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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Not sure where this confirmed dev kit came from, not sure where you got the specs of the dev kit either.
I remember hearing it in his podcast about it when nate released more information in october-november but maybe it's outdated or i miss remembered.
 
To adopt the microSD Express format, a CE manufacturer may need a controller/bridge IC, a card connector (aka socket), and test tools—bus analyzers, protocol analyzers, etc. AFAIK, the controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express should be compatible with microSD Express. Since there are already CE products in the market with an SD Express slot (e.g., MSI, Lenovo, and Asus), we may surmise that the supply and readiness of controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express, and by extension microSD Express, are not an issue.

That leaves the question of microSD Express connector’s availability. My quick search suggests that there are only three connectors advertised for sale currently:

Rego 9177MSD7-F00001
  • Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
  • Rated for PCIe 3; PCIe 4 compatibility unknown
  • Rego revealed the product back in 2022. However, I can’t find any distributors stocking it, therefore it probably hasn’t been mass manufactured.
Amphenol 101019966912A
  • Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
  • Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
  • In stock at several distributors I checked; seems readily available
Amphenol 10102166A812A
  • 3-in-1 connector, supporting UHS-I, UHS-II and Express (image source)
idSGilg.png

  • Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
  • I only found two distributors have this in stock; doesn’t seem widely available
Looking at these, I think that if a CE manufacturer such as DJI/Nintendo/Valve would like to include a microSD Express slot on their products, there isn’t much obstacle. The other side of the chicken-and-egg equation is the card manufacturers. Samsung is now only “sampling” a microSD Express card. Will there be more?

In December 2023, the SD Association stated that Adata, Lexar, Phison, and SanDisk had adopted SD Express, but they did not specify whom among those will support the microSD Express format (image source):

G6XSoKG.png


However, an Amphenol presentation slide indicated that the company was collaborating with SanDisk on the microSD Express connector. It doesn’t necessarily mean that SanDisk will release microSD Express cards, but they were at least planning to support it at one point (image source):

0iin7IO.png

The slides showing the card manufacturers has a link for Lexar, and if you follow it it's their announcement from 2021, which was somewhat famous for the fact that they never actually brought the card to market.

The SanDisk one is a little bit more interesting, though, because it links to the SD Association's verification program, which shows two SanDisk items in the SD Express list, one SD card and one microSD card (and no sign of the mythical Lexar cards). These were listed in December 2022, which is somewhat more recent, and the fact that they went through the verification program shows they actually exist (or existed at some point). There are photos in the PDF (see bottom right on the second page), and although the photo for the full-size SD card seems to be a mock-up, with "SD Express" in a plain font, the microSD card does actually look like it's using the proper branding, although it's very blurry. The full-size card also lists 800MB/s on it, so it's a PCIe 3 x1 card.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the SanDisk cards were anticipating a market that didn't exist, and just got shelved, as they were verified over a year ago and haven't been announced. However, as far as I'm aware WD/SanDisk only ever use in-house flash controllers for their products, and it's relatively unlikely they would have been willing to go to market with a line of SD Express products using the off-the-shelf Phison controller, which is their only other option. So it seems likely that they went as far as designing their own flash controller for SD Express cards, which is a relatively high level of investment.

The choice of expandable storage for Switch 2 likely would have been locked in by late 2022, so if it's using microSD Express, then SanDisk should have known about it by then. That they included a microSD card in the verification rather than just the full-sized SD card is also perhaps a clue that this was done with Nintendo in mind. A bit early, though, having cards ready 2 years before the console.

In any case it does suggest that, even if SanDisk were unaware of Nintendo's plans at the time they made these cards, if Switch 2 does use microSD Express then SanDisk should be able to spin up manufacturing pretty quickly, and we should get some competition between Samsung and SanDisk at launch, if not soon after.

Edit: Wait a sec. The PDF version of the verification list is a little old. The web version includes two additional microSD Express cards added today from ADATA, one 256GB and one 512GB. Hmm...

Second edit: A host controller chip from Realtek was also added today. This is a little bit notable as it seems to be a second-generation chip, with Realtek having verified an older model in 2022.
 
