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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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PkStarstorm said:
Nate has a great point in his video, maybe Nintendo wants a stronger first party lineup, but it messes up all the third parties hopes for holiday season. If I was a developer and my game was planned to launch with the console this November/December and now moved to 2025, I would be pissed sooo much.
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I'm thinking out loud here, but is there a possibility that Nintendo even consulted with close 3rd party devs to get their take on things? Or would Nintendo just make a decision like this internally, and only internally?

(It should still be noted that to the public's knowledge, no actual release date has ever been known, so I still consider it weird to be calling this a delay when to us normies, this is the first real indication that there even is a launch date)

Bonejack said:
SQEX and the Mana team certainly are.
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Similar to what I’m saying above, maybe it’s not as dire as we're making out to be, and it’s more a blessing in disguise for the developers not to feel so rushed all of the sudden.

Yes, we have the holiday season, but if the March 2017 launch of Switch taught us anything, it's kinda showing the whole “must get X game out by holiday season” doesn’t necessarily mean you’re guaranteed maximum sales either.


Again, I’m just spitballing here, but if I were some lowly developers who was perhaps dreading a massive crunch into the holiday season for a Switch 2 launch, hearing a “delay” isn’t March of the following year would be music to my ears. Though I am not a programmer, so not sure what is “typical,” or “expected” in the industry.
 
With anyone being so clueless about the delay, it's the chance for Nintendo to whip out a surprise reveal event this or next week, undoing any 2025 talk!

(I allow myself to keep hoping until March ends.)
 
According to this thread third party devs have been pissed with Nintendo ever since the Pro/OLED debacle in mid-2021. What’s a few more months gonna do lol
 
I have to say waiting for Nintendo hardware is incredibly frustrating. The company repeatedly having trouble with almost every graphics leap and hardware getting delayed yet everything being treated with secrecy out the wazoo sucks. Also the only real confirmed news in ages is that the system has been delayed to 2025, lol.
 
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Bonejack said:
With anyone being so clueless about the delay, it's the chance for Nintendo to whip out a surprise reveal event this or next week, undoing any 2025 talk!

(I allow myself to keep hoping until March ends.)
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The only constant about switch 2 rumours recently is that nintendo were telling developers/publishers that plans were pushed back. I'm not very optimistic on that front
 
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I was pleasantly surprised that the hosts acknowledged the possibility that the window always included early 2025, and basically said they never had clear enough information from third parties to discount it. Unfortunately, the entire rest of the podcast discussion required assuming that's not the case, so I'm not really on the same page with the rest of it.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nate doesn’t seem to have much insight into why the Switch 2 was delayed or when it will be shown , but he and MVG seem frustrated by the delay.
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the strength of Yen is another reason why Nintendo delayed Switch sucessor to 2025? Nintendo is operating trought a weaker yen, if the yen strenghen, this will complicate Nintendo situation
 
Giancarlo said:
the strength of Yen is another reason why Nintendo delayed Switch sucessor to 2025? Nintendo is operating trought a weaker yen, if the yen strenghen, this will complicate Nintendo situation
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Are there even any hopes that economy actually gets better in early 2025?

I'd rather say it gets worse, especially with the danger of the Orange Turd looming again.
 
Lugia667 said:
"Third parties pissed at Nintendo for X reasons"

some things seem to never change. As long as Switch 2 sells they can grumble all they want
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some things never change(Nintendo angering third-parties is one of them, that why third-parties prefer Playstation/Xbox, they never give third-parties this sort of headache Nintendo always do.)
 
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Giancarlo said:
the strength of Yen is another reason why Nintendo delayed Switch sucessor to 2025? Nintendo is operating trought a weaker yen, if the yen strenghen, this will complicate Nintendo situation
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pretty much the opposite actually : low yen means easier to export - well more like every export brings home more yen. And if indeed stockpiling raw materials paid in yen costs more, and paying factories abroad is more expensive, well... Everything else actually benefits from the low yen.
 
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Bonejack said:
Are there even any hopes that economy actually gets better in early 2025?

I'd rather say it gets worse, especially with the danger of the Orange Turd looming again.
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It's just so amazing to me that someone incited an attack on the government building and millions of Americans go "lets elect that guy again".

And the other guy is 81 years old.
 
Bonejack said:
Are there even any hopes that economy actually gets better in early 2025?

