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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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bmfrosty said:
I have failed to keep up, but just on the basis of the new Zelda game and Mario movie, I believe we'll see a much more computationally capable Switch system and new Mario game in 2023.
Click to expand...
yeah next year is too important to Nintendo and they are already feeling the end of the Switch's potency
 
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some insiders (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
 
Procheno said:
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some people (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
As far as I understand Nvidia's naming conventions they don't use the same code name to describe multiple chips. Maybe minor changes can be made and have it be the same chip but if it's something as major as twice the SMs or something then it would get another code name.

I could see that theory working with "Dane" but personally I don't think that's what is going on.
 
0
Pokemaniac said:
There's enough wiggle room in the Nvidia info we've gotten for there to be an earlier version of the chip, but for it to have only been scrapped recently strains credulity.
Click to expand...

Did someone say it was scrapped recently? I watched the DF clip and I don't remember them saying that. I think it's more likely that it was scrapped a couple years ago or so but info on that didn't get out until just now.
 
Procheno said:
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some people (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
it's more believable to think that Mariko and the OLED was intended to be the pro, but was scrapped and just kept as a regular switch. given that Drake started in 2019, around the time of Mariko's launch, all of this was already planned out. an upgraded Mariko was probably fielded to devs, alongside Drake, and was thought that they should skip the pro and go straight to drake. it would explain how some thirds knew about it.
 
Or Drake won't be used for Nintendo anymore and we will see the Switch 2 after a new SoC is made for them in 2027. Nintendo may be hoping to keep the Switch sales up with software just like with the GB and release a successor 10-11 years after it came out or maybe not.
 
GamerJM said:
Did someone say it was scrapped recently? I watched the DF clip and I don't remember them saying that. I think it's more likely that it was scrapped a couple years ago or so but info on that didn't get out until just now.
Click to expand...
That's what I got from the video too but Nate seems to be implying that this is something more recent.

Maybe they're talking about two different things?
 
Tegra X2 could have been possible for "New" Switch. It supports the higher clock speeds Mariko supports and has twice the memory bandwidth. Simpler 2D games could have been done in 4K. Perhaps Nintendo wanted to save the marketing of 4K for their true successor, but the fact that the OLED Dock supports 4K, it leads me to believe that they had intended to implement some sort of 4K functionality.
 
Goodtwin said:
Tegra X2 could have been possible for "New" Switch. It supports the higher clock speeds Mariko supports and has twice the memory bandwidth. Simpler 2D games could have been done in 4K. Perhaps Nintendo wanted to save the marketing of 4K for their true successor, but the fact that the OLED Dock supports 4K, it leads me to believe that they had intended to implement some sort of 4K functionality.
Click to expand...
Parker and Mariko are almost the same. in fact, Mariko would be more efficient because it's on a more advanced node, and thus would have clocked higher

TonyBaduy said:
Or Drake won't be used for Nintendo anymore and we will see the Switch 2 after a new SoC is made for them in 2027. Nintendo may be hoping to keep the Switch sales up with software just like with the GB and release a successor 10-11 years after it came out or maybe not.
Click to expand...
you need to invent a new pokemon moment for that to happen
 
I’m confused, why does the fact that a revision was canceled at some point make people think a next gen Switch won’t release in 2023? That doesn’t make any sense to me.
TonyBaduy said:
Or Drake won't be used for Nintendo anymore and we will see the Switch 2 after a new SoC is made for them in 2027. Nintendo may be hoping to keep the Switch sales up with software just like with the GB and release a successor 10-11 years after it came out or maybe not.
Click to expand...
Hardware sales are declining and the hardware is struggling on a technical level, they’re not going to wait that long, they need to release something while they still have momentum,
 
Procheno said:
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some insiders (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I was thinking along these lines as well. Also:

  • the dev kits sent out in 2020/21 were for the revision.
  • 3rd party developers ported these games thinking they were going to be marketed as “revision exclusive”
  • the decision was made to turn the revision into a proper Switch 2
  • any plans to show off the revision and the ported games were scrapped before June 2022
- hence the paltry “partner showcase” we got in June.
  • now said ported games are still done/being worked on, just waiting for what will now be the Switch 2 reveal
  • the only thing left in my mind that’s a big question mark is when the damn thing will be announced/released.
 
