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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

so like, maybe I'm wrong here

but if a late 2022 early 2023 launch was cancelled last summer, doesn't that mean they'd have to make a new foundry order with a long wait? maybe starting in mid 2024 for late 2024 or early 2025

I guess I mean to say that if it's late 2023 or early 2024 that would've had to have always been the plan, right?
 
Could you imagine Jensen Huang being in a Nintendo Direct?

He's going to try to condense his ray-tracing and DLSS spiel to something digestible in under a minute. I could imagine him using the words "through the magic of machine learning..." and probably showcase the latest Mario game using said ray-tracing as a mechanic in-game, such as reflections being passed from one mirror to another.

The average person isn't familiar with the term machine learning, and I believe that artificial intelligence would reach a broader pubic.
Also, I don't think that they would mention it unless it was used for something else than just boosting resolution. A gimmick of a sort. But if it's just for DLSS and 4K, they won't bother and just say "our console is state of the art and 4K capable; be excited".
Also, I seriously doubt that Jensen or Bowser are in Japan for anything Switch 2. But what do I know...
 
so like, maybe I'm wrong here

but if a late 2022 early 2023 launch was cancelled last summer, doesn't that mean they'd have to make a new foundry order with a long wait? maybe starting in mid 2024 for late 2024 or early 2025

I guess I mean to say that if it's late 2023 or early 2024 that would've had to have always been the plan, right?
Depends what "cancelled" means here and what exactly was cancelled. The console could've been cancelled but the chip itself not moved at all, that wouldn't require any change to their foundry orders.
 
there's nothing really worth discussing about the Digital Foundry video. they're not saying anything we haven't heard already or making any new predictions

Agreed!
After watching the latest DF Direct, I'm of the belief that content creators know and understand that talking about Switch successor hardware brings in tons of traffic. So therefore they will discuss it at nauseum even if they have nothing new to say on the subject because the topic prints money...
 
Depends what "cancelled" means here and what exactly was cancelled. The console could've been cancelled but the chip itself not moved at all, that wouldn't require any change to their foundry orders.
in such a scenario they'd effectively be stockpiling the chips for full assembly later?
 
I think what they mentioned in the podcast about not being able to previous bring over digital purchases on Nintendo consoles is inaccurate?

I didn't own a Wii U or a DSi. Couldn't you bring over your WiiWare/VC and DSi purchases to the 3DS? Or is the issue that it wasn't tied to an account?

Either way, saying "Nintendo are the masters of reselling their own library" feels like an overstatement just based on the Wii U ports. Maybe it's just cause I'm a little tired of the Nintendo BC talk in general and I also get these eye twitches.
 
Was thinking...if they think that's the likeliest candidate, then what do they think was cancelled?
I'm genuinely starting to believe in @Skittzo's ridiculous comedy of errors miscommunication in which DF's midgen refresh comment was just an errant thought to say "there's no Switch Pro" and Nate's is... something else?
 
Agreed!
After watching the latest DF Direct, I'm of the belief that content creators know and understand that talking about Switch successor hardware brings in tons of traffic. So therefore they will discuss it at nauseum even if they have nothing new to say on the subject because the topic prints money...
Eh they mentioned a couple times how they received a lot of requests to talk about the topic. Maybe they lied or exaggerated, but I doubt it. I do imagine a lot of people who asked about it will be disappointed when there's no shocker in the segment.
 
They didn't mention anything at all in the video about strong 2022 sales. He didn't give any reasoning why he "genuinely thinks" it'll be a 2024 thing "at this point".

They understandably ignored the NVidia leak when 'speculating' about the possible new chipset. They mentioned having a VRR screen would be smart. Nothing that hasn't been discussed in this thread before. Wasn't super interesting.
That quote is in the linked Eurogamer article which was written by Richard Leadbetter, actually.

2023 is looking unlikely, unfortunately. From a commercial perspective, there are two ways of looking at this. According to Gamesindustry.biz's Chris Dring, Switch was the best-selling console in the UK in 2022 - which is quite a feat. Assuming similar success elsewhere, the business case for a replacement this year may not be compelling to Nintendo. On the flip-side, sales are actually down 25 percent year-on-year. The system has clearly peaked, and we're now in a period of managed decline.

