- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nobody knows for sure. Estimations done on Orin suggest no but Orin is not the same GPU as Drake.Will 12SM even be possible on 8NM in portable mode? (460MHZ 1.4TFLOPS)
Nobody knows for sure. Estimations done on Orin suggest no but Orin is not the same GPU as Drake.Will 12SM even be possible on 8NM in portable mode? (460MHZ 1.4TFLOPS)
the 6800U is massive and that fits in a switch sized systemI at least think that clock speed is more than doable. Just hard to imagine if 8nm Samsung can fit in a switch case. Maybe it can. Or a bit larger.
Definitely pushing it imo.Will 12SM even be possible on 8NM in portable mode? (460MHZ 1.4TFLOPS)
Again, it depends on the node and the CPU clock speed. A smaller node would also reduce CPU draw. We have pretty decent power draw numbers of A78 on 8nm from power tests on phones, so we can guess half a watt per core at the 1.5GHz range.Assuming the clock speed profiles from post #31,559 are true... I feel pretty confident in saying that the power parameters of 4.2 W, 9.3 W and 12.0 W pertain to the GPU clock speeds alone (660Mhz, 1.125GHz, and 1.38 GHz). How much would the total power draw be
Yeah that's what I'm thinking. If we have no official announcement by the end of February and no new rumblings I'd think H1 2023 is probably off the table.
I have since given up on Zelda. Everyone knows that by now.So what are we thinking? Something like “if we don’t hear anything, official or otherwise, by the February direct, it’s not out by Zelda” or something? I know nothing has changed but I’m just trying to work out what we’re thinking in terms of timelines/announcement “deadlines”
This doesn’t load but I do hope it’s accounting for the substrate as well. Otherwise it’s missing a lot of the info.the 6800U is massive and that fits in a switch sized system
that's because you're a cowardI have since given up on Zelda. Everyone knows that by now.
weirdThis doesn’t load but I do hope it’s accounting for the substrate as well. Otherwise it’s missing a lot of the info.
With the speculated specifications, the chip should occupy about 7B transistors at least.
oh shit why?I have since given up on Zelda. Everyone knows that by now.
Definitely possible if Nintendo's willing to use a smaller and denser motherboard (e.g. Jetson AGX Orin).Just hard to imagine if 8nm Samsung can fit in a switch case. Maybe it can. Or a bit larger.
If Nintendo does announce a new Switch, they won't reveal the name right away. They will just call it "The Sequel to the Nintendo Switch".
oh shit why?
Because I’m aoh shit why?
coward
I at least think that clock speed is more than doable. Just hard to imagine if 8nm Samsung can fit in a switch case. Maybe it can. Or a bit larger.Will 12SM even be possible on 8NM in portable mode? (460MHZ 1.4TFLOPS)
how big is the die on 6800Uthe 6800U is massive and that fits in a switch sized system
Right. I do think the node matters a lot. Because it does help determine power draw and handheld battery life, which will affect clock speed. And if Nintendo wants to fit a similar power profile and battery as v1 Switch, I have some doubt that 8nm can match that. I said confident because given the information we have from those profiles that were tested on a windows NVN2 apparently, it seems to imply that it's GPU alone power draw, and those powers from 8nm Samsung sound about right I guess.Again, it depends on the node and the CPU clock speed. A smaller node would also reduce CPU draw. We have pretty decent power draw numbers of A78 on 8nm from power tests on phones, so we can guess half a watt per core at the 1.5GHz range.
The wattage numbers are interesting but they aren't definitive at all. I realize that if your background is on the hardware side more than the software side that it can seem pretty damn suggestive, but I cannot emphasize enough that their are lots of possible interpretations of those numbers. That's not me being pessimistic, that's me saying that there are missing puzzle pieces.
DLSS integration with NVN2 began before DLSS was released. The wattage number could be for an A100 in the testing farm. Or for a clocked down Xavier used for development. Or the power draw for just the tensor cores. Or the estimated power draw for Drake, which isn't necessarily reflective of Nintendo's final choices for the hardware. Or it could all be right on the money!
It's totally reasonable to speculate from - or even hope for - those clocks and power draw numbers. But to say confidently that node doesn't matter because we know the power draw for the GPU is, I think, overconfident.
