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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
probably talking about that TCL slide. they definitely don't know anything though
OP
OP
There was also the PlayStation 5 Pro rumours from RedGamingTech, although what RedGamingTech said should be taken with a grain of salt.
Mr Swine
Like Like
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I wouldn’t be so sure about that. It’s probably a bit lower than 99% but the main problem is that is not a “plug and play” console.
You need to tinker with it which probably a turn off for most people. Unless all of ‘‘em are PC players
Blue Monty
Inkling
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No Retail presence and having to wait months to get it is a bigger issue imo
brainchild
Moblin
You can think of the model as a way for the neural network to make sense of the inputs. The learning happens offline, but the knowledge acquired from that learning needs to be in-game in order to make use of it. You don't necessarily need tensor cores to take advantage of machine learning, but if the speed at which the model (core knowledge) needs to be referenced is of utmost importance then accelerating that process with tensor math is typically beneficial, even if unnecessary.
I can think of a few use cases for tensor cores in conjunction with InstructGPT AI models.
One thing that has proven to be especially challenging for me right now is getting the non-playable characters to adapt their language responses to the context within the environment. The natural language processing is good, but in real-life, we adjust how we speak based on the context of our environment/circumstances and it is really hard to get the NPCs to do this procedurally in a convincing way. Building a model that can classify environmental context, context based on conversation, and circumstantial context, and then using tensor cores to refer to the model based on the inputs that the NPCs "sense" via raycasting or scanning tags from the environment/conversation/story is something that would be much more practical if it was accelerated in real-time.
Also, lots of physics and collision detection models could benefit from the use of tensor cores, if smartly implemented.
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ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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I don’t really know what purpose this comment is serving or aimed at, maybe I missed a post?
FWIW, 98.8% of the population don’t know what a switch is either or haven’t bothered to look into getting one really.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
Switch is over 5 years old and there hasn't been much evidence to suggest new hardware anytime soon.
With high sales, Covid-19, manufacturing woes, Nintendo seems desired to ride it out and keep the Switch around for much longer then their previous console generations. Sure you could site rumors of devkits, back panels, NVN2 found in Nvidia code for a new chip, etc but none of this means anything to me since we've been discussing a Switch Pro since 2019.
Anyways just responding to your question. Of course I would love to be wrong and tomorrow a Switch Ultra Max 4000K gets announced.
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So you're basically saying there is no indication of any hardware coming soon and you're acknowledging that there are a large number of rumors saying exactly this but you're ignoring it because of a completely different rumor that was around 3 years ago.Switch is over 5 years old and there hasn't been much evidence to suggest new hardware anytime soon.
With high sales, Covid-19, manufacturing woes, Nintendo seems desired to ride it out and keep the Switch around for much longer then their previous console generations. Sure you could site rumors of devkits, back panels, NVN2 found in Nvidia code for a new chip, etc but none of this means anything to me since we've been discussing a Switch Pro since 2019.
Anyways just responding to your question. Of course I would love to be wrong and tomorrow a Switch Ultra Max 4000K gets announced.
Just to clarify.
Blue Monty
Inkling
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Was in 2019 ever such strong evidence as now? I don’t remember anything other than some news sites saying they have got information about a Pro coming, now we have developers with kits and Nvidia leak
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2019 was simply factory sources hearing about Mariko. And then various intermediates like Mochizuki assuming that a more powerful chip would mean a more powerful console, which isn't exactly much of a stretch.
In fact I'm pretty sure he never actually claimed it would be more powerful, just that it would have some features geared towards enthusiasts or something. I'm guessing he did indeed think it would be clocked higher but wanted to keep that part vague since he didn't know for sure.
