StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Concernt]

@ReddDreadtheLead
Sorry to @ you again, this was meant to be in my earlier reply.

We know the chip, T239, is FOR Nintendo, and for a "Switch" device, a hybrid. We know that it was in production months ago. So unless production stopped once they had final units to test, that means a release later than 2023 would have them sitting on expensive SOCs for upwards of 18 months. That costs money and has huge opportunity cost. I simply do not see that as realistic.

The only reason to delay would be availability of software, but that never stopped Xbox or PlayStation from launching when they did. Or DS, which launched with a demo as a pack-in.

Either you have to suppose Nvidia is making software for a chip they don't have, Nintendo will sit on this chip for 18+ months, or Nvidia has some other product that can alone eat 6-12 months of supply.

Furthermor, it appears Nintendo has been stockpiling components, and expensive components at that, since at least May of last year. For what? A Nintendo Switch platform that, year on year, slowly goes down in sales numbers? Are they going to sit on 2 billion worth of raw materials for 2 years just in case?

I'm not saying it's impossible to think that they would, because they could, but I do not think it is likely.

 

[Codename_Steam]

Oh fuck my head hurts.

Happy New Year to you all.

1.

All the past weeks info has taught us is that Drake is no longer being positioned as part of the current Switch family of systems and is now going to be positioned as a true next generation Nintendo product (I’m actually pleased to hear that because it will mean more games will be exclusive to it quicker and new games will not be held back by a 2015 mobile chip).

2.

A special collectors edition OLED doesn’t mean a new Switch can’t arrive on the same day (cardboard, stickers, OLED shells and Joycons aren’t the issue with manufacturing it’s the new main board that can be tricky to build in mass numbers in this new era).

3.

Drake is still planned for Q2 ‘23 as of December’22. Zelda 2 launch obviously.

I’ll post more info if I get any.

Sorry when I blew my top the other day I just thought the abuse Nate was getting from some was totally shitty. My post was out of order though so apologies <3 x

Happy new year! Glad to have you back!

 

[Concernt]

That is not at all comparable because Nvidia’s only tasked with creating a product for their client who is paying for them to actually create the product, and it was information was acquired illegally. We wouldn’t even know that T239 was actually related to Nintendo, unless it was acquired through illegal means. There has been zero comment from a developer about this hardware, therefore should we now believe that 2025/2026 is the time of release? Simple.

if the answer is yes, that due to no recent developer comments or leaks about this, then there is no hardware anytime soon and people can’t cling to 2024 as a release timing basing it on that factoid.


If no, one cannot use precedence to determine how this hardware cycle will play out because it does not fall under the same situation as those previous hardware cycles.




That said, I don’t believe H1 2023 at all, so I have no horse in this race.

It absolutely is comparable when they're submitting what appears to be finished code for what appears to be a finished chip for it! Different, absolutely, but comparable!

The means by which information was obtained is in no way relevant to whether it is factual or not.
Then are you suggesting they sit on a finished chip design for THREE YEARS before release? Doesn't that seem a bit hard to believe?

 

[manfromthedam]

Their other option is this May. When they have perhaps their biggest, most ambitious, most expensive, most anticipated game ever created launching.

Glad to see you're back, seems like the intense dooming is done on here for now .

Zelda is Nintendo's flagship series and has been for a while now. Good to keep that in mind with this topic, as you say.

 

[Zaimokuza]

Not specifically told TotK but Q2 is Zelda launch so it lines up with Q2.

I do wonder what game people think is huge enough to launch a next generation Switch if it’s not TotK?

TotK is May, the new 3d Mario is almost certainly October this year. I guess Mario Kart 9 in March 2024 then? because by that time we will have just had a new Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem and Pikmin the year prior. Luigi’s Mansion is an October franchise and probably not due until Oct ‘26 due to Covid hampering it’s first two years of production. Bayonetta 4 (if 3’s sales even justified it) is 4 years off. We’ve just had a Xenoblade game. We’ve just had a new Splatoon. Metroid is not a big enough franchise to even exist for years to Nintendo nevermind to launch a next generation console with Prime 4.

A new Warriors spin off game is not big enough neither is a new Yoshi / Kirby / DK platformer or any Mario Sports spin off title.

Pokemon has never traditionally been used to sell Nintendo hardware in terms of a home / hybrid device either. God knows what is happening with Smash whether they will even make another anytime soon with their director seemingly retiring and if they do will they think more DLC passes will be the way to go (like the MK8D DLC) because really what can they do with Smash at this point that hasn’t already been done in past titles or that’s in Ultimate.

So the only option left seems to be Mario Kart 9/10 (do we count the mobile game as a main line entry?). Yes the team has been quiet but they have also done / helped with Tour, the physical toy car game and been making all the DLC tracks. Is next Spring enough time to make a new impressive entry in series and do Nintendo even think Mario Kart is strong enough to launch a next generation system on its own without a 2017 like spate of big titles to come thundering in one after the other after the other. Mario Kart seems to be a more of a complimentary purchase for Nintendo consoles rather than the main reason to buy the console imo.

