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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Deleted member 887
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Development times are getting longer, pushing some AAA into being as long as a console generation. Some games coming out now started dev well before the current gen.
Development is getting more expensive, requiring AAA games to make more sales to be profitable, which in turn requires a larger install base, while PS5/XBS uptake has been slowed by supply problems and inflation.
Series S has a GPU that is arguably less powerful than the Xbox One, but MS requires simultaneous release, meaning many games already have to build a cut down version.
The mid-gen refresh extended the lifetime of the previous gen, exactly as it was supposed to, and at launch, the new consoles we're competing against predecessors that were only 4 years old
Pandemic actually saw in uptick in new gamers and casual gamers buying consoles, but supply problems pushed them to last gen consoles. They're buying games like they're in the second year of a consoles life, despite owning decade old hardware, making them unusually attractive to cater to.
Asset reusing/engine reusing sequels help squeeze additional money out of the OG games development, while creating games that often can run on previous gen hardware without compromise.
Engine consolidation across the industry makes multiplat/cross-gen development easier than ever, and if you're going to offer a version with a bunch of sliders that let's it run on mid-range PCs why not pop out a last-gen version?
All of these forces conspire to extend the cross-gen period. Next year has more current-gen exclusives announced than current exist, so we may be hitting the end of it. But AAA devs are gonna AAA, and all the envelope pushing madness that brings, until the current AAA model breaks under its own weight, there is no hardware big enough. But AA and many indies are off that treadmill and will likely be able to make cross-gen games for a long time, with the only limitation being publisher and platform owner willingness to dedicate resources to support those platforms.
The sad thing is we haven't seen or heard much about Fire Emblem Engage...it's almost like nintendo isn't pushing the game...
From what I can tell that is being released for 2023 is the following:
Fire Emblem Engage Jan 20, 2023
Bayonetta Origins March 17th, 2023
Zelda May 6th 2023
Pikmin 4 expected sometime in 2023....
plus a few indie games....hardly any switch games for the first half of the year. It's actually quite sad when you think about it. Unless 3rd party developers have officially began development for the NuSwitch...2023 is going to be a lack luster year for the switch.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Mmm, no.
D
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Like, The Series S GPU is actually a generational leap from the Xbox One X GPU, but it's clocked lower and has some compromises, which could put it under it depending on circumstances, while do better in others. However, regardless, the Series S is absolutely stronger than the original Xbox One GPU. No questions about it. I'm assuming oldpuck probably was thinking Xbox One X, rather than the base Xbox One.
Yea, I know. Buts it’s not ideal for gaming.
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Deleted member 887
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I don't play Fire Emblem but I see drops and info all the time? Maybe I'm just in places where folks love Fire Emblem
Then Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe in February
You forgot Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe. ~1 game a month is pretty much right on pace for Nintendo, and one of them is Fire Emblem and the other is Zelda. Nintendo doesn't need anything else in the first half.
In terms of third party and indies Octopath Traveller 2, Fatal Frame, Story of Seasons, Blanc are all in the first half of the year.
Announced games for 2023 without release dates include: Silksong, Oxenfree II, Outer Wilds, Master Detective Archives Raincode, Eiyuden Chronicle, Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection, and Disney Illusion.
Nintendo has got a complete Advance Wars to slide in whenever they want, waves of MK8DX DLC, and at least one Persona coming next year.
This is a pretty normal year for Nintendo. If the February/March direct doesn't fill out the calendar, then maybe something weird is going on, but everyone is going to get out of Zelda's way on the platform.
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Deleted member 887
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I did indeed mean the One X.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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H1 is shaping up pretty OK for Nintendo BUT the fact we had no Zelda trailer at a Game Awards where it won, the fact the only thing announced was a development partner and not a first party effort, and the lack of 3rd party involvement in the Switch outside of indies, indicates to me that we really are walking blindly into the release period for the next console. 3rd party ports, new trailers for games coming soon, there's plenty for them to show and they chose not to show it at the Game Awards.
They're waiting for the reveal of the next device early next year.
I'm almost certain the reason for the dim looking year is because they're holding back for the reveal and subsequent game reveal blowout. They told development partners this device will come out, and come out soon. It's coming out.
They're waiting for the reveal of the next device early next year.