exzuk5j.png
 
My understanding:
  • An early version of Drake(maybe Dane with 8sm and 8nm) was planned, this was intended to release in late 2022 as an iterative revision in the same family with DLSS and RT
  • Devkits for this when out in 2020 and 2021, but sometime in late 2021/early 2022, Nintendo scrapped this early build and enhanced it to Drake we know today and sent out new devkits. Drake is now intended to be a standard successor to the Switch to be released somewhere from 2023. But it shares the same architecture as the early build so devs do not need to start all over.
  • This was surely due to a combination of factors such as strong Switch sales, Covid, etc
  • I always found it weird that there were so many games releasing in late 2022 and DLCs going over 2 years. Even considering BC I find it weird. But I think Nintendo was considering some iterative early version of Drake for late 2022 up until fall 2021 so these games and DLC where all already planned to release considering this iterative revision which would extend the Switch family life cycle.
  • Iirc Nate(given the benefit of doubt) said back the new incoming hardware is a revision. Maybe this might have been the plan until like a little more than a year ago but this was scrapped for the Drake we know as a standard successor. If the Nvidia leak happened in say 2020 I wonder what we would had discover.

Or maybe Drake was the early version to be released as successor in 2023 and now there is a new version of it to be released at an unknown date...but I have a gut feeling what happened is what I previously listed the above. Just look at the time in which DF talks about this new info, December 2022. This hardware(maybe the more powerful revision) could have just been 3 months old as we are speaking if it was supposed to release in late 2022. Is like devs just opened their gates to DF saying "Nintendo told us they will release new hardware in late 2022 but they scrapped it for next gen". I maybe reading between lines but the timing for this make it so obvious devs where timing some hardware(maybe touted as a revision by Nintendo at the time) that was supposed to release in 2022 but didn't. Now they are just waiting for Nintendo and the successor(Drake).
 
I think the biggest disservice we ever did to ourselves was trying to name the damn system. We would have been better off just saying it's a more capable, Switch backwards compatible Nintendo system.

Unfortunately that's a bit unwieldy.
 
ArchedThunder said:
I’m confused, why does the fact that a revision was canceled at some point make people think a next gen Switch won’t release in 2023? That doesn’t make any sense to me.
Click to expand...
Nate seemed to be implying (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that this cancelled revision was the product he had been referring to with a late 22/early 23 release date.
 
My understanding:
  • An early version of Drake(maybe Dane with 8sm and 8nm) was planned, this was intended to release in late 2022 as an iterative revision in the same family with DLSS and RT
  • Devkits for this when out in 2020 and 2021, but sometime in late 2021/early 2022, Nintendo scrapped this early build and enhanced it to Drake we know today and sent out new devkits. Drake is now intended to be a standard successor to the Switch to be released somewhere from 2023. But it shares the same architecture as the early build so devs do not need to start all over.
  • This was surely due to a combination of factors such as strong Switch sales, Covid, etc
  • I always found it weird that there were so many games releasing in late 2022 and DLCs going over 2 years. Even considering BC I find it weird. But I think Nintendo was considering some iterative early version of Drake for late 2022 up until fall 2021 so these games and DLC where all already planned to release considering this iterative revision which would extend the Switch family life cycle.
  • Iirc Nate(given the benefit of doubt) said back the new incoming hardware is a revision. Maybe this might have been the plan until like a little more than a year ago but this was scrapped for the Drake we know as a standard successor. If the Nvidia leak happened in say 2020 I wonder what we would had discover.

Or maybe Drake was the early version to be released as successor in 2023 and now there is a new version of it to be released at an unknown date...but I have a gut feeling what happened is what I previously listed above. Just look at the time at which DF talks about this new info, December 2022. This hardware(maybe the more powerful revision) could have just been 3 months old as we are speaking if it was supposed to release in late 2022. Is like devs just opened their gates to DF saying "Nintendo told us they will release new hardware in late 2022 but they scrapped it for next gen". I maybe reading between lines but the timing for this make it so obvious devs were timing some hardware(maybe touted as a revision by Nintendo at the time) that was supposed to release in 2022 but didn't. Now they are just waiting for Nintendo and the successor(Drake).
Procheno said:
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some insiders (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Exactly what I'm thinking
 
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0
Wow, what a time to pop into the thread.

