StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[DariliumA]

Features of the hardware that was relayed to me as a "Switch revision" are similar to those of the leaked Drake specs.

4K, DLSS and such were all reported well before the NVN2 leak. The leak only served to back that information as credible.

As said, I'll discuss the matter of hardware for 2023 in the coming weeks -- with additional info acquired over a span of many months.

[Speculation Citation] Could the Drake SoC have been the base for the revision and plans changed once the SoC evolved beyond original vision & became better suited for a next-gen successor? Maybe.

Sorry but this post is unclear.

How can a device be shelved when we know there’s something related to NVN2 and partners were told to prepare their software for H2 2022 / H1 2023. What did Nintendo tell them? Oh we’re removing those kits from you and basically you can just throw your games away too.

This makes no sense. If partners were told this early about a Switch Pro and were told the product was shelved sometime in 2022 then Nintendo should also have told them immediately what the new plan is especially considering the leaked NVN2 stuff matches perfectly with the kits that were going around and we know for a fact tests were being run on Drake a few weeks ago.

This makes no sense if the revision was scrapped to just turn into the succ, because that’s marketing intricacies partners should not need to know about at this stage.

What I want to say is that IF the Pro was scrapped in favor of the successor, then where did the games developed for Pro go and how come do partners know that SKU was canceled but don’t know that they can simply salvage millions worth of money by putting this software on the successor which seemingly uses the SAME chip or at least a very, very similar one with DLSS and the likes?

Makes no sense that they’d know about one half but not the other.

 

[Eclissi]

I've hinted already that there's reasons unrelated to spec improvements to push for a successor instead of a refresh, and because of that the same chip could theoretically power both devices.

So to answer your question, both. My best guess right now is that Nintendo cancelled a Drake-powered refresh to go in a different direction, which also happens to be a device powered by Drake. But something happened that caused them to abandon the refresh route.

A refresh, for definition is not a totally change of hardware.
Mariko overclocked would have been a refresh, sure not a SoC T239.
No one (except for Nintendo, eventually) could call Switch Drake a refresh hardware. Sure no John.

 

[Jersh]

A refresh, for definition is not a totally change of hardware.
Mariko overclocked would have been a refresh, sure not a SoC T239.
No one (except for Nintendo, eventually) could call Switch Drake a refresh hardware. Sure no John.

I don't agree, and we can leave it there.

 

[YolkFolk]

Tom saying he is hopeful for switch "2" in 2023, and them acknowledging Drake is really meaning they are talking about something separate here imo. Drake is also still very current hardware, well after Nate's info was given to him.

With Drake's updates being weeks old, it's clearly not a canceled device. What you could have heard about was a new 2ds xl type of switch model, but because that info is not what df is seemingly discussing, I think we should just look at the most recent info, and that is that just weeks ago, Drake is in testing and Linux updates are currently happening for a finished silicon that is still getting NVN2 work done.

I think it is also worth noting that with Drake not being canceled, Nvidia's leak from March 1st, shows us no other chip exists for Nintendo apis outside of TX1 and T239.

Basically whatever you've heard, isn't being done internally at Nvidia, which is odd if it does exist, given Nvidia would be needed for any DLSS hardware.

I appreciate your posts and you’re excellent on the tech side but you also do have a history of being overly optimistic with these things.

You were sure this device was launching when the OLED came out. Then you were sure this was coming in 2022. You even stated an announcement was ‘imminent’ back in the summer.

It could be that your passion and enthusiasm is clouding what is really going on here. I’d love for you to be right of course, but it does seem like DF have no indications of any device coming next year despite their vast sources.

 

[Eclissi]

I don't agree, and we can leave it there.

Yes, as you like, but you can disagree with an opinion, not with a definition.

 

[Brofield]

Hold firm for an announcement by March 31st, 2023 - the end of the fiscal year. If we know nothing, pack up because we're done until 2025. Put the thread on mute if you have emotional investment, and come along with me to bitch and moan about their lacklustre NSO legacy support.