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I remember hearing it in his podcast about it when nate released more information in october-november but maybe it's outdated or i miss remembered.
The podcast stated target spec hardware. There isn't any reason as to why nintendo would show developers and publishers something their system couldn't do. It was a private demo, it would be a bit counter-intuitive. I think you're heavily misremembering
 
The podcast stated target spec hardware. There isn't any reason as to why nintendo would show developers and publishers something their system couldn't do. It was a private demo, it would be a bit counter-intuitive. I think you're heavily misremembering
ahh, yeah i likely misremembered
 
I’m calling this The Hateful Eight.

Eight in this case being:

8nm
8GB Ram
128GB Storage

Because they are all things I feel confident will NOT happen for Switch 2.

What gets me isn’t just that T239 has 12SMs, and that amount would mean an 8nm chip be MASSIVE, bigger than Series S chip mind you, plus the energy consumption, plus the frequencies that would have to be used (not as high as could be), PLUS what others have already mentioned concerning yields for Samsung 8nm.

Given how fucking custom T239 is, Samsung 8nm would seem like a goddamn massive oversight in design. A big “Oops. My Bad!”

Like damn, dude. It’s an issue that compounds itself towards nearly every facet of the system from battery size, cooling capacity, relative size of the handheld itself, heat, battery life, and of course performance across both profiles.

It just feels like the Jackie Chan meme to me.
Makes kinda sense, a lot of stuff in tech has the base of 2/8 :p
 
This question isn't tangentially related to Switch 2 but it's not really about Nintendo, it's about Sony. With how Sony/Playstation's financials are going and the massively ballooning dev costs due to higher fidelity and bigger games, does releasing a PS5 Pro make that exact problem even worse for them? Is it worth it to Sony to release the PS5 Pro if it just means more dev cost investment and it's not gonna do much to grow their ecosystem, just replace current PS5 owners with Pro owners. Do they just cancel their plans for it and retreat to more cost cutting and efficient development?

In relation to Nintendo, is the poor economy, tech inflation, and struggles people are going through a factor in some of their plans to deal with how they price and market this system? Even if the tech is a generational leap, are we expecting their games to reflect that if it means massively ballooning dev costs?
I think big studios are hoping that generative AI will bail them out of the AAA or burst hole they have dug themselves into.
 
That's the first and likely theory. I think they will have multiple if not all regions in gen 10.

I always hear someone pitching an all regions game and I fail to see the point in that just by level curves alone and that's putting it nicely.
We can always have a console-ized/Stadium-ified Masters game if the point is to have multiple regions' leagues going at it.
 
It's officially march (for me anyway), this could still be the reveal (coping)
 
when nate said they were demoed on target spec hardware, what i figured was, whats the chance that they used just a regular ol orin board kit clocked to close to how the t239 would function? thing is none of the orin kits feature a full 12sm gpc, closest one is the orin nx 16gb. basically matches everything from the 16gb rumored dev kits to the bandwidth but its missing a third of the SMs. funny thing is that i bet it matches with a lot of what the rumor sources think is the end product
 
Why are we viewing everything from the NVN2 leak as gospel? It is too early, not final, and things can change.

I now more believe the (12SM cannot be done with 8nm) -> (it must be 4nm) thinking is biased.

If more and more NVDA insiders start saying it is 8nm, isn’t it more likely that the thing (new T239) is 8nm, 6-8SM and 4 A78C?

Sure, if they are coming from reliable NVIDIA insiders. The only one with track record is Kopite and the reasoning he gave is an assumption because it's based on T234 and not from his contacts. Until then, I trust NVIDIA word on a NVIDIA chip over a hundred insiders with a spotty track record.
 
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OMG I know why Nintendo delayed Switch 2 until next year it’s because next year is Mario’s 40th anniversary and what’s better way to launch Switch 2 with a shit load of Mario games
Its also the 40th Anniversary of the North American launch of the NES.

Not sure if NCL will make a big deal, but NoA will.
 