Yes they weigh it against the decline commentary, but I just don't know how I'm supposed to take someone seriously when they think Nintendo can decide on a rolling basis whether or not to release new hardware that year. But I've spent enough time ranting about that in the past.

Also shoutouts to the article just casually saying we know that T239 has a 128-bit memory bus, something that came entirely from @Thraktor in this thread. They also incorrectly say it has A78AE CPU cores.
 
New DF Direct out. A whole 30 min discussion on a Switch successor

Digital Foundry agrees backwards compatibility is absolutely paramount as shown with the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.

Richard Leadbetter doesn't think high performance is Nintendo's highest priority, and he thinks Nintendo wants to make handheld mode as manageable as possible. So he thinks the successor won't be as thick as the Steam Deck and probably be the same thickness as the OLED model. Richard Leadbetter believes Orin's the most likely choice since that's not using the most cutting edge process node, and Orin provides a generational leap over the Tegra X1. And although Nvidia probably doesn't bake in backwards compatibility, like AMD does, he thinks backwards compatibility is definitely possible since he thinks backwards compatibility is more likely an API issue, as in a successful transfer of the NVN API to the successor. (Alex Battaglia mentioned there were leaks with a certain SoC, but he didn't go into any technical details about that certain SoC. Alex Battaglia was obviously talking about Drake, or T239, but probably for legal reasons (since most of the information about Drake has been from the illegal Nvidia leaks), won't talk about Drake explicitly.) Richard Leadbetter thinks DLSS is indeed supported, with the goal of making the image looks presentable on 4K TVs rather than necessarily rendering in 4K with DLSS.

Alex Battaglia thinks there's a possibility Nintendo could use a VRR enabled display since Nintendo used an OLED display for the OLED model, which could be a battery life saver (e.g. 40 fps target), or a battery life drainer. He also believes there's a possibility the model complexity of DLSS on the successor won't be the same as on PC, with compromises on quality and on the size to make DLSS run better on the successor. But that could result the loss of quality for TV mode. Alex Battaglia believes the successor is going to support up to 4K in TV mode, and he'd be surprised if 1080p is the max resolution supported.[/ispoiler]
 
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I think what they mentioned in the podcast about not being able to previous bring over digital purchases on Nintendo consoles is inaccurate?

I didn't own a Wii U or a DSi. Couldn't you bring over your WiiWare/VC and DSi purchases to the 3DS? Or is the issue that it wasn't tied to an account?

Either way, saying "Nintendo are the masters of reselling their own library" feels like an overstatement just based on the Wii U ports. Maybe it's just cause I'm a little tired of the Nintendo BC talk in general and I also get these eye twitches.
DSiWare, WiiWare, and Wii VC games could all be carried forward via system transfer to the 3DS and Wii U. A system transfer was required because there was no account, yeah.

The only questionable part was that after you'd transferred a Wii VC purchase, if you wanted to play the Wii U VC version (instead of needing to boot into the Wii menu), you had to repurchase it, albeit at a significant discount. NES games were $1 instead of $5, SNES were $1.50 instead of $8, and N64 were $2 instead of $10.
 
Are they just playing dumb about T239 and all the leaked Drake info? And if so, why? I wish they would invite someone more knowledgeable or passionate about the next gen hardware from Nintendo onto their podcast. They all kind of just agree with each other. As much as we might bemoan MVG for being pessimistic more often than not (or contrarian), at least he’ll push back on things. There needs to be a voice even if they only bring up the BC shader issue, for example.
 
