Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
700 to a scalper of coursewould you rather pay 500 to Nintendo or 700 to a scalper?
700 to a scalper of coursewould you rather pay 500 to Nintendo or 700 to a scalper?
That's the idea. Keep demand down to prevent scalping and make them easier to obtainMan I'm a bit of a Nintendo fanboy and I own that but $500 for new hardware is just too much. I don't know that I'd jump in on that at full price.
I'd only jump in on it only if this new hardware is meant to kick off a new generation, otherwise there is absolutely no way I'm paying for that much on a mere revision that's just going to play the same games, my current Switch can already do thatMan I'm a bit of a Nintendo fanboy and I own that but $500 for new hardware is just too much. I don't know that I'd jump in on that at full price.
I say discontinue the OG switch, cut the OLED to $300 and make whatever is next $400. And that's already pushing it.
Thanks for your contributions to this discussion over the years . Let's see what next week brings!I'll say this, Drake should be on shelves before this time next year, from you and everyone else talking about it, games are already being readied for the device and there is some reason to believe that the reveal will be in 2 or 3 weeks, I'd even suggest July 12-14th for such a reveal, mainly because they didn't show off any first party games in this last direct, but there is many more reasons to believe it is happening soon, both public and private. I can hang on for a few more weeks with hype I guess.
That requires Nintendo and Nvidia to completely redesign the Tegra X1+ with Samsung's IPs in mind, which I don't think is inexpensive, since the Tegra X1+'s using TSMC's IPs when fabricated using TSMC's 16 nm** process node.This seems pretty farfetched but perhaps the regular Switch, the Lite and the Shield get a refreshed T214 (T219?) on 8 nm with slightly better battery life. This means no DLSS or RT for these models.
Yes, some of the regulars discussed this potential Switch lineup on Discord:How about, instead of discontinuing the OLED or the V2, they just temporarily discontinue the lite and drop the V2 to 250?
It’s not like the Lite sells amazingly…
Price bracket would be: 250, 350 and 450 in this case
| ||||||||||||
Advantages of keeping V2 over Lite:
|
[OT alert] I understand that sentiment. The reality is that during every economic upheaval, the rich always gets richer. We all just witnessed this during the height of COVID. For the same reason, when the economy's bad, luxury stocks such as LVMH and staple stocks such Walmarts often perform better than everything in the middle (the middle got hollowed out). The PS5, XSX, SD, and likely Drake will continue to be priced for those with disposable incomes. Nintendo simply stated that they'd "closely monitor the situation", but didn't indicate any intention of price reduction. I'd vote for a more just taxation system, but hardly expect a business to voluntarily seek lowered profits.[/OT]Just after Nintendo was talking about having to consider people are struggling and having less disposable income, this place turns into an auction house
Is the OLED Model really still $350 in the US? Here in Switzerland you can get it already for ~$330 and the regular Switch for ~$270$350
Yes, still $350 and sometimes out of stock even. I recall that the price cut in Europe was due to the exchange rate?Is the OLED Model really still $350 in the US? Here in Switzerland you can get it already for ~$330 and the regular Switch for ~$270
I'd disagree, I think the Lite will be the last of the T214-based models to be discontinued. Nintendo have historically kept the cheapest to manufacture model around for the longest (eg Wii Mini, 2DS), as it allows them to maintain comfortable profits on hardware while selling to a typically price-conscious late adopters. I'd also argue that the Switch Lite has a specific market that the V2 hybrid model doesn't address as well: young kids. Parents not only want a cheaper option, particularly when they're buying one for each child, but the Lite is more durable than any of the hybrid Switch models, as there aren't any detachable parts which can be lost of broken.Yes, some of the regulars discussed this potential Switch lineup on Discord:
Drake Model OLED Model V2 Model Lite $450 $350 $250-$200 (dockless?) Suspended or discontinued(There are enough discussions in this thread about the potential Drake pricing. I'll skip it here.)
- Nintendo claimed that the OLED Model's profit margin is lower. They may not be willing to drop the price.
- It essentially becomes the standard model in this new product lineup.
- Presently it may be the most profitable model, and has room for a price reduction.
- In certain markets Nintendo could unbundle the dock to lower the entry point.
- iPhone SE, the cheapest model, goes in and out of production based on Apple's needs. Nintendo can do the same.
- They might bring it back later with further cost reduction (e.g., digital only), or Drake upgrade.
Advantages of keeping V2 over Lite:
- There's more commonality between V2, OLED, and presumably Drake models. By removing Lite from production, it'd simplify the supply chain, enhance the economies of scale, and improve production line flexibility.
- If V2 indeed goes dockless, Nintendo could discontinue the old dock and sell only the OLED dock, further simplifying the logistics.
- V2's compatibility with Joy-Con required games, such as Switch Sports and Ring Fit, is better than Lite.
- If they can manage to reduce the V2 price to $250 or lower, it may seem a better value than Lite to consumers.