The flip side here being that it would be easier/cheaper to shrink SEC8N to Samsung 5nm? Or am I remembering that SEC8N is a dead end node?
I think both.

TechInsights mentioned that outside of using EUV lithography, the process node used to fabricated the Exynos 9825, which Samsung said is Samsung's 7LPP process node, is no different from Samsung's 8LPP process node used to fabricate the Exynos 9820. And considering Samsung's 5LPE and 5LPP process nodes are part of the same family as Samsung's 7LPP process node, and assuming transitioning from DUV lithography to EUV lithography with Samsung's IPs still being maintained is as relatively straightforward as TechInsights' analysis suggests, then die shrinking from Samsung's 8N process node to presumably Nvidia's hypothetical flavour of Samsung's 5LPP process node should be relatively straightforward, although I don't know if that's necessarily an inexpensive process. (There's not a huge difference between Samsung's 5LPE process node and Samsung's 5LPP process node.)

But Samsung's 8N process node is a dead end in the sense that I think if any company hypothetically wants to use a process node newer than Samsung's 5LPP process node, then there probably has to be a redesign since the IPs associated with Samsung's 4LPE process node family is not compatible with Samsung's 7LPP process node family.
 
OMG I know why Nintendo delayed Switch 2 until next year it’s because next year is Mario’s 40th anniversary and what’s better way to launch Switch 2 with a shit load of Mario games
One of these anniversaries Nintendo will actually celebrate correctly.
  1. 25th not only was a dud but the duddiest dud that ever dudded.
  2. 30th was better but mostly a dud (thanks for Super Mario Maker though).
  3. 35th was even better, enough not to be a dud but still kind of lacking for the world’s most recognizable character. It was mostly missing a brand new Mario platformer. Bowser’s Fury was good, tying it to a port of Super Mario 3D World made it seem like a side-attraction.
While I don’t think a Mario’s 40th anniversary is the reason for a 2025 Switch 2 launch, I hope Nintendo goes all out with Mario using all the whiz-bang stuff T239 can do.
 
New article in Nikkei Asia: Nintendo Switch: What investors are looking for in next-gen console

Several sources in the video game industry told Nikkei that a Switch successor is expected to be launched as early as March 2025, equipped with a bigger display. Many observers believe an announcement about the successor could come by the time Nintendo discloses in April or May earnings for the year ending March 2024.
Many analysts hope for a successor that maintains backward compatibility, with Ono estimating that this feature would enable the new machine to "keep the annual user count at least as high as the Switch's 120 million."
Ray tracing is a graphics rendering technique that simulates how light bounces off objects to create photorealistic effects. DLSS technology could expand the range of software available for Nintendo if incorporated into the Switch successor because it would support AAA titles, says Yasuda.
 
I would just like to remind everyone that we have at least two examples in the past of Nintendo going with really weird hardware manufacturing that hardly made any sense, even to this day.

The Wii was underpowered in a way that even the worst Nintendo hater at the time could never have conceived. A system that wasn't even more powerful than the strongest console of the PREVIOUS generation!

Then we have the Wii U, which seems to have been some kind of Frankenstein's monster the way it was designed.

Obviously I hope Switch 2 isn't made on 8 nm for a variety of reasons, but just saying....there's precedent.
 
The Wii was underpowered in a way that even the worst Nintendo hater at the time could never have conceived. A system that wasn't even more powerful than the strongest console of the PREVIOUS generation!
That's... not true? Like at all? The 5th generation console that had the most raw power was the GameCube, and the Wii does provide some advantages over it, even if it's just an overclock.
 
That's... not true? Like at all? The 5th generation console that had the most raw power was the GameCube, and the Wii does provide some advantages over it, even if it's just an overclock.

...no?

The GC was a great piece of tech at the time, and was definitely superior to PS2. But I'm pretty sure it's widely accepted that the Xbox edged it out, mostly due to a GPU that had both higher clockspeeds and a better feature set, as well as the significantly more plentiful RAM.
 