Their other option is this May. When they have perhaps their biggest, most ambitious, most expensive, most anticipated game ever created launching. It’s also a franchise that successfully launched Wii, new 3DS, Switch and Switch Lite. They also have a new Pikmin, 3D Mario and perhaps Prime 4 to follow it up and keep momentum into ‘24 when a possible new Mario Kart would arrive to keep interest in the new console up.

You really don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes or have contacts in the industry to work this out. All that has changed is it’s almost certainly going to be positioned as their “next generation” system instead of a Switch “Pro/4k”

If I hear that plans have changed once my mates go back to work I’ll let y’all know but it doesn’t seem like anything has changed the kits simply got stronger and stronger with more memory throughout ‘22.

As someone who owns Brawl, Smash 4 for WiiU and has played a decent amount of Ultimate with a friend, I really hope Nintendo just Deluxes Ultimate and uses all that manpower to develop something else. A 1080p handheld/4k docked Ultimate Deluxe with a better online infrastructure would still sell 10 million copies, drive online subscriptions and allow Nintendo to fill their lineup with more games.

As for Pokemon, I wouldn't be surprised if all titles until gen 10 were still developed for the original Switch.


What I don't get is why is everyone assuming Nintendo is delaying Drake? No one ever had the real release date, it was all speculation or alleged insider information. Nintendo could have simply scheduled the thing for 2024 since the beginning and maybe have given out dev kits in advance to have partners get familiar with the hardware and develop exclusive games. It may also have been a way to allow third parties to insert it in their pipeline for multiplatform games

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The idea of TotK being some ideal launch title is pretty silly to me.

Twilight Princess and BotW were crossgen launch titles that were extremely popular, but the context is incredibly different. Twilight Princess and BotW launched on old systems that were very unpopular and new systems that were pretty similar in power to the old systems. People really HAD to get a Wii or Switch to get Zelda because they probably didn't have a GameCube or WiiU. That is not the case if TotK is a cross-gen launch title.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo has a PS4 caliber system, they probably want to launch the Switch 2 with a game that shows off its capabilities. TotK looks fine, but it definitely looks like a Switch game. They probably would want a game that looks nearly as good as say Horizon Zero Dawn or Death Stranding to show that this is a whole leap. The WiiU launching with the very graphically unimpressive NSMBU probably hurt the system a good bit compared to if it launched with 3D World or Mario Kart 8. A 4K60 TotK would obviously be appealing, but it wouldn't really be the launch showpiece that you need to show how powerful your system is.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

@ReddDreadtheLead
Sorry to @ you again, this was meant to be in my earlier reply.

We know the chip, T239, is FOR Nintendo, and for a "Switch" device, a hybrid. We know that it was in production months ago. So unless production stopped once they had final units to test, that means a release later than 2023 would have them sitting on expensive SOCs for upwards of 18 months. That costs money and has huge opportunity cost. I simply do not see that as realistic.

The only reason to delay would be availability of software, but that never stopped Xbox or PlayStation from launching when they did. Or DS, which launched with a demo as a pack-in.

Either you have to suppose Nvidia is making software for a chip they don't have, Nintendo will sit on this chip for 18+ months, or Nvidia has some other product that can alone eat 6-12 months of supply.

Furthermor, it appears Nintendo has been stockpiling components, and expensive compoentns at that, since at least May of last year. For what? A Nintendo Switch platform that, year on year, slowly goes down in sales numbers? Are they going to sit on 2 billion worth of raw materials for 2 years just in case?

I'm not saying it's impossible to think that they would, because they could, but I do not think it is likely.

It absolutely is comparable when they're submitting what appears to be finished code for what appears to be a finished chip for it! Different, absolutely, but comparable!

You’re not understanding what I’m getting at, and like I said that situation with nvidia was completely accidental that we came across it. Absolutely nothing like that will happen again.

They didn’t leak it, it was stolen information through illegal means. That is, 10000000% not at all comparable to a developer leaking specs on the internet with frequencies and memory and all that jazz.

There has been absolutely zero leaks from a developer, and henceforth since we haven’t had that, should we now assume that the new hardware isn’t out for another 2 to 3 years from this date, January 1, 2023? The whole premise of the arguments that I saw on the last page were that “because hardware developer kits were circulating for 1-2 years prior from launch for this system from this other company, and that thousands of people would have known prior to the systems launch especially 6 months out” and were using that to base it not releasing in 2023, however, what is giving people the idea that’s going to launch in 2024 by the extension?

Nothing is actually supporting 2023 and by extension for 2024, if we entertain the previous arguments that have been presented, then the only logical timing that it can release is 2025 or 2026. That is the point I’m getting across that either you believe something henceforth you also believe by extension it is not coming anytime soon. Or you do not believe it, and you cannot apply the previous examples that happened earlier in this scenario, as they are two completely different circumstances.


But like I said, I have no horse in the race for the first half of 2023, I don’t believe that at all at this point. I’m just pointing out that there’s an admittance to something without realization of what that is.




also, happy new year

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You’re not understanding what I’m getting at, and like I said that situation with nvidia was completely accidental that we came across it. Absolutely nothing like that will happen again.

They didn’t leak it, it was stolen information through illegal means. That is, 10000000% not at all comparable to a developer leaking specs on the internet with frequencies and memory and all that jazz.

