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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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this thread once again becomes the biggest thread on famiboards

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If a drake based device went back to the drawing board
Let’s say cause the chip is too big/power hungry, and couldn’t meet targets…
Then to me that leaves two options, they’ll die shrink it and push the hardware out a bit, which may delay some software (third and first party)
Or
They’re changing the form factor of the device to better house the chip.
Whether that means a fattier hybrid switch with a thicker body and bigger battery, or a device with a different type of hook that’s less portable, or a stationary console… who knows… but to me that’s kind of the only couple of options to make it work.
 
Admittedly, if the chip was indeed canned somewhere between this year, then that means the new SoC will indeed be a lot more powerful (and Nintendo will be taking a sizable financial hit for sitting on the chips for no apparent reason)... Idk about you all, but the SoC we already have is kinda overkill for them already. We might as well get them back into the home console market in that case, just like the guy above proposed.
 
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MP! said:
If a drake based device went back to the drawing board
Let’s say cause the chip is too big/power hungry, and couldn’t meet targets…
Then to me that leaves two options, they’ll die shrink it and push the hardware out a bit, which may delay some software (third and first party)
Or
They’re changing the form factor of the device to better house the chip.
Whether that means a fattier hybrid switch with a thicker body and bigger battery, or a device with a different type of hook that’s less portable, or a stationary console… who knows… but to me that’s kind of the only couple of options to make it work.
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I think we can rule out that the chip didn't meet power requirements. Nvidia would have plenty of data about how ampere performs on 8nm,
 
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10k said:
Switch 2/Pro/Drake speculation didn't really have any credence until Bloomberg and WSJ got involved. Both of them dropping the ball and being wrong and confusing the OLED for a successor was a huge blow.

Makes me think there never was 11 dev kits out there to begin with.
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The odds of Bloomberg either making 11 identical mistakes based on info from 11 independent sources or lying about having 11 sources are astronomically low.
MP! said:
If a drake based device went back to the drawing board
Let’s say cause the chip is too big/power hungry, and couldn’t meet targets…
Then to me that leaves two options, they’ll die shrink it and push the hardware out a bit, which may delay some software (third and first party)
Or
They’re changing the form factor of the device to better house the chip.
Whether that means a fattier hybrid switch with a thicker body and bigger battery, or a device with a different type of hook that’s less portable, or a stationary console… who knows… but to me that’s kind of the only couple of options to make it work.
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If it was die shrunk it would no longer be Drake/T239. It would get a new codename and code number. The fact that we're still seeing active use of T239 tells me the chip could not have been scrapped.
 
10k said:
Switch 2/Pro/Drake speculation didn't really have any credence until Bloomberg and WSJ got involved. Both of them dropping the ball and being wrong and confusing the OLED for a successor was a huge blow.

Makes me think there never was 11 dev kits out there to begin with.
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Neither WSJ nor Bloomberg would lie about obtaining that type of info. That's non sense.
 
Remember that Olga Kharif is one of the authors of the 11 devkits report. She has previously written about Zynga and would most likely be their contact. It's not just Mochizuki who has been in touch.
 
Derachi said:
I am ready to plop 600 CAD minimum down for it lol
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Oh yeah, in Ontario with tax, Switch 2 is easily going to hit $600.
Skittzo said:
The odds of Bloomberg either making 11 identical mistakes based on info from 11 independent sources or lying about having 11 sources are astronomically low.

If it was die shrunk it would no longer be Drake/T239. It would get a new codename and code number. The fact that we're still seeing active use of T239 tells me the chip could not have been scrapped.
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Gotdatmoneyy said:
Neither WSJ nor Bloomberg would lie about obtaining that type of info. That's non sense.
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Woah, I didn't say they lied. They likely misinterpreted information or mistook a revised devkit for current Switch as Switch 2.

It's really odd how Zynga denied having a dev kit, and not getting any leaks since these dev kits have shipped, while we got spec leaks and performance leaks for XSX, XSS (lockhart) and PS5 12 months before they launched.
 
Thugstas said:
What the hell is happening to this thread ?
We moved to an official Nintendo hardware discussion or still speculative ?
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What do you mean what is happening?
10k said:
Woah, I didn't say they lied. They likely misinterpreted information or mistook a revised devkit for current Switch as Switch 2.

