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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

So... Nintendo went out of its way to spend more money on specs when they could've accomplished the same (running Switch games better) for much less?
"Running Switch games better" does not equal "Games will also run on Switch." Sonic Frontiers will run on Switch, but it is not a Switch game running “better” on Xbox. It’s a next gen game with an expensive, compromised port based on the sheer install base of the Switch.

The same source that says we’ll get Drake in H1 of 2023 also says there is at least one exclusive. Those combine to point to a console strategy that doesn’t look like anything any console manufacturer has ever done, so personally I’m not confidently predicting anything.
 
So... Nintendo went out of its way to spend more money on specs when they could've accomplished the same (running Switch games better) for much less?

I'm fully in the camp that believes that this machine is the next-gen Nintendo console, but it'll have a longer cross-gen period with a couple of exclusives. Comparing this machine to the likes of the PS4 Pro or New Nintendo 3DS doesn't make much sense to me.
Why are you talking like I said Drake was a PS4 Pro type revision? I've directly compared it to XBS and PS5 even...

Drake successor will also have a cross gen period, so Drake will easily be the baseline for 6+ years to justify the R&D, even if doesn't get a single exclusive for 3 years. Although I do expect a few feature showcase games like Wii Sports and 12Switch and maybe some major traditional game like a 3D Mario or Mario Kart IF they find a great core gameplay which can't be done on OG (but they won't start with "let's make a Mario game significantly more complex than BotW").
 
For the record, 1080p at best to 4K/2160p sounds pretty damn big to me, bigger than the jump from 480i (GameCube) to 480p (Wii) to 720p (Wii U) to 1080p at best (Switch). "SD" to "HD" is so vague, but looking at average resolution numbers of actual released first-party titles, this is the first time since the N64 to GameCube that screen resolution has doubled across hardware cycles. It may not get there in absolute raw performance, but I don't consider it relevant whether this achievement is by raw performance or a "trick" performed by hardware acceleration, because weird hardware trickery has been part of hardware development broadly for decades (and will undoubtedly figure into the development of the next consoles from Microsoft and SIE).

And that's without mentioning the CPU gains (from 3 cores usable for games to allegedly 7), how Tensor cores can assist those CPU cores with AI calculations if there's any headroom there after DLSS (both of which should mean universally-applied and highly effective rollback netcode in future games, for one thing, since you wanted an example of gameplay improvements @karmitt ), significant ray tracing acceleration for minimized GPU hit on a portable device... it all kinda adds up to one of the biggest performance jumps on Nintendo hardware in 2 decades.

Well, 2 separate SKUs at retail don't sound like a good idea to me, but we'll see how things go.
Yeah the resolution and image quality jump will be (at least to start) the largest leap for a Nintendo console ever.

Two of Switch's biggest games - BotW and SMO both don't even run at native 900p when docked. I can tell you from seeing Zelda on PC in person the jump from sub 900p to even 1440p is absolutely staggering. You see sooo much more detail. 4k DLSS will be almost twice the perceived resolution again...

The jump to 60fps for Zelda is also huge in terms of selling it's animated movie vibe. BotW on Switch is already beautiful. At even 1440p/60fps it's jaw dropping and easily looks like a current gen game to me.

I would also say people should stop thinking about Drake's DLSS as the same as the PC version. It's a custom solution which will have all sorts of optimisations and tricks which make it cost far less to render it's frame than it does on massive GPU's with a ton of silicon dedicated to AI IQ solutions.
 
My thoughts are that Drake won't have Nintendo exclusive games (maybe 2 or 3 exceptions like a Astral Chains 2 or Metroid Prime 5) and the OG Switch will continue having oficial support until 2027.
 
It's not like it has to be Mario Mario; it could be Mario adjacent.
Just spitting out a possible raw power showpiece that's possibly influenced by the movie trailer: it's Bowser time. Picture some sort of grand strategy game in which you experience Bowser's conquests before that plumber showed up. Some mix of 4X, kingdom management simulation, and large scale, army vs army battles.
 
Iwata was really concerned about software shortage when transitioning to a new (and completely different) hardware, for both the current and the next user base. They couldn't offer lots of games on the first months of the new console, and also the old base would experience a ~2 years of software shortage because internal studios were already moving their projects to the next hardware.