There has been absolutely zero leaks from a developer, and henceforth since we haven’t had that, should we now assume that the new hardware isn’t out for another 2 to 3 years from this date, January 1, 2023? The whole premise of the arguments that I saw on the last page were that “because hardware developer kits were circulating for 1-2 years prior from launch for this system from this other company, and that thousands of people would have known prior to the systems launch especially 6 months out” and were using that to base it not releasing in 2023, however, what is giving people the idea that’s going to launch in 2024 by the extension?

Nothing is actually supporting 2023 and by extension for 2024, if we entertain the previous arguments that have been presented, then the only logical timing that it can release is 2025 or 2026. That is the point I’m getting across that either you believe something henceforth you also believe by extension it is not coming anytime soon. Or you do not believe it, and you cannot apply the previous examples that happened earlier in this scenario, as they are two completely different circumstances.


But like I said, I have no horse in the race for the first half of 2023, I don’t believe that at all at this point. I’m just pointing out that there’s an admittance to something without realization of what that is.




also, happy new year

Well 23 months from now seems extremely more probable than five months from now is the idea as far fewer people need to know 23 months away from release than 5.

A November 2024 launch is one of those "yeah, you could keep this secret" timeframes whereas a May 2023 launch is not.

 

[Paxie]

How are 1 and 3 irreconsilable?

How many special edition 3DS units came out between October 2016 and December 2017?

I'm not talking about them releasing last-gen special editions in general, I'm talking about them releasing a last-gen special edition revolving around a title that's also the centerpiece of the new gen. It'd be like if Nintendo commissioned a LE GCN to promote Twilight Princess's Wii release

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

A November 2024 launch is one of those "yeah, you could keep this secret" timeframes whereas a May 2023 launch is not.

lol

 

[Concernt]

You’re not understanding what I’m getting at, and like I said that situation with nvidia was completely accidental that we came across it. Absolutely nothing like that will happen again.

They didn’t leak it, it was stolen information through illegal means. That is, 10000000% not at all comparable to a developer leaking specs on the internet with frequencies and memory and all that jazz.

There has been absolutely zero leaks from a developer, and henceforth since we haven’t had that, should we now assume that the new hardware isn’t out for another 2 to 3 years from this date, January 1, 2023? The whole premise of the arguments that I saw on the last page were that “because hardware developer kits were circulating for 1-2 years prior from launch for this system from this other company, and that thousands of people would have known prior to the systems launch especially 6 months out” and were using that to base it not releasing in 2023, however, what is giving people the idea that’s going to launch in 2024 by the extension?

Nothing is actually supporting 2023 and by extension for 2024, if we entertain the previous arguments that have been presented, then the only logical timing that it can release is 2025 or 2026. That is the point I’m getting across that either you believe something henceforth you also believe by extension it is not coming anytime soon. Or you do not believe it, and you cannot apply the previous examples that happened earlier in this scenario, as they are two completely different circumstances.


But like I said, I have no horse in the race for the first half of 2023, I don’t believe that at all at this point. I’m just pointing out that there’s an admittance to something without realization of what that is.




also, happy new year

Nothing is supporting? I suppose that is a matter of opinion, but something I quite disagree with.

Comparable does not necessarily mean similar. Simply able to be compared! We've been comparing it for ages! Though again, I suppose a matter of opinion.

Oh well. I have no skin in this game, I mean, no money to be made or lost either way, but I remain firmly on the side of 2023 unless proven otherwise. They won't sit on their hands for 36 months, I don't think.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

lol

Yeah, I'm sorry, but thousands of people would need to be in the know at this point and one of them would have talked to Jason or the WSJ.

The idea that Nintendo is launching a system in 5 months that almost no one knows about seems extremely implausible from a marketing, manufacturing, promotion, third party relations, etc perspective.

 

[Concernt]

I'm not talking about them releasing last-gen special editions in general, I'm talking about them releasing a last-gen special edition revolving around a title that's also the centerpiece of the new gen. It'd be like if Nintendo commissioned a LE GCN to promote Twilight Princess's Wii release

I do not think Wii and GameCube is quite the same situation. Plus, I have not been one to suggest Zelda is even what it will launch with.

 

[Zaimokuza]

The idea of TotK being some ideal launch title is pretty silly to me.

Twilight Princess and BotW were crossgen launch titles that were extremely popular, but the context is incredibly different. Twilight Princess and BotW launched on old systems that were very unpopular and new systems that were pretty similar in power to the old systems. People really HAD to get a Wii or Switch to get Zelda because they probably didn't have a GameCube or WiiU. That is not the case if TotK is a cross-gen launch title.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo has a PS4 caliber system, they probably want to launch the Switch 2 with a game that shows off its capabilities. TotK looks fine, but it definitely looks like a Switch game. They probably would want a game that looks nearly as good as say Horizon Zero Dawn or Death Stranding to show that this is a whole leap. The WiiU launching with the very graphically unimpressive NSMBU probably hurt the system a good bit compared to if it launched with 3D World or Mario Kart 8. A 4K60 TotK would obviously be appealing, but it wouldn't really be the launch showpiece that you need to show how powerful your system is.

I distinctly remember people making fun of the PS4 in 2013 and 2014 because Sony basically just sold remasters for it. Those remaster still looked better than the ps3 originals and were used as a selling point though.