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Indeed the $200 price point is great for mindshare and second unit sales to existing Switch owners.My guess is that they'll keep the Lite at $200 for the time being, have a version of the OLED model at $300 (possibly a 32GB version), and then the Drake model at $400 or so. They don't need to keep all three hybrid models around and I would assume they'll keep the OLED model around as it will share more components with the Drake model (including the dock).
Yeah I get the idea of getting hardware in as many hands as possible to generate revenue from software sales...but Switch is still selling faster than they can produce it. No incentive to drop the Lite price yet.Nintendo preferring to lower a Switch price? Doubtful. Plus there's a risk in pricing a discount model too low relative to the regular one.
That's certainly a very likely scenario, and seemingly the expectation of the majority. I simply wanted to provide an alternative that may not be as farfetched as it appears. In the first 6 months alone after the OLED introduction, about 2.3 million existing Switch units were replaced by the new model (40% of OLED sales). I'd guess that the trend will only accelerate when the Drake model is released, creating a glut of used units entering the secondhand market or becoming hand-me-downs. The low-end/children's segment would be well fed, even if the Lite is temporarily withdrawn from the market. (Granted, the same can be said about the V2.)I'd disagree, I think the Lite will be the last of the T214-based models to be discontinued. Nintendo have historically kept the cheapest to manufacture model around for the longest (eg Wii Mini, 2DS), as it allows them to maintain comfortable profits on hardware while selling to a typically price-conscious late adopters. I'd also argue that the Switch Lite has a specific market that the V2 hybrid model doesn't address as well: young kids. Parents not only want a cheaper option, particularly when they're buying one for each child, but the Lite is more durable than any of the hybrid Switch models, as there aren't any detachable parts which can be lost of broken.
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Yeah it is propably that. But when I‘m looking up prices in europe, it seems like the Switch really is usually a bit cheaper than in the US. For example you can get the OLED model for 316€ on Amazon Germany which is 324$.Yes, still $350 and sometimes out of stock even. I recall that the price cut in Europe was due to the exchange rate?
Nintendo preferring to lower a Switch price? Doubtful. Plus there's a risk in pricing a discount model too low relative to the regular one.
Also, a digital only Lite doesn't make much sense to me since it's viewed as a second system and not being able to swap cartridges with it would be a drawback.
I’d argue the Lite really isn’t addressing that market better then the V2. Based on sales extrapolation & anecdotal evidence the trade off, between Lite’s durability & V2’s versatility, doesn’t really favor the Lite. The price isn’t really doing much for it either as we see from sales. At this point in time young kids are pretty well taken care with V2 & OLED entering into the market either to become hand me down or resold at cheaper prices. The Lite is kinda just there to provide a budget alternative to those who don’t care about the Switch’s versatility.I'd disagree, I think the Lite will be the last of the T214-based models to be discontinued. Nintendo have historically kept the cheapest to manufacture model around for the longest (eg Wii Mini, 2DS), as it allows them to maintain comfortable profits on hardware while selling to a typically price-conscious late adopters. I'd also argue that the Switch Lite has a specific market that the V2 hybrid model doesn't address as well: young kids. Parents not only want a cheaper option, particularly when they're buying one for each child, but the Lite is more durable than any of the hybrid Switch models, as there aren't any detachable parts which can be lost of broken.
My guess is that they'll keep the Lite at $200 for the time being, have a version of the OLED model at $300 (possibly a 32GB version), and then the Drake model at $400 or so. They don't need to keep all three hybrid models around and I would assume they'll keep the OLED model around as it will share more components with the Drake model (including the dock).
Sure, I just don't think it'll happen because of Drake being introduced. But I'm just guessing so ¯\(ツ)/¯I don't mean to overstate the obvious, but I'd like everyone to keep in mind Nintendo prefers whatever arrangement they think will result in the most profit. What that is currently, won't matter in the future if their analysts feel a different arrangement will lead to more profit. Ie if in the future they are able to produce more units as burdens to production are eased, they may feel the market is losing elasticity, or that lowering the price will bring in enough new customers to make an increased profit over the smaller number of consumers paying a higher price.
That means their stance may appear fluid as the environment changes, when it's not, the base is anchored and unmoving.
I noticed this too. If you go back he’s always in the know. The guys been in the industry for 30+ years all the way back to the UK games magazine scene.I often get the feeling that they - especially Rich - know more than they're letting on on this topic. He's said in the past that he doesn't want to partake in rumours - only if he knows something that'll truly benefit the audience (like the Switch clocks back in 2016). Normally I feel like he doesn't want to linger too much on Switch 2 questions, but this time they took a little more time. It's interesting how he treats a New Switch (tm) in this coming year as something self-evident. Definitely worth a watch!
Sure, I just don't think it'll happen because of Drake being introduced. But I'm just guessing so ¯\(ツ)/¯
I often get the feeling that they - especially Rich - know more than they're letting on on this topic.
I tend to take them at their word when they say they don’t know anything - if for no other reason than their frustration at “DF said” articles is so palpable.I noticed this too. If you go back he’s always in the know. The guys been in the industry for 30+ years all the way back to the UK games magazine scene.