I'd rather say it gets worse, especially with the danger of the Orange Turd looming again.
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Japan doesn't really raise its interest rate currently while every other nation do; so the yen is historical low. But at some points they will "have to", because the lower your money the more your imports costs, and Japan already have the weirdest "shrinkflation", the current rate of 1 USD = 150 YEN is probably not sustainable too long when they have to actually import, as a nation, a lot.
 
Johnson said:
Yeah, I tapped out about halfway through. Nothing particularly illuminating or insightful in this one. I could draw a lot of these conclusions myself.
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yeah this one was a 2x speed type of vibe lol. nice to hear from mvg though i suppose
 
The problem here speculating about SW is that we don’t really know about Switch 2 Third Party SW in development.

If some journalist/insider come out and say that next COD, Assasins Creed, Tekken, Street Fighter, Resident Evil, Madden, etc basically lots of blockbuster titles are in active development for Switch 2, OK, I would understand why third party partners are a little unhappy that next Switch isn’t hitting this holiday season.

But if third party current lineup is much weaker than expected and none of those games I listed above are really in development for Switch 2, so Nintendo want to relay in their SW + they have some problems related to provide a fluent schedule of their games, I understand why they delayed the system.

But until we don’t have an scoope of real third party support, its very hard to speculate.
 
Bonejack said:
Are there even any hopes that economy actually gets better in early 2025?

I'd rather say it gets worse, especially with the danger of the Orange Turd looming again.
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I doubt that economy status impact Nintendo decisions on release
Up to now, none of that had interference on Switch consoles and softwares sales at all there

The hardware delay most plausible cause right now should be lineup strength 1st party wise (as I know that plenty of big 3rd party games would be ready for a later this year / early next year release)
 
There may not be US rate drops for a while that stabilize exchange rates. Consumer confidence has shot up in the last few months and so have wages, and that has kept inflation a bit higher than was expected so the interest rates will likely stay high for a while longer.

The Bank of Japan raised rates from -0.1% to 0.0% today and they said that's all they'll do.

So if Nintendo is waiting on a better exchange rate, uhhhhh.
 
Also, it's obviously more interesting to sell a new product in March than in November, to flatten the production line.

Nintendo wants one thing : to sell the exact right amount of consoles evey month / week / day, as much as they can produce - and also that the sell in matches the sell through.

If they produce too much / sell too low, then there is stock, and stock eats up space in stores, keeps client from commanding more units, devalues the product , you have to pay taxes and tarifs, ....

If they produce too low / sell too much, then there is lost sales, customer angry, cannot grow userbase, and the whole chain is under the stress of "when the next unit will be available". Also, it flaws your projection, because you cannot state that someone that couldn't buy the product now will do so later.

In September / October / November, you enter the period of the year when naturally people will be wanting your product the most - because Christmas, obviously. So, in order to produce just the right amount they will have to stockpile a lot of units, sustaining both the NIntendo enthousiast AND Santa Claus. And then ? January, February, March... Low sales months. And you still don't want to be stockpiling units, but producing the right amount.

Launching in March, you flatten the curve. The enthousiast will get their device when it's usually low, leaving room for those who will pick it up for summer, and then for christmas, making everything easier to adjust and ship just the right amount.

Cannot be the sole factor, but it could be one.
 
necrolipe said:
I doubt that economy status impact Nintendo decisions on release
Up to now, none of that had interference on Switch consoles and softwares sales at all there

The hardware delay most plausible cause right now should be lineup strength 1st party wise (as I know that plenty of big 3rd party games would be ready for a later this year / early next year release)
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Yeah, it's odd how there seems to be persistent opinions that Nintendo will or will not release things based on Yen strength.

I don't think any US companies had that concern back when our dollar strength was weak a while ago.. "maybe we should hold back from releasing this product, our dollar is weak". Maybe it does happen with other countries but I just think that seems a bit odd.
 
necrolipe said:
I doubt that economy status impact Nintendo decisions on release
Up to now, none of that had interference on Switch consoles and softwares sales at all there

The hardware delay most plausible cause right now should be lineup strength 1st party wise (as I know that plenty of big 3rd party games would be ready for a later this year / early next year release)
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We're on the same page here. I think it would be insane to overthrow such plans just because of a shitty economy, when there's no realistic outlook for an improvement.

In theory, what if this was the case and economy is the same or even worse in 2025? Delay again? Wait until the weather's finally good?
Would be a joke of an international operating company.

Though i'll be honest, i know Nintendo is thinking of Nintendo first and (mostly) only, and of course they want to have their games sell most on their system ...
But it feels really somewhat disrespectful to third parties, if they're not willing to let those carry the launch window a bit.

Especially when there's signs that thirds are actually willing to do so this time.

On top, i'd say launch window sales are also somewhat limited in how much software you can drop without starting to drown other games. The system won't be cheap, so the budget for games might be limited to begin with.
I sure as heck won't get more than 2 games at launch, despite having the financial freedom to get even more if i would want to.
 
darthdiablo said:
Yeah, it's odd how there seems to be persistent opinions that Nintendo will or will not release things based on Yen strength.

I don't think any US companies had that concern back when our dollar strength was weak a while ago.. "maybe we should hold back from releasing this product, our dollar is weak". Maybe it does happen with other countries but I just think that seems a bit odd.
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Adding to this, Sony and Microsoft thought despite a global pandemic running rampant, and killing hundreds of thousands of people, “Yup. Perfect time to launch a brand new system.”

In other words, Corporations don’t give a flying fuck, and will do as they please.
 
Tron1 said:
Surprising!!!!
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eye0h said:
yeah this one was a 2x speed type of vibe lol. nice to hear from mvg though i suppose
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If Nate wants to talk specific software, I'm all ears. Having followed his podcast for years, it's not hard to figure out what sources he does (and doesn't) have. He's been struggling on the hardware (like everyone else), but the past few Switch 2 episodes don't really offer anything new to someone reasonably informed.
 
eye0h said:
are any of those games exclusives
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Probably not unless Nintendo paid for them and I'm not sure which games they would pay for.

Ubisoft's entire lineup for the next four years leaked and nothing there looked like something Nintendo would buy. KT I think Nintendo would just hire to make their own games. All of EA's games are licensed and Nintendo probably would struggle to buy exclusivity rights. Maybe Nintendo would want to buy timed exclusivity for some Square stuff like Chrono Trigger Remake?
 
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LiC said:
If there was any evidence of that, I would have included it in the original post. There could have been a comment stating it or even another script to configure the GPU that way, but there isn't. It's still not an important part of the test, since as a local test script checked in alongside the source code, its purpose was for each developer to compare before and after their own code changes, which means the differences are relative and don't have to be consistent across different PCs. But yeah, there are plenty of comments for how a developer needs to set things up to make use of the scripts, such as a link to download the (Windows) executable that locks the GPU clocks, but nothing about configuring the GPU beyond that.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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Thank you for this. I've been constructing this idea that they have the following things:

Target wattage
Target manufacturing process
Number of GPU cores
Available GPUs that use the same type of core on a different process
A way to estimate a clock that would hit that target wattage and manufacturing process.

It made sense to me that they could then disable all but 12 GPU cores on that similar enough card to do some sort of (very preliminary) performance validations.

A lot of assumptions on my part, but glad to know I was on the wrong track, so I can abandon that.
 
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Johnson said:
If Nate wants to talk specific software, I'm all ears. Having followed his podcast for years, it's not hard to figure out what sources he does (and doesn't) have. He's been struggling on the hardware and the past few Switch 2 episodes don't really offer anything new to someone reasonably informed.
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It was just a bit disappointing to see "What we know" in the title of the video and for them to not really know anything (they don't particularly owe any news but you know what I mean). Definitely feels like nintendo have cracked down on leaks massively, I wonder if it'll hold up till the announcement though. It'd be nice to hear about a couple games, what their targets are for the next console so we can get a semi basic grasp on what's coming practically.
 
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Procheno said:
TLDW:

We don't know when, we don't know why
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tumblr_inline_n0aqavHmEL1rucshw.gif
 
I didn't mind the podcast. Honestly was more or less what speculation was here. There was a slight nod to maybe a direct or something from Nintendo as Nate said Nintendo has asked partners for assets to their Switch 2 games. But what does that mean in the short-term? Who the heck knows lol. Feels like anything official is some 2 months away unless there is a GDC leak.

Bonejack said:
Are there even any hopes that economy actually gets better in early 2025?

I'd rather say it gets worse, especially with the danger of the Orange Turd looming again.
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Threeman said:
Japan doesn't really raise its interest rate currently while every other nation do; so the yen is historical low. But at some points they will "have to", because the lower your money the more your imports costs, and Japan already have the weirdest "shrinkflation", the current rate of 1 USD = 150 YEN is probably not sustainable too long when they have to actually import, as a nation, a lot.
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I mean they just did raise interest rates for the first time in forever. All of this because of inflation, which for them was needed as they've faced a pretty stagnant economy for so long. So the economy may get better for Japan.
 
