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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

At least we agree on that last point.

But you did contradict yourself a bit on the first point, since you said they weren't correlated, for some reason. So did you say it, or would you never say it? 🥲
Hah! Let me try a second time and see if I can be clearer.

Power draw of a piece of hardware is correlated with the performance of that hardware. In general, less power, less performance, and vice versa. 100% agree with you.

However, the tests that were talking about don't actually control the power draw. The wattage numbers are just labels, they don't actually reduce the power draw of the test. What I'm saying is, those power numbers and those clock speeds in the test might not be directly related.

For example, let us say that 4.2W is, in fact, the target power draw on Drake for handheld mode. Totally reasonable. But the developer building NVN2 doesn't have access to Drake yet, it's still being designed. He is using a RTX 2060 for development. He wants to clock his RTX 2060 down low, to simulate Drake running in handheld mode. He picks the lowest clock his 2060 supports - 660Mhz - and that becomes the low power test clock, which is labeled "4.2 W".

In this scenario the two numbers are related. But they're not correlated. Meaning that we can't predict Drake's clocks from these numbers.

This is not the only scenario. I can imagine scenario where they are correlated, but the wattage number is just the GPU power draw, not the whole SOC. In that case, we can make predictions about the clocks, but we can't guess the final power draw (because that would involve information about memory and CPU clocks we still don't have).

Without more context, we can't know which of these scenarios is the correct one - or if it is a third scenario entirely


I feel the need to apologise because I think I've misunderstood you somewhere along the way, but I would definitely appreciate some clarity.
No apology needed. I definitely also misunderstood you at one point. I appreciate you being willing to keep talking about it while we both brought the temperature down.
 
Assuming the Rapdius mention isn't a throwaway joke, perhaps Nintendo could be interested in using IBM's 2 nm** process node (via Rapdius since Rapdius probably licenced IBM's 2 nm** process node IP from IBM) to fabricate future SoCs? (IBM did announce a partnership with Rapdius to produce 2 nm** chips in Japan.)

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies

Going down the rabbit hole I also ended up at that site. No idea if Nintendo has any interest in 2nm stuff, but that guy in the middle of the photo is Dario Gill and he was in Tokyo 3 weeks ago for that announcement. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dari...Az?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Now I don't know if the IBM Senior Vice President and Director of Research qualifies as a VIP and is worth writing a gossip/tease article about or not (plus he seems to get around a lot, he was in Brussels before Tokyo) but I don't think he'd be back so soon. Perhaps someone higher up at IBM would need to come back to Rapidus for some reason 3 weeks later. Maybe they have a 1nm announcement planned lol who knows. I think that kind of makes it less likely the international man of mystery is an IBM person though - unless of course it's for any other reason than Rapidus/Nintendo lol don't know why I bothered with all this now.
 
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Orin, running 8CPUs @1Ghz and 12SMs @ 660Mhz, with a memory bus @ 3199Mhz draws 25W of power. Drake to run at 4.2W of power in the same configuration would be 6x power efficiency increase, across the board, for the GPU and CPU.

Lovelace, which runs on 5nm and uses the same FLCG as Drake, is only 2x more efficient than Ampere. This level of improvement is not physically possible on any node that currently exists. Nvidia making an ARM CPU this efficient, even on 3nm, would immediately make them the dominant mobile CPU manufacturer, leaving Apple so far in the dust it would upend the entire market.

So what are you concluding from this? That 12SM's ann 8 CPU cores cant fit within the power consumption limits Switch has? Even on a 4N process?


On a separate note, has there been any consideration that Nintendo might continue with the unified software library but will have multiple devices? Switch was always intended to be a family of systems, so perhaps Nintendo rolls out the home console first that is powered by Drake where thermals and power consumption are not of a concern and release the next gen portable Switch at a later date, potentially with far less GPU cores if its still using a 720p screen.
 
So what are you concluding from this? That 12SM's ann 8 CPU cores cant fit within the power consumption limits Switch has? Even on a 4N process?


On a separate note, has there been any consideration that Nintendo might continue with the unified software library but will have multiple devices? Switch was always intended to be a family of systems, so perhaps Nintendo rolls out the home console first that is powered by Drake where thermals and power consumption are not of a concern and release the next gen portable Switch at a later date, potentially with far less GPU cores if its still using a 720p screen.

Why fuck with the golden goose?
 
Hey, yall. First time posting but just wanted to point this out.