It's really odd how Zynga denied having a dev kit, and not getting any leaks since these dev kits have shipped, while we got spec leaks and performance leaks for XSX, XSS (lockhart) and PS5 12 months before they launched.
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And like I said the odds of them making the same mistake from 11 different sources is just as insane as them lying.

And we did get leaks, much more extensive leaks than XS or PS got, last February. The issue is those leaks were obtained due to an illegal hack so it's likely some reporters don't want to report on them, which would include not wanting devs to corroborate those leaks.
 
10k said:
Oh yeah, in Ontario with tax, Switch 2 is easily going to hit $600.



Woah, I didn't say they lied. They likely misinterpreted information or mistook a revised devkit for current Switch as Switch 2.

It's really odd how Zynga denied having a dev kit, and not getting any leaks since these dev kits have shipped, while we got spec leaks and performance leaks for XSX, XSS (lockhart) and PS5 12 months before they launched.
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To be fair, we already got those under... Some illegal sources, but they're out in the wild regardless. Nintendo definitely knows at this point.
 
Skittzo said:
What do you mean what is happening?

And like I said the odds of them making the same mistake from 11 different sources is just as insane as them lying.

And we did get leaks, much more extensive leaks than XS or PS got, last February. The issue is those leaks were obtained due to an illegal hack so it's likely some reporters don't want to report on them, which would include not wanting devs to corroborate those leaks.
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Everything was speculation here and for quite some days … everything changed … podcast from DF, random tweets.. brought lots of drama.
This thread is still speculative… 😁
 
I do feel like with the rumors of new production lines being set up and the Famitsu article, which is part speculation and part legitmate info, I do believe new hardware is entering production this month.
 
Hermii said:
What are the odds that Nintendos original plans was too high end, with all the price increases and inflation of the last few years? So they actually had to delay it to nerf it?
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Highly unlikely, they can still lower clocks or get a bigger battery to retain them. What it is likely to happen is an increase to 450$ in the background, just like Furukawa implied not so long time ago.
 
Hermii said:
What are the odds that Nintendos original plans was too high end, with all the price increases and inflation of the last few years? So they actually had to delay it to nerf it?
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In order for me to entertain this, have they done something to this extent before? I’ve only really paid attention to Nintendo in the switch era, so I don’t know.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
In order for me to entertain this, have they done something to this extent before? I’ve only really paid attention to Nintendo in the switch era, so I don’t know.
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Not that I know of, at least not to the point where devs got new devkits that were less powerful than the previous ones.
 
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Hidden04 said:
I do feel like with the rumors of new production lines being set up and the Famitsu article, which is part speculation and part legitmate info, I do believe new hardware is entering production this month.
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I have 0 reason to doubt that. Finalised samples last April, assembly now sounds right on target.
 
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10k said:
Can't wait for the reactions when Switch 2 is $449 for the entry model.
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Wouldnt bother me. I've been putting $5-$10 here and there for the past few years for the next console. Whether it was a pro or switch 2, I already have the console covered so im ready for it.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
In order for me to entertain this, have they done something to this extent before? I’ve only really paid attention to Nintendo in the switch era, so I don’t know.
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...no.
Pushing it back, redeveloping the console, renegotiating with partners...
it would cost them at least as much as they would save... in other words the cost would stay the same with a smaller machine. at least in the short run. maybe slightly cheaper.

but in the long run they would feel a lack of power earlier (for shure, making some ports harder and increasing cost for developers), and moving it to new nodes for reduces production cost / ironing out security flaws / reducing power draw (like every console ever i think did? or at least the last 20 years...) would works out better if you start off with up to date tech and more ambition (at least i feel like it does, no hard facts)
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
In order for me to entertain this, have they done something to this extent before? I’ve only really paid attention to Nintendo in the switch era, so I don’t know.
Click to expand...
Closest thing I can recall is that it was noted/rumored with the WiiU that Nintendo promised certain things with the hardware to 3rd parties, and then under delivered significantly.
 
oldpuck said:
The GPU power draw? The power draw of a totally unrelated device?

Sure. Just no way of knowing. Let me get super in the weeds here, and lay out what happened, and why it's hard to know what these numbers mean. Feel free to ignore, it's too damn long.