I believe other examples of devices that does this, requires a reboot to do it. Which is a dealbreaker for Switch. So not very realistic, unless they engineered a seamless solution for it.
So I've been thinking back to Emily's "Nintendo's been sitting on quite a few games" remark from a while back. When does Nintendo usually hold back games/content? For the launch of new hardware, whether it's a revision, a peripheral, or a successor. Even during the Switch era, there were multiple "slower first halves" (or entire years in the case of the Wii U) that picked up in the second half of the year once new hardware was on its way. SM Odyssey was held back for a holiday 2017 launch and it seems likely to me that less critical content was cut for later games/versions (battle mode for MK8) or pushed into a sequel on Switch (Splatoon 2). Additionally, I believe Chris Dring, who reports on UK games sales, has stated that next year seems to be pretty quiet after Zelda according to his sources.
My point regarding all the above is that all this talk of held back games reminds a lot of the Switch launch and even its revisions. I think it's in Nintendo's best interests to get this thing out earlier rather than later, unless third parties don't have any game ready for 2023. Better to start building that install base ASAP an keep sales momentum high. I mean if this thing is 8nm, then what does Nintendo gain from releasing it holiday 23 or later? That would be such a double whammy- Samsung 8nm AND another further 6 month delay. What would Nintendo be waiting for? What did we do to deserve this?
Switch had a big batch of titles partially because Nintendo moved Wii U exclusives over. The current reserving of games is at least partially because of a Nintendo changing how they run their QA departmentSo I've been thinking back to Emily's "Nintendo's been sitting on quite a few games" remark from a while back. When does Nintendo usually hold back games/content? For the launch of new hardware, whether it's a revision, a peripheral, or a successor. Even during the Switch era, there were multiple "slower first halves" (or entire years in the case of the Wii U) that picked up in the second half of the year once new hardware was on its way. SM Odyssey was held back for a holiday 2017 launch and it seems likely to me that less critical content was cut for later games/versions (battle mode for MK8) or pushed into a sequel on Switch (Splatoon 2). Additionally, I believe Chris Dring, who reports on UK games sales, has stated that next year seems to be pretty quiet after Zelda according to his sources.
My point regarding all the above is that all this talk of held back games reminds a lot of the Switch launch and even its revisions.
If Nintendo does announce a new Switch, they won't reveal the name right away. They will just call it "The Sequel to the Nintendo Switch".
It's also too quiet for Zelda information in general. If it wasn't coming out around the same time Totk, I think we would have gotten way more information by now. But not exactly a blow out.Zelda comes out in ~5 months and it's too quiet imo
node is pretty irrelevant if it hits the performance targets they wantI've said late 2023 or 2024 for the longest time and I stand by that; I also believe that 8nm Samsung would be quite outdated by that time, and that choice would resemble the weird 20nm choice from 2017. I personally believe that Nintendo will use a more recent node.
Had a more powerful console released in 2021-22, like many here thought it would, then 8nm would have been the most logical choice. Not for a console releasing 2 years after, in my opinion.
It's quiet right now because leaks don't happen in November/December when the entire supply chain is crazy busy.Zelda comes out in ~5 months and it's too quiet imo
It's quiet right now because leaks don't happen in November/December when the entire supply chain is crazy busy.
I'd give it until mid January until we could maybe start hearing more rumblings. Before then it's much harder to get information from contacts.
Is easy to pass these type of paywalls if yo know a few of tech.Bloomberg’s 2021 reporting on the “4K Switch” also mentioned that they were preparing a slate of new games to release with it. Can’t dig up the statement because of the paywall but I recall the wording. I didn’t think 2021’s line up was anything to write home about vs previous years, so it’s always made me wonder if there’s a good chunk of other content they’re holding off on. The statement could have also been around third party planning as well tho
Just put the link on the archive websiteIs easy to pass these type of paywalls if yo know a few of tech.
Or in the wayback machineJust put the link on the archive website
What choices did/does Nintendo have?I've said late 2023 or 2024 for the longest time and I stand by that; I also believe that 8nm Samsung would be quite outdated by that time, and that choice would resemble the weird 20nm choice from 2017. I personally believe that Nintendo will use a more recent node.
Had a more powerful console released in 2021-22, like many here thought it would, then 8nm would have been the most logical choice. Not for a console releasing 2 years after, in my opinion.
will this wind up my most well-aged post? vote now on your phonesI don't think anyone here expects anything to come of those leaked profiles
at least, I hope not...