I do have one question though in regards to the questionability of 8 nm, that I don't think has been brought up (or if it has, I missed it, so apologies)

Wouldn't it just be a practical problem for the foundry to continue having to manufacture on an increasingly old process as time goes on? Don't companies like TSMC, Samsung, etc. want to just keep moving to the newest processes? Working on an older ones probably crowds out the better, newer ones I'd imagine. And if Switch 2 would have the same success as Switch, Samsung or whoever, would be making 8 nm chips all the way to 2032, when even the PS5 and XBSX/S moved to newer processes all the way back in 2020?
 
The SanDisk one is a little bit more interesting, though, because it links to the SD Association's verification program, which shows two SanDisk items in the SD Express list, one SD card and one microSD card (and no sign of the mythical Lexar cards). These were listed in December 2022, which is somewhat more recent, and the fact that they went through the verification program shows they actually exist (or existed at some point). There are photos in the PDF (see bottom right on the second page), and although the photo for the full-size SD card seems to be a mock-up, with "SD Express" in a plain font, the microSD card does actually look like it's using the proper branding, although it's very blurry. The full-size card also lists 800MB/s on it, so it's a PCIe 3 x1 card.
[…]
Edit: Wait a sec. The PDF version of the verification list is a little old. The web version includes two additional microSD Express cards added today from ADATA, one 256GB and one 512GB. Hmm...

Thanks for digging deeper than I was able to. To follow up what you discovered, I found that ADATA exhibited their microSD Express cards (256GB/512GB) at the CES 2024:

P6Vh1f5.png
c1jt0aZ.png


At the CP+ 2024, the SD Association booth displayed three manufacturers’ microSD Express cards—GTS, Phison, and SanDisk. See the lower right corner of the following photo (source):

63a28_1223_67bdceac998e00b9d4edd5c8ba862e82.jpg


GTS is a small Japanese OEM. On their website, two microSD Express cards (256GB/512GB) with their test results are shown:

gts04-1.jpg

gts04-3.jpg


SanDisk also exhibited their SD and microSD Express cards at the CP+ 2024, and even did some speed tests live (source):

007l.jpg

008l.jpg


It seems that the SD Association and some card manufacturers are giving the microSD Express format a renewed push. I suspect that the proliferation of handheld gaming PCs caught their attention. The recent introduction of 3-in-1 UHS-I/UHS-II/Express controller IC and card socket also gives the Express format a fighting chance in the professional camera market.
 
That's... not true? Like at all? The 5th generation console that had the most raw power was the GameCube, and the Wii does provide some advantages over it, even if it's just an overclock.

I remember the perception at the time was that it was still behind Xbox in some ways. I couldn’t tell you exactly why.

I vaguely recall titles like Doom 3, Ninja Gaiden and Riddick (?) were used by the community for quite some time as high bar for console visuals, and not much on Wii seemed to meet that same bar. It was maybe the prevalence of normal or bump maps on Xbox that gave the impression.
 
I would just like to remind everyone that we have at least two examples in the past of Nintendo going with really weird hardware manufacturing that hardly made any sense, even to this day.

The Wii was underpowered in a way that even the worst Nintendo hater at the time could never have conceived. A system that wasn't even more powerful than the strongest console of the PREVIOUS generation!

Actually I've been thinking about this lately. And I think it makes a lot of sense from a pure business perspective.

The main audiences for the Wii were the non-gamers and anyone who don't know or don't like how to play traditional videogames, like senior people. So, do you think these people would care about what this device is capable of in terms of graphics and other specs ? Not at all. So Nintendo aimed to release a really cheap device to be even more desirable for this new audience. Form businesses perspective? they were correct with this decision as how successful it was lol.

For me? I didn't mind at all at that time. I was around 15 years old. I really liked the motion control so I was in the "having fun is more important than cutting edge graphics" mindset lol. And it was cheap for me and my siblings to save money and buy one.

But if you ask me right now as a "grownup gamer" and away from businesses perspective? Oh god. It was so unreasonably underpowered, to the point it bit Nintendo's butt during Wii U era; as they had difficulties transitioning into HD, hence the really bad drought during the launch window:

 
Xbox was more powerful than the Gamecube, and also more powerful than the Wii.
I think Xbox and Wii were similar. But maybe Wii's video out chip was slightly worse than GameCube's. And the Deflicker filter was on by default for all games which made them all look blurry.

