Solid theory, but imo not backed up by solid evidence, and disputet by the fact that Nate said explicitly the 2023 hardware is now shelved. I still feel we are missing huge parts of the puzzle,The obvious answer is that T239 is both chips. It likely was 8nm (with power draw problems) around the time Brainchild talked about the chip having power issues... That was Spring last year (so before that, we are talking a midgen refresh probably being canceled at the end of 2020. Then the T239 chip shrunk, giving us the DLSS test results sometime after June 2021 that LiC posted in here last week. We know engineering samples were in the wild in April 2022, that gives them plenty of time to cancel production on 8nm, redesign it for 5nm and have it launch in 1H 2023. Remember Zelda was delayed at the end of March 2022 (around the time engineering samples for T239 exist) to May 2023, that is probably because Drake was finally free of power issues. We know as of August 2022, that T239 is ready for full production, and thus all components for a next generation Switch is ready for production, lining up nicely for a 1H launch of Switch "2".
This is just the possible timeline of what happened, I think this makes perfect sense thanks to the OLED model, which Nintendo was already on the hook for these components. So if DF is correct about a midgen refresh in the past being canceled, I think it's clear why Switch "Pro" has hung around every year in the rumor mill.
October 2016, before the official reveal, that foxconn leak about the higher clocks and also a chip twice as big as TX1, and being confirmed by the content of the post like shape of the heat sink and it's size, the weight of the device, joycons, the naming of SL and SR buttons on the side of the joycons that slide into the rail system, literally a dozen other pieces of information that all checked out, and some reporting about Nintendo possibly moving to Pascal over Maxwell... Led to Switch pro rumors in 2016 before Switch even released.
In 2019, Nintendo overclocked Mariko to 1267MHz on the GPU, a higher CPU clock and LPDDR4X ram, giving about a 2/3rds performance jump, but ultimately retained Switch clocks, likely because of Switch's success and simplifying development. These clocks still exist in firmware.
in 2020 we get reports about Nintendo asking developers to prepare 4K versions of Switch games.
in 2021, we get brainchild's info, and news about a more powerful switch, also Switch OLED model launches with all new hardware, tons of changes, except to the main SoC. Why? I mean some of these components are just more expensive for no reason.
Nvidia hack on March 1st 2022 confirms T239, NVN2. End of March 2022, Zelda is delayed to May 2023, outside of the holiday season. April 2022 engineer samples for T239 exist. August 2022, T239 goes into production. November 2022 Zelda has gone gold, yet we aren't playing it.
That isn't even the entire history here, but everything is ready for a Switch "2" to be produced and released in the first half of next year, Zelda could have been shipped this year IMO, delaying it for what reason is hard to tell, it's not like Nintendo doesn't have other games close for release that could fill the first half of next year.
Finally, just a side note, some people think there is no time to reveal new hardware before Zelda, but Switch, which was an entirely new concept only had 4 and a half months between the October 20th 2016 reveal video and March 3rd 2017 launch. The Switch presentation was Jan 13th 2017, less than 2 months before the device went on sale. We are 5 and a half months before release of Zelda. There is time to reveal a Switch "2" to launch alongside of it.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Solid theory, but imo not backed up by solid evidence, and disputet by the fact that Nate said explicitly the 2023 hardware is now shelved. I still feel we are missing huge parts of the puzzle,
Aether
Tingle
Cause hes only reiterating and aligning stuff we knew or discussed for years to form a a theory?
Hes not saying its that was or providing ned. Hes just interpreting stuff. What links does he need to provide? To the OPs of all speculation threads we had?
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I still find the Series S moment with DF to be funny. They spoke about it, gave an example of it, had one for months, and yet they didn’t outright say they had it.
They even showed something without actually showing anything.
Does anyone remember the videos I’m talking about?
They even showed something without actually showing anything.
Does anyone remember the videos I’m talking about?
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
That's. Not true?
Kneecapped third party support hurts sales.