I realize this was a lot but it's important context. Everything in that list we basically know happened because it's either in the leak, or is absolute bog standard practice for the industry. Some version of this absolutely happened internally at Nvidia. But it leaves us with a bunch of questions
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Thank you, for the extremely detailed response. I'm a Product/Program manager these days and a developer in a previous life so I have some experience with Jenkins (though it came after my developer life).

I was, like others too hung up on the labels despite like many other in IT are intimately familiar with naming being calcified early and easily, though I was thinking that perhaps they related to NVN as a historical name.
 
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Vash said:
Wouldnt bother me. I've been putting $5-$10 here and there for the past few years for the next console. Whether it was a pro or switch 2, I already have the console covered so im ready for it.
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Same, hahah. Nintendo will release a new console eventually, so I've made sure to have enough on standby to get it without any trouble.
 
Vash said:
catching up on the last few pages, do some of you not just get tired of being pessimistic all the time?
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Some of its trolling, some of it is revealing in schadenfreude. . .

Still, I'm team 2023 and I'm still not convinced that TotK isn't cross-gen with Drake.
 
The pessimism is mostly a defense mechanism. The most pessimistic folks tend to be the most sensitive and hopeful. When you're afraid of disappointment, it's easier to lash out rather than touch grass.

Of course the super-optimism makes me queasy, too. It's always framed as semi-ironic, but underneath it there's deep desperation.

It's a good thing I'm superior to everybody. Anyway, see you in 1 minute when I check this thread again, compulsively, despite putting a lock on my phone for how many minutes of Chrome time I'm allowed.

🤪
 
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10k said:
Can't wait for the reactions when Switch 2 is $449 for the entry model.
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if that would have been for a pro (or even the price increase for the oled)... no thanks.

Im "okay" with such a price increase (...i kinda have to, not because i feel like its okay, but i cant expect nintendo out of all major tech companies to not try to milk the inflation...just looking at profit reports around the world...)

BUT: i would have high expectations.
  • 4k HDR for sure, if were at 450€ in 2023.
  • Joycons should be fixed (and people will open them on release)
  • 8GB sounds conservative if its 450€ in 2023, since then we are already comfortably in the field of 12GB smartphones... but i would still be ok if 8GB is really enough...
  • 256GB ssd (im not expecting that they will manage to start a new wave of high speed storage solutions, and outside of gaming the market did kinda stop to develop because...for what? 4k recording? already fast enough. 8k? nobody needs it. So we need at least 256gb of on board storage, and an sd card slot for "fridging" games.
  • I also want a quick swap solution like XBox. Meaning, 128GB internal storage wont cut it.
  • The display also needs HDR, and ideally 1080p, although im fine with 720 if its NOT BIGGER then the base switch...im already annoyed by the bigger pixels on the oled. but if its not 1080, then i would really want a 90Hz screen. That's already available in phones <300€, so i don't see a problem with a 720 HDR 90Hz screen (see: Samsung A Series...A33 has a 1080 HDR AMOLED 90Hz screen, and is < 300€)
  • the joy con grip that's added should be of the charging variety. for 450€ i don't want them to skimp on a 70c usb c charging chip.
  • i also want them to support VRR (i don't have anything with that, but to future prof a 450€ console in 2023), and options for 120Hz gaming (not for major franchises, but so that old ports, remasters and indies can use it. like, just think of an F-Zero remaster that, instead going 4k it goes for >= 1080 and 120Hz. In my opinion that would be mind melting.
  • while i would get them trying to have Joy Cons compatible, i would hope for... improvements and expansion. back triggers, analog triggers, something like that. hall sensor sticks...
In other words: just having a good soc is not enough for such a price increase in my opinion, even with everything getting more expensive.


Re fridging games on an sd card: have a "streaming" solution, where if you have enough space on the internal storage, you can start the game from the sd card, and it just loads the assets to the internal storage, prioritizing the important ones (developers will know which one they are), so you can start a game rather fast instead of having to wait for all 60-100GB to be moved.
Similar how play during install disks worked on ps...4? 5?
 
Vash said:
catching up on the last few pages, do some of you not just get tired of being pessimistic all the time?
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Excuse me for not posting „it’s happening“ every day.
It was „happening“ when some random Amazon people said there’s a new Nintendo SKU. It was „happening“ when Nintendo de-listed the OLED reveal trailer. It was „happening“ late 2022/early 2023.
I think many here aren’t pessimistic, but tired.
 