I tend to take them at their word when they say they don’t know anything - if for no other reason than their frustration at “DF said” articles is so palpable.
I remember reading something about during recessions, goods go down while services go up. it probably helps that getting the console is the one time cost, while there are a great many games at low costI remember Matt from NPD saying that they game market is pretty “recession-proof”. The 2008 recession didn’t really effect the games market, if I recall. $450 would be a steal for Drake. Maybe $500 wouldn’t, but it would still sell out for the first two years, like the PS5 and XSX.
Your scenario 1 really wouldn't work. Drake is not a drop-in replacement for Mariko like Mariko was for Erista.This post is 1000% speculation.
Scenario 1 - Nvidia ends TSMC 16 nm production forcing a refresh of all T214 devices
With the addition of 4 nm capacity for the RTX 4000 series and a big drop in RTX 3000 production Nvidia could rationalise some of their older processes.
This means that all Switch and Shield models get refreshed with the new T239 (Drake). The Lite is handheld only so it doesn't need the fancy cooling for docked DLSS.
Nintendo can select new components that will remain in production until the end of the Switch lifespan. This is similar to the 2019 refresh as the TSMC 20 nm process and the LPDDR4 memory used in the original Switch model were end-of-life.
Like the 3DS Nintendo can flexibly allocate SOC supply between the three models as they wind down production of the Switch.
Currently there are regular discounts on all Switch models so Nintendo could use this refresh to revert to standard pricing.
For this scenario the process will need to be cheap, so Samsung 8 nm is the top contender.
Scenario 2 - T239 on TSMC 4 nm or 6 nm
Also known as the enthusiast option. The higher cost means that the new T239 is only used for a new Switch 4K and the Shield Pro.
The components used in the current Switch models will need to remain in production for 3+ years to make this is a viable option.
Perhaps this could replace the OLED?
Scenario 3 - Some combination of the above
This seems pretty farfetched but perhaps the regular Switch, the Lite and the Shield get a refreshed T214 (T219?) on 8 nm with slightly better battery life. This means no DLSS or RT for these models.
Then the OLED and the Shield Pro then go up in price and get a more expensive T239 that includes all the new features.
Deleted. Misread.These nomenclatures are funny. 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, I even read 1nm... If a transistor had any characteristic length below 7-8nm, or even 10nm, expecially in the etched silicon part, your computers wouldn't work. Once you get below De Broglie's wavelength, quantum tunneling will start fucking up whatever gain you may have. I can't wait for Drake II being based on the 1 Angstrom process of TSMC.
I don't understand what this new thing was doing, but I didn't think it should be possible with emulation. I asked about something similar a few years back (something like 'what could DLSS do for N64 games rendering at their original resolution'), but the consensus was such a thing wasn't possible because the old games weren't providing things DLSS needs like motion vectors. Anyway, just straight up increasing the rendering resolution seems simpler. I wouldn't THINK that doing 2160p should bring up many new issues they haven't already dealt with changing the rendering resolution to 2x or 3x normal.I’m talking about the emulation issues caused with increasing resolution, like things rendering incorrectly, if they did DLSS the base resolution could stay 720p, avoiding new issues.
From 3DS/WiiU to Switch was "Less but more powerful". No more second screen, no more camera, no more microphone, no stereoscopic 3D screen or asymmetrical multiplayer, in service of a very straightforward console experience that can also work on the go. If they don't take away even more for Switch 2, it's a step up.I just find it strange that Nintendo is suddenly going back to the Game Cube philosophy of "an equal but more powerful console" for a successor. I need to see something else, new and different, to truly believe it.
It's hard to me to believe that they are going to change their philosophy after Wii, Wii U, DS, 3DS and Switch.
Did Nintendo just private the OLED reveal trailer?
The joy-con are revolutionary for local multiplayer and that's something that neither 3DS or Wii U had.I don't understand what this new thing was doing, but I didn't think it should be possible with emulation. I asked about something similar a few years back (something like 'what could DLSS do for N64 games rendering at their original resolution'), but the consensus was such a thing wasn't possible because the old games weren't providing things DLSS needs like motion vectors. Anyway, just straight up increasing the rendering resolution seems simpler. I wouldn't THINK that doing 2160p should bring up many new issues they haven't already dealt with changing the rendering resolution to 2x or 3x normal.
From 3DS/WiiU to Switch was "Less but more powerful". No more second screen, no more camera, no more microphone, no stereoscopic 3D screen or asymmetrical multiplayer, in service of a very straightforward console experience that can also work on the go. If they don't take away even more for Switch 2, it's a step up.
These nomenclatures are funny. 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, I even read 1nm... If a transistor had any characteristic length below 7-8nm, or even 10nm, expecially in the etched silicon part, your computers wouldn't work. Once you get below De Broglie's wavelength, quantum tunneling will start fucking up whatever gain you may have. I can't wait for Drake II being based on the 1 Angstrom process of TSMC.
Pretty sure Jim Keller would disagree and I’m sure he knows more than you.