They don't care all that much about losing face, and Sony didn't either. Admittedly, just bare bones 4K patches without anything to them is a good way to keep them free. Now, once the short cross-gen period starts and you want to upgrade to the Drake versions... That's where we can begin to be worried, luckily it won't be too long.
Sony most definitely care about that as they initially had Horzion Forbidden West to be just no free upgrade until people complained and they changed their minds. https://www.videogameschronicle.com...ests-ps4-page-confirming-its-free-ps5-update/
 
Yeah it feels like the famitsu article is meaningless as far as we're concerned. If it's referring to someone who's likely there to visit Rapidus it's probably an IBM exec and not Jensen.
I interpreted it more as a joke. 'A well-known VIP who doesn't leave the US much is making a visit to Japan. Their company has been involved with Nintendo in the past. But hey, maybe it's just about Rapidus. (laughter)'
 
Hah! Let me try a second time and see if I can be clearer.

Power draw of a piece of hardware is correlated with the performance of that hardware. In general, less power, less performance, and vice versa. 100% agree with you.

However, the tests that were talking about don't actually control the power draw. The wattage numbers are just labels, they don't actually reduce the power draw of the test. What I'm saying is, those power numbers and those clock speeds in the test might not be directly related.

For example, let us say that 4.2W is, in fact, the target power draw on Drake for handheld mode. Totally reasonable. But the developer building NVN2 doesn't have access to Drake yet, it's still being designed. He is using a RTX 2060 for development. He wants to clock his RTX 2060 down low, to simulate Drake running in handheld mode. He picks the lowest clock his 2060 supports - 660Mhz - and that becomes the low power test clock, which is labeled "4.2 W".

In this scenario the two numbers are related. But they're not correlated. Meaning that we can't predict Drake's clocks from these numbers.

This is not the only scenario. I can imagine scenario where they are correlated, but the wattage number is just the GPU power draw, not the whole SOC. In that case, we can make predictions about the clocks, but we can't guess the final power draw (because that would involve information about memory and CPU clocks we still don't have).

Without more context, we can't know which of these scenarios is the correct one - or if it is a third scenario entirely



No apology needed. I definitely also misunderstood you at one point. I appreciate you being willing to keep talking about it while we both brought the temperature down.
All's well that ends well! Thanks for clarifying.
 
I interpreted it more as a joke. 'A well-known VIP who doesn't leave the US much is making a visit to Japan. Their company has been involved with Nintendo in the past. But hey, maybe it's just about Rapidus. (laughter)'

And that half sentence "Moreover, the direction of his destination..." is just a little too sly. But I don't know how they usually write stuff, maybe it is just like a TMZ gossip paparazzi for tech nerds.

Or does that blog only post excerpts from articles/columns? I guess that would make more sense. Once again, wait and see is the best course of action.
 
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I interpreted it more as a joke. 'A well-known VIP who doesn't leave the US much is making a visit to Japan. Their company has been involved with Nintendo in the past. But hey, maybe it's just about Rapidus. (laughter)'
One of the other translations I saw said "but it's probably just Rapidus"

I guess we wait for the official article.
 
One of the other translations I saw said "but it's probably just Rapidus"

I guess we wait for the official article.
Directly following that sentence is(笑), which essentially means (lol), so I interpret it as a little wink-wink nudge-nudge.
 
Hey, yall. First time posting but just wanted to point this out.


Sony most definitely care about that as they initially had Horzion Forbidden West to be just no free upgrade until people complained and they changed their minds. https://www.videogameschronicle.com...ests-ps4-page-confirming-its-free-ps5-update/
I thought Sony initially said that they would provide free upgrades for cross-gen launch titles, which included HFW, but then Sony changed their minds, which was what caused people to complain in the first place.
 
I thought Sony initially said that they would provide free upgrades for cross-gen launch titles, which included HFW, but then Sony changed their minds, which was what caused people to complain in the first place.
I don’t think Sony ever said anything about free upgrades?
 
