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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Skittzo said:
I have trouble believing they'd be putting driver information into the Linux kernel for a chip that is now being repurposed.

I similarly have trouble believing that such a chip which is confirmed to physically exists is going to sit on shelves for more than 18 months before being launched in a product not called Shield TV.

Something is not adding up here, and I don't think the information straight from Nvidia can really be in dispute.
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I agree, a lot of things just don't add up.
 
I said I was out but this is too weird to drop from just yet. Feeling flummoxed

Just some thoughts rolling about my head:
  • Bloomberg reported in 2021 that 11+ developers had 4K kits and titles targeting late 2022 and early 2023.
  • Mochizuki added the commentary that developers would likely lose trust in Nintendo if they didn't follow through with a device (paraphrased, can’t find source)
  • when everybody got into a tizzy around July/August for the new Switch announcement coming, and Mochizuki chimed in with the vague but likely deliberate "2 early." We never got to the bottom of the statement, but it felt almost certain that we were all just expecting an announcement too early - not that something wasn’t happening.
It still feels like something has to be coming, otherwise it’d be a real shit show for Nintendo behind the scenes.
 
There has to be a conflict of information somewhere.

My thoughts:
I don't see the existence of a PRO (now cancelled) a year before next-gen Drake. If this news were from last year....perhaps... but a 1 year gap between them? I really cant see that.

It would also be a lack of trust with 3d parties to have worked on games 2-3 years only to have them remain in limbo or not even come out.

Now, if Drake finally comes out in 2024 with a more fresh Samsung node (3-5nm) and next year the new ShieldTV comes out in 8nm (So all the info coming from Linux is due to it and its tape-out) I see it more plausible, but I still don't understand the information of today's cancellation, it doesn't fit in any intelligent plan.
Delay? Yeah. But cancelling something we have 0 info? ...
 
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pelusilla6 said:
There has to be a conflict of information somewhere.

My thoughts:
I don't see the existence of a PRO (now cancelled) a year before next-gen Drake. If this news were from last year....perhaps... but a 1 year gap between them? I really cant see that.

It would also be a lack of trust with 3d parties to have worked on games 2-3 years only to have them remain in limbo or not even come out.

Now, if Drake finally comes out in 2024 with a more fresh Samsung node (3-5) and next year the new ShieldTV comes out in 8nm (So all the info coming from Linux is due to it and its tape-out) I see it more plausible, but I still don't understand the information of today's cancellation, it doesn't fit in any intelligent plan.
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Where are you getting the 2024 date?
 
… I was literally just here like 10 hours ago, and now there’s 10 new pages to read. 😳

Oh well. All I’m taking from this is that the “revision vs successor“ debate has finally been put to rest. Drake will be Switch 2, and if we hear nothing from Nintendo by February then H1 23 is off the table. Thank you and good night.
 
I'm looking forward to more of this story becoming clear. I'm part of the group that was feeling a 2023 hardware launch with Drake was possible. It sounds like the talk is a 2023 mid-gen refresh isn't happening, so I guess the possibility of "Switch Pro in 2023" is gone based on the rumors. I'm still left with a question of what this means for Drake and if any successor hardware (Switch 2) might release in 2023, perhaps because we have concrete evidence of something being worked on and because 2023 is not a terribly unlikely year for new hardware, given the Switch's age and previous cycles. If the next jump in power has been pushed to 2024 or later, that's actually a relief for me because I was worried about how easy it would be to buy one in 2023.

If I could boil my questions down, running with the assumption that Nintendo is always working on the next generation and something is always coming, they would be:

1. Is it still worth analyzing/discussing Drake specifically for what to expect from upcoming Nintendo hardware, or have plans evolved?
2. Do we have any idea of when the next piece of Nintendo hardware that represents a change in functionality (i.e. GCN => Wii) and/or power (either a successor like DS => 3DS or an iteration like 3DS => n3DS) is coming? I'm looking for the next hardware in the same style as progressions like GCN => Wii (=> maybe Wii MotionPlus) => Wii U => Switch and GBA => DS => DSi => 3DS => n3DS => Switch.
3. Do we know if Nintendo has any new hardware planned for 2023? For example, a Switch 2, Switch Lite OLED, Switch Micro, Switch Heavy, etc. As others have pointed out, new hardware every couple years is pretty common for Nintendo.

