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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Game sizes are going to be interesting with the new hardware especially for third party games. The increase in size was massive between the PS360 and PS4/XBO and a lot of the games ended up needing large installations.
 
YolkFolk said:
Game sizes are going to be interesting with the new hardware especially for third party games. The increase in size was massive between the PS360 and PS4/XBO and a lot of the games ended up needing large installations.
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That partially has to do with the nature of how those games are made and partially the hardware they are made for/on.

Slow HDD + terrible CPUs + no real hardware decompression = very large files, lots of duplicate data and mandatory installs.

You can cut down a lot of this by having better hardware that fits the current modern standardS and hardware blocks on the silicon that help make things more manageable for some aspects of a game.
 
Serif said:


Since this thread has previously brought up comparisons between Steam Deck and Drake's theoretical performance, thought this might be of interest.

As one expects, there's a lot of settings turned down and the Deck has a 800/720p target so it doesn't need to match the Series S flop for flop to have decent IQ/framerate on its screen. But I like what I see.
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This is a lot closer than I thought it would be, they also did a test with flight simulator and I think it got 720p and locked 30 fps on the deck and that game is next gen only

Pretty sure I’m going to sell my series S and replace it with a deck
 
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Hermii said:
Its also fundamentally an unfair comparison. If SD had gotten console style optimisation, it would have been significantly closer.
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Of course. Steam Deck is at the end of the day a handheld PC that has to run most ports through Proton so the comparisons are imperfect. It just makes me more interested in how cross-gen games will fare on Drake.
 
Serif said:
Of course. Steam Deck is at the end of the day a handheld PC that has to run most ports through Proton so the comparisons are imperfect. It just makes me more interested in how cross-gen games will fare on Drake.
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I'm really enjoying my Steam Deck been playing the Sonic Racing game funnily enough, didn't expect to see that in the DF video haha. If Switch Pro / 2 has comparable hardware to SD then it's going to be incredibly powerful considering it's games will be highly optimised and also have DLSS on top to help it out GPU wise.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
Steam Deck is a low end PC, it was never going to be fair in the first place
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Hermii said:
So is series s. At least hardware wise.
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Deck is a laptop tier PC crammed into a Switch like casing, Series S isn't contrained by the power draw of the deck.
I think this is really where Switch shows its advantages. Games optimized for the Switch will go a long way. Certainly deck is probably too far ahead tech wise, but Switch ports of many PC games have compared favorably to the Win Max and the Win 3 trying to run them.
 
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Everything here is what you would expect from the Deathloop comparison - primarily what's interesting here is the second data point confirming the early conclusions. DLSS looks better, especially in performance mode, and runs faster.

GoW as a game hits FSR's weaknesses harder than Deathloop, and in a few cases generated images that were legit awful in performance mode. For the most part, though, FSR 2.0 scream's past the custom TAAU solution in the game, at equivalent performance. FSR's only win against DLSS was in depth of field effects, a place I suspect that DLSS can catch up, as I don't think it's a problem with DLSS architecturally (unlike FSR's motion artifacts, which I think butts hard up against the limitations of a hand tuned upscaler)

Side note: DLSS is still iterating, as Alex demonstrates in the video, but in the console space, the version of DLSS/NVN2 at release is almost definitely going to be locked into the game. It'll be interesting to see how often that trickles down into Nintendo SDK updates, and if adoption is broad, how much improvement we are going to see over the life of a console.

At the current rate, PS6/Xbox5 will release into a world with a mature AI upscaling solution, and against a console that has years of experience in integration. If matrix accelerated FSR 3.0 has been out for several years at that point, then perhaps next gen consoles can launch with games taking full advantage of that hardware. But if AMD holds back a generation on getting matrix cores into desktop GPUs, then there still could be a development/learning curve to catch up with Nintendo
 
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Look over there said:
Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?
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No way of knowing, even if there is a contractually agreed upon number.

I would bet that Nvidia spent $x dollar developing something for Nintendo. They would eat part of it and roll the rest into the per unit price of whatever they replace it with.

And then they go back to TSMC or Samsung and the same thing would happen upstream.
 
Look over there said:
Yaknow, as absurd as it is, I am a bit curious;
NOT THAT IT'S HAPPENING, but how big of a fee would Nintendo have to pay Nvidia for breaking that contract by shelving Drake? Anybody got a ballpark in the number of digits in USD?
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Fermi problem - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Let us assume that Nintendo’s contractual costs for killing the project are designed to make NVidia whole.

Let us assume that, because Orin AGX is in production, that Drakes production is active or imminent.

Let us assume that per-chip, Drake’s costs are in line with T210.

Let us assume that Nintendo’s initial planned purchase of Drake is in-line with their initial purchase of Mariko

That would put us in the ~$150 million mark.
 
oldpuck said:

Fermi problem - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Let us assume that Nintendo’s contractual costs for killing the project are designed to make NVidia whole.

Let us assume that, because Orin AGX is in production, that Drakes production is active or imminent.

Let us assume that per-chip, Drake’s costs are in line with T210.