I accept that Drake is now with certainty a full on successor. The node will be better than 8nm by necessity, and the stupid beast of a tablet will be too damn expensive even if I could get one at launch. Listen to the occasional NateDrake podcast, and rest easy knowing that IF something is threadworthy regarding new hardware, a thread will be made on this very site, the home of dedicated Nintendo enthusiasts who tend to care about that sort of thing (I think, not so sure tbh idk)

 

[Eclissi]

Sorry but this post is unclear.

How can a device be shelved when we know there’s something related to NVN2 and partners were told to prepare their software for H2 2022 / H1 2023. What did Nintendo tell them? Oh we’re removing those kits from you and basically you can just throw your games away too.

This makes no sense. If partners were told this early about a Switch Pro and were told the product was shelved sometime in 2022 then Nintendo should also have told them immediately what the new plan is especially considering the leaked NVN2 stuff matches perfectly with the kits that were going around and we know for a fact tests were being run on Drake a few weeks ago.

This makes no sense if the revision was scrapped to just turn into the succ, because that’s marketing intricacies partners should not need to know about at this stage.

Yes.
No sense.

 

[daase ko]

A refresh, for definition is not a totally change of hardware.
Mariko overclocked would have been a refresh, sure not a SoC T239.
No one (except for Nintendo, eventually) could call Switch Drake a refresh hardware. Sure no John.

Yes the leak was clearly at odds with previous report of a revision. It was mindboggling to me to treat it as a backup, when people here were deciphering it and showed it was a new architecture and a massive power gap.

 

[Skittzo]

Why would it ostensibly be the same device? The implication here, I think, is that it's not, despite using the same chip. At least, that's my running theory of what's going down.

I mean in purpose it would be the same device. Sure the branding and form factor might be a bit different but there's no way they were going to make a "simple" pro style revision with Drake whose only purpose was to play existing switch games at 4k. That's massive overkill for that purpose, and not exactly in line with Nintendo's typical MO.

It was always rumored to be getting exclusives too. In practice there's really no difference between a Drake Switch Pro and a Drake Switch 2.

 

[Jersh]

Yes, as you like, but you can disagree with an opinion, not with a definition.

Are you really claiming your made up definition of revision as objective fact?

 

[DariliumA]

I mean in purpose it would be the same device. Sure the branding and form factor might be a bit different but there's no way they were going to make a "simple" pro style revision with Drake whose only purpose was to play existing switch games at 4k. That's massive overkill for that purpose, and not exactly in line with Nintendo's typical MO.

It was always rumored to be getting exclusives too. In practice there's really no difference between a Drake Switch Pro and a Drake Switch 2.

Exactly this, it was either going to be a scaled back iterative successor which is what we thought it was in 2020 and 2021. Then the 8nm, 12SMs details and so on came out during 2022 and at this point it was clear it became too big to just be iterative.

Whether the first device morphed into the second remains to be seen, but that changes roughly nothing to the pipeline, especially for partners except potentially pushing back the release date but they’d still have one. Things are being thrown here as if the device was cancelled and partners were told they were getting their toys and money confiscated forever.

 

[DariliumA]

Are you really claiming your made up definition of revision as objective fact?

Don’t die on this hill. He’s right.

Edit: sorry double post!
I’ll elaborate: considering the hardware and NVN2 being used whilst Nvidia did not have any NVNx folders for Mariko or Erista, then yes we can confidently say this was never « just » a revision the way Nintendo sees it.

 

[Sol]

Wait, so the dev kits that went out in 2020/2021 were for this mid-gen refresh...not Drake?

If it was just an upclocked Mariko why would there even need to be dev kits?

 

[mariodk18]

So...much ado about nothing?

 

[Jersh]

there's no way they were going to make a "simple" pro style revision with Drake whose only purpose was to play existing switch games at 4k.

