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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Hush said:
Im going to point out the obvious in all the current chatter, we have yet to say a running gameplay demonstration of Tears of the Kingdom. I have never seen any game less than four months away now be so secretive with the footage shown of it. Especially for a direct sequel. So I still firmly believe that TotK has something to do with a Switch 2 presentation that will be before the game launches
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I’m glad to see this argument pop here again. I’ve been having this feeling for very long and, while I’m not getting my hopes up for a 2023 launch (much less in May), there are many reasons why this specific point seems very suspicious.

Ending the last Direct with an even shorter teaser than the previous ones, especially when finally revealing the name and launch day… That’s weird.
I know they must be keeping a lot of stuff secret regarding the game, and the marketing for BotW was a good choice imo, but for a direct sequel I’d imagine a similar marketing approach or even a bit more actually but definitely not so much less, especially so close to launch.
 
oldpuck said:
And Richard points out that "4K" is less of an issue than "looking good on 4K screens" as long as Series S is around pushing good looking 1080p gaming. And all of them agree (with Alex being the non-tendo fan) that the Switch's concept and form factor hold up.
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I will say, here we talk a lot of 1440p - 2160p targets, but if we're willing to accept 1080p output for most third party targets, then I think the door is opened wider for visual features. especially if devs target 540p internally. 4A did this with the Series S version of Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition. I have no idea how a hypothetical 360p to 720p would look on some games, but in my limited testing, it's very possible though some issues might arise
 
L_esson said:
I’m glad to see this argument pop here again. I’ve been having this feeling for very long and, while I’m not getting my hopes up for a 2023 launch (much less in May), there are many reasons why this specific point seems very suspicious.

Ending the last Direct with an even shorter teaser than the previous ones, especially when finally revealing the name and launch day… That’s weird.
I know they must be keeping a lot of stuff secret regarding the game, and the marketing for BotW was a good choice imo, but for a direct sequel I’d imagine a similar marketing approach or even a bit more actually but definitely not so much less, especially so close to launch.
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Yeah, and given the fact that BotW was already one of the most ambitious games on the Switch and that sequels typically try to push the boundaries and scale of the last entry, it would seem like showing the game running on the new platform would allow people to really see what they were going for. I am not saying they will launch the same day either, but it could end with a ¨ToTK next gen update will be available at launch for all owners of the game¨ in the presentation
 
Skittzo said:
What are you referring to here
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Just what I wrote: when DF talked about hardware refresh canceled, it wasn't referring to the T239 SoC, since now they talk about the console with this chip coming out in a year. Which to many of us had seemed obvious right away.
 
Eclissi said:
Just what I wrote: when DF talked about hardware refresh canceled, it wasn't referring to the T239 SoC, since now they talk about the console with this chip coming out in a year. Which to many of us had seemed obvious right away.
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The SoC is a chip, the refresh that was supposedly cancelled was a console that uses a chip. Nobody claimed that SoC was ever cancelled.

And as I said many times now it is likely they were referring to a Mariko refresh planned for 2019 being cancelled, because that's something we've heard of before.
 
L_esson said:
I’m glad to see this argument pop here again. I’ve been having this feeling for very long and, while I’m not getting my hopes up for a 2023 launch (much less in May), there are many reasons why this specific point seems very suspicious.

Ending the last Direct with an even shorter teaser than the previous ones, especially when finally revealing the name and launch day… That’s weird.
I know they must be keeping a lot of stuff secret regarding the game, and the marketing for BotW was a good choice imo, but for a direct sequel I’d imagine a similar marketing approach or even a bit more actually but definitely not so much less, especially so close to launch.
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I think they haven't had the opportunity to show it the way they want to. An ordinary September Direct just wasn't the context where they wanted to do an in-depth look. And the upcoming Direct in the next month may not be either. That doesn't mean there has to be anything to do with hardware. Maybe they're planning to do a TotK-only presentation outside the normal Direct schedule.
 
LiC said:
It's funny to me that kopite was the first to get people talking about T239 and a connection to Nintendo, but he's had zero information on it ever since then, while we've gotten a deluge of info from other sources.

It's also funny that public L4T commits referencing T239 started in April 2021, and the first one with real info came before that June tweet, but nobody noticed them until way later.
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Were these public? I genuinely don't know. These dates would come along as part of the commit history, but Nvidia could have hidden them until they tagged Jetpack 35.1 or whatever and publicly distributed that source.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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Skittzo said:
The SoC is a chip, the refresh that was supposedly cancelled was a console that uses a chip. Nobody claimed that SoC was ever cancelled.