Here's a video on it by GVG that I posted before:



Also, I'm not sure if any dev bothered making any Wii game in 720p and were all 480p.
 
Actually I've been thinking about this lately. And I think it makes a lot of sense from a pure business perspective.

The main audiences for the Wii were the non-gamers and anyone who don't know or don't like how to play traditional videogames, like senior people. So, do you think these people would care about what this device is capable of in terms of graphics and other specs ? Not at all. So Nintendo aimed to release a really cheap device to be even more desirable for this new audience. Form businesses perspective? they were correct with this decision as how successful it was lol.

For me? I didn't mind at all at that time. I was around 15 years old. I really liked the motion control so I was in the "having fun is more important than cutting edge graphics" mindset lol. And it was cheap for me and my siblings to save money and buy one.

But if you ask me right now as a "grownup gamer" and away from businesses perspective? Oh god. It was so unreasonably underpowered, to the point it bit Nintendo's butt during Wii U era; as they had difficulties transitioning into HD, hence the really bad drought during the launch window:


See, I totally get the financial argument, especially since the GC was Nintendo's worst selling console up until that point, and they probably felt they didn't have the resources like MS or Sony to spend so much for their next console and have it flop too.

What I DON'T get is that, they decided to basically shrink the GC's innards, into a system 1/4 its size. Wouldn't that cost some money too? Sure, not nearly as much as making a PS3/360, but couldn't they make a system that was about as big as the GC (maybe in a different shape of course), and give us more power for basically the same price they were selling it?
 
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It seems that the SD Association and some card manufacturers are giving the microSD Express format a renewed push. I suspect that the proliferation of handheld gaming PCs caught their attention. The recent introduction of 3-in-1 UHS-I/UHS-II/Express controller IC and card socket also gives the Express format a fighting chance in the professional camera market.
it wouldn't shock me if more than one gaming handheld maker inquired the SD group about making some, and probably some hardware-makers-who-don't-want-to-be-named also asking for products to be made. directstorage and other fast loading methods would really need them
 
The WiiU’s hardware is a total catastrophe that is very hard to explain.
It wasn't. I was disabused of that notion when I found out that it had a modern graphics processor. I think if they had chucked the tablet and had a better operating system (chucked out a bunch of the stuff that made it slow) and named it Wii HD or Wii 2 or something similar, they could have been better. The other problem was that it was late for the power level it brought. If it had been 2009 or so it would have been an appropriate followup. I think there are ways they could have made it work well, even if it did involve HD exclusives 3 years into the Wii's lifetime.
 
It wasn't. I was disabused of that notion when I found out that it had a modern graphics processor. I think if they had chucked the tablet and had a better operating system (chucked out a bunch of the stuff that made it slow) and named it Wii HD or Wii 2 or something similar, they could have been better. The other problem was that it was late for the power level it brought. If it had been 2009 or so it would have been an appropriate followup. I think there are ways they could have made it work well, even if it did involve HD exclusives 3 years into the Wii's lifetime.
And if they hadn’t said „the new controller“ in the trailers all the time…
 
And if they hadn’t said „the new controller“ in the trailers all the time…
Right. There were so many problems, but the hardware at it's core wasn't it's biggest problem. Although, I wonder if they would have been better off if they had designed the core cpu/gpu from a new design entirely, then strapped on a hollywood/broadway the same way that the PS3 did with the PS2's core hardware.
 
It wasn't. I was disabused of that notion when I found out that it had a modern graphics processor. I think if they had chucked the tablet and had a better operating system (chucked out a bunch of the stuff that made it slow) and named it Wii HD or Wii 2 or something similar, they could have been better. The other problem was that it was late for the power level it brought. If it had been 2009 or so it would have been an appropriate followup. I think there are ways they could have made it work well, even if it did involve HD exclusives 3 years into the Wii's lifetime.

The price/teraflops ratio was just terrible to make the system energy efficient and that didn’t make any sense at all.

It’s not clear why Nintendo thought they would ever get third party support with an instantly outdated system.
 
The price/teraflops ratio was just terrible to make the system energy efficient and that didn’t make any sense at all.

It’s not clear why Nintendo thought they would ever get third party support with an instantly outdated system.
The inclusion of the Wii-U controller pushed the price up and they committed to that. While it looked like a bad investment in retrospect, the Wii U did began development before the release of the iPad. By the time the Wii U was released, the popularity of the iPad and other tablets were already on the rise and that definitely affected the impact of Nintendo’s idea.
 
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I remember the perception at the time was that it was still behind Xbox in some ways. I couldn’t tell you exactly why.

I vaguely recall titles like Doom 3, Ninja Gaiden and Riddick (?) were used by the community for quite some time as high bar for console visuals, and not much on Wii seemed to meet that same bar. It was maybe the prevalence of normal or bump maps on Xbox that gave the impression.

Normal maps, bump maps, in the case of Riddick and Splinter Cell, really good lighting, possibly some AA abilities (I think?) and the ability to do 720p.
 
I always hear someone pitching an all regions game and I fail to see the point in that just by level curves alone and that's putting it nicely.
We can always have a console-ized/Stadium-ified Masters game if the point is to have multiple regions' leagues going at it.
Well, the only reason I pitch it is because we are reaching 10 generations of Pokémon. We got the tech capable of holding such regions and with the nature of 3D modeling, You can reuse your assets.
Obviously I hope Switch 2 isn't made on 8 nm for a variety of reasons, but just saying....there's precedent.
I just happened to watch the MLID video and he expected it to be, at worst, a little better than the Steam Deck and ,at best, just below the Series S. So yeah he sees 8nm but..... he still has the same range performance as many people here suspects.

It’s not clear why Nintendo thought they would ever get third party support with an instantly outdated system.
It is very clear, they thought the same thing will happen twice. It just didn't.
If more and more NVDA insiders start saying it is 8nm, isn’t it more likely that the thing (new T239) is 8nm, 6-8SM and 4 A78C?
What are they going to do with 4 cores? You might as well say this is a switch pro.

You're going to give devs 3 core to work with in 2025? I mean yeah it is way more advance the the A57 but come on now!
 
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If more and more NVDA insiders start saying it is 8nm, isn’t it more likely that the thing (new T239) is 8nm, 6-8SM and 4 A78C?

As Dakhil said, A78C only comes in 6 or 8 core flavors.

So much for “nvidia insiders” lol
 
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The Wii made sense though I think if it had been 75% as powerful as the 360 and cost $400, it would have been a lot more successful imo.

The WiiU’s hardware is a total catastrophe that is very hard to explain.
it's... hard to say. Nintendo sold a ton of consoles. The best selling Nintendo home console by far since it came out. Only the switch dethroned it. For all we know, Wii with 75% power could have been another GameCube (last in sales), especially if it didn't have the Wiimote. $400 price would not have helped it.
 
Well, the only reason I pitch it is because we are reaching 10 generations of Pokémon. We got the tech capable of holding such regions and with the nature of 3D modeling, You can reuse your assets.

Just because they CAN reuse assets doesn't necessarily mean that's a visual choice they should undertake.
Not to mention that just sounds like torture for the development and testing cycle. That and Pokémon games have been real narrative heavy since Diamond and Pearl with 3D only accentuating character acting. Games like Sword/Shield and Scarlet/Violet left such an effect on the player experience that I doubt they would just give past areas a treatment in the mindset of "these are just maps"

Heck, that's not even addressing the elephant in the room that not all regions are created equal, even 3D games AS EARLY AS THE DS INSTALLMENTS do not have the same map design as the Switch games and 3DS games couldn't have a mere asset flip, those maps would have to be updated.

That and given the gameplay loop of previous Pokémon games, I just don't see what the extra padding truly adds since the games try to build their own identity and don't want something so complete one will never buy another Pokemon game again.

It just seems like diminishing returns as a design, development and gameplay choice.
 
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