There wasn't no.The only evidence that might've pointed to something tangible didn't appear until the bloomberg stuff in 2020.Anything previous to that was mostly I can only assume just coping fanboys upset the switch isn't more powerful.It had about as much evidence going for it in 2019 as that mythical hd rerelease of metroid prime trilogy which has supposedlty been finished since 2018.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
It is kinda crazy how few of people play games compared whole earth population, you think it would be a lot more
Kevin
Chain Chomp
YES. Exactly correct. There is ALWAYS rumors and pieces. Just like Bloomberg citing a 4K Switch was inbound and then we found out that we got the Switch OLED that just so happened to have a 4K HDMI chipset since it likely cost Nintendo less then the old 1080p chip. I won't be surprised if the new back is either fake story or for a new OLED Lite model. The evidence pool is inconclusive in my personal opinion. We have has a drip feed of evidence for 4 years now and none of it materializes into anything. I mean of course Nintendo has new hardware and I mean it's absolutely possible a 2023 launch could happen. My personal guess as it stands today is maybe a 2024 launch but it's not like I know anything you guys don't.
I certainly don't know when new hardware is coming anytime soon but the Switch is still selling extremely well and still breaking records even on top of how companies like Sony can't even get PS5s on the market. Nintendo probably wants to avoid launching a brand new system and have it not be able to actually sell and gain momentum. If I was Nintendo, from a business standpoint I would just hold off on new hardware until the Switch started really tanking in sales and consumer interest in software for it. The alternative looks worse. A Switch 2 that can't move the numbers because they can't make enough to go around. Nintendo knows that new hardware means more expensive game development (look how badly Microsoft and now Sony is doing with game development, nothing on the release schedule for this year so far). Nintendo wants to avoid this stuff as long as they can.
At the end of the day, I personally hope I'm wrong. I want better hardware. The Switch has just been super disappointing for me with such dated hardware and really not a lot of good single player games as of lately (lots of online, sport, RTS, casual, etc games which don't appeal to me personally) so I've been focusing on games elsewhere. Will pick up Xenoblade 3 of course and Zelda next year and I'm hoping the summer game stuff will bring new game announcements as well. A Switch 2 or Pro would be something that I would appreciate and it kind of sucks that we are this far into the Nintendo Switch lifespan and there doesn't appear to be any significant evidence of new hardware being imminent.
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What are you talking about here? What 4k HDMI chipset does the OLED model have? I've never heard anything like this...
This is factually incorrect. All of the 2019 rumors were about an actual tangible product undergoing production, that turned out to be the Mariko chip which went into the Switch Lite and V2. Since then we have not had any rumors which pointed to a specific time frame that has passed. You're simply impatient, there's absolutely nothing that hasn't "materialized".
You're the one who made the outrageous claim that Nintendo doesn't want to budge on hardware, which is what I called out. If something is coming in 2023 or 2024 (or hell, 2022 which is still very much on the table) then the idea that they aren't "budging on new hardware" is ludicrous.
This is not a question of whether we want it or not or whether their sales are still good or whether they'll be able to stock it.
All I asked is what you based this on:
There is literally zero evidence suggesting they don't want to "budge". Tons of evidence to the contrary but if you want to ignore all that then you do you.
Dekuman
Kremling
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Bloomberg's rumors were correct, the conclusions we and rumormongers arrived at (in 2019) were incorrect because we assumed a more efficient chip was going to be overclocked.
Even the OLED (2021) reporting was right. The only pieces that haven't panned out was devs with new devkits and maybe the 4K chip in the dock. That could either be speaking to the new chip in the OLED dock or about the next device.
People act like everything rumored so far have been incorrect, if a forum poster had Mochi's track record they would be a legend, but because Nintendo didn't produce a pro console despite having released 2 revisions (3 if you count the Lite) so far which was reported ahead of time and we drew the wrong conclusions somehow the onus is on him and it's ok to pretend nothing is coming out.
The leaps of logic is astounding. And I suspect when the successor is announced, suddenly it's a clean slate, no one saw that coming!
Kevin
Chain Chomp
It was reported that the HDMI port on the Switch OLED can take a 4K signal. This was back during the release of the Switch OLED. I read it here as there were sources. It was assumed at the time that perhaps Bloomberg saw the code for this and not an actual 4K Switch but who knows. I'm not Bloomberg.
