omniryu
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I never bought elden ring. I am hoping it will get FF14
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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VagrantValmar
#TeamMarch2025 and eternal #TeamSFColors
They seemed pretty happy porting CC Reunion to Xbox which is an even smaller game.
People not buying FF on Xbox is basically a myth. Even Unicorn Overlord, an even smaller game is releasing there just fine.
Plus, assuming that was true, how can you build an audience if you don't sell them your games?
Maxrunner
Bob-omb
ANd probably a dark souls trilogy
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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Which Falcom had to learn the hard way
omniryu
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This!
robertman2
Chain Chomp
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Unicorn Overlord will be unbelievably lucky to hit 10k units on Xbox. It likely only got ported due to Sega demanding it, or Microsoft bankrolling the port.
Vanillaware is likely smart enough to realize chasing Xbox sales for this kind of game isn't worth the time or hassle.
TinyPikachu
Rattata
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I guess March 2025 is looking at lot more likely then?
Steve
Koopa
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The upside is that we might finally get Twilight princess and Windwaker port, if we're feeling optimistic we might get metroid prime 4 this holiday...
Like actually, i wouldn't be surprised if this year Nintendo will just make a couple of ports and then called it a day.
For me, this is one of the big up in the air items. I like to think that it will. I think for S3 they'll still be ARM and NV. I think if they know how to make S1 games work on S2 that they'll be able to make them work on S3 even if they're a bit clunky.
I like the idea that a decade from now when I pick up my brand new S3, I'll still be able to play Breath of the Wild and Suika game without waiting for an upgrade patch or making another purchase.
I think that when we see what backwards compatibility looks like in S2 (possibly via gbatemp or something similar) that we'll see something of what's to come in the S3 generation.
oldpuck
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I’m sure they’ll want to continue BC, but I’m not sure they’ll be on the same tech stack. Or form factor. It’s a year till Switch 2 and every reason to believe next gen will be longer. Nine years is a long ass time.
ARM seemed dead-set on imploding not that long ago, and Nvidia has fucked this up before. Nvidia blows their security on T239, Google goes all on on RISC-V to counter Apple’s dominance of ARM, and Intel manages to get to a place where they have competitive designs for both CPU and GPU and they own the foundry.
It could get crazy
It really could. I like to think that Nintendo's conservatism will keep them on what seems like a safe path.
I don't think 10 years is enough for RISC-V to make such a big impact that ARM changes it's licensing strategy - ARM will still probably have a significant licensing cost while RISC-V's pricing structure will be non-centralized and less expensive. There's a lot of things that we'll have to see before we can really predict. The one thing that will probably hold things to ARM, and has held things to X86 is the legacy software and the availability of tools and libraries.
The AI assisted rendering (what we keep seeing hints of) seems like a too good to be true for a while. The technology demos are neat, but they're still just technology demos.
We're way into diminishing returns on lithography and process shrinks, but so far we're only beginning to see glimmers of what may or may not be next for compute.
I'm still pretty convinced that Nintendo will hold onto NV and ARM for a 3rd generation of Switch. After that though, RISC-V won't be so new, and AI assisted rendering won't be so new, and maybe we will see the next thing in compute or battery technology. And I'll be super old if I'm even around in 2 decades - like that guy that's my avatar.
omniryu
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The days of siding on one platform is over. You put your game everywhere you can. Why? Because you are trying to make as much money as you can. Also, 10,000 is still enough money for a port to be worth it.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
Honestly I would take those 10k sales considering their statements over the last few days.
except PC. vanillaware dislikes pc
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At one of the Gamestops I have connection to nobody pre-ordered the game on Xbox (and this is a popular location).
Most pre-ordered on Switch
Second is PS5
Im sure they want to continue BC with the previous console, but not so sure about 2 gens back. I have the same feeling with Sony.
The only company I feel reasonably confident about perpetual BC is MS.
Was it retracted?
