• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • General system instability
    🚧 We apologise for the recent server issues. The site may be unavaliable while we investigate the problem. 🚧

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
NineTailSage said:
I definitely agree that is how they operate in referencing future technologies but considering if T239 is on TSMC's 4nm,
Click to expand...

We don’t have any evidence that it’s on 4nm - or are you saying “If”?

NineTailSage said:
would it make sense to just utilize the Lovelace architecture that is already designed on 4N or by bringing over Ampere from Samsung just for this use purpose...
Click to expand...
Well, it’s definitely Ampere, Nvidia says so in every reference to T239 we can find. But Nvidia doesn’t need to port it to TSMC - Ampere started on TSMC 7nm, before being brought to Samsung 8nm.

Lovelace wasn’t “already designed” it was in development at the same time. Lovelace is objectively power hungry on N4, so for an embedded device with a constrained power draw it likely makes sense to ride the die shrink of the previous arch, rather than try to squeeze power savings out of an in development arch.
 
Legion of Primes said:
I need the new switch to go along with my soon to be new steam deck. The two would be good for each other
Click to expand...
So you're saying... Steam Deck is perfect for Switch?
Sol said:
There's a 0% chance Nintendo announces the new system this year only to jeopardize Switch sales during the key holiday period.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say zero but I agree it's unlikely. They've done stuff like that before but nowadays short marketing cycles are much more common.
Magic-Man said:
I think he was guessing. Launching with BOTW2 in May does make sense, but I'm not sure. I don't think we're in any position to guess a release date yet.
Click to expand...
Nate was not guessing. He's been saying the release window was late 2022 to H1/early 2023 for like 2 years now.
 
oldpuck said:
Re: Clock Speeds, battery and Backwards Compat.

It occurred to me a couple days ago that Drake doesn't need to run 12SMs when running a game linked against NVN instead of NVN2. Yes, NVN2 hardcodes the number of SMs, so we don't expect SMs to be turned off in handheld mode. But the same isn't true for games linked against an original Switch driver.

I've been thinking of the 460MHz mode that Switch has in handheld, and how that might be pushing it for a fat 12SM architecture with a sub 10W power draw, even more so if the CPU is octo-core. But Drake could shut down SMs and drive up clocks when running in backwards compat, similar to how the Wii actually powers down the other CPUs in GameCube mode, or the DS did in GBA mode. If Nintendo is only offering better graphics via patches - if this is more like a successor than a revision, in other words, where they don't need half the library to run better on Drake, just a dozen or so games - then they don't need to offer a beefier back compat mode.

I'm not saying that Nintendo will do this, just that they can and it offers up a much wider range of clocks for Drake. 350Mhz with 12SMs is still a significant power bump, after all.

It also potentially extends battery life considerably in a backcompat mode, with Nintendo shutting off TPCs (the same way Orin does) when running an OG Switch game, and taking full advantage of the process improvements. I know it would only appeal to some players but "Patched games look better, unpatched games give you double the battery life" is a pretty damn compelling pitch.
Click to expand...
How would that kind of a solution work with the OS? Is the assumption for this scenario that the Drake system retains Horizon and allocates similar resources for it, or would this necessitate some kind of limitations like on the Wii U and 3DS?
 
Skittzo said:
So you're saying... Steam Deck is perfect for Switch?

I wouldn't say zero but I agree it's unlikely. They've done stuff like that before but nowadays short marketing cycles are much more common.

Nate was not guessing. He's been saying the release window was late 2022 to H1/early 2023 for like 2 years now.
Click to expand...
It has not been two years. I believe Nate was one of the people predicting a Pro in 2021. I do not fault him for that. Plenty of people got it wrong. But I doubt he's being saying it for two years. I'd be happy to admit I'm wrong though!
 
NintenDuvo said:
Im way too hyped to read through all the new pages, so if someone can be so nice to tell/explain to me, do we have absolute proof that New Hardware for Nintendo should be finalized and entering production soon?
Click to expand...
There is a summary post in the threadmarks, I updated it today

famiboards.com

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I personnally hate this kind of thing. It's impossible to pronounce lol Nintendo Twitch, obviously
famiboards.com famiboards.com
 
0
Magic-Man said:
It has not been two years. I believe Nate was one of the people predicting a Pro in 2021. I do not fault him for that. Plenty of people got it wrong. But I doubt he's being saying it for two years. I'd be happy to admit I'm wrong though!
Click to expand...
Nate wasn't predicting 2021; he was actually confused by the conclusions Mochizuki was drawing at the time.
 