And as I said many times now it is likely they were referring to a Mariko refresh planned for 2019 being cancelled, because that's something we've heard of before.
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Why would they make a specific upclocked Mariko device, when every Mariko device is capable?

Imo the thing that was probably "canned" or more specifically decided against was higher clock profiles on every device with Mariko.
 
Skittzo said:
The SoC is a chip, the refresh that was supposedly cancelled was a console that uses a chip. Nobody claimed that SoC was ever cancelled.

And as I said many times now it is likely they were referring to a Mariko refresh planned for 2019 being cancelled, because that's something we've heard of before.
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Of course, but there was a widespread hypothesis that DF was referring to Drake (console with T239 chip, I know the difference we'll 😉).
 
Eclissi said:
Of course, but there was a widespread hypothesis that DF was referring to Drake (console with T239 chip, I know the difference we'll 😉).
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That hypothesis didn't make much sense to me, they talked about T239 for the Switch 2 in the same podcast John mentioned a mid gen refresh being shelved.
 
LiC said:
It's funny to me that kopite was the first to get people talking about T239 and a connection to Nintendo, but he's had zero information on it ever since then, while we've gotten a deluge of info from other sources.

It's also funny that public L4T commits referencing T239 started in April 2021, and the first one with real info came before that June tweet, but nobody noticed them until way later.
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I do wonder when it comes to kopite7kimi that maybe it has more to do with not wanting the attention that the Nintendo related information brought to his front door. Sure the Nvidia gpu architecture leaks over the years already put him on the map, but the amount of quotes he got across the internet was astounding.
 
Quoted by: LiC
1
Hermii said:
Why would they make a specific upclocked Mariko device, when every Mariko device is capable?

Imo the thing that was probably "canned" or more specifically decided against was higher clock profiles on every device with Mariko.
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That's almost exactly what I'm referring to here. Instead of the Lite and the silent battery life revision it would be the Lite and the Mariko based pro.
 
oldpuck said:
Were these public? I genuinely don't know. These dates would come along as part of the commit history, but Nvidia could have hidden them until they tagged Jetpack 35.1 or whatever and publicly distributed that source.
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I... don't actually know either. You're right that the timestamps are from the original commits (see Nvidia's public git here), but I assumed it would show up in some way if they were integrated to OE4T at a different date and time, but I guess you wouldn't be able to tell if the entire repo was imported from an already completed Git release. And it looks like Nvidia only released 35.1 last August, so yeah, this branch couldn't have even existed when those commits were made. Never mind, then.

Edit: Although there's no way for us to tell how long Nvidia's version of it was public, it's reasonable to assume it was only done for that tag upon release.
 
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Skittzo said:
That's almost exactly what I'm referring to here. Instead of the Lite and the silent battery life revision it would be the Lite and the Mariko based pro.
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Yea, no. Not really sold on that being what DF was talking about and it's most definitely not what Nate has been talking about.
 
Hermii said:
Yea, no. Not really sold on that being what DF was talking about and it's most definitely not what Nate has been talking about.
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Yeah obviously not what Nate is referring to but I don't see why it doesn't fit what DF was referring to.
 
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Hush said:
, but it could end with a ¨ToTK next gen update will be available at launch for all owners of the game¨ in the presentation
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That would be the surest way to have a catastrophic launch for Zelda as many people would just wait for the new console to release. I know I would.
 
Hush said:
Im going to point out the obvious in all the current chatter, we have yet to say a running gameplay demonstration of Tears of the Kingdom. I have never seen any game less than four months away now be so secretive with the footage shown of it. Especially for a direct sequel. So I still firmly believe that TotK has something to do with a Switch 2 presentation that will be before the game launches
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Ocams razor:
the last direct was to far to start showing more, but to close to not show something. then why not show between then and now?
a) other games to promote (we have seen that nintendo switched to really short promotion periods since beginning of the pandemic)
b) there was no good point to show it, and they did not want to show it during the GA for whatever reason or just have a twitter direct, so they sad to themselves: f* it, lets just wait for the next direct for a blowout
there is a chance for a switch 2, i had that hope myself, but its not that weird to still not have to much info, especially knowing that the developers thought that the marketing already showed to much pre release for the first game... one of the core virtues of those games is the exploration and finding things for yourself, showing a lot kinda goes against that.
 
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Hermii said:
If they really were prioritising battery life, they would not have gone for 12SM on 8nm.

Because if that is the node they are going for, its literally impossible to have good battery life.
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Just some food for thought, but what if they are prioritizing ways to avoid heating up the system?
 
I’m not especially confident in anything this year anymore, but I enjoy the optimism in here.