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Yes, it originally said "Securing the Final Fantasy VII trilogy as a console exclusive is a feather in the PlayStation cap.", people freaked out extrapolating it to means it would never come out in other consoles ever and then the author corrected it to "Remake" and "Rebirth" instead of trilogy.
So, basically the author was just careless when describing the current situation, rather than sharing anything we didn't know about the exclusivity deal.
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
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Honest mistakes happen, and it's probably fair to assume that a lot of specifics surrounding exclusivity deals are just outright unknown. I've been in the Persona fandom since around 2021 after I played Persona 4 Golden on PC, and the general assumption was that the games were under exclusivity contracts... but I don't think that was ever the case, rather Atlus being reluctant to make multi-platform games.
It's more likely in this case that there's exclusivity between Sony and Square Enix, but we'll have to see for sure when the Switch 2 launches and FF7R just outright never comes to the device. When that happen, then we'll likely know.
BreakAtmo
Moblin
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I saw someone say they need to stop being Vanillaware and become Neapolitanware.
Steve
Koopa
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It would be a missed opportunity if square didn't port the ff7 remake on the switch 2, especially since it's an handheld and would be a good way to boost popularity in japan since japan is becoming more into a Pc/handheld market and consoles hardware are slowly loosing popularity. Plus Sony are becoming less interest in the japanese market, since they moved their headquarter in the USA.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
There is an exclusivity contract between them, SE even provided how long the game had to be 100% PS exclusive (6 to 3 months for each game) but they went way beyond the deadline.
FFXVI producer said that it was made solely for the PS5 and they would only start to work on PC port after it was complete and wouldn't be done by the time the contract expires.
With FFVIIRs episodic nature, even a 4 years gap is pushing already. So, Part 3 is almost certainly PS-first too and finishing it will likely be prioritized over any port (and outsourcing still requires overseeing). But that doesn't means the ports won't come in the next year's either.
Maxrunner
Bob-omb
What a waste of money from Sony.
rick_C
Piranha Plant
From Sony point of view, it is not wasting money. If they can damage other platforms, they succeed. Profit is not important(unless it make huge loss). When Sony reject the COD cross-platform contract, and said something like "i just want to block the merge", its cleared to everyone.
Maxrunner
Bob-omb
The game seems to be flopping in Japan compared to the first one. So its for both Sony and Square.
ohlawd
bruh
hey if it's a waste then it's a good thing
Jon Turner
Rattata
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That's why I assume it's not going to stay exclusive.
Jon Turner
Rattata
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That's why I am assuming the ports won't start until the trilogy is finished. I am, however, getting weary of people using this latest "news" as if to confirm that neither remake nor Rebirth will ever hit Switch 2. Especially since the article took back that story.
Steve
Koopa
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Sexual references of this nature make other users feel uncomfortable. Please express your disappointment in a more appropriate way in the future. - big lantern ghost, Tangerine Cookie, VolcanicDynamo
Nintendo is literally blue balling me so hard.
It's becoming unbearable that it's so obvious we'll get a new console next year
It's becoming unbearable that it's so obvious we'll get a new console next year
MusicProposition
Bob-omb
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why that?
ziggyrivers
thunder
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Mar10 (March 10) is on a Monday, has there ever been a Monday console launch?
Just curious
Steve
Koopa
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Steve
Koopa
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Sadly no, but with enough copium it might just happen
redmutineer75
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Sorry, misclicked
ohlawd
bruh
I like the seeing the natural conclusion of things. if a good decision made for a good result I'm happy. likewise when a bad decision results in a bad outcome that's good too. SE have made many bad decisions so I'm hoping this latest flop from them will get them to do better next time
KeijiKG
Moblin
I mean LEGO is one of the few toys that still sell like gangbusters and possibly even gets pre-orders, so it makes sense to announce something's coming months to a year in advance.
If Mario Kart X (I believe Tour was 9 the whole time, you don't have to agree with that) does launch in 2025, it wouldn't be a bad idea considering it usually sells systems.