This is a very, very large assumption, regardless of history - especially for one that you're hinging your understanding of events on.

It was always rumored to be getting exclusives too. In practice there's really no difference between a Drake Switch Pro and a Drake Switch 2.

"Next-gen device" is a much broader term than Switch 2. What I'm suggesting isn't that Nintendo pivoted from no exclusives allowed (which was never happening) to 'actually exclusives are fine and we'll probably mostly have those down the road' (a la PS5, and what I expected to happen), but that they're planning something with a different focus entirely.

Basically, all those questions as to what Nintendo's next gimmick would be - the cancelled device didn't have one, and whatever they're still working on does, if I'm right. Both could've used Drake as a foundation. Nintendo could even view the project as an evolution of the revision instead of something different, but it gets relayed to devs as a cancellation because it's not the same device they were expecting. There's a lot we don't know right now.

 

[lexony]

My bet is that there still is some kind of problem to solve with this new hardware (maybe backwards compatibility which is really important to not lose their huge userbase IMO) and they figured they can still develop on it. As disappointing it maybe is, Nintendo Switch will have amazing software sales without any new hardware next year. Especially with Zelda or that rumored Donkey Kong game, I‘m sure will look good enough on the current Switch. And there is also the movie, their merchandise which is much more present, the theme park(s) and maybe a few other things. From a business perspective they really can keep it slow.

 

[DariliumA]

Wait, so the dev kits that went out in 2020/2021 were for this mid-gen refresh...not Drake?

If it was just an upclocked Mariko why would there even need to be dev kits?

Apparently, yes. But Nate has confirmed what he heard and what Bloomberg reported on coincided greatly with the NVN2 leak on a number of features: DLSS, 4K output, RT cores.

Which begs the question: why was the refresh device entirely canned and why were partners told about it when the successor device looks to be having a very similar chip to the refresh device? They could simply have received new devkits.

 

[Z0m3le]

Why would it ostensibly be the same device? The implication here, I think, is that it's not, despite using the same chip. At least, that's my running theory of what's going down.

While we don't know if Dane was ever a codename for T239, we do know that that word is banned in the Nvidia hack data, you can't search for "Dane" which is very odd. The report that Nintendo wasn't happy with the power draw, could also indicate that they moved from Samsung 8nm to a more efficient node. It's all tinfoil-y, but that is the one theory I've heard that could actually make this all make sense.

It's important to point out that Drake is ready and current rumors are that it's starting full production right now.

 

[Jersh]

Don’t die on this hill. He’s right.

Edit: sorry double post!
I’ll elaborate: considering the hardware and NVN2 being used whilst Nvidia did not have any NVNx folders for Mariko or Erista, then yes we can confidently say this was never « just » a revision the way Nintendo sees it.

I'm not dying on the hill at all costs, but I'm not budging from it with the info we have right now. Your elaboration doesn't contradict anything I've said.

 

[mariodk18]

My bet is that there still is some kind of problem to solve with this new hardware (maybe backwards compatibility which is really important to not lose their huge userbase IMO) and they figured they can still develop on it. As disappointing it maybe is, Nintendo Switch will have amazing software sales without any new hardware next year. And there is also the movie, their merchandise which is much more present, the theme park(s) and maybe a few other things. From a business perspective they really can keep it slow.

For BC, they started dev on this thing in 2019. If Nvidia hasn't figured out a BC solution for Drake by now, then 2 more years isn't going to help.

 

[Eclissi]

Are you really claiming your made up definition of revision as objective fact?

definition
/ˌdɛfɪˈnɪʃn/
1.
a statement of the exact meaning of a word

 

[Skittzo]

This is a very, very large assumption, regardless of history - especially for one that you're hinging your understanding of events on.


"Next-gen device" is a much broader term than Switch 2. What I'm suggesting isn't that Nintendo pivoted from no exclusives allowed (which was never happening) to 'actually exclusives are fine and we'll probably mostly have those down the road' (a la PS5, and what I expected to happen), but that they're planning something with a different focus entirely.