Here are some things that you would not find in a "mid-gen refresh:"
  • RT cores, tensor cores, and DLSS
  • A several times more powerful GPU and CPU
  • A new architecture in the GPU preventing automatic backwards compatibility
Whatever was cancelled, if it was being called a mid-gen refresh, it didn't have the T239 "Drake" SoC in it.

I also believe that, on a spectrum between Mariko and Drake, whatever was cancelled must have been much, much closer to Mariko in terms of feature set. One big reason to think this: the more distinct and newly featured a devkit or SDK was, the more likely its cancellation would lead directly to leaks of SDK documents, devkit photos, etc. People are much more likely to leak after a project becomes public (like the original Switch having SDK documents leaked days after its October reveal) or worse, gets cancelled.

And lastly, as others have said already, I just find it completely implausible that Nintendo would cancel major new hardware having significant new features like DLSS and ray tracing, after the stage where they've already brought third parties on board with devkits and SDKs.

The one thing I am reconsidering is the release timing. Because the late 2020 devkit timing information was a big part of cementing 2023 as the extent of the release window for me, if that information is no longer correct/relevant, it may be that the development timeline of NVN2 and T239 alone is not enough to definitively answer that question. I still think 2023 is the most likely answer, but hopefully there will be more reporting from people who can get their story straight.
 
YugamiSekai said:
What does he know...

Click to expand...

I've been saying Dec 29-Jan 18 for a long while now...Mochizuki has dropped articles just before the New Year and then shortly after (usually following a 2 week holiday). I'm predicting he drops something before the end of the year or mid January.
 
Skittzo said:
Nate seemed to be implying (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that this cancelled revision was the product he had been referring to with a late 22/early 23 release date.
Click to expand...
Can somebody quote where he said that?
Because... If so... Then it's Drake that was cancelled 😰.
He said back then that he knew of a next gen Switch that would be capable of 4K through DLSS(which we can all agree is Drake/the specs of the Nvidia leak, right?).
So if that(the DLSS Switch Pro/2 of late 2022-early 2023) is what was canned... Then it would be indeed Drake and not some Mariko based or just "a little more powerful" stuff to come in 2020/2021 that was cancelled. And that would be a bummer.
Hope it's "cancelled" only in the sense of cancelled as a revision, so delayed to be a successor(even tho it would kinda be already eventually).
 
ArchedThunder said:
Hardware sales are declining and the hardware is struggling on a technical level, they’re not going to wait that long, they need to release something while they still have momentum,
Click to expand...
They wouldn't be able to launch a product they haven't even made and it takes years to make a new console's SoC. So IF Drake is not going to the Switch 2, we'd be seeing a 9-10 year gap between gens.
 
Serif said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Click to expand...
Wow, this actually could be why "Dane" is a banned search word in the document, just incase they didn't scrub it completely... Wonder when this was suppose to come, maybe there is some possibility that OLED Model was this T236, and could be the missing link to Nate and DF's info, which is seemingly older than the Nvidia hack, but I don't remember when Nate first talked about hearing about it.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Mario Kart could very well be ready sometime in early 2024 but yeah aside from that I don't know.
Click to expand...
Nah, too early. At least release wise. Not when the last dlc for mk8d is expected to come out in Q4 2023. I think we'll have to wait a full year at the earliest.

If it all goes as planned next year for 2023. I'm thinking:

January: FE engage
February: Kirby
May: Totk and Drake
Summer: Pikmin 4 with Drake support and Splatoon 3 dlc?
Fall: A Metroid game. MP remaster?
Nov/December: Mario game or another big seller?
Xb3 DLC story
A lot of 3rd party ports. Potentially a cod game, but this would be the earliest we get Cod from Activision
2024

MP4
Q4 Maybe Mario Kart 9
YolkFolk said:
I appreciate your posts and you’re excellent on the tech side but you also do have a history of being overly optimistic with these things.

You were sure this device was launching when the OLED came out. Then you were sure this was coming in 2022. You even stated an announcement was ‘imminent’ back in the summer.

It could be that your passion and enthusiasm is clouding what is really going on here. I’d love for you to be right of course, but it does seem like DF have no indications of any device coming next year despite their vast sources.
Click to expand...
Z0mbie is one of the most optimistic regulars here.. But at the same time, a lot of people really did think pro models would release in 2020, as well as Drake releasing in q4 2022, including me. And this is based on verified sources such as Bloomberg and NateDrake. Information changes. Incomplete information can also be misconstrued. Plans change internally as well. I don't think it's fair to pull a "20-20 hindsight gotcha" after they pass, on someone for speculating, especially when based on speculation from verified sources.

