This is the conclusion that I got from MLID's video.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
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This question isn't tangentially related to Switch 2 but it's not really about Nintendo, it's about Sony. With how Sony/Playstation's financials are going and the massively ballooning dev costs due to higher fidelity and bigger games, does releasing a PS5 Pro make that exact problem even worse for them? Is it worth it to Sony to release the PS5 Pro if it just means more dev cost investment and it's not gonna do much to grow their ecosystem, just replace current PS5 owners with Pro owners. Do they just cancel their plans for it and retreat to more cost cutting and efficient development?
In relation to Nintendo, is the poor economy, tech inflation, and struggles people are going through a factor in some of their plans to deal with how they price and market this system? Even if the tech is a generational leap, are we expecting their games to reflect that if it means massively ballooning dev costs?
In relation to Nintendo, is the poor economy, tech inflation, and struggles people are going through a factor in some of their plans to deal with how they price and market this system? Even if the tech is a generational leap, are we expecting their games to reflect that if it means massively ballooning dev costs?
oldpuck
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Which is why Nvidia has to prop them up, instead of letting the two compete on quality. If TSMC and Samsung were both in healthy places, Nvidia wouldn't be eyeballing the market nervously.
But it isn't less profitable. That's my point. If Samsung makes the contract based on functional dies instead of wafers, from Nvidia's point of view, the yields are irrelevant, because Samsung is eating the cost. From Samsung's point of view, the node is running under capacity. They're already eating the cost, keeping the fab online. The cost of the physical wafer is a drop in the bucket.
In the case of RTX 30, Nvidia was willing to put out a less power efficient product, if Samsung would make the cost worth it, because TSMC was being extortionist. The 30 series outperformed AMD's offering anyway, Samsung lived another generation, and Nvidia made a lot of profit. The Extremely Online Gamer Class whinged about Nvidia not giving them
Which is exactly what I meant when I said "I don't think 8nm is viable." At some point Nvidia and Nintendo sat down and hashed out requirements - on performance, on features, on power draw, size, cost, everything. Nvidia almost definitely offered a menu of options to Nintendo. That menu wasn't a set of nodes, but high level chip designs, with estimates for all of these parameters. An 8nm based chip was almost definitely one of the options - it would be insane if it wasn't.
I tend to believe that a chip Drake's size would never meet Nintendo's likely battery life goals on 8nm. That's me assuming a lot, not just about the their battery life goals, but the ultimate size and shape of the final hardware. That's also me assuming that there aren't major power savings that Nvidia could provide when customizing for Nintendo's use case.
If Nvidia figures out how to offer 5nm class power/performance on an 8nm node, by highly customizing to Nintendo's use case... fuck yes. That would only be worth doing if Samsung offers significant cost savings. I'm here for a cheaper Switch 2 that doesn't take the sorts of crazy financial risks that result in Sony and MS laying off a 20% of their workforce. I'm absolutely into even more amazing custom engineering even if some people think it's less sexy than "we just bought the better node."
I'm betting against that, honestly. Because I don't see where those savings could come from, and why they wouldn't have appeared in other Nvidia products. But if it happens, then, I'm more fascinated from a technical perspective than I was before.
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Thing is, unless the people calculating around here are just totally wrong, it's not that 8nm is bad for a given year, but that it's bad in general for what we know about T239. That an 8nm chip made with fewer parts would be cheaper and more efficient at reaching similar performance goals.
Not arguing for 8GB, but am arguing against that particular argument. The amount of RAM increase per generation has changed so much compared to what it used to be that I don't think this comparison means much anymore. We could also equally truthfully say that since they took a swerve on hardware design with Wii, the most RAM they've ever had compared to the relevant competition was 50%, but usually 25% or less. We're now at a breaking point where both patterns can't continue.
I don't think it will change much in development. They'll mostly do the kinds of things people are hoping we see with Switch 2 backwards compatibility--tweaks to a few settings to allow things to run at even better resolutions and frame rates. Won't grow the ecosystem much, but keep the top 10% happy.