I'm almost certain the reason for the dim looking year is because they're holding back for the reveal and subsequent game reveal blowout. They told development partners this device will come out, and come out soon. It's coming out.
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It’s the easiest explanation to me. I’m thinking something mid or early Jan at this point.
Really hope all the secrecy and waiting actually feels warranted. Kind of expecting to be pretty impressed at this stage
Nintendo's 2023 looks brilliant. At this point, we actually have more to look forward to than we did for several of the previous years. Considering they probably have more to announce, they will be fine in 2023, new console or not. And if they sell more than 15 millions of the old consoles, along with truckloads of games, then it'll be a success for them. This is absolutely not a Wii to Wii U situation.
I for one would gladly welcome a new console in 2024 though.
I for one would gladly welcome a new console in 2024 though.
Truno
Koopa
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PIKMIN 4
9-Volt
Adept
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Switch does not have "big" releases first half of next year but in terms of "niche" releases, there are insane amount of them. A taste of things to come:
Bomberman R2
Megaman Battle Network Collection
Tales of Symphonia
Digimon World Next Order
Ateiler Ryza 3
Marvel's Midnight Suns
Risen
DNF Duel
GrimGrimoire Once More
Spongebob Cosmic Shake
LoH Trails to Azure
Fatal Frame 4
AEW Fight Forever
Theatrhythm Final Bar Line
Infinity Strash Adventures of Dai
Suikoden 1&2
Sega has nothing, Ubisoft has nothing, all Capcom has is a rom dump package and KoTec has nothing but Ryza 3. But this is a lineup no other 6 year old Nintendo platform got before. Even DS in 2010 was lackluster as hell. We do need a successor asap, don't get me wrong, but Switch sure as hell fine without one.
Dekuman
Kremling
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I think 3rd parties are working on the succ games now. I'm just kind of sad we don't know when this thing is coming
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
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there's always Tetris.
9-Volt
Adept
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Few ports maybe. Diablo 4, Street Fighter 6, Space Marine II, Injustice 3. I don't expect too many Drake exclusive games in its first year.
Many big Switch releases should still be for base Switch. Square will have SaGa Emerald Beyond and Nier Replicant, Sega should have Soul Hackers late port and Namco should bring this long rumored brand new Digimon game and a late port of One Piece Odyssey.
until they ray trace that too
someone's hopeful. honestly, this close to Drake, I doubt Bamco is gonna greenlight anything for switch. it's either day and date with the other versions or switch version ain't happening
9-Volt
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Someone on reddit said Namco leaked a Switch version with a release date of TBA on press release kits for OP Odyssey. Wasn't able to confirm this, still looking for more confirmation. I believe @Ojoloco heard the same?
Anyway, this is done by ILCA, a studio who knows their way around Switch. Namco would definitely go for base Switch even for "miracle ports" as the sales potential for anime games like this is still huge. Even for a compromised version.
KeijiKG
Moblin
I kneel.
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2022 was optimistic.
2023 seems realistic.
2024 on has no footing whatsoever in the context of this thread.
And also, 2023’s current lineup really isn’t that impressive. That’s not to say it won’t change; Nintendo is pretty successful at squeezing announcement to release time games. However, it’s disingenuous to say the current lineup is brilliant. It’s niche beyond TotK at best, and the competition hasn’t been this compelling in years.
2023 seems realistic.
2024 on has no footing whatsoever in the context of this thread.
And also, 2023’s current lineup really isn’t that impressive. That’s not to say it won’t change; Nintendo is pretty successful at squeezing announcement to release time games. However, it’s disingenuous to say the current lineup is brilliant. It’s niche beyond TotK at best, and the competition hasn’t been this compelling in years.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Hey can we slow it down with all the news please? I’m feeling overwhelmed and having trouble keeping up. Ever since March we’ve been feasting and it’s only ramped up to the current insanity. I don’t want to see any updates on Drake until next year. If we do, I might not be able to catch my breath.
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Deleted member 887
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Eh, like I said, this year's lineup we knew way in advance of what we usually know, which made it look better. In terms of what we do know it's pretty par. Looking at the till May Nintendo Published Switch releases ...