Sony has also developed a bunch of ps4 games advertising them as ps5 games (Horizon 2 and Gow Ragnarok), Nintendo could do the same thing. Switch games also look so outdated compared to everything else that TotK running on a powerful system would make the difference immediately noticeable from trailers: light, detail, draw distance. I can't find it now, but there was a comparison between Atelier Ryza on both Switch and PS4 and the difference in foliage, bushes and blades of grass was so noticeable it made it difficult to think of the two versions as the same game.

That said, I think the Zelda OLED means we won't see Drake in 2023 sadly

 

[Concernt]

Yeah, I'm sorry, but thousands of people would need to be in the know at this point and one of them would have talked to Jason or the WSJ.

The idea that Nintendo is launching a system in 5 months that almost no one knows about seems extremely implausible from a marketing, manufacturing, promotion, third party relations, etc perspective.

Polygon knows about it

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I distinctly remember people making fun of the PS4 in 2013 and 2014 because Sony basically just sold remasters for it. Those remaster still looked better than the ps3 originals and were used as a selling point though.

Sony has also developed a bunch of ps4 games advertising them as ps5 games (Horizon 2 and Gow Ragnarok), Nintendo could do the same thing. Switch games also look so outdated compared to everything else that TotK running on a powerful system would make the difference immediately noticeable from trailers: light, detail, draw distance. I can't find it now, but there was a comparison between Atelier Ryza on both Switch and PS4 and the difference in foliage, bushes and blades of grass was so noticeable it made it difficult to think of it as the same game.

That said, I think the Zelda OLED means we won't see Drake in 2023 sadly

I mean, they did sell a lot of remasters, but they also had Killzone Shadow Fall and they had a lot of promotion focused on Driveclub and both were clearly above the PS3's capabilities.

 

[evandro7047301]

Is it 100% confirmed that the Zelda OLED is real? I think it's a little weird that the green detail is on the left joy con. If I remember correctly Link's injured arm is the right one.

 

[Concernt]

Is it 100% confirmed that the Zelda OLED is real? I think it a little weird that the green detail is on the left joy con. If I remember correctly Link's injured arm is the right one.

Not confirmed at all! Who knows. I don't think it matters for Drake one way or another.

 

[Serif]

Is it 100% confirmed that the Zelda OLED is real? I think it's a little weird that the green detail is on the left joy con. If I remember correctly Link's injured arm is the right one.

The green detail is the sky island side pattern you can see on the key art.

 

[Zaimokuza]

I mean, they did sell a lot of remasters, but they also had Killzone Shadow Fall and they had a lot of promotion focused on Driveclub and both were clearly above the PS3's capabilities.

We'll surely get a couple of small, exclusive tech showcases. Maybe the next 3D Mario. It's just that Nintendo doesn't really have anything as prestigious as BotW (not even the Zelda franchise in its entirety, just BotW and therefore its direct sequel)

 

[arsen]

Is it 100% confirmed that the Zelda OLED is real? I think it's a little weird that the green detail is on the left joy con. If I remember correctly Link's injured arm is the right one.

It's also using the same exact same Triforce pattern used for a 3ds collector, this is either sus or Nintendo's designers were just lazy on that one.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yeah, I'm sorry, but thousands of people would need to be in the know at this point and one of them would have talked to Jason or the WSJ.

The idea that Nintendo is launching a system in 5 months that almost no one knows about seems extremely implausible from a marketing, manufacturing, promotion, third party relations, etc perspective.

All you did is provide what would be a moving goal post, not some sort of explicit answer. Because people continue saying “oh, surely, it will be this next time later, because it hasn’t shown up right now”, and then it ends up being that time later, and then people continue moving the goalposts saying “oh it surely will be this next time.”



I’m not even going to get onto the more technical side that no chip that is derived from the existing chip takes this long to actually be made, where it would take five years for them to create such a chip. That would require me believing that a chip that is primarily focused for a gaming console, and has features directed for gaming, NVidia was unable to deliver, and they suffered a significant delay. And even then, you’re not even gonna get that at 2024 if it takes them five years For a chip that is derived from an existing chip. Let that sink in, five whole years. Something must’ve gone so bad that they had to delay, and that will be by several quarters.

Nothing is supporting? I suppose that is a matter of opinion, but something I quite disagree with.

Comparable does not necessarily mean similar. Simply able to be compared! We've been comparing it for ages! Though again, I suppose a matter of opinion.

Oh well. I have no skin in this game, I mean, no money to be made or lost either way, but I remain firmly on the side of 2023 unless proven otherwise. They won't sit on their hands for 36 months, I don't think.

I feel like you’re not really reading what I’m saying. Or trying to understand what I’m saying here.

 

[Hermii]

We wouldn’t even know that T239 was actually related to Nintendo, unless it was acquired through illegal means.

Not entirely correct though. Kopite told us summer 2021.

 

[Concernt]

All you did is provide what would be a moving goal post, not some sort of explicit answer. Because people continue saying “oh, surely, it will be this next time later, because it hasn’t shown up right now”, and then it ends up being that time later, and then people continue moving the goalposts saying “oh it surely will be this next time.”



