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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

That's a profoundly bad name, and one would assume they've learned better than that given their most recent naming-related failure is only a generation past. They need to either slap a 2 on the end or change the name entirely, nothing else is going to adequately distinguish it from its predecessor.
Really? We can‘t really say that right now. Even though I agree that Switch Attach is a terrible name and the chances for it to be true are rather low, if they gave it such a name they surely wouldn’t have done it without a reason (probably a gimmick, which could be really anything from attatchable buttons to attatchable screens).
 
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Really? We can‘t really say that right now. Even though I agree that Switch Attatch is a terrible name and the chances for it to be true are rather low, if they gave it such a name they surely wouldn’t have done it without a reason (probably a gimmick, which could be really anything from attatchable buttons to attatchable screens).
I think my concern is more that the console itself being distinguishable can be irrelevant. If you actually looked into the Wii U one bit, nothing about it resembles the Wii whatsoever, and yet it still took at least some aspect of the hit it took to its popularity on the back of that naming similarity. They made other marketing missteps, to be sure (new controller!!!), but my point is that they have to have learned by now that you need your console to be identifiable purely by name, if it needs to be.
 
Ehhhh... this data will be well over a decade old by the time the Switch 2 launches, so I don't know how relevant it will be
It's the data Nintendo has. Even if it's dated, they are the most recent two consoles Nintendo has released, what good reason would Nintendo have to ignore their lessons?

when it can't account for the massive growth and popularity of the Switch brand.
The Wii and the DS were also kinda popular consoles and huge areas of growth for Nintendo. Just saying.

In fact, the DS was so popular and third parties were still producing games for it, that it was actually a threat to the 3DS. Users were still getting a lot of joy out of their well-supported console, they didn't want to buy a new one at a premium price.

Plus there's the enhanced BC that will serve as an extra selling point - from what I understand, neither the 3DS nor the Wii U had any enhancements to BC, and the 3DS was actually a step down from some DS models when it came to playing DS games.
The 3DS's first party launch title was a sequel to the second-best selling DS game. Nintendogs + Cats. No one was gonna pay 300 bucks to play Nintendogs + Cats. Ask yourself how many people you think would be willing to pay 400 bucks for Tears of the Kingdom to run at a higher frame rate, and if your number if higher than 5% of players, I would respectfully say you're crazy.

The Wii U had a great launch - which promptly went nowhere because the launch failed to generate long term desire in people who had not yet bought the product. Nintendo blew the chance to make a great first impression when maximum eyeballs were on them. It's not about having a good first quarter, it's about establishing the product as desirable to people who can't afford it yet, or who aren't ready to move day one, then maintain that desirability every time they check in.

If you loose that initial mindshare, folks aren't going to pay attention to what comes next, and it won't matter if it's a big huge super appealing game. That's why Nintendo had to make such a big change with the 3DS, and regrab eyeballs. They effectively needed to have a second launch
 
I think my concern is more that the console itself being distinguishable can be irrelevant. If you actually looked into the Wii U one bit, nothing about it resembles the Wii whatsoever, and yet it still took at least some aspect of the hit it took to its popularity on the back of that naming similarity. They made other marketing missteps, to be sure (new controller!!!), but my point is that they have to have learned by now that you need your console to be identifiable purely by name, if it needs to be.
Absolutely, if it has a new gimmick they rather should name it after that, or if it‘s a Power upgrade Switch 2, but Switch Attatch atleast isn‘t as bad as Wii U, so if they market it right, it probably won’t be that bad, even though other names would be preferable of course. Anyway, probably is just a joke from some YouTube employee.
 
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Looking forward to when Nintendo officially reveals the existence of Switch 2 so I can make the "did Nintendo accidentally leak [certain info] about the next Switch hardware?" joke.

I haven't been keeping track but the "accidental leaks" have to be in the double digits at least and the batting average is .000
 
I mean ... that's not exactly ... great, lol. So Remake and Rebirth are Playstation console exclusives.
It's not about being great or terrible. It's a nothing burger. I could tell you last year that Remake was and Rebirth would be PS console exclusive.