Dekuman said:
DF doesn't think it's coming this year
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Switch could see a great year this year with Zelda and other titles, let’s say hypothetically flat YoY, and it shouldn’t have any bearing on the successor conversation. I would imagine the actual date would have been set based on much earlier (years ago) projections of when the system might see a downturn, along with hardware development timelines. Right? I’m not sure why Digital Foundry would put so much stock in sales as the main factor unless they believe Switch is right on target compared to Nintendos internal projections. I’d have expected Nintendo to be slightly more risk averse on their timing, as to avoid a steep drop off in interest. Sorry, arguing with myself a bit here, but Zelda’s 2023 positioning could be there precisely to mitigate any 2023 drop off, allowing time for an early 2024 launch

Hush said:
Im going to point out the obvious in all the current chatter, we have yet to say a running gameplay demonstration of Tears of the Kingdom. I have never seen any game less than four months away now be so secretive with the footage shown of it. Especially for a direct sequel. So I still firmly believe that TotK has something to do with a Switch 2 presentation that will be before the game launches
Click to expand...

I hate being on this side of the discussion, because damn do I want the system soon, but I really don’t think Nintendo’s secrecy should be taken as anything other than confidence in the product and knowledge of consumer interest being sky high already. They could start marketing in earnest from March if they wanted to and still see success.
 
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Zeroth said:
Just some food for thought, but what if they are prioritizing ways to avoid heating up the system?
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The only way to do that, is to use less power.

The way to do that is to balance chip size/ clock speed and node to get ideal performance per watt. A 12sm chip on 8nm would not yield good battery life no matter what you do. There's a limit to how low you can go before the power savings are minimal.
 
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Listening to the DF Direct and reading other conversations, I only see 3 scenarios for Drake's release date.
  1. Announcement within the next month-ish, launch with or near Tears of the Kingdom.
  2. Announcement at E3, Holiday Season launch.
  3. Announcement Early 2024, Launch H1 2024.
Some think Nintendo might mirror the Switch launch with a reveal in Late 2023, and release in Q1 2024 but I don't believe that makes sense. The Switch launch was different, the Wii U was essentially dead, they had already announced that the NX was launching in March 2017, the Switch reveal in October did very little to damage their holiday sales as very few were planning on buying a Wii U at that point. Switch however, while declining, is still a very well selling system. I don't see Nintendo's plans including "let's launch in March to mirror the Switch because it'd be fun" or assuming the Switch would be in a similar position to the Wii U by Q4 of this year. I don't see Nintendo making any kind of announcements that would hurt their holiday sales in what could be the last prominent fiscal year for Switch sales, they're going to try and maximize those sales.

I've also seen some holding issue with an E3 time announcement, holiday release based on whether they feel it will hurt initial sales of Tears of the Kingdom. They may want to give it more room to breathe on the Switch, but I would anticipate most people wanting to play at launch. If reviews are very positive and a new console is not announced by then, the 'damage' of showing off a possible next gen version of Tears of the Kingdom would likely be fairly minimal.

In my mind, if it's coming this year, it will be announced this year, if it's coming next year, it will be announced next year. I see very little reason to think otherwise, but I'm open to my mindset being challenged.
 
I wonder what sort of launch line up this new console will have, if they still support Switch then we know there will likely be no Switch 2 exclusives, just performance improvements in first party releases.

I expect it to launch with a big Mario as it looks like it won’t be coming with Zelda, could have some exclusives from third parties, possibly an Elden Ring port?
 
ITSMILNER said:
I wonder what sort of launch line up this new console will have, if they still support Switch then we know there will likely be no Switch 2 exclusives, just performance improvements in first party releases.

I expect it to launch with a big Mario as it looks like it won’t be coming with Zelda, could have some exclusives from third parties, possibly an Elden Ring port?
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Would it be crazy to expect Final Fantasy 7 Remake?
 
Boxle said:
Listening to the DF Direct and reading other conversations, I only see 3 scenarios for Drake's release date.
  1. Announcement within the next month-ish, launch with or near Tears of the Kingdom.
  2. Announcement at E3, Holiday Season launch.
  3. Announcement Early 2024, Launch H1 2024.
Some think Nintendo might mirror the Switch launch with a reveal in Late 2023, and release in Q1 2024 but I don't believe that makes sense. The Switch launch was different, the Wii U was essentially dead, they had already announced that the NX was launching in March 2017, the Switch reveal in October did very little to damage their holiday sales as very few were planning on buying a Wii U at that point. Switch however, while declining, is still a very well selling system. I don't see Nintendo's plans including "let's launch in March to mirror the Switch because it'd be fun" or assuming the Switch would be in a similar position to the Wii U by Q4 of this year. I don't see Nintendo making any kind of announcements that would hurt their holiday sales in what could be the last prominent fiscal year for Switch sales, they're going to try and maximize those sales.

