Fwiw I see most people expecting it’s going to be as powerful as last gen (with the added benefit of DLSS pushing it above last gen) which I don’t think is unrealistic to expect, it’s pretty in line with the previous consoles Nintendo have released. Last gen performance with modern refinements
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
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I would argue that being a gen behind gives Nintendo a good amount of time to figure out how to manage and control budgets and find ways to manage dev time and costs imo.
Serif
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What are these unrealistic expectations? The current Switch exceeds PS3/360 and can receive PS4/XBO downports. I anticipate this same sort of relationship with Switch 2, stronger than PS4/XBO and capable of receiving PS5/XSX ports, which corresponds to the estimates drawn from the leak. If these expectations are too high then I don't know what to think.
Nvidia has a product for that, its called Orin.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I think I've mentioned before how my expectations are pretty modest, but let's not pretend that those test scores can be for "literally anything else". They're for a an Orin chip for Nintendo. Probably Drake. But they're only developer targets, the actual chip may well fall below them. Still, targets are targets and they would have had a decent idea of the chip's capabilities by time those tests were done.
It's not wrong to have hope. I have hope, and keep my expectations in check. My expectations' bottom figures are still figures I think are compelling; 1-1.8TF. Fact is the Drake can't really GO any slower than that. 1.8TF in TV mode + DLSS would be very compelling to me. However, evidence suggests we may see quite a bit more than that, and that would make me happy, but it's not something I'm assured of.
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As suspected, nothing to be announced from NVidia. No consumer product announced at the CONSUMER Electronic Show.
Nintendo is the first customer for this custom chip(my deduction).
Nintendo is the first customer for this custom chip(my deduction).
HankyPanky
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weren't some of these tests also targeting 1080p resolution?
this would be ripe for speculation on the system coming later. if the screen is getting changed there's more scope for a potential hardware overhaul. still something doesn't add up with the power usage & Orin on 8nm, a bigger GPU. clearly there's some missing info to connect the dots.
this would be ripe for speculation on the system coming later. if the screen is getting changed there's more scope for a potential hardware overhaul. still something doesn't add up with the power usage & Orin on 8nm, a bigger GPU. clearly there's some missing info to connect the dots.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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so we are safe to continue coping?
D
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This isn’t aimed at you in particular but I really wish Nintendo enthusiasts in general would stop acting like victims surrounding this issue.
Their hardware hasn’t been up to snuff in one way or another for the best part of 20 years. I’ve heard developers moaning about it in pubs for almost 20 years whether it was storage media, online infrastructure or compute power or all three. They’ve also alienated themselves from the rest of the industry (for good or for bad depending on your opinion) with motion controls, dual screens, being a console generation behind the others with regards to compute, hybrid mobile hardware and the limitations that brings.
Sony and Microsoft offer a box that pleases third party publisher and developers alike with their cheap storage media, compute power, they both have an online infrastructures light years ahead of Nintendo and they have both just recently fulfilled one of third party developers most requested features - an SSD with at least 1gb/s of bandwidth (they went above and beyond that and offered hardware 5-10x faster than asked for). That’s why they both get every single game that comes to console.
No the entire gaming industry isn’t part of some secret new world order trying to squeeze Nintendo out of the industry. Most developers and third party business types adore Nintendo and see them as an integral part of getting especially younger and family audiences into the console space.
Drake is powerful enough to run most modern games that also run on Series S due in part to most future third party games using UE5 and in part due to DLSS which at times can run the same game with 4x less compute needed.
The number or ports will only increase with time.
Link_enfant
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Does it make a 2023 release more likely, or even to be expected? I just want reasons to have hope somehow
I think everyone is just shooting in the dark, as far as release date goes.Does it make a 2023 release more likely, or even to be expected? I just want reasons to have hope somehow
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Special Editions don't have an impact on new hardware releases. Like fwd-bwd said, the production of the Zelda OLED doesn't impact Drake production. It could still release this year.Does it make a 2023 release more likely, or even to be expected? I just want reasons to have hope somehow
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It just means that the likely year for release is this year. And that’s all I’m gonna say about this lol. No later than 2023 based on all we know from the software and hardware side. Unless they pull a switch. Due to other catastrophic issues.