And if an XBox version is announced this year, the article was still right at the time of writing. Will it? I doubt it, but I also doubted FFXIV would after so long and yet...
 
What about the XIII collection? Ideal, no. But it WOULD count.
Well, that's what I am thinking. Why haven't we got that yet?
That's a profoundly bad name, and one would assume they've learned better than that given their most recent naming-related failure is only a generation past. They need to either slap a 2 on the end or change the name entirely, nothing else is going to adequately distinguish it from its predecessor.
Honestly, it is slightly better than the old Switcheroo!
 
why not though. 3 great games

Lightning must not be forgotten
Well, I hear a lot of people didn't like FF13. From what I understand, it was the hallway design of the environment. I remember people would joke and called it Final hallway or something like that.

Then I learned about the development of the game. So Square severely underestimated HD development. They actually had to go back to change the engine. When they did they had to start over again. With time being short, they had to make the lamest design, a hallway.
 
Ok so, what we know so far with today's information:

releases through 2024 so far:
  • january: another code recollection
  • february: mario vs dk, sp3 side order
  • march: princess peach showtime
  • april: ???
  • may: paper mario the thousand year door remaster
  • june: luigi's mansion 2 hd remaster
  • july: ???
  • august: ??? my guess: a direct showcasing the releases throughout 2nd half, 2024
  • september: ???
  • october: ??? im guessing switch 2 reveal?
  • november: ??? my guess: pokemon bw remaster
  • december: ???

I really don't know where MP4 would fit in this schedule. Would they release it earlier in april or july~october and then wait a month or 3 for a switch 2 reveal or do they release it later to close the year (perhaps with a new pokemon title) ?
 
It's the data Nintendo has. Even if it's dated, they are the most recent two consoles Nintendo has released, what good reason would Nintendo have to ignore their lessons?


The Wii and the DS were also kinda popular consoles and huge areas of growth for Nintendo. Just saying.

In fact, the DS was so popular and third parties were still producing games for it, that it was actually a threat to the 3DS. Users were still getting a lot of joy out of their well-supported console, they didn't want to buy a new one at a premium price.

The DS was, for sure, but the Wii was definitely not as popular as the Switch overall and I wouldn't expect its follow-up to have as much guaranteed success. The 3DS was also notably overpriced at launch, which really hurt it and contributed to the issue you mention of the DS being a threat to it. Of course the Switch 2 could also be overpriced, we'll have to wait and see on that front.

The 3DS's first party launch title was a sequel to the second-best selling DS game. Nintendogs + Cats. No one was gonna pay 300 bucks to play Nintendogs + Cats. Ask yourself how many people you think would be willing to pay 400 bucks for Tears of the Kingdom to run at a higher frame rate, and if your number if higher than 5% of players, I would respectfully say you're crazy.

The Wii U had a great launch - which promptly went nowhere because the launch failed to generate long term desire in people who had not yet bought the product. Nintendo blew the chance to make a great first impression when maximum eyeballs were on them. It's not about having a good first quarter, it's about establishing the product as desirable to people who can't afford it yet, or who aren't ready to move day one, then maintain that desirability every time they check in.

If you loose that initial mindshare, folks aren't going to pay attention to what comes next, and it won't matter if it's a big huge super appealing game. That's why Nintendo had to make such a big change with the 3DS, and regrab eyeballs. They effectively needed to have a second launch

There are literally millions and millions of people who were willing to spend hundreds of dollars on upgrading to a Switch OLED just so that they could play TotK on a better-looking screen, with no actual improvements to resolution or framerate, no improvements at all for docked players, and no exclusives ever coming to it. I pretty much consider the number of people willing to upgrade to the Switch 2 for things other than first-party exclusives, so:
  • 4K 60fps Switch games
  • cross-gen games like Metroid Prime 4
  • third-party titles that weren't on Switch
  • "it's the new Switch, buying no matter what"
to be higher than that - probably about 10 million, so more than the launch stock.

