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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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eye0h said:


Likely fake but thought i'd drop it here.

march 14th for wilds

If this is real we may have our release date : p

big confidential text isn't a great sign but hey the logos look great.
Click to expand...


Fake, internal Capcom docs have a different signposting for confidentiality.

Also in general for these kind of timelines usually no one creates or uses logos.
In this case it would also be EN/JP in many cases, uses codenames for products in the future and not the actual names, give more information than just a date (platform, greenlight status etc)...
 
oldpuck said:
Raploz's analysis was insufficient here, though it's not obvious why.

The first problem is that he's comparing benchmarks from different youtube channels. Those benchmarks aren't using the same settings, resolutions, CPU, or RAM. All those things have huge effects on the numbers, so you can't really compare them

The second problem is that Minecraft with RT on isn't "pure RT". Like every other RT game, it's a mix of RT effects and old school raster rendering. No one is saying that PS5 won't beat T239 at old school rendering. Only measuring them combined lets sluggish RT on PS5 "hide" inside the faster rasterization.

Obviously real games are going to use both combined, but the way they combine those two things will vary from game to game. If we wanna speculate about it, we really need to isolate the RT part away from the rasterization part. And we want to do it on machines that are identical except for the GPUs, so we have real values. Here is what I came up with

Step one, benchmark a game with RT off:
For example, our test machine, with an RTX 3050, running Control at high settings, 1440p, gets an average of 55 fps

Step two, repeat benchmark with RT on:
Same machine, same RTX 3050, Control at high settings, still 1440p, but with RT effects "on", gets an average of 29 fps.

Step three, convert FPS to frame time
55 frames-per-second, 18.18ms for the RTX 3050 to draw a rasterized Control frame
29 frames-per-second, 34.48ms per the RTX 3050 to draw a ray traced Control frame.

Step four, remove the rasterization time from the ray trace time
To be fair here, when we turn on RT we turn off some rasterized lighting effects. So this isn't how much time for RT so much as how much extra time RT takes instead of raster effects. This will vary, again, depending on how many RT effects the game has, and at what level of fidelity.
34.48ms - 18.18ms = 16.30ms of time to add RT effects to Control on a 3050.

Step five, convert that back to a "pure ray tracing" FPS
This is just to keep "higher is better" in all the numbers. It makes comparison with other metrics easier.
At 16.13ms to ray trace a frame of Control, the RTX 3050 could do that 61.34 times a second.

Step 6, do that over and over again for a bunch of GPUs.
To be clear, I didn't do this. I don't have this much hardware, the necessary analysis tools, or time. But Digital Foundry does, so I used their numbers

RTX 3050RTX 3060RTX 3060TiRTX 3070RTX 3070TiRX 6600XRX 6600 XTRX 6700XT
41.5661.3485.0992.498.3728.5636.2039.53

Step 7, Adjust for TFLOPS
Not all these cards are in the same performance categories, and we want to find out generally what is the difference between AMD's hardware and Nvidia's. So we need to get the ray-tracing performance per TFLOP. If this analysis makes sense, then we should get pretty similar numbers for all the RTX cards, and a different set of similar numbers for the RX cards. Low and behold

RTX 3050RTX 3060RTX 3060TiRTX 3070RTX 3070TiRX 6600RX 6600XTRX 6700XT
4.564.835.254.554.533.193.412.99

Step 8, average for each architecture
At this point we're doing a lot of averages, so the error bars are pretty high, but we're clearly seeing better perf from Nvidia.

AmpereRDNA2
4.743.20

Step 8, add mores games
Not all games combine RT and raster effects the same. Fortunately, we also have data for a second game, Metro Exodus. I'll save you the charts. but Metro Exodus has lighter RT load than Control

GameAmpereRDNA2Difference
Control4.743.20148%
Metro Exodus8.834.66189%
Combined score6.783.93172%

There is a likely reason that the leap gets higher for the easier game - Ampere doesn't just "do RT faster" it accelerates more parts of the RT pipeline than RDNA2. Depending on which parts of the pipeline you lean hardest on, you're going to get different numbers. But for this simple, back-of-the-envelope analysis we will combine the two benchmarks, in order to increase the number of data points we have.