Usually, since like well... Wii U didn't get any of that luck.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
If you mean FF would be timed exclusive even without Sony paying, I'd say it's more likely that the agreement included that.
If Sony funded the game, even partially, they would certainly rather that budget NOT being spent at all on non-PS versions.
It could also be that Sony has the right to extend the exclusivity deal until a specific date and they don't want to start it until they know when they can release it.
HankyPanky
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a new MK is absolutely coming next year it's not even a question. the only question is when as it would be a HUGE launch title (presuming March). but if 3D Mario is at launch they could hold off and have it be THE big Holidays game.
KeijiKG
Moblin
Given recent announcements, it would seem Sony and Square-Enix have a mutual understanding to prioritize profits over pride as both after realizing that console exclusivity isn't the game winning strategy it once was in the 90s and early 2000s-2010s. I'm sure both are eating crow what with Rebirth's sales in that they can't hoard the title like a dragon for another year in the interest of sales.
Intergrade would probably be an easy target to port to NX2 but even if they announce other console ports this year, I still would think the NX2 conversion might need a bit more time in the oven for an optimization or two, maybe with some help from a trusted party at Nintendo helping with the port job..
oldpuck
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@boodream was asking some pages back about the implications of a foundry shift - TSMC to Samsung to Intel. I keep meaning to answer it, so gonna take a stab at it now.
If you understand the basic idea of what a node offers, you get the foundry differences. These three foundries offer different nodes, in different classes. Within a class of nodes one foundries product might be "better" than the other. If you don't, here is a very short summary:
Smaller process nodes make smaller transistors, which make chips smaller and more power efficient. Smaller chips mean a smaller device and/or you can pack more cores in there for more performance. More power efficient means better battery life and/or better clock speeds. Smaller and more power efficient also means less heat, which can indirectly make your device smaller, as it has to have less cooling. Smaller chips used to also mean cheaper chips, but that's not longer strictly speaking true.
There are lots of foundry companies, but there are only three that really matter in this discussion.
TSMC - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited - is the big dog, the largest foundry in the world, and they are "pure play". By "pure play" that means that they don't make chips for themselves - customers never have to worry about buying foundry capacity from a company that competes with them in another market.
SEC - Samsung Electronics Co, Limited - is the second largest foundry in the world, and they are not pure play, obviously. However, SEC has it's own corporate structure while being wholly owned, in order to maintain a certain amount of independence.
IFS - Intel Foundry Services - has a similar model to SEC. They have a similar corporate model to SEC. This is Intel's second attempt at a foundry service, their first IFC, crashed and burned. There is an interesting technical/history lesson here about why these companies exist, but it's too big a tangent at the moment.
Practically speaking, IFS is off the table. Even if Nvidia were willing to put Drake over there (and there are lots of business and technical reasons they probably wouldn't), it's just not got a node advanced enough in a timeline that matters.
Historically speaking TSMC and SEC have gone back and forth on whose node in each class is dominant. But lately, SEC has slipped a lot. This is not so much a quality issue as a timing issue. Everything in the 7nm class of nodes and beyond uses (partially or fully) a new kind of lithography tech called EUV. EUV machines were exceptionally rare at a time SEC's cash reserves were low, and TSMC just got more, and sooner. SEC invested a lot of effort in optimizing their older nodes, and cutting their cost, in order to make them competitive. That it worked at all is kind of impressive, but it's left SEC behind on most fronts.
A short diversion on node classes (or node families). In the modern era, switching to the "next node" means not just improving the underlying technology, but changing some of it outright. Chip designs aren't compatible across the technology changes. As a result, foundries started making half nodes and sub nodes. Half nodes are big updates to node tech that doesn't change the underlying technology and doesn't require a design change (though you might want to anyway to get the most use out of it). Sub nodes are versions of nodes that have been optimized for a particular kind of customer.