I absolutely agree that they need to capture mindshare as quickly as possible, though. Even if Nintendo launched the system without exclusive first-party games, which I don't think they would ever do, they would absolutely show off exclusives right from the jump - even Xbox, which actually did launch with no first-party exclusives and didn't have one for ages (and was also sold out for ages, just saying) started its marketing with a big first-party exclusive graphical showcase in the Hellblade 2 trailer.
 
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It's not about being great or terrible. It's a nothing burger. I could tell you last year that Remake was and Rebirth would be PS console exclusive.

And if an XBox version is announced this year, the article was still right at the time of writing. Will it? I doubt it, but I also doubted FFXIV would after so long and yet...
Note the term WAS. Remake WAS a PS console exclusive, but not anymore. That was done in 2022.

Rebirth IS currently a PS console exclusive. That will be until May. It doesn't rule out ports. Especially after what we've seen with games we thought would never hit Switch.
 
So Paper Mario is May and LM2 is June. They are not spreading them out over the year, so they must have something later in the year I'd think. Curious to see what it will be.

Also, Pyoooooooroooooooooo!!!

Anything, really. Could be absolutely nothing, could be a full spec leak.
Metroid Prime 4 as the Switch holiday game for this year, unless MP4 is a cross-gen release
 
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I really don't know where MP4 would fit in this schedule. Would they release it earlier in april or july~october and then wait a month or 3 for a switch 2 reveal or do they release it later to close the year (perhaps with a new pokemon title) ?
I would personally prefer if Retro/Nintendo just decide to remaster 2-3 and have a dual release on the switch 2. Like metroid prime 4 can be the perfect showcase of Ray tracing, performance and high fidelity. Like i think metroid prime 4 on switch will look similar to metroid prime remaster, except maybe it'll be 30 FPS and 900p on the switch.

Like in my personnel opinion prime 4 can WOW the hardcore gamer ground and the new 3d mario can please the overall audience, because Nintendo this generation has been,, the switch is for all type of gamers''. and having a gritty first person shooter and a fun 3d platformer on launch would be great. (extra points if we had persona 3 reload)

Plus it wouldn't cannibalise the sale of Metroid prime since it's a launch title of a new shiny system.
 
Unless Switch 2 is still releasing this year...

👀

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Ok so, what we know so far with today's information:

releases through 2024 so far:
  • january: another code recollection
  • february: mario vs dk, sp3 side order
  • march: princess peach showtime
  • april: ???
  • may: paper mario the thousand year door remaster
  • june: luigi's mansion 2 hd remaster
  • july: ???
  • august: ??? my guess: a direct showcasing the releases throughout 2nd half, 2024
  • september: ???
  • october: ??? im guessing switch 2 reveal?
  • november: ??? my guess: pokemon bw remaster
  • december: ???

I really don't know where MP4 would fit in this schedule. Would they release it earlier in april or july~october and then wait a month or 3 for a switch 2 reveal or do they release it later to close the year (perhaps with a new pokemon title) ?
IMHO, they're not releasing MP4 before Switch 2 launches, I think MP4 will be a 2025 title, for both Switch 1 and 2.

LOZ:TP, LOZ:WW, Prime 2 and Prime 3 remastered to round out 2H 2024.
 
I said above that if price were the only issue, SEC 8nm is probably the best value. But it's not the only issue. We know how big Drake is, so we can estimate it's power draw based on Orin... and the numbers just don't look great! It's hard to believe an SEC 8nm product of that size can go into a handheld and offer anything resembling Switch battery life. But some benchmarks on Lovelace look almost exactly where you want them to be...
Out of curiosity, if for some commercial reasons Nintendo and/or Nvidia wanted to favor Samsung, do you think the other nodes you are talking about could be viable alternatives to TSMC in terms of technological performance?