Step 9, extrapolate for the consoles
We can take our per-TFLOP score for the architectures to generate per-machine scores for the consoles. We'll assume T239 is running at a cool 1GHz
T239Series SPS5Series X
20.8115.7239.347.16

Conclusions, Part I
We've known that Nvidia outperforms AMD at RT, but this helps extract how much in a way that lets us talk about our unreleased hardware. As we can see, T239 is outperforming the Series S by about a third, and the PS5 is a little shy of double the T239.

But we also know that games vary in how much they use RT - look at Metro Exodus vs Control - and we know that rasterization perf still matters. There is no single number that can tell us "how many RT effects will we get compared to Sony."

Conclusion Part II
In the real world, these consoles will never go head to head like this. Let's imagine three make-believe games:

The Last Gen Port Of Us: Premastered - This is an imaginary PS3/PS4 era game, that later added some RT in a "remastered" version. This is a game that both Drake and the other consoles can max out the settings on. After maxing out, Drake is running close to full capacity, yet the others have plenty of horsepower to spare - horsepower that can be spent on turning on every new RT effect and calling it a day. Drake's nice dedicated RT cores aren't enough to overcome that gap.

President Weevil - a cross-gen showcase, built with RT in mind, but also with a strong non-RT backup. Designed to scale down to last gen consoles, and up to current gen. Series S gets basically the last gen version, running at a nice 1080p30, with baked lighting. PS5 has a RT mode that is also 30fps, but is 4k, and adds in RT effects. Drake can't even do Series S res, but it's got all this extra RT power hanging around it can actually keep the RT effects that Series S lost. 720p+RT

Mario Court - Camelot finally develops the Mario Jousting game that is their destiny, a Switch 2 exclusive. Unlike even Sony and Microsoft's exclusives, which still go to PC, Mario Court was built exclusively for a machine with dedicated RT hardware. In terms of number of RT effects used, it matches or outshines many PS5 games, partially because it is very carefully managing the amount of geometry, the number of light sources, and the resolution to maximize the effect, and keep costs low. Rendering nerds can pick it apart, easily, but everyone has to admit that it just looks good.

Conclusion Part III
I expect Nintendo to take better advantage of RT than any one else this gen, because they've only got to handle the one RT capable platform, and as has been pointed out, RT is definitely present, but it's not yet ubiquitous in the PC space. Even "better" performance can be dwarfed by having every single first party Nintendo game share a common, RT hardware exclusive, highly optimized lighting engine.

The theoretical performance of Switch 2 in RT rendering matters less than how much developers are willing to preserve those RT effects. If third parties aren't really yet taking advantage of RT, then going the extra mile to support RT on Switch 2 might take a back seat, especially if it's not well integrated into their engines.

It'll be interesting to see how Lumen and other hybrid GI solutions play out. Where RT is just a developer toggle inside a generic lighting solution, instead of customizing each individual RT feature for performance/quality, I imagine many developers will simply turn hardware lumen "on" or "off" based on what offers the best performance/quality. If a game is hurting for perf, going to software lumen might offer a benefit that's worth it, for 0 hardware RT effects. On the other hand if a game has some headroom, then turning on all hardware Lumen might be a late-game quality boost in a port that is already hitting it's performance target

Cavets
DLSS Upscaling obviously opens up "similar quality lower internal resolution" possibilities. Ideally, though, you want to run RT at the output res, not the input. So maybe DLSS upscaling helps, by opening up GPU performance, but it's indirect, and a per-game thing.

DLSS Ray Reconstruction opens up a new possibility - "similar quality, fewer rays." But we don't know how much that's true, because the few games that use RR don't let us independently control number of rays and RR on or off. Right now RR is just a quality booster for high end experiences - kinda like how Upscaling was a performance booster for 4k only in the early days.

Just like upscaling, RR has a cost, and it's not clear to me that the performance advantage of fewer rays will overcome the performance cost of RR, at similar quality. Color me cautiously optimistic, emphasis on the cautious.