And first party games still had the 1.5GB limitation, which didn't help the developers.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I genuinely think Nate's info on that is simply confused. Maybe a contact or two of his has told him that there's no more revision, just a successor now. But that might be just a change in how the same product is being communicated to that studio from Nintendo.
DF really did seem to be referring to the cancelled Mariko pro, not anything recent. Nate however likely saw the mention now of them talking about something being cancelled and made the connection in his head to the information he has heard about a revision no longer being on the table.
That's really the only way my mind can resolve the info we have right now.
Kenka
Like Like
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He mentioned inputs from other users without linking to their posts, barring us from the possibility to double-check his conclusions.
Aether
Tingle
K.
Yeah i remember those posts and pages of discussions so i take him by his words, and i get why he did not do that (hunting all of that down would take time and is tedious), but i also get why youre more critical there.
Most of it can still be found on threadmarks here, on resetera (and probably partly even on gaf...)
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Here is the thing, the information exists in this thread, so if you want links, check the bottom of the page and read through it all, if you want quick updates about what is going on, look for posts like mine, there is nothing in my posts that would have links that aren't actually already discussed in this very thread. If you don't like the post, or theory, don't read it, but I'm not going to spend a half hour tracking down links to information that has been discussed for years...
I don't agree with Nate's information, the timeline doesn't fit. I've already explained why, and at this point 2023 will be disproved in 2 months or less, I'm not too worried about waiting a couple months to close out 2023. The midgen refresh was a 2021 product, and we can infer that because Nate and others started talking about this rumor in Spring 2022. No insider bats 1000, and a midgen refresh wouldn't be canceled in 2021 for a 2023 release.
Kenka
Like Like
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With all due respect, that is not the right approach. We have had users like Dakhil (our very OP) that never mentioned a single information without diligently mentioning their source and we have Thraktor, whose input are also always well documented and relevant.
I don't want to you to think that I am attacking you (I am not), but I believe that one way to avoid drama is by always referring to whatever information came before. That way, traceability is ensured and everyone has the possibility to go back to the root of an argument.
As a nice bonus, hot takes don't gain traction that way either.
pelusilla6
Moblin
Good points on your last posts but I still dont get the DF's sudden change regarding the new switch from the summer podcast to this latest one plus the trigger it has made to Nate to support this new information he has been holding back for weeks.
It has to be something fresh, its very odd.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
I think perceived drama like that should be saved for the people who care about such things. I don't have time to track down all these links, that are discussed in this thread multiple times. so what is my options? Posts where people who follow the thread regularly over years, can read my posts without these links, or me just never making these posts in the first place?
I thought about this yesterday, and really it's not on me to find all those links, there is something like 100k posts between Famiboards and Era on Switch "pro" "2" talk, in just the tech threads. I think people are just going to have to stay lost with my posts, it's ok if people want to just take me at my word or ignore me because they can't.
I'm often being told that I pretend to be an insider, and no offense to you, I don't mean you, but I think it's just lazy people that want links like Dakhil does, rather than following the thread themselves. That is fine, it's a huge thread going back years, if someone is reading it weekly on their coffee break for 5 minutes, they obviously won't have that deeper knowledge that people who have all day to talk in here have, but it's not on people like me to link you evidence, it really can't be, if you want that, read a website. Good ones will have sources, Dakhil is amazing, and is why I asked him to create the original thread, because he can do that, he is hard wired for it and I don't believe he has small children keeping him busy all day. I don't mean this to come off like I don't care, but I don't have time to dig through years of posts to find information. I did give a general timeframe for brainchild's post, there is a search function, if you are worried about it, look it up, but I'm sure he doesn't even want people quoting it now, these are things that are under some NDA, not his, but a friend of his.
