
Click to expand...
Calcio lives.

But I expect 99.99-129.99 with a Pro Controller, it's cheaper to produce than two Joy-Con

And for it, like Wii Mini and GBMicro before it, to come out AFTER Switch 2.
 
Concernt said:
Calcio lives.

But I expect 99.99-129.99 with a Pro Controller, it's cheaper to produce than two Joy-Con

And for it, like Wii Mini and GBMicro before it, to come out AFTER Switch 2.
Click to expand...
Hey if it comes out after Switch 2, I'll be pleasantly surprised but after today I'm realizing I'm not as keen to hold my breath much longer ๐Ÿ˜‹

I'd be surprised if it could hit as low as $130, though. Most of the teardown price sheets I can find are from 2017 (let alone in the last year or so), so I imagine the cost has fallen significantly, but nothing seems to confirm the cost of manufacturing the Pro Controller (although each Joy Con is about ~$45 each). How much does it cost to build a pro controller, roughly?
 
Brofield said:
Hey if it comes out after Switch 2, I'll be pleasantly surprised but after today I'm realizing I'm not as keen to hold my breath much longer ๐Ÿ˜‹

I'd be surprised if it could hit as low as $130, though. Most of the teardown price sheets I can find are from 2017 (let alone in the last year or so), so I imagine the cost has fallen significantly, but nothing seems to confirm the cost of manufacturing the Pro Controller (although each Joy Con is about ~$45 each). How much does it cost to build a pro controller, roughly?
Click to expand...
After today's what?

I mean absolutely no ill will towards any insiders or people who trust them, but from my perspective, I don't see any new facts that would change the timeline we've been working with for oh-so long. The closest thing to a factual statement is that production is increasing, which would track with a new console release.

Make no mistake, the new device IS a Nintendo Switch system. It shares components, assembly lines, marketing, games, even the- I'm not sure I should say this- but likely even the logo.

The fact is that the new Nintendo SOC is in fabrication, production seems to be ramping up, thereby corroborating factory worker reports from earlier in the month about assembly line volume increases. If that comes to pass that corrobates even more of what they've said; the new Switch's components being in test manufacturing in 2022 and final moulds prepared starting November 2022.

The fact is, it costs money to manufacture and store parts and SOCs.

The fact is, no console this far into its lifespan has seen such a dramatic RISE in demand in its 7th year.

From my perspective, and that's not one of a developer, but one of marketing and communication, that doesn't make sense UNLESS that increased demand and production is BECAUSE of that newly fabricated chip.
 
This whole situation still feels like a ridiculously cruel joke to me. It's just unfathomable that Nintendo basically just isn't moving on from the Switch at all. Like I'm waiting for someone to pinch me and I wake up and the Switch 2 is finally here with some what modern visuals...
 
Concernt said:
After today's what?

I mean absolutely no ill will towards any insiders or people who trust them, but from my perspective, I don't see any new facts that would change the timeline we've been working with for oh-so long. The closest thing to a factual statement is that production is increasing, which would track with a new console release.

Make no mistake, the new device IS a Nintendo Switch system. It shares components, assembly lines, marketing, games, even the- I'm not sure I should say this- but likely even the logo.

The fact is that the new Nintendo SOC is in fabrication, production seems to be ramping up, thereby corroborating factory worker reports from earlier in the month about assembly line volume increases. If that comes to pass that corrobates even more of what they've said; the new Switch's components being in test manufacturing in 2022 and final moulds prepared starting November 2022.

The fact is, it costs money to manufacture and store parts and SOCs.

The fact is, no console this far into its lifespan has seen such a dramatic RISE in demand in its 7th year.