2023: Fire Emblem, Kirby, Zelda, Bayonetta Prequel
2022: Switch Sports, Kirby, Triangle Strategy, Arceus
2021: Buddy Mission Bond, Bravely Default II, Pokemon Snap
2020: Animal Crossing, Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition
2019: Box Boy, Labo, Yoshi
2018: Labo, Labo, Kirby
That... looks pretty great relatively speaking. If you pull the Squeenix games that Nintendo published from the list, this year looks maybe the biggest yet of the Switch Era? 4 Nintendo games that are for me is about the most i could ever want. I just need something to go along with Pikmin in H2 and I'll be good.
ILCA isn't a slam dunk though. where's Idolmaster or Ace Comabt 7? and there's still the question of a press release having a typo on it or not. we've seen similar mistakes in the past
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
I've heard many times the biggest issue isn't so much the GPU tflops, but the abysmal bandwidth. One X has 50% more than the series S for one.. But devs do say it's RAM and bandwidth starved vs the Series S
Is GCN X bone One X to to Series S translate to 50% more performance per flop from the newer architecture? Something tells me it isn't.
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Deleted member 887
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Yeah, Series S is absolutely bandwidth starved. On the other hand, it's CPU runs circles around the One X. The question is what can you optimize for. There are plenty of games that can run 60fps on Series S that can't do it on One X, but it's not the GPU at all
Smash Kirby
Bob-omb
So, I am going with the worst-case scenario of an 8nm TX1, given the general thought process of these recent years.
Though to be serious at the least I could see the next Switch having the docked clocks while in handheld mode. Though if there is improved hardware akin to what was shown in the Linux leak, I would hope that the updated Switch will at least be able to run BOTW and other games that had issues with holding framerates with locked limits that the games have.
Though to be serious at the least I could see the next Switch having the docked clocks while in handheld mode. Though if there is improved hardware akin to what was shown in the Linux leak, I would hope that the updated Switch will at least be able to run BOTW and other games that had issues with holding framerates with locked limits that the games have.
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Deleted member 887
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I see where you’re going with this, but it’s pretty unlikely. To get clocks that high in handheld mode, you’d want something on a decently advanced node, but very small GPU wise. There isn’t anything like that on the market, so it would have to be custom and we have a lot of data on a custom chip for Nintendo but it’s the opposite direction. Giant GPU at slower clocks.
Yeah, even just overclocking your switch can do that for many games so I have to expect that any new hardware will be able to.
That's very unrealistic. The A57 isn't designed for 8nm, neither is Maxwell. Nvidia has to redesign those arches for the node, which is an added cost when you already have IP made on it. Why spend more money to do something worse?
Negativity is only cool during the Winter.
KeijiKG
Moblin
Well obviously, Christmas is such a financial drain.
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Not really. SIE and MS were in such a rush to get a UE5-ready console to market (as their hardware releases have conspicuously coincided with new versions of Unreal Engine for the past 3 hardware cycles) that some of the most important tech advances in GPUs (ray tracing hardware acceleration, hardware acceleration for algorithmic frame drawing assistance tools like DLSS, etc.) weren't yet available, which would have been absolute game-changers at the thermal profile SIE and MS operate in; seriously, DLSS and something like RT cores in PS5 or XBSX would make for some INSANE gains in AV for games. Instead, developers got hardware that, while an improvement over the prior hardware cycle, allowed them to really easily scale games to prior hardware with ease and far more minimal sacrifice to AV quality, as the primary differentiator is native 4K (which is strenuous on a GPU), frame rate and loading times. Scaling a 4K game back to 1080p is just a hell of a lot easier and mostly allows a game to be incredibly playable without the same level of tinkering you'd usually expect.
Combined with semi-conductor shortages that have kept install bases lower than they have been in the past which necessitated an expansion of addressable consumers, it just worked out that cross-gen became highly relevant due to bad timing.
This is especially true in Japan, where PS5 software sales have been absolutely in the shitter. Combined with new Nintendo hardware approaching, keeping the spec floor of their games low was just a good all-around decision, which is why Japanese publishers have more cross-gen games coming as far out as 2024.
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Nintendo has at the very least 3 tent pole games scheduled for 2023, one of which is arguably their biggest game in 6 years. Sounds like a fantastic lineup to me, unless we imagine that none of their 2023 direct will announce games for 2023.
It's fine to want a new console in 2023; but Nintendo certainly isn't acting as if they were actively holding games for a new generation.