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Why fuck with the golden goose?
I'm not advocating for this, but if the hardware specs aren't lining up to fit within the constraints of a hybrid system like Switch, then perhaps the form factor is not what we are expecting. I want Switch to get another generation, its been great.
 
famitsu is still a gaming magazine. context clues would be enough to rule out anything not gaming related, and that includes IBM

my best read of it is, an analyst heard of some big wig from Nvidia visiting Nintendo and that's it. they're being deliberately coy as to not name names and end up like Mochizuki. anything beyond "nvidia visits nintendo" is just speculation and what we can surmise isn't even that interesting. maybe Nvidia wanted to personally visit nintendo to see the fruits of the hardware. maybe it's a formal lunch/dinner to celebrate the partnership

maybe it's fucking Lisa Su visiting Team Asobo
 
I thought Sony initially said that they would provide free upgrades for cross-gen launch titles, which included HFW, but then Sony changed their minds, which was what caused people to complain in the first place.
You'd have to provide a source of that but i don't recall anything like that.
Edit: You may be thinking of them setting the record that GT7 and GoW:R were paid upgrades, after backpedaling about Horzion's.
 
the idea has been throroughly discounted here but I would 100% buy a Switch HOME or whatever you want to call it with more powerful hardware. I find the Switch far too uncomfortable to play handheld nor do I generally want to game outside of the home envrionment. I believe there is an audience maybe not as bigger one but if this hypothetical HOME version launched 1-2 years before a more powerful portable it would absolutely sell. clearly the Switch platform is not constrained to having to be a hybrid - see Switch Lite.

but why the need for more expensive mobile tech in a home system? doesn't make much sense but investment spent on the SOC could be salvaged by bringing such a thing to market at a lower price (no screen) while the 3nm portable version ships in 2025. it could be a nice looking smaller system too, like a mini Gamecube lol.
 
the idea has been throroughly discounted here but I would 100% buy a Switch HOME or whatever you want to call it with more powerful hardware. I find the Switch far too uncomfortable to play handheld nor do I generally want to game outside of the home envrionment. I believe there is an audience maybe not as bigger one but if this hypothetical HOME version launched 1-2 years before a more powerful portable it would absolutely sell.

but why the need for more expensive mobile tech in a home system? doesn't make much sense but investment spent on the SOC could be salvaged by bringing such a thing to market at a lower price (no screen) while the 3nm portable version ships in 2025. it could be a nice looking smaller system too, like a mini Gamecube lol.
Basically a TV-only version to squeeze the sweet power of the SoC first? Hm, could be but they'll 100% want to have the final hybrid configuration out, first.
 
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Clearly Jensen is visiting Nintendo because work has been completed on the new Switch model and they need to start talking about technology for the 2029 Switch.
Add the obligatory /s

:p

(Though I do expect it to happen anyway for future platforms)
 
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the idea has been throroughly discounted here but I would 100% buy a Switch HOME or whatever you want to call it with more powerful hardware. I find the Switch far too uncomfortable to play handheld nor do I generally want to game outside of the home envrionment. I believe there is an audience maybe not as bigger one but if this hypothetical HOME version launched 1-2 years before a more powerful portable it would absolutely sell. clearly the Switch concept is not constrained having to be a hybrid - see the Switch Lite.

but why the need for more expensive mobile tech in a home system? doesn't make much sense but investment spent on the SOC could be salvaged by bringing such a thing to market at a lower price (no screen) while the 3nm portable version ships in 2025. it could be a nice looking smaller system too, like a mini Gamecube lol.
I think a Switch 2.5 HOME is possible. If they get the transition to Switch 2 right with software working seemlessly across the whole line so long as the hardware can do it, I can absolutely see them introducing more members of the Switch 2 family to fit different niches. All playing the same games. Switch 2 Lite for on the go on a budget, Switch 2 Mini for a premium, subminiature device, Switch 2 with new Joy-Con and the Switch 2.X HOME with beefier internals (but no exclusives).
 
You'd have to provide a source of that but i don't recall anything like that.
Edit: You may be thinking of them setting the record that GT7 and GoW:R were paid upgrades, after backpedaling about Horzion's.


Additionally, we know that the PS4 community will transition to PS5 at different times, and we’re happy to announce PS4 versions of some of our exclusives. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Sackboy A Big Adventure, and Horizon Forbidden West will also launch on PS4. While these three games were designed to take advantage of PS5 and its unique next-gen features like the ultra-high-speed SSD and DualSense controller, PS4 owners will also be able to enjoy these experiences when they launch. The PS4 digital versions of launch games include a free upgrade on both PS5 consoles, while the PS4 disc versions of these games include a free upgrade on the PS5 with Ultra HD Blu-Ray disc drive.
 