I know the answers are likely all "I don't know" for everyone posting here and possibly even everyone reading this thread.

All in all, I'm happy with my Switch. If anything, I'm tired of the discourse that Switch must be replaced. That said, we're getting to that point in the life cycle when new hardware might normally be introduced while PS5/XS consoles are beginning to mature in the market and credible leaks about new chips have popped up. So my curiosity about the Nintendo hardware roadmap is high.
 
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karmitt said:
when everybody got into a tizzy around July/August for the new Switch announcement coming, and Mochizuki chimed in with the vague but likely deliberate "2 early." We never got to the bottom of the statement, but it felt almost certain that we were all just expecting an announcement too early - not that something wasn’t happening.
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oh my fucking god. I know I said I was out but it was right in front of us all along.

the pro got cancelled so we're getting the 2 early.
 
9-Volt said:
There's a peak for Switch hardware sales and we don't know how close we are to it right now. Nintendo does. And definitely will act accordingly.
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Since this FY year sales are less than last FY, the peak has already passed.

"Nintendo does. And definitely will act accordingly." - strong disagree (unfortunately) . I distinctly remember Iwata explaining that DS was being replaced first because Wii was still selling well, and remember my saying to myself "Iwata, what data are you looking at" since Wii support has died and it was clear Wii was not even on its last legs except maybe in japan. WiiU came 1.5 years after 3DS, 1.5 years during which Wii lost any significant mindshare it had in the market.
 
I can get behind a scenario where a so called pro model was cancelled, but such cancellation would have happened around 2019 or 2020 at the latest, because I seriously don't believe that Nintendo was planning a pro model in 2023 or even in late 2022. For the sake of argument, let's pretend that indeed, a pro model was cancelled in summer 2020 as it became clear that covid was here to stay. Let's also assume that this model was supposed to have a Xavier chip, and was repurposed as the OLED model. If we believe in such scenario, then it also means that anyone claiming to have new information about the said pro model after summer 2020 was either lying, or heavily speculating based on severely outdated info.

I personally believe that there was never a pro model planned, just internal tests with whatever Nvidia had to offer. That Drake things seems to advanced to have been a test, and I believe that's what we'll get, more or less. Could be in 2023, could be in 2024, or even 2025.
2024 is my bet.
 
DF said that they think new hardware will come in 2024. The annoying this is that the statement they give isn’t particularly clear on if that was an assumption based on what their contacts have told told them directly or cold facts.
 
karmitt said:
It still feels like something has to be coming, otherwise it’d be a real shit show for Nintendo behind the scenes.
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When looking at recent Switch titles (Bayo, Pokemon, a concerning amount of big name subpar ports) I kept in mind that those might've been launch window Drake titles that would've sold the upside of the Drake versions when contrasted with the OG Switch ones - but Drake got pushed to 2023, and the titles still had to release. Zelda got pushed along with Drake because it's first party.

If Zelda releases without Drake, however, I'm going to put some belief in Nintendo having major trouble behind the scenes. Maybe the pandemic + general caution around a platform transition is impairing their decision making.
 
I would actually be glad for it coming next year, and that also means software wise. I can't imagine waiting another 2 years for new 3D Mario because it will release alongside hardware.
 
I also think that the WiiU failed more because it sucked than because the Wii lost momentum. That momentum thing is overblown, I believe.
 