It's fine to want a new console in 2023; but Nintendo certainly isn't acting as if they were actively holding games for a new generation.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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3? I only see TOTK, I’m not sure what other titles you are referring to as “tentpole”
Fire Emblem isn't a tent pole games anymore? It certainly was in 2019, and Nintendo littering smash with FE characters and making those boring musou spin offs shows how important this IP is to them.
So is Pikmin 4, a game which the community has been waiting for more than half a decade; and a game big enough for Nintendo to care about releasing the previous episode on Switch. An I don't even like Pikmin.
Both were treated as big announcements by Nintendo. They are not on the caliber of Animal Crossing, or Smash, but neither of those games had a game of equivalent importance released during their respective calendar year.
And once again, we're just in December; it's not a stretch to imagine that Nintendo has at least 2 games of equivalent caliber to announce in 2023. Metroid 4 could be one of them.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
True.
Random note. Dunno why but I've mixed you up with My Tulpa sometimes. You guys are obviously both very different. I know he was/is very pro "Switch Pro." My apologies a few weeks ago.
Yes, BN leaks the port time ago.
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And two years into the current gen, other companies aren't doing either. Sony's latest blockbuster is still on PS4.
Game releases aren't relevant to determining hardware releases anymore. It would not be wise of Nintendo to continue to think the same
Smash Kirby
Bob-omb
The way some people are Doom posting here you'd think that is what Nintendo is going to do. I'm personally rooting for a new and more powerful Switch.
Not to mention shrinking a chip from a TSMC process to a Samsung process.
9-Volt
Adept
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It's the problem anyway, they're not holding games for the powerful iteration so they let us suffer the crappy performances of Pokémon and Bayonetta 3. I mean they knew how Pokémon performed yet still greenlit the launch. Best explanation for this that they were planning the launch Drake alongside of Pokémon but had to delay the console. But something as big and important as Pokémon, they couldn't afford to delay. They were right, despite the technical shortcomings Pokémon kept regular Switch alive for one last fall season.
Yall really need to stop putting pokemon and game freak as this paragon on performance.
9-Volt
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Nah, I ain't stopping that until it's all patched and I doubt it ever will to an acceptable level. We've got a broken game greenlit by a company with a motto of "A rushed game will always be bad", so I'll assume there are other reasons for that.
They way Pokémon SV performs much better on emulators suggests that a better hardware would solve many of its problems (sadly not all), so the theory of devs making the game using new devkits is not unbelievable at all.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Like Like
Miyamoto never said that.
9-Volt
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I didn't say he did? It is their motto regardless, there hasn't been a Nintendo release more broken than Pokémon SV.
Pokemon performs like crap because of a combination of outdated tools and short development time.
Bayonetta performs more or less the same as most Platinum games.
Not true, at least relative to history of where the Series X/S and PS5 install base is vs. prior Gen. Covid probably boosted demand more than hurt supply.
Debatable at least.
This is not the best explanation. Probably the worst one? Actually.
The Occam’s Razor explanation is that GF is not a technically-skilled developer, and they stretched themselves too thin between the scope of the game + co-development of PLA.
They are obviously talking objectively, not subjectively. As someone mentioned, FE is very much a tentpole release. And so is Pikmin even if they’ve, in my opinion, mishandled the franchise lol.
No. This is definitely not the best explanation.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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I never saw it as one, I only saw tentpole releases as games that bring the audience, a game like FE benefits from the audience brought in. And Pikmin rarely ever happens that using that as a tentpole release seems weird to me.
Tentpole: Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Mario 3D, Mario 2D, Splatoon, 3D Zelda, Super Smash Bros to name a few
Benefitters of the tentpoles: Yoshi, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Bayonetta, Xenoblade, WarioWare, Metroid to name a few.
Like I don’t consider Gravity Rush 2 to be a tent pole release(I’m sorry GR fans), I consider Spider-Man to be a tentpole release. Or God of War to be a tentpole release. But not Returnal.
I’ve always classified a Tentpole like this: as raising the tent(sell the console) for others to huddle under, big enough to where others can set up shop and benefit from the tendpole release bringing in those players. And the big titles benefit from the smaller titles in-between because it keeps the players engaged, but smaller titles benefit from the big titles because they get a potential audience, a working relationship between both.
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