I've also seen some holding issue with an E3 time announcement, holiday release based on whether they feel it will hurt initial sales of Tears of the Kingdom. They may want to give it more room to breathe on the Switch, but I would anticipate most people wanting to play at launch. If reviews are very positive and a new console is not announced by then, the 'damage' of showing off a possible next gen version of Tears of the Kingdom would likely be fairly minimal.

In my mind, if it's coming this year, it will be announced this year, if it's coming next year, it will be announced next year. I see very little reason to think otherwise, but I'm open to my mindset being challenged.
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Mix
 
Dekuman said:
DF doesn't think it's coming this year
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I'm trying to parse this... so "2023 is looking unlikely", then they provide two ways of looking at sales that lead to different conclusions. Why is 2023 unlikely if they admit that sales are down year-on-year and the Switch is in a period of managed decline, which would strengthen the business case for a successor? They admit their Q1 2024 guess is a gut feeling, which I also think is possible, but I disagree they'd announce it this year and kneecap their holiday sales. Seems like there should be more reasons given here on why this entire year is ruled out.

Rich already discussed a while back how the Linux commits for T239 indicate a manufacturing timeline, I wish that were presented here as a counterargument, as that information is publicly accessible and to me, remains one of the stronger reasons to believe in a 2023 release.
 
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I think one benefit of launching Drake with BOTW would be that there’s a better looking alternative to the Switch version.

It doesn’t matter how good the game is: There’s always a chance that people are gonna criticize resolution, framerate etc. and judging by the trailers, I don’t think it has improved greatly from BOTW. However, if there’s any kind of better looking version, reviewers are gonna use that.

I still think it’s holiday or Q1 2024 though…
 
Serif said:
I'm trying to parse this... so "2023 is looking unlikely", then they provide two ways of looking at sales that lead to different conclusions. Why is 2023 unlikely if they admit that sales are down year-on-year and the Switch is in a period of managed decline, which would strengthen the business case for a successor? They admit their Q1 2024 guess is a gut feeling, which I also think is possible, but I disagree they'd announce it this year and kneecap their holiday sales. Seems like there should be more reasons given here on why this entire year is ruled out.

Rich already discussed a while back how the Linux commits for T239 indicate a manufacturing timeline, I wish that were presented here as a counterargument, as that information is publicly accessible and to me, remains one of the stronger reasons to believe in a 2023 release.
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I'm struggling to find data on this, but isn't launching a new device the year after the first notable decline in sales historically common? There was a minor decrease in PS4 sales in 2018, but 2019 was the first year there was a notable drop, and then the PS5 came out Holiday 2020.

If Switch sales dropped 25% in 2022, then wouldn't Holiday 2023 for a new device be fairly typical? Especially so when you consider that would make it the longest tenured Nintendo console ever.

Also, it's strange to argue that 2023 is unlikely but then say that Q1 2024 is likely. It's a 2-3 month difference.
 
Boxle said:
Listening to the DF Direct and reading other conversations, I only see 3 scenarios for Drake's release date.
  1. Announcement within the next month-ish, launch with or near Tears of the Kingdom.
  2. Announcement at E3, Holiday Season launch.
  3. Announcement Early 2024, Launch H1 2024.
Some think Nintendo might mirror the Switch launch with a reveal in Late 2023, and release in Q1 2024 but I don't believe that makes sense. The Switch launch was different, the Wii U was essentially dead, they had already announced that the NX was launching in March 2017, the Switch reveal in October did very little to damage their holiday sales as very few were planning on buying a Wii U at that point. Switch however, while declining, is still a very well selling system. I don't see Nintendo's plans including "let's launch in March to mirror the Switch because it'd be fun" or assuming the Switch would be in a similar position to the Wii U by Q4 of this year. I don't see Nintendo making any kind of announcements that would hurt their holiday sales in what could be the last prominent fiscal year for Switch sales, they're going to try and maximize those sales.

I've also seen some holding issue with an E3 time announcement, holiday release based on whether they feel it will hurt initial sales of Tears of the Kingdom. They may want to give it more room to breathe on the Switch, but I would anticipate most people wanting to play at launch. If reviews are very positive and a new console is not announced by then, the 'damage' of showing off a possible next gen version of Tears of the Kingdom would likely be fairly minimal.