Apopheniac said:
How would that kind of a solution work with the OS? Is the assumption for this scenario that the Drake system retains Horizon and allocates similar resources for it, or would this necessitate some kind of limitations like on the Wii U and 3DS?
Click to expand...
Depends on how feature rich the new OS is. But down clocking the GPU likely doesn’t affect the OS and even if downclocking the CPU is a challenge, the OS still have four cores unused by BC switch games to spread out to
 
0
Magic-Man said:
It has not been two years. I believe Nate was one of the people predicting a Pro in 2021. I do not fault him for that. Plenty of people got it wrong. But I doubt he's being saying it for two years. I'd be happy to admit I'm wrong though!
Click to expand...
Nah that's incorrect. It was either very late 2020 or early 2021 when he said he was hearing late 22-early 23. The only time he said it was releasing in 2021 was when Mochizuki said that, and Nate explicitly said his sources didn't agree but he deferred to Bloomberg's reporting and trusted them.
 
Why do people keep saying that is this new switch is announced it will jeopardize the holiday sales, from what i recall when the OLED was announced the OG Switch was still the top selling device for the months that followed
 
Someone had asked that question re: Nate timing on Pro earlier, I do recall him saying it was 2022 but deferring to Bloomberg, and had found these quotes from May 2021.

Software will always play a roll in launch timing and select software with the revision in mind is currently slated for 2022.
Click to expand...

Kingpin Rogers said:
Unless this is based on info you've heard rather than just your own personal speculation I find it hard to believe it won't launch this year with most places saying it will. Suppose we'll find out but hopefully you're wrong haha.
Click to expand...
I have had no indication of a 2021 launch in several months. All info on my end has been pointing to 2022.
Click to expand...

As recently as a month or so ago, the chip wasn't finished. Aspects remained to be tweaked & altered to achieve certain performance goals. I've said a 2022 launch is the direction my information is pushing me towards for a while now. It could change, as plans with hardware are in constant flux and evolve by the moment. Nintendo still needs to consider numerous factors -- software, supply, etc...

But, as of this moment, a launch in 2021 seems unlikely. I'd love to see it launch this holiday; but I'm not expecting it, though I'd love to be surprised.
Click to expand...

(Reading through these old threads made me kinda wince a little)
 
NintenDuvo said:
Why do people keep saying that is this new switch is announced it will jeopardize the holiday sales, from what i recall when the OLED was announced the OG Switch was still the top selling device for the months that followed
Click to expand...
Well A) there's a difference between "best selling" and jeopardizing sales. It could've had more sales for all we know, even if it beat out the other consoles who were struggling with supply issues.

B) the OLED model launched before the holiday season so it didn't jeopardize holiday sales, which is when most of Nintendo's business happens. It jeopardized sales in the mid-late summer period, which are never all that high to begin with.

C), and the most important reason IMO, there's simply no reason to even risk it. What do they gain by announcing it 1-2 months earlier? They get out ahead of leaks? This thing has already leaked to hell and back, we know more about it than we've known about virtually any console in history 6+ months before launch.
 
Skittzo said:
Nah that's incorrect. It was either very late 2020 or early 2021 when he said he was hearing late 22-early 23. The only time he said it was releasing in 2021 was when Mochizuki said that, and Nate explicitly said his sources didn't agree but he deferred to Bloomberg's reporting and trusted them.
Click to expand...
That makes sense! Honestly if I was going up against a major news site I'd defer too.
 
oldpuck said:
We don’t have any evidence that it’s on 4nm - or are you saying “If”?


Well, it’s definitely Ampere, Nvidia says so in every reference to T239 we can find. But Nvidia doesn’t need to port it to TSMC - Ampere started on TSMC 7nm, before being brought to Samsung 8nm.

Lovelace wasn’t “already designed” it was in development at the same time. Lovelace is objectively power hungry on N4, so for an embedded device with a constrained power draw it likely makes sense to ride the die shrink of the previous arch, rather than try to squeeze power savings out of an in development arch.
Click to expand...
Just saying if it lands on TSMC's 4N...
Are you stating that Ampere A100 on TSMC's 7nm and the desktop GPUs on Samsung's 8 process are essentially the same?
 
I think there's as strong chance for an October reveal, Nintendo generally tries to stick to precedent for hardware and game reveals and with that in mind they revealed the switch in October while they revealed both revisions in July, assuming the new console is treated as a successor it'd make sense to aim for October just like the original switch. Secondly the revisions were revealed the month after new directs so if they continue the trend it'd also make sense for it to be revealed next month. If it doesn't end up happening I think the second point could still hold true for the next direct.