Kenka
Like Like
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Fine. I told you what I thought was the right thing. You are free to operate after whichever mode you deem fit.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
John is working with information we don't have. I don't know what that information is, but Rich seems to be ok with believing a next gen Switch could release alongside Zelda and Rich has more/better sources than John, really I imagine they both know a lot of the same information, so John might see it that way, but Rich doesn't. I can only work with the information I know, and that is what everyone else here knows. One thing we know for sure, Drake is ready to be put into a new Switch model, the chip is physically in production as much as the past 5 months, if they want to launch Drake powered Switch hardware alongside Zelda, there is no reasoning we have, that could say that they can't.
I'm just a poster like you, just trying to add to the discussion, sorry if I'm suppose to be a professional, I'm not.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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That's not what Nate said.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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That aligns with what I've seen. Mid-gen refresh is gone. Sequel isn't.
All we can glean, if anything, from the information in recent days is the thing probably won't be positioned as a mid-gen refresh.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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- He/Him
wish I had your faith...
"the mid gen refresh planned for 2023" is gone, but the next gen system planned for 2023 is still on track for release. You seriously believe both of those things are true?
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Well New 2DS XL was a refresh, came out 4 months after Switch. However Switch's midgen refresh was canned twice IMO, Mariko and OLED model, both in 2019 and 2021... Nate heard about it having 4K and DLSS, this was information known from summer 2020 to everyone, because bloomberg wrote an article about it, 6 to 9 months later, we heard about T239 having power consumption problems, I'm still not going to find a link for it, this lines up exactly with the midgen refresh rumor, and that information would be very early 2021 at best. So yeah, this is not a 2023 device, meanwhile Drake is fine and is ready for production, is there another reason it can't be released in 2023? we don't know, but the current Drake T239 isn't canceled, it's been ready for production for the past 5 months.
Oh, also it's important to note that we know Drake is the only chip Nintendo has been planning for years now, as NVN2 only lists T239, and the files there go back to 2019. It's simple Drake was once bad, now it's good. We know it's good because of Linux updates, the DLSS test LiC posted and because it's in production, it would have never left engineering samples if it had a power consumption problem. Case closed IMO.
I am not half as confident as you on any of this. I still believe there is a lot of context missing here even in the NVN leak, which leads to plenty of oppurtonities to misinterpret information. Like you said, well find out if you hypothesis is correct soon enough. Im personally not holding my breath for Drake release in 2023.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
We know it is manufactured, so 100%? It is possible, that is why I said to wait for CES. If we don't hear anything out of CES for T239, then who else is making millions of something that will be powered by Drake in the first half of next year?
We don't have any conflicting information for 2023, just opinions it seems, and maybe some insider knowledge that Rich and John disagree on the possibility for 2023, but from what we have to go on, it's ready. That's all we really know, the chip is complete, it could be produced and placed inside Switch "2" devices since August. That is what we know.
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We know it physically exists, in a very likely final form. That doesn't necessarily mean it's been or being manufactured at a production level, as far as I know.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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based on the pcie lane testing?
theguy
Paratroopa
the mid-gen refresh probably got cancelled when the steam deck was announced, why put out something mediocre at best when the steam deck can do all of that and more? is it possible that it adjusted nintendo and nvidia’s stance? making them think nah we need something with actual power to compete. maybe the steam deck was the kick up the backside nintendo needed
About your 2ds xl example; why would Nate even bother telling us that some kind of tx1 revision none of us know anything about and that Nate hasnt reported anything about is now canceled?
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I think the idea is that Nate's info is incomplete and he might be getting wires crossed.
OP
OP
Seems TSMC's N3E process node's going to start high volume manufacturing (HVM) around the same time as Samsung's 3GAP process node (in 2024).
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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- He/him
Nate said in a later post himself, that he wants to clear the question in a podcast if there will be something 2023 or not.
It seems to me as this is thing many are talking about:
John from DF says there was a Refresh but got canned. It cant be the one for 2023, that would be too close.
He could mean anything by it
We have to wait. It is very likely that Nate got told that the Mid gen is no more but instead it will be labeled as a successor and will be a Next Gen system.
It seems to me as this is thing many are talking about:
John from DF says there was a Refresh but got canned. It cant be the one for 2023, that would be too close.