MrPenguin said:
Do you guys think we can get the switch 2 in 2023?
Click to expand...

Not that long ago I was convinced that if Switch 2 wasnt launching next to Zelda TotK then it wouldn't be coming till 2024. It just didnt make sense to miss the opportunity for Zelda to help drive another successful hardware launch like it did with Wii and Switch. However, when you look at those games they were developed for poor selling platforms and then ported to their successor. Zelda TotK doesn't need Switch 2 in order to sell big numbers. Its going to do big numbers on Switch regardless if Switch 2 comes out in May. We will know in the next 4-6 weeks when the next Nintendo Direct airs, if no new hardware is announced then holiday 2023 is the earliest and 2024 very likely. The specs for Drake are good enough that it wouldn't be out of line for 2024. The A57 CPU cores that are in the Tegra X1 originally launched in 2012 and Switch released in 2017. The X1 was still Maxwell based and Nvidia had moved to Pascal in 2016 and had the volta architecture out in late 2017. Even if Switch 2 launches with Drake in 2024, it would be every bit as modern as the Switch was in 2017 launching with the Tegra X1.

If Switch 2 comes alongside Zelda, I think it will be named Switch 4K. Nintendo could be looking for a soft transition more similar to the GameBoy to GameBoy Color. Switch 4K would have exclusives but be entirely backwards compatible.
 
AlwaysOnDeck said:
I recall a quote where a developer said they were "no longer in possession" of the devkit.

Regardless, absolutely nothing points to "likely 2023," let alone an expectancy for 2023.
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I definitely never read anything like that.

As for likely 2023, I'll direct you to this post:
Skittzo said:
Here's a question for you. Not trying to force you to believe anything one way or the other:

If we forget all rumors, everything from any journalist on the subject, what are we left with? We're left with leaked data from an illegal hack that Nvidia confirmed was real, and publicly accessible information from the Linux kernel.

All of the information we can glean from those sources suggests that a chip for a Nintendo product has been completed and likely produced physically, at least for samples, as of April 2022. People with experience following chip development say that you likely aren't going to be waiting 2 years from when samples were produced for the chip to be in a released product.

So again, if you ignore every rumor on the subject the actual hard, verified data heavily suggests a 2023 launch.
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I think the new hardware will be called Nintendo Switch (2nd Generation) and the OG Nintendo Switch will be renamed to Nintendo Switch (1st Generation). It keeps it simple and easy for customers ro understand and it's similar to how Apple branded their iPod line for a while.
 
speculate skeptically optimistically and play some games. before u know it the next console will be here

edit: every single person in this thread wants this thing to come out asap, by saying it’s not gonna be here this year next year lalala, isn’t helping the convo. there’s some clever ass people in this thread with vast amounts of knowledge, you don’t have to take their word, because they also know that they’re just speculating, but appreciate their explanations. i can’t imagine the time it takes to sift through so much code and data and then explain it to us casuals in such simple terms. my edit is now longer than my post. doesn’t hurt to just be nice.
 
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Cackletta5 said:
Excuse me for not posting „it’s happening“ every day.
It was „happening“ when some random Amazon people said there’s a new Nintendo SKU. It was „happening“ when Nintendo de-listed the OLED reveal trailer. It was „happening“ late 2022/early 2023.
I think many here aren’t pessimistic, but tired.
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I wasnt even talking about you lol. The last time i even saw your name in here is when you were mad people didn't listen to that jumpforce user who had 1 collective post on this entire website...
 
theguy said:
speculate skeptically optimistically and play some games. before u know it the next console will be here

edit: every single person in this thread wants this thing to come out asap, by saying it’s not gonna be here this year next year lalala, isn’t helping the convo. there’s some clever ass people in this thread with vast amounts of knowledge, you don’t have to take their word, because they also know that they’re just speculating, but appreciate their explanations. i can’t imagine the time it takes to sift through so much code and data and then explain it to us casuals in such simple terms. my edit is now longer than my post. doesn’t hurt to just be nice.
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This isn't true...

I honestly don't care when it comes out because I likely won't be getting it for a while. I follow this stuff because speculating on hints and leaks and info like this is extremely fun.
 
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