Edit: the original switch also was revealed the month after a direct so the last 3 consoles(switch and it's 2 revisions) we're revealed the month after a direct
 
Last edited:
JoshuaJSlone said:
Yes, but that just requires overclocked Mariko. He asks if anything requires PS4 power + DLSS. I guess it would have to be one of the few next-gen exclusives? I'm not sure any PS4 games go as low as 720p as is, though if any of the sub-1080p ones are at 30fps then it might need a boost to reach 720p60.

I wouldn't think much? When I think of how these methods affect visuals, it's mostly instances of where things have gone wrong. Objects with trails or obvious ghosting, things like that. But those tend to get fixed in future versions, rather than sticking around so long that games start to be designed with them in mind.
Click to expand...
I was thinking of something like Elden Ring or Tales of Arise. Although it can be done with the current switch, it will be probably running at 360p with the worst possible settings. A good specs can make porting much much easier since there is no need to downgrade your assets just to make it run on a potato. DLSS is for performance to make it somehow on par with the current gen consoles. So yeah, imagine if you can play current gen games better than the PS4 on a portable.
 
0
Any chance we get a docked only switch that has higher specs than a regular switch from this revision? I remember Iwata saying it was supposed to be a family of systems back at launch and we have only got the lite.
 
NineTailSage said:
Just saying if it lands on TSMC's 4N...
Are you stating that Ampere A100 on TSMC's 7nm and the desktop GPUs on Samsung's 8 process are essentially the same?
Click to expand...
That is my understanding. NVidia docs call them "Ampere-A" and "Ampere-B" but the only differences I can see are just how the driver needs to be implemented

Update: There is a difference! Ampere-B added AV-1 decode to NVDEC
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dakhil said:
No. But the Jetson AGX Xavier and Jetson Xavier NX are running on Linux.

Jetson AGX Orin and Jetson Orin NX are also running on Linux, but use T234, not T239.
Click to expand...
OK, cool, so it’s nothing but good news all round. Happy that we seem to have confirmed that new hardware is truly imminent.
niconiconick64 said:
Wait a minute, only 30FPS for video encode? that's kinda disappointing :(
I mean, my cope is that it's at least capable of 720p60. Shouldn't be hard, right? I mean, most cheapo chinese capture cards that are capable of 1080p30 always support 720p60 on the flipside. Well, actually MJPEG and YUY2 (at 480p). So not really comparable... But you get the point.
Click to expand...
AI upscaling also works for video. Just saying.
N 2 Deep said:
It is a shame this is essentially the Switch 2 but it will fall under a different name (like Switch Pro or Switch+). But Nintendo probably wants that best selling console of all time moniker
Click to expand...
Not sure that they or their investors care.
Sol said:
I mean, the way I see it is that Nintendo just doesn't gain anything by announcing a new platform in October/November vs January/February, especially if it's not releasing until May anyway with TotK. I can't think of a single reason why they would announce it in a month or two.

However, doing so would put a sizable dent in Switch sales over the holiday period, especially when the Switch is poised to have a massive holiday season with a new generation of Pokemon coming out.

They did announce the Switch in October, but that was a very different situation with a console that was on its last dying breath. I would seriously be floored if Nintendo announced some kind of new platform before the end of the year.

I expect some kind of trailer or hardware themed Direct in January or February.
Click to expand...
More time to generate consumer interest and a larger window for 3rd-parties to prep and announce titles. Game consoles aren’t iPhones. A tight window to hype up hardware could be less advantageous. If they’re launching it in May to coincide with TotK, though, January may be the latest ideal time to start, though not much later. That said, I don’t hold it as a guarantee.

And the notion that a dent in holiday sales is some sort of guarantee does not align with… nearly every other Nintendo hardware‘s final uncontested holiday sales period? I did the research, this large dent in sales has never existed in the final holiday season prior to a new hardware launch. It didn’t happen with the DS, why should I expect it to happen with Switch?
 
tarv said:
Any chance we get a docked only switch that has higher specs than a regular switch from this revision? I remember Iwata saying it was supposed to be a family of systems back at launch and we have only got the lite.
Click to expand...

I remember he said they didn't know at the time if it would be one device or a family of devices; consumer's demand would determine what they would do.

If they think there's a demand for a product like this [that's not being met with what they're already offering], than it's money on the table [and they'll go for it].
 