Well my stance still stand that the delay was caused because of having a polished first party line up. I can definitely understand why some third party developers are upset and mad, but i think it’s important to note what sells a system will first and foremost will always be exclusives first party games.

And over the year Nintendo in the public eye is seen as a platform for Nintendo games. If Nintendo only released a Mario game and the rest of the 6 month or year would be just ps4 ports that people have already played then what’s the reason of buying the system?

Plus this time around they won’t have the luxury of selling Wii U ports.

if a 4-6 month delay means better and polished games, then it fine by me since I have a backlogs to finish.

But that’s just my opinion.
 
So the only important information is that Nintendo has requested 3rd party assets for the Switch 2 trailer, and we don’t even know when it happened? Maybe we‘ll get more from the GDC, we‘re starving since the delay news and if we don’t get a reveal soon, we‘ll go crazy and build our own Switch 2 (that is just two Switches duct taped together).
 
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Hocot8 said:
I didn't mind the podcast. Honestly was more or less what speculation was here. There was a slight nod to maybe a direct or something from Nintendo as Nate said Nintendo has asked partners for assets to their Switch 2 games. But what does that mean in the short-term? Who the heck knows lol. Feels like anything official is some 2 months away unless there is a GDC leak.



I mean they just did raise interest rates for the first time in forever. All of this because of inflation, which for them was needed as they've faced a pretty stagnant economy for so long. So the economy may get better for Japan.
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I check, indeed they just did it yesterday apparently ^^.

But it's still an incredibly low rate compared to US - EU economies, so the yen will keep on being low for a while, unless they really do something against it.
And low yen is not something as linear as "bad" or "good" for the economy, it's just... well, I guess it's political views at this stage. But for Nintendo, low yen is good : they produce most of their software with employees paid in yens, and they mostly sell in euros / dollars : it gets them more money than it costs them.
 
Kysen said:
New Nate podcast
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They mentioned the rumours surrounding March Indie Direct, April General Direct, and May/June nuSwitch reveal, but didn't corroborate them, but man I am not looking forward to a repeat of 2020 post-PMTOK limbo all over again if there's nothing dated after Luigi's Mansion 2.

I get different circumstances four years ago and it's entirely unlikely bordering impossible, but given how tight-lipped Nintendo has been for last...two, three, four years? I'm not holding my breath they know what's unreasonably secretive.
 
Brofield said:
They mentioned the rumours surrounding March Indie Direct, April General Direct, and May/June nuSwitch reveal, but didn't corroborate them, but man I am not looking forward to a repeat of 2020 post-PMTOK limbo all over again if there's nothing dated after Luigi's Mansion 2.

I get different circumstances four years ago and it's entirely unlikely bordering impossible, but given how tight-lipped Nintendo has been for last...two, three, four years? I'm not holding my breath they know what's unreasonably secretive.
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Too secretive is just enough secretive (for Nintendo).
 
I'm still going to assume that Nintendo has more than one reason to delay. I could see waiting for software and wanting to clear out some old hardware before releasing Switch 2.
 
bmfrosty said:
I'm still going to assume that Nintendo has more than one reason to delay. I could see waiting for software and wanting to clear out some old hardware before releasing Switch 2.
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I think Nintendo is just making sure the software is ready for the Switch 2 Launch so it has a big bang entrance. Nintendo delayed the Nintendo 64 because Mario 64 was not ready for launch when the system would be ready.
 
Threeman said:
I check, indeed they just did it yesterday apparently ^^.

But it's still an incredibly low rate compared to US - EU economies, so the yen will keep on being low for a while, unless they really do something against it.
And low yen is not something as linear as "bad" or "good" for the economy, it's just... well, I guess it's political views at this stage. But for Nintendo, low yen is good : they produce most of their software with employees paid in yens, and they mostly sell in euros / dollars : it gets them more money than it costs them.
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Oh of course. It's way too low but if inflation is healthy rather than the unhealthy kind like supply issues they could potentially increase rates again ever so slightly. Japan still has a long way to go with the economy while still having this looming population problem on the horizon. But the former could alleviate the latter.

I feel like I remember during the great recession a low yen was hurting Nintendo but I was young so it may just be misremembering or the gaming site I read that from was just wrong lmao. But we can all see that it hasn't hurt Nintendo this gen lmao.

seyfeselassie said:
Did Nate say anything about expectations for GDC, didn't have the time to finish the video
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iirc he alluded to leaks by saying maybe Nintendo will want to get out ahead of what comes from it. Just speculation really.
 
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