Vash
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of course!
CocaFormula
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Jokes aside, I think the SM number is actually the piece of information that makes everything a bit odd. We have been hearing of a 4K revision for years, but the leaked T239 suddenly jumped past even our wildest speculations, as it is a huge jump worthy of a next generation machine.
At the same time the expected die size would suggest this thing would be only feasible with a smaller node (and therefore much later), yet we have evidence that it's almost ready for production.
If we had even the slightest hint of an "intermediate" SOC existing, I would almost be sure T239 is and always was designed for a successor in 2024/25. A (shelved?) 2022/23 revision has always been a hard fit for this chip TBH
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Yep also probably a pain to port x86 software to ARM, plus CPU strains.
HankyPanky
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new consoles typically aren't launching with Special Editions off the bat. Zelda OLED was always a given IMO.
on the Nvidia front we were told early on before any of the leaks that T239 was custom for Nintendo. precisely no info that's presented itself since then has suggested otherwise.
NintenDuvo
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Did anytime in 2022 , Nintendo still say there are in the middle of the Switchs life cycle?
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I know you said this isn’t directed at me, but you read the comment in the wrong way. No one should expect a whole lot of AAA games to hit the Nintendo switch 2. And this has nothing to do with wanting to squeeze nintendo out of this industry (which is nonsense!), or whether it is performant enough or not. It has to do with something that’s completely unrelated to all this. And we have one platform that’s on the market that is similar enough to another platform and yet there are games that just don’t hit this platform. And they have a fanbase online that is upset about this and they keep mentioning how games keep omitting their platform. Even though there’s nothing wrong with this platform, it’s just in my mind no one should always expect every single game to actually hit their platform of choice. It’s just not realistic.
And no one should expect that just because UE5 happens to support the switch 2, that it means anything for AAA support. It’ll come when it comes. That’s all.
There’s also the fact that the Nintendo switch to is going to be different hardware in the end of the day architecturally, so it’s not going to be literally straightforward and easy for these developers. People should just expect games to happen from third parties, but don’t expect a whole tsunami of third-party games from all developers of all facets. We have to wait for it to be seen how it’s going to pan out with a Nintendo switch 2.
Truno
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Furukawa statement February 2022:
Source:
Nintendo Says The Switch Is In The Middle Its Lifecycle
Doing some math, that means the Switch will be around for another five years, right?
www.gameinformer.com
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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Perhaps Nintendo Switch (2nd generation) doesn't restart the timer from Nintendo's perspective.Furukawa statement February 2022:
Source:
Nintendo Says The Switch Is In The Middle Its Lifecycle
Doing some math, that means the Switch will be around for another five years, right?
you have to remember that 8nm is based on an old node. TSMC 5nm and Samsung 5nm are also old by now. they wouldn't be "much later" because they're already looking to the next steps ahead. 3nm from both will be hitting production this year
2022/2023 on smaller-than-8nm was never unrealistic
Codename_Steam
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Will Drake be closer to the Xbox Series S than Switch was to the Xbox One S in 2017?
Important to note, all they mean by that is that the Switch will keep getting games for a long time. Which everyone expects, regardless of when Drake launches.Furukawa statement February 2022:
Source:
Nintendo Says The Switch Is In The Middle Its Lifecycle
Doing some math, that means the Switch will be around for another five years, right?
OP
OP
After enabling DLSS, definitely a possibility. Before enabling DLSS, definitely not.
HankyPanky
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i also think by ten year (or longer) lifespan that includes any system launched under the Switch moniker. as well as being indicative they intend to support the base model with software for the whole duration.
To boldly go...
where no Mario has gone before...
Nintendo Switch: The Next Generation
where no Mario has gone before...
Nintendo Switch: The Next Generation
Concernt
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Quite a bit closer.
Huh? I’m confused.
I was on the other side of this debate 2-ish months ago, and thought the conclusion that docked Drake could be 2.5tf-4tf before DLSS?
If we treat DLSS as a 2x multiplier then the effective tf would be 5.0tf-8.0tf.