I understand that Samsung 8nm is the cheapest, but could other Samsung nodes for example also be cheaper than their direct competitors at TSMC?

I find the idea that Nvidia and Nintendo could reach a relevant energy budget even with Samsung in 8nm interesting and stimulating, but anyway wouldn’t this node be a problem for future updates (Lite model and others)?
 
Note the term WAS. Remake WAS a PS console exclusive, but not anymore. That was done in 2022.
The term "console exclusive" is used for games which are in no other consoles but are still on a non-console platform (almost always PC).

If it's only on PS it's just "PS exclusive" and if it's also on PC it's "PS console exclusive". Same goes for XBox and Switch, as the term is used by all manufacturers.

Remake still is a console exclusive and only a port to XBox or Nintendo or a new entrant would change that.
 
I find the idea that Nvidia and Nintendo could reach a relevant energy budget even with Samsung in 8nm interesting and stimulating, but anyway wouldn’t this node be a problem for future updates (Lite model and others)?
realistically the TSMC 4-5 would make more sense since it's smaller and would have a better battery life and also would mean Nintendo wouldn't need to overclocked the system as much and i would presume Nintendo would like to utilise the tegra 239 and it's fullest potential since it's the most expensive part of the switch 2 (i think).

like why buy a expensive CPU which is handmade specifically for you and not utilise it at it's fullest potential?

Also the people who're creating the switch 2 are thinking long term and are discussing the best possible strategy to make the system last for 7-10 years and also thinking of revisions like the switch lite and Oled. and a 8NM wouldn't make sense for a 6-5.5 inch switch lite.

But let me know if i got something wrong 😁
 
Out of curiosity, if for some commercial reasons Nintendo and/or Nvidia wanted to favor Samsung, do you think the other nodes you are talking about could be viable alternatives to TSMC in terms of technological performance?

I understand that Samsung 8nm is the cheapest, but could other Samsung nodes for example also be cheaper than their direct competitors at TSMC?

I find the idea that Nvidia and Nintendo could reach a relevant energy budget even with Samsung in 8nm interesting and stimulating, but anyway wouldn’t this node be a problem for future updates (Lite model and others)?
I could be wrong, but I believe that all Samsung Nodes are cheaper than their TSMC counterparts, as they generally have worse yields and efficiency.
 
If you loose that initial mindshare, folks aren't going to pay attention to what comes next, and it won't matter if it's a big huge super appealing game. That's why Nintendo had to make such a big change with the 3DS, and regrab eyeballs. They effectively needed to have a second launch
Happened with me and PS5 (70$ games did not help)
I feel like MP2/MP3 for 2H 2024 more of what fills out that 80% chance. MP4, dual launch for Switch 1 & 2.

Cannot see Nintendo announcing and/or releasing MP4 and not re-releasing MP2/MP3 at all after MP1:Remastered
... Not sure if this helps the hype.
MP 2 and 3 where less unanimously praised then 1, and having a proper remaster of 1 and a port/less ambitious one for the other 2 would not help the comparison. Maybe the high of 1 is enough for 4, and then releasing the other 2 after 4 was a success as a victory celebration?
Note the term WAS. Remake WAS a PS console exclusive, but not anymore. That was done in 2022.

Rebirth IS currently a PS console exclusive. That will be until May. It doesn't rule out ports. Especially after what we've seen with games we thought would never hit Switch.
Console exclusive means only on that console and maybe pc, otherwise we're just talking about exclusive. It's on pc, but still exclusive to Sony consoles.
(Arguably that's more then one console but let's say console manufacturer platform exclusive...)
 
... Not sure if this helps the hype.
MP 2 and 3 where less unanimously praised then 1, and having a proper remaster of 1 and a port/less ambitious one for the other 2 would not help the comparison. Maybe the high of 1 is enough for 4, and then releasing the other 2 after 4 was a success as a victory celebration?

