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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST8| Press Your (Nintendo Direct) Luck!

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theguy said:
what is, how many paper puns can you throw into a 5 minute trailer, for 500
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12. Also this guys voice sounds like a replacement actor for Jack Black. Tell me you couldn’t imagine some crummy Kung Fu Panda show having this guy as the voice actor for Po
 
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Bullwine85 said:
fire-emblem.jpg
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RDT_20240425_1050418925553105089457334.jpg


An update.
 
At this point with Golden week going on Monday through the following Sunday I think the only hope we have of a Direct before mid-late May is if they sneak one in on May 7th like 12 hours before the financial briefing or something, but that feels like a big stretch.

I think I'm actually starting to believe in no direct until June and we'll just have to see what happens with the July game. Either a shadowdrop, a smaller game they don't mind a 1.5-month release window for, or maybe they announce it early or something. But I do think there will be one - Nintendo has had a July game (almost always late July) every single year of the Switch, even 2020.
 
I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I really feel like whenever this next direct comes, it will come with news of the Echoes and Corruption ports Jeff Grubb mentioned. Hoping they'll be remasters like Prime instead of just HD, though.

Prime 4 stuff would be nice too.
 
ColdGoldLazarus said:
I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I really feel like whenever this next direct comes, it will come with news of the Echoes and Corruption ports Jeff Grubb mentioned. Hoping they'll be remasters like Prime instead of just HD, though.

Prime 4 stuff would be nice too.
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Sadly I feel like we won't be getting Metroid Prime 2 and 3 at all in any form. I feel like the very well done Metroid Prime Remastered Edition did very poor in sales (barely surpassed 1 million last time I heard). I honestly wonder if they even made their money back on that one. :(
 
Kevin said:
Sadly I feel like we won't be getting Metroid Prime 2 and 3 at all in any form. I feel like the very well done Metroid Prime Remastered Edition did very poor in sales (barely surpassed 1 million last time I heard). I honestly wonder if they even made their money back on that one. :(
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Probably one positive thing to consider is that Retro might see it as a success and remaster the other games.

Like 1 Million for a Metroid game is in my books pretty good, especially a remaster.
Also most Metroid games are 1 million+ sellers. Also the reason Nintendo make these type of games is do please their core Nintendo fanbase
 
Kevin said:
Sadly I feel like we won't be getting Metroid Prime 2 and 3 at all in any form. I feel like the very well done Metroid Prime Remastered Edition did very poor in sales (barely surpassed 1 million last time I heard). I honestly wonder if they even made their money back on that one. :(
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Yeah, that's a fair point. Though given the initial lack of copies, that Nintendo had to rush to make more of, I kinda wonder if even the sales figures it got was more than they were actually expecting, so I wouldn't write off the other two entirely.
 
Gamer_G said:
Overview trailers usually drop 3 weeks from launch,
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Not really. There have been cases where they were uploaded like just a day or two before release, like Luigi's Mansion 3 and a few more. Also just a week before, or 5 days before.. they seem pretty random.
 
I’m not in Direct hype mode anymore. I’m fully on the TTYD hype train
 
ziggyrivers said:
Is there any way the Prime 2 & 3 Remasters can have the same treatment as Prime 1, but have a faster development time?
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If the outsourcing rumour (old rumour can't remember the source) is true, then possibly the same treatment, maybe faster depending on what assets can be reused
 
ziggyrivers said:
Is there any way the Prime 2 & 3 Remasters can have the same treatment as Prime 1, but have a faster development time?
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I mean, probably a little faster if Retro did them as well and just reused the same engine exactly? But it would probably still take a decent bit of time as there's little asset overlap between the three games.

If Retro is not doing it, I feel it would take a good bit of time as the devs would need to learn Retro's internal engine.
 
Kevin said:
Sadly I feel like we won't be getting Metroid Prime 2 and 3 at all in any form. I feel like the very well done Metroid Prime Remastered Edition did very poor in sales (barely surpassed 1 million last time I heard). I honestly wonder if they even made their money back on that one. :(
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I wouldn't call 1 million+ sales "very poor".
 