You also mentioned that the rumors were all correct but were NOT for a 4K Switch so why wouldn't that apply to stuff we are seeing now then such as the backplate rumor? What happens if later this year we get a Switch OLED Lite instead of a Switch 4K? I mean at some point this becomes tired. We're all waiting for a 4K Switch, we're all spending all day looking at the evidence and the years continue on. That's all I'm saying. Eventually it will happen but I'm not inclined to believe it's super soon.
To clarify I think Nintendo is trying to hold off as long as they can before releasing new hardware. That is what I meant on not budging. They will eventually be in a position where it will certainly make sense and even be necessary but I'm not sure Nintendo feels it's time yet. Nintendo's messaging over and over is that the Switch is a ten year system and while I don't think that translates to no new hardware until year 10, it does suggest that Nintendo wants gamers to settle in with their current hardware instead of looking forward.
Yes someday Nintendo will have new hardware. I'm personally not inclined to believe that the scraps of evidence we are seeing is proof of it happening in 2022 or even 2023 but it also doesn't rule out the possibility.
Dekuman
Kremling
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This doesn't address my post at all. You claim the rumors were incorrect which can be proven to be incorrect.
We made the wrong assumptions about the disparate pieces of data reported, but Nintendo did in fact
a) go to a new process node with a more efficient chip that could have been overclocked
b) go with Samsung on an OLED screen which could have been used in a pro-model (first reported by Bloomberg)
that's just a few of the pieces he reported.
That people came to the wrong conclusions wasn't his fault. No one has the full picture with these leaks, and his sources were mostly at the supplier level.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
The rumors have always been incorrect when discussing a 4K Switch. That is my message. We see all these rumors and bits of information and apply it to a "4K Switch must be coming soon" and either the rumors are for an entirely different product or just that, rumors that lead to nothing.
Dekuman
Kremling
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Yes because the 4K Switch hasn't released yet so the jury is out on that, but everything else they reported on lines up.
If the choice is either that a) he is bullshitting because the 4K stuff didn't happen yet but somehow reporting on the Samsung OLED /new dock/new revision was oddly specific and correct. b) he is likely reporting on two devices but didn't know it because his sources didn't have a unified picture
I'd go with B.
- Pronouns
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You're thinking of the USB C port I think. I don't believe it was confirmed that it can now pass a 4k60fps signal, but the HDMI port on the dock I believe can handle that and has always been able to.
I did no such thing.
Then that's a you problem. I don't personally care if you or others are tired of waiting for something, I tend to follow what the available evidence says.
And like I've asked a few times, what evidence is there to support this theory? Nintendo has not once mentioned or implied that they plan to wait until sales die down before releasing something more powerful.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
In my opinion the evidence that Nintendo is in no hurry to release new hardware has always been the fact that there has been zero hints from Nintendo regarding new hardware along with their constant reminding us that the Switch is a ten year platform. I never got the impression at all that Nintendo is ready to move on from what is possibly their most successful platform of all time. They seem like they very much intend to continue supporting the Switch for a long time yet. I just don't see the "Switch 4K is near" evidence at all.
Look we disagree on this and that's fine. Honestly I have nothing against you or anyone else who shares a difference in opinion. I mean that's why we are all here, to bounce around opinions, ideas and thoughts on these subjects. I think we both can agree on one thing; We both want new hardware and hope that it's coming sooner then later. So I hope you're right if you think new 4K hardware is coming very soon. Don't want to do this again this time next year lol. So I hope you don't hold my opinions against me as that would be unfortunate. At the end of the day, we're all fans just looking towards the future.
The oled dock is technically 4k capable. Just not enabled.
There will be good and bad dlss implementations, and not every game will use dlss.
The chip should be very capable even without it, so if your game looks great on a 4k panel without it why bother.
Maybe the tensor cores are busy doing other ML tasks, if the game is trying to do something unique.
Maybe the dev just didn’t prioritize it.
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There never, absolutely never is. Why is it different now?