While I agree with you MP2/3 isn't as universally beloved as MP1, let's be real, if we were to come up with a release timeline designed to tank MP2/3 sales as much as possible, releasing those after MP4 would be the way to do it. Why would Nintendo want to tank the MP2/3 numbers even more?

I was suggesting MP2/MP3 might be released to round out 2H 2024, more as a way to space things out while we wait patiently for Switch 2 and/or MP4, not that those titles are designed to hype up MP4.

MP1 Remastered wasn't released to hype up MP4 either. That got released because it spaces things out, to fill in some blanks/voids, etc. Are we feeling that MP1 Remastered is what is hyping up MP4 at the moment? It doesn't.
 
While I agree with you MP2/3 isn't as universally beloved as MP1, let's be real, if we were to come up with a release timeline designed to tank MP2/3 sales as much as possible, releasing those after MP4 would be the way to do it. Why would Nintendo want to tank the MP2/3 numbers even more?

I was suggesting MP2/MP3 might be released to round out 2H 2024, more as a way to space things out while we wait patiently for Switch 2 and/or MP4, not that those titles are designed to hype up MP4.

MP1 Remastered wasn't released to hype up MP4 either. That got released because it spaces things out, to fill in some blanks/voids, etc. Are we feeling that MP1 Remastered is what is hyping up MP4 at the moment? It doesn't.
If the rumour about MP2/3 remaster being much more straight conversions than 1 was is true, I think they should release them as a pack. They probably wont though.
 
If the rumour about MP2/3 remaster being much more straight conversions than 1 was is true, I think they should release them as a pack. They probably wont though.
Interesting. I was thinking they would probably pack MP2/MP3 together, to try to entice a bit better sales numbers. But yeah, who knows what Nintendo is going to do here (if there still is a plan to release MP2 and MP3 eventually)
 
The term "console exclusive" is used for games which are in no other consoles but are still on a non-console platform (almost always PC).

If it's only on PS it's just "PS exclusive" and if it's also on PC it's "PS console exclusive". Same goes for XBox and Switch, as the term is used by all manufacturers.

Remake still is a console exclusive and only a port to XBox or Nintendo or a new entrant would change that.
I have a feeling there might be ports down the line... perhaps only if the finish the trilogy first.
 
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Technically, the Remake's exclusivity wrapped up in 2022. Rebirth's doesn't until May 29. Either way that is interesting that SE just ported over Remake to PS5 and gave it a new subtitle. That would be interesting to see them do on Switch 2. As for Rebirth being able to run on the system, that will depend on its specs, and of course, the DLSS. The latter will be a HUGE difference for past Nintendo handhelds. Nintendo will have to future proof their handheld.
Re DLSS in the FFVII remake series, that's one concern I'd have regarding a Switch 2 version. The PC version of FFVII Remake Intergrade is one of the most recent Big games that supports none of the fancy modern upscalers. And it doesn't sound like PS5 Rebirth is doing any high quality upscaling, either. So I'm a bit worried this is sort of a Dragon Quest XI situation, where they started working on Remake on some version of UE4 before upscaling support was simple, are sticking with it for all three games to keep things moving along, and it would take a lot of work to port it to a newer version of UE.
If the rumour about MP2/3 remaster being much more straight conversions than 1 was is true, I think they should release them as a pack. They probably wont though.
Don't know why not. It would be just what they did with Pikmin 1+2.
 
Interesting. I was thinking they would probably pack MP2/MP3 together, to try to entice a bit better sales numbers. But yeah, who knows what Nintendo is going to do here (if there still is a plan to release MP2 and MP3 eventually)
The rumor is that they won't be made by Retro, and they won't be as remastered as 1, if I recall.
 
FF7R is interesting as a series in that the visuals were so instantly outdated and there’s so much demand for a version of the trilogy that is one game without filler, that I could see them working on an FFVII Remake Remake right after FF7R3 is released.

A UE6, path traced FF7R with higher quality textures and good upscaling and no pop in that moved the filler from each game to side quests would be really anticipated by a lot of people.
 