Alex Battaglia mentioned there were leaks with a certain SoC, but he didn't go into any technical details about that certain SoC. Alex Battaglia was obviously talking about Drake, or T239, but probably for legal reasons (since most of the information about Drake has been from the illegal Nvidia leaks).
Are they just playing dumb about T239 and all the leaked Drake info? And if so, why? I wish they would invite someone more knowledgeable or passionate about the next gen hardware from Nintendo onto their podcast. They all kind of just agree with each other. As much as we might bemoan MVG for being pessimistic more often than not (or contrarian), at least he’ll push back on things. There needs to be a voice even if they only bring up the BC shader issue, for example.
The text in the article version says it explicitly:
We can speak with a fairly high degree of confidence in the design of the new system, as the combination of comments from the industry's most reliable hardware leaker - kopite7kimi - along with leaks from Nvidia itself suggest that the new hardware is based on a custom variant of the Tegra 234 found in its automative products and the new Orin NX Jetson board. The so-called T239 variant is now confirmed as real with mooted specs including eight ARM A78AE CPU cores, a 128-bit memory bus and a GPU based on the RTX 3000-series Ampere architecture with 1536 CUDA cores. That means the new Switch will support DLSS (expect this for docked mode upscaling) and even ray tracing, though my understanding is that Nintendo is prioritising battery life over high-end features.
 
If they really were prioritising battery life, they would not have gone for 12SM on 8nm.

Because if that is the node they are going for, its literally impossible to have good battery life.
unless they clock as low as possible!

which would defeat the purpose of going 12SM/8cores in the first place
 
in such a scenario they'd effectively be stockpiling the chips for full assembly later?
Possibly, yeah. They could also potentially start ramping up production a bit later than initially planned, I'm sure they'd be able to negotiate a slight delay with the foundry.

I don't buy this at all mind you, I still think the cancelled pro was obviously a Mariko revision for 2019.
 
So the cancelled refresh hardware wasn't Drake Switch...

Ops...
the way I see it we have two ways of reconciling the information:
  • DF and Nate were talking about different devices, the latter being Drake and the former being something else entirely
  • DF and Nate were talking about the same device, and Nate's technical details were assumptions (i.e. neither was Drake)
 
DF doesn't think it's coming this year
Timescales? 2023 is looking unlikely, unfortunately. From a commercial perspective, there are two ways of looking at this. According to Gamesindustry.biz's Chris Dring, Switch was the best-selling console in the UK in 2022 - which is quite a feat. Assuming similar success elsewhere, the business case for a replacement this year may not be compelling to Nintendo. On the flip-side, sales are actually down 25 percent year-on-year. The system has clearly peaked, and we're now in a period of managed decline. Our guess, based on gut feeling and no firm intel whatsoever? An announcement towards the end of the year and perhaps a release in Q1 2024. Regardless, we can't wait to see it: Nvidia's Ampere technology may be two-years-old but it's still phenomenal, a massive improvement over Tegra X1. Combined with Nintendo's unparalleled game design, it should be an astonishing reveal.
 
I'll never agree with using recent financial results as a barometer for things that are planned years in advance. I've yet to see any other company do this, so why would I believe Nintendo would?
Yeah, especially the sixth year. I can understand reflecting on the first three years of the Switch or even four with the pandemic, but I’m sure even Nintendo knew 2020 was an anomaly for demand. Especially since that year only really had one massive game and the following two years declined despite having more software overall.
 
I hope Nintendo doesn't make Toy Jensen sing.

I can see it now—secret character in smash bros ultimate deluxe for Drake.

Standard Special: Ray Trace. Jensen slightly squats as Beams of light are shot from his hands in a triforce manner like Tien from DB performing Tri-Beam Cannon.
Up Special: TFLOP. He jumps on a trampoline, with his arms and legs in a T position. Has super armor coming up. Press B again to cartwheel in mid-air, and again to come crashing down in T pose.
Side Special: DLSS. Runs fast through an opponent.
Down Special: A.I. Machine. A Robotic version of Jensen comes before him and puts up a force field in front of him.

DF reiterated their belief in T239 being the most likely candidate for the next Switch (well, they said Ampere based Orin SoC from "the leaks", we all know what that is).
One guy does. I believe it's Alex. . Rich brought up Switch 2 using Orion NX in the last podcast, but now he's just saying "Orin chipset" in the one released today. And John is still adamant about believing it will release next year, which is understandable. Rich thinks it could release later this year.


this guy think the switch 2 or what ever its called will be shown this month??? any one know if thats real or if this guy is on cloud 9?

Not with that dumb Youtuber look XD. He's speculating like everyone else.
 