Yea. Imo, no matter what, no one has 100% credibility. They're all just riding the same wave. But it's all "fun" and speculation at the end of the day. Something to keep us busy until Nintendo officially announces the system, or until we get it in our hands and open it up.
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He's repeatedly made big claims, had them turn out to be false, then deleted them. I wouldn't trust a lick of what he says, especially on Nvidia tech since he's a notorious AMD fanboy.
oldpuck
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Sony is already building their games to take advantage of meatier hardware in order to sell them on PC, so that cost is sunk. PS6 will come out eventually, and gamers will want their "enhanced on next gen games" and a PS5 Pro is way to build those "enhanced on PS6" games while making money on them now.
Right now, Sony can't sell hardware to the people who are most willing to buy - Playstation fans. PS5 owners who bought during the first year, who were willing to pay premium prices to scalpers, who are the most rabid to buy, well, they already own a PS5! They're out of the market. And Sony lost money selling to them that first year, because PS5 cost more to make than to sell.
PS5 Pro, if priced profitably, let's Sony go back to that market and double tap them, this time profitably. Sony would absolutely hate a wave of used games hitting the market place, but used hardware isn't a problem. Sony's big profit is in game sales. If PS5 Pro buyers put their console but not their games on the used market, those used units get into the hands of buyers who can't or won't buy one at the current price. And those people will have to buy games. A net second infusion of cash.
I don't know if this plan will work for them, but that's the basic idea.
No, but also yes? Nintendo will want to price this console where it will sell well, and where they can keep the price long term and make money. Short term shifts are unlikely to make them move their price targets. Long term issues in the market are going to be factored in, because it will affect the prices they can get parts for.
I don't know why Nintendo would pay for a generational leap in tech then not take advantage of it. If Nintendo thought their development costs would "massively balloon" then they'd balance the tech out.
I expect the biggest leap to visuals since the GameCube. Not bigger than the GameCube, but since. People might not notice though! The number of people who played Prime when it came out who thought that Prime Remastered was a simple HD uprez. It was everywhere! Nintendo's art design is so good, that unless you're actively playing the old games then switching to the new ones, you don't always notice the technical leaps.
I think more people might notice this time, if Nintendo simply brings anti-aliasing back
1. His sources didn't explicitly say it's 8nm.
Source 1 said 8 nm is the cheapest per transistor.
Source 2 said: yea the leaked specs were close to final.
2. He did report retracted devkits long before Nate did.
ExoticSpice
Shriekbat
I think it will be bigger than GameCube. There is so much Nintendo could do with the T239 providing the it’s has 12GB RAM and the leaked specs are correct. Hardware Ray and mesh shaders will prolong the life of Switch 2.
ExoticSpice
Shriekbat
Even Pyoro can be wrong.
Starbreaker
Seven ways to win
I'm expecting a Wii to Wii U kind of jump this time, a true generation forward. Perhaps I'm just ignorant but I personally don't see too much of a difference at all really if you compare PS4/XBone to PS5/XBSX. To me it's more like someone hit "higher detail" on a graphics slider but definitely doesn't seem like the leap from say N64 to GameCube or PS2 to PS3. Today's games have the same gameplay, mechanics, controls, depth ect. they've had for 10 years. I digress, Switch 2 games will look phenomenal with the art style choices mark my words.
Steve
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I'm mostly curious of the software line up because if it's similar to 2017 with two killer apps then it's an easy slam dunk. Mostly because the new president seems to know the value of a consistent line up.
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There's more than one way to skin a cat. Taking advantage of more available tech doesn't necessarily mean pulling a Rockstar and hiring 1000 artists to work on accurately modeling horse scrotums. For something like TOTK, beyond obvious things like resolution and frame rate, allowing more characters on screen simultaneously, or changing the Ultrahand combination limit from ~20 to ~40 can go a long way to changing the experience without greatly changing the amount of creation necessary. I guess put shorter: allowing the tech to ease restrictions is cheaper than chasing new restrictions.
Erika
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Why are we viewing everything from the NVN2 leak as gospel? It is too early, not final, and things can change.
I now more believe the (12SM cannot be done with 8nm) -> (it must be 4nm) thinking is biased.
If more and more NVDA insiders start saying it is 8nm, isn’t it more likely that the thing (new T239) is 8nm, 6-8SM and 4 A78C?
I now more believe the (12SM cannot be done with 8nm) -> (it must be 4nm) thinking is biased.
If more and more NVDA insiders start saying it is 8nm, isn’t it more likely that the thing (new T239) is 8nm, 6-8SM and 4 A78C?
darthdiablo
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Who are those insiders exactly and what are their track records? If you're referring to Kopite, he was wrong couple of times already re: T239.
Starbreaker
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That got me thinking about the rumored delay. They HAVE to get the software right out of the gate and if there was even a sliver of doubt they would have pushed back the launch so everything lines up. We know that 3D Mario is due, throw in a stellar lineup of big games from 3rd parties (Resident Evil 2/3/4/7/8, Cod, GTA5, Monster Hunter, Eldin ring, final fantasy) then the probability of Metroid Prime 4 potentially Animal Crossing and Mario Kart 9 and you've got a recipe for success.
HankyPanky
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the thing is 12SM/8-core also fits with everything else we know about the performance capabilities - namely DLSS & RT cores. these wouldn't be as viable with a cut down SOC. not to mention the Linux commits based on physical hardware, these are definitely the specs.
Erika
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I think the most recent one is Moore's Law Is Dead
Steve
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Mario kart 9 for a holiday release would be so lit would generate the same hype just like smash ultimate. I'm also curious seeing third party exclusive as well like the switch had some banger third party exclusives, like astral chain, monster hunter (for a year i think) something from ubisoft and also wondering which studio will make some nintendo ip games,
Because there was a rumour of nintendo talking to 3 developer about them making games with nintendo's ip
Erika
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Isn’t this also from the NVN2 leak? If so they cannot corroborate each other.
Nate and other sources also said during gamescom 2023 it showed ~PS4 level performance.
If it is 12SM plus DLSS, shouldn’t it be much better than PS4 level? (i.e. XSS level)
darthdiablo
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Unfortunately MLID also have an unreliable track record.
HankyPanky
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no the Linux commits were found later and is public data.
Erika
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I know the Linux commits and the 12SM thing in the code.
However isn’t it still a 2022 thing?
Still early and not final for a 2025 launch.
The whole "didn't think they wait so long" idea makes no sense because these products are meant to last over 5 years. They're not replaced as often as computer gpus, so they would want to be on the cheapest and longest lasting node that still hits the customer's targets. Especially when Nvidia is the one paying for the chip production
HankyPanky
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by all accounts the SOC was taped out (finalized) around this time. there's quite a bit of stuff to support this (the commits, various linkedin things) and the guys source in the video supposedly confirms it too.
darthdiablo
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Do you really think it takes less than 2 years to plan a console?
Shoulder
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I’m calling this The Hateful Eight.
Eight in this case being:
8nm
8GB Ram
128GB Storage
Because they are all things I feel confident will NOT happen for Switch 2.
What gets me isn’t just that T239 has 12SMs, and that amount would mean an 8nm chip be MASSIVE, bigger than Series S chip mind you, plus the energy consumption, plus the frequencies that would have to be used (not as high as could be), PLUS what others have already mentioned concerning yields for Samsung 8nm.
Given how fucking custom T239 is, Samsung 8nm would seem like a goddamn massive oversight in design. A big “Oops. My Bad!”
Like damn, dude. It’s an issue that compounds itself towards nearly every facet of the system from battery size, cooling capacity, relative size of the handheld itself, heat, battery life, and of course performance across both profiles.
It just feels like the Jackie Chan meme to me.