Series S is 4 tf while Switch is 0.6tf and One S was 1.2.
So Switch is 0.5x a One S but could match the Series S at the high end, on the GPU side, before DLSS.
Meanwhile, I thought going from 3 A57s to 7 A78s was a bigger cpu jump that what we saw between One S and Series S as well.
Where am. I mistaken?
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It can be used that way, yes. Basically, instead of rendering at 1080p they can render at 900 or 720p even and then use the resources freed up by that resolution drop to enable extra effects or shore up framerate or such. Then use DLSS to get it back to 1080p.
Gotdatmoneyy
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Clocks will really play a part here. Still lots of stuff we don't know.
It should be closer and the effective results should be pretty good but a Zen 2 class CPU @ 3.6GHz is going to be a sizeable hurdle to overcome even with an A78 clocked at 1.5GHz (which is in or around what I think this next gen system will clock the CPU at).
Even with DLSS there are just laws of physics that exist and are not going to be broken.
Goodtwin
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Until Nintendo announces the Switch successor, they will continue to portray to consumers that the Switch is well within its lifecycle. They do not want to give any indication to consumers that their current platforms days are numbered, even if they are. With Nintendo no longer having a portable and home console, it seems reasonable that they would want to maintain sales of their previous console for a few years until they can build up a large userbase for their new platform.
Lancelot
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I'd stop worrying about the hardware itself if I was you all. A lot of people here aren't considering the fact GCN1.0 which is the architecture used for PS4 and PS4 Pro is ancient af, and even 1.3/1.4 TFLOPS from a handheld (Ampere) Drake are going to crush the 1.8 from there. They aren't a direct measurement of performance, and this isn't considering new rendering techniques like Mesh Shaders which are directly supported on hardware and will make the thing punch way above PS4's computation altogether. The A78Cs on it are also ages ahead from the Jaguar cores no matter which versions we're talking about.
We've been always looking at PS4 and PS4 Pro in handheld and docked respectively with no tricks, a PS4 Pro in handheld DLSS and a Series S with better raytracing in docked DLSS.
We've been always looking at PS4 and PS4 Pro in handheld and docked respectively with no tricks, a PS4 Pro in handheld DLSS and a Series S with better raytracing in docked DLSS.
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Sounds like it would suit Switch perfectly
bloopland33
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I wish I still shared the hope some of you do. Regarding TotK OLED, if Drake is a simultaneous launch with that game, I find it hard to believe they’d sell a SE OLED for the game they’re also using to promote and drive sales of their new hardware.
If I decouple Drake from TotK, a launch in 2023 seems more plausible, I admit. Although I’m not sure why they wouldn’t have done a TotK launch if it’s coming months later.
But more importantly for a 2023 CY launch, I can’t square it with Nate saying his H1 2023 hardware was shelved. I know there’s a lot of question marks we have about what Nate knows that will be cleared up in his podcast, but even with that one data point we do have from him - H1 2023 device shelved - in the event Drake still releases this year, Nintendo shelved one device for H1 this year and replaced it with another months later?
I don’t know. If there’s some context or faulty logic here that I’m missing or mixing up from the roller coaster that has been the past week, happy to be corrected.
I do still have some hope until we hear Nate’s podcast. I want this device in 2023 still, bad!
If I decouple Drake from TotK, a launch in 2023 seems more plausible, I admit. Although I’m not sure why they wouldn’t have done a TotK launch if it’s coming months later.
But more importantly for a 2023 CY launch, I can’t square it with Nate saying his H1 2023 hardware was shelved. I know there’s a lot of question marks we have about what Nate knows that will be cleared up in his podcast, but even with that one data point we do have from him - H1 2023 device shelved - in the event Drake still releases this year, Nintendo shelved one device for H1 this year and replaced it with another months later?
I don’t know. If there’s some context or faulty logic here that I’m missing or mixing up from the roller coaster that has been the past week, happy to be corrected.
I do still have some hope until we hear Nate’s podcast. I want this device in 2023 still, bad!