In case my previous post gets lost at the end of the last page, here's a tldr:

If Drake was canceled, shelved, or delayed, what kit have devs been working with for (I assume going by DF and Nate) the past several months? We had Dane, then Drake, so are we on Dave now? Wouldn't we have heard about 1. Drake kits being recalled and 2. newer kits being sent out?
Unless that's what Polygon and Nate meant by devs getting "briefed" AKA "lol sike hold onto those Drake exclusives for another year+" or "actually we want more from Drake, so we're going for a die shrink that will release in late 2023". I can see a (final) second delay to holiday 2023, but basically a full year delay to 2024? At that point I'm more curious as to what it will launch with. Mario or Mario Kart? But they would have to reveal MK10 in a Sep 2023 Direct for a Mar 2024 release, which I doubt because it would be in the middle of the 2nd year of MK DLC...So they launch with 3D Mario or Prime 4 later?...

If Nintendo has started over with another system behind the scenes almost SIX years after Switch...then I'm sorry, but their next system would deserve to fail at that point. Unless we're going for an OG Gameboy length "generation" of 9.5 years...but GBC only happened because Atlantis (original GBA) was too hot and hungry...

Mochizuki, save us, you're our only hope!
 
eye0h said:
DF said that they think new hardware will come in 2024. The annoying this is that the statement they give isn’t particularly clear on if that was an assumption based on what their contacts have told told them directly or cold facts.
Click to expand...

I think any 2024 speculation is solely based on the notion that "it's about time"
 
This reminds me of when BOTW was rumoured not to be launching on Switch, and it was delayed, and people were freaking out.
 
Maxrunner said:
I sure wish Nintendo good luck if they think they can sustain momentum till next year with the current machine. It will be a massacre in the dedicated media.
Click to expand...

Some people said the same about 2022. At the end of the day, it’s inevitable that Switch will fall behind at some point, just as PS4 fell behind the Switch. It won’t be disastrous, it’s just what happens when an older console comes towards its twilight years. There will be no massacre.
 
0
How good will it be that Ethics came with Christmas?

Until now Nintendo has kept something called STANDARD, thus maintaining the capabilities of its system, even though there are two versions of its SoC.

This STANDARD has allowed developers to reach a wider audience. By creating a new Standard, migration will be promoted, Nintendo is not only power in its processor, the main thing is its controller and the Audio and Video broadcast medium.

Many have no idea what Nintendo is next for, but if there are any signs of delivering new gameplay for Tears of the Kingdom with a new controller, as I said before at least one new controller should be coming soon.

In previous years we have had Nintendo Switch Lite/Oled and other peripherals accompanied by games like Nintendo Labo, Pokémon Let Go, Ring Fit, Mario Kart Live, but this 2022 nothing, Is it the calm before the storm?
 
Like there is a much better question to ask that would clear up all of this (to Nate, DF, Imran, anyone else out there):

Has there been another, new set of Nintendo development kits for significantly different hardware sent out after September of 2021?
 
0
Look over there said:
Guess this got lost in the flurry today...
So, from piecing together what's known from the Nvidia hack and the Linux kernel commits (keep in mind that we don't know clock frequencies):

- T239/Drake's CPU core is presumed to be A78C. Reasoning: T234/Orin uses an A78 variant. Also, Linux kernel commits state 1 cluster of 8 CPU cores. There is an absence of additional code to support heterogeneous computing (mixed architectures/core types), so the likely assumption is that only 1 CPU architecture is being used. As far as off the shelf ARM cores go, A78C is the earliest that allows 1 cluster/8 cores.
Performance-wise... it varies according to the workload, but going by Geekbench 5, the A78 is about 2.5x as performant per clock as the A57 (the CPU architecture used in base Switch). Also, the base Switch uses 4 A57 cores, with 1 reserved for the Operating System and 3 used for games. With an 8 core configuration for Drake, our speculation tends towards 1 for OS/7 for games, but it's fair to consider the chance of 2 for OS/6 for games.
If you want to compare against PS4 (Jaguar) or PS5 (Zen 2): A57 should be slightly ahead of Jaguar? So A78 stays at least 2.5x performant per clock compared to the Jaguar. The A78 is also actually slightly ahead of (monolithic) Zen 2 in Geekbench 5 (again, on a per clock basis). I think that the PS4 makes 6 or 6.5 cores available for games? And apparently the PS5 makes 6.5 cores available, according to Digital Foundry's video on Gotham Knights.
Do keep in mind that Geekbench 5 is more relevant for performance as a 'general computing device' than 'dedicated gaming device'. But nevertheless, A57->A78 is a giant leap.