Onizuka said:
What is happening today? What new information do we have? I'm trying to collect today's information but it's getting out of hand.
I don't fully understand what is happening and also my language is not English (in fact I usually use translators to be able to communicate).
The reason for my question about what's going on today is because I'm seeing a lot of movement and comments on social media about the T239 and other clues that seem to lead us to the Switch review. Could someone explain what is happening? Thanks.
Click to expand...

"English is not my first language"

Proceeds to write better English than a lot of native speakers.
 
Terrell said:
And the notion that a dent in holiday sales is some sort of guarantee does not align with… nearly every other Nintendo hardware‘s final uncontested holiday sales period?
Click to expand...

This is factually untrue. 2015, 2016 and H1 2017 look almost identical to each other for 3DS family sales - until the October Switch announcement confirmed that the NX was a handheld, and 3DS sales dropped 20% over the previous holiday season.
Terrell said:
I did the research, this large dent in sales has never existed in the final holiday season prior to a new hardware launch. It didn’t happen with the DS, why should I expect it to happen with Switch?
Click to expand...
The DS fell off the quarter after the 3DS announced - which was in July, not October. The argument isn't that the holiday drops after an announcement, in which case it wouldn't matter when it got announced, but that it's the quarter after the announcement drops, that's why you avoid the holiday.

There is very little evidence of a holiday drop - the 3DS->Switch example excluded - indeed because that sort of timing is avoided.
 
Raccoon said:
I would argue that it's very important but the conversation has no backing behind it. There's no intelligent postulation about what they'll do
Click to expand...
Or at least not any that hasn't been hashed out over 897 pages across two different forums.
 
0
Raccoon said:
I would argue that it's very important but the conversation has no backing behind it. There's no intelligent postulation about what they'll do
Click to expand...
It only changes how Nintendo markets it but this is the hardware for the next 5+ years. There are no reasonable gains to be made over T239 that could be made in 2-3 years that consumers would see a real impact over that wouldn't also cost a fuck ton for Nintendo to R&D and produce in qtys that make economic sense.

So what they call it is irrelevant. This is the thing that will get exclusive content at some point going forward. Besides that what is there to discuss? Nintendo can position it however they want, with these specs its getting exclusive software.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
It only changes how Nintendo markets it but thia is the hardware for the next 5+ years. There are no reasonable gains to be made over T239 that could be made in 2-3 years that consumers would see a real impact over that wouldn't also cost a fuck ton.

So what they call it ia irrelevant. This is the thing that will get exclusive content at some point going forward. Besides that what is there to discuss? Nintendo can position it however they want, with these specs its getting exclusive software.
Click to expand...
how it is positioned is very closely related to what software and features it gets, but there's nothing to discuss because none of us have any idea of what kind of support it will get
 
Raccoon said:
how it is positioned is very closely related to what software and features it gets, but there's nothing to discuss because none of us have any idea of what kind of support it will get
Click to expand...
I mean not really. The specs of the system will determine what software it gets. Whether they call it a pro or a successor it is very clear this is the next Nintendo hardware for the next 5+ years. There isn't any reason to think third party software would or wouldn't come based on that positioning so long as it sells well.

For Nintendo software same deal. There is going to be a cross gen period regardless. But they'll be making exclusive hardware for this thing for years. We aren't going to have another 5 years of cross gen Switch support from when this thing launches.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
I mean not really. The specs of the system will determine what software it gets. Whether they call it a pro or a successor it is very clear this is the next Nintendo hardware for the next 5+ years. There isn't any reason to think third party software would or wouldn't come base on that positioning so long as it sells well.

For Nintendo software same deal. There is going to be a cross gen period regardless. But they'll be making exclusive hardware for this thing for years. We aren't going to have another 5 years of cross gen Switch support from when this thing launches.
Click to expand...
okay but you see how your argument is predicated on you having already assumed how it will be positioned, right? it's circular logic: it doesn't matter how they position it because either way it will be positioned like this
 
Mr Doggo said:
someone who is reasonable smart explain this to a guy who has a yellowish dog as pfp
Click to expand...

Basically this:
Thraktor said:
Well done on spotting this!

For anyone unsure about what this means, the important part is this:

We know from a variety of sources that the T239 chip is Drake, ie the one being used in the new Switch model. It having "eight cores in a single cluster" means it has 8 CPU cores (obviously), but doesn't strictly speaking limit what those cores can be, as ARM's DynamicIQ supports clusters with mixes of different cores (eg 4x A78 and 4x A55). However, as the code would almost certainly have to be changed to support these hetergeneous clusters (ie different core types would run at different frequencies), and the commit here doesn't make such changes, we can reasonably assume that the cores are all of the same type. The only big ARM cores which can be configured with 8 cores in a single cluster are the A78 (in the A78C variant) and later, and given the T234/Orin SoC uses A78 cores, it seems very likely that T239 is using an 8 core A78C CPU.