And all of this assumes that AMD's software doesn't improve, or that Sony's PS5 Pro doesn't bring new software tools to the base models - Nvidia's software is better and takes advantage of their custom hardware, but it's not magic. PS5 and Series X are just plain bigger, and David beating Goliath is a good story because it's rare that the little guy wins.

Conclusions, Part IV
I think it'll be a better RT machine than the Series S - ie better at keeping RT on in cut down ports of 3rd party games, and more first party RT experiences. That doesn't mean that every other visual aspects of games will also be better. Just that the math on Drake for which settings to cut and keep will not match the other machines.
Click to expand...
That analise is cool, but the right thing to do in RTX ampere is isolate the performance of each RT core to full understand the time it takes to renderize ray tracing, or am I wrong?

So, a RTX 3090 with 82 RT cores can do more and fast ray traces than RTX 3060 with only 24, right? The T239 will have only 12 RT, how much loss it will be and what that amount will do ?
 
eye0h said:


Likely fake but thought i'd drop it here.

march 14th for wilds

If this is real we may have our release date : p

big confidential text isn't a great sign but hey the logos look great.
Click to expand...

Ace Attorney isn't on here, I'm about to have my witness stand breakdown.

(I know it's not a platinum title).

(Even though it should be).
 
If MH Wilds comes to Switch 2, it will probably be a 6-12 months late port.

But I have some faith that REIX will be a day 1 release.

BTW, as this week is GDC, hopefully we get some spoils from third party developers as theorically lots of them has already real devkits.
 
LoneRanger said:
If MH Wilds comes to Switch 2, it will probably be a 6-12 months late port.

But I have some faith that REIX will be a day 1 release.

BTW, as this week is GDC, hopefully we get some spoils from third party developers as theorically lots of them has already real devkits.
Click to expand...

You don’t think Capcom already have Switch 2 devkit?
 
Bonejack said:
I mean ... it's the same way they did the Village and Resi 7 logos.
Click to expand...

No, because they didn't put the number at the end of the title and then highlight a different number inside the title.

It reeks of someone not knowing how to make a title that sounds good that has "ix" in the name somewhere.

"Resident Evil 9, titled Resident Evil 10" is extremely stupid and a big departure from the prior two titles.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
No, because they didn't put the number at the end of the title and then highlight a different number inside the title.

It reeks of someone not knowing how to make a title that sounds good that has "ix" in the name somewhere.

"Resident Evil 9, titled Resident Evil 10" is extremely stupid and a big departure from the prior two titles.
Click to expand...

You're aware they can't form a roman 9 without adding something to "Resident Evil", right?

Again, i'm not saying this is legit, i'd argue the opposite, but if they wanna keep the design in line with 7 and Village, the logo will have highlighted letters that form a roman 9.
X might actually be the starting letter of a word, or subtitle or whatever, like Village was.

It's likely a fake "leak", but the Resi 9 thing just isn't the gotcha you think it is.

If anything, the leak showing subtitles for DD2 and MonHun Wilds expansions is a bigger gotcha.
 
darthdiablo said:
You don’t think Capcom already have Switch 2 devkit?
Click to expand...
Capcom are probably the very first developers who'll have the Switch 2 dev kit, since their partnership has been very solid this generation. They were also one of the heavy hitters when it came to supporting the switch in it's first 3 years.
 
Bonejack said:
You're aware they can't form a roman 9 without adding something to "Resident Evil", right?

Again, i'm not saying this is legit, i'd argue the opposite, but if they wanna keep the design in line with 7 and Village, the logo will have highlighted letters that form a roman 9.
X might actually be the starting letter of a word, or whatever.

It's likely a fake "leak", but the Resi 9 thing just isn't the gotcha you think it is.

If anything, the leak showing subtitles for DD2 and MonHun Wilds expansions is a bigger gotcha.
Click to expand...

I do not think that the next Resident Evil game will be titled, “Resident Evil 9, 10” sorry
 
BDGAME said:
That analise is cool, but the right thing to do in RTX ampere is isolate the performance of each RT core to full understand the time it takes to renderize ray tracing, or am I wrong?

So, a RTX 3090 with 82 RT cores can do more and fast ray traces than RTX 3060 with only 24, right? The T239 will have only 12 RT, how much loss it will be and what that amount will do ?
Click to expand...
RT cores don't render anything, shader cores do. 3090 will be faster than a 3060 even with 24 RT cores because there's so much more shader cores
 
redmutineer75 said:
Well, it was Resident Evil 7: Biohazard, and the Japanese title was Biohazard 7: Resident Evil.
Click to expand...
Well yeah, but this one's technically "Resident Evil IX," it's just formatted in a kind of fucky way, as RESIDENT EVIL was.

Granted yeah, the X in this case is perhaps somewhat fuckier - it would be less so if we were at least a couple games removed from a hypothetical RE10, rather than right before it, though. "X" isn't necessarily a roman numeral, after all. Just comes across as one here due to context.

I do not, however, think it being a kind of bad choice precludes it being real.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Question: on whatever node does this end up on, will the Switch 2 be:
  • Undocked: 1080p
  • Docked: 4k
?
Click to expand...
That's the ideal scenario, but like Switch with 720p undocked and 1080p docked, it was missed by a lot of even slightly ambitious games. At least for games that use DLSS, 1080p portable should be an easier goal to reach than 4K docked, since DLSSing to 4x the resolution will be ~4x as expensive, but the GPU certainly won't be running 4x as fast when docked. If a game can DLSS to 1080p portable and docked is ~twice as fast, probably safe to assume that game docked could get a high quality upscale to at least 1500p.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Docked: 810p native upscaled to 1440p (then this image is upscaled to 4K by the TV)
Click to expand...
To the last part, nah, I think it's pretty standard the last few generations that the consoles themselves will do the final scale to whatever you choose as the output resolution. Play a 720p game on Switch set to 1080p output, it's still sending 1080p to TV.
 
Z0m3le said:
No one cares what the node is. You just aren't understanding. The point of discussing the node is to try and figure out the performance of Switch 2, it would limit possible clocks and thus TFLOPs. MLID and this thread agree that the TFLOPs performance range is 3TFLOPs to 4TFLOPs (The DLSS test has a 4.24TFLOPs max clock that is in the leak). There is no conflict here. The debate about process node is to be had by people who do not understand that it is meaningless.
Click to expand...
High performance on a nominally worse node means higher power consumption. I would go against the idea that this is purely academic or meaningless, even if we can "lock in" an expectation of 4TF (personally I wouldn't, but it does seem likely), the node discussion becomes the power discussion, becomes the size, the fan, the battery.

However in this case, you're right in a way still. Either they have gone with 4N, or have power optimised 8nm so much it doesn't matter. However, the risk remains that if it's 8nm, that means a big, hot, power hungry mess, and that would just be unfortunate.

Given Nintendo's MO, their success with handhelds and the sleekness, relatively speaking, of Nintendo Switch, this situation seems EXTREMELY unlikely, I think we agree there, but it's at least worth discussion something that could seriously change our expectations for form factor.

And if the form factor doesn't change despite 8nm, then yeah, that's expecting them to break physics.
 
darthdiablo said:
March 14, 2025 eh?
Click to expand...
With Nintendo moving first party titles to Thursday releases, I find it difficult to believe they would go back to Friday for hardware. But heck, they could if they want to, or this game could come out on day 2 rather than one, or day 8, etc.

More likely than anything this date is simply fake.
 
0
JoshuaJSlone said:
That's the ideal scenario, but like Switch with 720p undocked and 1080p docked, it was missed by a lot of even slightly ambitious games. At least for games that use DLSS, 1080p portable should be an easier goal to reach than 4K docked, since DLSSing to 4x the resolution will be ~4x as expensive, but the GPU certainly won't be running 4x as fast when docked. If a game can DLSS to 1080p portable and docked is ~twice as fast, probably safe to assume that game docked could get a high quality upscale to at least 1500p.

To the last part, nah, I think it's pretty standard the last few generations that the consoles themselves will do the final scale to whatever you choose as the output resolution. Play a 720p game on Switch set to 1080p output, it's still sending 1080p to TV.
Click to expand...