With all that backstory, let's roughly rank the nodes by quality, and talk about the known differences between them. I'm not listing every node, just the most interesting for this discussion
10nm class: SEC 8nm
You start to see the confusion of naming immediately. 8nm is the Samsung's most advanced half-node in the 10nm class. This is the least "advanced" node that anyone thinks is viable. Orin is on SEC 8nm, as are the whole line of RTX 30 cards. If you've seen power draw analysis on this forum about Drake, it comes from looking at Nvidia's other 8nm products.
Samsung is highly driven to offer deals, so despite being the largest chips, physically, it's probably the cheapest option. SEC doesnt list prices on their website, so we're guessing on that, but it's a good guess. And I don't mean "lowest price" I mean "best value." As in dollar per TFLOP, this is probably the best deal. If cost were the only driver, this would almost definitely give you the most powerful machine, because Nintendo could pack in the cores all damn day.
7nm class: TSMC N7, SEC 7LPP
TSMC N7 is the node used by the original Xbox/PS5/Steam Deck chips. It's about a 30% improvement in GPU clock speeds at the same amount of electricity as SEC 8nm. SEC's 7LPP process is, as best anyone on the outside can tell, in the same ballpark at N7. However, it was late to the party, and N7 dominated.
As I said before - crossing node classes or crossing foundries requires a chip redesign, and Orin/RTX 30 (Drake's sister chip and GPU parent, respectively) are on SEC 8nm. However Ampere, the architecture behind RTX 30, was originally designed for N7, and the data center products still use it. Nvidia redesigned Ampere for the SEC 8nm node for cost reasons, fairly last minute.
ARM, the CPU in Drake, has designs for multiple nodes, including these. So there is reason to believe that Nvidia might be able to cheaply get a design of Drake on N7. However there is also
7nm class: TSMC N6, SEC 6LPP
These are TSMC and SEC's half node upgrade over their initial 7nm products. They should be design compatible with their predecessor, and MS/Sony/Valve have all moved their consoles to N6. It's only slightly smaller, but it offers as much as a 30% improvement in electrical efficiency.
All three of these companies moved on mostly for cost reasons. TSMC has been retiring the original N7 node, but also the improved electrical efficiency allowed MS and Sony to lightly slim down their hardware, which was a cost savings for them both (lighter machines mean lower shipping costs, smaller heat sinks and fans means cheaper manufacturing cost).
I would call N6 the sleeper possibility, as it it an advanced, long-lived node that is cost effective, and is design compatible with N7, where Nvidia already has versions of Ampere and ARM designs.
5nm class: TSMC 4N, SEC 4LPP
TSMC 4N is a sub-node of TSMC N5. N5 is their first 5nm class node, 4N is a subnode that is exclusively for Nvidia's use. It's where Ada Lovelace is manufactured. It offers something like a 50% leap over N7 in both size and power draw, though it's a little hard to be sure, since Lovelace includes a bunch of its own internal power draw changes. SEC 4LPP is a Samsung 5nm class node that rolled out around the same time that 4N did, and I'm including it here mostly for completeness.
I said above that if price were the only issue, SEC 8nm is probably the best value. But it's not the only issue. We know how big Drake is, so we can estimate it's power draw based on Orin... and the numbers just don't look great! It's hard to believe an SEC 8nm product of that size can go into a handheld and offer anything resembling Switch battery life. But some benchmarks on Lovelace look almost exactly where you want them to be...
There is, of course, the cost of the redesign, but here we see that once again Nvidia has the tech on this process node. Lovelace was originally thought of internally as Ampere 2.0, and they are very similar. And we know from leaks that Drake contains at least some of Lovelace's updates. It seems entirely possible that, just as PS5's GPU was essentially a "halfway point" between RDNA and RDNA2, that Drake's GPU is similar.