Basically, all those questions as to what Nintendo's next gimmick would be - the cancelled device didn't have one, and whatever they're still working on does, if I'm right. Both could've used Drake as a foundation. Nintendo could even view the project as an evolution of the revision instead of something different, but it gets relayed to devs as a cancellation because it's not the same device they were expecting. There's a lot we don't know right now.

Again, even if there is a typical new gen Nintendo gimmick it's still functionally - specifically for third party developers - almost the same thing. To the extent that I don't believe for a second that they would consider the Drake "revision" to be cancelled in lieu of a Drake "successor".

I don't believe anyone could logically come to that opinion unless we're missing some enormous change in philosophy, like dropping the Switch brand or using a completely new display/input format or something.

 

[Hosermess]

The devkits with RT & DLSS that were reported on way back when (as in most cases from what I understand) would have likely just been pieced together to hit certain specs with certain features.

Maybe Nvidia overdelivered on the RT/DLSS chip and they surpassed Nintendo's expectations so much so that using Drake for a 'revision' didn't make sense anymore.

I do recall a bunch of posts in this thread remarking that a Switch using Drake to hit 4k (which was the very first reported feature of the 'new' Switch) is overkill.

Who knows.

 

[mariodk18]

definition
/ˌdɛfɪˈnɪʃn/
1.
a statement of the exact meaning of a word

Can this not be continued in DMs? I think it's at the point that it doesn't need to go on in here.

 

[DariliumA]

I'm not dying on the hill at all costs, but I'm not budging from it with the info we have right now. Your elaboration doesn't contradict anything I've said.

I disagree entirely - let’s leave it there.

 

[Jersh]

It's important to point out that Drake is ready and current rumors are that it's starting full production right now.

The fact that we know NVN2 is tied to Drake doesn't mean that Drake is locked to devices using NVN2.

 

[Magic-Man]

Sorry but this post is unclear.

How can a device be shelved when we know there’s something related to NVN2 and partners were told to prepare their software for H2 2022 / H1 2023. What did Nintendo tell them? Oh we’re removing those kits from you and basically you can just throw your games away too.

This makes no sense. If partners were told this early about a Switch Pro and were told the product was shelved sometime in 2022 then Nintendo should also have told them immediately what the new plan is especially considering the leaked NVN2 stuff matches perfectly with the kits that were going around and we know for a fact tests were being run on Drake a few weeks ago.

This makes no sense if the revision was scrapped to just turn into the succ, because that’s marketing intricacies partners should not need to know about at this stage.

What I want to say is that IF the Pro was scrapped in favor of the successor, then where did the games developed for Pro go and how come do partners know that SKU was canceled but don’t know that they can simply salvage millions worth of money by putting this software on the successor which seemingly uses the SAME chip or at least a very, very similar one with DLSS and the likes?

Makes no sense that they’d know about one half but not the other.

Small nitpick, but we don't know if devs were told to prepare software. It's just a rumor.

 

[mariodk18]

The fact that we know NVN2 is tied to Drake doesn't mean that Drake is locked to devices using NVN2.

Have we seen Drake or T239 anywhere else though?

 

[Z0m3le]

I appreciate your posts and you’re excellent on the tech side but you also do have a history of being overly optimistic with these things.

You were sure this device was launching when the OLED came out. Then you were sure this was coming in 2022. You even stated an announcement was ‘imminent’ back in the summer.

It could be that your passion and enthusiasm is clouding what is really going on here. I’d love for you to be right of course, but it does seem like DF have no indications of any device coming next year despite their vast sources.

Actually right before bloomberg's leak, I was saying that I heard it wasn't coming until this FY, which ends on April 1st 2023, I do believe it will come with Zelda, however nothing in my post you responded to has anything to do with my history. I'm just pointing out that from the Nvidia hack, we know there is no other hardware outside of TX1 and T239. We also know T239 is currently in production and is being tested on both Linux and NVN2, like as of weeks ago, well after this info about a canceled midgen refresh.