I’m not even going to get onto the more technical side that no chip that is derived from the existing chip takes this long to actually be made, where it would take five years for them to create such a chip. That would require me believing that a chip that is primarily focused for a gaming console, and has features directed for gaming, NVidia was unable to deliver, and they suffered a significant delay. And even then, you’re not even gonna get that at 2024 if it takes them five years For a chip that is derived from an existing chip. Let that sink in, five whole years. Something must’ve gone so bad that they had to delay, and that will be by several quarters.



I feel like you’re not really reading what I’m saying. Or trying to understand what I’m saying here.

Oh I am reading it, and quite understanding it, I simply disagree! One can both understand and disagree. And that's OK!

And nothing (factual) suggests a delay.

 

[Skittzo]

All you did is provide what would be a moving goal post, not some sort of explicit answer. Because people continue saying “oh, surely, it will be this next time later, because it hasn’t shown up right now”, and then it ends up being that time later, and then people continue moving the goalposts saying “oh it surely will be this next time.”



I’m not even going to get onto the more technical side that no chip that is derived from the existing chip takes this long to actually be made, where it would take five years for them to create such a chip. That would require me believing that a chip that is primarily focused for a gaming console, and has features directed for gaming, NVidia was unable to deliver, and they suffered a significant delay. And even then, you’re not even gonna get that at 2024 if it takes them five years For a chip that is derived from an existing chip. Let that sink in, five whole years. Something must’ve gone so bad that they had to delay, and that will be by several quarters.



I feel like you’re not really reading what I’m saying. Or trying to understand what I’m saying here.

I'm also having a little trouble understanding your point but I think what you're getting at is that there's no more reason to assume it'll be 2024 than there is for 2023 or 2025 or 2026?

Basically, we have no clue on timing.

 

[CypressFX]

@Polygon

I started to believe you in the last time, since you said this way before Nate told us that it wont be in 2022, neither lathe nor early 2022.

Plus you are right, if they are nervous, and they are, its the best to start this Gen with Zelda.

Because even for the Switch, it was the title that made the Switch so successful in the first place.

There was a lot of concern and critics for the Switch because of the lack of games beside Zelda.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

All you did is provide what would be a moving goal post, not some sort of explicit answer. Because people continue saying “oh, surely, it will be this next time later, because it hasn’t shown up right now”, and then it ends up being that time later, and then people continue moving the goalposts saying “oh it surely will be this next time.”



I’m not even going to get onto the more technical side that no chip that is derived from the existing chip takes this long to actually be made, where it would take five years for them to create such a chip. That would require me believing that a chip that is primarily focused for a gaming console, and has features directed for gaming, NVidia was unable to deliver, and they suffered a significant delay. And even then, you’re not even gonna get that at 2024 if it takes them five years For a chip that is derived from an existing chip. Let that sink in, five whole years. Something must’ve gone so bad that they had to delay, and that will be by several quarters.



I feel like you’re not really reading what I’m saying. Or trying to understand what I’m saying here.

What are you talking about, I'm not providing a moving goalpost at all. I think the speculation of it releasing five months from now is really silly compared to it releasing in 11 months, 14 months, 17 months, 23 months, 35 months, etc.

Incredibly secretive launches like this where it's five months from launch and we have no official info have not happened in the video game industry. If this somehow was happening, I would expect pretty aggressive leaking at this point due to how many different parties need to know about it.

The idea that this is releasing before November 2023 at the earliest is just based on people wanting to play TotK at 4K60 instead of anything that makes sense.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I'm also having a little trouble understanding your point but I think what you're getting at is that there's no more reason to assume it'll be 2024 than there is for 2023 or 2025 or 2026?

Basically, we have no clue on timing.

Basically what I’m saying is that if we’re gonna base the timing on the publicly leaked information or lack there of, we cannot assume 2023 and 2024 are on the table, we have to assume at that point that 2025/2026 are the windows, and you have to ask yourself if you actually really believe such a thing.

Someone mentioned something about developer kits being out 1.5 years prior to the launch of the new system, 1.5 Years after today would be the middle of 2024, but we haven’t seen anything at all. So does that mean that there are zero dev kits in hands yet? And for a 2024 EoY launch, it would be around February that we start hearing anything? Because otherwise it means as of now devs don’t really have anything

Someone also mentioned that a lot of people would be in the know about this, but Nintendo would brief these third-party developers with a window for which they’re targeting with their games. But we haven’t heard a single thing about any window even if far out? So how are people confident in 2024 when they have even heard a single peep from any developer? Some devs would be talking about something they have targeting X window at Y companies, and that would have leaked of some project in the works with platforms. Microsoft is infamous in this regard but not the norm, however third parties are a different case. Capcom suffered a random ware leak that had games planned even as far out as 2024, and no mention of an additional platform. Of course this can just mean that Capcom has zero interest in the Nintendo next platform for their games, but that doesn’t stop ports of previous titles like they’ve done with the current switch whenever feasible.



We don’t know anything as of current time from developers, 2024 is less than a year away after all.

 

[Charamiwa]

It's also using the same exact same Triforce pattern used for a 3ds collector, this is either sus or Nintendo's designers were just lazy on that one.