If you understand the basic idea of what a node offers, you get the foundry differences. These three foundries offer different nodes, in different classes. Within a class of nodes one foundries product might be "better" than the other. If you don't, here is a very short summary:
Smaller process nodes make smaller transistors, which make chips smaller and more power efficient. Smaller chips mean a smaller device and/or you can pack more cores in there for more performance. More power efficient means better battery life and/or better clock speeds. Smaller and more power efficient also means less heat, which can indirectly make your device smaller, as it has to have less cooling. Smaller chips used to also mean cheaper chips, but that's not longer strictly speaking true.
There are lots of foundry companies, but there are only three that really matter in this discussion.
TSMC - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited - is the big dog, the largest foundry in the world, and they are "pure play". By "pure play" that means that they don't make chips for themselves - customers never have to worry about buying foundry capacity from a company that competes with them in another market.
SEC - Samsung Electronics Co, Limited - is the second largest foundry in the world, and they are not pure play, obviously. However, SEC has it's own corporate structure while being wholly owned, in order to maintain a certain amount of independence.
IFS - Intel Foundry Services - has a similar model to SEC. They have a similar corporate model to SEC. This is Intel's second attempt at a foundry service, their first IFC, crashed and burned. There is an interesting technical/history lesson here about why these companies exist, but it's too big a tangent at the moment.
Practically speaking, IFS is off the table. Even if Nvidia were willing to put Drake over there (and there are lots of business and technical reasons they probably wouldn't), it's just not got a node advanced enough in a timeline that matters.
Historically speaking TSMC and SEC have gone back and forth on whose node in each class is dominant. But lately, SEC has slipped a lot. This is not so much a quality issue as a timing issue. Everything in the 7nm class of nodes and beyond uses (partially or fully) a new kind of lithography tech called EUV. EUV machines were exceptionally rare at a time SEC's cash reserves were low, and TSMC just got more, and sooner. SEC invested a lot of effort in optimizing their older nodes, and cutting their cost, in order to make them competitive. That it worked at all is kind of impressive, but it's left SEC behind on most fronts.
A short diversion on node classes (or node families). In the modern era, switching to the "next node" means not just improving the underlying technology, but changing some of it outright. Chip designs aren't compatible across the technology changes. As a result, foundries started making half nodes and sub nodes. Half nodes are big updates to node tech that doesn't change the underlying technology and doesn't require a design change (though you might want to anyway to get the most use out of it). Sub nodes are versions of nodes that have been optimized for a particular kind of customer.
With all that backstory, let's roughly rank the nodes by quality, and talk about the known differences between them. I'm not listing every node, just the most interesting for this discussion
10nm class: SEC 8nm
You start to see the confusion of naming immediately. 8nm is the Samsung's most advanced half-node in the 10nm class. This is the least "advanced" node that anyone thinks is viable. Orin is on SEC 8nm, as are the whole line of RTX 30 cards. If you've seen power draw analysis on this forum about Drake, it comes from looking at Nvidia's other 8nm products.
Samsung is highly driven to offer deals, so despite being the largest chips, physically, it's probably the cheapest option. SEC doesnt list prices on their website, so we're guessing on that, but it's a good guess. And I don't mean "lowest price" I mean "best value." As in dollar per TFLOP, this is probably the best deal. If cost were the only driver, this would almost definitely give you the most powerful machine, because Nintendo could pack in the cores all damn day.
7nm class: TSMC N7, SEC 7LPP
TSMC N7 is the node used by the original Xbox/PS5/Steam Deck chips. It's about a 30% improvement in GPU clock speeds at the same amount of electricity as SEC 8nm. SEC's 7LPP process is, as best anyone on the outside can tell, in the same ballpark at N7. However, it was late to the party, and N7 dominated.
As I said before - crossing node classes or crossing foundries requires a chip redesign, and Orin/RTX 30 (Drake's sister chip and GPU parent, respectively) are on SEC 8nm. However Ampere, the architecture behind RTX 30, was originally designed for N7, and the data center products still use it. Nvidia redesigned Ampere for the SEC 8nm node for cost reasons, fairly last minute.
ARM, the CPU in Drake, has designs for multiple nodes, including these. So there is reason to believe that Nvidia might be able to cheaply get a design of Drake on N7. However there is also
7nm class: TSMC N6, SEC 6LPP
These are TSMC and SEC's half node upgrade over their initial 7nm products. They should be design compatible with their predecessor, and MS/Sony/Valve have all moved their consoles to N6. It's only slightly smaller, but it offers as much as a 30% improvement in electrical efficiency.
All three of these companies moved on mostly for cost reasons. TSMC has been retiring the original N7 node, but also the improved electrical efficiency allowed MS and Sony to lightly slim down their hardware, which was a cost savings for them both (lighter machines mean lower shipping costs, smaller heat sinks and fans means cheaper manufacturing cost).
I would call N6 the sleeper possibility, as it it an advanced, long-lived node that is cost effective, and is design compatible with N7, where Nvidia already has versions of Ampere and ARM designs.
5nm class: TSMC 4N, SEC 4LPP
TSMC 4N is a sub-node of TSMC N5. N5 is their first 5nm class node, 4N is a subnode that is exclusively for Nvidia's use. It's where Ada Lovelace is manufactured. It offers something like a 50% leap over N7 in both size and power draw, though it's a little hard to be sure, since Lovelace includes a bunch of its own internal power draw changes. SEC 4LPP is a Samsung 5nm class node that rolled out around the same time that 4N did, and I'm including it here mostly for completeness.
I said above that if price were the only issue, SEC 8nm is probably the best value. But it's not the only issue. We know how big Drake is, so we can estimate it's power draw based on Orin... and the numbers just don't look great! It's hard to believe an SEC 8nm product of that size can go into a handheld and offer anything resembling Switch battery life. But some benchmarks on Lovelace look almost exactly where you want them to be...
There is, of course, the cost of the redesign, but here we see that once again Nvidia has the tech on this process node. Lovelace was originally thought of internally as Ampere 2.0, and they are very similar. And we know from leaks that Drake contains at least some of Lovelace's updates. It seems entirely possible that, just as PS5's GPU was essentially a "halfway point" between RDNA and RDNA2, that Drake's GPU is similar.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
I don't think Mario Kart is a likely launch title, really. The launch day is more for like, the mega fans, and the more casual titles are usually better served launching later, or even better, nearer the holidays. Odyssey, for example.
SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
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- he/him
Pretty much this, but it should be stressed that it doesn't mean we won't get Mario Kart 9/10(?) a month or more after launch. MK8D released in April 2017, a month after launch, so we might see something similar? Idk, but casual games will likely be close to launch, just not as "at launch". I am curious as to if we're getting a casual game at launch after 1-2 Switch's critical failure, but we'll see how it turns out.
rick_C
Piranha Plant
In last year, i thought the launch line up wont have many games, as the first wave is mainly bought by Nintendo fans, they will buy it even with no game (as they
trust that the games will come later).
But when i saw Nintendo going to make a large storage at launch, it seems Nintendo want to take a start dash, that makes me a little bit confused. If Nintendo going to have a start dash, they need to put most of their games when launch, how can they fill their line up in remaining year?
Go back to NS, we only had few games when it launched, then followed up with many games in remaining year. Will Nintendo change this launch pattern?
trust that the games will come later).
But when i saw Nintendo going to make a large storage at launch, it seems Nintendo want to take a start dash, that makes me a little bit confused. If Nintendo going to have a start dash, they need to put most of their games when launch, how can they fill their line up in remaining year?
Go back to NS, we only had few games when it launched, then followed up with many games in remaining year. Will Nintendo change this launch pattern?
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boodream
Paratroopa
Thank you for taking the time to answer, and thank you very much for constantly taking the time to try to explain complicated things by making them accessible, and for constantly showing patience and kindness. I think many of us want to express our appreciation for all of your contribution here.
ziggyrivers
thunder
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- He/him/his
Petition to completely write Mario Kart because I keep thinking about Mortal Kombat whenever I see MK lol
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