Yeah I think this is a good analysis. To give a percentage on each case IMO I'd say 90% 4, ,6% 1, 3% 2 and 1% 1.Nvidia gets good deals on process nodes by having multiple products on the same node. Right now, Nvidia manufactures chips on three nodes - TSMC 7nm (datacenter ampere), Samsung 8nm (desktop Ampere), TSMC 5nm (Ada). Nvidia has no major new product lines to manufacture. It would be very strange to have a product not on one of those three nodes, and would drive up costs.
20nm wasn't a weird choice by Nintendo, it was Nvidia building an integrated SOC out of their mature GPU tech. Kepler was on 28nm, so the K1 was on 28nm.
Hardware testing with Nvidia GPUs by Thraktor, Orin documentation, and power tests by third parties all suggest an 8W minimum for Drake's GPU at 620+Mhz. The listed power ranges are a 50% reduction in power.
Drake has a new power saving technology called FLCG. However, FLCG is also in Ada chips according to internal documentation. Nvidia reports a 50% reduction in power usage for Ada at the same performance level as Ampere, with both FLCG and the node shrink together. Early power tests with 4090 suggest that power reduction is actually optimistic.
Either
1) Has happened before, when Nvidia went with 20nm for the TX1, but it's worth noting they planned on moving Maxwell over to it, and were very unhappy with the yields and didn't make the move. 2) Is insane, but I've theorized it was possible myself. 3) I simply do not believe. 4) Seems likely
- Nvidia and Nintendo are spending extra money to be on a process node with no other shared products, or...
- They're on the same node as Lovelace, releasing after Lovelace, but still not running Lovelace ,or...
- Drake has power saving magic that is not on any other device in the Nvidia product line, including their top of the line cards, but is so simple that it's still the same Ampere architecture, or...
- The wattage numbers in the test don't mean what we think they mean.
other offerings? yesIn 2023 there are better offerings from other competitors (Mediatek, AMD) but backwards compatibility is going to better with an Nvidia solution.
"And the Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology speculation thread voted so hard that the website caught on fire and burned down"will this wind up my most well-aged post? vote now on your phones
Nintendo made a deal with Nvidia to use the TX1 back in 2014, before the chip was ever released.Nvidia purchased too many 20nm wafer starts from TSMC so they gave Nintendo a deal on the Tegra X1.
Well if they go with 8nm, that means they would have to go for the drastic design departure for a die shrink since it's a dead end node, right? What would a theoretical Drake lite be on? Maybe it'd be so good that they actually release a mid-gen refresh this time, so we get both the lite and "new" models? Would it be on 4N or Samsung 5nm?Nvidia gets good deals on process nodes by having multiple products on the same node. Right now, Nvidia manufactures chips on three nodes - TSMC 7nm (datacenter ampere), Samsung 8nm (desktop Ampere), TSMC 5nm (Ada). Nvidia has no major new product lines to manufacture. It would be very strange to have a product not on one of those three nodes, and would drive up costs.
20nm wasn't a weird choice by Nintendo, it was Nvidia building an integrated SOC out of their mature GPU tech. Kepler was on 28nm, so the K1 was on 28nm.
Hardware testing with Nvidia GPUs by Thraktor, Orin documentation, and power tests by third parties all suggest an 8W minimum for Drake's GPU at 620+Mhz. The listed power ranges are a 50% reduction in power.
Drake has a new power saving technology called FLCG. However, FLCG is also in Ada chips according to internal documentation. Nvidia reports a 50% reduction in power usage for Ada at the same performance level as Ampere, with both FLCG and the node shrink together. Early power tests with 4090 suggest that power reduction is actually optimistic.
Either
1) Has happened before, when Nvidia went with 20nm for the TX1, but it's worth noting they planned on moving Maxwell over to it, and were very unhappy with the yields and didn't make the move. 2) Is insane, but I've theorized it was possible myself. 3) I simply do not believe. 4) Seems likely
- Nvidia and Nintendo are spending extra money to be on a process node with no other shared products, or...
- They're on the same node as Lovelace, releasing after Lovelace, but still not running Lovelace ,or...
- Drake has power saving magic that is not on any other device in the Nvidia product line, including their top of the line cards, but is so simple that it's still the same Ampere architecture, or...