He could mean anything by it
We have to wait. It is very likely that Nate got told that the Mid gen is no more but instead it will be labeled as a successor and will be a Next Gen system.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Rich did say that is what it means, I already mentioned why shelfing production of a chip, only to restart production again at a later time, during a chip shortage is a bad idea. It's more likely than not, been in production for 5 months, but here is the other option so that everyone is clear.
Engineer samples were produced in April, for the following 4 months they worked to finalize the design and release final silicon, this requires a team working at Samsung/TSMC on a fab process, were they get paid by the wafer or working chip, then have to stop production on this line that they worked so hard on, use that line for another chip, because no one is paying to have the machines sit there and do nothing right? and then they do get those machines back during a chip shortage, to restart production they already had begun months earlier... The ramp up to production will exist alongside the completion of silicon because people need to get paid. Is this not how it normally works, I believe you have a much better grasp of this than I do? Where am I missing something?
Rich from DF based it on the Linux information, he came to the conclusion that it was in production back in a September podcast.
Don't get it twisted, I never said they were producing a new TX1 model, I am just saying Nintendo has released 2 new models in the same year.
We aren't talking about a new Switch production, we are talking about a SoC chip, that we know has been in production since the Linux information.
Multiverse
Moblin
The st**md**k doesn’t have that kind of power be serious. The sales are lower than most VR devices. That’s where its place is. Enthusiast device with zero wide appeal. Vita sold 15 times more and that did nothing.
The most logical explanation for the cancelation (if it’s actually true) is COVID and the logistic issues relating to it.
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- He/Him
No? We don't usually get leaks when a chip is in production, especially if it's not exactly a cutting edge chip.
When the console itself is in production that's a different story but the chip itself likely won't get any leaks.
theguy
Paratroopa
i don’t disagree, i was just basing my assumption off of the price point for the entry level device. which is what nintendo would most likely have been selling their refresh for and with lower specs. the media would’ve done nothing but compare the two devices.
also i didn’t know that it was a bad word here
Man, I wish I made this bet with more people, I’d have so many famicoins!
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't think the actual team gets paid by the wafer. Also production lines can have overlap between different products I believe, that's what process nodes generally are. You don't have machines fully dedicated to making layer 32 on T239, you use a general use 8nm CVD reactor to create layers 32, 46, 89 on T239 and T234 and others. Just as an example of how it works, pulling details out of my bottom.
The chip being finalized and physical does indicate (not confirm IMO) that it's being regularly produced, but the actual production level is absolutely unknown. They could be producing enough to send out devkits, or ramping up mass production.
However the idea that they'd finalize a chip and then not really make a retail product with it for 18+ months is a bit insane, I agree. All of which is to say the evidence we have does suggest it's being produced regularly, but I don't think it's safe to say that's confirmed.
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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- He/him
I stand corrected. I interpreted Drake as the actual console and not just the SoC.
D
Deleted member 1324
Guest
Hyrule Warriors 2 is my guess.
After thinking about it. I can’t actually believe how people are reacting to a throw away comment by a guy who makes retro videos on DF (who by the way has absolutely zero history of insider information especially around hardware… just like me). We all pretty much knew the original plan for a Switch Pro was probably superseded by a newer Nvidia chip equipped console as time went on.
I asked about this last night and a new upgraded, more powerful Switch was 100% in the works circa 2019/2020 but the main reason it was scrapped / put on hold in the short term (a reason anyone with a brain can also work out) was because of a combination of the Covid pandemic and the huge chip shortages and the resulting worldwide shipping and supply constraints that followed which are still being felt today and one of the reasons we didn’t get Drake this Holiday season.
And to the smarmy prick who posted the “by magic” gif when I talked about going from a 2x overall bump in specs (which DF John referenced) to a 10x CPU / 6x GPU bump in specs (which was a random number for an example the GPU is also closer to 10x) during the shift from Pro to Drake, it’s because of the architectural gains the newer Nvidia chip has and the smaller node as the product moved from a late 2020 release to a planned late 2022 release and was then finally delayed until Q2 2023 to launch with Zelda 2.