 

[Eclissi]

Can this not be continued in DMs? I think it's at the point that it doesn't need to go on in here.

Sure, not problem

 

[ILikeFeet]

I don't think Nintendo wants to repeat the 3DS launch again. That was truly a bad launch and it helped drive them to a big price cut very quickly

that's why having most, if not all of their games being cross gen would help Drake along. a handful of exclusives and some big name third party games would do Drake good. it's already a proven tactic and I think it would work well for Drake

Orin did not even get sampled out until end of 2021 is the problem and production didn't even start until 2022. If they were working on a hypothetical Drake it would have been some Frankenstein chip meant to simulate what drake would end up as and would have been years ahead of when orin was even ready which doesnt make sense.

Orin was sampled earlier than 2021. remember that it's an automotive chip first and needed certification for all the autonomous processing which takes a long time. only the jetson kits are recent

Really? The launches of 3DS and Wii U suffered badly due to a lack of compelling first party software.

What helped Switch do so well was the amazing lineup of first party titles over the first 12 months.

The last thing Nintendo need is to release a console with a lack of big hitters in the first 12-18 months.

with cross gen, they won't have the problems of the 3DS and Wii U. the public has shown they don't care about cross gen as long as there's an improvement

 

[Serif]

While we don't know if Dane was ever a codename for T239, we do know that that word is banned in the Nvidia hack data, you can't search for "Dane" which is very odd.

 

[lexony]

For BC, they started dev on this thing in 2019. If Nvidia hasn't figured out a BC solution for Drake by now, then 2 more years isn't going to help.

The Hardware seemed to have changed a lot since then. Maybe they want to integrate new features, I don‘t know.

 

[DariliumA]

Small nitpick, but we don't know if devs were told to prepare software. It's just a rumor.

No worries you’re right, indeed, but both info come from Nate. So if we doubt this, we can also doubt the revision/succ discourse he just announced. I’m pretty sure both info came from the same sources.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Hmm the possibility of Mario launching on Switch 2 this holiday I can see

 

[lexony]

We are cursed.

 

[Z0m3le]

The fact that we know NVN2 is tied to Drake doesn't mean that Drake is locked to devices using NVN2.

When I say I think it's coming with Zelda, I am not trying to state a fact. However Drake doesn't make sense in Nvidia's product stack and if an Nvidia product was coming with the chip that is currently in production, it will be announced right around now, if CES passes and Nvidia hasn't announced a new product with Drake, it's not going to happen for a Nvidia product.

 

[Jersh]

like dropping the Switch brand or using a completely new display/input format or something.

That's the level of difference I'm getting at, yes. Sorry, I didn't realize I hadn't been spelling it out (that's not a slight, rereading my posts I really should've been more clear).

 

[Skittzo]

That's the level of difference I'm getting at, yes. Sorry, I didn't realize I hadn't been spelling it out (that's not a slight, rereading my posts I really should've been more clear).

Yeah in that case I can see them considering it a cancelled.

Feels extraordinarily in unlikely though that they'd make such a radical departure from the Switch.

 

[Serif]

Have we seen Drake or T239 anywhere else though?

The Linux kernel commits. Those wouldn't be for Nintendo since the Horizon OS is closed-source and all T239 work related to Nintendo would be private.
I think they will use T239 in a Shield TV. But I would find it odd if a Shield TV 2 came out much earlier than a Switch 2 with both using the same chip. Not impossible, but odd.

 

[TonyBaduy]

If the Switch 2 won't be using Drake anymore (big IF) then I'd imagine they'd develop a new SoC, this would take around 4 years again (time it took to make Drake), so we'd be seeing the Switch 2027 the earliest.

 

[DariliumA]

Yeah in that case I can see them considering it a cancelled.