Furthermore, the fact that T239 support is being added to the Linux kernel means that Nvidia plan to use it in products other than the new Switch. This isn't particularly surprising, as the Mariko chip (T210B01) was also created for Nintendo, but used in other products (Jetson Nano), so Nintendo don't seem to have any problem with their semi-custom parts being used elsewhere. It likely allows them to get a better deal from Nvidia.

Lastly, code being updated to support T239 likely means that there is actually hardware to run this code on. That is, at the very least, engineering samples of T239 already exist, meaning full scale production of the chip is likely to start soon if it hasn't already.



It could be a Shield product, or Jetson (although that would have some overlap with Jetson Orin NX in performance), or it could be a third party product, like an Android tablet or Chromebook or whatever. Hard to tell, but they definitely expect to use this in non-Nintendo products.
Click to expand...
 
Sol said:
I mean, the way I see it is that Nintendo just doesn't gain anything by announcing a new platform in October/November vs January/February, especially if it's not releasing until May anyway with TotK. I can't think of a single reason why they would announce it in a month or two.

However, doing so would put a sizable dent in Switch sales over the holiday period, especially when the Switch is poised to have a massive holiday season with a new generation of Pokemon coming out.

They did announce the Switch in October, but that was a very different situation with a console that was on its last dying breath. I would seriously be floored if Nintendo announced some kind of new platform before the end of the year.

I expect some kind of trailer or hardware themed Direct in January or February.
Click to expand...
maybe, but someone who buys a regular switch on holliday will not buy another model 3 months later,announcing early people can hold their money
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
But at the end its a unit sold, some months later but at a higher price.
Announcement this year isn´t out of the question.
Click to expand...
Yes & no
  • Yes in that it is a model sold at some future point. This is however debatable since it could also mean a loss of a sale completely or way later down the line.
  • No in that investors are going to be asking lots of questions about why profits dipped for one of the most important times of the year. The worse the dip in profits, the more consequences could be faced including loss of trust.
I just don’t think it worth it to announce now for any tangible gain. There are mostly downsides to announcing now imo.
 
Raccoon said:
okay but you see how your argument is predicated on you having already assumed how it will be positioned, right? it's circular logic: it doesn't matter how they position it because either way it will be positioned like this
Click to expand...

No. We know what technology limits exist today and how fabrication and R&D work. So we know how advanced T239 is and right now we basically know in or around where it will be im capability. From there all you really can discuss is whether it gets exclusive software or not amd those specs are extremely overkill for a device that wouldn't be allowed to have exclusive software.

So then what else would change anything?

I think a lot of people overthink this successor vs pro talk. There is no functional difference because technology available to produce a generational jump from T239 is way out. It is just marketing speak. This wont change software development or inclusion.
 
Super NES and Game Boy Advance could have been called NES 2 and Game Boy 2. I think those even might have been internal development names.

(Maybe not Game Boy 2 because they released an accessory in Japan called 'Super Game Boy 2' lmao)

They picked more eye-catching, 'upgrade' sounding titles despite both those consoles being successors. Without context they sound like 'Pro' models. With context it's obvious because of the leap in power, improved controls, and exclusive software.

While I think a Switch 2 name would be super clear, I can't help but feel they're averse to numbers. Maybe they break that trend here.

Functionally Drake is a next-gen Switch. They can give it a new moniker like Switch Ultra, Switch DX, or reuse names and call it a Super Switch or a Switch Advance, keep the brand name and say "it's the Switch but even better!" like they did for their last 'Super' and 'Advance' consoles. But unlike those it has the advantage of scalability for good cross-gen support and adding enhancements to backwards compatible titles. Or so I hope.

Maybe we'll live in a timeline where they keep cycling between these names like Switch -> Switch Super -> Switch Ultra -> Switch Max -> Switch Plus Ultra etc. because they refuse to use numbers lool
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
But at the end its a unit sold, some months later but at a higher price.
Announcement this year isn´t out of the question.
Click to expand...
It could mess with the stock price this time of year though. Announcing a new console during the holiday season isn't a great idea. A March 3rd announcement makes the most sense to me.
 
0
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom