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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Biggest thing people need to remember about pricing: It depends how Nintendo approaches. Do they want to profit it from day one or do they expect the software sales and licensing fees from third parties to make up lost sales per unit? Historically, most console manufacturers often rely on the latter to make up for lost revenue on sales of the consoles.

I'd be a little shocked if Nintendo tried to push higher than $400 USD.
 
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I think regardless of marketing I can see how Nintendo could move forward with their unified platform strategy.

So the new model releases and reuses a bunch of OLED model components. Dock, shell, kickstand etc are the same for the new switch model. They drop the V2 and price drop the OLED on the release of the new model so they end up with.

$200 - Switch lite.
$300 - OLED model.
$400 - Switch Enthusiast Model.

This satisfies the need for multiple price points for entry into the ecosystem. Support for OLED for switch first party games continues until the next generation beyond Ampere launches, or maybe just before that point.

Maybe a couple years after the enthusiast model launches, Nintendo offers an enthusiast lite model for roughly the same price as the OLED so consumers have a chance to play the exclusive third party games at a lower price point. Soon after the OLED model is dropped.

Another few years pass and another new gen device launches and both the enthusiast lite and enthusiast device receive a price cut.

Gives Nintendo a way to adjust its target price point over time too and maintain a constant and large user base.

In terms of Nintendo gimmicks, I think this will be done using optional accessories and software innovation at this point. For example, optional AR or dual screen gaming via wireless streaming to a mobile display that can be purchased separately.

Edit: Just thought of a cool gimmick for AR actually. Imagine having a phone clip for the joy con's or pro controller and when you switch to iron sights or scope on an FPS the scope appears on your phone screen and the phones camera captures the TV in the background and you fine aim using gyro and phone display.
 
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Oh, sorry, I was referring to the “tons of exclusives” comment.

I’m not doubting there will be exclusives made for it, of course there will.

I doubt many publishers will focus on tons of “Switch pro only” versions of their games when they decide to spend the effort to make a switch game.
There will definitely be plenty of exclusives. This device will almost certainly get its own full generational cycle.
 
Ps5 is a clean generational break compared to Ps4, yes. They even launched it explicitly saying it’s a generational break “we believe in it!” :p

Don’t forget, they stopped manufacturing their 2016 pro model before the ps5 even launched. The plan was to stop producing ALL ps4 models by the end of last year.

Sony’s “commitment” to cross gen games for 2 years or so is more out of worry concerning software tie ratio for the ps5 right now than anything

Nintendo does not plan on ending all Switch model production within a year or two after this new model releases. Nintendo does not want this ~$500 pro model to be the only price point option going forward. Nintendo does not plan on focusing all its game development to be Pro model only by 2024. Nintendo does not plan to stop having new games running on the OLED model by 2024.

Nintendo does not want to release a new model this year that will be considered a generational break from the Switch.

Switch 2 would imply to console consumers that they are planning on phasing out the OLED model they just released last year. I don’t think doing that makes sense at all, imo.

They will want to market this model as simply a way to play the Switch library games better…for those who want that kind of thing. And they will try to name it accordingly how it does this.

They are absolutely not releasing this and expecting everyone, or even the majority, to have moved over to this expensive model after 2 years.
I think the biggest flaw in the arguments is that people have been using Sony/the Playstation brand as a measuring stick as to what constitutes "Generational clean breaks".

The Game Boy Color is technically a "Generational clean break" from the original Game Boy, which, apart from having a color TFT panel, also had an upgraded RAM and double the clock rate of the original, which actually gave it enough juice to do some simple FMVs and provided a more leeway for developers. It featured a ton of exclusive GBC games yet thanks to Pokemon and a couple of other late GameBoy titles there were still regular GameBoy games being made, to the point that there came a subset of "Dual Mode" DX cartidges which were base-GameBoy titles that had GBC specific features unlocked when played on the corresponding system. This included the color dungeons in Zelda: Link's Awakening DX and special modes found like in R-Type DX. The GBC lasted for quite a while before the GameBoy Advanced showed up, enough at least that GBC-only titles then became the norm (that's not even getting into crosss-generational GBC titles with GBA Enhancements, such as Shantae).

Should a "Super Nintendo Switch" ever manifest, I would expect it follow the mold of the GameBoy Color in having cross-compatibility with base-Switch titles. 3rd party developers will no doubt probably want to have "Super" versions of their games ready, and should the development effort prove prohibitive, make them "Super Exclusive" titles. Meanwhile, others that do not require the added horsepower, or have games that have been in development for base-Switch for some time, can opt for a cross-generational "Dual Mode" title that will will come with "Super" enhancements ("Super Enhanced"). Likely this could take advantage of the aforementioned DLSS features touted to be in this successor. Likewise, past game can easily get "Super Enhanced" patches if implementation is easy, which would probably rejuvinate some sales of older titles.

Overall, it's not hard to concurrently support a generational transition: There will most likely still be base-Switch titles (with newer ones coming with "Super Enhancements") but you can bet there will be a bevy of "Super Exclusives" just to make development and gaining publisher deals easier.
 
I'm saying there will be no Nintendo games announced anytime soon that need this hardware. Maybe in 2024-2025.

I'm not saying they'll literally say "you don't need this to play new Nintendo games", I'm just referring to how it will be positioned. Mainly as a way to play upgraded games and some third party games not on Switch.
So they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars to engineer this hardware, far beyond the investment in the Lite and OLED models, just to sell it to... who? The hardest of hardcore gamers who give enough of a damn about uprezzed 60fps Switch games to shell out the $450+ folks seem to think it will sell for?
We already have the numbers to show the highest an iterative revision can sell is ~20% of total hardware sales in a given year (OLED model only accounts for 16.7% of all Switch sales in the fiscal quarter it launched in, for example). So, even if we consider all sales of a device marketed as an iterative revision to be on top of the 23 million they're expecting to sell this fiscal year, the most this device would sell per year until it became the only device to play new Nintendo games is... 4.6 million. Assuming hardware sales stay where they are, of course. That's just about the worst return on investment for hardware of this scale.
Any suggestion that it will do better than every iterative revision that came before (PS4 Pro, New 3DS, DSi, et al) isn't founded in anything but hopes and wishes, so to keep considering the iterative revision idea, you'd have to assume Nintendo would be pleased to sink the kind of money necessary for engineering hardware with an SoC of this massive upgrade scale for less than 5 million units sold a year, practically Wii U sales figures when viewed on their own. Does that sound like something they'd do willingly?
 
I can't see a price tag above $399. But it wouldn't be $50 more than OLED, they would cut the price to OLED first. I suspect they'll stop manufacturing the OG model, leaving just a $299 OLED and Switch Lite.

If they release this major upgrade model at $400…then it’s releasing at only $50 more expensive than the OLED. Doesn’t matter what price cut the OLED “eventually” gets. It will have the same OLED screen, so it’s saying all that modern hardware inside this huge upgrade is only $50 more value than that thing we released last year. Does this make sense?

Ask yourself this: how come they didn’t release the OLED at $299 and cut the price of the regular hybrid to $249? However you answer that question, it applies to why this new model won’t launch at $399 and the OLED model will go done to $299.

There will definitely be plenty of exclusives. This device will almost certainly get its own full generational cycle.

I don’t agree.

By the time a next power upgrade model from Nintendo comes, the playable library of this 4K Switch model will mostly be the same as the playable library of the OLED Switch.

People who think no next gen until 2027 or so believes no new Mario Kart for 12-13 years?

I’m a guy who doesn’t see the Mario kart 8 DLC through 2023 having any impact on a new Mario Kart.

To me, Nintendo dumping every course ever onto Mario Kart 8 means the next Mario Kart entry (9?) will be a huge departure from the series in terms of design and gameplay. Probably divisive different.

I don’t see Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Ultimate…with all its modes and 96 playable tracks…and Nintendo coming in 2024 with a Mario Kart 8 clone with slightly better graphics and 16 courses and asking people to buy it.

So, I don’t think Mario Kart 8 DLC inhibits a new Mario Kart from coming anytime soon. They can cohabitate in the same space, because it will offer a different experience.

So no, I don’t believe Mario Kart 9 is being held back to release alongside a next gen console ~4-5 years from now. I bet we see it way sooner.
 
So they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars to engineer this hardware, far beyond the investment in the Lite and OLED models, just to sell it to... who? The hardest of hardcore gamers who give enough of a damn about uprezzed 60fps Switch games to shell out the $450+ folks seem to think it will sell for?
We already have the numbers to show the highest an iterative revision can sell is ~20% of total hardware sales in a given year (OLED model only accounts for 16.7% of all Switch sales in the fiscal quarter it launched in, for example). So, even if we consider all sales of a device marketed as an iterative revision to be on top of the 23 million they're expecting to sell this fiscal year, the most this device would sell per year until it became the only device to play new Nintendo games is... 4.6 million. Assuming hardware sales stay where they are, of course. That's just about the worst return on investment for hardware of this scale.
Any suggestion that it will do better than every iterative revision that came before (PS4 Pro, New 3DS, DSi, et al) isn't founded in anything but hopes and wishes, so to keep considering the iterative revision idea, you'd have to assume Nintendo would be pleased to sink the kind of money necessary for engineering hardware with an SoC of this massive upgrade scale for less than 5 million units sold a year, practically Wii U sales figures when viewed on their own. Does that sound like something they'd do willingly?

What you just argued, is probably very close to the argument Nintendo gave themselves to dismiss the idea of a Wii HD upgrade console ~2010.

Something they now lament and suggest they won’t make any such similar mistakes in the future.

The proof is in the pudding. Engagement in Switch software and services is the entire goal.

If this is the midpoint of the Switch lifecycle, as Nintendo thinks, the entire goal is to keep engagement in the Switch ecosystem high for another 4-5 years.

The money put into the R&D of this new model will accomplish that goal. The return on investments will justify its exsistence. It doesn’t have to sell more than the ps4 pro to do this.

The mistake would be to ignore the usefulness of this upgrade, and ride out the current switch as is, and watch its latter life cycle drop like a stone in its engagement…ala the Wii.

The other mistake would be to release something now that represents a generational break from an incredibly popular system that’s currently in momentum and growth…and cutting it off at the knees.

So they won’t do either of those things.

Nintendo doesn’t really care if you are playing Mario Switch 2025 on your 2019 Lite, your 2021 OLED, or your 2022 4K Switch. They really don’t.
 
Eh I could see $499. Nintendo has been pretty aggressive with pricing lately.

I cant see $499 in any case.
Also I dont see how is Nintendo pretty aggressive lately ($349 was price that Wii U Deluxe had back in 2013.),
OG Switch was selling great in any case and was not discounted from market after OLED market, so it was logical that OLED will be more expansive,
also my guess is that quite fast after this new hardware launch, OLED will get down to $299 and OG Switch will be discounted.
 
I don’t agree.

By the time a next power upgrade model from Nintendo comes, the playable library of this 4K Switch model will mostly be the same as the playable library of the OLED Switch.
That doesn't mean that said playable library won't get 4k enhancements or exclusive features.
And even with that, it will be inevitable that many developers would probably make certain games "4k Switch" exclusive to ease on development costs since they wouldn't need to spend much time optimizing for base Switch.
A fair number of titles both from 1st and 3rd party will still be developed for base hardware, but will still likely come with features to entice people to make the upgrade.
Eventually it will transition to mainly making "4k Switch" exclusive titles like late era GBC.
 
People who think no next gen until 2027 or so believes no new Mario Kart for 12-13 years?
Lol there will be a few Nintendo exclusives for it in 2024 maybe even 2023 if it releases in 2022

Imagine it just as how Sony did with ps5, a lot of games are for both ps4 and ps5 but there have been a few ps5 exclusives like demons soul, ratchet and returnal
 
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We're already seeing Nintendo's games hitting the limits of the current switch. To keep supporting Mariko once the floor has been raised so much is gonna be very difficult. This won't be a Forza Horizon 5 or a Horizon Forbidden West level of difference here. That only works when you have sufficient memory bandwidth and cpu power
 
Well, no way this new model will release at just $50 more than the OLED.

That was $350 and it only offered you a slightly better screen. And it sold well.

This thing has to be at least $450, imo. They could even get away with $500 for what it’s offering.

Since it’s not a successor, it doesn’t matter if the price tag makes buyers shy for a year or two. It’s meant to be an alternative. Nintendo will still offer various entry models into the ecosystem fro cheaper. People who really want enhanced Switch gaming will buy it.

Not a good comparison. 2ds XL released ~6.5 years after the 3ds launch…when the 3ds lifecycle well well into its declining years already.

The OLED was released ~4.5 years after the Switch launched…when the Switch lifecycle was still in upswing mode. Nintendo expects growth in its 6th year on the market.

Nintendo will probably start pulling back support of the 115 million Switches in circulation when this new model arrives…around about 2026 or so.

There is something wrong with that. Most of the active switch gamers in 2025 will still be gaming on the current models, not this new expensive one.


Of course they could easily do that. The point is it doesn’t make sense to do it. Why not just treat it as a mid gen upgrade model? What’s the downside?



Why bother keeping the next big Mario or big Zelda or big Pokémon game in 2025 off the other devices? Why not just also release version of the game there?

IMO this model will be $399 while OLED will shortly after that go to $299, while OG will be discounted.

So we would have:
  • Switch 2 - $399
  • Switch OLED - $299
  • Switch Lite - $199

That pricing sounds great, of course later we will have Switch 2 Lite, Switch 2 V2..

Nintendo always wants to have somehow more affordable price for their consoles, there is no way that next Switch hardware will be $499 in any case.



Actually is good example, point is that OLED is revision not new platform, so Nintendo can launch next gen regardless last revision,
especially because OLED will keep selling alongside new Switch 2 for 2 years at least.



Well, sooner or later Nintendo will start forcing current users to upgrade to "Switch 2" by start releasing exclusive "Pro" games, logical assumption that would be around 2 years after "Switch 2" launch.

Actually it has plenty of sense to market it like "Switch 2", clearly this is not simple stronger revision, we talking about more than hole generation upgrade, not only in term of GPU, CPU, RAM but also talking about DLSS and who knows what other new and next gen features, also while this new Switch hardware is out, Switch will around 6 years old so again makes more sense to market it like next gen Switch than simple revision.
Market it like next gen Switch launch, and you are getting much better sales and faster addoption compared to revision.

Sooner or later they will want to stop supporting older revisions and force current Switch owners to upgrade, especially because we talking about huge power/feature difference when we comparing current Switch models an this new Switch model.



I can't see a price tag above $399. But it wouldn't be $50 more than OLED, they would cut the price to OLED first. I suspect they'll stop manufacturing the OG model, leaving just a $299 OLED and Switch Lite.

Totally agree, maybe at worst case $449, but my bet is $399.
 
With the rumored tech, it could easily surpass $400 (especially when it's supposedly stronger than the Deck). Not to the point of $500, but somewhere in-between.

You can't know that, talking about Deck comparison, cheapest Deck option is $399 and has 16GB of RAM, while most people here think that new Switch will have 8GB of RAM, I am not even sure that this Nvidia T239 chip and ARM CPU would be more expansive than AMD CPU/GPU in Deck.
 
So they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars to engineer this hardware, far beyond the investment in the Lite and OLED models, just to sell it to... who? The hardest of hardcore gamers who give enough of a damn about uprezzed 60fps Switch games to shell out the $450+ folks seem to think it will sell for?
We already have the numbers to show the highest an iterative revision can sell is ~20% of total hardware sales in a given year (OLED model only accounts for 16.7% of all Switch sales in the fiscal quarter it launched in, for example). So, even if we consider all sales of a device marketed as an iterative revision to be on top of the 23 million they're expecting to sell this fiscal year, the most this device would sell per year until it became the only device to play new Nintendo games is... 4.6 million. Assuming hardware sales stay where they are, of course. That's just about the worst return on investment for hardware of this scale.
Any suggestion that it will do better than every iterative revision that came before (PS4 Pro, New 3DS, DSi, et al) isn't founded in anything but hopes and wishes, so to keep considering the iterative revision idea, you'd have to assume Nintendo would be pleased to sink the kind of money necessary for engineering hardware with an SoC of this massive upgrade scale for less than 5 million units sold a year, practically Wii U sales figures when viewed on their own. Does that sound like something they'd do willingly?
Those all happened before the pandemic, before consumer electronics were selling out at absurd rates. I have zero doubt that an enhanced Switch would sell everything they ship for the foreseeable future.

I mean, the Switch OLED model literally proves this.
I cant see $499 in any case.
Also I dont see how is Nintendo pretty aggressive lately ($349 was price that Wii U Deluxe had back in 2013.),
OG Switch was selling great in any case and was not discounted from market after OLED market, so it was logical that OLED will be more expansive,
also my guess is that quite fast after this new hardware launch, OLED will get down to $299 and OG Switch will be discounted.
I'm more referring to stuff like the OLED model, no price drops, and the price of the NSO expansion pack.
 
Can anyone comment on these? I feel like their fake (due to the 1080p display), but who knows


Nothing to really talk about here, especially in light of the specs leak. Looks like some shit anyone could have made up prior to the leak

You can't know that, talking about Deck comparison, cheapest Deck option is $399 and has 16GB of RAM, while most people here think that new Switch will have 8GB of RAM, I am not even sure that this Nvidia T239 chip and ARM CPU would be more expansive than AMD CPU/GPU in Deck.
The $400 deck is being sold as a loss and as an incentive to step up to a more expensive system. If anything, it makes a $400 Drake more likely
 
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While we're in a bit of a waiting period, Thraktor, I forgot, but were the comparisons you made with Geekbench scores between A78 and desktop Zen 2 or the 4700S?

I vaguely remember the A78 falling a bit behind in IPC, but I'm sitting here thinking it can punch up a bit in gaming specifically thanks to differences in inter-core latency due to topology, a la Skylake vs Zen 2.

To expand on the above for the readers:
Zen 2 organizes its cores into groups of 4 called Core Complexes (CCX). Within a given CCX, all 4 cores are directly linked to each other, leading to fantastic latency when a core has to communicate to another within the same CCX. However, if you need to communicate with another CCX, jumping out to IO and then into the other one adds a relatively noticeable amount of time.
For example, this chart gives us inter-core latencies for an 8 core Renoir (Zen 2, monolithic APU, which ought to be the same category as the PS5/Xbox Series CPU):
G14%20Bounce.png

The 7 nanoseconds is for two threads on the same core. 17-18 ns is for different cores, same CCX. 60's ns is for different CCXs.
Btw, desktop Zen 2 has higher inter-CCX latency by... ~20 ns maybe for the same CCD (Core Complex Die; physical piece that contains 2 CCX) due to presumably the chiplet setup increasing distances to the IO relative to monolithic. And further higher for different CCD due to increased distance and maybe another stop along the way. But, desktop Zen 2 has 16 MB of L3 cache per CCX compared to the monolithic Zen 2 APUs having 4 MB per CCX. And the Geekbench results for the 4700S report 4 MB x 2 for L3, so it's like the other Zen 2 APUs.

IIRC, while Zen 2 pulled ahead in productivity, AMD couldn't take the gaming crown yet. I personally think that Skylake was able to maintain the edge there due to better average latency (thanks to the glorious bi-directional ring bus).
Comet Lake 10900k (10 Skylake cores, so the loop is being stretched to its limits):
2%20-%2010900K%20Core-to-Core.png

Think of a ring bus like... a train or subway line going in a loop, with each core being a stop/station. Bi-directional would be having one track/line going one direction, one track/line going the other direction.

Now, to relate it back ARM...
So, as far as I'm aware, ARM never disclosed the topology of the previous version of the DynamIQ Shared Unit. But when they introduced the ARMv9 stuff last year, they did describe the new version of the DSU as a dual bi-directional ring structure; two rings of 4 cores each, with two locations where the rings connect to each other. And apparently they claimed to try to keep latencies as low as the previous version.
...and to satisfy my own curiosity, this article claims that the previous DSU was a hybrid crossbar of some sort. And it also describes the previous DSU as having 'very low latencies, to begin with'.
Crossbar's basically a grid, with lines/connections running vertically and horizontally. A crossbar with a max of 8 cores would probably be 2 rows/4 columns, or 4 rows/2 columns, I suppose?

Honestly I'm not 100% sure, I don't know if the 4700S was around at the time.

Regarding cache structure, I don't know if Nvidia is actually using ARM's core interconnect/cluster/cache IP for Orin or Drake. They didn't for TX1, TX2 and Xavier (although obviously the latter two they used custom cores), and there doesn't seem to be any clear indication one way or another for the public details on Orin. However, we do know that Orin has three CPU clusters, each with 4 A78 cores and 2MB of L3 cache, so my assumption is that you're going to get a latency chart that looks more like the Ryzen above than the Skylake, with low latency within a cluster (which topologically has to be either a ring bus or fully connected, given 4 cores), and then a jump in latency between clusters.

As such, I'd expect the same for Drake, unless Nvidia decides to combine all cores in a single cluster. Which they might do, but would depend on whether they're using ARM's IP, and if so whether they've licensed the A78C core, as ARM doesn't support more than 4 A78 or A78AE cores per cluster with their own cluster IP. I don't think it makes that much of a difference in a gaming console, though, as developers can set core affinity to ensure processes which are communicating with each other a lot are on the same cluster. It's more of a pain in the PC world, as you have to rely on the whims of the thread scheduler, and there's a 50-50 chance it'll send a process to the wrong side of the divide.

NV_SCAL_LITTER_NUM_ROP_PER_GPC is defined as 2 for desktop Ampere, Orin, and Drake. Obviously that's not 16, but it probably indicates that it's the same among all the Ampere chips.

Thanks. Ampere divides ROPs up into partitions, with 2 partitions per GPC and 8 ROPS per partition, so that lines up with 16 ROPs as expected.

Haven't seen any changes from all of the Ampere lineup, but I do like the idea you mentioned before about deactivating TPC's(SM's) on the fly for portable mode. Those higher clocks with fewer SM's and using 16 ROP's would definitely provide a higher pixel fill rate and probably better TDP than the full GPU but at lower clocks.

Yeah, they'll also need 16 ROPs in all modes for backwards compatibility, as TX1 featured that many (it was quite ROP-heavy for its performance level, I believe because Nvidia were trying to pitch it as a 4K SoC).
 
Honestly, I don't see how people expect this to be the same family as Switch or that Nintendo will keep doing Switch and Switch Next version of their games. The jump is just too big. We're looking at 10x+ jump in performance. This isn't a Pro device or Switch 4K(aka: A device that would render the same games as Mariko Switch but in 4K). Why would Nintendo spent just billions of dollars + Have a new API(NVN2) + Use a gigantic die(12SMs are really big for a portable device), all of that just for "Switch 4K"? Nah, chief, this is a new generation and will be marketed as such imho. And that's also why I believe it's not going to be released this year but in 23. I also don't see Nintendo spending this much just for 3rd-parties. Their 1st-party teams(Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade etc) have explored Mariko to the limits and it can be easily seen in the latest games. Yes, I do think some games will keep being released as cross-gen(Think of Rythym Heaven, WarioWare, remasters, etc. Smaller projects that aren't limited by Mariko hardware). But the newest entry in Mario, Zelda, Xeno, Pokémon, etc will take full advantage of the new hardware.
Can anyone comment on these? I feel like their fake (due to the 1080p display), but who knows


They're definitely fake and anyone could do it. But see, that's just reinforce what I said. If Nintendo wanted a Pro/4K device, they wouldn't need to use 12SMs/1536 CUDA Cores at all. These fake specifications could simply do it. A 12 SM GPU being used just as a Pro or 4K would be Microsoft releasing the Series X instead of the One X. Yeah, it does the job but it's overkill performance that's just being wasted.
 
Honestly, I don't see how people expect this to be the same family as Switch or that Nintendo will keep doing Switch and Switch Next version of their games. The jump is just too big. We're looking at 10x+ jump in performance. This isn't a Pro device or Switch 4K(aka: A device that would render the same games as Mariko Switch but in 4K). Why would Nintendo spent just billions of dollars + Have a new API(NVN2) + Use a gigantic die(12SMs are really big for a portable device), all of that just for "Switch 4K"? Nah, chief, this is a new generation and will be marketed as such imho. And that's also why I believe it's not going to be released this year but in 23. I also don't see Nintendo spending this much just for 3rd-parties. Their 1st-party teams(Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade etc) have explored Mariko to the limits and it can be easily seen in the latest games. Yes, I do think some games will keep being released as cross-gen(Think of Rythym Heaven, WarioWare, remasters, etc. Smaller projects that aren't limited by Mariko hardware). But the newest entry in Mario, Zelda, Xeno, Pokémon, etc will take full advantage of the new hardware.

They're definitely fake and anyone could do it. But see, that's just reinforce what I said. If Nintendo wanted a Pro/4K device, they wouldn't need to use 12SMs/1536 CUDA Cores at all. These fake specifications could simply do it. A 12 SM GPU being used just as a Pro or 4K would be Microsoft releasing the Series X instead of the One X. Yeah, it does the job but it's overkill performance that's just being wasted.
If it doesn't release this year or early next year, yeah I'll agree with you that it might wind up being called a new gen. I don't even think it would release in 2023 in that event, probably not until holiday 2024.

But if it is released this year there's really no way.
 
Honestly, I don't see how people expect this to be the same family as Switch or that Nintendo will keep doing Switch and Switch Next version of their games. The jump is just too big. We're looking at 10x+ jump in performance. This isn't a Pro device or Switch 4K(aka: A device that would render the same games as Mariko Switch but in 4K). Why would Nintendo spent just billions of dollars + Have a new API(NVN2) + Use a gigantic die(12SMs are really big for a portable device), all of that just for "Switch 4K"? Nah, chief, this is a new generation and will be marketed as such imho. And that's also why I believe it's not going to be released this year but in 23. I also don't see Nintendo spending this much just for 3rd-parties. Their 1st-party teams(Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade etc) have explored Mariko to the limits and it can be easily seen in the latest games. Yes, I do think some games will keep being released as cross-gen(Think of Rythym Heaven, WarioWare, remasters, etc. Smaller projects that aren't limited by Mariko hardware). But the newest entry in Mario, Zelda, Xeno, Pokémon, etc will take full advantage of the new hardware.

They're definitely fake and anyone could do it. But see, that's just reinforce what I said. If Nintendo wanted a Pro/4K device, they wouldn't need to use 12SMs/1536 CUDA Cores at all. These fake specifications could simply do it. A 12 SM GPU being used just as a Pro or 4K would be Microsoft releasing the Series X instead of the One X. Yeah, it does the job but it's overkill performance that's just being wasted.

Yeah, this is kind of my thinking now. Even at the lower end of possible clock speeds, this should be powerful enough to run almost any Switch game at close to 4K natively, which makes the tensor cores basically redundant if it's primarily designed as a "play Switch games at 4K" machine. If they wanted to design a chip around playing Switch games at higher resolutions, we would have ended up with one of two designs:

1. A straight upgrade of the TX1, with a much bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (ie 8 SMs+). This is the simplest way to get maximal compatibility.
2. A smaller Ampere-based GPU (4-6 SMs) with Orin's double-rate tensor cores to get sufficient DLSS performance. This is a more efficient approach, but requires more work on the software side to leverage.

Instead we're getting a GPU that's bigger than it needs to be to brute-force 4K resolutions, but also uses the latest Ampere architecture and includes both tensor cores and RT cores. It strikes me as massive overkill for a machine designed primarily as a "Switch games but in 4K" console, and Nintendo definitely don't have a history of that kind of overkill.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean they'll call it the Switch 2 and make a big deal of dropping support for the original models out of the gate, but it looks to me like this is (in function if not in name) the successor to the Switch. They'll likely have around 2 years of cross-gen support, which is the norm now in any case, and I'd expect them to still sell the Switch Lite at the very least for some time, so there's probably going to be a more gradual transition between generations than we've seen before from Nintendo, but to me at least this looks like a new generation.
 
The specs posted by Nick are honestly a realistic expectation of a “Pro” device.

CPU is a massive ~x9 jump from OG Switch, and better than PS4/XOne CPUs.

GPU by the core counts and clocks is a raw x3 jump from original hardware on docked mode (~400GFLOPs to ~1.2 TFLOPS). Its an okey jump, and on performance is comparable to Xbox One. Sadly being 4 SMs mean less Tensor and RT cores, so DLSS would be limited as he says to a x2 upscale or x4 is technology improves. With patches, it would be possible to run every Switch title at 4k output resolution.

RAM is the expectation, and we are talking about a x2 jump in capacity and +3 jump on bandwidth.

The only thing that makes me weird is the 1080p screen. My expectation is always the same 720p OLED panel.

In summary: this hardware is a very good CPU jump, okey GPU jump and good RAM jump. It would be enough to run every PS4/XOne game at higher resolutions (if they can make DLSS a x4 jump, its PS4 Pro/Xbox One X Territory). PS5/Xbox Series ports would be difficult (not impossible as Switch - PS4/XBO but challenging)

This specs makes sense for a hardware that releases this year and we all supposed is being fabricated at 8nm.

The question is…what if Nvidia leak is about a more future device? Like for example, this year we are getting a “Pro” device with Nick specs, and 3/4 years later we are getting the 12 SMs device as the true successor, with a fabrication node of 3/5nm, 1080p OLED screen, +3TFLOPs raw docked (with DLSS it would be enough to run every PS5 title), VR support, 12GB RAM, 12 CPU cores, etc.

The next question is, can Nintendo hold up with these specs until 2026? Well, it’s difficult to answer honestly. They can live with PS4/XOne late ports and convinced some publishers (especially indies) to aim for “switch pro specs” as base.
 
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If it doesn't release this year or early next year, yeah I'll agree with you that it might wind up being called a new gen. I don't even think it would release in 2023 in that event, probably not until holiday 2024.

But if it is released this year there's really no way.
Yeah. All of that is assuming Nintendo will only release this in 23 or 24 at the latest.
Yeah, this is kind of my thinking now. Even at the lower end of possible clock speeds, this should be powerful enough to run almost any Switch game at close to 4K natively, which makes the tensor cores basically redundant if it's primarily designed as a "play Switch games at 4K" machine. If they wanted to design a chip around playing Switch games at higher resolutions, we would have ended up with one of two designs:

1. A straight upgrade of the TX1, with a much bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (ie 8 SMs+). This is the simplest way to get maximal compatibility.
2. A smaller Ampere-based GPU (4-6 SMs) with Orin's double-rate tensor cores to get sufficient DLSS performance. This is a more efficient approach, but requires more work on the software side to leverage.

Instead we're getting a GPU that's bigger than it needs to be to brute-force 4K resolutions, but also uses the latest Ampere architecture and includes both tensor cores and RT cores. It strikes me as massive overkill for a machine designed primarily as a "Switch games but in 4K" console, and Nintendo definitely don't have a history of that kind of overkill.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean they'll call it the Switch 2 and make a big deal of dropping support for the original models out of the gate, but it looks to me like this is (in function if not in name) the successor to the Switch. They'll likely have around 2 years of cross-gen support, which is the norm now in any case, and I'd expect them to still sell the Switch Lite at the very least for some time, so there's probably going to be a more gradual transition between generations than we've seen before from Nintendo, but to me at least this looks like a new generation.
Couldn't have said better. You explained my point much better than I. Thanks Thraktor!
The specs posted by Nick are honestly a realistic expectation of a “Pro” device.

CPU is a massive ~x9 jump from OG Switch, and better than PS4/XOne CPUs.

GPU by the core counts and clocks is a raw x3 jump from original hardware on docked mode (~400GFLOPs to ~1.2 TFLOPS). Its an okey jump, and on performance is comparable to Xbox One. Sadly being 4 SMs mean less Tensor and RT cores, so DLSS would be limited as he says to a x2 upscale or x4 is technology improves. With patches, it would be possible to run every Switch title at 4k output resolution.

RAM is the expectation, and we are talking about a x2 jump in capacity and +3 jump on bandwidth.

The only thing that makes me weird is the 1080p screen. My expectation is always the same 720p OLED panel.

In summary: this hardware is a very good CPU jump, okey GPU jump and good RAM jump. It would be enough to run every PS4/XOne game at higher resolutions (if they can make DLSS a x4 jump, its PS4 Pro/Xbox One X Territory). PS5/Xbox Series ports would be difficult (not impossible as Switch - PS4/XBO but challenging)

This specs makes sense for a hardware that releases this year and we all supposed is being fabricated at 8nm.

The question is…what if Nvidia leak is about a more future device? Like for example, this year we are getting a “Pro” device with Nick specs, and 3/4 years later we are getting the 12 SMs device as the true successor, with a fabrication node of 3/5nm, 1080p OLED screen, +3TFLOPs raw docked (with DLSS it would be enough to run every PS5 title), 12GB RAM, 12 CPU cores, etc.
Were this the case, we would have seen such SoC in the Nvidia hack no? Also, if we assume these specs were for a Pro device releasing this year, part of the current Switch family, then it would also need to appear in the firmware and the dataminers would have picked up by now.
Honestly, these are just fake. Anyone from here would have been able to create a list of specs like that. In fact, 4-6 SMs was the general consensus for this new machine until the Nvidia hack pointed the Switch Next as a 12 SMs GPU.
 
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The specs posted by Nick are honestly a realistic expectation of a “Pro” device.

CPU is a massive ~x9 jump from OG Switch, and better than PS4/XOne CPUs.

GPU by the core counts and clocks is a raw x3 jump from original hardware on docked mode (~400GFLOPs to ~1.2 TFLOPS). Its an okey jump, and on performance is comparable to Xbox One. Sadly being 4 SMs mean less Tensor and RT cores, so DLSS would be limited as he says to a x2 upscale or x4 is technology improves. With patches, it would be possible to run every Switch title at 4k output resolution.

RAM is the expectation, and we are talking about a x2 jump in capacity and +3 jump on bandwidth.

The only thing that makes me weird is the 1080p screen. My expectation is always the same 720p OLED panel.

In summary: this hardware is a very good CPU jump, okey GPU jump and good RAM jump. It would be enough to run every PS4/XOne game at higher resolutions (if they can make DLSS a x4 jump, its PS4 Pro/Xbox One X Territory). PS5/Xbox Series ports would be difficult (not impossible as Switch - PS4/XBO but challenging)

This specs makes sense for a hardware that releases this year and we all supposed is being fabricated at 8nm.

The question is…what if Nvidia leak is about a more future device? Like for example, this year we are getting a “Pro” device with Nick specs, and 3/4 years later we are getting the 12 SMs device as the true successor, with a fabrication node of 3/5nm, 1080p OLED screen, +3TFLOPs raw docked (with DLSS it would be enough to run every PS5 title), 12GB RAM, 12 CPU cores, etc.
Anything is possible but that would require a fair amount of coincidences.

Last year we were told Dane was T239 and on 8nm. Nate also heard 8nm for the device that has devkits out since 2020.

This device is called Drake but also T239, and since its closest comparison is Orin still very likely 8nm. So it's extremely likely that this Drake is the same thing we heard about last year and the same things that has had devkits out since 2020.

It's possible that somehow Drake and Dane were confused and are two separate things, but the T239 name they both have in common makes that a bit unlikely.
 
But Nvidia leak isn’t complete right?

I really hope an insider/journalist comes here to save the day hahaha.
It's not, I agree there's no reason Dane would have to be there if it's something else. But the fact that Drake is T239 is a much bigger reason why it's hard to accept the possibility of two different chips.
 
Not to bring up an aged debate, but was there anything in the leak that could point either towards or away from Drake being a home-only console? Not that I want or expect it, just thinking about how Nintendo would keep prices low such a larger chip.
 
Not to bring up an aged debate, but was there anything in the leak that could point either towards or away from Drake being a home-only console? Not that I want or expect it, just thinking about how Nintendo would keep prices low such a larger chip.
Nothing concrete. But the clock gating function which seems exclusive to Drake and no other Ampere chips suggests there might be a mode switching function a la Switch hybrid.

It's not definitive though.
 
Not to bring up an aged debate, but was there anything in the leak that could point either towards or away from Drake being a home-only console? Not that I want or expect it, just thinking about how Nintendo would keep prices low such a larger chip.
No. In fact, there's actually data in the code that points out this chip is for a hybrid device. There's reference to HoS(Switch OS) and abca2(Base Switch form-factor/hybrid).
UPDATE BELOW:

Didn't we determine that was just holdover code from NVN?
We did? I might have missed that then.
edit: Humm, just saw Lic clarification. Sorry for sharing misinformation then. Will redo in my post.
 