PS Blog: Sept 2020
Additionally, we know that the PS4 community will transition to PS5 at different times, and we’re happy to announce PS4 versions of some of our exclusives. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Sackboy A Big Adventure, and Horizon Forbidden West will also launch on PS4. While these three games were designed to take advantage of PS5 and its unique next-gen features like the ultra-high-speed SSD and DualSense controller, PS4 owners will also be able to enjoy these experiences when they launch. The PS4 digital versions of launch games include a free upgrade on both PS5 consoles, while the PS4 disc versions of these games include a free upgrade on the PS5 with Ultra HD Blu-Ray disc drive.
HFW was delayed from ““launch””, so they decided it wouldn’t get a free upgrade until people rightfully got mad because it was directly named as getting a free upgrade
 
This is a perfect time for victory laps and being a little childish.

I did. It’s interesting but not definitive. This analysis is muddied by the fact that there are various supply chain issues so many, many different companies have been stockpiling (higher safety stock) components in inventory to avoid/limit production shortfalls. So it could be either.

I’m more drawn to the Company’s forecast of 21m units. We know that they lowball the software guidance but not the hardware guidance.

Given that unit sales are down in most regions in the June quarter, it implies a much bigger second half of the fiscal year. It’s plausible to me they are planning some additional hardware for either the holiday season or March quarter. But it might be minor by our standards.

👍

We get total inventory every quarter, but not the mix of components.

I think we will know if it’s launching this year before the September quarter is released so it’s probably a moot point.

Inventory proved not to matter, like I argued repeatedly.

Am I going to be famous like @NateDrake ?

I hope not. Seems like a pain 😂

I’m still not famous like @NateDrake


I make forecasts for a living.

Being right about the future is hard, but I think that industry experts tend to get things more wrong than right because they are too bogged down in the details and cannot see the forest for the trees.

I think, broadly, this is largely a human psychology problem. Most people are linear thinkers, looking at how things are today, instead of trying to look around the corner.

This is not a revolutionary call. The business cycle is always coupled with an inventory cycle. We had a record surge in demand during Covid, now we have a record surge in capacity expansion, just as demand is either normalizing or falling below the trend line. Everyone likes to believe in the occasional new normal when it suits their interest; in this case it was tech and software companies. A new normal is exceptionally rare - even e-commerce penetration is declining.

Companies/analysts who called for a chip shortage in 2023-2024 are idiots.

Vash - 1
Chip producers - 0

I’ve said if before and I’ll say it again:

Chip shortage is going to become a chip surplus.

This is coming true.

RISC-V 😂
Worrying about BC in 2035 😂

I just want to get 2023 Drake right ❤️

Still trying to get 2023 right
 
Even if you meant no harm, please avoid singling out posts from so long ago, concerning purely speculative guesses. - Aurc, Josh5890, Red Monster
2024 has always felt like a pessimistic / late prediction with the context of devkits being in developer's hands since late 2020 and the progress of NVN2 in the Nvidia leak.

And we have people speculating 2024 or beyond? That doesn't track.

Are you still Team 2023?
 
I'm thinking 2024. POSSIBLY late 2024 or early 2025 but I am still hoping I'm way off and it's sooner then I'm thinking. I was really hoping this would launch with Tears of the Kingdom so I could ditch the old Switch and enjoy Zelda in potentially 4K/60 but there doesn't seem to be any journalists, insiders, etc that think it's happening this year at all (that I've seen) so yeah I'm basically Team 2024 or Beyond!
 
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So what are you concluding from this? That 12SM's ann 8 CPU cores cant fit within the power consumption limits Switch has? Even on a 4N process?
I was only commenting on the ability to hit that specific power draw with that specific clock.

Drake should be able to comfortably hit the original Switch’s clocks (or slightly higher) at the original Switch’s power draws on N4, based on everything we know.

Those clocks would be consistent with PS4+ levels of performance.

On a separate note, has there been any consideration that Nintendo might continue with the unified software library but will have multiple devices? Switch was always intended to be a family of systems, so perhaps Nintendo rolls out the home console first that is powered by Drake where thermals and power consumption are not of a concern and release the next gen portable Switch at a later date, potentially with far less GPU cores if its still using a 720p screen.

There has been consideration. In general, most of us think that’s a bad idea and unlikely.

Series S|X only worked because they launched at the same time, and Microsoft requires developers support both day-and-date. Supporting the smaller, less powerful SKU after the primary SKU launches is a nightmare for devs. Plus you’d wind up with two switches that don’t switch.
 