One guy does. I believe it's Alex. . Rich brought up Switch 2 using Orion NX in the last podcast, but now he's just saying "Orin chipset" in the one released today. And John is still adamant about believing it will release next year, which is understandable. Rich thinks it could release later this year.
I'm also referring to the DF article linked above where Rich talks about their confidence in T239.
 
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Nate clarification on Twitter that the next episode is (paraphrased) “Nintendo, but not predictions” and elsewhere reiterating Nintendo 2023 predictions will come later in the month, bodes well for this week’s episode - anyone else read it that way?

Not sure what Nintendo topics there are he’d cover beyond the Drake elephant in the room or the 2023 episode.
Sharing insider information is considered prediction?
 
That quote is in the linked Eurogamer article which was written by Richard Leadbetter, actually.

Oh my mistake. It's enough to listen to audio that consists of basically this thread lol I wasn't about to read about the audio about the thread.
 
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so like, maybe I'm wrong here

but if a late 2022 early 2023 launch was cancelled last summer, doesn't that mean they'd have to make a new foundry order with a long wait? maybe starting in mid 2024 for late 2024 or early 2025

I guess I mean to say that if it's late 2023 or early 2024 that would've had to have always been the plan, right?
Nintendo buys foundry space from Nvidia, not the actual foundries. What does that matter?

It gives them quite a bit more flexibility. Whatever foundry space they don't use, will be used for other Nvidia products.

This is a reason I find the node change theory to be at least plausible. Could they have worked out a deal where the original 8m chip was canned in order for a more powerful 5nm Drake? Yea, in theory then that original 8nm allocation would then be used on other ampere products. The fact that they're buying from Nvidia wouldn't necessarily require them to reserve years in advance.
 
I appreciate the DF folks, and it was fun to hear them talk in length about Switch again for a change, but it's also clear why they haven't often done that: there's honestly not that much concrete to talk about =P .



this guy think the switch 2 or what ever its called will be shown this month??? any one know if thats real or if this guy is on cloud 9?

This kind of thumbnail should be punishable by law.
 
Nintendo buys foundry space from Nvidia, not the actual foundries. What does that matter?

It gives them quite a bit more flexibility. Whatever foundry space they don't use, will be used for other Nvidia products.

This is a reason I find the node change theory to be at least plausible. Could they have worked out a deal where the original 8m chip was canned in order for a more powerful 5nm Drake? Yea, in theory then that original 8nm allocation would then be used on other ampere products. The fact that they're buying from Nvidia wouldn't necessarily require them to reserve years in advance.
ah, I was completely unaware of this wrinkle. thank you

that does seem like the most sensible reconciliation of what we've heard
 
Just watched the DF video. It's extremely clear that anyone who has been trying to read hints into Richard's head waggles or whatever over the last year have been off-base, Richard has no deep inside knowledge on this point.

At least in the context of the video, the "Switch is selling well" chatter is in reference to what timing would make the best business decision for Nintendo, not that recent sales are driving multi-year plans. And Rich's conclusion is specifically that the current sales, while quite good, have been on a downward trend for years, so of course Nintendo needs to be ready to deliver on that basis. Which I think is uncontroversial.

John points out a couple times that this is a new executive team, and that "because Nintendo" isn't a useful predictor when we don't have any history with this team.

Alex correctly points to the Switch's technical status - the GPU is surprisingly robust, the memory bandwidth situation is awfully poor, and the Jaguar CPUs are so god awful that Nintendo has benefited even more than expected from the cross-gen period.

And Richard points out that "4K" is less of an issue than "looking good on 4K screens" as long as Series S is around pushing good looking 1080p gaming. And all of them agree (with Alex being the non-tendo fan) that the Switch's concept and form factor hold up.

There are other points as well, but I think this is a good analysis of the state of play going into next gen, even if it is devoid of any juicy tidbits.
 