That Triforce pattern is in BotW already, it's just the one they use.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Basically what I’m saying is that if we’re gonna base the timing on the publicly leaked information or lack there of, we cannot assume 2023 and 2024 are on the table, we have to assume at that point that 2025/2026 are the windows, and you have to ask yourself if you actually really believe such a thing.

Someone mentioned something about developer kits being out 1.5 years prior to the launch of the new system, 1.5 Years after today would be the middle of 2024, but we haven’t seen anything at all. So does that mean that there are zero dev kits in hands yet? And for a 2024 EoY launch, it would be around February that we start hearing anything? Because otherwise it means as of now devs don’t really have anything

Someone also mentioned that a lot of people would be in the know about this, but Nintendo would brief these third-party developers with a window for which they’re targeting with their games. But we haven’t heard a single thing about any window even if far out? So how are people confident in 2024 when they have even heard a single peep from any developer? Some devs would be talking about something they have targeting X window at Y companies, and that would have leaked of some project in the works with platforms. Microsoft is infamous in this regard but not the norm, however third parties are a different case. Capcom suffered a random ware leak that had games planned even as far out as 2024, and no mention of an additional platform. Of course this can just mean that Capcom has zero interest in the Nintendo next platform for their games, but that doesn’t stop ports of previous titles like they’ve done with the current switch whenever feasible.



We don’t know anything as of current time from developers, 2024 is less than a year away after all.

Well, I mean, I'm like 99% confident this is not launching in 1H 2023 so we can just see in a couple months when there is no Switch successor released.

Launches like you are imagining just don't really happen at all.

Yes, it seems reasonable that Nintendo could keep the Switch 2 a secret 23 months from release and not 5 months from release, a lot more is involved with the later.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

What are you talking about, I'm not providing a moving goalpost at all. I think the speculation of it releasing five months from now is really silly compared to it releasing in 11 months, 14 months, 17 months, 23 months, 35 months, etc.

I replied lol for a reason because November 2024 is not different from May 2023, and it’s just another day, it is a different goal post that people will latch onto. That’s not gonna get kept secret, that’s just a different point in time in which the secret comes out, it’s the exact same thing.

Not entirely correct though. Kopite told us summer 2021.

Fair enough.

 

[Vash]

No, we don't have substantial information about that happening.

We really are relying on 2 no-name posters and a report that Nintendo and rumour dev (Zynga) have publically declined.

Tbf what would you want Zynga to say? " Yes we have the device that was reported."? That's a good way to make sure you never get anything from Nintendo in the future

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Well, I mean, I'm like 99% confident this is not launching in 1H 2023 so we can just see in a couple months when there is no Switch successor released.

Launches like you are imagining just don't really happen at all.

But like I said, I have no horse in the race for the first half of 2023, I don’t believe that at all at this point. I’m just pointing out that there’s an admittance to something without realization of what that is.

It’s almost like I said I don’t believe a H1 2023. I’m just pointing out that there’s a disconnect is all.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I replied lol for a reason because November 2024 is not different from May 2023, and it’s just another day, it is a different goal post that people will latch onto. That’s not gonna get kept secret, that’s just a different point in time in which the secret comes out, it’s the exact same thing.


Fair enough.

..... I'm very confused what you are trying to argue. It's pretty obvious based on... the history of video games... that it's a lot easier to keep a secret the further away from release something is. Detailed launch plans or leaks two years in advance is actually a little rare IIRC? I don't remember there being any communication or serious leaks on the Switch in March 2015 or the 3DS March 2009 or the WiiU November 2010.

 

[niconiconick64]

Switch 2 in 2023 or not, my body is ready for an SMT IV remaster and P4D port on the switch.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

..... I'm very confused what you are trying to argue. It's pretty obvious based on... the history of video games... that it's a lot easier to keep a secret the further away from release something is. Detailed launch plans or leaks two years in advance is actually a little rare IIRC?

i’m saying that five months out from that day (May) is not different from five months out from let’s say November 2024. If we haven’t heard anything, it’s just a different goal post that will be latched to.


Also, I brought up Capcom for a reason, either they have no plans to bring any ports to the new system, they have no plans to include the next Nintendo system into the development pipeline, or the next Nintendo system isn’t coming out until after 2024. Granted nothing was old by now, but in 2020 when it leaked illegally it made no mention of other platforms besides the PlayStation and the Xbox.


But to which I ask people, do you really believe Nintendo is going to release a whole new system 8 to 9 years after the original system with a TX1 and their development pipelines? At some point something has to give and you have to see it from a different perspective or you’ll always be lead to believe they aren’t launching anything, like ever lol.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

i’m saying that five months out from that day (May) is not different from five months out from let’s say November 2024. If we haven’t heard anything, it’s just a different goal post that will be latched to.

I mean yes, if we have not heard of the Switch 2 five months before November 2024, it will not release in 2024, I agree. Nintendo will start detailing their next gen plans probably 8 or so months before the release and we'll have major leaks from Jason etc around that time if not.

 

[eye0h]

Drake is still planned for Q2 ‘23 as of December’22. Zelda 2 launch obviously.