Feels extraordinarily in unlikely though that they'd make such a radical departure from the Switch.

I don’t get why developers wouldn’t just port their software over to whatever new SDK Nintendo has cooked up. I don’t see them rolling up to partners just saying ‘right-o this thing is dead, sorry you invested money but cancel your games, see you next time’ without telling them the successor SDK is very close to the SDK they were using to develop on. There’s literally no reason for this.

 

[CypressFX]

Actually right before bloomberg's leak, I was saying that I heard it wasn't coming until this FY, which ends on April 1st 2023, I do believe it will come with Zelda, however nothing in my post you responded to has anything to do with my history. I'm just pointing out that from the Nvidia hack, we know there is no other hardware outside of TX1 and T239. We also know T239 is currently in production and is being tested on both Linux and NVN2, like as of weeks ago, well after this info about a canceled midgen refresh.

I dont remember that you were telling us that it wont come out until this FY ?!

Is there any post or similiar to back up this history?

 

[Jersh]

Yeah in that case I can see them considering it a cancelled.

Feels extraordinarily in unlikely though that they'd make such a radical departure from the Switch.

Perhaps. That's just the simplest way I can reconcile everything in a way that makes sense without anything credible being flat-out wrong. Maybe Nintendo actually has another killer concept on their hands again, who knows? It wouldn't be the first (or second, or third) time.

Or maybe they don't and something we previously believed to be correct is wrong. It'll be hard to say before we see whatever they release next.

 

[lexony]

At least we already know now what we can expect from 2023 from what it seems like. Better than hoping for a whole year that it might could happen.

 

[Sol]

Apparently, yes. But Nate has confirmed what he heard and what Bloomberg reported on coincided greatly with the NVN2 leak on a number of features: DLSS, 4K output, RT cores.

Which begs the question: why was the refresh device entirely canned and why were partners told about it when the successor device looks to be having a very similar chip to the refresh device? They could simply have received new devkits.

Yeah, the timeline most definitely does not make sense.

Unless Drake was originally being planned for 2024 and was moved up a year when the revision was cancelled.

 

[Dakhil]

I dont remember that you were telling us that it wont come out until this FY ?!

Is there any post or similiar to back up this history?

Nikkei made an assumption that Nintendo won't release hardware before the end of the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2023 based on Shuntaro Furukawa's comments on continuing to sell all three models in the Nintendo Switch family for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2023.

 

[Z0m3le]

I dont remember that you were telling us that it wont come out until this FY ?!

Is there any post or similiar to back up this history?

I'm not going to dive into my history from June or july 2021, but feel free. I almost exclusively post in nintendo tech threads. Right before bloomberg made it's announcement, a day or two before it, I had said I heard it was this FY. It's still irrelevant to this discussion, once bloomberg made it's announcements, well I'm not an insider, so I believed them, nate was the one who said it didn't sound right, so I give a lot of credit to him, even if he did end up going with bloomberg, he made it clear that his sources were saying this FY too.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The Linux kernel commits. Those wouldn't be for Nintendo since the Horizon OS is closed-source and all T239 work related to Nintendo would be private.
I think they will use T239 in a Shield TV. But I would find it odd if a Shield TV 2 came out much earlier than a Switch 2 with both using the same chip. Not impossible, but odd.

Samsung yields strike again

 

[bmfrosty]

Actually right before bloomberg's leak, I was saying that I heard it wasn't coming until this FY, which ends on April 1st 2023, I do believe it will come with Zelda, however nothing in my post you responded to has anything to do with my history. I'm just pointing out that from the Nvidia hack, we know there is no other hardware outside of TX1 and T239. We also know T239 is currently in production and is being tested on both Linux and NVN2, like as of weeks ago, well after this info about a canceled midgen refresh.

I have failed to keep up, but just on the basis of the new Zelda game and Mario movie, I believe we'll see a much more computationally capable Switch system and new Mario game in 2023.