The text in the article version says it explicitly:
We can speak with a fairly high degree of confidence in the design of the new system, as the combination of comments from the industry's most reliable hardware leaker - kopite7kimi - along with leaks from Nvidia itself suggest that the new hardware is based on a custom variant of the Tegra 234 found in its automative products and the new Orin NX Jetson board. The so-called T239 variant is now confirmed as real with mooted specs including eight ARM A78AE CPU cores, a 128-bit memory bus and a GPU based on the RTX 3000-series Ampere architecture with 1536 CUDA cores. That means the new Switch will support DLSS (expect this for docked mode upscaling) and even ray tracing, though my understanding is that Nintendo is prioritising battery life over high-end features.
It's funny to me that kopite was the first to get people talking about T239 and a connection to Nintendo, but he's had zero information on it ever since then, while we've gotten a deluge of info from other sources.

It's also funny that public L4T commits referencing T239 started in April 2021, and the first one with real info came before that June tweet, but nobody noticed them until way later. Edit: Probably not correct.
 
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Im going to point out the obvious in all the current chatter, we have yet to say a running gameplay demonstration of Tears of the Kingdom. I have never seen any game less than four months away now be so secretive with the footage shown of it. Especially for a direct sequel. So I still firmly believe that TotK has something to do with a Switch 2 presentation that will be before the game launches
 
Im going to point out the obvious in all the current chatter, we have yet to say a running gameplay demonstration of Tears of the Kingdom. I have never seen any game less than four months away now be so secretive with the footage shown of it. Especially for a direct sequel. So I still firmly believe that TotK has something to do with a Switch 2 presentation that will be before the game launches

I don't know... Nintendo has been pretty stingy with a lot of games in recent years. Just to give some examples, we didn't really get to see much of Splatoon 3 until like 4 weeks before release. We haven't seen much of Bayonetta Origins which is due out in March, very little for Kirby: Return to Dreamland Deluxe, etc. I mean the company just doesn't show much footage of their games until right before release. Fire Emblem got a lot of coverage since it was announced last September. I'll give them that but even that is only a 4 month gap between release. I think Zelda isn't being shown simply because they want gamers to focus on Fire Emblem Engage right now. They will possibly give us something in February or at least I hope with Kirby being a remake of an already known title.
 
Sharing insider information is considered prediction?
I’m just going off of his terminology. That’s what he calls this series of shows he does about the big three at the beginning of the year, predicting their lineup.

I think in past years he’s stated his predictions episodes are part genuine guess, part informed speculation, since he may know of a project but doesn’t always know it’s launch window.

This is all if I’m reading your comment correctly.
 
I don't know... Nintendo has been pretty stingy with a lot of games in recent years. Just to give some examples, we didn't really get to see much of Splatoon 3 until like 4 weeks before release. We haven't seen much of Bayonetta Origins which is due out in March, very little for Kirby: Return to Dreamland Deluxe, etc. I mean the company just doesn't show much footage of their games until right before release. Fire Emblem got a lot of coverage since it was announced last September. I'll give them that but even that is only a 4 month gap between release. I think Zelda isn't being shown simply because they want gamers to focus on Fire Emblem Engage right now. They will possibly give us something in February or at least I hope with Kirby being a remake of an already known title.
Bayonetta Origins has a playable ~20 minute demo inside Bayo 3
 
Yeah I did see that. How was that btw? I haven't played Bayonetta 3 but Origins kind of looked potentially interesting.
It was a little dull I thought. Lots of walking, just a few spots for interactivity. I'm sure the full game will have a lot more though.
 
I don't know... Nintendo has been pretty stingy with a lot of games in recent years. Just to give some examples, we didn't really get to see much of Splatoon 3 until like 4 weeks before release. We haven't seen much of Bayonetta Origins which is due out in March, very little for Kirby: Return to Dreamland Deluxe, etc. I mean the company just doesn't show much footage of their games until right before release. Fire Emblem got a lot of coverage since it was announced last September. I'll give them that but even that is only a 4 month gap between release. I think Zelda isn't being shown simply because they want gamers to focus on Fire Emblem Engage right now. They will possibly give us something in February or at least I hope with Kirby being a remake of an already known title.

I´d say TotK has much more content that needs to be fleshed out than ones you brought up. And even comparing what we have to now with them, TotK feels like its been shown in bits and flashes. I would get it if it was a year out, which even then most long announced games already have a gameplay vid of them shown off, but it is way too close to release now for it not to have something to do with the new system
 
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