One does not preclude the other. Switch can and likely will be a 10+ year platform, that has zero bearing on whether or when they plan to release new hardware.
Personally I don't really care about new hardware for me, I'm not really picky at all about graphics or framerate. I'm mainly interested in this primarily because this side of the industry is fascinating to me.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
Look I gave my opinion. I don't feel there is enough evidence to suggest new hardware within the next year. I obviously don't know Nintendo's plans. Everything on here is an opinion. It's just my opinion when I talk about not being convinced by the rumors, speculation and bits of evidence we have. It's not enough for me to claim that we will all be playing 4K hardware within the next 12 months. Could it happen? Sure it's a possibility but I remain unconvinced. That is all I have left to say on this for now. There just isn't much here to speculate on one way or another.
So how about we change it up. What would you like to see with new hardware in terms of features, specs, games? What is your dream Switch 2/4K look like? This is a question for everyone here. What do all of you want to see with the next hardware?
folks are reporting that the latest DLL fixes the issue. regardless, it means nothing because games can be good or bad with temporal solutions. you'll see this with FSR, TSR, etc
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I took your "Nintendo ain't wanting to budge on new hardware as more then an opinion, but if that's all you meant then I'll drop it.
Cpu and memory specs, process node, clock speeds and storage speed.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
Everything I posted was an opinion and speculation. I don't actually know what Nintendo's plans are. It was simply an educated guess and nothing more. All of my comments in this thread is basically just me guessing. That's all I feel like we can really do here at this time with what little we know.
My guess is there is a 50/50 chance that the next hardware will come in 2023. I think if Nintendo launches new hardware, they would absolutely do it along the next Zelda game in the Spring. Would be a bit weird in my opinion to launch new hardware in the fall with Zelda being for regular Switch. That would be the kind of title you would likely want to launch alongside new hardware. So I'm thinking they either launch new hardware in Spring of 2023 or they really are targeting 2024 or beyond. Still this is all just a guess on my end.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
Which will pay dividends over the next ~4 years. And beyond.
Simply put, Nintendo Switch software will sell tons more the next 4 years with Drake existing than if it didn’t.
I argue that the OLED revision invigorated Switch gaming the past year, and sparked gamer engagement. Personally, I was slowing down on my Switch purchasing and gaming on the “aging” hardware. I got an OLED and I bought and played a few games since then cause the new screen intrigued me.
The Drake model will keep millions of gamers engaged in new Nintendo releases for year where they would have otherwise become more apathetic towards most releases the second half of the Switch lifecycle.
The R&D is totally worth that investment for this alone. It’s also worth it for Nintendo to get a foothold into DLSS/RT usage for future systems.
Why? If most of their software output will be playable on any model, they don’t care which model sells better.
Drake existing is to make sure there is an option for the segment of gamers who need new hardware to keep engaged in an ecosystem late in its lifecycle.
Getting Kingdom Hearts 1&2 HD cloud streaming only on the current Switch…that could easily handle the native versions…makes me skeptical why certain games won’t still be streamed on Switch even after Drake releases.
Is it massive? Is it?
I’m saying Witcher 3 being ported to Switch in a year with a small team means almost every Xbox one release could have been ported to the Switch.
It’s not the time/effort/money that scares publishers away from native Switch ports. It’s the expected demand not being enough to warrant it.
I think whatever hardware that comes out in 2026/2027 will be meant to replace the current Switches, even Drake.
I also think you will be shocked how not much different Drake 3rd party support will be compared to what we’ve seen the last 4 years.
daase ko
Octorok
That's why I wonder what will be the state of dlss on switch. I guess on pc it's a nice and a still rare option so you can have quirks but if it's a key element of drake, I feel like you wouldn't ship a game with that kind of visual problems.
Then if it's really easily fixed and not even by the game devs, that's a good point. I have the latest dll, I'll try it on hitman.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
It’s probably semantics at this point, how they treat specific software.
I’m just saying Nitnendo won’t position Drake as a gen break successor Switch 2 type thing.