- The GPU is 12 SMs of the Ampere architecture, according to the Nvidia hack. Don't worry about what SMs are; just treat them as building blocks/units to roughly approximate the size. The Switch is 2 SMs of (somewhat updated) Maxwell. Right off the bat, the GPU is six times as large. If clocks are the same, that's 6x raw grunt before taking into account improvements from changes in architecture and additional features. And going from Maxwell to Ampere is a major leap in architecture and featureset.
Uh, for comparison against PS4 (GCN) or PS5 (...glorified-RDNA1?), someone else can handle that.

- As far as RAM goes, we're looking at a 128-bit bus width and most likely LPDDR5, with a long shot of LPDDR5X. To compare, the base Switch uses 64-bit LPDDR4/4X (regular 4's been phased out, so it had to change to 4X eventually; no change in clocks)
Assuming LPDDR5, we're looking at up to 102.4 GB/s memory bandwidth and a minimum quantity of 8 GB. Base Switch has bandwidth of 25.6 GB/s and a quantity of 4 GB. The memory bandwidth will go from 'is typically a bottleneck for the Switch right now' to 'depending on CPU/GPU clocks, it's probably actually fine'. And when I say minimum quantity of 8 GB, I mean that the smallest option offered by RAM manufacturers to fill a 128-bit wide bus with regular LPDDR5 is 8 GB (it'd be a pair of 64-bit 4 GB modules). Btw, the next step up is not 10, but actually 12 GB (a pair of 64-bit 6 GB modules).

- Takeaways:
You can assign Drake the task of serving as the Next Generation flagship of Switch style devices, and it is absolutely capable of executing that task.
If you want to do a comparison to other systems, I like to think of the (docked) floor as being a modernized and somewhat better PS4 (...PS4.25?), and the ceiling as 'what if the PS4 Pro's CPU didn't suck' (ie, a hypothetical PS4.5).
Click to expand...

People are forgetting the T239 is based on ampere so if there was a pro model utilizing the T239 then wouldn't that make game development more difficult between the switch and the cancelled "pro" model?

Maxwell -> Pascal -> Turing -> Ampere

There's massive architecture differences between ampere and maxwell that game compatibility would splinter the fan base where we could see pro model only games or games that won't take advantage of the "pro" specs because it needs to be played on the switch. It just wouldn't make sense. What does make sense as a whole is there could had been a revision or another die shrink of Maxwell based Mariko SOC to maybe 8nm but why waste silicon if Nintendo could had released a mariko that hits higher clocks speeds and 2 extra gb of ram? If they were using the T239 for a pro console how would backwards combability work?

This is why I till believe despite the bad news a few pages back...the T239 NuSwitch is in the works.
 
0
The "Nintendo Switch (OLED Model)" was a sort of baffling product, from its name to its positioning to its timing. I definitely think it makes sense that it was sort of a repurposed Pro without the new SoC. I basically said as such in this thread a few days ago:

Gay Bowser said:
I think it's entirely possible that there was an an earlier version of this new Switch that would have been out by now and maybe been marketed more like a "Pro" or mid-cycle upgrade that was scrapped either due to pandemic-related component chaos or due to the Switch's momentum.
Click to expand...

This doesn't really have anything to do with the new hardware we're expecting now, which is the generational successor to the Switch. So I don't really understand the dooming.
 
iNess said:
How good will it be that Ethics came with Christmas?