At this moment, we have no confirmation of when Drake/Switch Successor will release. It could release next year, or 2024. Nothing that Nathan or guys from DF deconfirming Drake not coming out next year. IMO, just confirms what many of us kind of believed from the start. It makes a lot of sense that Drake is a successor, and not treated like a pro console, because it's a console generational leap in power and tech.

But if there's anything we've learned... Nintendo likes to keep their NDAs tight, and we can't confirm 100% what and when they release, until they say so.

Goodtwin said:
Tegra X2 could have been possible for "New" Switch. It supports the higher clock speeds Mariko supports and has twice the memory bandwidth. Simpler 2D games could have been done in 4K. Perhaps Nintendo wanted to save the marketing of 4K for their true successor, but the fact that the OLED Dock supports 4K, it leads me to believe that they had intended to implement some sort of 4K functionality.
Click to expand...
Would have to be a heavily modified TX2. They can't use the denver cores. Would be identical to Mariko in clockspeeds (up to 50% faster GPU speeds, 70% faster CPU), except the 128 bit bus bandwidth with 2x as much RAM. I don't know about 4k support. Don't think Nintendo would care about it.
 
Last edited:
ShadowFox08 said:
Nah, too early. At least release wise. Not when the last dlc for mk8d is expected to come out in Q4 2023. I think we'll have to wait a full year at the earliest.

If it all goes as planned next year for 2023. I'm thinking:

January: FE engage
February: Kirby
May: Totk and Drake
Summer: Pikmin 4 with Drake support and Splatoon 3 dlc?
Fall: A Metroid game. MP remaster?
Nov/December: Mario game or another big seller?
Xb3 DLC story
A lot of 3rd party ports. Potentially a cod game, but this would be the earliest we get Cod from Activision
2024

MP4
Q4 Maybe Mario Kart 9

Z0mbie is one of the most optimistic regulars here.. But at the same time, a lot of people really did think pro models would release in 2020, as well as Drake releasing in q4 2022, including me. And this is based on verified sources such as Bloomberg and NateDrake. Information changes. Incomplete information can also be misconstrued. Plans change internally as well. I don't think it's fair to pull a "20-20 hindsight gotcha" after they pass, on someone for speculating, especially when based on speculation from verified sources.

At this moment, we have no confirmation of when Drake/Switch Successor will release. It could release next year, or 2024. Nothing that Nathan or guys from DF deconfirming Drake not coming out next year. IMO, just confirms what many of us kind of believed from the start. It makes a lot of sense that Drake is a successor, and not treated like a pro console, because it's a console generational leap in power and tech.
Click to expand...
If Nvidia doesn't announce anything to use T239 next week at CES, then Drake powered Switch is coming next year. This is because they are already producing the chip, it's not going to be produced right now for a device 13+ months from now.
 
GamerJM said:
Did someone say it was scrapped recently? I watched the DF clip and I don't remember them saying that. I think it's more likely that it was scrapped a couple years ago or so but info on that didn't get out until just now.
Click to expand...
DF did not, which is why I think it makes more sense that what they're talking about is an older, Mariko-based project. Nate is the one who seems to be trying to imply this is a recent development.
 
Z0m3le said:
Wow, this actually could be why "Dane" is a banned search word in the document, just incase they didn't scrub it completely... Wonder when this was suppose to come, maybe there is some possibility that OLED Model was this T236, and could be the missing link to Nate and DF's info, which is seemingly older than the Nvidia hack, but I don't remember when Nate first talked about hearing about it.
Click to expand...
Nothing was scrubbed from the Nvidia hack; there's all kinds of vestigial information and unreleased code. The reason for the occasional mentions of T236 -- just one of many different oddball GPU or SoC names across the generations in the leak -- with no additional information is because, whatever it was, it was never developed beyond some header files into something that would actually appear in the "stage_rel" (staging/release) tree of the source checkout that got leaked. Based on the name, T236 would have been some reduced form of T234, like T239, but that's all we can say about its nature. And what we can say about its development is that it never came close to actually existing and thus could never have been part of hardware Nintendo was offering to third parties.