MP1 Remastered wasn't released to hype up MP4 either. That got released because it spaces things out, to fill in some blanks/voids, etc. Are we feeling that MP1 Remastered is what is hyping up MP4 at the moment? It doesn't.
Personally, I have the absolute conviction that MP Remastered has allowed the people of Retro to reconnect with Metroid and that this is its main function.
 
Personally, I have the absolute conviction that MP Remastered has allowed the people of Retro to reconnect with Metroid and that this is its main function.
I felt like that was the role of Metroid Dread (even though the game is 2D). If we're talking strictly about "reconnecting with Metroid" as an overall franchise/IP.

I guess MPR being released to hype up MP4 very well could be the main function. I'm just assuming it's not, because MP1 Remastered was rumored to have being sat on for a very long time (almost a year if I'm recalling correctly).

Then it finally got released, when the timing is right, I assume, to space things out. If MPR was intended to be released as a way to hype up MP4, they wouldn't have released MPR that far apart from whatever the MP4 release date is.
 
Interesting quote from Screenrant, not from the developers, mind you, but from their interpretation:
While the latest release, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, won't be played on a Series X|S any time soon, that doesn't mean the remakes won't ever land on Microsoft's consoles.

I'm not saying that I know these will come to additional platforms. I don't. But it does imply that the console exclusivity is not forever.
 
Personally I don't think Google cares all that much about Apple having the best ARM cores in the industry
Yeah, I wasn't necessarily spinning a likely story, so much as suggesting ways that other players unrelated to Nintendo and Nvidia could shake up the technology base.

Excellent post! A couple points of feedback.

TSMC N7 and N7P use DUV only, EUV is utilized on N7+ and N6 within the N7 family
Thank you for this update! I am, admittedly, a novice here, knowing more about server technology than GPUs/mobile.
 
Interesting quote from Screenrant, not from the developers, mind you, but from their interpretation:


I'm not saying that I know these will come to additional platforms. I don't. But it does imply that the console exclusivity is not forever.
That's just them kinda reiterating what gene park said when they amended the original article. They don't know anything.
 
Out of curiosity, if for some commercial reasons Nintendo and/or Nvidia wanted to favor Samsung, do you think the other nodes you are talking about could be viable alternatives to TSMC in terms of technological performance?

I understand that Samsung 8nm is the cheapest, but could other Samsung nodes for example also be cheaper than their direct competitors at TSMC?
There are a couple of reasons that no one really expects anything other than SEC 8nm and TSMC 4N. The big one is that picking the "cheapest" viable node for each product is, on the whole, more expensive than just picking a small number of nodes for all products, and sticking to them across the board.

The primary reason is just flexibility. Capacity gets purchased in advance. If you don't use all your capacity, you sell it back to the foundry at pennies on the dollar. You need extra at the last minute you pay a massive premium. Using a small set of nodes, and being able to move your own products around to make room, or use up extra is worth the cost of not being able to perfectly cost optimize every product

Second is expertise. In the design phase, knowing really exact details about node behavior can be useful from mapping out performance targets to setting up the simulator. It's obviously useful during the design phase, and then later when bug-fixing, or building the tools to verify the chips as they come off the line. Specializing in a small number of nodes just makes all of this more efficient,

Third is micro-controller reuse. Chips are full of tiny controllers that are reused across lots of different products. Memory controllers, PCIe controllers, security modules. Just like the rest of the chip, these parts need to be designed for each node they're on. Reusing nodes makes it easier to reuse these tiny subsets of the chip across your various products.

To answer your question, it may or may not be possible for Samsung to offer a more advanced node at a better price than TSMC. Whether or not they could offer such a good price that these additional costs and risk factors are worth it, that's pretty doubtful.

I find the idea that Nvidia and Nintendo could reach a relevant energy budget even with Samsung in 8nm interesting and stimulating, but anyway wouldn’t this node be a problem for future updates (Lite model and others)?
No one really knows! The math suggests that SEC 8nm isn't viable. If it is viable, then our data is incomplete. If our data is incomplete, it's impossible to guess how far that node can go.