Until now Nintendo has kept something called STANDARD, thus maintaining the capabilities of its system, even though there are two versions of its SoC.

This STANDARD has allowed developers to reach a wider audience. By creating a new Standard, migration will be promoted, Nintendo is not only power in its processor, the main thing is its controller and the Audio and Video broadcast medium.

Many have no idea what Nintendo is next for, but if there are any signs of delivering new gameplay for Tears of the Kingdom with a new controller, as I said before at least one new controller should be coming soon.

In previous years we have had Nintendo Switch Lite/Oled and other peripherals accompanied by games like Nintendo Labo, Pokémon Let Go, Ring Fit, Mario Kart Live, but this 2022 nothing, Is it the calm before the storm?
Click to expand...
cover3.jpg
 
So I finally watched the video:
  • They think that Switch 2 is coming
  • They say that (speaking with developers) a Pro was planned
  • They think that the Switch 2 is not coming in 2023, Nintendo isn’t interested in Ray tracing blabla, Nintendo is nervous, problems with the name…
  • “We just don’t know yet what’s going to happen”
I just can’t see anything concrete about Switch 2 NOT coming in 2023, they’re just speculating.

Just wait until mid february.
 
Just so we are clear, the Nvidia hacked information is still on, still on track. No one is putting that into question. It’s the other thing people are questioning the validity of.
 
iNess said:
How good will it be that Ethics came with Christmas?

Until now Nintendo has kept something called STANDARD, thus maintaining the capabilities of its system, even though there are two versions of its SoC.

This STANDARD has allowed developers to reach a wider audience. By creating a new Standard, migration will be promoted, Nintendo is not only power in its processor, the main thing is its controller and the Audio and Video broadcast medium.

Many have no idea what Nintendo is next for, but if there are any signs of delivering new gameplay for Tears of the Kingdom with a new controller, as I said before at least one new controller should be coming soon.

In previous years we have had Nintendo Switch Lite/Oled and other peripherals accompanied by games like Nintendo Labo, Pokémon Let Go, Ring Fit, Mario Kart Live, but this 2022 nothing, Is it the calm before the storm?
Click to expand...
I love it when Ethics come with Christmas tbh.
 
Honest question here, what big releases can Nintendo put out over the next 18-24 months if there is no Switch 2 in that time without compromising the successor?

If they release Zelda (confirmed) and another 3D Mario on OG Switch then it will then mean there won’t be 2 of their biggest hitters ready for Switch 2 for several years.

Where does Prime 4 fit into all this? Seems like the perfect candidate for new hardware as much as anything.

From a game scheduling point of view 2023 makes the most sense to me but the signs aren’t good.
 
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YolkFolk said:
Honest question here, what big releases can Nintendo put out over the next 18-24 months if there is no Switch 2 in that time without compromising the successor?

If they release Zelda (confirmed) and another 3D Mario on OG Switch then it will then mean there won’t be 2 of their biggest hitters ready for Switch 2 for several years.

Where does Prime 4 fit into all this? Seems like the perfect candidate for new hardware as much as anything.
Click to expand...
My cope is that they have another Zelda game in development.
 
0
YolkFolk said:
Honest question here, what big releases can Nintendo put out over the next 18-24 months if there is no Switch 2 in that time without compromising the successor?

If they release Zelda (confirmed) and another 3D Mario on OG Switch then it will then mean there won’t be 2 of their biggest hitters ready for Switch 2 for several years.

Where does Prime 4 fit into all this? Seems like the perfect candidate for new hardware as much as anything.
Click to expand...
Mario Kart could very well be ready sometime in early 2024 but yeah aside from that I don't know.
 
YolkFolk said:
Honest question here, what big releases can Nintendo put out over the next 18-24 months if there is no Switch 2 in that time without compromising the successor?

If they release Zelda (confirmed) and another 3D Mario on OG Switch then it will then mean there won’t be 2 of their biggest hitters ready for Switch 2 for several years.