Let us assume that Nintendo’s initial planned purchase of Drake is in-line with their initial purchase of Mariko

That would put us in the ~$150 million mark.
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That's a lot, but still almost pocket change for Nintendo. Not that it will happen, but I have been meming in the discord channel that the succ will come out in 2028, why? Because people keep saying that the Switch is still selling too well for a successor, and if we go for this projection I totally pulled out of my butt:

2022: 21m
2023: 19m
2024: 18m
2025: 15m
2026: 12m
2027: 10m

They could keep it up with new colors and meaningless revisions up to 2028 if they wanted to, even Nintendo has admitted they'll have stock issues (probably for holiday sales) and that affects their potential sales. But we know future hardware doesn't get delayed just because it's predecessor keeps selling outside of anyone's expectations. I wonder if any of those in the "it's selling so well a succ isn't needed" camp would realistically believe this could last until 2028? Some might as the GB did last 11-12 years, but I doubt that will ever happen again.
 
So, a slightly interesting discovery that I’ve made but it isn’t surprising. While Intel has yet to release a desktop GPU and those have been delayed, they are still using the foundries for the mobile iGPUs that they manufacture of TSMC and have what looks like an MCM set up for the laptops.



That means that, while they delayed one product, they didn’t lose fab space because they released another product that is using that fab space.

This is sorta related to this topic, but it’s on topic of delaying it that is brought up.
 
That's Meteor Lake, which is suspected to be using N3 for the iGPU tile.
For Alchemist on N6, they have started producing mobile Alchemist cards at least for release in mainland China.

Speaking of Locuza's tweets...
I've been looking at this one:


I'm trying to review the process in my mind.
Internal render of a resolution X, output same resolution X -> you're working with assets sized for resolution X the entire way.
But what about when upscaling comes into play?
Internal render of resolution X, output higher resolution Y. What's the breakdown of the time spent working with data sized for resolution X versus data sized for resolution Y? I'm trying to get a better grasp of 'cache of size A helps more here but not as much there'.
 
Look over there said:
I'm trying to review the process in my mind.
Internal render of a resolution X, output same resolution X -> you're working with assets sized for resolution X the entire way.
But what about when upscaling comes into play?
Internal render of resolution X, output higher resolution Y. What's the breakdown of the time spent working with data sized for resolution X versus data sized for resolution Y? I'm trying to get a better grasp of 'cache of size A helps more here but not as much there'.
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Depends on the upscaling algorithm. The Facebook paper suggests that step one is projecting the low res frame to the target res, and that all processing happens on that projected frame.

But the size of the asset doesn't equal the size of the working set, algorithmically, and even if the entire working set fits in cache, you can still get zero hits on cache if your algorithm never needs to touch the same piece of data twice.
 
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Dakhil said:

Intel 4 Process Scales Logic with Design, Materials, and EUV

The Intel 4 process achieves 20% better performance and scales logic density by 2X while reducing costs through extensive design co-optimization, adoption of new materials, and judicious use of EUV lithography. The first product, the Meteor Lake compute tile, will ramp to high volume...
www.realworldtech.com www.realworldtech.com
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But how does this affect Boca Juniors?

On topic, reading the first and last page, Intel 4 seems to be focused on testing new manufacturing(?) technologies for high-volume specific-function chips (like Meteor Lake’s compute tile). Then Intel 3 will scale up for a more general market. Seems kinda similar to their Tick-Tock model from before.
 
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I'm genuinely curious. What does Intel have to do with the switch successor?

Edit: oh I see. I think I understand this:

That means that, while they delayed one product, they didn’t lose fab space because they released another product that is using that fab space.

This is sorta related to this topic, but it’s on topic of delaying it that is brought up.
 
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I’m holding out slim hope that some article or something drops as we approach the 28/29th Direct. For example, on the off chance maybe there’s some early 2023 third party games that show up that end up being particularly important later. I know it won’t, though.
 
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I’m down and I have the funds available. If Nintendo wants to announce the “4K” switch at the end of the month for a fall release I’m good. I actually love the OLED model. I woukd want the extra tech just so we can get more games on the platform. Personally could care less about 4K I’m a handheld switch gamer for the most part. Only play on tv in local multiplayer like the newly released battle league.
 
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ITSMILNER said:
How comes he still hasn’t done it? He mentioned doing it back in Feb didn’t he?
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Nate mentioned planning to do a podcast that summarized all the data so far, laying it all out. I don't think he particularly wanted to, but felt he had to.

He delayed that podcast because of a lead that was potentially new information, but that he couldn't confirm or deny from a second credible source.

Nate has since summarized and said that basically, everything he's said journalistically before remains true, and that while there might more technical speculation on clock speed or particulars of the implementation, they don't interest him, and don't come through from his sources, but instead speculation and the NVN2 hack, which didn't change any of the thoughts he's said before.

In short: "Because nothing has changed"
 
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I think that if Nintendo really had plans to announce a 4k console or an update at the end of june, we would have already known from some rumor / leak from insiders.
 