2024: Metroid Prime 4
2025: Metroid 6
2026: Metroid Prime 2+3 Remastered
2027: Metroid Samus Returns Remastered
2028: Nintendo will release a video where an exec goes "We gave you a Metroid game every year for the past five years. We've given you more Samus than you ever deserved. Learn some goddamn patience."
2029: Metroid 7
2030: Metroid Prime 5

If we believe hard enough, we can manifest this timeline, fami.

Joe said:
I wouldn't call 1 million+ sales "very poor".
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I don't think it is either. 1 million sales in the first month for a game that was shadowdropped, in a series that has historically hovered around 2 million sales feels solid. No doubt that Nintendo wants to grow the series past that to be at least a solid 3-4 million seller or something. Dread wouldn't have gotten a four month marketing campaign breaking down series' lore, gameplay, etc. it did if they didn't. But I also don't think they'd see 1 million for MPR as a failure; if they did, they wouldn't repeat the same marketing tactic with Pikmin 1+2 a few months later.
 
One time I was at Gamestop and there was a little girl asking her dad if they would get Paper Mario: The Origami King. The dad said no and said that she would be playing real Paper Mario games like The Thousand Year Door.

He actually told her that it's not like the other Mario games and that she's a little too young to enjoy it.
 
We really need to move passed the idea that Metroid Prime Remastered was some sort of commercial disaster.

MPR sold 1.36 million in the first 4 months on sale, which already makes it the best performing Metroid re-release; ahead of Trilogy, Samus Returns, Zero Mission and the NES Classic (GBA) release of the original Metroid.

In terms of new mainline games, MPR's 1.36 million total (as of June 2023, per Installbase) compares favourably to the LTD totals for much of the mainline series and it essentially guarantees that MPR will outperform Prime 2 (1.1m), Other M (1.3m), Prime 3 (1.4), and Super (1.4m); it has a shot at outperforming Fusion (1.6m) and Metroid 2 (1.7m). Odds are it'll only remain behind Metroid, Prime and Dread, and presumably Prime 4. In terms of sales comparisons across franchises, MPR might best be compared to Link's Awakening 2019, which sold far below Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom, but which still outperformed the majority of the previous Zelda releases and now stands as the fifth best-selling Zelda title in the all-time rankings (behind BotW, TotK, Twilight Princess and Ocarina of Time).

Much as there's still a fairly stable audience for classic Zelda, there's a fairly stable audience for Metroid, and much like Link's Awakening, MPR has a good shot at outperforming all but the highest selling Metroid titles. And I'd argue, despite Dread's success, Metroid is yet to have its BotW breakout simply because Dread, while excellent, was very much in the same mould as the rest of the series. Unlike BotW, Dread was neither conceived nor interpreted as a radical break with Metroid's previous gameplay structure and style. Perhaps one thing we could learn from Zelda is that franchise breakout doesn't necessarily equate into massively heightened demand for the classic gameplay style, though games in that classic style still perform well and towards the upper end of the historic sales range. Even if the classic style isn't selling stratospheric levels, it has still benefitted at least a little from Switch's success.

I'm sure Nintendo will want more from Prime 4 than MPR, but I doubt they expect explosive growth from every title on Switch (please see their pre-release AC: New Horizons sales guidance for a prime example of how conservative Nintendo still are on sales expectations). Prime 4 is also an unknown in gameplay terms, so we've no idea if there's been an attempt to radically overhaul the series nor if this will resonate with a much broader audience ala open-world Zelda. MPR is an example where some Fami members' sales expectations become divorced from reality.

While I am providing you all with this data, I will not be engaging further with the topic because I am bored of it and it is time for bed. I will not be returning to the topic on the morrow.

Please understand. bows
 
Joe said:
I wouldn't call 1 million+ sales "very poor".
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It's not great considering how expensive and the rumored 3 years it took to develop. Would be surprised if Nintendo even broke even on this game. I will be kind of shocked if Metroid Prime 2 and 3 show up at all on Switch.
 