My personal assumption is that Nintendo talked to Nvidia to ensure that they wound up with a custom chip that matches their long term needs. That either the chip is usable across a range of formfactors, or Nintendo is confident that a redesign for a new node in the future will be a worthwhile use of money, relative to the savings of using this node now.

I truly doubt that Nintendo has locked in plans for the entire generation worth of revisions. I'm sure they have tentative plans, even strong tentative plans. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were choosing the best chip for their flagship product first, and willing to figure out the details of revisions later. While I expect a smaller/tougher/cheaper variant at some point, it's hard for me to speculate what Nintendo would want out of a revision of a product that hasn't even been announced yet.
 
Don't know why not. It would be just what they did with Pikmin 1+2.

That's interesting.

Pikmin 4 revealed September 13, 2022
Pikmin 4 dated February 8, 2023
Pikmin 1+2 revealed and released June 21, 2023
Pikmin 4 released July 21, 2023

If MP4 is a holiday release this year (I'm leaning more towards that than any other scenario) they could maybe condense that into 6-8 months for MP4.

Reveal it in April. Either with the release date or save that for a separate thing in June.
Reveal and release MP 2+3 in Fall 2024.
Release MP4 in Nov/Dec 2024.

Though I'm sure they have other big game(s) that they are sitting on. So if they wanted to move MP4 to 2025, they could just do the reveal/release for MP 2+3 in Jan/Feb for Switch 1.
 
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It was discussed before that even if TSMC 4N is cheaper per wafer than SEC8N, it could be cheaper with SEC8N because Samsung sell based on working chips, not the whole wafer. I think that's correct. But then there's the aspect of yields. Even if Samsung sells based on actual working yields rather than per wafer, how big is that yield generally compared to TSMC 4N? I think it was said SEC8N definitely has lower yields, but I don't recall the actual number/%.

We can all imagine that Nintendo wants to sell a good 150+ million Switch NG systems throughout its life, and they would need to have extra for purposes of repair and such. Even if that is spread across 8 years, that's still an average of 18.75 million per year minimum. Given these facilities fabricating the SoCs are already in business making chips for other contracts, there's only so much room. With the situation with SEC8N having lower yields, could availability be a problem? When Nvidia was making the RTX 30 line using SEC8N, how many of those GPUs were being sold per year? I had looked at some old data, and for Q4 2021, it showed Nvidia having sold just over 10 million, but the chart I saw was based on the combined sales of all Nvidia's GPUs during that quarter, so it wouldn't be just the RTX 30 line. Even if it was just that line, there are multiple levels of that which make use of chip binning. For chips that don't match a target spec, they drop clocks and disable cores to use them for the lesser versions. A good way to not waste silicon. With consoles however, especially with custom chips, this isn't really an option, is it? They'd want the highest yield that match the expected specs.

We already know what's expected in the T239 from the Nvidia leak, particularly having 12 SMs accessible by devs. But when it comes to chip yields, this is the expected minimum number, not the maximum. So, it's possible that the T239 could have been made with more SMs for increased yield? That would mean the chips could be even bigger, right?

Maybe I'm just being long-winded about this, all because I want to imagine that TSMC 4N is what they are truly going to use.
 
No one really knows! The math suggests that SEC 8nm isn't viable. If it is viable, then our data is incomplete. If our data is incomplete, it's impossible to guess how far that node can go.

My personal assumption is that Nintendo talked to Nvidia to ensure that they wound up with a custom chip that matches their long term needs. That either the chip is usable across a range of formfactors, or Nintendo is confident that a redesign for a new node in the future will be a worthwhile use of money, relative to the savings of using this node now.

It's it possible that 4N dropping in price over the next few years could come into play? I was thinking that it being a newer node might mean it has more room to drop than an older node like 8nm, although the N3 pricing makes me question that.
 
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