Where does Prime 4 fit into all this? Seems like the perfect candidate for new hardware as much as anything.
Click to expand...
One of the main reasons I still think it's coming in May.
 
Maxrunner said:
I sure wish Nintendo good luck if they think they can sustain momentum till next year with the current machine. It will be a massacre in the dedicated media.
Click to expand...
This has been said every year since 2020, and yet this year we had their two biggest game launches of all time domestically and/or worldwide in Splatoon and Pokemon. Clearly general audiences still aren't too bothered by the lacking power of the current Switch.
 
YolkFolk said:
Honest question here, what big releases can Nintendo put out over the next 18-24 months if there is no Switch 2 in that time without compromising the successor?

If they release Zelda (confirmed) and another 3D Mario on OG Switch then it will then mean there won’t be 2 of their biggest hitters ready for Switch 2 for several years.

Where does Prime 4 fit into all this? Seems like the perfect candidate for new hardware as much as anything.
Click to expand...
Development cycle is certainly against them. I mean there could be another "lesser" Mario in 2023 in the sense of a 2D game to coincide with the Movie release. Then a 3D would launch whenever Switch 2 comes. Zelda though is an issue. If Zelda launches, they have a big gap unless they do a quick cashin style zelda

Game sales and console sales are not tied to each other. The current base can eagerly eat up releases and at the same time hardware sales decline in meaningful amounts. if Nintendo is serious about trying to keep Switch relevant even after a new hardware release, then it's on Nintendo to get the new Hardware out while supporting Switch before Switch has its wheels fall off.

If Switch sales crash and they think they can juggle Switch and Switch 2 at the same time in the end it going to be Switch 2 owners who suffer. Nintendo has great trouble juggling multiple pieces of hardware at once.
 
Skittzo said:
One of the main reasons I still think it's coming in May.
Click to expand...

Updated my post, but yeah, 2023 makes the most sense for a new console from a game scheduling point of view. Like I said, if Nintendo release another round of big hitters on OG Switch, the next entries will be 3-5 years off. You just hope that if there is no new console next year, that the final years of Switch aren’t like the wastelands of Gamecube, Wii and Wii U, where they were left to die from a software standpoint while we all waited for the successor.
 
Gobias-Ind said:
I think any 2024 speculation is solely based on the notion that "it's about time"
Click to expand...

That, and development cycles too. I'm of the belief that Nintendo's software release plan is by far the best indication one can have regarding new hardware.
By December 2023, they would have squeezed all the juice they can from Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 3 expansion would have released, Zelda will still be fresh in people's mind and will probably be on the line a sizeable DLC, and a new 3D and 2D Mario will feel overdue. Additionally, Metroid Prime 4 could be an ideal cross generation title, as I expect the new 3D Mario to be exclusive to the new machine.
From that perspective, it feels that many lights are green for 2024 release of Drake. 2025 works as well, but in that scenario, it will mean that Nintendo will accept to have a very barren 2024 in terms of new software. Not exactly the best for a smooth transition.
 
karmitt said:
I said I was out but this is too weird to drop from just yet. Feeling flummoxed

Just some thoughts rolling about my head:
  • Bloomberg reported in 2021 that 11+ developers had 4K kits and titles targeting late 2022 and early 2023.
  • Mochizuki added the commentary that developers would likely lose trust in Nintendo if they didn't follow through with a device (paraphrased, can’t find source)
  • when everybody got into a tizzy around July/August for the new Switch announcement coming, and Mochizuki chimed in with the vague but likely deliberate "2 early." We never got to the bottom of the statement, but it felt almost certain that we were all just expecting an announcement too early - not that something wasn’t happening.
It still feels like something has to be coming, otherwise it’d be a real shit show for Nintendo behind the scenes.
Click to expand...
I'm fairly confident "2 early" meant 2 things. It was too early for an announcement at that time, but that Switch 2 would come out earlier than expected (2023). Feel free to roast me.
 
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