- The wattage numbers in the test don't mean what we think they mean.
I've said late 2023 or 2024 for the longest time and I stand by that; I also believe that 8nm Samsung would be quite outdated by that time, and that choice would resemble the weird 20nm choice from 2017. I personally believe that Nintendo will use a more recent node.
Had a more powerful console released in 2021-22, like many here thought it would, then 8nm would have been the most logical choice. Not for a console releasing 2 years after, in my opinion.
At least the past 2 times (Switch and Drake), it seems like any deficiencies will not be because of "Nintendo gonna Nintendo", like with the Wii U or 3DS. If Drake ends up on 8nm (which it most likely will), it will have made sense because Orin is on that node and is also difficult to move away from or shrink. Same with the X1; Nintendo and Nvidia went with the best option they had at the time. But this time, DLSS is here to save the day and will be the difference maker. Do I have the gist of it?
For a successor, there are lots of options that are better than the Tegra X1+ right now. Unlikely to beat the T239 but definitely better than what Nintendo is currently using.other offerings? yes
better? no.
the problem is that you have to answer why they wouldn't go back to Nvidia. the only logical reason is because Nintendo wants to go off-the-shelf again and Nvidia doesn't have anything that suitsFor a successor, there are lots of options that are better than the Tegra X1+ right now. Unlikely to beat the T239 but definitely better than what Nintendo is currently using.
5. Getting multiple components from Samsung, would give them enough leeway to negotiate better prices from them (screen, storage, ram, soc?). So 1. woudnt be so expensive anyway.Nvidia gets good deals on process nodes by having multiple products on the same node. Right now, Nvidia manufactures chips on three nodes - TSMC 7nm (datacenter ampere), Samsung 8nm (desktop Ampere), TSMC 5nm (Ada). Nvidia has no major new product lines to manufacture. It would be very strange to have a product not on one of those three nodes, and would drive up costs.
20nm wasn't a weird choice by Nintendo, it was Nvidia building an integrated SOC out of their mature GPU tech. Kepler was on 28nm, so the K1 was on 28nm.
Hardware testing with Nvidia GPUs by Thraktor, Orin documentation, and power tests by third parties all suggest an 8W minimum for Drake's GPU at 620+Mhz. The listed power ranges are a 50% reduction in power.
Drake has a new power saving technology called FLCG. However, FLCG is also in Ada chips according to internal documentation. Nvidia reports a 50% reduction in power usage for Ada at the same performance level as Ampere, with both FLCG and the node shrink together. Early power tests with 4090 suggest that power reduction is actually optimistic.
Either
1) Has happened before, when Nvidia went with 20nm for the TX1, but it's worth noting they planned on moving Maxwell over to it, and were very unhappy with the yields and didn't make the move. 2) Is insane, but I've theorized it was possible myself. 3) I simply do not believe. 4) Seems likely
- Nvidia and Nintendo are spending extra money to be on a process node with no other shared products, or...
- They're on the same node as Lovelace, releasing after Lovelace, but still not running Lovelace ,or...
- Drake has power saving magic that is not on any other device in the Nvidia product line, including their top of the line cards, but is so simple that it's still the same Ampere architecture, or...
- The wattage numbers in the test don't mean what we think they mean.
When we see proper Tears of the Kingdom gameplay it will be running on Drake imo. We were never going to see anything about Zelda or Drake until late January because in part they still want to sell people the current Switch, Lite and OLED models as much as possible in the run up to Christmas.Zelda comes out in ~5 months and it's too quiet imo
Nintendo Direct
Hell yeahJanuary
Wouldn't it make sense for nintendo to base performance targets and battery life on the node first? If Nintendo goes 8nm, then its something they went with all along, and most likely as a cost saving measure if anything.node is pretty irrelevant if it hits the performance targets they want
Nintendo would have a list of targets, Nvidia does their best to meet them. if Nvidia can do it on 8nm, then 8nm it is. all of this is simulated before being committed to silicon so if it wasn't possible on 8nm, Nvidia could tell them early and Nintendo would either have to make concession for the sake of a cheap chip or make the jump to a better node to hit their targetsWouldn't it make sense for nintendo to base performance targets and battery life on the node first? If Nintendo goes 8nm, then its something they went with all along, and most likely as a cost saving measure if anything.