And the cycle continues. Gonna call highkey bs on this one (for my sanity)

 

[Skittzo]

I guess I just don't see us going too far past the start of 2024 without Drake being used in a product. I feel like the hard, objective evidence at least says that much.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Also, I don’t believe that special additions have a significant bearing on what year a new system releases? The people that predominantly buy these systems are the hard-core people that literally buy multiple versions of the same product. And these special editions are to better help get people to buy these even if multiple.


I suspect that they want more people to buy it to get more of the pipeline running to source the parts easier for a newer system and introduce a price drop.

The more you make the more you can save in volume if I’m not mistaken if the order is large enough to allow for it.


Release H1 2023? Sure I don’t see that, but H2 isn’t necessarily off the table because of that. Like I don’t think it means a significant difference in timing where it’s pushed out by a whole year, but a smaller one.

Hence 5-7months after the ZOLEDA one. (I’m assuming March release for this?)

DSi XL special edition bundle for the Mario 25th Anniversary came out a few months before the 3DS came out(February 2011), and the 3DS was already announced.

Mario celebrates 25 years with Wii, DSi bundles

Nintendo plans to release a Red Wii bundle a Red Nintendo DSi XL bundle on November 7. Also coming: a Wii Remote Plus for better control of on-screen action.

www.cnet.com

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The scope of an entire new console and everything that requires is way too much. We'll start hearing about a new console 9 months before release or so.

8 months before Switch we didn't know anything more than a code name, and the only things we were hearing from outside developers or publishers were things like the Dragon Quest XI NX announcement they tried to walk back. It wasn't really until two months before launch we started hearing solid things about software, even the NBA2K and Skyrim used in the reveal video weren't very openly discussed.

Im not saying Mochizuki is making things up just saying the info they have gotten was either misrepresented or misunderstood. Takashi Mochizuki is a great reporter but I genuinely believe that he heard OLED surrounding 4K Dock was probably just for testing, also DF noted back in 2021 that OLED model was determined without any performance upgrade in a switch FW update.

Right or wrong, it seems like it would be pretty hard to hear something about OLED dock tests and turn it into "Several outside game developers, speaking anonymously as the issue is private, said that Nintendo has asked them to make their games 4K-ready".

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

The idea of TotK being some ideal launch title is pretty silly to me.

Twilight Princess and BotW were crossgen launch titles that were extremely popular, but the context is incredibly different. Twilight Princess and BotW launched on old systems that were very unpopular and new systems that were pretty similar in power to the old systems. People really HAD to get a Wii or Switch to get Zelda because they probably didn't have a GameCube or WiiU. That is not the case if TotK is a cross-gen launch title.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo has a PS4 caliber system, they probably want to launch the Switch 2 with a game that shows off its capabilities. TotK looks fine, but it definitely looks like a Switch game. They probably would want a game that looks nearly as good as say Horizon Zero Dawn or Death Stranding to show that this is a whole leap. The WiiU launching with the very graphically unimpressive NSMBU probably hurt the system a good bit compared to if it launched with 3D World or Mario Kart 8. A 4K60 TotK would obviously be appealing, but it wouldn't really be the launch showpiece that you need to show how powerful your system is.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

8 months before Switch we didn't know anything more than a code name, and the only things we were hearing from outside developers or publishers were things like the Dragon Quest XI NX announcement they tried to walk back. It wasn't really until two months before launch we started hearing solid things about software, even the NBA2K and Skyrim used in the reveal video weren't very openly discussed.

Right or wrong, it seems like it would be pretty hard to hear something about OLED dock tests and turn it into "Several outside game developers, speaking anonymously as the issue is private, said that Nintendo has asked them to make their games 4K-ready".

The Switch was officially revealed 5 months before release and we knew that BotW was a launch game 9 months before release and we knew it was a FY 2017 release 10.5 months before release.

 

[Kise Ryota]

But if Drake 2 could reach that bandwidth, that would really make it future proof. Doubt it will, but i guess that makes handheld devices

Yeah, I didn't see that bandwidth. It's insane.

Talking about BW, if Drake is for 2024, we should expect more BW than 102GB/s. What do you think?

 

[Dekuman]

Not specifically told TotK but Q2 is Zelda launch so it lines up with Q2.

I do wonder what game people think is huge enough to launch a next generation Switch if it’s not TotK?

TotK is May, the new 3d Mario is almost certainly October this year. I guess Mario Kart 9 in March 2024 then? because by that time we will have just had a new Zelda, Mario, Fire Emblem and Pikmin the year prior. Luigi’s Mansion is an October franchise and probably not due until Oct ‘26 due to Covid hampering it’s first two years of production. Bayonetta 4 (if 3’s sales even justified it) is 4 years off. We’ve just had a Xenoblade game. We’ve just had a new Splatoon. Metroid is not a big enough franchise to even exist for years to Nintendo nevermind to launch a next generation console with Prime 4.

A new Warriors spin off game is not big enough neither is a new Yoshi / Kirby / DK platformer or any Mario Sports spin off title.

Pokemon has never traditionally been used to sell Nintendo hardware in terms of a home / hybrid device either. God knows what is happening with Smash whether they will even make another anytime soon with their director seemingly retiring and if they do will they think more DLC passes will be the way to go (like the MK8D DLC) because really what can they do with Smash at this point that hasn’t already been done in past titles or that’s in Ultimate.