The issue with comparing Prime Remastered to any prior Metroid re-release is that Prime Remastered was a 2-3 year effort from a studio located in an expensive US city with six support studios helping out.

(And it was a budget release)

It is helped by having like 95-99% of its sales be digital. That and being first party means Nintendo kept pretty much all of the $40.
 
Kevin said:
It's not great considering how expensive and the rumored 3 years it took to develop. Would be surprised if Nintendo even broke even on this game. I will be kind of shocked if Metroid Prime 2 and 3 show up at all on Switch.
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Nintendo shadow dropped the game at a discounted price, they didn't have super high expectations for it. And they said at their investor meeting that the game sold well, and it was one of the best reviewed games of the year- i'm pretty sure they're happy how it turned out. Especially because most of the sales were digital copies.

I don't think the budget on an HD release of a gamecube game was that high, and HD releases of MP2+3 won't be high either. Ninty prob saw it as "training" for the Metroid Prime 4 development team too. They're releasing games like Another Code remakes and Blue Ocean 3, they know not every game is gonna sell 5+ million copies or whatever
 
The lower you assume Prime Remastered’s budget was, the higher you have to assume Prime 4’s budget was.

Those 150 people plus tons of support studios were not free for these six plus years.
 
franzen23 said:
And they said at their investor meeting that the game sold well
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This is the big indicator that I think a lot of people overlook when it comes to a game's sales: how Nintendo feels about it. Nintendo also said they were impressed with the sales of Metroid: Samus Returns, yet people to this day will call it a massive flop. The truth is that sales numbers are very relative and if Nintendo says they are pleased with the way a game sold, then that should be the primary focal point.
 
The only thing that will stop me from purchasing Metroid Prime 4 is death. And even then, I’d still do everything in my power to claw my way back to land of the living.

So, there is at least 1 guaranteed sale.
 
Metroid is in the same sales tier as Fire Emblem and Xenoblade. And both of those series have seen consistent releases over the past several years. Once I realized that, I was no longer concerned about the future of Metroid.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Is there any way the Prime 2 & 3 Remasters can have the same treatment as Prime 1, but have a faster development time?
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The art in 2 and especially 3 is way more complex and detailed. But at least in 2 it has the dark world which reuses a lot of assets. Plus they have all their tech in order now so that would speed things up. So I think 2 could be done a bit quicker. 3 would also require a heavy amount of design rework to get everything to work work without motion controls.
 
Joe said:
This is the big indicator that I think a lot of people overlook when it comes to a game's sales: how Nintendo feels about it. Nintendo also said they were impressed with the sales of Metroid: Samus Returns, yet people to this day will call it a massive flop. The truth is that sales numbers are very relative and if Nintendo says they are pleased with the way a game sold, then that should be the primary focal point.
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Some western publisher could take a lesson or two with this.
 
Fact of the matter is that not every game has to break 3, 2, or even a million. WarioWare Get It Together is at 1.34 million and they were clearly pleased with it to the point where they made another right after, launching it during the same time period and at the same price point. People will say a game like ARMS was a disappointment but it's always been clear to me Nintendo never saw as much potential in it as they did Splatoon, with no amiibo line to coincide with release, weak post-launch support, and less marketing than even the original Splatoon on Wii U.

I would imagine they probably have loftier, more unreleastic expectations for their biggest sellers, than any of their more lowkey releases.
 
Now that we've (almost) got confirmation that Super Switch will be released in 2025, I'm very curious about Nintendo's schedule for the second half of the year.

I firmly believe that Metroid Prime 4 will be the big game at the end of the year :)
 
I would feel way less bummed about this year if we... at least got to see something from Prime 4 at this point, hah. I am sure it will be a bit of a quiet year, but havinly only Mario remakes (even IF one of them is a big fan favorite) on the horizon, + the mythical Prime, just makes it hard to be excited. Just showing Prime would do a lot, hah.
I hope we get a nice Normal Direct in May. Gimme Prime 4 reveal and at least one other big/bigish game (Dee Kay maybe) and I'll be happy.
 
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