We are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future.

And considering that the Switch is basically what he said back in 2014, I believe we are going to see up to 2 years of cross-gen games (with regard to 1st party content) after switch 2's launch (unless it has a new 'gimmick' offering a completetly inovative way to play, that can't be reproduced with the current switch. Then, in this case, we could see one or two exclusive games).

Of course, just my opinion lol
 
Why are you talking like I said Drake was a PS4 Pro type revision? I've directly compared it to XBS and PS5 even...

Drake successor will also have a cross gen period, so Drake will easily be the baseline for 6+ years to justify the R&D, even if doesn't get a single exclusive for 3 years. Although I do expect a few feature showcase games like Wii Sports and 12Switch and maybe some major traditional game like a 3D Mario or Mario Kart IF they find a great core gameplay which can't be done on OG (but they won't start with "let's make a Mario game significantly more complex than BotW").

Apologies for wording it that way, I was just making a general statement. Didn't mean to imply that you were positioning Drake as a pro

"Running Switch games better" does not equal "Games will also run on Switch." Sonic Frontiers will run on Switch, but it is not a Switch game running “better” on Xbox. It’s a next gen game with an expensive, compromised port based on the sheer install base of the Switch.

I fully understand this, I just don't think that Nintendo would see this as enough value, especially when you consider how beefy this machine is compared to the Switch.

But then again, we're living in unprecedented times and Nintendo is under new leadership. Who knows how they'll handle a console generation
 
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Do you think that Nintendo's current customer base would be enticed by a console who's value proposition was, "enhanced Switch games and third party ports"? I know that enthusiasts would love this type of machine, but I don't see Nintendo spending so much money on this specific subset of the market.

There will probably be 1-2 exclusive titles in the first year, 3-4 the next, etc ... to showcase the full power of the machine. But Nintendo publish a dozen games every year, most of them being quick AA cash-grabs that will definitely keep releasing on OG Switch for quite a few years.

If the next-gen has good backwards compatibility and gets prominent third-party titles, it's gonna sell out for years anyway, with or without first-party exclusives.
 
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I wonder if the next main line Mario game on Drake will have similar visuals to the upcoming movie. Seems like it could be possible.
 
Some interesting tidbits from a recent article from The Korea Economic Daily with respect to Samsung Electronics. That being said, what The Korea Economic Daily reports should be taken with a healthy grain of salt.

Samsung's unit for contract chipmaking, or foundry, plans to increase its mature nodes and specialty nodes by more than 10 units by 2024, according to industry sources on Sunday. The South Korean tech giant's production capacity of the mature and specialty nodes will rise by 2.3 times by 2027 from the level of 2018.

The mature node is for older chip production technologies such as 10 nanometers (nm), 14 nm, 28 nm, 65 nm and 180 nm processes to be used in vehicles, consumer electronics components and other products that do not require state-of-the-art processes. The specialty node is the customized legacy node to meet customers' requests. The mature and specialty nodes account for more than half of the global foundry business.

The South Korean company plans to invest in the 8 nm process, which is used to produce automotive chips and radio-frequency (RF) chips, and raise its capacity by 1.5 times from the level of 2019.
Samsung's 8N process node is still a possibility. Perhaps not the most ideal possibility, but still a possibility, and probably not as disastrous as people think.
 
What's the point of going all out on these specs if the console won't have any significant exclusives for years? Surely you don't need such a boost in power to run Switch games at a higher and more consistent fidelity
True, the switch 2 can have an RTX 4090 power for all I care but if it only plays Warcraft 3 for the duration of it's life, then expect a market share of a sega dreamcast. IMO they should push exclusive big ticket games day one or they risk what happened to the 3DS -> N3DS. IMO they should convince consumers to get the new Switch or else they won't be able to these shiny games: Mario 3D, Zelda TOTK, Metroid Prime 4, GTA 5/6, COD Modern Warfare, etc.
 