Eh, Bloomberg cited 11 different sources (developers)
So, if you are counting that story as ONE source, you are essentially discounting what they are reporting.
You either believe they know of 11 different developers have dev kits, or you think they are wrong/making it up.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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because they’re hurt by July 6, 2021.
The switch 2 would have the benefit of being a tailored platform in which these visuals can be tweaked and altered to give the best visual presentation.
If a dev actually has that desire that is.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
Because great things will happen in 2024. I can see the future.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
because Nintendo is still selling pretty well and they think 7 year cycles are the norm for consoles before the release of a successor. I don't want to say ironically, but Nitnendo consoles have been an exception to this. All Nintendo consoles have been in the market for 6 years or less before their successor came out. If you wanna count handhelds, then the NDS is the exception (2004 before 2011 3DS release).
Anyway, I want to bring something else up.. If the Switch successor does indeed come out in the next 6-12 months, and it turns out to be the 12SM (~3 TFLOPs) GPU and A78 CPU system with 12GB LPDDR5 RAM (102 GB/s bandwidth) on a 5nm TSMC node, priced at $399, could Nintendo actually make profit from it? This is also assuming they have all of Switch's tech as well. I have a hard time believing they will, even with the steep discounts from Nvidia because the tech is a lot newer than switch's TX1 chip when Switch came out. What if they offered two skus.. one with 64-128GB storage at $399 and 256GB at $449-499 to offset the costs? Of course software will make up for it.
But can Nintendo really turn a profit or break even on "relatively" bleeding edge ampere +/orion hardware on a 5nm mode at $400 in 2023?
Hell an 8nm Samsung seems about right, and while 5nm TSMC is getting mature, it's going to cost more than 8nm Samsung regardless.I think we've come to a consensus that 12SM Drake is almost impossible on a 7nm or 8nm Samsung mode...
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ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Duplicate post. Sorry.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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What I can summarize:
“They want a longer life cycle”
They can continue to support the switch, no one said drop the OG switch but nice assumption that you think that they’ll just drop the switch. PS4 is still being supported with first party software.
“There’s a chip shortage”
And no one has stopped releasing a new product, next.
“They should stockpile it for at least a year”
Literally no one does this but go off I guess
“Nintendo doesn’t do powerful consoles!”
No one said they will, try again.
“This could be for anyone else”
And the only company that has used an API by the name NVN is Nintendo, what are the chances of someone else using this API? Please actually try. There’s literally references to NVN in the NVN2 hack, so next caller!
“The switch is still selling so well”
And hardware isn’t planned by if it’s selling well, it’s planned ahead regardless if it’s selling like crap or selling gangbusters. Please keep up.
Or do you actually think they make a product a year before a product releases? Please, we know you don’t.
“March 2024 makes sense”
According to who? To you? Literally irrelevant, there’s nothing that indicates that 2024 makes sense except your feelings, which like I said are irrelevant.
“There hasn’t even been specs leaked!”
You literally doubted a bunch of other specs that were accurate how is this any different lol, choose your battles.
“I just got an OLED, I don’t want to feel cheaped out yet”
Ok? Then stay with your model.
“It’ll be released when it’s ready”
It’s this, it’s literally just this. Every other excuse people keep coming up With in this thread about the existence, the timings, etc are so meaningless and are reading tea leaves.
You could get a monkey scratching it’s butt and people will say “oh it’s for this date (2022 or 2025)” when it’s literally just “when it’s ready it’ll release”
Considering it’s 12SMs, 8nm could be noticeably more expensive per die
“They want a longer life cycle”
They can continue to support the switch, no one said drop the OG switch but nice assumption that you think that they’ll just drop the switch. PS4 is still being supported with first party software.
“There’s a chip shortage”
And no one has stopped releasing a new product, next.
“They should stockpile it for at least a year”
Literally no one does this but go off I guess
“Nintendo doesn’t do powerful consoles!”
No one said they will, try again.