Eight in this case being:
8nm
8GB Ram
128GB Storage
Because they are all things I feel confident will NOT happen for Switch 2.
What gets me isn’t just that T239 has 12SMs, and that amount would mean an 8nm chip be MASSIVE, bigger than Series S chip mind you, plus the energy consumption, plus the frequencies that would have to be used (not as high as could be), PLUS what others have already mentioned concerning yields for Samsung 8nm.
Given how fucking custom T239 is, Samsung 8nm would seem like a goddamn massive oversight in design. A big “Oops. My Bad!”
Like damn, dude. It’s an issue that compounds itself towards nearly every facet of the system from battery size, cooling capacity, relative size of the handheld itself, heat, battery life, and of course performance across both profiles.
It just feels like the Jackie Chan meme to me.
SwitchEmUp
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Moore's Law is Dead is very iffy. He's 50/50. Sometimes he will get the specs like 90% +-5% right but will overexaggerate the performance of a rumoured device (like RDNA 3 and Lovelace), other times he will be completely wrong when it comes to company plans in particular. An example of this is when he said that he heard that Intel were not releasing any Arc desktop cards. As time showed, this was not true.
SwitchEmUp
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FSR 3 should help with the 3rd party games that do make it to Switch 2 atleast. Maybe people will have to choose between a Quality mode (DLSS + RT at 30fps) or a performance mode (FSR 3 + FSR FG at 60fps (from a 35-50fps base)
HankyPanky
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what do we think about the other perhaps more interesting claim in the video? one of the 'sources' says Nintendo was pitched something that wasn't what ended up as T239 and based on pure Lovelace. I know the consensus is what Nintendo got is basically the best available at this time and Lovelace isn't fundamentally that different but still...
HankyPanky
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Starbreaker
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I would love to see another dev tackle Eternal Darkness in addition to a collaboration with FROM and give Hideki Kamiya a team to whip something up, make him the equivalent of Kojima for Nintendo lol.
Steve
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Eternal darkness would be peak. Personally would like to see a new resident evil revelation game from capcom.
Also do we know if retro studio are only developing Metroid prime 4, because i would love to see a new Dk country game.
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Given that recent job listings at Retro are for concept artists, they're likely wrapping up Prime 4 development and moving onto whatever their next project is.
To adopt the microSD Express format, a CE manufacturer may need a controller/bridge IC, a card connector (aka socket), and test tools—bus analyzers, protocol analyzers, etc. AFAIK, the controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express should be compatible with microSD Express. Since there are already CE products in the market with an SD Express slot (e.g., MSI, Lenovo, and Asus), we may surmise that the supply and readiness of controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express, and by extension microSD Express, are not an issue.
That leaves the question of microSD Express connector’s availability. My quick search suggests that there are only three connectors advertised for sale currently:
Rego 9177MSD7-F00001
In December 2023, the SD Association stated that Adata, Lexar, Phison, and SanDisk had adopted SD Express, but they did not specify whom among those will support the microSD Express format (image source):
However, an Amphenol presentation slide indicated that the company was collaborating with SanDisk on the microSD Express connector. It doesn’t necessarily mean that SanDisk will release microSD Express cards, but they were at least planning to support it at one point (image source):
That leaves the question of microSD Express connector’s availability. My quick search suggests that there are only three connectors advertised for sale currently:
Rego 9177MSD7-F00001
- Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
- Rated for PCIe 3; PCIe 4 compatibility unknown
- Rego revealed the product back in 2022. However, I can’t find any distributors stocking it, therefore it probably hasn’t been mass manufactured.
- Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
- Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
- In stock at several distributors I checked; seems readily available
- 3-in-1 connector, supporting UHS-I, UHS-II and Express (image source)
- Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
- I only found two distributors have this in stock; doesn’t seem widely available
In December 2023, the SD Association stated that Adata, Lexar, Phison, and SanDisk had adopted SD Express, but they did not specify whom among those will support the microSD Express format (image source):
However, an Amphenol presentation slide indicated that the company was collaborating with SanDisk on the microSD Express connector. It doesn’t necessarily mean that SanDisk will release microSD Express cards, but they were at least planning to support it at one point (image source):
the question is, what would it have offered? we know it has RT cores with more features, but would a lot of that even be useful when you're limited on power? same with the OFA, Nvidia (and AMD) recommends 60fps minimum before frame generation kicks in, so that's already out of the quest for Nintendo. and doubling to 60 usually happens when you're cpu limited anyway, which I question how often that would happen in a console
Erika
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No I believe the Switch 2 design started around 2020.
pelusilla6
Bob-omb
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Starbreaker
Seven ways to win
Someone might have to correct me if I'm wrong but what was being cooked up as Resident Evil Revelations 3 ended up becoming Resident Evil VIII. As far as Retro I'm not sure if they have the bandwidth for multiple projects at the moment but Nintendo is supposedly working on DK themselves if rumors are true.
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
The bigger problem is that since he posted this video, dozens of articles and stories have popped up with him as the source.
I call BS because in a scenario like that, why wouldn't Nintendo choose Lovelace...
In MLID's situation, Nintendo were presented with both options but chose to stick with Ampere and back-port Lovelace features on a worse node.
I agree, in this situation for Nintendo both Ampere and Lovelace are so close in features that it's a toss up and either architecture is a massive leap for Nintendo. But for this Switch 2 device, it doesn't need to promise anything over 60fps to be a major hit.
darthdiablo
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But if one of the main reasons you think it would be 6-8SM is a comment from Moore's Law Is Dead Source 1 saying 8nm is cheap... why place that over Moore's Law Is Dead Source 2 stating the hacked T239 info is "almost entirely correct"?
I could see Samsung wanting to get moving forward with micro SD Express as a general replacement for micro SD. Assuming Switch 2 is their assured customer, then why not start talking about it now so that other memory card using devices could announce themselves as premium for supporting the standard now that they can guarantee availability of parts. It feels like a bit of a situation where a big first mover needed to get there as a killer app.
oldpuck
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The leak is from after the design was finished.
I was able to find public Linux commits that suggested that some team had physical chips work on. A few months ago customs records showed the chip shipments to that team matching the timeline of the Linux commits.
Every Linux commit since the leak matches the leaked chip. The timing implied by the Linux commits matches the shipping schedule. The shipping schedule is consistent with the development of the OLED model, which obviously didn’t have a chip redesign.
There is no evidence that the chip design has changed, and craploads of evidence that it hasn’t.
Zero Nvidia insiders have said this. Several people that do not have Nvidia track records have said this, but they’ve said things like “based on T239” which doesn’t make sense. T239 isn’t a design that Nintendo made for someone else that Nintendo gets something “based on”.
When Nvidia reworks a chip they change the chip ID. When Nvidia changed the design of Atlan, their next-gen drive chip, they didn’t keep the name. They changed the name and the internal chip ID.
We know that T239 hasn’t been cancelled or redesigned because the chip ID still shows up in public records.
They did not. There was reports on the specific demos and how they performed, not a generic description of performance.
There were two demos mentioned from Gamescom.
One was Breath of the Wild at 4k60 with “no loading times.” This would be pushing to that rough limit of what 12 SMs and DLSS could do. The no loading times likely would require the custom decompression hardware which was also in the Linux commits. So it not only matches the specs it matches some more obscure details.
The second demo was The Matrix Awakens which is obviously beyond the PS4’s capabilities.
Every single reliable leak matches the leaked chip.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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nate said ps5 comparable visuals lol
Steve
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wasn't it the ray tracing that was running better and not the visuals. and also wasn't it running on a dev kit with similar specs so that's why it ran comparable. I'm personally expecting 50 percent better then the series s because of dlss.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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Not sure where this confirmed dev kit came from, not sure where you got the specs of the dev kit either.
Gerald
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He was general wrong about Tegra, he said Thor is Blackwell when is Ada
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