Mirev said:
I think that if Nintendo really had plans to announce a 4k console or an update at the end of june, we would have already known from some rumor / leak from insiders.
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If it was planned for release in October/November, we would know about it by now. There would be a lot of smoke because actual production would be starting up.

There's just nothing though.

I'm even starting to become skeptical of a spring 2023 release.
 
I do hope we get one next year, Switch is my most played console and having one with more power to ensure continued 3rd party support is a must.
 
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Sol said:
If it was planned for release in October/November, we would know about it by now. There would be a lot of smoke because actual production would be starting up.

There's just nothing though.

I'm even starting to become skeptical of a spring 2023 release.
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About this I'm still hoping. Just because two factors:
1. We will get a Mario movie;
2. We will get Tloz: Botw2
(3. We could get a new Mario game at the end of 2023)

So 2023 seems a BIG year to launch a new console.
 
Sol said:
If it was planned for release in October/November, we would know about it by now. There would be a lot of smoke because actual production would be starting up.

There's just nothing though.

I'm even starting to become skeptical of a spring 2023 release.
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Just FYI, we usually do not get leaks like this. I think we were kinda spoiled in 2019 and 2021 by how leaky the factory stuff was but that is in no way the norm especially for Nintendo.

No idea when this is launching but lack of leaks doesn't say much.
 
It also is important to remember that we were 'spoiled' during the NX arc because Nintendo had to make sure people knew a new Nintendo console were coming and that it was going to be big so it got announced quite a while before release date.
 
I'm planning to go all digital so I think I'll wait until the next Switch to see what kind of external memory cards they will support,. Until then, I think I'll put a pause on playing Switch games after I've finished SMTV. I think Elden Ring should keep me busy since that's a massive game for someone like me. If the next Switch is coming out in the first half of 2023 then it should be only be a few more months of wait for an announcement.
 
Rogue Agent said:
I'm planning to go all digital so I think I'll wait until the next Switch to see what kind of external memory cards they will support.
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At the very least, I imagine microSD cards are still going to be supported for Nintendo Switch games.

I don't know about for games exclusive to new hardware. Maybe UFS cards?
 
Dakhil said:
At the very least, I imagine microSD cards are still going to be supported for Nintendo Switch games.

I don't know about for games exclusive to new hardware. Maybe UFS cards?
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But that would mean that the new hardware has to support both microSD and the new memory format. It could be done but I’m not so sure about it.
Maybe if they use a multi-format reader like some laptops.
 
Dakhil said:
At the very least, I imagine microSD cards are still going to be supported for Nintendo Switch games.

I don't know about for games exclusive to new hardware. Maybe UFS cards?
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Yeah hopefully. I hope it's something better than the current Switch, if that's possible. I'm planning to buy the fastest card the new Switch will support and just store most of my games there.
 
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Falcatops said:
But that would mean that the new hardware has to support both microSD and the new memory format. It could be done but I’m not so sure about it.
Maybe if they use a multi-format reader like some laptops.
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Having hardware that supports microSD and UFS cards via one combo socket is theoretically possible.
Soft Migration From SD Card to UFS Card
Even though the SD card I/O architecture and performance seems to be very poor in nowadays technical point of view, SD cards are found in today's most mobile IT products. Therefore, from the moment the UFS card was designed, soft migration from the SD card to the UFS card needed to be considered. To support the migration, the overall outer dimension of the UFS card is determined to support a combo socket for both microSD card and UFS card. To avoid any electrical problem with the signal pins of the microSD card, the first row is left empty except VCC and GND, and the second row is used for the signal pins on the UFS card.

Therefore, a host device can support both a microSD card and a UFS card using just one combo slot for a soft migration from microSD card to UFS card. The reference combo socket is standardized in JEDEC as a Socket Mechanical Outline specification (SO-022A). Amphenol provides a combo socket that implements the SO-022A JEDEC standard.
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Samsung mentioned working with other companies on developing a UFS card and microSD combo socket. However, only up to UFS Card 1.0 is supported; and I don't know if there's currently any hardware with a UFS card and microSD combo socket. But at the very least, theoretically speaking, the work has already been done.
 
Raccoon said:
I agree
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On the flip side, NDAs. Yeh?

And somebody pointed out Emily and Bloomberg only posted their article leaking what was eventually the OLED a couple weeks before the reveal.

And also, I still mostly agree with you both. Just being hopeful
 
karmitt said:
On the flip side, NDAs. Yeh?

And somebody pointed out Emily and Bloomberg only posted their article leaking what was eventually the OLED a couple weeks before the reveal.

And also, I still mostly agree with you both. Just being hopeful
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We neither got any Leaks from the OLED version, and it was a sudden drop not even the insiders saw it coming.

Just wait, if its a Holiday 2022 product, they will announce it very soon. There are no leaks since these companies like Sony, Nintendo, AMD and Nvidia have tighten up security to a level that you dont have a chance besides the already known because of Devkits…
 
I think Nintendo feels like they can squeeze one last holiday from the current Switch and would also like to pair Drake with a strong launch title (botw2). I'm also starting to feel like March-ish 23 is the more likely now.
 
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