True, the switch 2 can have an RTX 4090 power for all I care but if it only plays Warcraft 3 for the duration of it's life, then expect a market share of a sega dreamcast. IMO they should push exclusive big ticket games day one or they risk what happened to the 3DS -> N3DS. IMO they should convince consumers to get the new Switch or else they won't be able to these shiny games: Mario 3D, Zelda TOTK, Metroid Prime 4, GTA 5/6, COD Modern Warfare, etc.
Zelda and Metroid Prime 4 are off the table, and they're not gonna walk back those versions. IMO, they'll do the same thing Sony and MS has been doing: have versions for both but say games will eventually only be for the new hardware. it's not hurting PS5 and Series, so I don't see it being a problem for Drake. third parties will fill out most of the exclusives with shit like Final Fantasy 7, Cyberpunk, whatever else, and Nintendo might have a new IP as an exclusive but Zelda will still be the headliner
 
Zelda and Metroid Prime 4 are off the table, and they're not gonna walk back those versions. IMO, they'll do the same thing Sony and MS has been doing: have versions for both but say games will eventually only be for the new hardware. it's not hurting PS5 and Series, so I don't see it being a problem for Drake. third parties will fill out most of the exclusives with shit like Final Fantasy 7, Cyberpunk, whatever else, and Nintendo might have a new IP as an exclusive but Zelda will still be the headliner

We really don’t know what things would look like right now were PS5 not supply constrained. For instance, had Sony actually managed to push out as many consoles as they initially hoped, God of War and other big ticket items being cross-gen might have actually slowed down PS5 adoption. As it stands everything’s been selling out, so as long as they have exclusives from 2023 / as supply becomes more abundant, they’ll be good.

We don’t know what next year will look like for Switch, but if they’re able to produce enough consoles I kind of feel like the platform would benefit from a major exclusive before end of the year.
 
We really don’t know what things would look like right now were PS5 not supply constrained. For instance, had Sony actually managed to push out as many consoles as they initially hoped, God of War and other big ticket items being cross-gen might have actually slowed down PS5 adoption. As it stands everything’s been selling out, so as long as they have exclusives from 2023 / as supply becomes more abundant, they’ll be good.

We don’t know what next year will look like for Switch, but if they’re able to produce enough consoles I kind of feel like the platform would benefit from a major exclusive before end of the year.
Sony and MS also cut back on ps4s and Ones. Last gen versions are more about placating people who can't find a Series or 5 yet
 
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Some interesting tidbits from a recent article from The Korea Economic Daily with respect to Samsung Electronics. That being said, what The Korea Economic Daily reports should be taken with a healthy grain of salt.



Samsung's 8N process node is still a possibility. Perhaps not the most ideal possibility, but still a possibility, and probably not as disastrous as people think.
Sounds like the nodes mentioned are the real deal. Increasing production on 28nm basically lines up with TSMC ramping up 28nm production and encouraging clients to re-engineer their chips to that process node to maximize production per wafer (as if they need more encouragement right now). My bet is that the other larger nodes are very popular with technologies that are used for government-regulated products that will take time to move to more advanced processes, would make their already-small chips too small to use, and other such hiccups.
But it looks like every fab owner is trying to move IC production to 28nm as the gold standard of production volume per dollar spent.
 
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The N3DS has like 4x the processing power of the previous one but only has like 4 memorable exclusives during its lifetime + SNES VC. These games are not even big ticket titles.

Edit: To me, N3DS is like the GB->GBC transition that did not do well.
Considering all they added was another two cpu cores, increased cpu clock, and a bit more ram, there's not much you could do. It's not like you could start putting vita games on it natively, the gpu and supported api was the same. Unity came very late in the console's life and still required a largely bespoke game.

The leap for the GBC was, comparatively, a bigger deal: 2x the cpu clock and 3x the memory
 
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And it could display colors. N3DS doesn’t have that kind of game changing tech on it that can be comparable to it

The 3d was far better, in fact it delivered the experience the 3ds failed to provide.
It was that feature that ate almost all the superior grunt sadly.
 
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What happened to the N3DS?
My theory with the N3DS is that it was a hardware solution to the demands of first party developers that were in need of better hardware to finish shipping their games. I don't think even their naming scheme implied they wanted that device to be a next gen portable to be supported with exclusive titles for years to come.
 
My theory with the N3DS is that it was a hardware solution to the demands of first party developers that were in need of better hardware to finish shipping their games. I don't think even their naming scheme implied they wanted that device to be a next gen portable to be supported with exclusive titles for years to come.
barely any first party title even used it. a port of Xenoblade was the highest profile Nintendo game to require it, everything else was forgettable.
 