Have people forgotten about the leaked Nvidia specs?
Have people forgotten about the Bloomberg article where 10 developers went on record that they had devkits for a new Nintendo console?
Have people forgotten all of Nate’s hard work, risks and insider info (the first to break the news that DLSS was being utilised inside the new console).
Have people forgotten the info that I have provided. Info from perhaps the largest studio in the entire industry I might add (like I always said feel free to ignore me as I have zero track record… just like DF John).
Nah I think you’re all just ungrateful for the risks people take to inform and help what was at one time a great community. Like Nate I’m off.
Please could a mod nuke my account later today if you want to leave this final post up for the few regular people that actually appreciate time, effort and risk. If not delete my account now please.
You’ll all have Drake next May. Have a good one.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Thank you, yeah I'm not trying to make it a stone hard fact, just that the chances are small that something doesn't show up at CES and no product that is using T239 is released in 2023. To have a chip finished in summer 2022 and not use it until 2024, why? There is no explanation to such a decision, especially when this is all happening during a chip shortage right?
Dekuman
Kremling
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- He/Him/His
The last few pages was.quite a shitshow and I couldn't read all of it. Did Nate confirm the news he was trying to confirm was related to what DF reported about the mid gen refresh being canned.
If so, how does this relate to the Drake device we've been hearing about?
If so, how does this relate to the Drake device we've been hearing about?
YolkFolk
Tingle
Dude, calm down. Don’t delete your account. You’re a good poster. Most people are more querying the release timing than the existence of the hardware (which obviously exists). There will always be a few that think people with info are ‘lying’.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
With drake not being canned? It's not relevant, sorry the thread wasted 20+ pages to complete nonsense.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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if you go to site > open a new ticket you're more likely to get help
Dekuman
Kremling
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- He/Him/His
That is what I'm trying to figure out. Did Nate confirm if Drake is the same device DF reported as being canceled?
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
problem is people want forums to be like websites with paid journalists, posting sources and covering everything they say with a nice bow. and people are getting exceedingly more entitled to insider information, it's a racket. Like who owes me their job security?
No, he said that it wasn't Drake afaik.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
One has to have hope.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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iirc he indicated he has no idea. that sort of top-down perspective is unrealistic to expect
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
Yes. That makes sense. Whatever this thing WAS appears to be gone (though we don't have anything concrete on this). However, I could well believe it's been repositioned as a successor. Which makes sense given what we've seen of the processor.
The thought that Nintendo gives a single fuck about the steam deck is so funny to me.
Imagine: an overseas company whose net worth is over 5 times higher, with their current hardware at 118+mi units sold, reaching the 3rd place in the 'best selling consoles of all time' in like a week or so. That same company, being worried about their competitor's option that by contrast to the switch is only available in a select few countries, isn't available in retail, doesn't come bundled with a dock, has poor to mediocre battery runtime on intensive 3d titles, relies on a convoluted solution for the less tech-savvy (a good chunk of nintendo gamers) to run switch titles - which is pointless anyways because you'd still get worse battery life, has a considerably worse display, no option to share controllers with a friend (L and R joycons), no tabletop mode, costs anywhere from 50 to 200$ more...
Should I even bother going on?
If the people who are still deluded about the new switch versus the steam deck even read this thread a couple pages ago, they'd know that drake, even at lower clock speeds still beats the steam deck. That's solely because the deck isn't something you'll run at it's max TDP in handheld mode if you want to actually play the thing for over an hour or so. And by utilizing the numbers we already have on drake, it's clear that the device in docked mode beats the deck as well, DLSS not even being considered.
Right now, the steam deck has a confirmed amount of over a million sales, but analytics websites using data from the steam store's page ID for the device mention about more than twice that number however, even considering the limited availability, were drake a failure it would still sell many times more across both device's lifetime. Solely because the availability and demand for a new switch is way higher.
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