I don't think it will be late 2024 but I also don't think Nintendo necessarily has to launch it in the first half of the year either. That's entirely Nintendo's call.
Only to an extent. Nintendo doesn’t have full control over it, they have a partial control.
 
And that half sentence "Moreover, the direction of his destination..." is just a little too sly. But I don't know how they usually write stuff, maybe it is just like a TMZ gossip paparazzi for tech nerds.

Or does that blog only post excerpts from articles/columns? I guess that would make more sense. Once again, wait and see is the best course of action.
I read an alternative translation which suggested it was a conversation/interview. So more like "so the purpose of the visit is...?" "maybe just for Rapidus lol"
 
What even is a "Super VIP"? lol
It's an interesting term, I wonder if there is something lost in the translation. I would assume* en executive whose mere presence indicates movement from a business partnership standpoint (which is why some folks track corporate jets).

Still, even if an IBM VP went to Nintendo, I wouldn't assume it means any sort of deal is done as perhaps the executive was in town for other business and opted to visit with friends Nintendo, or perhaps IBM is pitching some sort of solution for backend or cloud components. Jumping to IBM providing solutions for a shipping device is a bit much.

I originally wondered if Reggie was the VIP*, based on absolutely nothing.

*Assumptions assumptions.
 
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I think not, given the capital I, capital F "IF". Like him I also doubt it's been delayed. It would not help the third party support situation if they were told "Q2 at the latest" then get told "Sike! Q4". That would leave a bad taste in people's mouths. If they've been sampling the processor for a year, had dev kits out for 2+ years and told Devs to go gold for Q2, I don't see how they could delay it at this point. Especially if the rumours about manufacturing ramping up are true (which I'd tend to believe, what with the Zelda OLED being manufactured and ready so far in advanced, probably to make room for something else. Not much point in 5 months supply of ZOLEDs.)
This is an interesting point. Given Nintendo knew about Zelda’s delay basically a year ago, the early production of the ZOLED being due to the game’s original late 2022 release is doubtful to me, especially because the Splatoon OLED released exactly 2 weeks before Splatoon 3 (who knows when it was manufactured though) despite Splatoon being swapped with Xenoblade 3. It could be as you said, that they want to make room for manufacturing something else.

Like I’ve said I’m pretty confident some kind of hardware this year, maybe not T239 but still something like there has been every odd year since 2017.
 
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Yeah it feels like the famitsu article is meaningless as far as we're concerned. If it's referring to someone who's likely there to visit Rapidus it's probably an IBM exec and not Jensen.
Not that it necessarily means anything, but the article was made specifically to suggest there is a link with new Nintendo hardware because this company and this person were involved with the previous one and a similar visit happened at that time. It could be complete BS, but I am not sure why we are reading that much into the Rapidus comment while dismissing all the rest of the information presented.
 
I do hope we get some clarification about this delay/ canned hardware situation, because nothing makes sense about it.
It would make sense if it was about a pro based on TX1 hardware back from 2019/2020, but it certainly wouldn't make sense if it was referring to Drake
 
the idea has been throroughly discounted here but I would 100% buy a Switch HOME or whatever you want to call it with more powerful hardware. I find the Switch far too uncomfortable to play handheld nor do I generally want to game outside of the home envrionment. I believe there is an audience maybe not as bigger one but if this hypothetical HOME version launched 1-2 years before a more powerful portable it would absolutely sell. clearly the Switch platform is not constrained to having to be a hybrid - see Switch Lite.

but why the need for more expensive mobile tech in a home system? doesn't make much sense but investment spent on the SOC could be salvaged by bringing such a thing to market at a lower price (no screen) while the 3nm portable version ships in 2025. it could be a nice looking smaller system too, like a mini Gamecube lol.

I don't necessarily understand this want of a stationary Switch because I'm not sure how a normal switch doesn't already suit the needs of a tv console gamer. You having a problem using it handheld is easily solved by just not undocking.

They can recup the R&D by simply putting out more of what people want, a more powerful switch. Not by giving people who only want a home console (of which there'd be more powerful choices) just that and ignoring the hybrid/handheld enjoyers for two years.
I'm also not convinced Nintendo would put out a clearly more powerful version of a Switch....only locked to one that cannot switch. Sharing that same hardware between a home and lite version? Sure. One being more powerful than the other the base hybrid? Nah
 
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