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So question, would these specs represent a dev kit more than the actual target hardware for release? Iirc, consoles usually have some extra/inflated hardware specs in their kit variants for technical reasons right? Didn't Switch's dev kit have 6 gigs of ram for example or am I remembering incorrectly?
 
So question, would these specs represent a dev kit more than the actual target hardware for release? Iirc, consoles usually have some extra/inflated hardware specs in their kit variants for technical reasons right? Didn't Switch's dev kit have 6 gigs of ram for example or am I remembering incorrectly?
it's usually ram that dev kits have more of, not extra cpus/gpu cores. it's not impossible, but very unlikely
 
But Nvidia leak isn’t complete right?

I really hope an insider/journalist comes here to save the day hahaha.

The leak isn't complete but it would be odd for there to be 2 chips and one of them is a complete secret that we have never heard of releasing 3 to 4 years out. At that point, it wouldn't make sense that they have nailed down such concrete specs and implementations. They would use something newer for hardware coming out in 2025-2026
 
Thing is, i feel like Nintendo will approach the gen cycle differently. There is no way the Switch will get replaced after 5 years in the state that it is today. It is still doing one of the best years Nintendo had with hardware and there is a chip shortage. So this has to be a revision. Thing is, they could position this as a revision that will then take the lead for next gen as it will be powerful enough to do it. It will just be complicated to manage what is exclusive to it and what can be played on every system and at what point does it replace the older one, etc. But my point is, no matter how they approach it, this new console will be counted as part of the Switch family.
 
Thing is, i feel like Nintendo will approach the gen cycle differently. There is no way the Switch will get replaced after 5 years in the state that it is today. It is still doing one of the best years Nintendo had with hardware and there is a chip shortage. So this has to be a revision. Thing is, they could position this as a revision that will then take the lead for next gen as it will be powerful enough to do it. It will just be complicated to manage what is exclusive to it and what can be played on every system and at what point does it replace the older one, etc. But my point is, no matter how they approach it, this new console will be counted as part of the Switch family.
Yeah. This is part of the Switch family. It will be counted towards Switch sales in Nintendo’s financials just like GBC was to GB or any 3DS revision was for 3DS.
 
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The way another chip would make sense, is if Nintendo is indeed using clock gating for portable mode.

It would be called T236 or something and would be just a cut down version of Drake for the new lite.

I have no faith in the “real next gen in 3-4 years” theory.

Edit: but with chip shortage, I wouldn’t be surprised if no new lite is planned until things get better, so they can focus all their production at their flagship.
 
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Yeah, this is kind of my thinking now. Even at the lower end of possible clock speeds, this should be powerful enough to run almost any Switch game at close to 4K natively, which makes the tensor cores basically redundant if it's primarily designed as a "play Switch games at 4K" machine. If they wanted to design a chip around playing Switch games at higher resolutions, we would have ended up with one of two designs:

1. A straight upgrade of the TX1, with a much bigger Maxwell/Pascal GPU (ie 8 SMs+). This is the simplest way to get maximal compatibility.
2. A smaller Ampere-based GPU (4-6 SMs) with Orin's double-rate tensor cores to get sufficient DLSS performance. This is a more efficient approach, but requires more work on the software side to leverage.

Instead we're getting a GPU that's bigger than it needs to be to brute-force 4K resolutions, but also uses the latest Ampere architecture and includes both tensor cores and RT cores. It strikes me as massive overkill for a machine designed primarily as a "Switch games but in 4K" console, and Nintendo definitely don't have a history of that kind of overkill.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean they'll call it the Switch 2 and make a big deal of dropping support for the original models out of the gate, but it looks to me like this is (in function if not in name) the successor to the Switch. They'll likely have around 2 years of cross-gen support, which is the norm now in any case, and I'd expect them to still sell the Switch Lite at the very least for some time, so there's probably going to be a more gradual transition between generations than we've seen before from Nintendo, but to me at least this looks like a new generation.
if the Drake/Switch 2chip ends up being similar in size to Orion NX, just how is it going to fit in a Switch firm factor with a 5000mAh battery 🤔
 
if the Drake/Switch 2chip ends up being similar in size to Orion NX, just how is it going to fit in a Switch firm factor with a 5000mAh battery 🤔
Orin NX is a binned big Orin, so Drake would be smaller. And all the automotive parts would be cut.

But still, a smaller node seems more likely now than it did pre leak.
 
Not sure if anyone has said it, but Nate mentioned on the Spawncast (which I am catching up to), that he will have some exclusive info in his next video, which will be released in the coming days, hopefully before friday, but who knows?
 
The two chip theory is a bit amiss as Kopite7kimi would have known about it already.

And mentioned it.


And it would have been Maxwell based, not Ampere based. Ampere based would have made less sense as it would have required more work just to get switch to 4K if that’s their only goal.

And considering this is the NVN2 API leaked from the hack, which has a primary feature use with the tensor cores and ray tracing cores, it therefore means that the second chip doesn’t have these features as it doesn’t appear anywhere in the hack.

Not only that, but unless I’m mistaken it seems like Dane isn’t even referenced in the hack, but Drake is what’s referenced in the hack.

And GA10F, across multiple parts of it.

and T239D
 
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