So USPTO on 20 October 2022 published a patent from Nvidia titled "Holographic Virtual Reality Display", which Nvidia filed on 11 February 2022.

In USPTO's Patent Public Search 1.0.6, type "Holographic Nvidia" and then scroll down until the 'Document ID' shows as "US 20220334395 A1" or the 'Application Number' shows as "17/670337", which should be 'Result #' "200".
 
So USPTO on 20 October 2022 published a patent from Nvidia titled "Holographic Virtual Reality Display", which Nvidia filed on 11 February 2022.

In USPTO's Patent Public Search 1.0.6, type "Holographic Nvidia" and then scroll down until the 'Document ID' shows as "US 20220334395 A1" or the 'Application Number' shows as "17/670337", which should be 'Result #' "200".

.
 
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Edit: To me, N3DS is like the GB->GBC transition that did not do well.
And you think the reason for that was because they didn't make a lot/all of their output exclusive?

The reason GBC sold as much is because Pokemon revived the platform. GBC sold to a lot of GB players wanting to upgrade and got the vast majority of the sales from people who didn't have a GB but wanted to play GB and/or GBC games (like Pokemon RGB and GS) until it started getting big exclusives.

The N3DS sold to a big chunk of 3DS players as an upgrade and replaced the base 3DS/3DSXL to get the vast majority of future sales. Had they made everything exclusive to it, they would get more upgrades but they wouldn't get everyone who had a 3DS either, it would have sold another 20~30 mi at best (and at the cost of 2DS sales too). What the N3DS lacked to be like the GBC was a set of system sellers on the same level as the set of system sellers the GBC got, to attract new users to the platform and consequently to the N3DS, regardless if they could be played on the previous hardware (like Pokemon) or not.

And keep in mind that even if making everything exclusive right away would have gotten more hardware sales in total, they would also alienate a large part of the active user base and greatly impact software sales. And although the N3DS was 5x the price of a game, it also had a much lower profit margin and it's quite likely that a single 1st party game would make them more profit than 1 N3DS sold. So, they probably would have profited significantly less in the generation despite the higher units count.
 
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Saying that the N3DS didn't get many exclusives because it didn't have a lot of exclusives is... well, a little silly.

It was never supposed to get many exclusives. The N3DS was a short term shot in the arm to 3DS sales while trying to get the Switch out the door. Nintendo didn't want to release a generational upgrade, because they knew they were going to release the Switch and drop the DS line on the floor if they pulled it off, and if they didn't pull it off, they were going to need to release a new 4DS after the Switch anyway. But the WiiU was tanking, and it was time for a refresh of the DS family anyway, so the N3DS came out.

I agree that if you don't want to repeat the N3DS's life cycle you shouldn't repeat it's strategy, but the N3DS wasn't a failure or a mistake. It did exactly what Nintendo wanted it to do.
 
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The point is that the exclusives will come, and to a larger initial install base than they otherwise would have gotten, while avoiding the sorts of development pipeline issues that Nintendo had in the Wii/DS -> Wii U/3DS transition by moving things over more gradually. The additional continuity of ecosystem also seems likely to help them retain their existing momentum goin into new hardware.
Gradually is what I expect. But something like "no exclusives for two years" some people predict wouldn't be gradual, just a transition delayed.
I would also say people should stop thinking about Drake's DLSS as the same as the PC version. It's a custom solution which will have all sorts of optimisations and tricks which make it cost far less to render it's frame than it does on massive GPU's with a ton of silicon dedicated to AI IQ solutions.
Why should we assume this? Corners being cut are one thing. But if it's just flat out producing better results with less cost, that'd either be Nintendo beating NVIDIA at their own game, or NVIDIA developing better solutions and choosing not to use them on PC.
Nah, don't think Nintendo will do deep tie ins. There's no need when the ip is as healthy as it is
Everything about their involvement with this Mario movie seems pretty unprecedented, so I don't think we can safely forecast much in this regard.
 
The reason why more third parties didn’t make New 3DS exclusives is because it was still a 3DS, but with an even smaller audience.

If they want the Switch whatever to have more exclusives it’ll have more exclusives by virtue of being a Switch.
 