“This could be for anyone else”
And the only company that has used an API by the name NVN is Nintendo, what are the chances of someone else using this API? Please actually try. There’s literally references to NVN in the NVN2 hack, so next caller!
“The switch is still selling so well”
And hardware isn’t planned by if it’s selling well, it’s planned ahead regardless if it’s selling like crap or selling gangbusters. Please keep up.
Or do you actually think they make a product a year before a product releases? Please, we know you don’t.
“March 2024 makes sense”
According to who? To you? Literally irrelevant, there’s nothing that indicates that 2024 makes sense except your feelings, which like I said are irrelevant.
“There hasn’t even been specs leaked!”
You literally doubted a bunch of other specs that were accurate how is this any different lol, choose your battles.
“I just got an OLED, I don’t want to feel cheaped out yet”
Ok? Then stay with your model.
“It’ll be released when it’s ready”
It’s this, it’s literally just this. Every other excuse people keep coming up With in this thread about the existence, the timings, etc are so meaningless and are reading tea leaves.
You could get a monkey scratching it’s butt and people will say “oh it’s for this date (2022 or 2025)” when it’s literally just “when it’s ready it’ll release”
No it’s not.
Considering it’s 12SMs, 8nm could be noticeably more expensive per die
daase ko
Octorok
It's been a long time we haven't seen this one, it was so recurrent at that.
I'm glad.
Blue Monty
Inkling
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I think most people don't understand how much it would cost (and the risks that come with it) to do so and how useless is to do it, that's why it's such a common take
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
12SMs on an 8nm die likely won't happen/wouldn't be feasible in the first place, because it would be too big. Before that leak happened I believe we were thinking 6-8SMs on 8nm Samsung. If Orion NX and AGX are indeed 8nm Samsung, we already know how crazy expensive the dev kits are, and something custom like Drake on a smaller node won't exactly be cheap I imagine.. Especially being TSMC and them supposedly increasing price costs of their chips.
I admit it's a very specific scenario. But 12SMs on anything but a 5nm TSMC node seems.. low.
don't think you can use a game's state on PC to judge how a console would handle things. we're seeing, damn near all the time now, PC versions having issues that don't exist on consoles. stuff like compilation stuttering and whatnot. games that will be tailored to the console will have stuff like ghosting bugs sorted out.
or they could also not. but PC wouldn't tell us that
Look over there
Bob-omb
Just to add on to your point of this sort of thing being everywhere, I'm reminded of it bleeding over into CPU space too. On Intel's side, with AVX-512 being fused off the consumer Alder Lake SKUs, they still added support for 256 bit versions of AVX-VNNI instructions (for the readers, Vector Neural Network Instructions) to both the Golden Cove and Gracemont cores. On AMD's side, in their presentation at Computex earlier this week, one of the selling points for Zen 4 is 'expanded instructions - AI Acceleration'. In a later interview at TechPowerUp, AMD's Robert Hallock confirmed "AVX 512 VNNI for neural networking and AVX 512 BLOAT16 for inferencing."
Actually, one more thing came to mind; Intel's recently started including a GNA (Gaussian & Neural Accelerator) in their CPUs. I'm digging through Intel Ark for this one; looks like GNA 1.0 was included in the Ice Lake laptops, 2.0 in Rocket Lake desktops/Tiger Lake laptops, and 3.0 in Alder Lake.
So yea, AI acceleration related hardware and instructions are only going to get more and more widespread/necessary.
LiC
Member
The price of a devkit is useless as a point of comparison for anything to do with manufacturing or MSRP of the eventual console that will use T239. The original Jetson TX1 devkit sold for $600 in 2015; the TX1 Shield TV that launched that same year cost $200, and the Switch cost $300 two years later. The Orin devkit line has models from $400 up to $2000, and none of them have the same configuration as T239, and none of them are comparable anyway because they all include many more components for different purposes that a game console doesn't have, and development hardware prices are never equivalent to retail prices because they aren't produced at the same scale among other reasons.
Man, I really need to force myself to stop reading all manufacturing speculation posts.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
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