So the only option left seems to be Mario Kart 9/10 (do we count the mobile game as a main line entry?). Yes the team has been quiet but they have also done / helped with Tour, the physical toy car game and been making all the DLC tracks. Is next Spring enough time to make a new impressive entry in series and do Nintendo even think Mario Kart is strong enough to launch a next generation system on its own without a 2017 like spate of big titles to come thundering in one after the other after the other. Mario Kart seems to be a more of a complimentary purchase for Nintendo consoles rather than the main reason to buy the console imo.

Their other option is this May. When they have perhaps their biggest, most ambitious, most expensive, most anticipated game ever created launching. It’s also a franchise that successfully launched Wii, new 3DS, Switch and Switch Lite. They also have a new Pikmin, 3D Mario and perhaps Prime 4 to follow it up and keep momentum into ‘24 when a possible new Mario Kart would arrive to keep interest in the new console up.

You really don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes or have contacts in the industry to work this out. All that has changed is it’s almost certainly going to be positioned as their “next generation” system instead of a Switch “Pro/4k”

If I hear that plans have changed once my mates go back to work I’ll let y’all know but it doesn’t seem like anything has changed the kits simply got stronger and stronger with more memory throughout ‘22.

Well, let me ask you something. How can you be so sure your friend is telling the truth and or isn't confusing things. You've mentioned before he works for a publisher, are you certain it's a Nintendo product and they specifically told you it's next-gen Switch game? I could see a lot of misunderstanding happening if you are speaking in generalities and making assumptions based on their answers. A lot of leakers seem to be like that. Never getting clear answers and just assuming things based on cryptic answers.

As for MK9, I'm not very confident we'll get one in 2024. Nintendo may go with doing a 4K 60FPS remaster of MK8 at the start of the generation and allow people who have the game on Switch to upgrade.

 

[Discostew]

It's not like Nintendo hasn't been tight-lipped about various releases before. Take Origami King, for instance. Maybe people probably felt it was time for a new Paper Mario game, but nothing about one ever came about until Nintendo made the official announcement with a release date a mere 2 months out.

I'm still under the impression that the "Switch 2" is coming out this year. Maybe not H1, but still possible. Besides the production information and whatnot, Nintendo's biggest game to date, TotK, has yet to have anything more than teaser trailers (with the last one from mid September), and that game is expected to come out in less than 5 months. Why wouldn't they show a major trailer for it by now? My feeling is that they have one prepared, but didn't want to show it yet because it may not have been compiled from Switch footage, but from the successor.

Wouldn't they want to show that by now to get people interested in the new device? Sure, if it wasn't for the fact that it was the holiday season where they'd want to sell what is currently available. By showing off the successor, that would garner interest in that, but at the same time people would forgo buying a Switch when they could wait a number of months for the better device. If the successor does indeed have Switch backwards compatibility, then why would anyone want to buy a Switch at that point?

Enter the ZOLED. If you can't sell a normal device, sell a limited edition one that has the same guts as the normal device, but with a different coat of paint. I'd imagine the ZOLED isn't going to be the last LE Switch we'll see. The n/3DS was still able to sell somewhat when Switch released because Switch lacked 3DS backwards compatibility. Switch doesn't have that luxury, assuming the successor does indeed have Switch BC.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The Origami King and other software are just a massively different thing than the launch of a completely new console, there's just so many more moving parts and actors outside of Nintendo that must have information.

 

[ArchedThunder]

I took liberties of making a post that can be referred when people want to compare specs to other platforms and hypotheticals:

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Am I correct in assuming the pixel and texture rates for Drake are less important than the other listed systems because of DLSS?

 

[Skittzo]

The Switch was officially revealed 5 months before release and we knew that BotW was a launch game 9 months before release and we knew it was a FY 2017 release 10.5 months before release.

To play devil's advocate (I agree that H1 seems pretty unlikely now) they were in a much different position then, where publicly acknowledging a new console wouldn't hurt their current business since it was pretty stagnant anyway.

 

[TurtleRock]

8 months before Switch we didn't know anything more than a code name, and the only things we were hearing from outside developers or publishers were things like the Dragon Quest XI NX announcement they tried to walk back. It wasn't really until two months before launch we started hearing solid things about software, even the NBA2K and Skyrim used in the reveal video weren't very openly discussed.

This is completely incorrect. We had a solid understanding of what the Switch actually was, from its hybrid nature to the detachable Joycons. Here is a July 30, 2016 report from Eurogamer that pretty much tells us what the Switch is. Approximately 8 months before launch. That article in hindsight absolutely nailed what the Switch is, including those mock up pictures.

Nintendo NX is a portable console with detachable controllers

Nintendo's upcoming NX will be a portable, handheld console with detachable controllers, a number of sources have confi…

www.eurogamer.net

And the Eurogamer article came out after people like Emily had leaked this information about the Switch.

We knew waaaaay more about NX 8 months before launch than this Drake console. We are hypothetically 6 months before launch with TotK and there’s no peep of the this new consoles form factor, controllers, screen size, etc. We are much more in the dark at this point in time about Drake.

This is why I don’t think a new console is launching with Zelda but I’m happy to be wrong.