And it's not correlated with "Dane." There's one keyword blacklist that has "dane" and "drake" but no T23x-type keywords, and then the other blacklists that have some combination of "drake" and "t239" and (very occasionally) "t236" and other oddballs.

Z0m3le said:
If Nvidia doesn't announce anything to use T239 next week at CES, then Drake powered Switch is coming next year. This is because they are already producing the chip, it's not going to be produced right now for a device 13+ months from now.
Click to expand...
We don't have a source that indicates they're currently producing it. Linux commits are not that.
 
None of today's info makes sense in 2022, in my opinion. It wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to release a refresh in 2023 marketed as purely an upgrade.

We'll just have to wait and see, but I'll just keep my fingers crossed for a Switch 2 alongside TotK the way I have all year.
 
ezidro3 said:


This was a mention of T236 from a year and a half ago I could find online (albeit it’s with a question mark and the T239 info is wrong)
Click to expand...

the problem is, the T239 isn't the Orin ADAS, it's Drake. so what he refers to as the T236 is also probably incorrect. the Orin S and ADAS disappeared from roadmaps too
 
LukasManak22 said:
I assume this game started development way earlier than new harware was even in development. We are long overdue for it. I stongly believe we will see it in February Direct.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree here. They made the hiring calls for the game in 2019(fun fact: the same year the hiring calls for TotK were made), from 2017-2019 they probably took their time for prototyping, design, brainstorm, etc, COVID happened...

I think both that and Metroid Prime 4 will be cross gen, so they can sell millions to the 130m+ user base of current Switch while also attracting people to Drake by being very technically impressive games.
 
well, on the plus side

after a few weeks of chaos you all will probably have some peace and quiet to just talk about tech lol
 
LiC said:
Wow, what a time to pop into the thread.

Here are some things that you would not find in a "mid-gen refresh:"
  • RT cores, tensor cores, and DLSS
  • A several times more powerful GPU and CPU
  • A new architecture in the GPU preventing automatic backwards compatibility
Whatever was cancelled, if it was being called a mid-gen refresh, it didn't have the T239 "Drake" SoC in it.

I also believe that, on a spectrum between Mariko and Drake, whatever was cancelled must have been much, much closer to Mariko in terms of feature set. One big reason to think this: the more distinct and newly featured a devkit or SDK was, the more likely its cancellation would lead directly to leaks of SDK documents, devkit photos, etc. People are much more likely to leak after a project becomes public (like the original Switch having SDK documents leaked days after its October reveal) or worse, gets cancelled.

And lastly, as others have said already, I just find it completely implausible that Nintendo would cancel major new hardware having significant new features like DLSS and ray tracing, after the stage where they've already brought third parties on board with devkits and SDKs.

The one thing I am reconsidering is the release timing. Because the late 2020 devkit timing information was a big part of cementing 2023 as the extent of the release window for me, if that information is no longer correct/relevant, it may be that the development timeline of NVN2 and T239 alone is not enough to definitively answer that question. I still think 2023 is the most likely answer, but hopefully there will be more reporting from people who can get their story straight.
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T236 is supposedly in the Nvidia hack mentioned alongside T239. It was mentioned before June 2021, so a long time before the Nvidia hack. Seemingly this could be Orin S, though maybe something entirely custom that could handle both NVN and NVN2. It could be Dane (the banned search word in the back), since Kopite7 mentioned that in spring 2021 and just got the wrong T23X chip alongside it? This could have even been the OLED model's original chip, since T236 doesn't exist any longer and there isn't much point in referencing it alongside T239 if it's not related to drake/Nintendo in some way.

There is no Linux mention of it, but they could have used T234 drivers for it, much like they did for Drake until recently. This also lines up with how old this canceled midgen refresh is, because the info seems to be over a year old, and people don't generally talk about canceled projects until they are completely in the rear view, putting the canceled product in late 2020, remember Bloomberg said developers were briefed on a Switch 4k device in August 2020, this is likely that device and not Drake, which can't launch before 1st half 2023, nearly 3 years after that article.
 
Raccoon said:
well, on the plus side

after a few weeks of chaos you all will probably have some peace and quiet to just talk about tech lol
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I actually have my own discord that has a doomshield, pretty nice to not have chicken little telling us the sky is falling multiple times a day, and the tech inclined can actually discuss the information without having to address every meteorite in the sky.
 