DLSS 4K is massively more expensive than DLSS 1440p so maybe a very basic internal scaler for 1440p to 4K will be done, but I expect the DLSS output res to be 1440p
 
Heck, I swear I almost care more about Nintendo reintroducing a proper pointer (read: no manual reset at all, regardless of the actual implementation technique) with the nextgen Switch (ok ok, nextgen joycons would be more appropriate here) than the SoC specifications.
 
Turrican3 said:
Heck, I swear I almost care more about Nintendo reintroducing a proper pointer (read: no manual reset at all, regardless of the actual implementation technique) with the nextgen Switch (ok ok, nextgen joycons would be more appropriate here) than the SoC specifications.
Click to expand...
As long as it's not beacon/sensor bar based, I'm all for it. The trackpad buttons describe them as being able to measure the distance a finger is away from each button, so face buttons designed like that could theoretically act like a diamond shaped trackpad, input wise. Another idea I keep coming back to is if both controllers have IR Motion Cameras, and ideally multiple, alongside magnetometers, they can autocalibrate using the earth's magnetic field and the room around them.
 
LoneRanger said:
Yeah but its more of a marketing/sales point of view.

I think if anyone of you are expecting a day 1 MH Wild Switch 2 version (that will coincide with Switch 2 launch month) will probably be disappointment.
Click to expand...

You still havent adequately explained why you don’t think MH:Wilds can be a launch title, other than the condescending “you will be disappointment” (sic) take.

I’m not expecting MH:Wilds to be a launch title but I’m also not seeing anything that will prevent it from being one if that’s the plan
 
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Turrican3 said:
Heck, I swear I almost care more about Nintendo reintroducing a proper pointer (read: no manual reset at all, regardless of the actual implementation technique) with the nextgen Switch (ok ok, nextgen joycons would be more appropriate here) than the SoC specifications.
Click to expand...

Kinect 2025 getting rid of manual reset, here we go.
 
0
darthdiablo said:
You still havent adequately explained why you don’t think MH:Wilds can be a launch title.
Click to expand...

It's better to wait for actual confirmation than to expect mh Wild to be ported on switch 2. Too many unknowns here, from the console to the game, and big, ambitious 3rd party games have an history of skipping Nintendo platforms, even if it would have been deemed as obvious.
 
Zedark said:
Yes, no, maybe, I don't know.

This is a per-game question, not a system question. Switch 2 will almost definitely support 1080p in handheld mode and 4K in docked mode. But whether many games will hit both of those targets consistently is still written in the stars. If you expect GTAVI to run at 4K, even after dlss, then you are probably off-base, but a new 3D Mario definitely might, or might not.

Point being, very few gen 9 games run at 4K on PS5/XSX, and Switch 2 will join that trend even for certain first party games imo. Third parties will hit below 4K regularly as well, and certain games might only hit 1080p after DLSS in docked mode (the more demanding ports). And all of that is to be expected, and will probably even look fine.
Click to expand...
so the majority of Switch sucessor games will run at dynamic resolution?
 
0
Concernt said:
As long as it's not beacon/sensor bar based, I'm all for it.
Click to expand...

May I ask why? I mean it more or less worked on the Wii (definitely better than constantly need to recalibrate, I got sooo angry in Metroid Prime Remastered, nothing makes me go mad than failing in a game due to controls), it was cheap and effective.

But I do understand the potential hassle of having to route another device so... I guess a functionally-equivalent method surely exists, right?

Concernt said:
The trackpad buttons describe them as being able to measure the distance a finger is away from each button
Click to expand...

Wait, which trackpad are we talking about?
 
Herb Alpert said:
It's better to wait for actual confirmation than to expect mh Wild to be ported on switch 2. Too many unknowns here, from the console to the game, and big, ambitious 3rd party games have an history of skipping Nintendo platforms, even if it would have been deemed as obvious.
Click to expand...

Except for MH:World, Nintendo consoles has received every mainline MH games since Tri in 2009.
 