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Everything about their involvement with this Mario movie seems pretty unprecedented, so I don't think we can safely forecast much in this regard.
yes, but I tend to find such close synergies having more to do with rebranding with a new image than to further the amount of options within an already healthy IP
 
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Why should we assume this? Corners being cut are one thing. But if it's just flat out producing better results with less cost, that'd either be Nintendo beating NVIDIA at their own game, or NVIDIA developing better solutions and choosing not to use them on PC.
Might be somewhat more optimized, due to it being a console edition. Supposedly FSR 2 got Xbox specific optimization on the series consoles.

But I doubt the difference is so stark that we can throw our calculations based on PC ampere cards out the window.
 
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Slightly off topic, but if I recall correctly, in the resetera thread in late 2020 or early 2021, some people speculated that the Succ would be roughly half an orin at around 3tflops. It seems like weve come full circle now haha.
 
Why should we assume this?
I believe their are references in NVN2 leak to the DLSS implementation being specialized.

Corners being cut are one thing. But if it's just flat out producing better results with less cost, that'd either be Nintendo beating NVIDIA at their own game, or NVIDIA developing better solutions and choosing not to use them on PC..
Nvidia has access to some potential optimizations on a console that aren't available to the PC version. At minimum, DLSS is baked into the API which is baked into the driver. At the same time handheld mode will clock an Ampere GPU slower than any PC graphics card. It is certainly possible that NVidia can deliver a version of DLSS that produces better results and/or faster results under those conditions while still being outperformed by the PC version just due to faster hardware.
 
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Slightly off topic, but if I recall correctly, in the resetera thread in late 2020 or early 2021, some people speculated that the Succ would be roughly half an orin at around 3tflops. It seems like weve come full circle now haha.
Indeed. It's uncanny how on point those early predictions were. Ultimately, we were wrong about "binned Orin", but we were right about descending from Orin, and roughly the power target. "Half Big Orin" (now known as AGX Orin) was always sort of optimistic, in terms of raw power draw, but it looks like that's what Nintendo wanted, and Drake seems mostly to exist to get there.
 
Indeed. It's uncanny how on point those early predictions were. Ultimately, we were wrong about "binned Orin", but we were right about descending from Orin, and roughly the power target. "Half Big Orin" (now known as AGX Orin) was always sort of optimistic, in terms of raw power draw, but it looks like that's what Nintendo wanted, and Drake seems mostly to exist to get there.
I don’t think a lot of people actually thought it would be a binned Orin. Orin X was a popular theory, but we always talked about a cut down chip without automotive stuff.
 
I don't think Nintendo needs a cross platform strategy as much as other manufacturers. Look at Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Early Switch games still selling strong at or near full price even now. Since they rarely price cut their games, they can release exclusives and and get paid as Switch owners move to the new platform and purchase those games. However, I don't think they'll just abandon Switch either. Nintendo will probably continue to release games for both platforms for a little while.
 
Indeed. It's uncanny how on point those early predictions were. Ultimately, we were wrong about "binned Orin", but we were right about descending from Orin, and roughly the power target. "Half Big Orin" (now known as AGX Orin) was always sort of optimistic, in terms of raw power draw, but it looks like that's what Nintendo wanted, and Drake seems mostly to exist to get there.

It will be interesting to watch how Nvidia evolves their automotive platforms down the line. Atlan is something I don't expect Nintendo to use but I will be very curious to see their road map beyond that.

As soon as we get some idea of their targets for a 2028/2029 SOC we can probably start speculating about the next device.
 
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I don’t think a lot of people actually thought it would be a binned Orin. Orin X was a popular theory, but we always talked about a cut down chip without automotive stuff.
Yes, a binned ORIN was not on the table at all, as the amount that gets binned isn’t really high. That also doesn’t reduce the cost or size of the chip, simply what is available.


Cut down on the other hand? Yeah, but binned? No. Doesn’t really make sense for a product like this.


Also, ORIN will, at best over the course of its life, only do 1M. But they are sold at a large profit, highest being $2K, when the BoM probably doesn’t even reach $800. And that’s me being very generous here.

It’s a segment that is separate from a “regular” consumer product, doesn’t need the most cutting edge power consumption just the high performance, is for training models to be used for automotive, training robotics, medicine, etc.
 
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