Procheno said:
So here's my theory to understand everything going on:

Sometime earlier (2018 - 2020) in the Switch's lifespan, Nintendo decides to make a midgen refresh with better hardware. This hardware at the time was named "Drake" which had "X" specs.

Development continues to a point where "Drake's" specs had evolved/been beefed up from "X" into its new state "Y". Maybe the launch was delayed due to covid, maybe not. But they kept working on it, continuing to bolster the hardware.

Nintendo goes "At this point, why not just make this 'Drake' kit with the now 'Y' specs the Switch 2 instead?" Thus it explains how the "midgen refresh" idea was "cancelled" while also still having the new gen hardware release at a similar timeframe. All that changed was the original intention/ethereal concept, not a whole piece of kit.

This explains:
  • Why there's no mention of a 3rd piece of hardware in the NVidia leak
  • Why we heard of developers working on games so long ago (Also in no way would Nintendo have so many devs develop games for a hardware then cancel it, obviously destroying their relationships. Also I doubt devs would be happy to know their game launches and work would be delayed by a year at minimum.
  • Why we hear hardware currently being prepared for mass manufactured development starting in just a few weeks.
  • Why some insiders (understandably) are confused at the idea of Nintendo launching a hardware boosted midgen refresh and a next generation console so close together, thus making people assume that the next generation console must be further out and not within a year of the midgen console's original release plan.

Thoughts?
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This is kinda where my head was going when I mentioned the Dane to Drake transition earlier today. Like maybe there was a "Pro" model on Dane that was scrapped in favor of what we now know as Drake.

So, yeah. That's the line of reasoning that would both make sense to me, and utilize all the puzzle pieces, like why Dane was a thing and then suddenly not.

Granted I'm not a tech person at all, I just read this thread a lot 😅

Z0m3le said:
T236 is supposedly in the Nvidia hack mentioned alongside T239. It was mentioned before June 2021, so a long time before the Nvidia hack. Seemingly this could be Orin S, though maybe something entirely custom that could handle both NVN and NVN2. It could be Dane (the banned search word in the back), since Kopite7 mentioned that in spring 2021 and just got the wrong T23X chip alongside it? This could have even been the OLED model's original chip, since T236 doesn't exist any longer and there isn't much point in referencing it alongside T239 if it's not related to drake/Nintendo in some way.
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This is another puzzle piece I overlooked, the OLED. I don't have one but I've read there are some things about its dock that seem futureproofed? Like not just the 4K capable display adapter but like extra vents and stuff that aren't used, right? If OLED was supposed to have an upgraded chip that wasn't as beefy as Drake and they decided late in the game to bail on that for one big jump in a few years, I could see that causing wires to be crossed as far as the leaks and such.
 
Pokemaniac said:
DF did not, which is why I think it makes more sense that what they're talking about is an older, Mariko-based project. Nate is the one who seems to be trying to imply this is a recent development.
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Sol said:
But why would dev kits be sent out for a Mariko device with faster clocks?
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I think someone got their wires crossed based on incomplete or outdated information. Just like how we believed OLED was going to be an actual PRO, and it ended up not being the case. No way another TX1 was going to be released this year or the next. That ship started sailing with Mariko revision, and then with OLED.
Nate predicted an orion based chip would be a Switch "Pro," but really. I'm sure it was really just Nintendo wondering how the heck they would advertise this thing, and they decided they would go full out successor from the start. Worst case scenario, this thing releases in 2024. But this is me speculating outside of what Digital Foundry thinks. Just if Nintendo thinks they can milk switch another year without a successor.

I'm hoping May 2023 still. If we don't get word by Feb, then it's likely to be later... Summer, Q4, or 2024.
Z0m3le said:
If Nvidia doesn't announce anything to use T239 next week at CES, then Drake powered Switch is coming next year. This is because they are already producing the chip, it's not going to be produced right now for a device 13+ months from now.
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And if they do?.. Like for a next gen Nvidia shield? It could go either way. And perhaps they could release the Shield after Drake as well, so they could priortize Drake numbers first.
 
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Chijin_08 said:
I saw another reply he made on this tweet and I’m pretty sure he just feels vindicated that the switch pro he was talking about did exist and he wasn’t just lying.
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Yeah that’s how I understood it too. People were giving him hell when the SWOLED was announced so he definitely taking a victory lap in their races rn
 
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