Herb Alpert said:
It's better to wait for actual confirmation than to expect mh Wild to be ported on switch 2. Too many unknowns here, from the console to the game, and big, ambitious 3rd party games have an history of skipping Nintendo platforms, even if it would have been deemed as obvious.
Click to expand...
even if Monster Hunter Wild dont release on Switch sucessor, we could expect a portable Monster Hunter made for Nintendo next hardware(just like Monster Hunter Rise was made with Nintendo Switch in mind)
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
I don't know why this has come up once again, but the DLSS Test Tool clocks x power draw have 0 basis on reality and weren't tested at all on real hardware. They shouldn't be taken as an indicative of the clocks Nintendo will choose nor the power draw at such clocks.
Click to expand...
If they had no basis on reality, then what was the point of the tests? They didn't just randomly pick some numbers, made tests, and then tell their superiors that nothing about them has any meaning. They're based on something. Not running on actual hardware doesn't mean years of work and analysis didn't help determine these numbers. They aren't output. They are input. Will those combos be exact on actual hardware? Unlikely, but they would also unlikely be way off.
 
Turrican3 said:
May I ask why? I mean it more or less worked on the Wii (definitely better than constantly need to recalibrate, I got sooo angry in Metroid Prime Remastered, nothing makes me go mad than failing in a game due to controls), it was cheap and effective.

But I do understand the potential hassle of having to route another device so... I guess a functionally-equivalent method surely exists, right?
Click to expand...
Wii Sensor Bar is... Misremembered, I feel. It was nowhere near as reliable as people recall and it wasn't just not necessary to recalibrate, if something went wrong you weren't ALLOWED recalibrate. It was a camera on a stick pointing at two IR LEDs and with the low bitrate feed of the Wii Remote's Bluetooth connection, the motion data of the sensor bar camera combo was jittery, smoothed out by software fixes for individual games.

It was definitely plain inconvenient, having to route another cable to play the console, but there's so much more to it. With gyro, more broadly "inside out" motion, you don't need to lift your hand and point at the screen. You press the calibrate button wherever you're comfortable and can, with small movements, have very accurate control of the camera. We'd lose that, and that's also an accessibility feature, not having to lift the remote up so it can see the screen. Nintendo also doesn't realistically have the caché to dictate how people organise their living rooms, it wouldn't be a hype new feature, it would bring back an inconvenience.

I think the most significant problem is that Nintendo Switch simply isn't a home console, it's a hybrid. Inside-out and gyro tracking can work in all modes, beacon based or sensor bar tracking cannot. An inconvenience that reduces the viability of handheld mode? That takes serious engineering effort to integrate into tabletop mode? One they moved on from, one they put in the Wii U to a deafening silence?

It's not 2006 anymore, better options are absolutely available for tracking controllers, without locking it to one mode, and if then, only when you have your setup organised right.

Nintendo Switch is all about convenience, an experience that just works without hassle, and that is 100% part of the appeal. Requiring reorganisation of entertainment centres or an external accessory with another wire or set of batteries to worry about goes against that, it just doesn't align with the brand.

Turrican3 said:
Wait, which trackpad are we talking about?
Click to expand...

Nintendo has a patent for integrating a trackpad into a set of four face buttons to save space. Generally they don't use ideas they allow to be published early in patent form, but it's a possibility.

I think in an ideal world we get both, high quality inside-out tracking and a trackpad of some description on both controllers. We know from Toy-Con VR that Joy-Con are really quite close to this high quality, no calibration dream, they just need a bit more, perhaps some additional cameras and a signal processor.
 
Wouldn't surprise me if Monster Hunter Wilds is a launch window title.

Rise sold about the same on the Switch (just under 8 million copies) as World did on the PS4 .... Business wise that pretty much sealed the deal on that discussion most likely.

Any game IP that sells about 8 million copies on any platform (XBox, Playstation, Sega 32X, whatever) is going to get future installments of that series. 7-8 million is waaaaaaaaaaaay past the barrier of "well, gee, people on this platform sure like our franchise".

If Rockstar saw that any GTA game could sell 8 million copies on Switch, GTA6 would be 100% on Switch 2, even if they had to make a "from the ground up" port of it.
 
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