From my perspective, and that's not one of a developer, but one of marketing and communication, that doesn't make sense UNLESS that increased demand and production is BECAUSE of that newly fabricated chip.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that does all make sense too, and if I'm being truthful I'm not completely giving up hope until the end of March 31 if we don't have so much as an announcement of an announcement. I'm just personally shielding myself from the roller coaster of speculation from that point onward because I don't want to involve myself with any discourse of "but this game would look so much better on newer hardware" or "This game is too good for base Switch, it has to be on a better console!", because even dealing with it in my own friend circles is getting exhausting haha

I'm not sure how this increase of production of Switch's will be reconciled, whether there is a price drop, or there's an expectation of the Mario movie bump, or if they weirdly assume a direct sequel to BOTW is what's going to move new systems. I'll be fascinated to see what Nintendo has up their sleeves to justify another 20m right when they hit 120m+ lifetime sold next investor's meeting, just as I expect to some degree they're gonna find demand supremely underwhelming if they're making bets on the wrong horse. At this point, I only know my time riding this speculation train is coming up to its last stop; for my own sake I know I gotta get off before I really lose my last threads of sanity trying to read tea leaves of Nintendo's plans ๐Ÿ˜‹

I'd almost be more content if new hardware were to be announced now and slightly underpowered, rather than having to wait until 2025+ for whatever T239 is supposed to be.
 
Concernt said:
After today's what?

I mean absolutely no ill will towards any insiders or people who trust them, but from my perspective, I don't see any new facts that would change the timeline we've been working with for oh-so long. The closest thing to a factual statement is that production is increasing, which would track with a new console release.

Make no mistake, the new device IS a Nintendo Switch system. It shares components, assembly lines, marketing, games, even the- I'm not sure I should say this- but likely even the logo.

The fact is that the new Nintendo SOC is in fabrication, production seems to be ramping up, thereby corroborating factory worker reports from earlier in the month about assembly line volume increases. If that comes to pass that corrobates even more of what they've said; the new Switch's components being in test manufacturing in 2022 and final moulds prepared starting November 2022.

The fact is, it costs money to manufacture and store parts and SOCs.

The fact is, no console this far into its lifespan has seen such a dramatic RISE in demand in its 7th year.

From my perspective, and that's not one of a developer, but one of marketing and communication, that doesn't make sense UNLESS that increased demand and production is BECAUSE of that newly fabricated chip.
Click to expand...
I'm with you on this one.
However, maybe Nintendo is just very bullish on some other factors.

We've seen TV series, such as The Witcher, renew interest in the respective games and provide a nice bump in sales. Maybe they're counting on the Mario Movie to bring a lot of new customers.

Maybe they think TotK will bring a lot of new first-timers. TotK will sell well, but mostly to existing owners IMO.

They may be forecasting great sales from special edition OLED models. They do have data about other editions. It's probably not bringing new customers, but a sale is a sale.

The may have a few cards up their sleeves for H2 in terms of software, first or third-party.

A significant price cut would certainly sell a lot more consoles. It would make sense to go all out on current models before dropping a successor. I'd say a $150 Lite, a discontinued base model and a $275 OLED model would be very compelling for a lot of late adopters.

Still hoping for new hardware though.
 
Cybergatuno said:
I'm with you on this one.
However, maybe Nintendo is just very bullish on some other factors.

We've seen TV series, such as The Witcher, renew interest in the respective games and provide a nice bump in sales. Maybe they're counting on the Mario Movie to bring a lot of new customers.

Maybe they think TotK will bring a lot of new first-timers. TotK will sell well, but mostly to existing owners IMO.

They may be forecasting great sales from special edition OLED models. They do have data about other editions. It's probably not bringing new customers, but a sale is a sale.

The may have a few cards up their sleeves for H2 in terms of software, first or third-party.

A significant price cut would certainly sell a lot more consoles. It would make sense to go all out on current models before dropping a successor. I'd say a $150 Lite, a discontinued base model and a $275 OLED model would be very compelling for a lot of late adopters.

Still hoping for new hardware though.
Click to expand...
While possible, you have to consider where those price sensitive consumers have been all this time. Lite has been 199.99 for years, and Switch has continued to be the cheapest console still getting new games. A 150 dollar Lite has been available on the used and refurb market for some time now, as has a sub 275 dollar Nintendo Switch (V1/2).