In my mind, if it's coming this year, it will be announced this year, if it's coming next year, it will be announced next year. I see very little reason to think otherwise, but I'm open to my mindset being challenged.
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I feel like since we think that it'll be a new generation, they won't have a short reveal to release cycle. New generations are often announced way in advance, they're being mentioned in shareholders meetings... They're not surprises dumped one day on Youtube and released three months later. For instance they didn't play coy with the 3DS because the DS was still selling or anything, they announced it well in advance.

What is the shortest announcement to release cycle for a new Nintendo generation? I don't even think one ever happened only inside a calendar year. Not convinced it'll be different this time.
 
NineTailSage said:
I do wonder when it comes to kopite7kimi that maybe it has more to do with not wanting the attention that the Nintendo related information brought to his front door. Sure the Nvidia gpu architecture leaks over the years already put him on the map, but the amount of quotes he got across the internet was astounding.
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It's possible. Especially since, with him being basically the only source of early Nvidia info, it's not impossible that most of what he leaks is tacitly accepted or even encouraged by Nvidia. But revealing information for something belonging to an Nvidia customer would be another matter.
 
Charamiwa said:
I feel like since we think that it'll be a new generation, they won't have a short reveal to release cycle. New generations are often announced way in advance, they're being mentioned in shareholders meetings... They're not surprises dumped one day on Youtube and released three months later. For instance they didn't play coy with the 3DS because the DS was still selling or anything, they announced it well in advance.

What is the shortest announcement to release cycle for a new Nintendo generation? I don't even think one ever happened only inside a calendar year. Not convinced it'll be different this time.
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Switch was October to March, just 5 months.

Times have changed since the DS era, they have no reason to do a longer marketing cycle with something similar enough to the Switch.
 
I genuinely can't fathom the idea of it being announced, revealed, and released in less than four months, but the optimism is commendable at the very least.

I think, based on gut feeling, that the most likely scenario is next year.
 
Serif said:
I'm trying to parse this... so "2023 is looking unlikely", then they provide two ways of looking at sales that lead to different conclusions. Why is 2023 unlikely if they admit that sales are down year-on-year and the Switch is in a period of managed decline, which would strengthen the business case for a successor?
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That's because Rich and John don't come to the same conclusions. Rich explicitly says he thinks 2023 is possible, John is dubious. The sales numbers are like the performance numbers - they're not predicting Nintendo behavior, they're gaming out Nintendo's best move, independent of whether or not they think Nintendo is on track to deliver.
 
Mango said:
I genuinely can't fathom the idea of it being announced, revealed, and released in less than four months, but the optimism is commendable at the very least.
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The way I imagine it is similar to the Switch January presentation -> March release timeframe. The January presentation gave an in-depth look at the hardware and all the relevant details like pricing, controllers, launch games, region-free, etc.

The October trailer was the true reveal of the 'Switch concept', but I doubt they need to re-explain what a Switch is. I think an initial teaser or Tweet for a next-gen presentation, followed by something like the January presentation and then a few months 'til release may be all we need.

I agree that it seems like an accelerated timeframe. I even remember back then, some folks saying they were cutting it a bit close. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how they'll pull this off.

oldpuck said:
That's because Rich and John don't come to the same conclusions. Rich explicitly says he thinks 2023 is possible, John is dubious. The sales numbers are like the performance numbers - they're not predicting Nintendo behavior, they're gaming out Nintendo's best move, independent of whether or not they think Nintendo is on track to deliver.
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I know this, I am referring specifically to the article Rich wrote and the argument presented in that paragraph. "2023 is looking unlikely, there are two ways of looking at the sales" confuses me, as the arguments 'cancel each other out' and it doesn't lead immediately to the initial conclusion. "2023 may be unlikely, here's one reason based on the sales. On the flip side, this other perspective suggests it could be on the table" would be clearer to me.
 
Skittzo said:
Switch was October to March, just 5 months.

Times have changed since the DS era, they have no reason to do a longer marketing cycle with something similar enough to the Switch.
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It won't have the lengthy cycle of the NX/Switch, but it's announcement will likely be pre-empted by comments at an investor briefing.
 
Selarmor said:
I'm struggling to find data on this, but isn't launching a new device the year after the first notable decline in sales historically common? There was a minor decrease in PS4 sales in 2018, but 2019 was the first year there was a notable drop, and then the PS5 came out Holiday 2020.
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It's kind of hard to quantify something like "notable decline". I tried looking at something similar in when hardware peaked vs the successor showing up, but that doesn't seem to narrow things down for successful systems to much more specific than "2-4 years after peak", which doesn't help much. Switch peaked early 2021, so following that pattern basically all of 2023 or 2024 wouldn't be surprising.
 
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