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Do you know what thread you're in
LiC
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I think this is a misread. If the Switch platform was winding down any time soon, you're right that they wouldn't draw attention to it, but the president making a point to say the literal opposite in public statements is not part of that. You don't have to say anything about the lifecycle, you can just say "hey look at all these games we're releasing in 2022/2023, isn't Switch great?" The fact that Furukawa repeatedly said the middle of the lifecycle quote is a clear commitment to keep selling and releasing games for the platform for years to come. The 3DS was being pumped a lot even when it was clear it was at the end of its life and being replaced by the Switch, but at no point did Nintendo commit out loud to years more support they weren't actually planning.
Lancelot
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I've been reading this long enough to know what the specs in the NVN2 documents mean. Besides, even Pascal was infinitely more efficient than GCN already. Ampere is an absolute slaughter in any case. This isn't fighting last gen consoles, Drake is directly going for Series S.
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Here’s the funny thing, if Nvidia didn’t announce for a consumer product, and it was meant for cars, they literally have an entire platform dedicated to this that is also based on the Ampere architecture and it is also a system on chip.
and Drake has no use for cars when ORIN exists because it performs literally worse. Why would you risk with something that performs worse than the platform you completely have dedicated for this? I think this squandered any possibility of this truly being meant for a car or for a consumer product in the immediate future that is not Nintendo. At least for now. Or until further notice.
Yes: Drake performs worse for its use case in automotive. Henceforth it isn’t right for a car.
and Drake has no use for cars when ORIN exists because it performs literally worse. Why would you risk with something that performs worse than the platform you completely have dedicated for this? I think this squandered any possibility of this truly being meant for a car or for a consumer product in the immediate future that is not Nintendo. At least for now. Or until further notice.
Yes: Drake performs worse for its use case in automotive. Henceforth it isn’t right for a car.
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I wrote about this before. Mochizuki's Bloomberg report was the only source including that "middle of its lifecycle" quote in Feb. 2022. Any other articles saying the same were simply regurgitating his story.Furukawa statement February 2022:
Source:
Nintendo Says The Switch Is In The Middle Its Lifecycle
Doing some math, that means the Switch will be around for another five years, right?
That Furukawa quote was not in Nintendo's Feb. 3rd official transcript. No other reputable media—not even Bloomberg Japan's report written by another journalist—contained that sentence. AFAIK, the last time Furukawa declared the Switch being "at the mid-point of its lifecycle" was on Nov. 5, 2021.
Unless Mochizuki got an exclusive interview, which not even the Bloomberg Japan reporter attended, it doesn't seem an accurate recollection. This wasn't the only time that I questioned certain details of his articles/tweets in this thread, and I'd encourage people to compare his stories with other major media reports (or at the very least, Bloomberg Japan).
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I am unshakeable in this belief but people (I talk with anyways) never seem to take it seriously because they only see support for Switch dying the moment Switch 2 is announced.Perhaps Nintendo Switch (2nd generation) doesn't restart the timer from Nintendo's perspective.
Apple didn't kill the first iPhone the moment the iPhone 2 launched
Everything you say is true, but the reality is we don’t know the volume of special edition OLEDS produced. For all we know, the special editions are a great way to sell off more Marikos, clearly the target audience is collectors and particular franchise-lovers
The chances of new hardware with TOTK is slim but not impossible, and the chances of some new hardware this year at all (not necessarily drake) I’d say are pretty high because new hardware HAS released every other year since 2017.
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For the record, I am on holiday 2023. As the target.
Much more relevant example than the iPhone: almost every major ps5 and series game since those launched had last gen versions.
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My theory is that that Zelda OLED will be announced for a late Feb/early March release, around Zelda's 37th Anniversary. And then a couple months later the Switch 2nd Gen will launch with Tears of the Kingdom. I can see the Zelda OLED launching way before the game as the marketing cycle begins.
Lancelot
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Except engines like Unity already had literal Switch exporters built in...? This isn't the 2000s, ARM architectures are widely supported and will be well documented to Drake developers like the TX1 already was. There's a reason NVN2 exists, and why Switch already had rather anormal 3rd party support as it is, some of the concerns mentioned here make me worry about the thread, lol.
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