Without a new, substantially cheaper product, I don't see how a price drop could really benefit them when it's already the choice for the bottom end of the market.

Price sensitive buyers also tend to be frugal buyers, and that means they would tend to be the type refurbished and used consoles appeal to. I just don't see a market segment that feels the need to buy "NEW" but is too price sensitive to buy a Lite.
 
Nintendos own analysts wouldn't make such a bullish prediction on year 7 sales if they didn't have something up their sleeve. Price drops, new titles etc are not going to give a 10% uptick in sales during the decline phase of the consoles life. The only thing I can see is new hardware being considered switch sales. 10 million traditional switch sales plus 10 million switch 2 could be plausible, 3 mil for launch in September then just above 1 mil per month on average up to end of fiscal year.
 
If they want to go out with their Guns blazing at New hardware release, they'll need a strong software line up. And a sustained one, because they know the effect of draughts on the schedule.
So, obviously, switch last year won't be a software powerhouse, as they'll need to prepare for the next wave, which will also take probably more time to develop.
With that in mind, they wouldn't be bullish as they are now. In other instances, they had no issue saying to investors it was a transition year to explain bearish forecasts.

I'm probably pessimistic, but if Bloomberg's reporting end up being true, no New hardware before deep inside FY 25, probably holiday 2024.

That would be a bad move, as switch will have lost all momentum and will probably suffer from the same issue the wii had in the general audience at the end of its life, a tainted brand perception where the name is associated with poor graphics, bad ports and shovelware.
It would have overstayed its welcome.

But hey, we still don't know, so let's keep an open mind and wait for the annual shareholder meeting that will clear a lot of things.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Nintendos own analysts wouldn't make such a bullish prediction on year 7 sales if they didn't have something up their sleeve. Price drops, new titles etc are not going to give a 10% uptick in sales during the decline phase of the consoles life. The only thing I can see is new hardware being considered switch sales. 10 million traditional switch sales plus 10 million switch 2 could be plausible, 3 mil for launch in September then just above 1 mil per month on average up to end of fiscal year.
Click to expand...
This.

I think they're about ready to introduce a new member of the "Nintendo Switch Family of Systems".
 
+1 year waiting for Mochi to speak thinking he would be into something big due to criticism (even if he was right and something got shelved) and we get this...

Pain.

They are always conservative predicting sales and after last 2 years it doesnt make any sense...
 
0
I still canโ€™t see a PS6/XsX2 coming until 2030, they have basically had 2 lost years due to covid where stock has been low and not many titles have been exclusive to take advantage of the power these current machines have. That could work in Switch Nextโ€™s favour as if that comes out next year with the feature set thatโ€™s rumour it could mean it wonโ€™t be old hat until after year 5? By that I mean it wonโ€™t launch and have seen 2 more power consoles (PS4 Pro/PS5) by the same point in its lifetime like Switch has seen.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Nintendos own analysts wouldn't make such a bullish prediction on year 7 sales if they didn't have something up their sleeve. Price drops, new titles etc are not going to give a 10% uptick in sales during the decline phase of the consoles life. The only thing I can see is new hardware being considered switch sales. 10 million traditional switch sales plus 10 million switch 2 could be plausible, 3 mil for launch in September then just above 1 mil per month on average up to end of fiscal year.
Click to expand...
Nintendo Switch TV, holiday 2023.
Exact same hardware and performance as Switch, but docked only and 100$.
 
0
So if we assume we will get a successor in late 24/early 25, could we see Drake on a smaller node (5nm) if Nintendo decided to plan accordingly at some point early last year?

Also is there any other technology (screen etc) that becomes more probable?
 
thegodsend said:
So if we assume we will get a successor in late 24/early 25, could we see Drake on a smaller node (5nm) if Nintendo decided to plan accordingly at some point early last year?

Also is there any other technology (screen etc) that becomes more probable?
Click to expand...
5nm Drake was possible LAST year... It would be a disappointment in 2025. If we get a 5nm Drake, it's this year/Nintendo's next Fiscal Year.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited by a moderator:


Back
Top Bottom